Week 15 Lookahead Lines/ BetOnline Openers and Discussion

Wow, just heard a crazy stat about NFL quarterbacks in their first start at Mile high Stadium. A laundry list of great names including Brady Ben Rogers Montana etc. have all lost and had horrible stats. Welcome Baker Mayfield Hey Sammy, let’s see how he does. I’ll be on Denver
 
I tend to agree this could be a letdown spot for the Cowboys. Matchup wise though its not a whole lot different than the Eagles. QB has some mobility but is generally a pocket passer. Big weapon in the red zone is an athletic tight end, Dallas solved that last week by putting Byron Jones on him. Basically one deep threat receiver to account for and a limited running game. Cowboys losses have all come to more mobile QBs (Wilson, Mariota, A Smith, Cam, Watson).

Offensively I think they'll be a little careful with playing Martin and Smith on the O-line, and we won't see 40 touches from Zeke anytime soon. Colts did a heckuva job with Nuk last week, so they know how to slow down a #1 WR. Could be a day to get some chemistry going with Gallup.

Cowboys need to win but then again......they don't. One loss from both the Eagles and Skins does the trick. Skins will be playing at the same time as +7 dogs, and the Eagles are back to Foles at a pissed off Rams in the late afternoon. Plus there's a get well home game against Tampa Bay next week. I wouldn't be surprised to see a 24-17 type loss.

Been a fun five week run though....how 'bout dem Cowboys!
 
Was that some kind of which team Dallas shouldn't lose to but will in the first round promotion?
 
2daBank said:
If Scam wasn’t looking like something really wrong w him I’d say almost a given panthers get saints in one of these 2 they gonna play. But man something gotta be wrong w sCam doesn’t it? He looks worse than normal, and he played incredibly well in that loss to Seattle imo, since then something been way way wrong!! He been awful since that game.
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a lot of people think he's hurt

raems said:
I think the Browns are going to whoop the Broncos ass. They’ve been one of the best teams in the nfl since Hue got fired, bad turnover luck in Houston still has them flying under the radar. They’re pushing to finish above .500 based on quotes and will definitely show up ready in a national night game.

Without their best offensive player and easily best corner, Denver is a shell of themselves. I expect this to be the game that seals Vance’s fate.
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i played +3 as I thought we might see CLE favored

C-MAN said:
Wow, just heard a crazy stat about NFL quarterbacks in their first start at Mile high Stadium. A laundry list of great names including Brady Ben Rogers Montana etc. have all lost and had horrible stats. Welcome Baker Mayfield Hey Sammy, let’s see how he does. I’ll be on Denver
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the poor records in first starts in DEN for HOFers doesn't really explain why they're favored when they fall behind 21-0 @SF and barely escape with wins against teams like OAK

VirginiaCavs said:
Cap a little cheap imo adding in the Jags who also let Dallas sans Amari pass all over them the week after but also mentioning Bengals game when Chargers were probably looking ahead had foot off gas pedal with lead
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LAC really struggled with CIN in a game they had to win to remain in the division race. If not for that jump offsides to set up for the 62-yarder at the end of the 1H they might have lost

Johnnyonthespot said:
Jets have a few important questionable. Big win last week. Darnold is very competitive. I have them in a 1st half play but as Austinhous pointed out O'Brien always loses both halves if that's how it is going cuz he can't adjust well imo.

So Jets ats and ml full game if Crowell and enunwa play for me
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I liked Darnold at USC, but i don't see making a play based on him because he has performed pretty poorly this year. O'Brien may not be great, but his DL will be in Darnold's face from the opening kickoff and all Bowles knows how to do is blitz. The HOU OL is a problem, but Watson is mobile and that will leave the secondary on quite a few islands if NYJ can't get home and they can't keep up on the scoreboard without D/ST help

P-Unit said:
well if you can't follow directions, how in-demand will you be? He's really hurt his reputation with this performance. Team is full of talent and he didn't get the most out of it when it mattered.
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it seemed like a bad fit. Bringing in a guy based on a passing attack that won the super bowl and then neutering him with run demands is probably addition by subtraction. Whichever organization ignores this year's poor results and hires him is probably going to make out like a bandit here
 
I enjoy situations like the next guy but not sure the egg laid in Jax won't sting/motivate Indy for a few weeks regardless of situation although end of day anything close they will struggle to ice the game with zero effectiveness running
 
P-Unit said:
well if you can't follow directions, how in-demand will you be? He's really hurt his reputation with this performance. Team is full of talent and he didn't get the most out of it when it mattered.
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If the prospective new employers aren’t stuck in the old school conservative mentality, they probably wouldn’t see his not following directions as much of anything when those directions are detrimental to winning in today’s NFL.

In other words, if the prospective new HC agrees with him philosophically, then him not following directions to call a much more conservative game plan probably won’t be a deal breaker.
 
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P-Unit said:
If you've watched their games the past month, the play calling has been atrocious. Is that the QB that can't execute (along with OL, etc.? Yes, I think that's part of it, but the play calling has been vanilla, predictable, and downright shitty for a while. And apparently he doesn't listen to his HC on how to run the ship. Not sure what the deal is because it started off really well. Maybe that's the kiss of death - they showed they could be elite and then have shit the bed since.
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P, their O-Line is bottom 10 of the league bad, wouldn’t you say?

Zimmer is a Parcells disciple and wants things done his way or else...he’s also a guy still calling the defensive sets and basically looking for a guy to run the offense and stay out of the D’s way (so I perceive it from the outside).

Here’s the thing...how the fuck are you going to be a smash mouth team when you have a shitty O Line that can’t pass block for shit and maybe only slightly better run block? You paid a QB 3/84 and have a top 5 WR tandem (and a TE that has proven he can at LEAST be serviceable). What kind of offense does Zimm want? You start running on every first down and you get the Jets offense. And that’s a god damn disaster.

Think their OL is absolutely killing them right now and Flip became the scapegoat. He’s a next wave of analytics guy with what he wants to run it seems...horrific matchup with a head coach wanting to win games 17-14.

I’d hire Flip as the Jets next HC in 2 fucking seconds. The problem with these one side of the ball Defensive HC is that the league is based on offense now. All the rules and new thought processes on offense are based on passing first to open the run, not the other way around.

Think it’s a super bad call Vikes fired him...you can’t beat anyone with a line so poor. And it’s a damn shame because the defense is getting wasted and the QB is being exposed for being overrated (and overpaid) as hell right now.
 
I believe P Manning in his prime would be elated to go .500 given the pass blocking and Vikes running game. Hell I don't even know if Cousins is overrated, underrated, good, bad, mediocre...this season taught nothing. So guess that's what next season is for?

Zimmer is a stooge, odd I was a pretty big fan of his a month and a half ago, but he's too much a loose cannon and been acting an idiot the last month
 
KJ said:
I enjoy situations like the next guy but not sure the egg laid in Jax won't sting/motivate Indy for a few weeks regardless of situation although end of day anything close they will struggle to ice the game with zero effectiveness running
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playing for a playoff berth should be more than enough
 
Washington at Jax is a game that could set back offensive theory 50 years. I'm not sure they can set that total low enough. Sanchize vs Kessler. Good grief.

I think you could take TT under for Wash, Jax and Zona and go 2-1 at worst. All have horrid offenses right now.
 
Hulu said:
Washington at Jax is a game that could set back offensive theory 50 years. I'm not sure they can set that total low enough. Sanchize vs Kessler. Good grief.

I think you could take TT under for Wash, Jax and Zona and go 2-1 at worst. All have horrid offenses right now.
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Just a matter of which defense shows up. Both were absolutely pasted by Barkley and Henry last week. Do they care to tackle or give effort, will it matter. Then, bad offense in my history of betting under leads to points with turnovers, safeties, pick 6 and great field position for other team. Good god that is a horrible qb matchup though and both o lines are dead. Stay far away game. Tom Coughlin may be coaching by halftime
 
D-Woww said:
KC/Chargers game total now 53.5. Based on the propensity for TNF overs to hit, I think this is a pretty good bet.

Denver and the altitude has a real weird home field advantage. Part of me wants to take the Browns because believe it or not, they could still win the division, but this feels like a very bad atmosphere for Baker and a very young team. The Browns have games like yesterday where there is real room for excitement about them, but they are still finding their way. I think they struggle to put up points in this one and Denver wins something along the lines of 23-16

bounce back spot for Houston, Jets are really bad despite a win today. I think I like the Texans at under a TD but I do hate laying points on the road

8 points is a lot for a team like Baltimore to lay with their run first offense but my god, jameis is going to throw at least 2 ints.

GB/Chicago is a good one, still love playing the bears as a dog/under fg fav but still have trouble laying over a fg with them bc I do think their offense is limited

Man, imagine being told after Detroit beat the Pats that week 15 buffalo would be 2.5 favortes against them. I like how the bills have been playing but this is a stay away

Sheesh, this card is ugly

Dallas getting 3 is begging for dallas money and they will get it. definitely will be over 70% on them.

Jags season is done but their defense is still very capable of shutting out Washington. lowest total of the year too. Washington team total under maybe?

Steelers will win this week...potential big play

I don't think that the Eagles trip to LA will end much different than their trip to NO. Especially with the Rams off a real bad road performance, now they get to go back home. I haven't bet against the eagles in my life. That may change this week.

Since nothing makes sense anymore, this NO/Car game has a feel of one the Panthers will somehow win. If nothing else, they can keep it close. Definitely gonna like the points in that one
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Gotta disagree 100 percent here.
2 reasons:
Saints have been OTR and I’m sure are ready for Dome sweet Dome.

Drew Brees. Monday Night Football. SuperDome........peep the history.

I think this may be a thrashing......
 
Johnnyonthespot said:
So funny to me

Kirk, Alex and Case are/were like clones. These trades were silly. Different degrees of average. Feel terrible for Alex, he was the best of the 3 imo.
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IMO these 3 shouldnt be mentioned in the same sentence. Smith by FAR the best of the 3. Would love to see how he'd do with Minnesota's offensive talent. There's no comparison here.
 
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twinkie13 said:
Gotta disagree 100 percent here.
2 reasons:
Saints have been OTR and I’m sure are ready for Dome sweet Dome.

Drew Brees. Monday Night Football. SuperDome........peep the history.

I think this may be a thrashing......
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im coming around on this. this is why I post initial thoughts and let it simmer throughout the week. I really think cam is hurt. could absolutely see you being right. this may be a lay off game or mccaffrey props only or somethin
 
D-Woww said:
im coming around on this. this is why I post initial thoughts and let it simmer throughout the week. I really think cam is hurt. could absolutely see you being right. this may be a lay off game or mccaffrey props only or somethin
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It’s Cam’s shoulder, Dan. It’s shot for sure. Look at the depth and strength of his throws and where they’re going. Nothing beyond 15 yards. Hell, twice now Riverboat Ron has brought Heinecke in just to throw Hail Mary passes at the end of the half. Cam I wouldn’t be surprised gets surgery the week after the season...0% Chance his shoulder is good. Call him a lot of things, but that SOB is tough, he knows he’s limited right now...which also leads to why/how so much of the offense has been run right through CMC. Just think the Panthers are a wounded duck right now. Saints can attack them in any way they want with their strengths IMO
 
It’s hard to beat the same 2x in the same season and it all comes down to which D will show up tonight. KC has owned the Chargers as of late at home and Rivers will have to show up and minimize his mistakes. Even if Bosa can put pressure on the QB, Malhomes is deadly on the scrambles and Chiefs runs a lot of motion after the ball is snap...so can the Chargers cover the open areas?
 
twinkie13 said:
Gotta disagree 100 percent here.
2 reasons:
Saints have been OTR and I’m sure are ready for Dome sweet Dome.

Drew Brees. Monday Night Football. SuperDome........peep the history.

I think this may be a thrashing......
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Game is in Carolina I believe

So pumped for tonight....Berry returns, Tony G night, red on red. LETS GO.
 
D-Woww said:
yup. if u watched sunday, he left the game and then came back in. he was clearly limping. think there is a decent chance he is playing as a decoy tonight. may look to play under props for him
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Dr Chao says he will be fine. Gave a great explanation of how heel injury effects walking (why he limps when he walks) but wont effect running as he is a sprinter and uses toes to push off (why he was able to be effective with injury last week). Also noted how so many of his routes are go routes or crossers which should aide him fine, just dont look for many come back routes etc. If he can still run as fast and Mahomes can throw it as far as he can I dont see it being an issue, based on the Dr advice.
 
aplous said:
Game is in Carolina I believe

So pumped for tonight....Berry returns, Tony G night, red on red. LETS GO.
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Its all I’ve thought about since the game ended Sunday. This game is the season in my opinion. I am not confident about going up to Seattle next week. Wrap it up here and let’s get homefield. Wish I was going. Already sold my playoff game 1 tickets and will be there if we make the AFC Championship. GL to us aplous
 
Low scoring game imo, ball control by SD to the max with occasional exploiting defensive backfield but back to clock running. Berry also obviously a big add for defense if for no other reason than early emotion. Short week, very possible these two teams meet up in the divisional round of the playoffs, should be a fairly vanilla game plan for both where both are trying to win it in the 4th quarter I believe. May well come down to either kicker.

No rush to bet the unders as I expect the line to only go up if anything but will be monitoring throughout the day
 
Walt Anderson calling game tonight, might have small bias to home and under.

13+ wind that will feel cold blowing at weird angle

FO has KC -4 as line
 
KJ said:
Low scoring game imo, ball control by SD to the max with occasional exploiting defensive backfield but back to clock running. Berry also obviously a big add for defense if for no other reason than early emotion. Short week, very possible these two teams meet up in the divisional round of the playoffs, should be a fairly vanilla game plan for both where both are trying to win it in the 4th quarter I believe. May well come down to either kicker.

No rush to bet the unders as I expect the line to only go up if anything but will be monitoring throughout the day
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I definitely feel like this is an under game. Given the weather and the RB situations for both teams, with a windy forecast passing will be difficult too
 
Eric Berry's influence on the run will be felt. He's not going to play every snap tonight but this will be the worst corps of RB they have faced all year.. As i mentioned earlier somewhere, I feel like KC will give give and give more to LA and then come the Red Zone, they will clamp down and send the heat. They employ this strategy very often at home in these types of games.

LA benefits if the wind dies down and he can hit Allen and Gates (yes Gates.. he kills us regardless of age)
 
Cap, you know this game better than most, that's for sure. What you say sounds spot on.
Melvin Gordon is huge Q as well as NT Mebane and T Barksdale. Hard to back chargers but Rivers is a madman
 
Johnnyonthespot said:
Cap, you know this game better than most, that's for sure. What you say sounds spot on.
Melvin Gordon is huge Q as well as NT Mebane and T Barksdale. Hard to back chargers but Rivers is a madman
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I think that Philip Rivers is a Hall of Famer. I hate his face and hate playing against him, but as the kids say "game respects game". This dude has never gotten the breaks so many other QBs have gotten. He's been cursed with poor coaching (minus Marty), injuries every year, and just some awful awful luck over the years. Cant stand him but he belongs among the great QBs of the last 25 years. Hate but secretly love him as a player.
 
Capaholic said:
Its all I’ve thought about since the game ended Sunday. This game is the season in my opinion. I am not confident about going up to Seattle next week. Wrap it up here and let’s get homefield. Wish I was going. Already sold my playoff game 1 tickets and will be there if we make the AFC Championship. GL to us aplous
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How do you like the Chiefs D tonight to sack and turnover Phyllis? (selfish fantasy question as i debate KC or ATL D) Hate players on TNF, but KC D seems to step up more at home/under the lights and get themselves a defense/ST td.
 
detroit187 said:
How do you like the Chiefs D tonight to sack and turnover Phyllis? (selfish fantasy question as i debate KC or ATL D) Hate players on TNF, but KC D seems to step up more at home/under the lights and get themselves a defense/ST td.
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The home/away splits on D are striking.. I think especially with the possibility of poor weather, the Chiefs D/ST is not a bad start.
 
Capaholic said:
The home/away splits on D are striking.. I think especially with the possibility of poor weather, the Chiefs D/ST is not a bad start.
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Thx, since you are on point all year, would you rather your KC D tonight or ATL D vs Ari (sorry this is fantasy question but I have Cap's attention for a sec) I'll hang up lol
 
detroit187 said:
Thx, since you are on point all year, would you rather your KC D tonight or ATL D vs Ari (sorry this is fantasy question but I have Cap's attention for a sec) I'll hang up lol
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I think you have two good defensive matchups... I honestly would prob go Atlanta fantasy wise.. Arizona is a joke right now
 
I think we are in Rivers head. 9 in a row and he’s had some awful games at Arrowhead. Allen will get his for sure and I don’t think they have the stones to stay committed to the run (which we can’t stop). Wind won’t play much of a factor IMO. Worried about Butker he looked awful last week and has missed some XP’s. Fairly confident we get enough stops to win. Perryman and Mebane out both big losses for them.
 
detroit187 said:
Thx, since you are on point all year, would you rather your KC D tonight or ATL D vs Ari (sorry this is fantasy question but I have Cap's attention for a sec) I'll hang up lol
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You know we have a fantasy football sub-forum right?

Anyhow just consider Arizona's offense. Thee rookie o-linemen, another signed off the street. Christian Kirk now on IR. Rookie quarterback pushed into the starting role. Running back totally ineffective. On the road, east coast, early start time. I don't care if they're facing Georgia Tech. Their offense is a complete shit show. Detroit had lost like 8 in a row in Arizona before going there and winning on the strength of their defense!
 
VirginiaCavs said:
You know we have a fantasy football sub-forum right?

Anyhow just consider Arizona's offense. Thee rookie o-linemen, another signed off the street. Christian Kirk now on IR. Rookie quarterback pushed into the starting role. Running back totally ineffective. On the road, east coast, early start time. I don't care if they're facing Georgia Tech. Their offense is a complete shit show. Detroit had lost like 8 in a row in Arizona before going there and winning on the strength of their defense!
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Man, half the time if you just STFU and realized what I said, you'd be way better off. As your analysis is appreciated, even if its in the same thread you just chastized me for posting in. Which I already recognized and chastized myself but did it for the sole purpose of connecting with Cap, as I alluded to.
 
D-Woww said:
yup. if u watched sunday, he left the game and then came back in. he was clearly limping. think there is a decent chance he is playing as a decoy tonight. may look to play under props for him
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Didn’t he hurt his wrist at some point during last weeks game as well? Think that was him who was on sideline with trainers messing w wrist.
 
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