Week 15 Lookahead Lines/ BetOnline Openers and Discussion

Capaholic

Capaholic

Proud Member of Chiefs Nation
Number to the left is the lookahead from Westgate LV. Right is BOL opener. Lines have already moved a bit. Buff a big 4 point mover.

KC. -4/ -3.5
Houston -7/-6.5
Denver -6 /- 4.5
Minn -8.5/ -8
Cincy -4.5/ -3.5 +100
Baltimore -7/ -7 -115
Indy pk/ -2.5 -130
Detroit pk/ -2 (Buff now favored by as many as 2.5)
Chicago -6/ -4 -120
NYG -1.5/ -2.5
Jax -6.5 /-7
Atlanta -7.5/ -9 -105
Seattle -7/-5.5
Pitt -1.5 / OFF
LAR -7.5 /-8.5 -115
New Orleans -6.5/ -6.5
 
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Houston should bounce back. I was planning on pounding Pitt but with NE losing, Pitt losing and Ben getting banged up, who knows. NE getting points now attractive. Ravens definite teaser candidate for me.
 
Not sure Jax should be laying points to anyone going to go tt under there bc its kessler back-up o linemen and no name wide receivers! 6 points vs colts then 9 points
 
KC/Chargers game total now 53.5. Based on the propensity for TNF overs to hit, I think this is a pretty good bet.

Denver and the altitude has a real weird home field advantage. Part of me wants to take the Browns because believe it or not, they could still win the division, but this feels like a very bad atmosphere for Baker and a very young team. The Browns have games like yesterday where there is real room for excitement about them, but they are still finding their way. I think they struggle to put up points in this one and Denver wins something along the lines of 23-16

bounce back spot for Houston, Jets are really bad despite a win today. I think I like the Texans at under a TD but I do hate laying points on the road

8 points is a lot for a team like Baltimore to lay with their run first offense but my god, jameis is going to throw at least 2 ints.

GB/Chicago is a good one, still love playing the bears as a dog/under fg fav but still have trouble laying over a fg with them bc I do think their offense is limited

Man, imagine being told after Detroit beat the Pats that week 15 buffalo would be 2.5 favortes against them. I like how the bills have been playing but this is a stay away

Sheesh, this card is ugly

Dallas getting 3 is begging for dallas money and they will get it. definitely will be over 70% on them.

Jags season is done but their defense is still very capable of shutting out Washington. lowest total of the year too. Washington team total under maybe?

Steelers will win this week...potential big play

I don't think that the Eagles trip to LA will end much different than their trip to NO. Especially with the Rams off a real bad road performance, now they get to go back home. I haven't bet against the eagles in my life. That may change this week.

Since nothing makes sense anymore, this NO/Car game has a feel of one the Panthers will somehow win. If nothing else, they can keep it close. Definitely gonna like the points in that one
 
Really tough spot for kc after that physical ass game vs ravens. Normally think this thu night garbage huge adv to home team but not so sure this week. I have a live teaser from tonight’s game left with chargers +10. Thought I might look for middle but man ravens really beat kc up in that game (hell of a game btw, I thought one best of year!).
 
D-Woww said:
KC/Chargers game total now 53.5. Based on the propensity for TNF overs to hit, I think this is a pretty good bet.

Denver and the altitude has a real weird home field advantage. Part of me wants to take the Browns because believe it or not, they could still win the division, but this feels like a very bad atmosphere for Baker and a very young team. The Browns have games like yesterday where there is real room for excitement about them, but they are still finding their way. I think they struggle to put up points in this one and Denver wins something along the lines of 23-16

bounce back spot for Houston, Jets are really bad despite a win today. I think I like the Texans at under a TD but I do hate laying points on the road

8 points is a lot for a team like Baltimore to lay with their run first offense but my god, jameis is going to throw at least 2 ints.

GB/Chicago is a good one, still love playing the bears as a dog/under fg fav but still have trouble laying over a fg with them bc I do think their offense is limited

Man, imagine being told after Detroit beat the Pats that week 15 buffalo would be 2.5 favortes against them. I like how the bills have been playing but this is a stay away

Sheesh, this card is ugly

Dallas getting 3 is begging for dallas money and they will get it. definitely will be over 70% on them.

Jags season is done but their defense is still very capable of shutting out Washington. lowest total of the year too. Washington team total under maybe?

Steelers will win this week...potential big play

I don't think that the Eagles trip to LA will end much different than their trip to NO. Especially with the Rams off a real bad road performance, now they get to go back home. I haven't bet against the eagles in my life. That may change this week.

Since nothing makes sense anymore, this NO/Car game has a feel of one the Panthers will somehow win. If nothing else, they can keep it close. Definitely gonna like the points in that one
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If Scam wasn’t looking like something really wrong w him I’d say almost a given panthers get saints in one of these 2 they gonna play. But man something gotta be wrong w sCam doesn’t it? He looks worse than normal, and he played incredibly well in that loss to Seattle imo, since then something been way way wrong!! He been awful since that game.
 
Ekeler in concussion protocol and Melvin did not practice Monday. Chargers could be down to #3 RB Jackson who's only touched the rock 32 times this year. Chargers use their RBs a lot especially in the passing game. Would be a real question mark.
 
VirginiaCavs said:
Ok...reason?
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Just think they the better team quite frankly. Donks run d numbers been improving a lot last 3 weeks but they Havnt had teams stick w the run against them, Steelers only gave Conner 12 carries, bungals pretty similar w mixon, both guys had good ypc just didn’t gst enough touches. I think both run games will have success here, as much as it pains me to say it I’ll take baker over case. Oh and after watching kittle just murder Donks in 1st half last week I can’t help but think Njoku could have a monster game.
 
Gandolf said:
Ekeler in concussion protocol and Melvin did not practice Monday. Chargers could be down to #3 RB Jackson who's only touched the rock 32 times this year. Chargers use their RBs a lot especially in the passing game. Would be a real question mark.
Click to expand...

Didn’t know that, certainly not good for them.. Jackson looked like a bad ass in that steeler game, just way he ran was impressive, I’d guess they lose a ton in the passing game w him tho!
 
Vikings are laying 8 to a team w a pulse?? Unless fish just have a huge letdown I find it hard to believe they can’t play w minny, don’t see minny offense lighting them up.
 
2daBank said:
Rams outta hand Philly a big ol ass whipping.
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as said earlier, this may be the first time in my life I have bet against my birds. the ONLY thing that gives me a little hope is they are still .5 games back of a wild card, so they technically still have something to play for. but I really don't see how this ends much differently than the game they played in New Orleans, Rams should score at will
 
I think the Browns are going to whoop the Broncos ass. They’ve been one of the best teams in the nfl since Hue got fired, bad turnover luck in Houston still has them flying under the radar. They’re pushing to finish above .500 based on quotes and will definitely show up ready in a national night game.

Without their best offensive player and easily best corner, Denver is a shell of themselves. I expect this to be the game that seals Vance’s fate.
 
Also laying more than 3 on the road with Houston’s o line is a straight no go. Can’t lersonally justify ever laying real points on the road with an oline that bad.
 
Cowboys have a division locked up and won 2highly emotional games. Don’t expect them to beat the Colts in a 1pm road game that means a hell of a lot more to the home team.
 
This is what I wrote 3 months ago and I still hold it to be true in my opinion.... Idc how beat up they are, KC 100 needs this game and then can take ten days off and lose in Seattle for all they care.:

Sep 5, 2018
#18
I'll add this re: KC-LAC

To me there is no question that LA is the better team. However....

And this is not me the fan speaking.... I think KC's offense is right there with Pitt, LAR and a select few in the top tier at full strength. I don't see Mahomes making the mistakes people think he will make... I do like the over quite a bit..

LAC has prob been the better team the last few times they have played as well. I also remember being in Foxboro on opening night last year in a game in which KC was given zero shot of winning.... Their game plan was miles ahead of New England's.

Say what you will about Fat Andy... This team will schematically be ready for Anthony Lynn, I assure you of that. They begin working on AFC West scouting months before any of the other teams and have done so since Reid arrived. LAC very well may play to their potential, but I don't think it's the slam dunk that some are making it out to be.


That was obv for Week 1's game.... And I want people to come visit this Friday morning: LAC will move the ball down the field... Chiefs will give them room to pass down the field. And when they get inside the 20, shit will lock down. LAC will come away with too many 3's and Rivers will make that one mistake he shouldnt that will cost them. LAC is the number 7 pass defense. Mahomes has played Denver (#2) twice, Cleveland #4, Baltimore #5, Jacksonville #6, Rams #8.

Stats? 165-248 66.5% 2150 yards, (358 per game) 16 TD 8 INT. I think he will be fine against the Chargers who let Jeff Driskell move the ball fairly well the other day.
 
Cap a little cheap imo adding in the Jags who also let Dallas sans Amari pass all over them the week after but also mentioning Bengals game when Chargers were probably looking ahead had foot off gas pedal with lead
 
VirginiaCavs said:
Cap a little cheap imo adding in the Jags who also let Dallas sans Amari pass all over them the week after but also mentioning Bengals game when Chargers were probably looking ahead had foot off gas pedal with lead
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Cheap? Does their ranking not include that game? Just wondering.

And the Chargers have no room to be looking ahead to anyone. They were outgained by the Bengals and a 2 pt conversion away from potential OT.

Disagree with your assessment of me being cheap. Took the stats. Reported them.
 
Capaholic said:
Cheap? Does their ranking not include that game? Just wondering.

And the Chargers have no room to be looking ahead to anyone. They were outgained by the Bengals and a 2 pt conversion away from potential OT.

Disagree with your assessment of me being cheap. Took the stats. Reported them.
Click to expand...

Yes you're quite correct to say that it does but to encapsulate the Jags' pass D in a ranking is extremely misleading because it doesn't capture how hugely inconsistent they've been from week to week. I mean, you surely don't think Derrick Henry > Eddie Georgie cause of last week? You reported the stats in a certain way to your favor.

Well obviously the Chargers are a shitty team because they let the Bengals hang around. Or maybe it was a classic lookahead spot?

While talking about spots, obviously the Vikings are way worse than the Bills. Obviously.
 
P-Unit said:
Thank god.
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all of philly is calling for him to come back to run our offense. was he really bad in Minnesota or has cousins been terrible, bc from an outsiders perspective, it seemed like he was the issue and flip was scapegoated

either way, we want him back here
 
Seriously if Zimmer went to DeFillippo and told him he must run more last week, it's like he said fuck it, okay. Called it from the gun at the GL and this is who we actually are as a talent pool in the running game on short yardage. Dalvin speed to the edge is negated at the GL, and that's all the running game really has. DeFillippo will have no problems finding a gig, almost like he was ready to check out

Zimmer has seemed aloof recently
 
Sounds like DeFillippo and Zimmer were a bad match. Zimmer wants to run all the time and DeFillippo wants an aggressive passing attack. Either way I don't see DeFillippo getting a head coaching job for next season after getting canned in Minnesota.
 
raems said:
I think the Browns are going to whoop the Broncos ass. They’ve been one of the best teams in the nfl since Hue got fired, bad turnover luck in Houston still has them flying under the radar. They’re pushing to finish above .500 based on quotes and will definitely show up ready in a national night game.

Without their best offensive player and easily best corner, Denver is a shell of themselves. I expect this to be the game that seals Vance’s fate.
Click to expand...

Totally agree. My fav dog of the weekend.
 
I think the Rams unleash hell against Philly on Sunday night. Rams coming off their worst performance of the year and Philly just lost what was basically an elimination game at Dallas. Going to be tough to come back from that and go cross country and keep up with LAR. That's all built into the number but I'm expecting DD win.
 
So funny to me

Kirk, Alex and Case are/were like clones. These trades were silly. Different degrees of average. Feel terrible for Alex, he was the best of the 3 imo.
 
Jets have a few important questionable. Big win last week. Darnold is very competitive. I have them in a 1st half play but as Austinhous pointed out O'Brien always loses both halves if that's how it is going cuz he can't adjust well imo.

So Jets ats and ml full game if Crowell and enunwa play for me
 
Johnnyonthespot said:
Jets have a few important questionable. Big win last week. Darnold is very competitive. I have them in a 1st half play but as Austinhous pointed out O'Brien always loses both halves if that's how it is going cuz he can't adjust well imo.

So Jets ats and ml full game if Crowell and enunwa play for me
Click to expand...

Jets don't adjust well either.
 
D-Woww said:
all of philly is calling for him to come back to run our offense. was he really bad in Minnesota or has cousins been terrible, bc from an outsiders perspective, it seemed like he was the issue and flip was scapegoated

either way, we want him back here
Click to expand...
If you've watched their games the past month, the play calling has been atrocious. Is that the QB that can't execute (along with OL, etc.? Yes, I think that's part of it, but the play calling has been vanilla, predictable, and downright shitty for a while. And apparently he doesn't listen to his HC on how to run the ship. Not sure what the deal is because it started off really well. Maybe that's the kiss of death - they showed they could be elite and then have shit the bed since.
 
KJ said:
Seriously if Zimmer went to DeFillippo and told him he must run more last week, it's like he said fuck it, okay. Called it from the gun at the GL and this is who we actually are as a talent pool in the running game on short yardage. Dalvin speed to the edge is negated at the GL, and that's all the running game really has. DeFillippo will have no problems finding a gig, almost like he was ready to check out

Zimmer has seemed aloof recently
Click to expand...
well if you can't follow directions, how in-demand will you be? He's really hurt his reputation with this performance. Team is full of talent and he didn't get the most out of it when it mattered.
 
P-Unit said:
well if you can't follow directions, how in-demand will you be? He's really hurt his reputation with this performance. Team is full of talent and he didn't get the most out of it when it mattered.
Click to expand...

Maybe Zimmer just demanded a conservative offense and they clashed. I really have no idea what caused the rift but I have seen the defensive minded head coach stifle a pass happy offensive coordinator too many times to dismiss that as a real possibility.
 
brewers888 said:
Maybe Zimmer just demanded a conservative offense and they clashed. I really have no idea what caused the rift but I have seen the defensive minded head coach stifle a pass happy offensive coordinator too many times to dismiss that as a real possibility.
Click to expand...
maybe, or maybe he saw the deficiencies in the OL as too big to overcome despite the talent in the passing game and maybe he was tired of the turnovers and lack of execution particularly in the red zone.

We'll never get the full truth i imagine, but it could be any number of things. One thing that's clear is that there was a chain of command that wasn't followed and a coach that didn't adjust nor did he do what he was asked to do. That's the thing that ultimately gets you fired. He refused to listen or change.
 
aplous said:
Saw a tweet today about Alex Smith's numbers last year compared to Drew Brees this year......Alex better with a much worse OL.
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He's not really effected by a bad o-line as much as other qb's bc it's not like he's looking to drop back and go long right? Just a quick release, short pass kind of guy, that doesn't require much pass protection
 
raems said:
Cowboys have a division locked up and won 2highly emotional games. Don’t expect them to beat the Colts in a 1pm road game that means a hell of a lot more to the home team.
Click to expand...

Dunno... Dallas still has to win and Indianapolis is coming off a pretty important game as well
 
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