Week 15 Discussion Thread

VirginiaCavs

VirginiaCavs

CTG Super Moderator
Staff member
Dec 17 Thu 2020

7:20 PM
301Los Angeles Chargers+3
-110		+146O 54
-110
302Las Vegas Raiders-3
-110		-166U 54
-110
Dec 19 Sat 2020

7:15 PM
343Carolina Panthers+8½
-110		+315O 51½
-110
344Green Bay Packers-8½
-110		-385U 51½
-110
Dec 20 Sun 2020

12:00 PM
341Houston Texans+7
-104		+275O 52½
-105
342Indianapolis Colts-7
-116		-330U 52½
-115
12:00 PM
351Tampa Bay Buccaneers-4
-105		-210O 50½
-110
352Atlanta Falcons+4
-115		+180U 50½
-110
12:00 PM
353New England Patriots+2½
-106		+123O 42½
-105
354Miami Dolphins-2½
-114		-143U 42½
-115
12:00 PM
355Seattle Seahawks-4½
-110		-213O 43½
-110
356Washington Football Team+4½
-110		+183U 43½
-110
12:00 PM
357Chicago Bears+3
+105		+165O 46
-110
358Minnesota Vikings-3
-125		-190U 46
-110
12:00 PM
359Jacksonville Jaguars+13½
-105
360Baltimore Ravens-13½
-115
12:00 PM
367San Francisco 49ers-2
-115		-130O 45
-115
368Dallas Cowboys+1 Markets+2
-105		+110U 45
-105
3:05 PM
349New York Jets+16½
-110		+870O 44½
-105
350Los Angeles Rams+1 Markets-16½
-110		-1500U 44½
-115
3:05 PM
363Philadelphia Eagles+5½
-110		+200O 48½
-115
364Arizona Cardinals-5½
-110		-240U 48½
-105
3:25 PM
365Kansas City Chiefs-4
-110		-205O 52
-110
366New Orleans Saints+4
-110		+175U 52
-110
7:20 PM
361Cleveland Browns-3½
-125
362New York Giants+1 Markets+3½
+105
 
Took 4 with Washington & laid 1.5 on SF. If I wasn't a Pats fan I'd be all over laying the 2.5. Pats have issues in Miami almost annually & that was even when they had good teams. Miami needs this more that the Pats do.
 
Zeke said:
Took 4 with Washington & laid 1.5 on SF. If I wasn't a Pats fan I'd be all over laying the 2.5. Pats have issues in Miami almost annually & that was even when they had good teams. Miami needs this more that the Pats do.
Click to expand...

Weren't those issues in Miami primarily Brady-related? Because the Fins were able to amass strong interior pressure which is going to unsettle a pure pocket-passer like Brady? Cam is immune to those issues.

Personally not a fan of betting based on necessity. I find that teams choke under the pressure. Also the other team may play freer. Now, if that other team is in quit mode, that's a different story. But Pats seem to be playing hard these past couple weeks at least on defense?
 
I wouldn't say they were Brady-related because they date back to well before Brady. Pats 16-38 all time in Miami. And Brady doesn't play defense.

Line seems short to me in a matchup that historically favors Miami even when they sucked & Pats were playing for seeding. Roles somewhat reversed this year. Just thought it worth pointing out.
 
I still need a winner for tonight before worrying bout next week! Lol.

I thought the over was gonna be pretty easy but now hearing wind, I don’t like that!! Anyone got some thoughts on the side? I would normally be all over ravens but last week their inability to pressure Dalton worries me.
 
for all raiders issues how easy does them -3 look on Thursday night? There no question raiders issues are vast and hard to ignore, teams have scored on over half their drives on the season against that D!!! They have allowed more 4th qrtr points than any other team has allowed in any qrtr on the season., there about 10 ways to point out how awful the raiders defense is which probably why line is so short!!

All those issues aside raiders have a pretty good ability to find ways to win late in close games, that is the total opposite of the chargers ever since lynn has took over. Outside the falcons (how amazing was it watching those 2 teams fight over who was gonna lose it at the end? Shocked it didn’t go to ot and end in a tie!! Lol)! does any team have as much talent yet just finds new ways to lose week in and week out, season after season!! Bottom line lynn a total loser as a coach, gruden a winner. Over simplified maybe, but accurate none the less. Raiders all day for me!!!!
 
2daBank said:
for all raiders issues how easy does them -3 look on Thursday night? There no question raiders issues are vast and hard to ignore, teams have scored on over half their drives on the season against that D!!! They have allowed more 4th qrtr points than any other team has allowed in any qrtr on the season., there about 10 ways to point out how awful the raiders defense is which probably why line is so short!!

All those issues aside raiders have a pretty good ability to find ways to win late in close games, that is the total opposite of the chargers ever since lynn has took over. Outside the falcons (how amazing was it watching those 2 teams fight over who was gonna lose it at the end? Shocked it didn’t go to ot and end in a tie!! Lol)! does any team have as much talent yet just finds new ways to lose week in and week out, season after season!! Bottom line lynn a total loser as a coach, gruden a winner. Over simplified maybe, but accurate none the less. Raiders all day for me!!!!
Click to expand...

Also I don't think that spread is accounting for Herbert's form right now. Idk if he's been "figured out" or what, exactly. But he seems to be struggling regardless of opponent quality.

In October, his passer rating was 122.2. In November, it was 94.8.In December, it is 68.8.
 
VirginiaCavs said:
Also I don't think that spread is accounting for Herbert's form right now. Idk if he's been "figured out" or what, exactly. But he seems to be struggling regardless of opponent quality.

In October, his passer rating was 122.2. In November, it was 94.8.In December, it is 68.8.
Click to expand...

i was kinda surprised how shitty he played vs the falcons, I know atl d has played somewhat better since firing coach but that was not a good performance after the 1st drive of game. Thought he was on his way to a great game after the 1st drive and went to total shit after. All he did was dink and dunk to ekler. Seems to me he was taking way more downfield shots and completing them early on, maybe that been the adjustment? Teams playing more 2 high safeties? That just a guess tho.
 
2daBank said:
i was kinda surprised how shitty he played vs the falcons, I know atl d has played somewhat better since firing coach but that was not a good performance after the 1st drive of game. Thought he was on his way to a great game after the 1st drive and went to total shit after. All he did was dink and dunk to ekler. Seems to me he was taking way more downfield shots and completing them early on, maybe that been the adjustment? Teams playing more 2 high safeties? That just a guess tho.
Click to expand...

Mike Williams left the game after that opening drive.
 
Took Falcons +6.

First, Falcons kicker is 97% and 100% inside 40 yds. Last 5 games 100% on FGs.
These division games in last 3 years decided by 6,13, 2, 5, 3 & 14. Brady cannot throw ball well downfield. Falcons are getting dependable on effort and performance. Ryan will fuck up when required. Falcons catching 6 at home. I'll take the key number

Lean Jets +17 @ Rams, Bears if they get to +3.5 @ Vikes, Eagles +6 and Boys +3

Lean Under 50.5 Bucs/Falcons

Have not looked at injuries or COVID yet, when I do it can change.
 
bones said:
Took Falcons +6.

First, Falcons kicker is 97% and 100% inside 40 yds. Last 5 games 100% on FGs.
These division games in last 3 years decided by 6,13, 2, 5, 3 & 14. Brady cannot throw ball well downfield. Falcons are getting dependable on effort and performance. Ryan will fuck up when required. Falcons catching 6 at home. I'll take the key number

Lean Jets +17 @ Rams, Bears if they get to +3.5 @ Vikes, Eagles +6 and Boys +3

Lean Under 50.5 Bucs/Falcons

Have not looked at injuries or COVID yet, when I do it can change.
Click to expand...

Atl kinda turning into the Chargers. If you can get some points with them feels like a decent bet, they will compete right up until winning time then blow it, perfect for catching points!! Tampa did not look any more impressive off the bye than they had previously, Vikings kicker handed them that game which why I’m assuming you talking a lot bout atl kicker? Lol

how will jets score? I know the best thing to do with nfl is often just bet oppo what ya saw week before but it really tough to have watched any that seattle game and have any confidence jets can score on rams defense which still better than the hawks imo. Wft jets team total gonna be? Can’t imagine they score more than 14, but that could certainly cover.
 
How bout houston getting 7 vs colts. Great time to play them off the beat down in Chicago. They gave colts everything they wanted 2 weeks ago. Think this be a one possession game but the houston run d a huge concern.

when I 1st went through card I circled Miami but what hoody does to rookie QBs can’t be ignored. Thing is Flores d should totally shut pats down. The under seems like a no brainer.

I can’t see Washington beating seattle. Hawks always been great going and playing East. The football team doesn’t have the ability to attack seattle secondary but that d could be all over Russ.

speaking of defenses I absolutely believe baker will finally struggle vs the Gmen d. Problem is who gonna start at qb for nyg? No way jones hammy healed so he be a sitting duck for miles Garrett and the rush! Feels like a under game.

Jets/rams should be a under also. 44? Don’t see jets score more than 10-14 at most,, I guess it comes down to will rams score more than 30? Obviously they could but why not take air out of ball and just get game over fast as possible.

ravens gonna crush jags imo. Henry just ran for 2 bills on jags, ravens could go for 300 on ground.

panthers/packers feels like a over.
 
2daBank said:
How bout houston getting 7 vs colts. Great time to play them off the beat down in Chicago. They gave colts everything they wanted 2 weeks ago. Think this be a one possession game but the houston run d a huge concern.

when I 1st went through card I circled Miami but what hoody does to rookie QBs can’t be ignored. Thing is Flores d should totally shut pats down. The under seems like a no brainer.

I can’t see Washington beating seattle. Hawks always been great going and playing East. The football team doesn’t have the ability to attack seattle secondary but that d could be all over Russ.

speaking of defenses I absolutely believe baker will finally struggle vs the Gmen d. Problem is who gonna start at qb for nyg? No way jones hammy healed so he be a sitting duck for miles Garrett and the rush! Feels like a under game.

Jets/rams should be a under also. 44? Don’t see jets score more than 10-14 at most,, I guess it comes down to will rams score more than 30? Obviously they could but why not take air out of ball and just get game over fast as possible.

ravens gonna crush jags imo. Henry just ran for 2 bills on jags, ravens could go for 300 on ground.

panthers/packers feels like a over.
Click to expand...
Also a nice prop bet might be UNDER pass yards for Lamar cause they should be up and not have to throw. Like you alluded to, Jags can't stop the run. Lamar, JK, and Edwards might get a buck a piece.
 
I don't have the most updated stats. But I recall Minshew having good numbers vs the blitz and i've seen those numbers.

Like this is only after two games:
https://twitter.com/x/status/1308609546055823360

This is the best I can find:

GamesPassing
YearAgeTmPosNo.GGSCmpAttYdsSkPktTimeBltzHrryHitsPrssPrss%ScrmYds/Scr
201923JAXQB1514122854703271332.4147552911721.2%497.1
202024JAXqb15871942982033222.57035147120.7%236.4


SplitValueCmpAttIncCmp%YdsTD1DIntRateSkYdsY/AAY/AAttYdsY/ATD1D
Time in Pocket< 2.5 seconds1141594571.70111510613104.23-217.07.420000
2.5+ seconds801395957.55918445281.219-1056.66.530000

​

PRESSURED COMPLETION %CLEAN POCKET COMPLETION PERCENTAGE
42.6%71.1%
#16#30


The Ravens blitz more than any other team (they blitz 42.3 percent of the time) and as Banky has noted before they've had trouble getting to the quarterback even against crappy pass protection. I could see a game with fewer possessions where Jags hang within that big number. As has been stated, the Ravens can and should run all over Jax. So lots of clock rolling and field goals or touchdowns on their end. And I think Gardy can respond a bit.
 
Last edited:
That one kinda feels like a game ravens do get home and Minshew has a nightmare game. Ramens having everyone up front returning Monday night, thought they got some pressure Baker just did a fantastic job escaping it, and the early play calling was excellent getting him out on the edge and using lot of misdirection to slow the pass rush. Maybe Minshew can do something similar but I don’t have any faith in the jags play callers. I think ravens roll them but not sure I can lay the points. Ravens had lot of guys in secondary get hurt Monday night didn’t they?
 
Lots of injuries tonight for me to process.

Matchup
i
i
1st Downs1626
Passing 1st downs618
Rushing 1st downs106
1st downs from penalties02
3rd down efficiency5-107-15
4th down efficiency0-02-2
Total Plays5075
Total Yards320440
Total Drives1110
Yards per Play6.45.9
Passing160312
Comp-Att13-2328-42
Yards per pass6.77.1
Interceptions thrown00
Sacks-Yards Lost1-52-14
Rushing160128
Rushing Attempts2631
Yards per rush6.24.1
Red Zone (Made-Att)2-32-4
Penalties2-105-45
Turnovers11
Fumbles lost11
Interceptions thrown00
Defensive / Special Teams TDs00
Possession25:1634:44
 
BiffTFinancial said:
2020 has been a rough year on many levels, but you gotta admit, it has a sense of humor...
Click to expand...

lol. I’m just blessed to be among the ate up enough individuals to laugh at most things :). Long as I don’t run out of drugs and booze when I want a line or drink I can make it thru anything with a smile!! ;)

how you been brother? Hope all is well?
 
2daBank said:
lol. I’m just blessed to be among the ate up enough individuals to laugh at most things :). Long as I don’t run out of drugs and booze when I want a line or drink I can make it thru anything with a smile!! ;)

how you been brother? Hope all is well?
Click to expand...
Things are awesome, Bank - thanks for asking. Finishing up my pool entry for the weekend (due at 7 pm) and easing into my Thursday night with the kids and puppy. Play in a relatively competitive hoops game with a buncha younger guys at 6 am on Fridays, so getting mentally prepared to get my ass kicked in about 12 hours. How are you, brotha?
 
BiffTFinancial said:
Things are awesome, Bank - thanks for asking. Finishing up my pool entry for the weekend (due at 7 pm) and easing into my Thursday night with the kids and puppy. Play in a relatively competitive hoops game with a buncha younger guys at 6 am on Fridays, so getting mentally prepared to get my ass kicked in about 12 hours. How are you, brotha?
Click to expand...

lol. Not nearly that active lately. I really gotta get back in gym on the weights and into some pickup games. Fell off bad during this Rona shit when my gym closed down. Only hoops I been playing maybe once a week in neighbors driveway with some 10-13 year olds!! I dominate tho!! Lol. Other than gaining 20-30 lbs and getting super lazy all is good!! Living the just scraping by dream!! Lmao.

I was bout to cash out some from a pretty good season then proceeded to get my ass kicked last few weeks. Going balls to wall with what left in account and seeing how it goes this week! Either be re-upping or cashing!!
 
If you like me and have a secret love of ugly defensive football how can the pats/fish not excite you!?!?! We all know what hoody does to inexperienced QBs! We know how terrible pats offense is!! And we know fish are starting to look like pats south when it comes to special teams and defense lead by a excellent coach!!! How the hell the offenses gonna score points here? Pats might be the worst offense of the last decade! Tua not ready to square off with a hoody d. Both special teams should keep the offenses starting with bad field position! This will be a field position game where the outcome likely decided by a turnover. This line says it no secret what pats d does to rookies cause I think fish are easily a fg or more better! How can you bet a rookie vs hoody tho? Under?
 
I’m actually shocked to see that total being 41.5!! Feels to me like a 37/38 kinda game even this day and age. It woulda been 34 15 years ago!! Lol. I could seriously see this being a high scoring coors field type baseball game when all said and done! Is sCam starting or are pats gonna go with Stidham?
 
B.A.R. said:
Haskins starting
Click to expand...

I can’t decide if that really matters? There been a few games he posted good numbers but 2 of his 3 highest outputs came in games they lost!!! He a great story but I’m not sure they better with him at qb with his 4-6 td/int and 79 rating?!! Haskins has a virtually identical rating.
 
Anyone notice Carolina’s propensity to compete OTR this season? 5-1 ATS ... winning @Atl and @LAc...giving KC, Minny, NO everything they could handle. Only double digit loss @TB and that was the game Fournette broke a long run at the end to cover.
 
Lexington 125 said:
I just want to hop on here and say I think the Broncos get blown out today. The Bills aren't looking past anyone and are playing their best football right now. why fade????
Click to expand...

must be nice having your squad being a must bet every week! I didn’t understand so many ppl trying to get cute w a Donks play. Their coach trash, drew lock trash and they wanna take that vs a great coach and maybe 2nd best qb in afc?!!??!! I forgot they were even playing nfl or id been on bills!!
 
Looks like colt McCoy back, Gmen made a big mistake forcing Jones back last week. Think they better off with McCoy and Gmen the kind of defense I think will make Baker turn back into a pumpkin! Gmen will get after him with 4 and he will make mistakes imo, I think gallman will be able to shorten the game and Gmen win a ugly one. Giants and under seems to correlate pretty well., hopefully we be able to get +7 which I think be a great bet as I think Gmen win but worst case they lose close and low. 20-17 kind of game imo.
 
If stafford plays isn’t the lions/titans game a shootout?? I could only play the dog here cause I expect lions can score points on titans suspect d.
 
I wanted to like houston and what better time to bet a team after getting crushed by the bears. It be so nfl for Texans to show well this week. Think it just a stay away fir me cause those houston cluster injuries at wr clearly a problem,,
 
What a bunch of contrasting things in the pats/fish game. Pats dont win in mia much going 2-5 last 7. some that the heat, some that this game generally doesn’t mean much to them, we all know hoody owns rookie QBs but shouldn’t Flores be unique qualified to have Tua ready? I think fish turning into pats south and have more talent. The mini bye for pats scares me but I think fish the better and they get it done. I believe under the best play here by a mile!! How either offense scores much is beyond me? Another game 20 points should win.
 
I’m with vc on the dirty birds. Who is tampa to lay 6.5? Vikings handed them that game last week, owned top and yardage. Had their kicker did his job bucs damn sure don’t cover and prob lose. They still just a collection of talent, not a team. No Jones today and he their most consistent piece. Maybe fornette runs angry after being scratched last week. Bucs prob win but can’t imagine laying a td as atl love to lose close.
 
Im betting against the bears again, cause well why not? They beat me last week, what the chances these bums win 2 in a row??? Cant be good. Vikings more talented and should win,
 
Ravens should roll Jags. They the best front runners in the league and harbaugh all bout running it up. Bully ball today!!!
 
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