WEEK 14

bookieassassin

bookieassassin

Pretty much a regular
THURS 12/1 CUSA CHAMPIONSHIP
7:00pm @ UTSA

303 NTX
304 UTSA -10'


FRI 12/2 12:00p

327 AKRON
328 BUFFALO -14


FRI 12/2 PAC 12 CHAMPIONSHIP
7:00pm @ Las Vegas

305 UTAH
306 USC -3


SAT 12/3 B12 CHAMPIONSHIP
11:00am @ JERRYWORLD

307 KANSAS ST
308 TCU -2'


SAT 12/3 MAC CHAMPIONSHIP
11:00am @ Detroit

309 TOLEDO -4
310 OHIO


SAT 12/3 SUN BELT CHAMPIONSHIP
2:30p @ Troy

311 C CARO
312 TROY -8'


SAT 12/3 AAC CHAMPIONSHIP
3:00pm @ Tulane

313 UCF
314 TULANE -2


SAT 12/3 MTW CHAMPIONSHIP
3:00pm @ Boise

315 FRESNO
316 BOISE -5


SAT 12/3 SEC CHAMPIONSHIP
3:00pm @ Atlanta

317 LSU
318 GEORGIA -16'


SAT 12/3 ACC CHAMPIONSHIP
7:00pm @ Charlotte

321 CLEMSON -9
322 N CAROLINA


SAT 12/3 BIG 10 CHAMPIONSHIP
7:00pm @ INDY

323 PURDUE
324 MICHIGAN -20




LEANS



Fresno
TROY
UTSA
Kan St
UCF
Purdue?
 
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Hey BA, your thread is always appreciated. I think USC plays Utah in the pac 12 championship?
 
Fresno +5

Not sure - but think it just drops from here...

Oddsmakers haven't adjusted enough for CC loss of QB yet - he's arguably worth 10 points ......
 
Changes or sometimes worse .....RUMORS of a change .... bring uncertainty so I don't like it.

But the only thing Tulane players are talking/ thinking about is their HC leaving (to GT). Conversely - what are UCF players thinking about? - TULANE. True, the Wave probably will still care and play hard - but this is a huge distraction that affects their PREPARATION. You play like you practice - if FOCUS is lacking, your play on game day is less than 100%.
 
BA, thanks again for another great season. Probably should say thanks every week but just know I appreciate your willingness to share your vast knowledge and skill. thanks again and GL on bowl season. And I hope you continue to post here vs. other site next year. Great to have you here.
 
lvmike32 said:
BA, thanks again for another great season. Probably should say thanks every week but just know I appreciate your willingness to share your vast knowledge and skill. thanks again and GL on bowl season. And I hope you continue to post here vs. other site next year. Great to have you here.
Click to expand...

good man LVM thanks ........... :shake:

I'll stay here
 
adding small (0.5)

Georgia -10 1H

smaller (0.25)

Purdue +10 1H

* Boilers I'll just post now - it should hit 10 soon - I'll just drop it if I can't get -115 or better . Georgia is a better 1H team / LSU better 2H - Dawgs have only given up 3 offensive TD's all year in the 1H.
 
bookieassassin said:
adding small (0.5)

Georgia -10 1H

smaller (0.25)

Purdue +10 1H

* Boilers I'll just post now - it should hit 10 soon - I'll just drop it if I can't get -115 or better . Georgia is a better 1H team / LSU better 2H - Dawgs have only given up 3 offensive TD's all year in the 1H.
Click to expand...
tremendo...winners
 
Up late crunching numbers…. Can only say mahalo for your early lines. thank you BA.
You’ll find me on Fresno, USC & UCF. 3pack
Gl Boys, Tremendo & Mahalo BA. What a fun season, thanks again, and GREAT Forum here on CTG!

Capping the Game has been Brilliant…

The best is yet to come, this Bowl Run will be a lot of fun during these holidays. Stay tuned
 
Last edited:
bookieassassin said:
adding small (0.5)

Georgia -10 1H

smaller (0.25)

Purdue +10 1H

* Boilers I'll just post now - it should hit 10 soon - I'll just drop it if I can't get -115 or better . Georgia is a better 1H team / LSU better 2H - Dawgs have only given up 3 offensive TD's all year in the 1H.
Click to expand...
Purdue still scares me with AOC not practicing in over a week. And with Corum out, Harbaugh will have no other option but to throw it. That said- 1H probably smart since 2ah adjustments by the UM D are second to none
 
tonite

like UTSA - on PAPER the Lean Green make the most sense - but this is a BIG GAME - so go with the best HC, and big game player (UTSA QB Harris) - NTX seldom plays well when it counts. 1st game was close score wise, but NTX got dominated - *with* their 2 best RB's (now hurt), they only managed 22 yds rushing. I'll wait on a late 7 ?? - or just play live or 2H

on USC - just a small play tho - one thing to keep in mind if you like UTAH - is that the calls are very likely to go USC's way, probably. Nobody hates that kinda talk more than me - I can see it happening here tho, man those P12 refs ..... :shocked:




1670012173609.png
 
bookieassassin said:
tonite

like UTSA - on PAPER the Lean Green make the most sense - but this is a BIG GAME - so go with the best HC, and big game player (UTSA QB Harris) - NTX seldom plays well when it counts. 1st game was close score wise, but NTX got dominated - *with* their 2 best RB's (now hurt), they only managed 22 yds rushing. I'll wait on a late 7 ?? - or just play live or 2H

on USC - just a small play tho - one thing to keep in mind if you like UTAH - is that the calls are very likely to go USC's way, probably. Nobody hates that kinda talk more than me - I can see it happening here tho, man those P12 refs ..... :shocked:




View attachment 70835
Click to expand...
Usc gonna roll. Very tied up with them on ML + alt lines all over the place.

UNT should be able to throw in Utsa. That said Harris is great and mean green D is trash. 45-31?
 
satnightfever05 said:
Purdue still scares me with AOC not practicing in over a week. And with Corum out, Harbaugh will have no other option but to throw it. That said- 1H probably smart since 2ah adjustments by the UM D are second to none
Click to expand...

Boilers are tough as hell in this kinda spot - Michigan is gotta be thinking down the road / not really extending the margin here, just getting the W - PLUS they know they're IN no matter what - close 1H, then Michigan pulls away
 
USC woulda scored on every possession if Williams didn't hurt his leg on the long run in the 3rd series when they kicked a fg to go up 17-3....their defense gabe them a couple stops and thats all that was necessary if CW isn't injured
 
Troy -4
Fresno +5
N Caro +7'

smaller

UCF +3'
USC -2'
Georgia -10 1H
Purdue +10 1H
Kan St ML
Buffalo -6 2H


ML dogs
Fresno
UCF
Kan St
Ohio



was waiting on a 3 with KSU - so I'll just play ML small now - maybe dumb to keep fading the Frogs (as opposed to a just PLAY them every week strategy ha) - but I've always thought KSU would win the B12, so I'll stick with it (small risk). BOL today boys - bowl thread up late today / Sunday am
 
Rusty Trombone said:
USC woulda scored on every possession if Williams didn't hurt his leg on the long run in the 3rd series when they kicked a fg to go up 17-3....their defense gabe them a couple stops and thats all that was necessary if CW isn't injured
Click to expand...

yep he looked like he was seriously injured - (maybe) shoulda come out ?
 
small play

Frogs +3' (live play at half / juiced) - Frogs -1'/2 for 2H maybe better (at -110)

KSU too beat up to close this one out - probably
 
2dawgnation2 said:
Does UNC have any chance to beat Clemson outright? Is CU playing defeated??
Click to expand...

(some) .... but not likely with that DEFENSE (SP+ #104)

For me I'm taking the team with the much better QB getting 7' - vs the team with their SEASON GOAL shattered. For Clemson it's play-offs or nothing. I'm not sold on UNC here - just like the SPOT...... :shake:
 
Thanks for the input--following along with +7.5 investment....and gamble a little on the moneyline. Ukelele flounders--Heels respond.
 
bookieassassin said:
(some) .... but not likely with that DEFENSE (SP+ #104)

For me I'm taking the team with the much better QB getting 7' - vs the team with their SEASON GOAL shattered. For Clemson it's play-offs or nothing. I'm not sold on UNC here - just like the SPOT...... :shake:
Click to expand...
TREMENDO!!! B.A. with you +8 unc... YOU ARE SPECIAL,SIR! thank you
 
kinda liking that Purdue / low scoring 1H (1H under not bad) >> then Michigan 2H
* Michigan starts slow on O & D - D makes great adjustments, really tightens up 2H

Good man PL .......... :shake:
 
Regarding this strange process of selecting the best teams, here's why there is so much bickering, frustration, anger - all that BS

BECAUSE 'VOTING' INTRODUCES BIAS - IT'S WRONG, AND GOES AGAINST OUR NATURE

When we reach a weird futuristic society, one in which you know, we take a pill instead of having sex ..... well sure don't box, or fight, just VOTE. No need to risk injury ever, just vote - like the morons we are ffs. Kansas State is sitting there going - "hey wait a fucking minute, Max Duggan the hero really? - TCU the one rewarded? - hell we just beat their ass (15 minutes from their campus btw)". There is a reason no other sport at any level, does this- it's wrong, grossly unfair, and makes no sense whatsoever.


MEANWHILE

FBS is divided into 2 divisions - P5 and G5 or whatever
* 4 conferences each / 2 divisions each - automatic 8 team play-off. Wanna have 5 instead of 4 fine - whatever works.

The team left standing is the winner - it is not decided by a few fat white guys and a chick or two.

An eggzample - (I 'blended in' Utah and Kan St to get 4 conf winners / same with Toledo/ UTSA)- guessing Utes/UTSA would win??). Irish you wanna chance to win a championship? - join a conference pompous jackasses. YES - it wouldn't come out like this probably - just using conf winners this year.

P5 Champion

Ga vs Utah
Michigan vs Clemson


G5 Champion

Tulane vs UTSA
Troy vs Fresno

awesome

ALL GAMES matter - win your conference if you expect to be rewarded. If you don't, STFU - get back to work. Every team has a reasonable expectation that they can (now or someday) win a championship, when they report in the fall. If you're Eastern Michigan - your reward on a great season won't be the WEEDEATER BOWL. It goes against our values to have NO SHOT at being rewarded.

NOTE: if you don't understand BIAS, and think you can 'check your bias in at the door' (like committee members have said yikes) - my suggestion would be to maybe educate yourself on the subject .... it will help you in your bowl handicapping .............. :shake:
 
moving SLOW on bowls boys.......early looks tho
>> wanna avoid later games, with player, coaching uncertainty

Tulane - wait till kick-off ha
Kan St - might hit early number - once Brice/ Will announce it should drop like a rock (shocked if they play)
Mizzou
UCLA - check QB 1st !!!! - 2014 last W - Narduzzi bad bowl coach
Horns - wait tho it will drop when BR declares ....
E Caro -2014 last W
GA SOUTHERN - 1st number
SDSU -
S ALA- no bowl wins / WKU off huge W L:Y
AIR FORCE - Bears huge W LY - AF big Sr class
EASTERN MICHIGAN - never won a bowl - bad L LY - SJSU in the cold
UCONN -
BOISE - NTX bad bowl team
BEAVS
FRESNO / JAKE HAENER - P12 a turrible bowl fav
BYU will murder SMU - 1st number - Ponies playing with 3rd QB?? - Rice / Mordecai likely done
Troy / UTSA why tf are they playing each other !?
Kansas - maybe best to hit 1st #
TTech
FLA ST
IRISH ? - SCaro getting too much love IMO
 
my SMU insider buddies ..... say that is likely - bu QB with broken collarbone
$$ Ponies have MISSED the cover their last 2 bowls by about 80 points ha

BYU seems to alternate big bowl efforts

2021 lost to UAB (-6') - 2020 big W - L - big W - L .......
 
bookieassassin said:
my SMU insider buddies ..... say that is likely - bu QB with broken collarbone
$$ Ponies have MISSED the cover their last 2 bowls by about 80 points ha

BYU seems to alternate big bowl efforts

2021 lost to UAB (-6') - 2020 big W - L - big W - L .......
Click to expand...
B.A. tremendo! as I read your mention!! guidance please! B Y U ?????? thank you, SIR!! AS ALWAYS , AN OUTSTANDING YEAR AND GLADTHAT YOU AREHERE!! YOUR STYLE
 
puppylove said:
B.A. tremendo! as I read your mention!! guidance please! B Y U ?????? thank you, SIR!! AS ALWAYS , AN OUTSTANDING YEAR AND GLADTHAT YOU AREHERE!! YOUR STYLE
Click to expand...

BYU hit the first number - probably

Why? - because full strength SMU would be favored, early number might be great. SMU QB has already declared for the draft - best player WR Rice should too, as (excellent) bu QB is still recovering from a broken collarbone. I would like BYU anyway. This one should *close* as BYU -7+. Oddsmakers are getting smarter tho ha (see Bama / Kan ST line) but hopefully we get a good opener.
 
Played at MB

SDSU -2'

Smaller for now (haven't dived in yet) - looks like a strong play . Aztecs have played well on the islands - HC Hoke takes bowls seriously 2 nice wins and covers. Should close 7+
 
That's a long trip for MTSU. Agree with you on SDSU, Byu, and Fresno if Haener goes.

GL this Bowl season, BA.
 
MISSED IT crap

Haeners IN - said no way he misses this opportunity

Gonna bump up SDSU to one of my top bowl plays - one unit only

added

BYU -1' large
E Mich +4' / ML ..... smaller for now

that's it for now - actual bowl thread up late tonite/tomorrow hopefully
 
Don't see many issues with SDSU

On the surface, MTS D presents issues - 'strong' run D - get pressure / penetration - strong in the RZ/3rd down. But they played a pretty weak schedule - when they played a *tough* team they got killed (Miami is talented - soft as hell).
UAB ran for 8.0/rush - WKU 4.6 - JMU 5.0 - FIU 4.4.

I DON'T like MTS with solid SR. QB (Cunningham if healthy) - but they're off a great bowl win LY vs flaky Toledo (31-24 / +10) - and HC is usually a weak bowl coach - 3-6 su/ats - only other recent bowl win vs Ark St (Blake A weaker in bowls).

I also hesitate a bit - SDSU under Hoke is off 2 nice bowl W's - BUT this is his 3rd year back - they struggled early before QB change - but O improved late - this one is important. They outgained Fresno by a nice margin - but 5 TO's ......

$$ SDSU D matches up much better vs MTS O - than the reverse. So even if MTS shows up to play, MTS will struggle to move the chains - Aztecs should be able run / wear them down 2H


lvmike32 said:
Hey BA, all my outs have SDSU at 3.5 or 4. Would you still play? Got BYU -1. thanks
Click to expand...

went up FAST - sure man, it should close 6/7 or so - recall the SU winner, has a very high % of covering this game as well. MTS should win, or get killed.
 
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