Week 14 ML Dogs

ProV1Colt

ProV1Colt

CTG Super Moderator
Staff member
Here we go.
Rivalry Weekend!

We should have some angry dogs ready to bite this weekend!

Who do we like to satisfy our Turkey Day Weekend Black Friday Couch Hangover

Let’s find some winners in Week 14!

Shoot..…

FYI

We will do a Championship Weekend ML Dog Thread and a ML Dog Bowl Edition!
 
I would potentially like:

Friday:
Virginia
Texas Tech
Kent State
Nebraska
West Virginia
Washington State (I know, but doesn't this look like the worst Washington team in years?)

Saturday:
East Carolina
Boston College
Vandy
Old Dominion
Wyoming
San Jose
Purdue
Texas A&M
Louisville
Florida State
Oregon State

Will be a busy week, but I will try and offer some insight as I think those over the next few days.
 
Ohio State @ Michigan: comparisons in pic 1 below include previous season's records, current season home record, zero losses for an opponent, week > 9, previous week's result for opponent, and opponent covering ATS the previous week. Home record is 5-1 SU and 6-0 ATS. In pic 2, I substituted home team's previous week's SU & ATS results. Record? 7-2 SU and 5-4 ATS....but ALL 3 dogs won SU!! My fav site for strength of schedule has Michigan at 39 and OSU at 36....certainly the information here suggests some conversation should be had about Michigan blowing up the current payoff scenario!!

mich-osu1.jpg

mich-osu2.jpg
 
Clemson @ USCjr: I bring this one up for discussion because, of all the dogs this week, Gamecocks have the highest gap in SOS at +10.19 power rating differential at my fav website for those sort of things....to give some reference for this number, Rice was at 8.90 last weekend. This is not any reason in and of itself to play the Gamecocks, however like I said, we should at least discuss it esp since their at +2500ML! I do remember Clemson struggling at UNC. USCjr' defense does have some front 7 that can hang in there....they completely dominated my Cats OLine and our rushing attack in our game and bear in mind we had pushed around Florida's vaunted DLine the week or so before. Gamecocks, of course, went between the hedges in Athens and won so they can matchup and hang in this game I believe. Since they're not going bowling, this will surely be their bowl game vs. a hated rival. Together with a Michigan win, a win here by the Gamecocks will throw the playoff picture into hysteria! Just saying.......
 
Okie@Okie Lite: Somewhat competing trends here....comparisons in pic 1 below include previous season's records, current season records, week > 9, previous week's result for home team, pushing ATS the previous week, and revenge factor from previous season's close loss. Comes out 4-0 SU & ATS for the home team! Pick 2 I substituted opponents previous week's SU & ATS results and numbers not so exciting....1-3 SU and 1-2-1 ATS. FWIW @booksbestfriend I always side with the home team queries when I find myself in a situation such as this. Furthermore, if KState can beat this Sooner team at home, then why not arch-rival Okie State??

okie-okiest3.jpg

okie-okiest4.jpg
 
FWIW....a 3 -team ML parlay with Michigan (+285) South Carolina (now up to +2750) and Okie State (+360) will pay 503.74 to 1 and blast the current playoff scenario into orbit!

Only if it hit of course.....
:hide:
 
JROCK1966 said:
Okie@Okie Lite: Somewhat competing trends here....comparisons in pic 1 below include previous season's records, current season records, week > 9, previous week's result for home team, pushing ATS the previous week, and revenge factor from previous season's close loss. Comes out 4-0 SU & ATS for the home team! Pick 2 I substituted opponents previous week's SU & ATS results and numbers not so exciting....1-3 SU and 1-2-1 ATS. FWIW @booksbestfriend I always side with the home team queries when I find myself in a situation such as this. Furthermore, if KState can beat this Sooner team at home, then why not arch-rival Okie State??

View attachment 44344

View attachment 44345
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I could give you a dozen or two of these to keep you off South Carolina.
 
Sort of hoping Tulane loses to SMU and they are a 6-6 team left out of the bowls somehow for losing 5 of their last 6, all of which were winnable. Certainly this would be the worst matchup for them since auburn. And they should have lost to Houston by about 10-14.

Underachieving assholes with a coach who everyone jumps on the nuts of at first opportunity.
 
RetroVK said:
Sort of hoping Tulane loses to SMU and they are a 6-6 team left out of the bowls somehow for losing 5 of their last 6, all of which were winnable. Certainly this would be the worst matchup for them since auburn. And they should have lost to Houston by about 10-14.

Underachieving assholes with a coach who everyone jumps on the nuts of at first opportunity.
Click to expand...

yeah tulane has gotten lucky to not play 2 of the big 3 in that conference till very end. first one memphis ,destroyed them. ucf was up multiple scores all game and was a bad beat, and smu i think is in the ucf/memphis class that has given them trouble.
 
Am i crazy thinking that civil war line is nuts and beavers might just pull the upset? How can ducks possibly be up for this after pissing playoff hopes away last week? Of course we love this beaver team who been so good to us but really don’t see why they won’t be able to score here? They stack up pretty well w common opponents and ducks defense has not been nearly as good as early on. I suppose I worry how beavers got destroyed by Utah but they been in practically every other game and again how can ducks be pumped for this? Yet spread going up which insane to me, I thought 18.5 was 4 points too high! Now it 19.5. I’m gonna get myself into trouble on this one. Lol.
 
Wazzou@Washington: comparisons in the pic below include previous season's records, current season records, week > 9, & previous week's results. Home record is 1-4 SU.

was-wasst.jpg
 
Texas State @ Coastal Carolina: comparisons in the pic below include previous season's records, current season records, week > 9, & previous week's results. Home record is 8-6 SU. While that record is not overly eye-popping, what makes this game have interesting dog potential is the fact the SOS gap (+5.27) is fairly large here in favor of Texas State....couple that with a very average 57% winning percentage for the home team and I believe we may have a fav here on upset alert.

Txst-cccu.jpg
 
2daBank said:
Am i crazy thinking that civil war line is nuts and beavers might just pull the upset? How can ducks possibly be up for this after pissing playoff hopes away last week? Of course we love this beaver team who been so good to us but really don’t see why they won’t be able to score here? They stack up pretty well w common opponents and ducks defense has not been nearly as good as early on. I suppose I worry how beavers got destroyed by Utah but they been in practically every other game and again how can ducks be pumped for this? Yet spread going up which insane to me, I thought 18.5 was 4 points too high! Now it 19.5. I’m gonna get myself into trouble on this one. Lol.
Click to expand...
Not sure about ML but taking the points is definitely the play.
 
2daBank said:
Am i crazy thinking that civil war line is nuts and beavers might just pull the upset? How can ducks possibly be up for this after pissing playoff hopes away last week? Of course we love this beaver team who been so good to us but really don’t see why they won’t be able to score here? They stack up pretty well w common opponents and ducks defense has not been nearly as good as early on. I suppose I worry how beavers got destroyed by Utah but they been in practically every other game and again how can ducks be pumped for this? Yet spread going up which insane to me, I thought 18.5 was 4 points too high! Now it 19.5. I’m gonna get myself into trouble on this one. Lol.
Click to expand...

I always fade teams after they are eliminated from the national championship picture so I can definitely see Oregon not showing up and losing this week.
 
Missouri’s bowl ban was just announced as being upheld. Suddenly that Arkansas game looks a bit more interesting.
 
brewers888 said:
Nothing random about Diaz losing as a huge favorite. Miami is the first team in the last 40 years to lose three times as more than a 2 td favorite and it was nearly four as they beat Central Michigan by 5 as more than a 30 point favorite.
Click to expand...
They also lost as a 5-point favorite. Note that they followed each of the three prior upset losses with a solid cover by 6+ points.
 
RetroVK said:
Sort of hoping Tulane loses to SMU and they are a 6-6 team left out of the bowls somehow for losing 5 of their last 6, all of which were winnable. Certainly this would be the worst matchup for them since auburn. And they should have lost to Houston by about 10-14.

Underachieving assholes with a coach who everyone jumps on the nuts of at first opportunity.
Click to expand...
I have to agree. Although who else will
Come and be better? Let’s not pretend like the conference isn’t good this year though
 
Tired of North Texas and Laffy in the NO Bowl for the Wave. Believe me VK, I feel the pain. Just not sure what they do. McMillan was a great get....

Reality is, this is where Lindsey Scott shoulda went. Or taken the Harvard scholly......but no: LSU to Juco to Mizzou to another transfer....I could be missing a stop
 
And SEC cannot meet all their bowl tie-in responsibilities if both Missouri and Miss State falter. What a shit conference.
 
RetroVK said:
And SEC cannot meet all their bowl tie-in responsibilities if both Missouri and Miss State falter. What a shit conference.
Click to expand...

Well. Doesn’t matter if mizzou wins they were ruled ineligible today cause the ncaa a freaking joke. I was hoping to fade them in a bowl game. Lol
 
Mississippi State has to be a back up the money truck bet then.

If Messy loses, SEC has only 7 bowl teams.
 
Mizzou@Arky: I did something a bit different in this query....I see where Missouri has lost 5 straight so I added that bit of info into this query, along with my normal comparisons, and it came back as showing 2-9 home teams with a 50% chance of winning SU. (Record 6-6). This 6-6 record includes 5 wins in 8 tries by home dogs. My gut initially told me no way Kelly Bryant allows his team to lose to such a lowly team but then I looked back at Missou's schedule and was reminded they lost at Vandy. Vandy still had a head coach and, even though they are bad, they are still playing hard for their coach....Arkansas, of course, is currently leaderless. On the flip side, even though we have discussed the reality of Missou not going bowling regardless of bowl eligibility and how it may affect their motivation this weekend. There is also the strong possibility Missou wanting to finish the season on a winning note.......

mizzo-arky.jpg
 
Kent State @ Eastern Michigan: Kent State has some potential....I did a query of away 5-6 teams vs. 6-5 teams...added in the revenge factor from last year's loss and came up with a 4-2 SU record for the away team.

ksu-emu.jpg
 
That Okie State line smells about as bad as it can. Getting 13 points, in Stillwater, against a schizo OU team with holes all over the place on defense and a QB that can beat you in many respects but can also beat his own team because, in his own words, he "sucks at ball security."

I'm not enamored with Dru Brown under center but he has a game under his belt now. And Gundy is not only not scared of OU. He embraces the chance to scheme against and beat them. Watch him throw out the kitchen sink on Saturday, and probably do it successfully.
 
UNLV @ Nevada: Pic 2 shows my "both teams with negative turnover" trend I've posted in these threads multiple times before. It has not been faring as well this season as last but UNLV is active this week. So, we have a fav here that has a propensity for turning over the ball. Pic 1 shows my normal comparisons plus revenge factor for the home team and also 3 straight wins for the home team. The SU record here is 7-1. Normally this record is enough for me to move on to other games but, since UNLV hit my other trend, I took a closer look. The average line in these similar games is -24. The only loss came from a -13 (and the lowest of the favs) line. This game's line is even lower at -7.5. A quick look at my fav site for consensus shows Nevada currently sitting at >70% which is why I say the line is bait in my last post. Furthermore, a quick look at strength of schedule shows UNLV with a slight edge at +1.45. Lastly, we have the in-state rivalry going on here between these two squads. Unless there is some important injury(s) or suspension(s) I'm unaware of then UNLV is definitely a live dog IMHO.

unlv-nev.jpg

unlv-nev2.jpg
 
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