Week 14 ML Dogs

Frank Costanza said:
That Okie State line smells about as bad as it can. Getting 13 points, in Stillwater, against a schizo OU team with holes all over the place on defense and a QB that can beat you in many respects but can also beat his own team because, in his own words, he "sucks at ball security."

I'm not enamored with Dru Brown under center but he has a game under his belt now. And Gundy is not only not scared of OU. He embraces the chance to scheme against and beat them. Watch him throw out the kitchen sink on Saturday, and probably do it successfully.
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One thing that stood out to me about the OSU at WVU game was that Gundy appeared to be fairly conservative, notably on 4th down. OSU did go for the short 4th-and-goal for TD first possession, but there were some other moments that I thought, and the one announcer, that he might normally be going for it more.

4th-goal @WV01 = TD
4th-1 @ O39 = punt (led 7-0)
4th-2 @ O33 = punt (led 7-3)
4th-1 @ WV43 = converted (trailed by 3, eventually had to punt)
4th-1 @ O46 = punt (game was tied 10-10, WV took that next drive to the lead)
4th-1 @ W05 = FG (put them up by 4)

Some of those were smart management calls being on the road vs an opponent that might be a little limited where you don't need to be so aggressive. Don't think he will be so conservative this week, given it's Bedlam.
 
JROCK1966 said:
The Nevada line looks like bait. Tell me more about UNLV please.
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UNLV crossed my mind as well, but I don't know. UNLV isn't awful bad and Nevada isn't that good, but fairly good in their kinda way. Feels like a game to me Nevada wins to recapture the cannon (UNLV won last year as 14pt dog despite trailing 0-23 and being outgained). Is Sanchez coaching out this game for Rebs?
 
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2daBank said:
Am i crazy thinking that civil war line is nuts and beavers might just pull the upset? How can ducks possibly be up for this after pissing playoff hopes away last week? Of course we love this beaver team who been so good to us but really don’t see why they won’t be able to score here? They stack up pretty well w common opponents and ducks defense has not been nearly as good as early on. I suppose I worry how beavers got destroyed by Utah but they been in practically every other game and again how can ducks be pumped for this? Yet spread going up which insane to me, I thought 18.5 was 4 points too high! Now it 19.5. I’m gonna get myself into trouble on this one. Lol.
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I agree about the line. It is hard for me to form an opinion on where I think Ducks heads might be and where they are at motivationally. I might think they will be up enough, this Oregon State team poses a challenge, they should be able to see and know that, and in a true rivalry game that both teams take as a rivalry, it means as much to the favorite as it does to the dog. I think sometimes we wrongly think that the underdog is more motivated to win a rivalry game.

If I wanted to, I could make a case that because of Oregon's loss last week and the likelihood of a playoff birth shot, they may even care about this game more than before...I mean who would want to blow a playoff chance and lose to your hated rival in the same season?

With that said, I think the point spread is totally ridiculous. Let's compare a recent game by both teams:

Washington State +14 at Oregon. Wazzou had the lead in the final minutes, Ducks had to kick game winner at buzzer.

Oregon State +10.5 at Wazzou. OreSt had the lead late and had to collapse in order for Wazzou to come from behind and win by 1 in the final secons.

Now Oregon State is +20 at Oregon?

Yes, the point spreads of previous games tell us on paper that Washington State was 6.5 points stronger PR on neutral (10.5-4HF=6.5) so you could add the 6.5 to the 14 pt line that WSt got at Oregon earlier and arrive at this 20 number.

But the PR was off for WSt at Oregon. And the PR was off for Oregon St at WSt. It was off because the games didn't play out where either favorite was all that much better.

This line I think just falls back on series history, it's one where Ducks normally crush the Beavs. There is no other way to explain why it is where it is.
 
Oregon State was 5-7 in 2014, but they only won 2 PAC12 games that year (3-0 as favorites vs nonconf).

If you go back to 2013, that Oregon St team was 6-5 entering the Civil War and would finish 7-6. That year at Oregon, Beavers were +23 and lost by 1 to an eventual 11-2 Oregon team.

Point being, Oregon State hasn't been this good in a while. The spread is not factoring that in much.
 
Oregon still has the rose bowl to play for. If they lose to Beavers and conf championship game they won't even get that as a consolation prize.
 
Frank Costanza said:
That Okie State line smells about as bad as it can. Getting 13 points, in Stillwater, against a schizo OU team with holes all over the place on defense and a QB that can beat you in many respects but can also beat his own team because, in his own words, he "sucks at ball security."

I'm not enamored with Dru Brown under center but he has a game under his belt now. And Gundy is not only not scared of OU. He embraces the chance to scheme against and beat them. Watch him throw out the kitchen sink on Saturday, and probably do it successfully.
Click to expand...
 
Two Utes said:
Oregon still has the rose bowl to play for. If they lose to Beavers and conf championship game they won't even get that as a consolation prize.
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twinkie13 said:
Wtf was in the line last week!!!
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Last week, kinda the same as this week, PAC 12 Title and perhaps some bigger opportunity beyond.

These are kids with lots of things are their mind and are often easily influence and persuaded. Good coaches can sell anything to their team to get the most out of them. It's not easy, but they could rally this week around the "still a lot to play for" mantra. It's easy for us outsiders to overlook what goes on in these locker rooms. Beating their rival (like they normally do...you know, keep them down, little brother type thing), winning the league title and going to a prestegous bowl game can still mean a lot to that team. Just because "we" think they blew their national title and playoff shot and just because the media says it doesn't mean that is what the team is thinking about.
 
I do like Oregon State (atleast ATS). Just think it is important to see the big picture rather than focusing on one narrow aspect.
 
s--k said:
I agree about the line. It is hard for me to form an opinion on where I think Ducks heads might be and where they are at motivationally. I might think they will be up enough, this Oregon State team poses a challenge, they should be able to see and know that, and in a true rivalry game that both teams take as a rivalry, it means as much to the favorite as it does to the dog. I think sometimes we wrongly think that the underdog is more motivated to win a rivalry game.

If I wanted to, I could make a case that because of Oregon's loss last week and the likelihood of a playoff birth shot, they may even care about this game more than before...I mean who would want to blow a playoff chance and lose to your hated rival in the same season?

With that said, I think the point spread is totally ridiculous. Let's compare a recent game by both teams:

Washington State +14 at Oregon. Wazzou had the lead in the final minutes, Ducks had to kick game winner at buzzer.

Oregon State +10.5 at Wazzou. OreSt had the lead late and had to collapse in order for Wazzou to come from behind and win by 1 in the final secons.

Now Oregon State is +20 at Oregon?

Yes, the point spreads of previous games tell us on paper that Washington State was 6.5 points stronger PR on neutral (10.5-4HF=6.5) so you could add the 6.5 to the 14 pt line that WSt got at Oregon earlier and arrive at this 20 number.

But the PR was off for WSt at Oregon. And the PR was off for Oregon St at WSt. It was off because the games didn't play out where either favorite was all that much better.

This line I think just falls back on series history, it's one where Ducks normally crush the Beavs. There is no other way to explain why it is where it is.
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Yea I’m certainly not basing it off hoping ducks are down, I mean I hope they are but I never know how to expect these kids to respond. Just thought interesting to talk about. Beavers stack up incredibly well w common opponents and ducks really ain’t blown many teams out I rank on level of beavers., Number seems insane to me. Could def have to do w the history. Odd as it be to us (being fans of dogs thus liking this beaver team most the conf season!) I still hear some ppl that you think would know better as garbage. Always makes me laugh.
 
That "wish list" of mine or whatever is going to be cut down quite a bit.

Nebraska makes the cut though.

Iowa has won 4 straight in the series.

Last year Nebraska only lost 28-31 with total yards essentially even at Iowa. Is this version of Iowa actually any better?

I don't think they are. In fact, I can't really find a game Iowa has played in the Big Ten I am impressed with.

Iowa outgained ILL 387-336, but ILL helped them out with 3 TOs to Iowa's 1. ILL out first downed them 20-16. Double check this, ILL outrushed them 192-79 (4.9-2.5). Iowa kicked a lot of FGs ,missed two longer ones and made 3 from the RZ, so maybe those should've been TDs. Two of their FG drives were off a fumble 9p 36y and the other was when ILL was sacked on 4th down at midfield right before HT. Iowa completed one pass and made a 45y FG.

Anyway, let's move on.

Iowa did beat Minnesota. But did so while being outgained by 141 yards! Unlike ILL, Iowa did outrush the Gophers 117-63, but Minny passed all over them - second most yards Min passed for all season; 25-39-368-1-1. Iowa D had 6 sacks, and they had 3 vs ILL, so that is something.

The Iowa Wisconsin game was really not close for 3 quarters. UW was outgaining them 211-93 HT and 322-131 up until 2min left in the 3rd Q. Then Iowa got their yards and their scores taking what was a one-sided 24-6 game to a 24-22 F.

Iowa only had 12-13 FG advantage at Northwestern? 20-0 shutout win is good and all, but only scoring 20pts on just 302 yards of O. Again with the Iowa sacks, 5 of them here.

Beat Purdue 26-20, eh, I guess Iowa did lead by 12 and 13, yards were even 362-360. Purdue fumbled twice in Iowa territory, once at the I09. PU did get a free FG out of the lone Iowa TO.

Then we are on the Penn State game, Michigan game, all that seems like forever ago.

I'm just not impressed with Iowa. I don't fear them like one might when you go against say a Wisconsin, or one of the other better teams in the B1G. They are just average, solid in some spots, solidly average in a good way. Nothing to get to excited or fearful about.

Now Nebraska, brutal.

I think people have probably made up their minds on Nebraska and with good reason, they have sucked against other average-ish or below average/bad teams (IU, PU, NW). So I guess it should be the same this week.

The Maryland game? Can't take anything from that. Other than I will say this. I do think a game like that can give the kids a little confidence back. You hit the punching bag, you execute like you are supposed to and you finally, finally see some fruits of your labor, it helps mentally.

After that, they are still the team with OL issues, QB decision making issues, kicking issues, defense issues, hanging their heads when it don't go right.

I just have some faith in this game, that it will go right. That's what you say when you can't provide any facts or figures to support a claim right? Faith.

Faith that Nebraska has some talent that can make plays, faith they have the will and the support at home. Faith they are healthier now than they have been (which is probably more fact). And faith in my judgement that Iowa isn't going to do anything that Nebraska can't handle. Other than the pass rush, that is going to be tough and if that happens often enough consistently enough, that can lead to some problems.

The Nebraska game 2 weeks ago against Wisconsin - sure Wisconsin is by far the better team. Badgers were when they played Iowa too. Against Iowa, Hawks were able to get their final score to make a once lopsided game not so lopsided. Against Nebraska, Huskers were stopped at the goal line to make the score a little more respectable (lost 21-37 instead of 28-37). Neb was actually SOD twice in the RZ and a total of 3x in Wisc territory and also missed a FG from the 34 (lots of missed FGs this year). Wisconsin ran for 320 against Nebraska, but how about Neb running for 270? Neb outgained them 493-482 (8.2-7.3). Neb was 50% 3rd down to Wisk's 33%. Wisc got 4 sacks, yup, that is going to be a problem. Wisc did ret KO for TD and kicked 2 FGs from RZ.

I think I have seen a little more of the offensive potential out of Nebraska since their late season bye week. They might not have all their goals left to play for, but they have one more left and after not going to a bowl game in '17 or '18, they are hungry for this one. That alone won't make it easy, but faith tells me they will have a shot. GBR
 
Frank Costanza said:
That Okie State line smells about as bad as it can. Getting 13 points, in Stillwater, against a schizo OU team with holes all over the place on defense and a QB that can beat you in many respects but can also beat his own team because, in his own words, he "sucks at ball security."

I'm not enamored with Dru Brown under center but he has a game under his belt now. And Gundy is not only not scared of OU. He embraces the chance to scheme against and beat them. Watch him throw out the kitchen sink on Saturday, and probably do it successfully.
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Most def only way I could play it. Seems like the last month I’m pretty much scratching my head on sooners lines every week, not sure if they get too much respect or rest of big12 gets none?
 
Two Utes said:
Oregon still has the rose bowl to play for. If they lose to Beavers and conf championship game they won't even get that as a consolation prize.
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As I mention not really counting on them letting down here but they going to the pac12 champ either way correct?
 
Wyoming is interesting to me. Another Game at the least I think it too many points. I feel like Air Force is a great matchup for them, all they do well is run and stop the run, they much weaker against the pass and while AF has shown ability to hit some shots just think this a game wyo will be in throughout.
 
Wyoming was one of my early ones that jumped out. Question is, how many points can Wyoming score?

17, 21, 17 since QB went out. I know for sure the D scored one of those TDs in that span.
 
s--k said:
Wyoming was one of my early ones that jumped out. Question is, how many points can Wyoming score?

17, 21, 17 since QB went out. I know for sure the D scored one of those TDs in that span.
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Certainly a fair question as AF run d is very stout as well. I guess i would say while I don’t like counting on turnovers the service academies/option teams are prone to them and think wyo will benefit from a few. 17-20 is prob a fair number which I dunno puts them in line to win but think it absolutely enough to get them the cover. They haven’t allowed AF to score more than 27 the last 3 years and only 31 once in last 5. Wyo has owned this series as mostly dogs recently so makes me think they well versed against the option.

I know this “ml dogs” thread but I mostly look at from a ats standpoint then naturally the mls I play come out that group for much smaller.,
 
definately lots of weird high spread dogs this week , as mentioned oregon state and west virginia market is moving away from us.

nebraska - didn't they do this last year too ? they start slow and then end the season hot enough to get people thinking they will be hot again next year

southern mississippi - imo this is a tossup game. southern miss was like -3 turnovers against wku and fau was like +3/4. not sure on status of some injuries on southern miss tho

toledo - if peters plays; i think toledo is up there with anyone in the mac minus buffalo

purdue - high scoring back and forth game.
 
Capo why the hell am I ignoring content from you? I’ve never done that to anyone at this site!! Not sure how I even did! Lol.

I was def looking at the Purdue over more than side, have it circled w note to make sure weather ok.
 
Navy@Houston: some mojo here for any Houston backers out there...my normal comparisons have a SU record of 4-3 however single-digit home dogs are 3-1 SU. Not bad odds for a home dog....Cougs have a +3.17 SOS gap as well.

hou-nav.jpg
 
Ok guys, who is betting Syracuse? I haven’t seen anyone mention them but the line keeps moving down.
 
I started to get some thought together on Purdue then got tired last night. I'll se if I can post that today.

Thing with Houston that scares me is the bowl game vs Army. Maybe these players want to prove they are better than that, but you have to be fully prepared and up to defend an option attack. Line is inflated because Navy "has to win" to stay in AAC hunt. If Memphis wins Friday line could drop.

Regarding Syracuse, I plan 50 wager on them ats. Could win, I just prefer the pts. Believe that game could be close.
 
I can't see where anyone mentioned Army.

Hawaii has the title game next week and I can't see them having much interest in getting ready for an Army team that always plays tough. Army has had a down year and has Navy coming up, but I see them taking this game more seriously than Hawaii will.
 
TahoeLegend said:
I can't see where anyone mentioned Army.

Hawaii has the title game next week and I can't see them having much interest in getting ready for an Army team that always plays tough. Army has had a down year and has Navy coming up, but I see them taking this game more seriously than Hawaii will.
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I lean that way I just usually wait till sometime during the day to really cap the late Hawaii gm. Kinda tradition for me. Lol
 
Adding:

Troy +260 vs Appalachian State for 1st Half

What I like about it is 1) Troy just might have some upstart dreams of possibly making a bowl game with a win here. If so, they should come out motivated. It doesn't look good, however (as the 0-12 SU record shows) for Troy to be able to hang for a full game but I can certainly give a 1st half a shot. 2) The average line with similar historical games is -25 and this line is well below half that....a quick check of consensus shows Appy St. is the public darling in this contest....perfect! 3) Two similarly lined games -12.5 & -13 the home dog is 2-0 SU 1st Halves. Lastly, 4) Friday night home conference dogs baby!!

troy-appst.jpg
 
Is anybody giving Colorado a chance here? They are getting my money ATS for sure but not sure it’s worth a ML bet.
 
I don't know what will happen in that Miz-Ark game. Probably going to throw 50 ATS on Hogs now that it is 14.5. The line has gone up 2 pts in 24 hours, so whoever is moving the line out there obviously doesn't feel an upset is possible. But yeah still, almost anything is possible, especially when two bad teams are play each other.
 
C-MAN said:
Is anybody giving Colorado a chance here? They are getting my money ATS for sure but not sure it’s worth a ML bet.
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I don't think they have a chance. I think Andy Ludwig will exploit the buffs new blitzing scheme. Montez will be running for his life. If he has time Shenault is very dangerous however.
 
JROCK1966 said:
What Two Utes said....fwiw I think Buffs get crushed. After much ponder, I believe laying the pts with Mizzou is the play in that game.....then again opinions are like arse-holes, everyone has one.

:cool:
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I dunno how you can lay dd with mizzou but I just heard whole bunch of Razorbacks out with mumps or some other problem so you could be onto something.
 
2daBank said:
I dunno how you can lay dd with mizzou but I just heard whole bunch of Razorbacks out with mumps or some other problem so you could be onto something.
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The queries I ran had Mizzou a much greater fav than other similar games....a tell-tell (or is it tale-tale?) sign to take the fav....
 
Nebraska really didn't play well, but don't feel bad about that. Because they covered and I had alot wrapped up in that. Man, they really played like shit though, lucky to only lose by 3.
 
After watching Missouri and Arkansas ... I would bet a lot on Missouri were they to play again.
 
JROCK1966 said:
Adding:

Troy +260 vs Appalachian State for 1st Half

What I like about it is 1) Troy just might have some upstart dreams of possibly making a bowl game with a win here. If so, they should come out motivated. It doesn't look good, however (as the 0-12 SU record shows) for Troy to be able to hang for a full game but I can certainly give a 1st half a shot. 2) The average line with similar historical games is -25 and this line is well below half that....a quick check of consensus shows Appy St. is the public darling in this contest....perfect! 3) Two similarly lined games -12.5 & -13 the home dog is 2-0 SU 1st Halves. Lastly, 4) Friday night home conference dogs baby!!

View attachment 44413
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Well that did not go well. Meanwhile the other Friday night home conference dog with a 1-10 record wins....go figure.
 
FWIW:

I do not see what everyone sees in Ok. State. I've watched quite a bit of their games - in whole or part - this year. Just don't think they have a prayer of winning.

I took Army on ML and probably will take Northwestern

You fellows have more "X & O" knowledge and stats etc... but my 2 cents.

I've enjoyed Illinois this year and they seem to play very hard and "believe", but a good spot for NWestern imo
 
Who has a pulse on Kansas this year? I think I am only 2-4 on or against them and seem when they get blown out I am on them.

Something about this particular game has me thinking:

1) Kansas has shown good effort and production in some games this year (Iowa St, Texas Tech, Texas, BC)
2) Baylor is in a tough sandwich having just played 3OT TCU game, OU and Texas 3 straight and have Big Xll Title on deck

One problem is this has been a brutal series for KU, typically they don't score more than 7 and have been outscored 44-239 the last 5 years.

I think this might be a sneaky spot where a Les Miles coached team in final home game is a little more up than Baylor....and as has been mentioned weekly, this Baylor O hasn't really been very productive in several games.

In Big Xll play, Baylor is only averaging 29.1 ppg, KU avearges 24.6. Total O yards 417-382, Rushing 151-123, Passing 266-259, There is a huge difference in scoring D 21.4-39.9 and Rush D 152-240 and then thing like QB pressure and sacks.

Definitely think that KU has a shot to hanging in the 2 TD number. Baylor is 0-3 vs FBS as DD fav this year. Upset? Maybe?
 
There are only two Big Ten games that Purdue hasn't covered. The Minnesota game where Sindelar and Moore both went down to injury and the weather game vs Illinois.

This depleted Purdue team has consistently exceeded expectations against the odds and even won 3x as short dogs.

That has to say something about what the staff is getting out of these kids and what these kids are putting into their craft.

Walk-on Aiden O'Connell, 3rd string, has played well enough that he will compete next year for the starting job. Sure AA Moore has been out 7 games straight, but there are weapons on this offense still...David Bell has been Big Ten Frosh of The Week 4x and TE Hopkins has been tearing it up.

Brohm's Boilers have never lost a Bucket game, Tom Allen has never won one as HC and did win by 2 in 2016 as DC. Indiana is going to be hungry for it. I do think that IU built up these last 2 games quite a bit, losing at Penn State and vs Michigan must've set them back some. I'm under no illusions thinking they don't want this one, it's one of those rival games where signs are hung around all year, I expect great effort from IU too - they will want this to cap off their good year.

Tough thing is the Boiler D. Injuries for IU, WR Philyor is believed to be good, but RB Scott may miss.

So about that Boilder D.....?
 
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