Week 14 ~ Halfway

[mrpickem]

Sunday 9-9 +0.81u
Week 44-47 -6.67u
YTD -25.12u

May as well be throwing darts...but heck, it wouldn't be near as fun

• 905 Cincinnati Reds +141 https://goo.gl/1UJ3dC
• 917 Washington Nationals/Tampa Bay Rays Over 7 -110
• 918 Tampa Bay Rays -1½ +190 https://goo.gl/svjQrm
• 918 Tampa Bay Rays -108 https://goo.gl/7Nr2Xx
• 919 San Diego Padres +144 https://goo.gl/jZkuj8
• 919 San Diego Padres/Texas Rangers Under 9½ -115
• 921 Cleveland Indians/St. Louis Cardinals Under 8½ -105 https://goo.gl/sFbdXZ
• 923 Los Angeles Angels -160 https://goo.gl/6LHnWX
• 923 Los Angeles Angels -1½ -105

Also I am looking at NYY and UNDER.

 

[mrpickem]

adding

• 910 Detroit Tigers +1½ -145

 

[tuck321]

Going against Hamels at home is not easy but possible. I think you need an umpire edge to justify it and that is why I am waiting to look before I bet.
Angels I am hoping to back as well. Just waiting for info as well as on Cubs

 

[tuck321]

Lost track of time. Making a small bet if I can

 

[mrpickem]

Cant lay off this one, NYY pen too strong and will probably get 4-5 inn

• 915 New York Yankees -142
• 915 New York Yankees/Philadelphia Phillies Under 8 -105

 

[mrpickem]

wth, since they waited

• 921 Cleveland Indians -120 https://goo.gl/pMLsvr
• 921 Cleveland Indians/St. Louis Cardinals Under 8 +100

 

[mrpickem]

Monday 8-6

Made a couple units mostly based on my adds 4-1

• 951 Pittsburgh Pirates +104 https://goo.gl/p13Uv8
• 956 Atlanta Braves -150
• 956 Atlanta Braves -1½ +145
• 958 Los Angeles Dodgers -159 https://goo.gl/NdmQTS
• 960 San Francisco Giants -126 https://goo.gl/Yu9qHN + Bettis 40 runs in L8 starts
• 963 Oakland Athletics -108
• 964 Detroit Tigers -102
• 964 Detroit Tigers +1½ -155 https://goo.gl/Zim4hk / https://goo.gl/ftXibZ
• 965 Los Angeles Angels +168
• 971 Washington Nationals -203 8-3 on TUE
• 973 New York Yankees -208 best money starter L365 by far +19.6u and Arrietts 21 runs L4 starts
• 973 New York Yankees/Philadelphia Phillies Under 7½ -105
• 979 Cleveland Indians -1½ -105 https://goo.gl/GvDaqQ
• 979 Cleveland Indians/St. Louis Cardinals Under 7½ -115

Home favs after x-inn walk off win in series game > 1 cashes the RL 49% for 14.8% ROI over 4= years (ATL)

p:WOW and season > 2013 and p:HX and SG > 1 and HF
SU: 131-72 (1.22, 64.5%) avg line: -156.7 / 144.0 on / against: +$2,563 / -$3,402 ROI: +8.1% / -16.7%
RL: 99-104 (-0.27, 48.8%) avg line: 140.3 / -155.1 on / against: +$3,080 / -$4,691 ROI: +14.8% / -14.8%


Home dogs over 120 on 4 game win streak lose 73% of the time for a 21% ROI on the fade (TB)
streak = 4 and HD and season > 2005 and line > 120
SU: 27-73 (-2.12, 27.0%) avg line: 141.9 / -153.3 on / against: -$3,493 / +$3,206 ROI: -34.9% / +21.0%
RL: 39-51 (-0.48, 43.3%) avg line: -120.3 / 108.7 on / against: -$2,241 / +$1,696 ROI: -20.4% / +18.2%


Severino 11-4 L15 road starts: =25% ROI View attachment 33002

 

[mrpickem]

added

• 971 Washington Nationals -1½ -110

It's all about max...

76% winner as away fav over 140 returning 16.6% ROI

starter = Max Scherzer and AF and line < -140
SU: 44-14 (2.40, 75.9%) avg line: -186.1 / 170.2 on / against: +$1,793 / -$2,023 ROI: +16.6% / -34.9%

 

[mrpickem]

Tuesday 4-11 o_O

• 902 Atlanta Braves -1½ +150
• 902 Atlanta Braves -140
• 903 Pittsburgh Pirates +109
• 908 Los Angeles Dodgers -135
• 909 Colorado Rockies +139
• 911 Toronto Blue Jays +195
• 913 Seattle Mariners -111
• 915 Los Angeles Angels +134
• 922 Milwaukee Brewers -1½ +105
• 923 New York Yankees -130
• 923 New York Yankees/Philadelphia Phillies Under 9 -103
• 926 Texas Rangers -1½ +165
• 927 Cleveland Indians +100
• 927 Cleveland Indians/St. Louis Cardinals Under 8½ -120

My record has hit seasons bottom and I'm down to just under 50% of original baseball bankroll. I have a lot of fun with this and I'm not going broke losing, just would be nice to mix in a nice win streak. I'm going into chase mode slightly today, raising unit value 25% and if I don't get some decent results in the next few days, I will have to change my model drastically on Monday. So fade away while I'm still giving out these free losers. lol

Good luck degens....if you have just faded me, you' be "in the money"

 

[mrpickem]

Wednesday 7-7

Recovered after 0-4 start in day games

• 951 Arizona Diamondbacks -151 Az 6-2 on thurs while fish 0-8, Grienke 21-13 L365 + https://goo.gl/JxXRBz
• 956 San Francisco Giants +102 Stratton 11-2 at home https://goo.gl/yjnj76
• 962 Detroit Tigers +1½ -160 https://goo.gl/4aVEYy
• 962 Detroit Tigers -102
• 963 Minnesota Twins -131 https://goo.gl/QBLEYy
• 968 Boston Red Sox -1½ +160 https://goo.gl/TrT5bt
• 968 Boston Red Sox -123 https://goo.gl/NdmQTS
• 969 Houston Astros -155 https://goo.gl/QBLEYy

Interesting angle with a team that has won 2 straight 1-run games still playing same team loses at a high rate, but I just couldn't bring myself to take O's vs Leake (12-4 this year) with a guy making his 1st start in the show...but 60% winner as +119 dog = 30.7% ROI points O's

 

[gsro]

Colorado’s/sf would meet that same back to back 1 run win. Or does the team that lost have to be at home?

 

[mrpickem]

Colorado’s/sf would meet that same back to back 1 run win. Or does the team that lost have to be at home?

Ya, that search was with away team winning 2 str 1-run games and favored today

For a home dog, results a little less slanted but still favor team that lost 2 str

p:margin = 1 and p2:margin = 1 and HD and season > 2012 and SG > 1
SU: 32-46 (-1.13, 41.0%) avg line: 119.8 / -130.1 on / against: -$720 / +$378 ROI: -9.2% / +3.7%

RL: 41-37 (0.37, 52.6%) avg line: -143.6 / 131.0 on / against: -$1,192 / +$709 ROI: -10.6% / +9.0%

OU: 43-33-2 (0.65, 56.6%) avg total: 8.1 over / under: +$718 / -$1,486 ROI: +8.5% / -17.1%

 

[mrpickem]

hadda add

• 951 Arizona Diamondbacks/Miami Marlins Under 7 -103

No particular reason, except when I seen the lineups and realized how weak they are and the got total so low, they are begging for over money

 

[mrpickem]

Thursday 6-3

Once again I'm on way too many favorites for my liking on a Friday night, but gonna roll with it anyways

• 904 Miami Marlins +157 fish profitable at home this year, plus mets avg only 3.7rpg and have no more wins than mia
• 908 St. Louis Cardinals -139 atl 3-10 fri, mikolas 19 runs L10 and atl pen shaky on road https://goo.gl/H6UK4n
• 907 Atlanta Braves/St. Louis Cardinals Under 8½ +100 https://goo.gl/w41oyM
• 909 San Francisco Giants +139
• 918 New York Yankees -121 CC 19-6 L25 at home
• 917 Boston Red Sox/New York Yankees Under 9 -106 NYY 20-2 under L22
• 920 Toronto Blue Jays -1½ +115
• 921 Houston Astros -181 14-2 w/cole
• 921 Houston Astros -1½ -110 https://goo.gl/ArGBLv
• 924 Texas Rangers -1½ +145
• 924 Texas Rangers -139
• 928 Seattle Mariners -1½ -107 https://goo.gl/ypXvuy

Looking for scrubs play on rl and maybe total when there is one

team = Cubs and H and DAY and season > 2017 and DAY
SU: 13-8 (0.81, 61.9%) avg line: -177.4 / 161.8 on / against: -$103 / -$7 ROI: -2.7% / -0.3
RL: 12-9 (-0.40, 57.1%) avg line: 104.0 / -124.0 on / against: +$445 / -$595 ROI: +18.7% / -21.8%
OU: 8-13-0 (0.50, 38.1%) avg total: 8.3 over / under: -$622 / +$450 ROI: -26.7% / +19.7%

​

 

[mrpickem]

adding under

• 923 Chicago White Sox/Texas Rangers Under 10½ +104

 

[mrpickem]

Friday 7-5-1

Took NYY under too early and got push instead of win. SF + $ really helped my bottom line as Gints have been top 3 money team in June


Saturday

• 953 Milwaukee Brewers +102 Chacin #2 money pitcher L365 and 15-8 L23 on road as avg 121 dog https://goo.gl/QY7FdE
• 957 Atlanta Braves/St. Louis Cardinals Under 8½ +105 SL or NYY...which is better money train???
• 965 Detroit Tigers +159 can the tiggs lose forever https://goo.gl/B3vBqc
• 967 Cleveland Indians -1½ +145 cleap price on tribe and EJ unlikely to pitch as well as 1st time out
• 967 Cleveland Indians -109 https://goo.gl/e8gozb
• 969 Los Angeles Angels -142 https://goo.gl/H6UK4n
• 973 Boston Red Sox -133 sox strong road/righty/away/division https://goo.gl/xSYDvb
• 973 Boston Red Sox/New York Yankees Under 8 +100 no spainin needed
• 977 Kansas City Royals +189 https://goo.gl/B3vBqc
• 980 Chicago Cubs -136

 

[mrpickem]

Gotta add deGrom...fish 4-9 on sat and 2-10 in day games at home https://goo.gl/JxXRBz

• 951 New York Mets -195

number opened at 180 and almost immediately moved to 195

 

[mrpickem]

SUNDAY:

• 901 New York Mets -122
• 905 Washington Nationals -112
• 907 Atlanta Braves -107
• 907 Atlanta Braves/St. Louis Cardinals Under 8½ -105
• 917 Detroit Tigers +178
• 928 New York Yankees -1½ +115
• 927 Boston Red Sox/New York Yankees Under 8 -103

 

[mrpickem]

also

• 919 Houston Astros/Tampa Bay Rays Under 7 -115

Away team in dome from small dog to 185 fav when both pens allowed 2 or less runs in previous game and series game > 2 over nice sample of 5+ years yields over 60% unders as well as being somewhat profitable with road team. Snell's a beast, but so is Charlie and getting these road warriors at such a discount seems plausible

A and temperature = Indoors and -185 <= line <= 125 and p:BPRA < 3 and op:BPRA < 3 and SG > 2 and season > 2012
SU: 165-138 (0.46, 54.5%) avg line: -111.9 / 101.9 on / ag ainst: +$1,456 / -$2,873 ROI: +4.1% / -8.7%
RL: 170-133 (0.36, 56.1%) avg line: -126.5 / 112.6 on / against: +$2,363 / -$3,734 ROI: +5.4% / -10.0%
OU: 113-176-14 (-0.42, 39.1%) avg total: 8.0 over / under: -$7,714 / +$5,137 ROI: -23.4% / +15.2%

 

[JROCK1966]

:shake::tiphat:

 

[mrpickem]

adding

• 928 New York Yankees -187

Severino 12-3 as home fav at night last 1.5 years including L9 str and 11 of L12 https://goo.gl/9XEZxZ
NYY 19-5 as home fav at night in division since 2013 https://goo.gl/ewHBLV
NYY 25-13 alltime on Sunday night at home while sox 22-19 on road Sunday night