Week 13 ML Dogs

ill be the one to say it: OSU. This game is all they have left for the season, they could get up for it.
 
Gotta think USC has a fightin chance as well

whats the hold up on a line for ball st/Miami ohio?
 
I’ll throw a few out from S&O just to get some conversation started. My lines have not dropped, but I am off work and bored.

Pitt
GT
Wake
USU
Troy
Colorado
UCLA
MD
U-la-la
 
Best Performers Year to Date [3 or more, closing numbers per scoresandodds]

Arizona State +163, +125, +230
California +105, +367, +210
Coastal Carolina +256, +125, +110
Duke +130, +105, +105, +260
Hawaii +711, +384, +155
Kentucky +416, +292, +258
Liberty +172, +222, +317
LSU +135, +317, +217
Northwestern +306, +170, +306, +120
Old Dominion +3000, +148, +477
Pitt +148, +140, +115, +230
SMU +184, +274, +477
ULM +188, +211, +222
 
Cannot fucking wait to annihilate Va Tech. Cavs should run all over that abysmal run d. Hoping for good weather for Perkins
 
It's not a matter of Ohio State being up for games or not. They just are not executing what they are supposed to do. Whatever the coaches are saying isn't relating to what the players are doing. Those coaches know how to coach. The players have talent and skill, the back 7 might lack experience, but we see young and talented players elevate and play to their potential all the time, plus being young is hardly an excuse this far into a season. There is a disconnect somewhere with how they are supposed to play and how they are actually playing and it has been happening all season.

So yeah, Ohio State will be up for this game. Really that won't matter. They have to execute what they are supposed to do regardless.
 
Last bunch of years, for the most part, Ohio State just had the better team. That is not remotely the case here.

Haskins lack of true running ability just limits Urban's playbook. The offensive line takes a ton of abuse for this being a terrible year rushing the ball and they should .. but unlike other years, teams don't fear or respect the QB keeping and their run game is nonexistent because of it.

I have a feeling this isn't just a Michigan win ... I think they tear them a new one.
 
I think Urban's medical problems are having an effect on this Buckeye team. It has to be a distraction to see your coach stumbling around, grabbing his head. dropping to his knees, staring at the ground for long periods of time, and it has to affect the staff as well. Maybe that's not the only reason, but something big is wrong with this team.

It was shocking to me to see Maryland put a guy in motion and the Ohio State D leave that side of the field wide open and Maryland go about 70 yards for a TD, then come right back and do it again and Ohio State made the same mistake and Md went about 70 on the same play.

I know there was a look ahead factor, but making a blunder like that, then making the same one again (and I think they made it a couple more times for long gains but not TDs) is not something I've ever seen Ohio State do under Urban.
 
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TahoeLegend said:
I think Urban's medical problems are having an effect on this Buckeye team. It has to be a distraction to see your coach stumbling around, grabbing his head. dropping to his knees, staring at the ground for long periods of time, and it has to affect the staff as well. Maybe that's not the only reason, but something big is wrong with this team.

It was shocking to me to see Maryland put a guy in motion and the Ohio State D leave that side of the field wide open and Maryland go about 70 yards for a TD, then come right back and do it again and Ohio State made the same mistake and Md went about 70 on the same play.

I know there was a look ahead factor, but making a blunder like that, then making the same one again (and I think they made it a couple more times for long gains but not TDs) is not something I've eve seen Ohio State do under Urban.
Click to expand...

He really needs to retire. He can work for ESPN stress free and make great money while only working a few months a year.
 
East Carolina looks pretty attractive! +755.

Maybe USF +492, Baylor +218, Wake +371, Maryland +410, Auburn +1198, Tennessee +148, Kansas St +428, Utah St +115
 
Iowa has had their way with the Corn last few years, but Frost has these guys playing hard and I will certainly take +8 and dabble of ML
 
ECU on the list for sure, love me some rivalry week pups. Don't have MLs yet, but looking forward to em

Colorado St, ECU, Beaver, Wash, IU, Maryland, Baylor, Colorado (if they play it), USC, BYU, Utah St

All on the not so short list
 
My trend went 3-0 SU and 3-0 ATS last week to bring the records to 27-21 SU & 36-12 ATS (I added the Gardner-Webb loss from two weeks ago since I posted it...it happened to me again this past week when Lamar won but the line movement caused them to no longer appear in these results....but since I posted them I think I should add their result as well) since the beginning of 2017. The trend, once again, is road dogs of lines less than 10pts, worse total defense, and both fav & dog have negative turnover margin. This week we have two hits. It is active on New Mexico State and UL-Lafayette this Saturday. BOL in what you decide Gents!


parlay1week13.jpg
parlay2week13.jpg
 
Pokes been predictable all year, I hope it stays. Homecoming upset then letdown. Now another upset, let's have another letdown. Not only letdown after the upset win but after clinching bowl eligibility. Been awful road favorites (see K State and Baylor)
 
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JROCK1966 said:
My trend went 3-0 SU and 3-0 ATS last week to bring the records to 27-21 SU & 36-12 ATS (I added the Gardner-Webb loss from two weeks ago since I posted it...it happened to me again this past week when Lamar won but the line movement caused them to no longer appear in these results....but since I posted them I think I should add their result as well) since the beginning of 2017. The trend, once again, is road dogs of lines less than 10pts, worse total defense, and both fav & dog have negative turnover margin. This week we have two hits. It is active on New Mexico State and UL-Lafayette this Saturday. BOL in what you decide Gents!


View attachment 35962
View attachment 35961
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We have a new hit on this query. Elon has been added.

parlay3week13.jpg
 
Ole Miss/Miss St - The double digit dog has won outright last two meetings and Ole Miss needs this game for bowl eligibility. Everything points to Miss State but obviously weird things happen when these teams meat (boner reference for today).
 
C-MAN said:
Ole Miss/Miss St - The double digit dog has won outright last two meetings and Ole Miss needs this game for bowl eligibility. Everything points to Miss State but obviously weird things happen when these teams meat (boner reference for today).
Click to expand...

@B.A.R. You‘ve set a fucked up precedent, Matt!
 
Think I might be taking a stab on USF.

Looking at the USF-Temple game, I think the Houston game took alot out of both them which was reflected the following games. USF played Tulane and lost ugly in a game where they seemed to lack effort and focus. USF then went on the road in the cold playing their 2nd and 3rd string QBs with Barnett out at Cincy and hit some big plays to kinda keep it close and just hung on at the end. I was impressed that traveling again to a cold weather away game they competed well vs Temple. Now, I think it is probably true that Temple didn't play their A game coming off their game vs UH. But as it was with Barnett back at QB, USF led 17-0 with both teams going 3-and-out 4x in the 1st H...USF drove the ball better with a 60 and 83y drives for TD and a short drive for FG following a TU fumble. Temple woke up a bit in the 2nd H and scored 13 pts, but the game was decided on a 73y punt ret that gave TU the lead and then three of USF's final four drives ended in turnovers with TU adding a 10y scoop-and-score for the 27-17 win having two non-offensive TDs - which Temple does that often non-offensive TDs, so it is almost expected out of them. USF outrushed them 184-73 (3.8-1.8) although Barnett struggled vs TU's D going just 14-23-82-0-2 so the Owls outgained them overall 337-266 (4.5-3.7).

I think after playing 3 of their last 4 games away and their lone home game in this stretch being the ugly Tulane loss, I think USF will be really up for their home finale vs vs an instate rival.

Sure UCF is going to care about playing USF, the Knights are however off a big GameDay national TV primetime game vs Cincy and do have the AAC Title game on deck almost overshadowing what would normally be a big time game. I'm just saying there has been and will be alot going on in and around their team, if it wasn't a rivalry game I'd say UCF would definitely be in a let-down/look-ahead spot, but the rivalry aspect probably keeps their attention.

For me, watching the Cincy - UCF game off and on, I actually was thinking that UCF might get criticized off that game. They are supposed to prove to the nation they belong and here, I felt they weren't overly impressive vs Cincy. Some of that is Cincy has a solid D that won't let much come easy, but still I didn't come away thinking UCF is worthy of much of anything other than an earned AAC Title game appearance. I guess I just felt once it was clear that they were superior to UC they would assert themselves more.

It was a game that just slowly got away from the Bearcats. After scoring on Defense, UC missed a FG, had a FG blk'd (with long UCF return) and then had a 1st down at the CF12, but would be sacked/fumbled to end the 1st H. After trailing 6-21 at halftime, UC kept turning it over but were getting yards mostly running it. UC ran the ball 4 of 5 plays on their first poss of the 3rd (ended in fumble), next poss they ran 6 of 6 (ended in SOD), then down 28-6 they ran 6 of 8 (ended in fumble). UCF only outgained them 402-379 despite winning by 25.

I remember a UCF D that allowed Memphis 490 yards (UCF could've lost that game), ECU 496y, Temple 670y (UCF could've lost that game) and overall held up better vs Cincy, perhaps partially due to their somewhat limited passing game, Cincy still ran for 252y (4.58).

USF has players to exploit that D as well with RBs Cronkrite and Ford, WRs McCants and St Felix and a good TE in Wilcox (questionable on ankles - Strong is hopeful he can go - important for him to play) (WR Bronson also coming on of late). USF KO ret Bentlee has emerged avg 43y on his last 3 KO ret in the last two games (Horne had 2 KO ret TDs but was injured in Sept).

Obvious concerns are Barnett's decision making and some of USF's unfortunate bounces they've gotten on turnovers. And the USF D vs a good UCF O is going to be a challenge. UCF has won 23 straight and scored 30+ in 23 straight...one shy of tying USF's record setting longest scoring streak of 30+.

USF is a team many want to stay away from. Some might think UCF is out to prove a point and impress people and want nothing to do with betting against them. And that is fine, I'm not trying to tell anyone what to do, I'm just offering some points on what I am thinking. So you all do what you want. This is a season-saving type game for USF - the fact they are in a position to be talking about a game that way says something about their disappointing year...even when they were winning it wasn't very pretty.

I ML'd USF vs Houston and it didn't go well, even though that was just a 7 pt game entering the 4th qrt. Going to need a near perfect effort from USF, might be too much to expect. We'll see what happens Friday night and if I risk the ML or just take the pts.
 
C-MAN said:
Ole Miss/Miss St - The double digit dog has won outright last two meetings and Ole Miss needs this game for bowl eligibility. Everything points to Miss State but obviously weird things happen when these teams meat (boner reference for today).
Click to expand...

I made the mistake about Ole Miss Bowl Eligibility. I don't believe they are eligible for post season play this year so the bowl eligibility isn't much of a motivating factor. With that said, you wouldn't think being motivated for the egg(man?) bowl would be an issue.
 
Bowl eligibility may not play a role in this feud. Let’s not forget HC Luke, one of a handful of coaches that played for the team he coaches, is FULLY aware of the meaning in this game. I am sure he would want nothing more than to win. I just don’t know if he has the defense to stop Fitz and the running game of State. I will tag the MSU TT over as soon as it is available for me. MSU has shown the willingness to keep their foot on the pedal this year. I believe they will do it here too. Not playing full game total, but have this at 63 full health. Little worried about that, as a Grove started some key players are extremely beat up.
 
Back in my younger years, I went Kawledge in the state of Mississippi for a couple of years. While there, I was introduced to the Ole Miss / State feud. I came away knowing you throw the records away in this matchup. Now, obviously it's been a number of years since I've been to Caughlidge, but I imagine this is still a very meaningful game to the players on both sides. No doubt, this is Ole Miss' bowl game and they will be giving their best. I like the play.
 
Wanted to piggyback the USF posts. The team was vastly overrated obviously. I've been loving life the last month+ making money on their games. Now, I believe the value has flipped back a bit... Not a lot. But a bit....
 
It is hard to make a strong case for ECU. ECU is 1-13 in road games under Scottie Montgomery.

ECU is off a feel good win over UConn, but everyone rolls UConn. Pirates ran the ball really well, after having not been able to run the ball on any other AAC team so it is hard to expect them to be able to run on Cincy.

There are things to like about ECU right now. They are more competitive in their losses unlike last season. They outgained UCF by 69y despite losing by 27 (lost 5 TOs). Memphis only outgained them by 83y and the game was played closer than the 18 pt margin (4pt game entering 4th qrt). Tulane also outgained them by 85y in their 6pt win.

Fr QB Holton Ahlers has really given them something on O now that he has taken over. He's led ECU in rushing 8 straight games and threw for over 400 in back-to-back games vs UCF and Memphis, but also struggled going 21-of-67 passing vs Tulane. Sr WR Trevon Brown leads AAC in receiving ypg and is 2nd in receptions per game. As opposing Ds focus on him, Fr WR Snead is stepping up. Converted RB and ST contributor turned DE, Nate Harvey has been a terror....13.5 sacks ranks 2nd nationally and 24 tfl leads the nation and broke AAC record (Ed Oliver). So individually, ECU has some playmakers.

As a team, they still have a ways to go. ECU gives up plenty of big plays by air or ground...like nine 60+y plays tied for 2nd to last in the nation. Tulane had TDs of 73, 79 and 86y. Memphis got 71 and 75 yarders on them the week before. The OL has issues (bad news facing Cincy), Tulane sacked them 5x and ECU lacks any kind of traditional running game outside of the QB (and outside of the UConn game).

There is a chance that ECU's very good pass rush can force the UC passing game into mistakes and incompletions. Problem is that Cincy doesn't care to pass that much, see their play calling vs UCF last week when they were down multiple scores. So even if ECU D does their best on the pass coverage /pass rush side, stopping the run is going to be paramount for them. Offering some hope is the fact that ECU did hold Tulane's run game to 163y (3.3) after Tulane had posted back-to-back 300+ games entering the ECU game. On a down note, Memphis ran for 277 (5.3) with Henderson getting 132 (6.3). Mike Warren is likely going to have success.

ECU is improved over last year for certain. They are playing better of late even if the scoreboard didn't reward them, the play of the field is improved. It is just a tall order to have them win this game. Could happen. Definitely think Pirates can make it competitive related to the spread...It might be some wishful thinking that ECU can pull the upset. Cincy is solid with a top D and it will take UC being off their game and ECU is going to have to play their absolute best. To make matters worse, ECU kicked Cincy's ass last year, no doubt Bearcats will remember that.
 
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Eastern Michigan @ Kent State: The SU record for the home team in this situation is 2-2 for a 50% win percentage and 3-1 ATS. The standard deviation, of the dataset of the 4 lines in the results, is 9.9 on a mean of 14.1. Furthermore, the line of +13.5 is on the winning side of the mean with the two SU wins had lines of +7.5 & +6.5. What I really like though is the fact EMU has a fairly large turnover margin mismatch in its favor but the query results show that does not seem to matter much. Furthermore, in every single query result, the home team had the lead at the end of the 1st Qtr. If I double my units on the 1st Qtr plays, and manage to win, then I'll be playing with house money the rest of the game. Plays: Kent State +3.5 & +240ML 1st Qtr (2 Units ea.), +7 & +295 1st Half, +12.5 & +600ML FG.

kentst1.jpg
 
JROCK1966 said:
Eastern Michigan @ Kent State: The SU record for the home team in this situation is 2-2 for a 50% win percentage and 3-1 ATS. The standard deviation, of the dataset of the 4 lines in the results, is 9.9 on a mean of 14.1. Furthermore, the line of +13.5 is on the winning side of the mean with the two SU wins had lines of +7.5 & +6.5. What I really like though is the fact EMU has a fairly large turnover margin mismatch in its favor but the query results show that does not seem to matter much. Furthermore, in every single query result, the home team had the lead at the end of the 1st Qtr. If I double my units on the 1st Qtr plays, and manage to win, then I'll be playing with house money the rest of the game. Plays: Kent State +3.5 & +240ML 1st Qtr (2 Units ea.), +7 & +295 1st Half, +12.5 & +600ML FG.

View attachment 36010
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More I've thought about it, I actually think Kent State has the best chance of the bigger dogs to win today.

Kent's last two opponents simply have superior talent than them (Buff and Toledo), and it showed. Eastern Michigan does not possess such talent and isn't a great O either. EM does have a strong D.

EM is off just having played the two worst Os in the MAC and two of the worst in the nation...Akron without QB Nelson and CM O who has been awful all year. They did what any team should when facing such teams. Kent is going to be a little tougher than maybe they expect.

Some of EM's numbers outside of CM and Akron aren't that great...if you look at the 9 games previous to those, EM is allowing 402 ypg and allowed Ball St 227y rushing (7.09 ypc - Ball did have 80y run to effect the numbers).

I was pretty encouraged by what I saw out of the Kent O last week. Toledo's D isn't great, but in some tough weather conditions Kent tied their ssn high passing yards (314) and scored 34 pts in the process. Kent's 497y were a ssn high vs FBS opponents. Anyone who watched that game knows that Toledo was better from the opening qrt and who was going to win was never in question, but that game was just 21-17 before a 83y punt ret (Tol very very good ST) and then Toledo scored 21 unanswered to open the 3rd killing Kent's chances of keeping it close. It wasn't like Kent got their yards and pts in garbage time...at HT Toledo had a 289-242 yard edge and for the game Rockets only outgained them by 20 yards.

Kent has played better at home than on the road. They lost by 1 to Akron in OT (with a healthy Nelson for Zips) and lost by 1 when Ohio came from behind to win.

I think Eastern Michigan is a good team, but not as good as some of the teams Kent has recently played and I think that Kent is better than some of the teams that EM has played. This has led to a higher than normal point spread. So I expect it to be competitive and if Kent comes out with their best I wouldn't be surprised if they won.
 
s--k said:
It is hard to make a strong case for ECU. ECU is 1-13 in road games under Scottie Montgomery.

ECU is off a feel good win over UConn, but everyone rolls UConn. Pirates ran the ball really well, after having not been able to run the ball on any other AAC team so it is hard to expect them to be able to run on Cincy.

There are things to like about ECU right now. They are more competitive in their losses unlike last season. They outgained UCF by 69y despite losing by 27 (lost 5 TOs). Memphis only outgained them by 83y and the game was played closer than the 18 pt margin (4pt game entering 4th qrt). Tulane also outgained them by 85y in their 6pt win.

Fr QB Holton Ahlers has really given them something on O now that he has taken over. He's led ECU in rushing 8 straight games and threw for over 400 in back-to-back games vs UCF and Memphis, but also struggled going 21-of-67 passing vs Tulane. Sr WR Trevon Brown leads AAC in receiving ypg and is 2nd in receptions per game. As opposing Ds focus on him, Fr WR Snead is stepping up. Converted RB and ST contributor turned DE, Nate Harvey has been a terror....13.5 sacks ranks 2nd nationally and 24 tfl leads the nation and broke AAC record (Ed Oliver). So individually, ECU has some playmakers.

As a team, they still have a ways to go. ECU gives up plenty of big plays by air or ground...like nine 60+y plays tied for 2nd to last in the nation. Tulane had TDs of 73, 79 and 86y. Memphis got 71 and 75 yarders on them the week before. The OL has issues (bad news facing Cincy), Tulane sacked them 5x and ECU lacks any kind of traditional running game outside of the QB (and outside of the UConn game).

There is a chance that ECU's very good pass rush can force the UC passing game into mistakes and incompletions. Problem is that Cincy doesn't care to pass that much, see their play calling vs UCF last week when they were down multiple scores. So even if ECU D does their best on the pass coverage /pass rush side, stopping the run is going to be paramount for them. Offering some hope is the fact that ECU did hold Tulane's run game to 163y (3.3) after Tulane had posted back-to-back 300+ games entering the ECU game. On a down note, Memphis ran for 277 (5.3) with Henderson getting 132 (6.3). Mike Warren is likely going to have success.

ECU is improved over last year for certain. They are playing better of late even if the scoreboard didn't reward them, the play of the field is improved. It is just a tall order to have them win this game. Could happen. Definitely think Pirates can make it competitive related to the spread...It might be some wishful thinking that ECU can pull the upset. Cincy is solid with a top D and it will take UC being off their game and ECU is going to have to play their absolute best. To make matters worse, ECU kicked Cincy's ass last year, no doubt Bearcats will remember that.
Click to expand...

I think the case for ECU is that Cincinnati just lost the chance to play in the conference championship game and has nothing to play for.
 
s--k said:
More I've thought about it, I actually think Kent State has the best chance of the bigger dogs to win today.

Kent's last two opponents simply have superior talent than them (Buff and Toledo), and it showed. Eastern Michigan does not possess such talent and isn't a great O either. EM does have a strong D.

EM is off just having played the two worst Os in the MAC and two of the worst in the nation...Akron without QB Nelson and CM O who has been awful all year. They did what any team should when facing such teams. Kent is going to be a little tougher than maybe they expect.

Some of EM's numbers outside of CM and Akron aren't that great...if you look at the 9 games previous to those, EM is allowing 402 ypg and allowed Ball St 227y rushing (7.09 ypc - Ball did have 80y run to effect the numbers).

I was pretty encouraged by what I saw out of the Kent O last week. Toledo's D isn't great, but in some tough weather conditions Kent tied their ssn high passing yards (314) and scored 34 pts in the process. Kent's 497y were a ssn high vs FBS opponents. Anyone who watched that game knows that Toledo was better from the opening qrt and who was going to win was never in question, but that game was just 21-17 before a 83y punt ret (Tol very very good ST) and then Toledo scored 21 unanswered to open the 3rd killing Kent's chances of keeping it close. It wasn't like Kent got their yards and pts in garbage time...at HT Toledo had a 289-242 yard edge and for the game Rockets only outgained them by 20 yards.

Kent has played better at home than on the road. They lost by 1 to Akron in OT (with a healthy Nelson for Zips) and lost by 1 when Ohio came from behind to win.

I think Eastern Michigan is a good team, but not as good as some of the teams Kent has recently played and I think that Kent is better than some of the teams that EM has played. This has led to a higher than normal point spread. So I expect it to be competitive and if Kent comes out with their best I wouldn't be surprised if they won.
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I'll handle the stats...you handle the writeups....and together let's get ourselves some wins today @s--k !!

:cheers3:
 
brewers888 said:
I think the case for ECU is that Cincinnati just lost the chance to play in the conference championship game and has nothing to play for.
Click to expand...

I agree that Cincy coming off the UCF game is a good situation for ECU. But I think the "nothing to play for" angle is used too often. Cincinnati is going to want to win this game to finish their season right, win their home finale and for their final game for their seniors. Now, if you are saying that they might not bring the same intensity and motivation they had last week or would've had they won last week, I'd agree. But Cincinnati definitely has something to play for. "You play to win the game" hahaha.
 
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