Week 13 ML Dogs

Johnnyonthespot said:
Reid may be backup now, but has most of the snaps.

ECU beat Cincy 48-20 last year. I see payback
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Reid Herring is most certainly the #2 QB on that team now and hasn't played in a month maybe or longer. Payback is something to fear - UC has the team to do it....I'm sure losing like they did last year was embarrassing for them.
 
s--k said:
Reid Herring is most certainly the #2 QB on that team now and hasn't played in a month maybe or longer. Payback is something to fear - UC has the team to do it....I'm sure losing like they did last year was embarrassing for them.
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Yeah, he played last 4 games.

1-3.

This team is going to get crushed
 
Don't even look at the UConn game, it doesn't mean much to me either ...Ahlers threw for 406 on UCF and 449 on Memphis. He had a rough game vs Tulane. He is a freshman with a ton of upside, but can give good and bad results.

There are reasons to like Cincy, yes. ECU is a different team offensively right now than they were when they played Temple 10-6 and lost by 43. Could Cincy win by 43? Yeah. Could ECU win?....while not the most likely scenarios, yeah they could. Talking about a 17 pt underdog so naturally there are going to be more things to like about the fav than the dog when trying to predict an upset of this size.
 
Johnnyonthespot said:
Bearcats have defense, nobody else in AAC does, I'm just playing devil's advocate. GL sk
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Plenty of reasons to like Cincy. You are taking the more sound and reasonable position in this game. Hitting a +664 underdog takes some out of the normal things to happen. You know what you want to bet and why, that is what you should do.
 
Johnnyonthespot said:
Bearcats have defense, nobody else in AAC does, I'm just playing devil's advocate. GL sk

You always make great points and I'm just spewing things 3 hours before game.
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I will be on Cincy. Second best team IMO in the AAC. I like where this program is heading. This victory will also be for bowl positioning. Another victory pushes them into a bigger payday for the conference. Not a NY6, but a respectable spot maybe down in FL.
 
Not much to like today. Playing anything early feels like chance. The two late games, although not much payoff, seem like best chances of winning outright.
 
ECU line movement like setting more hooks on a long fishing line but SI does show 2 of 3 on cincy but further investigation shows 2 of 3 sportsbook plays on ECU.

I like the HC, defense and revenge.

We will see.
 
JROCK1966 said:
Kent State 1st Qtr ATS & ML hits! Nice to win one for a change.....

:abouttime:
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Well done. I lost 1st H +7 so far.

Not writing off the W quite yet. Kent in RZ twice, made FG and missed one. Their TD was short scoop-and-score. Then Kent lost 2 costly TOs of their own. EM started slow, as the half wore on EM was playing well. Got to keep pressure on Weigers, he isn't good under pressure. Kent has heated him up a couple times with good success. I took a bit more at +6 2nd H.
 
Damaging sequence to start the 3rd. Kent D forces a 3-and-out. Then Kent goes for a 4th down at midfield out of a punt formation (backup QB) and EM sacked him. Kent D appeared to force a second 3-and-out, but this time EM goes for it out of traditional offense and got a 45y-ish TD run. Time to rip up the ML ticket on this one unfortunately. I think EM only outgained them by 30y in the 1st H. Got to just try and hit the ATS covers now. Onward...
 
Kent State got within 8. They have 3 horrible 4th down calls today. One may've been an ok call, but poor execution. The other two were trick plays that tricked nobody but Kent themselves. Just run regular plays if you want to try and convert 4th down.
 
s--k said:
Kent State got within 8. They have 3 horrible 4th down calls today. One may've been an ok call, but poor execution. The other two were trick plays that tricked nobody but Kent themselves. Just run regular plays if you want to try and convert 4th down.
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2 plays before that last one Barrett had his WR wide open for 6 but underthrew him....

:moneyoutofhand:
 
JROCK1966 said:
2 plays before that last one Barrett had his WR wide open for 6 but underthrew him....

:moneyoutofhand:
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They had some receivers behind the coverage a few times today but Barrett only hit what, 1 of maybe 6 on those? EM taking knees now up 8. Cover game, 2nd H, lost 1st H and ML but really feel like this was a great ML opportunity...honestly probably my favorite one of the weekend. Oh well.
 
Shitty day for upsets...unless VT hangs on or some comebacks happen
 
Hey Incarnate Word is busy next week in Ames, hmmm payday game or FCS playoff game?
 
One of the two dogs will likely win if not both

I'm on UW +3, not sure I care about ML at this point for value

WVU just like over every way possible there, light breeze at best, no precip, high 30s
 
Kent State 50 to win 208
ECU 10 to win 59
USF 10 to win 48
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Today was pretty lame outside of two good games. One upset and mostly favorites covering makes Scott a dull boy. And I didn't even directly benefit from the VT upset. Season is coming to an end. I am losing some interest.
 
New Mexico State, Navy, and FSU are most likely IMO...was interested on Troy as well but I think Appy State has some revenge on their minds.....still looking.
 
Georgia Southern @ Georgia State: This one caught my eye as there is a very large-marge gap in turnover margin between these two teams. Southern leads all D1 teams at 21 while State sits at -7. Pic 1 shows home teams with a difference of >27 in TO margin. Interestingly, the home team is 5-1 ATS in these games. I added in the previous matchup in pic 2 (which was a State win on the road last year) and the only result was a SU win by the home team. See pic 2. What is motivating Southern to play today? The Sunbelt East is being decided in a game a few hundred miles to the North. They're already won 8 games and are bowl eligible. Meanwhile this game IS State's bowl game and they have already had relative success against their in-state opponent. Pick: Georgia State +11 & +325ML

gast1.jpg

gast2.jpg
 
Minny @ Wisky: Please tell me more about this game. Pic 1 below shows a 10-0 SU and 7-3 ATS record for the home team in this situation (my normal comparisons for those who are familiar with my work). You might look a these records and say whoah son! Wisky for the large! But not so fast my friends. The ave line is -28.6. The standard deviation from the line is 8.46. This line for this game is well over 2 SD's from the mean and 2 out of 3 ATS losses came from 2 out of 3 of the lowest lines which were just over 1 SD from the mean. Long story short=>I am of the opinion that this line is bait! We have double-barrels going today for motivation as well. Not only are these two teams rivals but Minny needs also this win for bowl eligibility. Minny for the win today?? What say you?

Minny3.jpg
 
JROCK1966 said:
Minny @ Wisky: Please tell me more about this game. Pic 1 below shows a 10-0 SU and 7-3 ATS record for the home team in this situation (my normal comparisons for those who are familiar with my work). You might look a these records and say whoah son! Wisky for the large! But not so fast my friends. The ave line is -28.6. The standard deviation from the line is 8.46. This line for this game is well over 2 SD's from the mean and 2 out of 3 ATS losses came from 2 out of 3 of the lowest lines which were just over 1 SD from the mean. Long story short=>I am of the opinion that this line is bait! We have double-barrels going today for motivation as well. Not only are these two teams rivals but Minny needs also this win for bowl eligibility. Minny for the win today?? What say you?

View attachment 36060
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I think I have bet Minnesota in this game like every year and can't tell you the last time I won....or they won. And you know what, I looked at the game this year and thought "you know, I don't think I like Minnesota this year" Then I was like "what the hell did I like about them all those other years?". Well I really really did like them with the ML with Leidner that one year when they led big and Wisconsin scored like 4 straight TDs and Minny didn't even cover.

I'll take 'em!

Ski-U-Mah!
 
Today's dogs worth a look:

BYU - Team has been trending up the later half of the year. Defense has been solid (23rd overall, 36th vs pass and 25th vs the rush). Shelley has been good in relief of injured Huntley but perhaps as important is the injury to RB Moss. As Wilson went to Boise and threw for 252, I don't think the moment is too big for him. Obviously a big concern at the coaching mismatch. I have a feeling we see a close game and that means you will have a shot with a DD dog on the ML

Cuse - Dungey questionable but at least the back up is serviceable. Cuse plays better defense than they get credit for and are quite competent in their play calling. These teams are pretty even so if you get a healthier than expected Dungey, you have good value and if not, you get fair market value.

Indiana - Lame duck can often mean lame effort. Quality home dog. Boiler down! What a disappointment of a season for Purdue.

Baylor - QB issues for Texas Tech and the sharps are betting it like it is free money.

UCLA - Not sure there are many teams that have made as many strides as UCLA has this year. Stanford has Cal on deck and a slew of offensive line injuries.,

Minnesota - bowl eligibility game for Minnesota and they are widely inconsistent in their performances so the game is in them on specific days. Wisconsin run game vs Minnesota subpar rush defense the concern. Price is right. Have a feeling it is a motivation game so think the gophers ATS and ML are linked more than your average game at this spread.

Terps - Again a bowl eligible game. Team gave effort against TOSU and should have won, so I think they are still competing. Just so much adversity with the off the field stuff this year that I kind of want the kids to make a bowl, get some extra practices (with rest and water and medical treatment available) and have a positive spin on the season. For the seniors this is it and it would be a shame if their last college football season was ruined by coaches, trainers and administrators. I am generally a player hater but not in the case of the Terps players. Tough match up in that Terps have struggled against the teams that can stop the run. Just stay close and let Franklin make a bad ingame decision. This is a hold your nose one but might be worth a shot.

Vols - vanderbilt is clearly the more polished team right now but I know which fan base will bowl travel. I cannot figure out the vols for the life of me. At all.

Colorado - Cal has Stanford on deck, their State is burning down, and besides the State burning down from policies it is also burning down from actual fires. Colorado playing for bowl eligibility and should be able to limit Cal points to have a shot late. Montez has been upgraded to probable and this is the healthiest the Buffs have been in awhile.
 
When Fleck got hired he heard over and over and over and over again from fans...the only thing that matters is beating Wisconsin. He asked 'if we go 1-11 and the 1 win is Wisconsin that is ok?' Yes.
 
I really do like Maryland today. Assuming they can pick themselves up from an almost monumental win (for them)...good news, this would be another monumental win. PSU has not been playing good football since....?
 
s--k said:
I really do like Maryland today. Assuming they can pick themselves up from an almost monumental win (for them)...good news, this would be another monumental win. PSU has not been playing good football since....?
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4th quarter Illinois. FML.
 
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