Week 12 Write ups and hopefully feedback

[Br@ssknux]

It's hard to believe we're into the home stretch of the season...seems like we just started a couple weeks ago, but that's how it is every year.

11-4 last week, brings the season total to 87-57 (.6042). On to this week. Thanks as always for reading and giving your thoughts.

Purdue +22.5 WIN
Kansas +28 LOSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSS
Penn State +4 LOSS
Maryland -2.5 LOSS
Michigan State +14 WIN
Louisville +1.5 LOSS
Wisconsin -10 LOSS
Georgia Southern +13.5 WIN
Vanderbilt +6 LOSS
Missouri +7 LOSS
Oklahoma State pk LOSS
Mississippi State +5.5 WIN
San Diego State -16 WIN

Week record 5-8. New yearly record 92-65 (.586)


1. Purdue +22.5 @ Iowa: This is a definite look ahead for Iowa(Nebraska next week with a lot of talking heads predicting a loss for them), and I'm sure they are feeling the pressure of an undefeated season. It's a season that looks entirely plausible in hindsight, given their schedule, but certainly one that nobody saw coming. Purdue has been very good in spots like this so far this year, having hung pretty well with Wisconsin, Michigan State and Northwestern in their Big 10 road games and covering rather easily in all 3. Iowa has beaten Minnesota, Maryland and Illinois(not exactly heavyweights) by 5, 16 and 9 points in their home games. QB CJ Beathard is banged up and Iowa really doesn't have to win with style points, as their path to the final 4 is assured by winning out. The matchup is not pretty on paper if you're a Purdue guy, but in this case, I think the final score ends up somewhere short of 3 TDs, as the Hawkeyes will be looking to get a W and get out of there in one piece. I looked it up, and in their last 13 as a conference road dog, Purdue is 1-3 ATS, and Iowa is only 1-8 ATS since 2010 as a double digit conference favorite, including 0-3 this year.

 

[Bear]

It's hard to believe we're into the home stretch of the season...seems like we just started a couple weeks ago, but that's how it is every year.

11-4 last week, brings the season total to 87-57 (.6042). On to this week. Thanks as always for reading and giving your thoughts.

1. Purdue +22.5 @ Iowa: This is a definite look ahead for Iowa(Nebraska next week with a lot of talking heads predicting a loss for them), and I'm sure they are feeling the pressure of an undefeated season. It's a season that looks entirely plausible in hindsight, given their schedule, but certainly one that nobody saw coming. Purdue has been very good in spots like this so far this year, having hung pretty well with Wisconsin, Michigan State and Northwestern in their Big 10 road games and covering rather easily in all 3. Iowa has beaten Minnesota, Maryland and Illinois(not exactly heavyweights) by 5, 16 and 9 points in their home games. QB CJ Beathard is banged up and Iowa really doesn't have to win with style points, as their path to the final 4 is assured by winning out. The matchup is not pretty on paper if you're a Purdue guy, but in this case, I think the final score ends up somewhere short of 3 TDs, as the Hawkeyes will be looking to get a W and get out of there in one piece. I looked it up, and in their last 13 as a conference road dog, Purdue is 1-3 ATS, and Iowa is only 1-8 ATS since 2010 as a double digit conference favorite, including 0-3 this year.

This one jumped out at me right away too. Iowa shouldn't be favored by 3 TD's over anyone. For sure going to use them in a teaser with Michigan State too.

 

[Br@ssknux]

2. @Kansas +28 v West Virginia: This is definitely a first for me...I can't recall ever throwing a play on a team as bad as Kansas, and if you think I'm nuts, I can't say that I blame you, but hear me out. Kansas is 0-10. It's very rare for a power 5 school to go winless for a whole season. Kansas might do it, but chances are that they find a win SOMEWHERE on their schedule. This is as good a time as any for them, but luckily for us, all they have to do is come within 28 points at home against a lackluster opponent. The Jayhawks are coming off easily their best performance of the year, sending the fear of God into the TCU Horned Frogs, losing by only 6 in Ft Worth after Trevonne Boykin came up lame. They certainly have to be feeling as good as they've felt all year, and this is definitely not an inspiring situation for the Mountaineers who qualify as a terrible 28 point favorite. They are awful ATS in the Big 12(12-21), and they covered last week so they are due to fall back into their ATS doldrums. Also remember that Kansas did in fact knock off West Virginia the last time these two hooked up in Lawrence, so the memory is fresh in the minds of both programs. I am not a fan of Skyler Howard, who has failed to crack 160 passing yards in any of his past 3 games against Texas, Texas Tech and TCU, who each have been torched by other teams pretty regularly this year. If the Jayhawks can get a couple scores on the board somehow, they should be able to cover this.

 

[RetroVK]

gl brassballs, can't say i disagree with any so far

 

[Br@ssknux]

3. @Maryland -2.5 v Indiana: The entire free world is on Indiana in this game, and as good as they looked last week against Michigan, and with how well they ran the ball, I can see why. However, in order for the Hoosiers to cover this, they will almost certainly have to win it, and they are 6-23 SU on the road since 2010. Also remember that although Indiana has looked good in some games, they still have found a way to lose all of their conference games, including a home loss to Rutgers. Also remember that Indiana came into their game with Maryland last year off a good performance(won at Missouri) and got their clocks cleaned 37-15, outgained by 154 yards when Sudfeld was still playing QB. Now they are assumed to waltz into an away stadium and all of a sudden find a way to win just because we all think they deserve the breaks to go their way? Maryland is ranked 30th against the run, and might even be a better run defense than Michigan at this juncture because Michigan is without such key pieces on their defensive line. In addition, Maryland has been running the ball very well lately, and the Hoosiers are ranked 85th against the run. In their last 4 games, against Michigan State, Iowa, Wisconsin and Penn State, Maryland has outgained those teams 3 out of the 4 games by an average of 22 yards per game. In their home games they very easily could have beaten both Wisconsin and Penn State. 82% of the public is on the dog here....I'm going the other way.

 

[TahoeLegend]

I never play any team with a defense as bad as Purdue's (at least 100th in every important defensive stat) so I won't bet this game, but I watched how easy it was for Minnesota roll down the field with ease passing the ball last week so Purdue should be able to score. That gives you a shot.

This game will also have probably the worst weather of any game this week. Starting to snow now, will snow up to a foot by game time. It is forecast to stop by game time, but they will play in single digit windchill and winds at 20 mph.

I've never bet an 0-10 team in my life--and never will--so I won't comment on the Kansas game.

I like your Maryland pick though. They suddenly started covering a few games back--5 of their last 6 I think and seem to play hard right to the end of every game.

 

[RetroVK]

Indiana needs the last two for bowl eligibility. Probably the best Indiana football team this millennium. Pretty sure they crush the Insight Bowl team of a decade ago. I think you should both be careful as Hoosiers have their backs against the wall and terps are playing for diddly doo. Also, there are a litany of deceiving finals in Indiana's resume ... Michigan State, Michigan, Wake Forest and Rutgers all come to mind just off the top of my head. Then throw in that they were one less injury away from almost assuredly beating ohio state... Would just be sad for that team to not make a bowl since they are one of the best teams in that conference.

 

[Br@ssknux]

4. @Penn State +4(-115) v Michigan: Both of these defenses have the edge over the opposing offense, but if you've been paying attention, you'll notice that Michigan's defense has been leaking oil lately, especially in their last 2 road games. The biggest reason for that is that they are banged up on the defensive line, with 2 stalwarts out for the year (Bryan Mone and Marmion Military's own Ryan Glasgow). In their last 2 road games they gave up 527 yards while getting gashed on the ground by Indiana and 461 yards to Minnesota, including 9.1 yards per pass attempt to the Gophers, whose pass offense under QB Mitch Leidner previously was some sort of sick joke. Now they go on the road to face a better squad, and a top 10 defense that won't let Jake Rudock throw for 400 yards and 6 TDs (another indictment of Indiana I should have mentioned above), and is likely to harass him into looking more like himself. Penn State also comes in to this game fully rested off an off week. Penn State will be sky high on senior day and a reported "white out" so I'll be surprised if Michigan goes in there and takes care of business, considering what they've looked like the past couple of road tilts.

 

[Br@ssknux]

Indiana needs the last two for bowl eligibility. Probably the best Indiana football team this millennium. Pretty sure they crush the Insight Bowl team of a decade ago. I think you should both be careful as Hoosiers have their backs against the wall and terps are playing for diddly doo. Also, there are a litany of deceiving finals in Indiana's resume ... Michigan State, Michigan, Wake Forest and Rutgers all come to mind just off the top of my head. Then throw in that they were one less injury away from almost assuredly beating ohio state... Would just be sad for that team to not make a bowl since they are one of the best teams in that conference.

When you said you agreed with the first two, I said to myself, "wait until he reads the next one". LOL

I'm with you, but this is nothing new with Indiana. Tons of deceiving finals in their history, and there might be another one this week because their history says they will almost assuredly find a way to lose on the road. Hell, they haven't figured out a way to win even ONE freaking conference game this year, even against Rutgers on their home field for crying out loud. I like the Hoosiers, I really do, and I've been on them several times this year, last week included. I just don't like them in this spot. The more they need to win, the less chance it happens. I've been wrong many times before though, no doubt about that. :shake:

 

[Br@ssknux]

I never play any team with a defense as bad as Purdue's (at least 100th in every important defensive stat) so I won't bet this game, but I watched how easy it was for Minnesota roll down the field with ease passing the ball last week so Purdue should be able to score. That gives you a shot.

This game will also have probably the worst weather of any game this week. Starting to snow now, will snow up to a foot by game time. It is forecast to stop by game time, but they will play in single digit windchill and winds at 20 mph.

I've never bet an 0-10 team in my life--and never will--so I won't comment on the Kansas game.

I like your Maryland pick though. They suddenly started covering a few games back--5 of their last 6 I think and seem to play hard right to the end of every game.

I will not dispute that I am on some God awful teams in early action.

 

[Br@ssknux]

5. Michigan State +14 @ Ohio State: I'm guessing this one will fall below 14 by game time, as the public is on MSU. I'm not enthralled with that development, but in this case, Michigan State is a must take at that price. Although you can criticize MSU for their performance this year on the stat sheet, including having been outgained last week at home by Maryland, they are an extremely resourceful group. This is especially true as an underdog (14-5 ATS since 2010) and on the road (18-9 ATS). If Ohio State gives anything close to a sloppy performance Connor Cook (hurt last week but cleared to play this week) will be in a good position to make them pay. I will be very surprised if the Spartans fail to hang in this one.

 

[Br@ssknux]

6. @Wisconsin -10 v Northwestern: I've been against Northwestern a lot this year because I think they suck, but that makes me sound rather silly because the Cats sit at 8-2 on the year. Assholes like me can tell them they suck all we want and Fitzy and his young men will continue to sprint back to the locker room with another W. Having said all that, however, Northwestern does kind of suck, as they've been outgained by conference foes by a whopping 58.5 yards per game. They come into this game staring at a total mismatch when they have the ball, as the badgers are 8th in yards per play, 12th in rush defense and 3rd in passer rating against. That's in contrast to Northwestern's 116th ranked offense(ypp) and 121st rated pass offense. Throw in the fact that the Badgers have throttled the Cats the last 2 times they've played in Madison (35-6 and 70-23) and I'm sold.

 

[Br@ssknux]

7. Louisville +1.5 @ Pitt: These teams are actually very similar, but I'm afraid that Pitt is somewhat of a pretender. They've had some nice wins, but in each case, they've been opportunistic, like having VT's QB out for their game, or GT in the middle of a stretch where they couldn't walk and chew gum at the same time, or Duke when their QB shows up mysteriously in street clothes. In addition, Louisville's defense is far superior to Pitt's, as the Panthers rank quite pedestrian in overall yards per play (69th), rush defense(77th) and 3rd down conversions (85th), while Louisville is in the top 20 in most categories. Louisville is also nearly flawless in this role, going 12-2 ATS as a road dog since 2010. Hopefully this line stays on that side of the ledger.

 

[Br@ssknux]

8. Georgia Southern +13.5 @Georgia: At this point in time in their gestation this year, this Georgia offense just can't seem to get anything going. The almost outright refuse to throw the ball with Grayson Lambert, leaning to a more run heavy approach that doesn't yield much but is certainly better than turnovers. The problem this week is that Georgia Southern will almost certainly be the more motivated team, and they actually do a very good job of stopping the run. Although Georgia has been very good this season on defense, their one Achilles heel is run defense, and that is where Ga Southern excels. They are ranked #1 in he country in yards per carry, so Georgia better be ready for them. There is no doubt Georgia will get their best effort, and i cannot make that claim for GSU, as I would be surprised if UGA comes out fired up. With a pedestrian offense and a very tricky offense to stop, I think GSU will give Georgia fits all day.

 

[Frank Costanza]

Thanks, really enjoy your work. I'm on IU tomorrow, your post certainly holds water. But when a team hasn't been bowling in almost a decade, you'd think that the sense of purpose / urgency would trump the team playing for nothing. But sometimes the latter = a team's that relaxed and is on top of its game. I'll side with IU, if they wet the bed tomorrow so be it.

 

[TahoeLegend]

I checked back to see if you were taking Georgia Southern. I don't know enough about them to have an opinion and have never bet on them or against them.

But I was surprised to see that almost every good handicapper, both public and private is on them this week, so it sounds like you are onto something.

I ended up not taking any side of any of your games, but I will watch them with interest tomorrow.

Good luck.

 

[Br@ssknux]

9. Mississippi State +5 @Arkansas: The Hogs have been good to me in recent weeks, especially last week when they came out of Baton Rouge with an impressive W. This came on the heels of previous wins at Tennessee and at Ole Miss. Congrats to them, but they are in a much different situation here, expected to win, and expected to do so against who I think is an underrated team. They lost handily to Alabama last week, but their defense actually played well, holding the Tide to only 3.5 yards per play if you take out their 3 huge plays of 60 yards or more. Also, Arkansas holds a slight edge among the offenses, but in terms of offense versus the opposing defense, Mississippi State should have the much easier time against rhe Arkansas defense than vice versa. They have not been particularly good in the home favorite role either, losing outright to Toledo and Texas Tech and squeaking out an OT winner against Auburn as a 7 point favorite. Now that this line has climbed up to 5, the value lies with the dog in my opinion. If MSU can drop 31 on the road against a top 20 defense like Missouri, they can certainly score that much on a 95th ranked ypp defense like Arkansas

 

[Br@ssknux]

Thanks, really enjoy your work. I'm on IU tomorrow, your post certainly holds water. But when a team hasn't been bowling in almost a decade, you'd think that the sense of purpose / urgency would trump the team playing for nothing. But sometimes the latter = a team's that relaxed and is on top of its game. I'll side with IU, if they wet the bed tomorrow so be it.

Yeah...we'll see. I'm just betting that IU blows it, regardless of the motivation. I kind of hope they don't, believe it or not so this is somewhat of an emotional hedge. I'd like to see them in a bowl game because they are fun to bet on, and if they get this one, they should take care of Purdue n the Bucket game with little problem.

 

[Br@ssknux]

I checked back to see if you were taking Georgia Southern. I don't know enough about them to have an opinion and have never bet on them or against them.

But I was surprised to see that almost every good handicapper, both public and private is on them this week, so it sounds like you are onto something.

I ended up not taking any side of any of your games, but I will watch them with interest tomorrow.

Good luck.

Prob got a couple more Tahoe....

 

[Br@ssknux]

10 @Missouri +7 v Tennessee: Missouri has been abysmal on offense all season, but their defense has remained a bright spot, and it should definitely keep them in this game. In my opinion, Tennessee is still not trustworthy as a sizable favorite, especially on the road against anyone not named Kentucky(sorry Lindetrain). This will also be a very emotional game for Mizzou as it will be Gary Pinkel's last game, and the player and student body love him. The Tigers are also 3-0 both straight up and ATS in this series, so I think we need to slow down a bit before we make Tennessee a 7 (or even 9 like it was earlier in the week) point favorite.

 

[Br@ssknux]

11. @Oklahoma State pk v Baylor: I just don't have the same feeling about Baylor that I've had over the past couple of years. In previous years, their offense was obviously a force of nature, but their defenses were very good as well. In 2013 their defense ranked 23rd in overall yards per play, in 2014 they were 33rd. This year, the defense leaves a lot to be desired, especially against the pass (74th), and with Jarrett Stidham now banged up, it takes away a major part of their offense which is the QB running on the read option. In the past, in late November road games like this, we've seen teams take away their slants, which is a big part of their offense as well, and I would assume a smart coach like Mike Gundy will be trying to do that. everyone is waiting for the Cowboys to lose, but I think they'll take care of the Bears here, much like they did in 2013 when Baylor came in undefeated and left a 49-17 loser. That was, by the way, the 11th consecutive loss for Baylor in Stillwater. OSU is also 8-0 ATS in the last 8 in Stillwater and 8-1 ATS in the last 9 overall in this series. We're getting close to literal ownership status here.

 

[Br@ssknux]

12. @Vanderbilt +6 v Texas A&M: I wanted at least 7 in this one, but i'm going to bite at 6...watch for 7 though because the spread might climb as game time approaches. How good is the Vandy defense? Well, don't look now, but according to advanced metrics measuring overall defensive efficiency, they are ranked 3rd in the country, behind only Alabama and Oklahoma. You might say that they are likely to meet their match this week against rh high powered Aggie attack, but not really....A&m checks in at 71st in offensive efficiency, 58th in rush offense and 72nd in pass efficiency rating. Also, consider that this only the second true road game that A&M will have played this year(!!) and in the first one, the were completely embarrassed at Ole Miss, mustering only 192 yards of total offense. This will be Kyler Murray's first foray away from College Station as a starter, and this is certainly not the ideal defense for him to go up against, as they are very sound and tackle efficiently, which is a rarity in college football. Obviously, Vandy's offense has been atrocious, but Ralph Webb can run it a bit, as he did last week against Kentucky, and A&M's rush defense is ranked 103rd in the country. In what should be a pretty low scoring game, I'll take the 6 points.

 

[Br@ssknux]

13. San Diego State -16 @ UNLV: Not riding this San Diego State team right now is a mistake if you can get them at anywhere close to a reasonable price. In conference play they are unbeaten and have outgained conference foes by 203 yards per game and outscored people by 24 points per game. Defensively they have been outstanding, ranking 12th in overall yards per play, 9th in rush defense and 31st in passer rating against. UNLV starting QB Blake Decker is pretty decent, but he is doubtful, and the backup Kurt Pallendech is a train wreck, as his 9/24 performance in relief last week at Colorado State would suggest. Offensively, San Diego State's MO is to run the ball like crazy behind their talented OL and with Donnell Pumprey, the nation's leading returning rusher, and luckily for them UNLV is ranked 124th against the run. 80% of the public sees it like I do, so that's a bit unnerving, but hey, sometimes the public is right.

 

[Br@ssknux]

That's going to be it for now...had some others I was considering including both dogs tonight, but I stuck to my moratorium on weeknight games.

I was close to pulling the trigger on LSU +6.5, but something about that game has me on the fence. It's a lot of points, but LSU's defense hasn't been that good and if Fournette gets bottled up by the #11 rush D, what is LSU to do? I would certainly never lay the points in this one though.....Also considered Cal at +11, but i don't trust their defense to stop Stanford at all...I can see a replay of Stanford's game with UCLA, even though a very potent offense getting double digits in a rivalry game is certainly attractive.....If Boykin doesn't play, TCU has no shot to keep it close, but if he does, even without Doctson, I wouldn't lay double digits. TCU is very strong as a road dog under Patterson(8-2 ATS since 2010)....It seems to me that Rice will probably beat UTSA, but I haven't been paying close enough attention to the Owls to make a call in that one....It seems like Tulsa might have a shot to catch Navy napping and looking ahead to Houston and unleash some offense on them getting 13, but they have an atrocious record as a home dog in recent years (2-7 ATS)...Other leans are UCLA, USC and Arizona State, but I don't think I'll end up adding any of them. Take care guys!

 

[TahoeLegend]

You finally have a few I'm taking.

I'm with you on Oklahoma State. In fact, that is a max bet for me, -1 x5 and pick x5......I did get the +7 and took Vandy. I expect to win SU although no one, including Sumlin, has any idea which aTm team will show up in any given week.

I did take Oklahoma, also a max bet, -10 x5, -11 x5. I don't see TCU standing up to the Oklahoma power game and Oklahoma has been preparing for this game all year.

First week this year I've had two max bets.....I looked at Tulsa also. In fact, I thought there was a chance Houston and Navy may both be looking ahead this week, but decided to pass on both and make my two max bets.

Good luck this week.

 

[M.W.]

3. @Maryland -2.5 v Indiana: The entire free world is on Indiana in this game

Not me, brother, I like the Terps.

 

[Frank Costanza]

11. @Oklahoma State pk v Baylor: I just don't have the same feeling about Baylor that I've had over the past couple of years. In previous years, their offense was obviously a force of nature, but their defenses were very good as well. In 2013 their defense ranked 23rd in overall yards per play, in 2014 they were 33rd. This year, the defense leaves a lot to be desired, especially against the pass (74th), and with Jarrett Stidham now banged up, it takes away a major part of their offense which is the QB running on the read option. In the past, in late November road games like this, we've seen teams take away their slants, which is a big part of their offense as well, and I would assume a smart coach like Mike Gundy will be trying to do that. everyone is waiting for the Cowboys to lose, but I think they'll take care of the Bears here, much like they did in 2013 when Baylor came in undefeated and left a 49-17 loser. That was, by the way, the 11th consecutive loss for Baylor in Stillwater. OSU is also 8-0 ATS in the last 8 in Stillwater and 8-1 ATS in the last 9 overall in this series. We're getting close to literal ownership status here.

Posted on another thread, but Baylor's QB option behind Stidham is currently playing WR. That's correct, they have nothing to back him up. So even with a healthy Stidham you wouldn't, and haven't, seen him on that part of the zone read. And that really hurts Baylor's overall run game. I feel very good about Okie State in this game. Almost too good.

A&M? There an internal mess, QB issues, an offense that has went south, etc. And they're going on the road against a good defense that can also run and gash that porous interior. Sign me up.

 

[BJPLAYER]

Thank you knux for your efforts....I read your write ups every week and they consistently give me a better read on the games....much appreciated

 

[pressitup]

12. @Vanderbilt +6 v Texas A&M: I wanted at least 7 in this one, but i'm going to bite at 6...watch for 7 though because the spread might climb as game time approaches. How good is the Vandy defense? Well, don't look now, but according to advanced metrics measuring overall defensive efficiency, they are ranked 3rd in the country, behind only Alabama and Oklahoma. You might say that they are likely to meet their match this week against rh high powered Aggie attack, but not really....A&m checks in at 71st in offensive efficiency, 58th in rush offense and 72nd in pass efficiency rating. Also, consider that this only the second true road game that A&M will have played this year(!!) and in the first one, the were completely embarrassed at Ole Miss, mustering only 192 yards of total offense. This will be Kyler Murray's first foray away from College Station as a starter, and this is certainly not the ideal defense for him to go up against, as they are very sound and tackle efficiently, which is a rarity in college football. Obviously, Vandy's offense has been atrocious, but Ralph Webb can run it a bit, as he did last week against Kentucky, and A&M's rush defense is ranked 103rd in the country. In what should be a pretty low scoring game, I'll take the 6 points.

Allen may start, which is fine with me. Of course, what little run game we have (read none) is worse with KA.
Good luck. I do like that Vandy defense. Should be fun to watch.

 

[CHSGTMD]

great stuff as usual BK and great wins last Saturday ... keep it rollin
last week had 4-5 outright dog winners circled and played more after your write ups so thanks:shake:

liking the Ga Southern, Vandy, Mich St plays and will look more into the others

what is your take on UNC and line drop 7 to 3.5 ? I have ridden the tarheel train and see today as a 10 point win but don't like things when feeling too good about a play lol

 

[ksimpsc]

BOL br@ss, great writes as always. only one that we disagree on so that is a good sign.

 

[Timh]

Brass kudos on an outstanding year! BOL today really like the Ok St. play and your write up on SDST is very compelling.

 

[Br@ssknux]

You finally have a few I'm taking.

I'm with you on Oklahoma State. In fact, that is a max bet for me, -1 x5 and pick x5......I did get the +7 and took Vandy. I expect to win SU although no one, including Sumlin, has any idea which aTm team will show up in any given week.

I did take Oklahoma, also a max bet, -10 x5, -11 x5. I don't see TCU standing up to the Oklahoma power game and Oklahoma has been preparing for this game all year.

First week this year I've had two max bets.....I looked at Tulsa also. In fact, I thought there was a chance Houston and Navy may both be looking ahead this week, but decided to pass on both and make my two max bets.

Good luck this week.

Wow...good for you on the Vandy number. It's down to 5 in some spots now. As for Oklahoma....we saw what TCU is without Doctson and Boykin: Slightly better than Kansas. I think you're safe with your OU pick. :shake:

 

[Br@ssknux]

Not me, brother, I like the Terps.

Happy to hear that! :cheers3:

 

[Br@ssknux]

Posted on another thread, but Baylor's QB option behind Stidham is currently playing WR. That's correct, they have nothing to back him up. So even with a healthy Stidham you wouldn't, and haven't, seen him on that part of the zone read. And that really hurts Baylor's overall run game. I feel very good about Okie State in this game. Almost too good.

A&M? There an internal mess, QB issues, an offense that has went south, etc. And they're going on the road against a good defense that can also run and gash that porous interior. Sign me up.

Great info as usual from you Frank. Much appreciated. Lots of signs pointing to Okie state in that one for sure. Hopefully it comes through for us. Glad you like Vandy too. :shake:

 

[Br@ssknux]

Allen may start, which is fine with me. Of course, what little run game we have (read none) is worse with KA.
Good luck. I do like that Vandy defense. Should be fun to watch.

Did Murray pout about something again or would an Allen start be more of a performance, getting healthy issue?

 

[Br@ssknux]

great stuff as usual BK and great wins last Saturday ... keep it rollin
last week had 4-5 outright dog winners circled and played more after your write ups so thanks:shake:

liking the Ga Southern, Vandy, Mich St plays and will look more into the others

what is your take on UNC and line drop 7 to 3.5 ? I have ridden the tarheel train and see today as a 10 point win but don't like things when feeling too good about a play lol

Glad to hear CHS

UNC has been good to me as well (except week 1 against South Carolina, which I'm still not sure actually happened). I shied away from them this week because VT is running the ball better lately and UNC has a porous rush defense. Plus, they've only been +14 yards per game on the road as opposed to + a million at home. Also have to consider VT will be playing on a high with Beamer's last home game. Line is dropping but I'm uninterested in that game other than hoping the UNC/Clemson ACC title tilt remains on track.

 

[Timh]

Just noticed this....

College Football

GAME #329-330

Maryland - QB Caleb Rowe (Undisclosed) expected to start Saturday vs. Indiana
Maryland - QB Perry Hills (Mononucleosis) expected to miss Saturday vs. Indiana

Hills is our running QB and responsible for most of the increased rushing ydg, but a horrific passer with no arm strength. Rowe has thrown a ton of interceptions this year and has looked mentally lost out there. He throws a really nice ball, and I thought he should have been starting last year vs. C.J. Brown. That said though, he has been horrible this year and I blame the coaching staff for a lot of that.

 

[Br@ssknux]

BOL br@ss, great writes as always. only one that we disagree on so that is a good sign.

:shake:

 

[Br@ssknux]

Just noticed this....

College Football

GAME #329-330

Maryland - QB Caleb Rowe (Undisclosed) expected to start Saturday vs. Indiana
Maryland - QB Perry Hills (Mononucleosis) expected to miss Saturday vs. Indiana

Hills is our running QB and responsible for most of the increased rushing ydg, but a horrific passer with no arm strength. Rowe has thrown a ton of interceptions this year and has looked mentally lost out there. He throws a really nice ball, and I thought he should have been starting last year vs. C.J. Brown. That said though, he has been horrible this year and I blame the coaching staff for a lot of that.

Oh shit, this is bad. Rowe has been beyond awful. Didn't I see a 5/26 with a 0/4 ratio out of him earlier this year? The only saving grace is he torched Indiana in Bloomington last year, but shit, he doesn't have Diggs anymore.

 

[Br@ssknux]

If Hills has mono, then you're probably looking at Rowe at Rutgers next week too.

 

[Br@ssknux]

Thanks for the info Timmy

 

[Timh]

I really expected Rowe to take the job this year, and he has been terrible. MD has good speed and talent at WR which is wasted with Hills at the helm. Hills can't break a pane of glass from 30 yards but has proven to be tough and added to our otherwise pedestrian running game.

 

[mrob]

BOL as always, I bet okie state and sdsu early at a better # but you should be fine. I actually like indiana tho. Not really against you on many but I more then agree about the aztecs who I really like

 

[Br@ssknux]

Good Lord. Did you guys know that Florida Atlantic was 17-3 ATS as a road dog since 2010 coming into their game today? I did, but I didn't play them despite a great situation because I didn't want yet another 2-8 or worse squad on my noon card. Had to have Kansas though. What a buffoon I can be sometimes....

 

[Br@ssknux]

A couple other things I feel compelled to mention:

1. I would never have played Maryland if I had known that Captain misfire Caleb Rowe was going to be their QB. This is the guy who had a 8/27 49 yard 0 TD 3 INT performance earlier this year. I was expecting Hills.

2. Christian Hackenberg is a disgrace. Did anyone see how he tied Franklin's hands by quickly fleeing the field and hiding on the sidelines after they missed on the 3rd and goal when down 21-13? Franklin couldn't have gone for it if he wanted to because he would have had to call another timeout just to find his QB. 13/31 for 137 yards. He's no Mitch Leidner I guess.

 

[ksimpsc]

Br@ss, even more of a disgrace than Hacky is that crap play calling. They ran some of the same plays over and over.

 

[Br@ssknux]

Ok so Louisville just gave up 42 points in the first half to Pitt. Pitt's season high against FBS competition for a game was 31. I was due for results like this. Also, I HAVE to stop betting any games involving Northwestern.

 

[RetroVK]

Later plays are the stronger ones on your card. Day is young. Mich St battling despite not having Cook.

 

[geezer]

6. @Wisconsin -10 v Northwestern: I've been against Northwestern a lot this year because I think they suck, but that makes me sound rather silly because the Cats sit at 8-2 on the year. Assholes like me can tell them they suck all we want and Fitzy and his young men will continue to sprint back to the locker room with another W. Having said all that, however, Northwestern does kind of suck, as they've been outgained by conference foes by a whopping 58.5 yards per game. They come into this game staring at a total mismatch when they have the ball, as the badgers are 8th in yards per play, 12th in rush defense and 3rd in passer rating against. That's in contrast to Northwestern's 116th ranked offense(ypp) and 121st rated pass offense. Throw in the fact that the Badgers have throttled the Cats the last 2 times they've played in Madison (35-6 and 70-23) and I'm sold.

Possibly, one of the worst officiating calls of the season. Badgers score on a punt return and it's called back because of an illegal fair catch signal ... you have to see it to believe it. That being said Stave is one of the worst major college quarterbacks I have seen this year ... kills them with fumbles and interceptions.