Week 12 Write ups and hopefully feedback
- Thread starter Br@ssknux
- Start date
Br@ssknux
Pretty much a regular
Ok, just a terrible week, but I suppose I was due for that. It doesn't excuse a couple of terrible decisions though.
1. Purdue +22.5 WIN: One of the few decent plays of the week. Purdue has been covering as a big road dog all year and they did the same this week. Canzeri had a long run with 2 minutes left to move it out to 20 but the cover was never really in doubt. Purdue actually outgained Iowa but that number is deceiving because Iowa only had to run 58 plays. Still, if you're getting 23 points and your team outgains the opponent, you were on the right side. Grade: A-
2. Kansas +28: LOSS: West Virginia had this covered with 4 minutes left in the first quarter. The final yards were WV 630 KU 220. This was a monumentally hideous decision, and anyone who follows his thread weekly should consider future visits here potentially harmful because i even considered making a play like this. Even worse, I eliminated an actual smart, cogent play (FAU) because I didn't want to have too many 2-8 or worse teams on my early card, and I picked kansas over FAU, a team that was 17-3 ATS in it's role playing a team ripe for a clunker performance. Not to self: Do not conjure up fantasy world scenarios when considering where to invest your hard earned money Grade: F----. Fail, and demotion back to elementary school.
3. Maryland -2.5: LOSS: Some bad luck here because the oafish Caleb Rowe had to play QB for the Terps due to Perry Hills getting mono, but this was the wrong side. Maybe MD runs for something like 500 yards if Hills was there, but when a lot of things happen in your favor that you thought would happen (Maryland ran like crazy on IU, IU didn't run all that effectively) and you still never really had a chance at the cover, it was a bad decision. GRADE: D
4. Penn State +4: LOSS: The moral of this story is that Mitch Leidner is infinitely better than Christian Hackenberg, and the Minnesota coaching staff is light years ahead of Penn State in it's offensive scheme. I thought Penn State's defense would be able to get more stops than they did also. Grade: C
5. Michigan State +14: WIN This was a no brainer, as Michigan State has proven to be a tough bunch that will fight to the death so they are an auto play when getting points like this, even without their QB, who I assumed they would have when I made that play. GRADE A
6. Wisconsin -10: LOSS Northwestern is my kryptonite. Thinking this flawed Wisconsin team would be able to overcome the Fitzy voodoo magic to the tune of a 10+ point win was utter insanity. I thought Northwestern wouldn't be able to move the ball. I was right. And Wisconsin never had a prayer of covering. Terrible, logic-less decision. GRADE: F-
7. Louisville +1.5: LOSS There were plenty of reasons to be on the Cards in this one, but no way to predict they would give up 42 points in the first half. This was one that might have been the right side 7 out of 10 times, but it wasn't yesterday. Louisville closed as the favorite, so the 12-2 road dog number didn't actually apply. GRADE: C-
8. Georgia Southern +13.5: WIN These two teams pretty much played to a standstill, so the 13.5 dog was the right side: Grade: B
9. Mississippi State +5: WIN Good call here as Arky wasn't in their preferred role and they've found ways to gag as a home favorite all year. I thought MSU would score on Arkansas and they did. I did not foresee 7 passing TDs from Brandon Allen, but I'm glad I had him on my DF team! Grade B+
10, 12: Missouri +7, Vandy +6: LOSS BOTH I'll recap these together because it was the same idea...very good defensive teams against shaky favorites in which I just need some "deafult" scores from the dogs to cover. Well, I got a grand total of 8 points between the two, and even that one score was excruciating for Missouri to get, as it took them 4 plays and a desperation dive to get in from the 1 foot line. These weren't terrible plays, and I thought emotion would help carry Mizzou, but there is real danger in playing on awful offensive teams. GRADE C-
11. Oklahoma State pk LOSS : Baylor proved me wrong on this one. I thought there was little chance they would be at their best given the circumstances. The surprise was that the OSU defense gave a performance in what was probably the 10 percentile for them. Not too worried about this one. Grade C
13: San Diego State -16 WIN: Good job identifying a team that is on a roll against a team that they matched up beautifully against. Like I said, sometimes the public is right. Any idiot could have called this one though, so I won't go overboard. Grade: B
Overall, just a shitty week. It's funny how you can be doing this for many years, but yet you still learn something every week.
1. Purdue +22.5 WIN: One of the few decent plays of the week. Purdue has been covering as a big road dog all year and they did the same this week. Canzeri had a long run with 2 minutes left to move it out to 20 but the cover was never really in doubt. Purdue actually outgained Iowa but that number is deceiving because Iowa only had to run 58 plays. Still, if you're getting 23 points and your team outgains the opponent, you were on the right side. Grade: A-
2. Kansas +28: LOSS: West Virginia had this covered with 4 minutes left in the first quarter. The final yards were WV 630 KU 220. This was a monumentally hideous decision, and anyone who follows his thread weekly should consider future visits here potentially harmful because i even considered making a play like this. Even worse, I eliminated an actual smart, cogent play (FAU) because I didn't want to have too many 2-8 or worse teams on my early card, and I picked kansas over FAU, a team that was 17-3 ATS in it's role playing a team ripe for a clunker performance. Not to self: Do not conjure up fantasy world scenarios when considering where to invest your hard earned money Grade: F----. Fail, and demotion back to elementary school.
3. Maryland -2.5: LOSS: Some bad luck here because the oafish Caleb Rowe had to play QB for the Terps due to Perry Hills getting mono, but this was the wrong side. Maybe MD runs for something like 500 yards if Hills was there, but when a lot of things happen in your favor that you thought would happen (Maryland ran like crazy on IU, IU didn't run all that effectively) and you still never really had a chance at the cover, it was a bad decision. GRADE: D
4. Penn State +4: LOSS: The moral of this story is that Mitch Leidner is infinitely better than Christian Hackenberg, and the Minnesota coaching staff is light years ahead of Penn State in it's offensive scheme. I thought Penn State's defense would be able to get more stops than they did also. Grade: C
5. Michigan State +14: WIN This was a no brainer, as Michigan State has proven to be a tough bunch that will fight to the death so they are an auto play when getting points like this, even without their QB, who I assumed they would have when I made that play. GRADE A
6. Wisconsin -10: LOSS Northwestern is my kryptonite. Thinking this flawed Wisconsin team would be able to overcome the Fitzy voodoo magic to the tune of a 10+ point win was utter insanity. I thought Northwestern wouldn't be able to move the ball. I was right. And Wisconsin never had a prayer of covering. Terrible, logic-less decision. GRADE: F-
7. Louisville +1.5: LOSS There were plenty of reasons to be on the Cards in this one, but no way to predict they would give up 42 points in the first half. This was one that might have been the right side 7 out of 10 times, but it wasn't yesterday. Louisville closed as the favorite, so the 12-2 road dog number didn't actually apply. GRADE: C-
8. Georgia Southern +13.5: WIN These two teams pretty much played to a standstill, so the 13.5 dog was the right side: Grade: B
9. Mississippi State +5: WIN Good call here as Arky wasn't in their preferred role and they've found ways to gag as a home favorite all year. I thought MSU would score on Arkansas and they did. I did not foresee 7 passing TDs from Brandon Allen, but I'm glad I had him on my DF team! Grade B+
10, 12: Missouri +7, Vandy +6: LOSS BOTH I'll recap these together because it was the same idea...very good defensive teams against shaky favorites in which I just need some "deafult" scores from the dogs to cover. Well, I got a grand total of 8 points between the two, and even that one score was excruciating for Missouri to get, as it took them 4 plays and a desperation dive to get in from the 1 foot line. These weren't terrible plays, and I thought emotion would help carry Mizzou, but there is real danger in playing on awful offensive teams. GRADE C-
11. Oklahoma State pk LOSS : Baylor proved me wrong on this one. I thought there was little chance they would be at their best given the circumstances. The surprise was that the OSU defense gave a performance in what was probably the 10 percentile for them. Not too worried about this one. Grade C
13: San Diego State -16 WIN: Good job identifying a team that is on a roll against a team that they matched up beautifully against. Like I said, sometimes the public is right. Any idiot could have called this one though, so I won't go overboard. Grade: B
Overall, just a shitty week. It's funny how you can be doing this for many years, but yet you still learn something every week.
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
Kind of tough on yourself with the grades, which I think is a good practice though.
Georgia Southern was an Aplus in my opinion. Basically dead even in yards and score heading into overtime.
SDSU was an Aplus in my opinion.
Also, Kansas didn't show up. That happens sometimes with huge dogs. There were a lot of reasons to like that game imo and while it was an F in terms of what happened, don't let those bad efforts from bad teams keep you from making good bets on bad teams later.
Great season and next week will be a great week. look forward to the writeups.
Georgia Southern was an Aplus in my opinion. Basically dead even in yards and score heading into overtime.
SDSU was an Aplus in my opinion.
Also, Kansas didn't show up. That happens sometimes with huge dogs. There were a lot of reasons to like that game imo and while it was an F in terms of what happened, don't let those bad efforts from bad teams keep you from making good bets on bad teams later.
Great season and next week will be a great week. look forward to the writeups.
M.W.
Parties like it's 1979
That's amazing. Why did he do it? Did he explain?
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
He turned his ankle a little and sort of limp-sprinted to the bench. Later in the game when they were down dd with a few minutes left the idiot ran towards the sideline on fourth down thinking they would punt. He is the next J Russell for someone if they don't watch out .. he cannot play the QB position in the NFL.
Br@ssknux
Pretty much a regular
Thanks for the kind words Kyle. Thanks for reading. Writing that helps me learn, as I'm sure it does for you too. I was most upset about Kansas because it kept me (in an illiogical way) from betting FAU, which I had pegged all week. This should be a fantastic week of games, as Thanksgiving week usually is.
Br@ssknux
Pretty much a regular
I haven't seen anyone mention it...not sure it was even addressed by the media.
Br@ssknux
Pretty much a regular
He is going to get someone fired.
Last year, I heard rumblings that he was on the take, and if you watch tape of their game against indiana in Bloomington last year, you can see what people are talking about. Almost impossibly bad throws against a defense that couldn't stop anyone through the air.
He also bitches at teammates, pouts, has terrible body language. Does not seem like a likable guy. That's just my impression, as I've never heard anything indicating any lack of popularity with teammates, but he seems like a train wreck waiting to happen to me.
Frank Costanza
Co-Inventor of the Man's Bra
I continue to chuckle at anyone that thinks Christian Hackenberg will be successful on Sundays. Great, he can throw the ball through the side of the barn (and occasionally hit it.) He also has the pocket presence of a fence post and carries himself on the field like he’s channeling Jay Cutler.
