Week 11 Writeups and Hopefully Feedback

Br@ssknux

Br@ssknux

Pretty much a regular
A 4-9 week was my worst week of the year and drops the overall number to 55% for the year. (72-59 .5496) Here I was a couple weeks ago thinking I might get to over 60% by the end of the year, and now I'm just trying to hold on to be respectable. It was one of those weeks last week. I had 4 rocking chair games, 4 that I can't complain about at all. The other 5 all were set up to succeed if that had any balls at all, either by sucking it up and closing the game out, or cashing in on a first and goal score late. All 5 failed miserably. That's the way it goes sometimes. It's a very tight travel week for me, so I have to get these out earlier than normal. I'm hoping the worm will turn this week.


Wyoming +14 WIN
Rutgers +7.5 WIN
Minnesota +6 WIN
Baylor +6 WIN
Oregon State -12 WIN
Purdue +21 LOSS
Mississippi State +6 WIN
Iowa State -10.5 LOSS
UTEP +1 LOSS
Texas A&M -2.5 LOSS
Kentucky -21 LOSS
NC State +2 LOSS
Arkansas -2.5 WIN
UCLA -16.5 WIN
Washington State +14 PUSH


8-6-1




(Warning....WEEKNIGHT GAME) 1. Wyoming +14(-115) @ Boise State: Boise is money on the road, and they proved that again with another virtuoso performance as a road dog last week at Fresno, but that is not the case at home. They are 1-3 as a home favorite this year, and are due for a clunker as they have failed to cover in 7 of their last 9 after a win. Wyoming comes in with a nice win over Colorado State, and the Cowboys match up well with Boise. Defensively, Wyoming is extremely solid(15th in yards per play), especially against the pass (5th in yards per pass attempt), but they struggle a bit against the run. Luckily for them, Boise is bad enough running the ball that even their mediocre run defense will have the edge over the Broncos, and their extremely capable pass defense should give Bachmeier a rough time. Offensively, as always, Wyoming likes to run, and Boise has struggled in that area on defense , ranking only 86th in yards per carry against, and the Cowboys should have a major edge on 3rd down as their run game leaves them with lots of 3rd and short and Boise has struggled to get off the field all year (97th on 3rd down). Good defense and an ability to run make the Cowboys a pretty attractive dog if you're giving me 14, especially in a scenario that Boise has been shaky in recently.
 
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2. Rutgers +7.5(-113) @ Indiana: I've harped on this before, but since Greg Schiano has come back onto the scene in Piscataway, the rule has been simple when it comes to Big Ten games: Fade them at home and ride them on the road. They were destroyed last week at home by Wisconsin, which dropped them to 1-7 ATS in home conference games under Schiano, but now that uncovers value this week as the Knight get back in their comfort zone on the road, where they are 6-1 ATS under Schiano. Despite the beatings Rutgers has taken this year(all at home), the still find themselves at 4-5, with a great shot at bowl eligibility, which is of vital importance for the program at this point in it's development. If they beat Indiana, they have two shots at a 6th win, and one of them is against Maryland, which is leaking oil down the stretch as usual. Despite their struggles, the Knights still have the edge over the Hoosier offense in pretty much every category, and will have a huge edge on 3rd down, as they surprisingly rank 12th in the country in that category defensively. QB Noah Vedral is banged up, but Schiano said today that they anticipate having him, nd if they don't, we'll probably get even more value. I'll take more than a TD with a resourceful, well coached team like Rutgers in the role they thrive in against a team that's been a complete disaster. The Hoosiers have typically been a good home favorite lately, but nothing has gone according to schedule for them all year. I'll jump at the chance to fade them here.
 
3. Minnesota +6 @Iowa: The Gophers belched out a clunker last week at home against my Illini, although I have to mention that Illinois has been a very dangerous double digit dog over the last 3 seasons. By my count that's the 6th time they've won outright as a double digit dog since they had that huge upset as a 30 point dog against Wisconsin in October of 2019. Not bad! Ok, back to the Gophers. They stunk last week, but when they've stunk at home previously (a lackluster 31-26 home win over Miami and an unconscionable loss to Bowling Green) they responded with stalwart performances in the next game(Colorado, Purdue), both on the road. Despite the tough loss, they still have everything in front of them as they control their own destiny in the Big Ten West, and it starts this week against an Iowa team that doesn't figure to be able to move the ball much against their defense. Iowa's defense is very good, but their offense remains one of the worst in FBS, and even though they are likely to be better off without the banged up Spencer Petras, PJ Fleck and his staff will have a week to prepare for backup QB Alex Padilla. Iowa struggles like crazy to run it, so any success for Iowa will likely come from their passing game. Minnesota will also struggle with Iowa's defense, but they are in a better position to have some success than Iowa's offense is because Tanner Morgan has the ability to be effective in the passing game, and Iowa has shown that you can throw on them. Morgan isn't consistent, but if he wakes up on the right side of the bed and has a hot day passing, Minnesota is probably a better than 50/50 shot to win this game. They have shown the ability to bounce back, they'll be motivated and matchup favors them in my opinion. 6 is a generous amount, so I'll take it.
 
For what it worth I like your 1st couple plays this week a lot more than last. Only one I remember lining up with you on last week was Memphis and we were butting heads on several. Just turns out last week was good for me but ive had 2 real bad weeks earlier in year when you crushed it: I have no doubt you will get back on track this week, hoping we don’t have any disagreements! So far so good! Lol
 
4. @Baylor +6 (-113) v Oklahoma: Baylor has been solid all year, especially at home, and that definitely cannot be said about Oklahoma away from home as the Sooners have been outgained in both of their true road games against Kansas and Kansas State. It was an absolute stinker last week for Baylor in a loss to what had previously appeared to be a lost TCU team, but sometimes after an authoritarian coach gets let go, the squad sees a dead cat bounce. Also, Baylor is not close to the same team on the road as they are at home, and I trust the Baylor coaching staff to author a nice bounce back effort. Caleb Williams has been great, no doubt, but we have to remember that he looked lost against what remains as the 128th ranked defense in Kansas for almost 3 quarters, and Baylor is by far the best defense Williams has faced. From a total Yards per play against standpoint, the four teams Williams has played are ranked 128th, 124th, 107th and 106th. Advanced metrics have these two teams very close in the standings (Football Outsiders FEI, for example). I think Oklahoma is overdue to lose, especially on the road, so I'll grab the 6.
 
5. @Oregon State -12 v Stanford: This is out of chronological order, but I want to get this one in now before it goes up further. This is a horrific matchup for a Stanford defense who has become comically bad against the run. I'm not sure if anyone watched Utah run all over the Cardinal last week, but I stopped what I was doing when Utah took a snap at their own 4 yard line because I thought there was about a 50% chance that whoever the Utes handed the ball to would take it 96 yards for the TD. And then he did. Oregon State's running game with BJ Baylor (and hopefully Deshaun Fenwick) will be a threat to score on just about every play as Stanford is decimated on defense. Their offense isn't much better as Tanner McKee is doubtful, and if he doesn't go, Stanford is absolutely non competitive on offense. The fact that Shaw started a wildcat wide receiver at QB last week instead of Jack West tells you how bad West is. He's only averaged 4.5 yards per attempt, and although OSU's defense was bad enough to get their DC fired this week, the Cardinal will probably make whoever steps in for him look like a genius. OSU has also been good this year as a home favorite, covering all 4 of their home games. Back on my Beavers this week.
 
6. Purdue +21 @Ohio State: The public is all over this dog, but Purdue as a road dog is an auto play for me, and the way OSU has looked at home this year, especially in the red zone against good defenses makes it seem unlikely that they'll be able to cover a number this big against a good defensive team like Purdue. Also, Ohio State's secondary against good teams has been shaky, and all the OSU fans I talk to(and they are everywhere) tell me that they don't have anyone they have faith in to cover David Bell. Purdue is now 8-2 as a road dog since '17 under Brohm, 18-7 as a dog overall and 10-3 against ranked opponents. Maybe they'll get blown out and the OSU talent(especially with Garrett Wilson back)will shine through, but Purdue has done nothing to indicate they aren't a great play in this scenario.
 
Ruh roh. 1st disagreement. I really like sooners, I don’t think it matters much what they did most the years with that shitbag rattler at qb, they a different team wit Williams imo. Of course im usually dead wrong bout baylor and all you guys right so maybe I should leave alone. I really think sooners roll them tho. Maybe I’m being too forgiving of the Ku Game and god knows I don’t have any kind of read on Baylor, just think they can be passed on. Maybe I’ll pass.
 
2daBank said:
Ruh roh. 1st disagreement. I really like sooners, I don’t think it matters much what they did most the years with that shitbag rattler at qb, they a different team wit Williams imo. Of course im usually dead wrong bout baylor and all you guys right so maybe I should leave alone. I really think sooners roll them tho. Maybe I’m being too forgiving of the Ku Game and god knows I don’t have any kind of read on Baylor, just think they can be passed on. Maybe I’ll pass.
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I didn't base anything on this play on when Rattler was playing, only on the games Williams has played. I agree anything Oklahoma has done (offensively) when Rattler was in there is irrelevant It's always risky to bet against Oklahoma for me, but I trust Aranda here. Hoping that the Baylor running attack that has been lethal in their home games shows up here.
 
7. Mississippi State +6 @Auburn: Mississippi State is a team whose stat rankings don't really do it justice. They always look a bit worse on paper than in practice from a yards per play perspective because they really don't try to run, but rather use a short passing game to move the ball down the field It results in weak per play numbers, but the rack up sizable amounts of yardage and fare well on 3rd down. Defensively, they've been strong all year, and even with their per play numbers looking like they do, I still have them with the overall edge on paper in this matchup. Auburn has been adequate on defense, but I don't see a scenario where MSU doesn't do what they usually do, which is cause fits for the opposing defense by converting 3rd downs and completing passes in clutch situations. Defensively, MSU has been stout against the run, and that's what Auburn likes to do. MSU has already won at Texas A&M and covered 3 of 4 on the road with the only non cover being at Memphis, and the Bulldogs outgained Memphis by 100+ in that game but fell victim to the "Memphis Tigers home dog pixie dust." This game looks like it will come down to the wore, and I don't see it being an overly high scoring game. I'll definitely take the points here.
 
8. Iowa State -10.5 @Texas Tech: There is a chance that Tyler Shough might be back for Texas Tech, but I don't know that it matters much, and it looks more likely that Donovan Smith will start. Tech's offense has been well above average throwing the ball, but Smith is more of a running QB, and Tech has struggled offensively when he's been in there against Kansas State and Oklahoma, two teams that have been susceptible to the pass. Iowa State's defense is probably second only to Oklahoma State defensively in the Big 12, and their offense will have a major edge over Tech's putrid defense, who has given up gobs of points to just about everyone they've faced. Also, Sonny Cumbie is completely overmatched as a head coach, and the Tech brass knows it as they've already hired a little known Baylor assistant rather than give the alum Cumbie a shot to run the show. Tech is surprisingly still 5-4, but they are on a death spiral, as interim lame duck coaches almost always preside over weak efforts down the stretch. This game looks like it will have some points, so the 10.5 number will not have as much value as usual. Iowa State has underperformed their record for sure, but they have very good underlying numbers on both sides of the ball. I think they're due for a dominant performance here. I can see a 45-24 type game here, and maybe worse if Shough's return is delayed another week.
 
Br@ssknux said:
I didn't base anything on this play on when Rattler was playing, only on the games Williams has played. I agree anything Oklahoma has done (offensively) when Rattler was in there is irrelevant It's always risky to bet against Oklahoma for me, but I trust Aranda here. Hoping that the Baylor running attack that has been lethal in their home games shows up here.
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I think Amanda is a fair point, he has given Riley offenses trouble. So maybe even tho I think their secondary is pretty weak they still might slow sooners down, they didn’t give them a lot last year in Oklahoma. That Baylor run game part the reason I lean sooners, I feel like you better off throwing against them but I think bears have to run. Not sure if they have lot of success on the ground or not. Either way you and a few others round here I respect been way better on Baylor game than I have, I’ve had no read on when to play them or not so I’ll prob just stay away and hope you cash.
 
9. UTEP +1 @North Texas: Back to the well with the Miners. I've been on them pretty much every week, and UTSA handled them last week, but UTEP still has been too good of a team this year to be getting points against North Texas in this spot. The Mean Green has been pretty good against the run, but UTEP QB Gavin Hardison will get some class relief against North Texas pass D that's ranked 103rd in yards per pass attempt against. Also, UTEP should have a major advantage defensively against a North Texas offense that's ranked 106th in total offense and 119th in yards per pass attempt . They also will have a hard time converting 3rd downs against UTEP's 6th(!!)ranked 3rd down defense. Maybe I'll get fooled again by the Miners here, but all indications are that the wrong team is favored here.
 
10. Texas A&M -2.5 @Ole Miss: Matt Corral is obviously not 100% healthy, and you can make a strong case that he's about to go up against the top defense he'll face this year, including Alabama. Also, although Zach Calzada has been underwhelming this year, he keeps getting better, and he gets a favorable matchup here against the Ole Miss pass defense that ranks 92nd and relies a ton on getting pressure on the QB. Against this A&M OL, they'll have to blitz to accomplish that, and I think Jimbo Fisher will be ready to scheme receivers open against the Ole Miss secondary. Ultimately though, I don't know that the Aggies will have to throw much as their MO is running the ball with Spiller and Achane and the Rebs are definitely vulnerable to productive running games. A&M has also covered 8 in a row as a road dog, and Ole MIss has been terrible as a home dog, going 1-8-1 in their last 10. Everything is pointing to the Aggies here.
 
Br@ssknux said:
10. Texas A&M -2.5 @Ole Miss: Matt Corral is obviously not 100% healthy, and you can make a strong case that he's about to go up against the top defense he'll face this year, including Alabama. Also, although Zach Calzada has been underwhelming this year, he keeps getting better, and he gets a favorable matchup here against the Ole Miss pass defense that ranks 92nd and relies a ton on getting pressure on the QB. Against this A&M OL, they'll have to blitz to accomplish that, and I think Jimbo Fisher will be ready to scheme receivers open against the Ole Miss secondary. Ultimately though, I don't know that the Aggies will have to throw much as their MO is running the ball with Spiller and Achane and the Rebs are definitely vulnerable to productive running games. A&M has also covered 8 in a row as a road dog, and Ole MIss has been terrible as a home dog, going 1-8-1 in their last 10. Everything is pointing to the Aggies here.
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I really like this one. Besides the Ol miss offense being beat to shit I think aggies are now playing like the team ppl were predicting as a top 5 team coming into the year.
 
Br@ssknux said:
6. Purdue +21 @Ohio State: The public is all over this dog, but Purdue as a road dog is an auto play for me, and the way OSU has looked at home this year, especially in the red zone against good defenses makes it seem unlikely that they'll be able to cover a number this big against a good defensive team like Purdue. Also, Ohio State's secondary against good teams has been shaky, and all the OSU fans I talk to(and they are everywhere) tell me that they don't have anyone they have faith in to cover David Bell. Purdue is now 8-2 as a road dog since '17 under Brohm, 18-7 as a dog overall and 10-3 against ranked opponents. Maybe they'll get blown out and the OSU talent(especially with Garrett Wilson back)will shine through, but Purdue has done nothing to indicate they aren't a great play in this scenario.
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This has to be an over game.

Last week is obviously what hinders this cap somewhat but at worst... backdoor will be open methinks..
 
B.A.R. said:
This has to be an over game.

Last week is obviously what hinders this cap somewhat but at worst... backdoor will be open methinks..
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It's funny I was thinking the same but was gunshy at open after being burned by OSU totals the last couple of weeks. If I could ignore those beatings I took, I would have jumped on the over Sunday.
 
11. Kentucky -21 @ Vanderbilt: I've actually liked Kentucky all year, and they've won me several bets, but the streak ended last week as the Wildcats dropped a close one to Tennessee as a 1 point dog. They never did stop Tennessee all night, and you could argue it was one of the worst defensive performances of the year by anyone as Tennessee averaged a whopping 9.8 yards per play, which included allowing Hendon Hooker to average 15.8 yards per pass attempt. Despite all that, and despite Wil Levis playing one of his worst games of the year, there the Wildcats were, with the ball on the last drive with an opportunity to win the game with a TD. There's no doubt that Mark Stoops and his staff will have all kinds of ammunition to use coming out of that game, and now the Wildcats get to play at Vandy, the perfect get-right opponent. They're also a get-right opponent for me in the home dog roe because they simply do not cover as a home dog, having gone 4-15 ATS in that role since 2017. Predictably, Vandy has no unit that compares favorably to Kentucky in a unit by unit matchup, with a huge mismatch on the lines. This looks like a 3807 type game to me.
 
12. NC State +2 @Wake Forest: This shapes up as a good matchup for NC State for a couple reasons. First, although Wake has proven that they can be explosive on offense, they've also proven that they can give up gobs of points to just about anyone, and other than an increasingly head scratching easy win over Virginia, they've given up heavy points to any competent offense. NC State is not great on offense, but they certainly qualify as competent, as they rank 54th in yards per play on offense. Defensively, they are very solid, having held 5 teams under 300 total yards this year, including Florida State on the road last week. Their forte is pass defense(12th) and 3rd down defense(3rd) which just happen to be the main features of Wake's attack. Wake's bubble burst last week, and teams in their position usually follow their first loss up with another subpar effort the following week. NC State has a solid edge over Wake when they have the ball, and defensively they are strong enough to give Wake problems in their passing game. I think the Wolfpack are the better squad here.
 
13. Arkansas -2.5 @LSU: LSU is so confusing to me. I thought they would be a shell of themselves last week in Tuscaloosa...well, check that...they WERE a shell of themselves last weekend in Tuscaloosa, but somehow summoned up all the cajones they had and gave everything they had to Alabama, almost resulting in one of the more surprising upsets of the past decade, as they had the ball late in the 4th with a chance to take the lead. Can they maintain this level of play again this week? This time, an Arkansas team that would love nothing more than to take advantage of a rare opportunity to bully the Tigers comes in. On paper, I can't see how LSU can match up with the Hogs offense, and Kendall Briles should be able to scheme up against LSU's secondary, which has several guys playing that weren't sniffing their two deep at the beginning of the year. I show the Hogs as having a major advantage in just about every unit matchup, and there's no doubt that the Hogs would like nothing better than to come into BR and put one on the Tigers. My numbers would indicate that Arkansas shoud be a significantly bigger favorite than this.
 
Br@ssknux said:
3. Minnesota +6 @Iowa: The Gophers belched out a clunker last week at home against my Illini, although I have to mention that Illinois has been a very dangerous double digit dog over the last 3 seasons. By my count that's the 6th time they've won outright as a double digit dog since they had that huge upset as a 30 point dog against Wisconsin in October of 2019. Not bad! Ok, back to the Gophers. They stunk last week, but when they've stunk at home previously (a lackluster 31-26 home win over Miami and an unconscionable loss to Bowling Green) they responded with stalwart performances in the next game(Colorado, Purdue), both on the road. Despite the tough loss, they still have everything in front of them as they control their own destiny in the Big Ten West, and it starts this week against an Iowa team that doesn't figure to be able to move the ball much against their defense. Iowa's defense is very good, but their offense remains one of the worst in FBS, and even though they are likely to be better off without the banged up Spencer Petras, PJ Fleck and his staff will have a week to prepare for backup QB Alex Padilla. Iowa struggles like crazy to run it, so any success for Iowa will likely come from their passing game. Minnesota will also struggle with Iowa's defense, but they are in a better position to have some success than Iowa's offense is because Tanner Morgan has the ability to be effective in the passing game, and Iowa has shown that you can throw on them. Morgan isn't consistent, but if he wakes up on the right side of the bed and has a hot day passing, Minnesota is probably a better than 50/50 shot to win this game. They have shown the ability to bounce back, they'll be motivated and matchup favors them in my opinion. 6 is a generous amount, so I'll take it.
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Last week the Gophers were looking ahead to this game, weren’t they?
 
M.W. said:
Last week the Gophers were looking ahead to this game, weren’t they?
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You wouldn't think they are good enough to take an opponent for granted, they might not have consciously known it, but I might think they were. Trophy games are a big deal for the Big Ten West teams and PJ Fleck has made a priority of getting some of those trophies. They got the Axe, couldn't keep it. The one he hasn't won is Floyd of Rosedale which is the Iowa game. Iowa - Minnesota is a big rivalry. In the ML dog thread last week I mentioned that was their on deck game. Iowa has won like 6 or 7 straight, so Iowa wouldn't tend to look ahead to an opponent and trophy they own, but chances are Minny would.
 
14.@UCLA -16.5 v Colorado: The Buffaloes are coming off a great win at home last week against Oregon State, but the Beavers are snakebitten as a road favorite, so cosmic things happen to them in that role. It had to be cosmic because Colorado is significantly below average in just about every conceivable category. They can't run the ball(126th) they can't throw it (108th), they stink on 3rd down(118th), they can't stop the run(115th), the can't stop pressure the QB(130th), etc etc. You get the drift. UCLA has a balanced offensive attack, and all indications are that QB DTR will be back this week. In 3 conference road games, Colorado has been outgained by 189, 334 and 227 yards. and didn't sniff a cover in any of the 3 games. UCLA is stout enough on the lines to continue that run of futility, and Colorado certainly doesn't appear to be capable of putting 2 good performances together in a row, Their lack of offense won't allow it.
 
15. Washington State +14 @Oregon: This is more a play on scenario and situation than anything else. Washington State's players have handled the departure of HC Nick Rolovich well. IN their road games, they've beaten Arizona State and Cal handily after all the unpleasantness, and they've really proven themselves to be a resourceful team. QB Jayden Delaura has settled in and they've been able to have success in recent days. Oregon remains a bad home favorite, and they've got a monster game with Utah to look forward to next week, so I think Oregon's focus might be a little inconsistent. On the flip side Washington State is a good road dog and I think they're set up to give the Ducks a handful here.
 
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Br@ssknux said:
15. Washington State +14 @Oregon: This is more a play on scenario and situation than anything else. Washington State's players have handled the departure of HC Nick Rolovich well. IN their road games, they've beaten Arizona State and Cal handily after all the unpleasantness, and they've really proven themselves to be a resourceful team. QB Jayden Delaura has settled in and they've been able to have success in recent days. Oregon remains a bad home favorite, and they've got a monster game with Utah to look forward to next week, so I think Oregon's focus might be a little inconsistent. On the flip side Washington State is a good road dog and I think they're set up to give the Ducks a handful here.
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only way to play this one, i have no doubt ducks will not make it out with only 1 loss,, someone will clip them eventually, dunno if it be these guys but think it be hard fought.
 
Really like your sentence that begins with Wake’s bubble being burst last week. I always look for this type of situation and seldom pass on one
But I see no line on this game. ??
 
bull said:
Really like your sentence that begins with Wake’s bubble being burst last week. I always look for this type of situation and seldom pass on one
But I see no line on this game. ??
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it was 1.5 or 2 last i checked.
 
Br@ssknux said:
13. Arkansas -2.5 @LSU: LSU is so confusing to me. I thought they would be a shell of themselves last week in Tuscaloosa...well, check that...they WERE a shell of themselves last weekend in Tuscaloosa, but somehow summoned up all the cajones they had and gave everything they had to Alabama, almost resulting in one of the more surprising upsets of the past decade, as they had the ball late in the 4th with a chance to take the lead. Can they maintain this level of play again this week? This time, an Arkansas team that would love nothing more than to take advantage of a rare opportunity to bully the Tigers comes in. On paper, I can't see how LSU can match up with the Hogs offense, and Kendall Briles should be able to scheme up against LSU's secondary, which has several guys playing that weren't sniffing their two deep at the beginning of the year. I show the Hogs as having a major advantage in just about every unit matchup, and there's no doubt that the Hogs would like nothing better than to come into BR and put one on the Tigers. My numbers would indicate that Arkansas shoud be a significantly bigger favorite than this.
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lsu been such a pain in my ass all year, i lean same way as you but i cant help to think i might be better off just staying away from these fuckers altogether! there no doubt numbers point to this line being short which honestly scares me even more!! could be these guys gonna wild out for coach O final games rest the way, im sure they all love him, or appears that way anyways, the swamp at night never a easy task, think with so many games i like this week it never a bad idea to pass on ones that make me feel quezzy! hopefully all this doubt is for nothing and im kicking myself as you cash, i can live with that tho.. gl
 
Br@ssknux said:
7. Mississippi State +6 @Auburn: Mississippi State is a team whose stat rankings don't really do it justice. They always look a bit worse on paper than in practice from a yards per play perspective because they really don't try to run, but rather use a short passing game to move the ball down the field It results in weak per play numbers, but the rack up sizable amounts of yardage and fare well on 3rd down. Defensively, they've been strong all year, and even with their per play numbers looking like they do, I still have them with the overall edge on paper in this matchup. Auburn has been adequate on defense, but I don't see a scenario where MSU doesn't do what they usually do, which is cause fits for the opposing defense by converting 3rd downs and completing passes in clutch situations. Defensively, MSU has been stout against the run, and that's what Auburn likes to do. MSU has already won at Texas A&M and covered 3 of 4 on the road with the only non cover being at Memphis, and the Bulldogs outgained Memphis by 100+ in that game but fell victim to the "Memphis Tigers home dog pixie dust." This game looks like it will come down to the wore, and I don't see it being an overly high scoring game. I'll definitely take the points here.
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You make very good points here, but the one thing I can't get out my mind is the Auburn home voodoo. They are the all time luck box team in that department imo...BOL great looking card for you.
 
Timh said:
You make very good points here, but the one thing I can't get out my mind is the Auburn home voodoo. They are the all time luck box team in that department imo...BOL great looking card for you.
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i got to casino and it was really cheap to buy aub down to -3 so hoping we see a close game tigers win by 4-6 :) i just couldnt resist when i saw -4 and it was only -130 to take to -3. think aub the better team and nix been much better this year,
 
2daBank said:
i got to casino and it was really cheap to buy aub down to -3 so hoping we see a close game tigers win by 4-6 :) i just couldnt resist when i saw -4 and it was only -130 to take to -3. think aub the better team and nix been much better this year,
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Seems like most CFB is 10 cents per half point and they don't shade 3 and 7 like they do in the NFL, makes it easy to take dogs at -120 to buy the hook on those numbers
 
8-6-1 Week. Could have been better, but I had some fortunate bounces as well. Coming off a 4-9 week, at least it wasn't a disaster.
 
Sometimes you realize how important it is to have the best number. Getting 6 with Minny instead of the 4 at game time and the 14 with Wazzou instead of the 13/13.5 game time were meaningful to the overall outcome. When I look back, it is crazy how totals up and down can swing on a couple of half points here or there.
 
s--k said:
Sometimes you realize how important it is to have the best number. Getting 6 with Minny instead of the 4 at game time and the 14 with Wazzou instead of the 13/13.5 game time were meaningful to the overall outcome. When I look back, it is crazy how totals up and down can swing on a couple of half points here or there.
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This is such a great point. In my usual timing, I'm writing these on Thursday or Friday and it's why my usual total of games is 12 or 13 rather than 15 because I drop a couple games due to line moves. Had I waited until Friday (and that Minny line actually dropped to 3.5 for awhile) there's no way I would have been able to justify that line when 6 was available previously and it would have been dropped. Since I wrote everything up earlier, I had more plays. But line value is everything. Same with Arkansas. There were 3's later in the week.
 
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