Week 6 Writeups and Hopefully Feedback

[Br@ssknux]

Last week was terrible, a 4-9 mark to bring the season total to 34-29-2 (54%). It was a frustrating week, with the Duke +6 loser being the capper for a lot of confusing outcomes. Usually, when I reflect on the plays after the outcome, I can see the mistakes I made, but last week, there were things that happened(Virginia Tech's rushing offense grinding Pitt to cornmeal for example) that nobody really could have predicted. Chalk it up to some wonky outcomes and move on.

Nothing really happened last week to get me fired up like Ryan Day did, but I do wan to mention again that I think we are seeing a much bigger proliferation of front door covers than the customary backdoor covers that we're all used to. Penn State did it to Northwestern, we had the aforementioned Notre Dame/Duke ending, and I'm sure I missed some others. I'm typically a dog bettor, so part of my strategy is being able to visualize a back door cover, but this year, the favorites covering late have seemingly dwarfed the number of times a dog has scored late to get within the number. I even got one myself(and I'm serious when I say I can't recall another one previously) when Iowa punched in a late TD against Western Michigan. One thing I am committed to doing is fully acknowledge when I get one if those. So far I am 1 for (Iowa) and 3 against (Texas Tech v Oregon, Georgia Tech v Ole Miss and Duke last week against ND). Hopefully some back doors will come as well. As I've mentioned before, if you are on the "right side" of every game you get, I estimate you'll win about 65% of them. Not sure what others think about that. On to the week.


Missouri +5.5 LOSS (Now 1-4 on horrific front doors)
Oklahoma +5.5 WIN
Marshall +7 PUSH
UCLA -3.5 WIN
Texas A&M +1.5 LOSS
Syracuse +10 LOSS
Purdue +3 LOSS
Arkansas State +16 LOSS
Georgia -14 WIN
Michigan -18.5 WIN
Georgia Tech +20 WIN
Wyoming +6 WIN
Cal +7.5 LOSS

6-6-1

1, @MIssouri +5.5 v LSU: I got this at 6 a couple days ago and if you're willing to buy up to -125 you can still find it, but 5 and 5.5 are pretty much available everywhere for -115 or less. This one is likely to be a shootout as both pass offenses are likely to have major advantages against the respective pass defenses, but you can't find a metric anywhere on LSU's defense(other than MAYBE their pass rush) that rates as even average, let alone good. The Tigers are 117th in yards per pass attempt allowed, 117th in coverage on PFF and 127th on 3rd down. They're 116th in yards per play overall and even 104th in yards per rush attempt despite playing against some rush offenses that aren't setting the world on fire in the trenches. They just gave up 700 yards and more than 8 yads per play to Ole Miss last week The major problem they are going to have in this game is in the pass game however. Missouri ranks 4th in yards per pass attempt, and they have Luther Burden who has probably been the most productive receiver in the country on a down to down basis. Nobody on LSU's defense can guard him, and the Tigers also have Theo Wease and Mookie Copper who are catching balls at an efficient rate from Brady Cook. Cook himself has shown tons of improvement, averaging 10.4 yards per attempt and an 11/0 ratio. On the other side of the ball. LSU will undoubtedly have success offensively against the Mizzou pass defense, but I don't think Daniels will be able to burn them on the ground so they might be a little one dimensional. Also, although Mizzou will give up some passing yards, they aren't among the dregs of the country against the pass like LSU is, ranking 48th in yards per pass attempt against and 54th in their PFF coverage grade. LSU already has 2 losses, so their dreams of getting to the National playoff are probably up in smoke, and this might be one of the biggest games in Columbia in awhile as the Tigers are still undefeated and should have a great crowd and an A game effort for LSU. Definitely like the home dog here.

This was a winning bet. Basically went how I wrote it up. Both teams will score a ton, I trust Mizzou's defense a little more, take the home dog +. Last play of game pick 6 for front door only way it lost, and trust me, I was expecting it.

 

[Br@ssknux]

2. Oklahoma +5.5 v Texas: I really hope Oklahoma doesn't win this game because if they do, they have an inside track to the Big 12 title game and probably have a legit shot for the playoff because I don't see a lot of teams in the Big 12 that have a solid shot of knocking them off. Having said that, I really do see this as a close game. Last years complete ass kicking by Texas ended a stretch of 8 out of 9 years in which this game was decided by a score or less. Last year was a bit of an anomaly as Taylor Gabriel was hurt so Oklahoma had to employ an absurd wildcat type offense that had no shot to do anything, leading to a 49-0 beatdown that they've been reminded of for the past 364 days. This year is a different story as Gabriel will be back healthy, and Oklahoma's defense is nowhere near as bad as the unit Venables was running out there last year. Their stats are skewed a bit due to the competition, but there's no doubt the defense has performed well. They're ranked 19th in yards per play and 7th in 3rd down conversions, and PFF has them graded out as the 2nd best defense in the country and the #1 rushing defense. I don't think either of these teams are going to be able to run effectively, so it's going to be decided by the pass offenses. Both teams have been solid there, but I think I trust Gabriel a little bit more than Ewers, who for whatever reason has not fared well in high profile Big 12 games. When you consider the history of this series along with the added motivation Oklahoma has after getting embarrassed last year, I think there's a good amount of value in 5.5 points.

Good play here. Texas had to rely on fake punts and trick plays to stay in the game in the first half because OU was dominating them at the LOS. They figured it out, but OU was clearly the right side.

 

[Br@ssknux]

3. Marshall +7(-120) v NC State: It looks like NC State is giving up on the whole Brennan Armstrong/Robert Anae reunion as they've decided to go with MJ Morris this week at QB. That's welcome news for Wolfpack fans because Armstrong has been painful to watch. He can't complete a pass anywhere downfield, and if there's any open receivers, he hasn't seen them because the only success the offense has had is when he aborts the mission and takes off. Morris will be a welcome sight because he had some nice games last year when he came in relief as a true freshman for the various clowns NC State had out there after Devin Leary was lost for the year. In his first game he led a huge comeback against Virginia Tech and then put up good stats in a couple subsequent weeks before he cooled off substantially and eventually hurt himself and missed the rest of the year. Marshall comes into town at 4-0, and although they haven't looked all that great, unlike last week they are finding themselves in the role they love, a road underdog, and frankly on the road in any role. Last week they were home favorites against Old Dominion and predictably, they didn't cover. As bad as they have been at home under Huff, they are that good on the road. He is 5-0 ATS as a road dog since he's been in Huntington and 9-3 ATS on the road overall. In their only road game this year, they completely took apart East Carolina, and I think they match up pretty well against NC State in this one. My guess is that there's more ailing NC State than just Armstrong, and their stats bear that out. Marshall is a Jekyl and Hyde type on defense, having been gashed on the ground, but ranking #1 in yards per pass attempt against and #2 in passer rating against so far this year. I don't think Nc State will have any success throwing the ball(122nd in yards per pass attempt)and they aren't the type of team that's going to exploit Marshall's run defense either, as they come in as the 87th ranked rush offense. I doubt anyone would be too surprised if Marshall showed up a winner in the out of town scoreboard at the end of the day, and they'll be fired up to compete. I'll take the 7 with a more than capable road dog against a favorite that's been exposed as a fraud.

Whatever. NC State had 400 yards, went 3-12 on 3rd down, threw 3 picks and somehow scored 48 points. How? Marshall went 1-5 on 4th down and gave them 3 Turnovers as well. It's really a hard game to figure out, but I'm glad 1 bought the half point to 7.

 

[Br@ssknux]

Typically this is where you would find a Rutgers +13 writeup against Wisconsin, but I'm not doing it this week. 13 just isn't enough for me in this one because I remain convinced that the Badgers will have a horseshoe shoved 2 feet up their asses all year. I can totally see Rutgers play well all day but find themselves incapable of punching in a score or two only to have some maniac from Wisconsin take a pick 6 in the final minute for a front door cover. I like Rutgers a bit here, but they won't fool me into that heartbreak.

 

[bones]

It is not a football week without your thread. Thank you, as always

 

[Br@ssknux]

4. @UCLA -3.5 v Washington State: I was thinking that you would be able to get a flat 3 by now with UCLA, but that line has stayed at 3.5 despite more than 65% of the public being on the dog. Both teams were off last week but the last time we saw them, UCLA was losing at Utah and Washington State was beating Oregon State in Pullman. UCLA looked terrible on offense, which was not all that surprising considering they were starting true freshman Donte Moore in his first Pac 12 road start, and despite all of his struggles, they stuck with him to take his lumps the entire game. Moore is now coming off 2 weeks of practice with Chip Kelly, a coach who obviously believes in him, and he'll be at home against a much different defense than Utah in Sal Lake City. Wazzou held up ok for parts of the game against Oregon State, as Cam Ward blitzkrieged the Beavers in the first half and built a lead. Having watched that game holding a WSU ticket, had that game lasted another 5 or so minutes, the outcome might have been different because the Cougs could not stop that Oregon State rushing attack. Overall, the Cougar defense is a far cry from what Moore saw two weeks ago, and UCLA's defense might be significantly better than what Cam Ward has seen so far as well. I say "might" because they haven't faced much in the way of explosive offense but they've been dominant in the games they've played. He'll definitely see pressure, as UCLA has 14 sacks in their games so far and grade out as the second best pass rushing team in the country per PFF. Ultimately, I think the UCLA offense will get some class relief from what they saw last while Wazzou will see a step up. UCLA should be able to run the ball with Carson Steele, which will open up things for Moore to do what his coaching staff thinks he's capable of. I have UCLA with a pretty sizable head to head statistical edge, and the Bruins are coming off a loss while the Cougs are still unbeaten. That leads me to think there might be some extra urgency for the Bruins at home here so I'm laying the relatively short number. Not a great spot for the Cougars.

Everything I said here basically happened. It shouldn't have been as close as it was. Moore threw a 99 yard pick 6 on the last play of the 1st half or this would have been a rocking chair game. 470-216 total yards and Washington State had a final drive to potentially tie the game. Thank goodness that drive went the same way the rest of them did.

 

[Br@ssknux]

It is not a football week without your thread. Thank you, as always

Thanks Bones

 

[Br@ssknux]

5. @Texas A&M +1.5 v Alabama: I would never think that I'd be running to the window to get a bet in for Jimbo Fisher catching only a point against Nick Saban and Alabama, but here we are. A&M comes in at 4-1, but they still have all of their goals in front of them as they can still certainly win the SEC West and have a shot at getting into the playoff. Their loss was a pretty poor effort at Miami, but that game doesn't have a whole lot of relevance here because this Alabama offense doesn't resemble the Miami offense in any way shape or form. They do, however, have a closer resemblance to Auburn and Arkansas, the two latest victims of an A&M defense that has been running roughshod over teams recently. They rank highly in all of the traditional metrics that I typically consider, including yards per play(8th) and yards per rush(12th), but they're also great on 3rd down and especially in exerting pressure on the opposing offense, ranking #1 with a bullet in sack rate as well as overall defensive havoc. When you look at the teams they've played, especially Auburn and Arkansas, those teams are primarily looking to run and have had success historically in doing that, and A&M completely shut those two teams down. they held Auburn to 200 total yards and KJ Jefferson and Arkansas to 174. Jefferson, in my opinion resembles Jalen Milroe with his ability to run the RPO and also throw the ball accurately downfield. Bama also has had all kinds of trouble running the ball effectively(69th in yards per attempt) and they rank dead last in sack rate allowed. That is a terrible matchup for a defense that has been wreaking havoc in backfields all year. On the other side of the ball, Bama has been much better lately on defense, but their recent trips to true road games have not gone well for them. A&M has some solid playmakers on offense, and Max Johnson is no slouch so don't think there's much of a drop off from Connor Wegmann. I'm a big fan of WRs Ainias Smith and especially Evan Stewart who caught a couple TDs last year in Tuscaloosa. This A&M team has beaten Bama 2 years ago and almost took them down last year, both as 17+ point dogs, so there's no chance they'll be affected by the Bama aura. The kicker is that there are whispers that Milroe is battling a hamstring injury. If he's not out there I don't see any evidence that Bama can move the ball on this A&M defense, and if he does play, he might not be at his best or might get hurt during the game. Even if this line moved all the way to pick, and probably even higher, I'd play the Aggies.

Burton and Bond burned the Aggies. I figured Milroe would get a bomb, maybe two, but those two outplayed the A&M guys. Not a great idea to trust Jimbo there.

 

[Carolina Guy]

I'm on all of these except the Marshall Moo U game. LFG!

 

[2daBank]

Im much happier this week as so far I don’t really disagree with any of yours!! I can’t see myself playing the Aggies/bama, I guess if yin made me I would prob pick bama but I have no desire to bet either one of them! That game is all you brotha! Had I bet early I would have played the under but now it prob a pass for me. Like all the others so far!

 

[B.A.R.]

Typically this is where you would find a Rutgers +13 writeup against Wisconsin, but I'm not doing it this week. 13 just isn't enough for me in this one because I remain convinced that the Badgers will have a horseshoe shoved 2 feet up their asses all year. I can totally see Rutgers play well all day but find themselves incapable of punching in a score or two only to have some maniac from Wisconsin take a pick 6 in the final minute for a front door cover. I like Rutgers a bit here, but they won't fool me into that heartbreak.

You know what, I know exactly what you mean here. I can envision some stupidity shortly after "jump around".

 

[B.A.R.]

4. @UCLA -3.5 v Washington State: I was thinking that you would be able to get a flat 3 by now with UCLA, but that line has stayed at 3.5 despite more than 65% of the public being on the dog. Both teams were off last week but the last time we saw them, UCLA was losing at Utah and Washington State was beating Oregon State in Pullman. UCLA looked terrible on offense, which was not all that surprising considering they were starting true freshman Donte Moore in his first Pac 12 road start, and despite all of his struggles, they stuck with him to take his lumps the entire game. Moore is now coming off 2 weeks of practice with Chip Kelly, a coach who obviously believes in him, and he'll be at home against a much different defense than Utah in Sal Lake City. Wazzou held up ok for parts of the game against Oregon State, as Cam Ward blitzkrieged the Beavers in the first half and built a lead. Having watched that game holding a WSU ticket, had that game lasted another 5 or so minutes, the outcome might have been different because the Cougs could not stop that Oregon State rushing attack. Overall, the Cougar defense is a far cry from what Moore saw two weeks ago, and UCLA's defense might be significantly better than what Cam Ward has seen so far as well. I say "might" because they haven't faced much in the way of explosive offense but they've been dominant in the games they've played. He'll definitely see pressure, as UCLA has 14 sacks in their games so far and grade out as the second best pass rushing team in the country per PFF. Ultimately, I think the UCLA offense will get some class relief from what they saw last while Wazzou will see a step up. UCLA should be able to run the ball with Carson Steele, which will open up things for Moore to do what his coaching staff thinks he's capable of. I have UCLA with a pretty sizable head to head statistical edge, and the Bruins are coming off a loss while the Cougs are still unbeaten. That leads me to think there might be some extra urgency for the Bruins at home here so I'm laying the relatively short number. Not a great spot for the Cougars.

Excellent write-up.

Utah is simply as tough as it gets for a frosh first road start. Dante is a star in the making, but that was the perfect "lumps" game. He'll be better in 6 weeks due to that.

 

[Br@ssknux]

6. Syracuse +10(-117) @North Carolina: Syracuse is coming off a pretty poor performance last week against Clemson, but it seemed like that was one of those games where everything seemed to go wrong. A couple of debilitating turnovers, one on a botched pitchout that was returned to the 5 yard line put them behind the 8 ball and Clemson never looked back. When you line these two teams up, I think they look very similar, and I don't think North Carolina will be able to run on the Orange, as Syracuse is ranked 19th in yards per attempt(after facing some good rushing teams) while the Tar Heels have struggled to run it two weeks in a row against Pitt and Minnesota, who are both inferior to Syracuse's run defense. UNC only managed 2 yards per carry against Pitt, who then immediately turned around and got run into the ground by a previously effeminate Virginia Tech run game. Luke Maye is a great QB, but he's been underwhelming for the past 9 or 10 games and has only a 5/4 ratio against some middling defenses this year. Syracuse grades #4 in the country in coverage and #2 in tackling despite last week, so I expect a good bounce back from the defense as well as Shrader. UNC is coming off a bye, but it might be a little bit of a sleepy game for them with Miami on deck. If Syracuse can battle on 3rd down, which is the one area that UNC has been very good offensively, then I think they have a shot in this one.

Holy shit, I couldn't have possibly missed worse than this one. You've got a multitude of dogs to choose from and this is what you land on? It wasn't even as close as the score indicated.

 

[Br@ssknux]

Excellent write-up.

Utah is simply as tough as it gets for a frosh first road start. Dante is a star in the making, but that was the perfect "lumps" game. He'll be better in 6 weeks due to that.

And since Moore is a tough as nails Michigander, he's a great bet to bounce back....

 

[Timh]

4. @UCLA -3.5 v Washington State: I was thinking that you would be able to get a flat 3 by now with UCLA, but that line has stayed at 3.5 despite more than 65% of the public being on the dog. Both teams were off last week but the last time we saw them, UCLA was losing at Utah and Washington State was beating Oregon State in Pullman. UCLA looked terrible on offense, which was not all that surprising considering they were starting true freshman Donte Moore in his first Pac 12 road start, and despite all of his struggles, they stuck with him to take his lumps the entire game. Moore is now coming off 2 weeks of practice with Chip Kelly, a coach who obviously believes in him, and he'll be at home against a much different defense than Utah in Sal Lake City. Wazzou held up ok for parts of the game against Oregon State, as Cam Ward blitzkrieged the Beavers in the first half and built a lead. Having watched that game holding a WSU ticket, had that game lasted another 5 or so minutes, the outcome might have been different because the Cougs could not stop that Oregon State rushing attack. Overall, the Cougar defense is a far cry from what Moore saw two weeks ago, and UCLA's defense might be significantly better than what Cam Ward has seen so far as well. I say "might" because they haven't faced much in the way of explosive offense but they've been dominant in the games they've played. He'll definitely see pressure, as UCLA has 14 sacks in their games so far and grade out as the second best pass rushing team in the country per PFF. Ultimately, I think the UCLA offense will get some class relief from what they saw last while Wazzou will see a step up. UCLA should be able to run the ball with Carson Steele, which will open up things for Moore to do what his coaching staff thinks he's capable of. I have UCLA with a pretty sizable head to head statistical edge, and the Bruins are coming off a loss while the Cougs are still unbeaten. That leads me to think there might be some extra urgency for the Bruins at home here so I'm laying the relatively short number. Not a great spot for the Cougars.

Great writeup here Brass, I like both under and UCLA though not correlated. I think UCLA will be more physical on the LOS and have success running the ball vs. that WSU front 7 on D. Don't see WSU having much luck on the ground and figure their offense to be pretty much one dimensional and could put them in even more compromising position if they fall behind and get in adverse down and distance. Your points about class relief here are well taken. BOL on the weekend!

 

[KJ]

Great writeup here Brass, I like both under and UCLA though not correlated. I think UCLA will be more physical on the LOS and have success running the ball vs. that WSU front 7 on D. Don't see WSU having much luck on the ground and figure their offense to be pretty much one dimensional and could put them in even more compromising position if they fall behind and get in adverse down and distance. Your points about class relief here are well taken. BOL on the weekend!

Might have to eat crow but I absolutely love UCLA in this match up. I don't think WSU stands a chance of holding up defensively against the surge they're about to see.

 

[2daBank]

Might have to eat crow but I absolutely love UCLA in this match up. I don't thing WSU stands a chance of holding up defensively against the surge they're about to see.

Remember last year when udub offense was doing basically what they are now and lighting up everyone, then they went to uvla and bruins d gave Penix a lot of trouble early in that game. Obviously he still ended up w yards and points but ucla controlled and won the game. I think they can do something similar here but my only play so far is on steele rush yards, obviously him being effective goes a long way to which side gets their way. That offense wazzu runs been looking so good but you get them out of their timing and pace and then make them sit on sideline they can be cooled off. Then you keep leaving on their d who used to playing with a lead! If I bet a side it be bruins but I might just stick with steele prop.

 

[Br@ssknux]

7. Purdue +3(-116) v Iowa: This line has been sitting at 2.5 for awhile, but it finally got to a point where I could buy it at a reasonable price up to 3. Everyone is on Iowa, but the line is stubborn where it is, which might mean that books are looking for Iowa money. Iowa is down to their backup quarterback, and I'm sure they aren't happy about that because they were playing Cade McNamara when he couldn't hardly walk rather than go to him. Iowa obviously can't throw the ball, but they can't run it either. There's absolutely no imagination in their run sets, so it's no wonder they're sitting at 97th in yards per rush attempt despite having played Utah State and Western Michigan. They will need to rely almost exclusively on their defense and special teams to get points in this game. Don't get me wrong...they can do it, but typically when that situation comes up, the team isn't favored to win the game unless they are playing a sad sack team. Purdue isn't great at this point, but I think they made some strides last week. Defensively they are looking better each week, and Ryan Walters knows what he's doing. When he was DC at Illinois, they started out poorly for the first few weeks, but once they figured things out, they never looked back. They have some NFL talent on their defense, and Walters is smart enough to not let TE Erick All beat him, the guy who represents the only threat on the Iowa offense. Defensively, Iowa is great in coverage, but they absolutely cannot rush the passer and they've also not been very good against the run while Purdue has improved greatly running the ball since they went to Tyrone Tracy and a little more of Dylan Downey. I think Purdue picked up some belief and a little swagger last week and the fact that this line is sitting as low as it is tells me that some educated money is on that side. Walters has had no problem in his matchups with Brian Ferentz (who hasn't) and I think Purdue is going to get the win in this one.

Hudson Card not good enough, and Graham Harrell not smart enough to beat a good defense on the road. I also said "Walters is smart enough to not let TE Erick All beat him, the guy who represents the only threat on the Iowa offense." and All caught 5 of the 6 fucking passes Iowa completed all day. That and a fluke 70 yard TD run were all Iowa had, but it was enough.

 

[Br@ssknux]

8. Arkansas State +16 @Troy: There is no way in the world I would have considered making this bet several weeks ago, but the difference that true freshman QB Jaylen Raynor has made has been remarkable. Since he's come in, Arkansas State's offense hasn't really been stopped. In 2 plus games, he's had 10 TD passes and just one INT and is averaging 13.3 yards per pass attempt. He'll obviously be playing the best defense he's seen so far in Troy, but the Trojans have not been setting the world on fire defensively, ranking only 56th in yards per pass attempt against and 64th on 3rd down. Believe it or not, I also show the Arkansas State defense to be relatively competitive with the Troy offense in a couple areas, including against the run. Gunnar Watson has been around forever, but he still throws the ball up for grabs regularly, and has racked up 12 turnover worthy plays already this year, so he's been lucky that he only has 4 INTs for the year. Arky State's defensive numbers are also skewed a bit because they've played Oklahoma and Memphis as well as an above average offense in UMass(believe it or not). Troy is a solid squad, and I like Jon Sumrall, but they played an almost perfect game last week at Georgia State, and I don't think they are built to cover 16 point spreads against an offense that has been very explosive since the switch to the young QB. Sometimes one change can make all the difference in the world for a team, and Raynor might be that guy for Arkansas State. The difference between him and the goofs that were taking snaps before him is the size of the Gulf of Mexico.

Assume a true freshman 3 star recruit at QB is a transformative player and will succeed against a good defense and defensive staff on the road! What can go wrong? I only needed him to be decent and cover 16 against a shaky offense, but this was not a good play and never had a chance.

 

[He Hate Me]

I like all of the plus signs. Feels and looks like that kinda Saturday.

 

[B.A.R.]

6. Syracuse +10(-117) @North Carolina: Syracuse is coming off a pretty poor performance last week against Clemson, but it seemed like that was one of those games where everything seemed to go wrong. A couple of debilitating turnovers, one on a botched pitchout that was returned to the 5 yard line put them behind the 8 ball and Clemson never looked back. When you line these two teams up, I think they look very similar, and I don't think North Carolina will be able to run on the Orange, as Syracuse is ranked 19th in yards per attempt(after facing some good rushing teams) while the Tar Heels have struggled to run it two weeks in a row against Pitt and Minnesota, who are both inferior to Syracuse's run defense. UNC only managed 2 yards per carry against Pitt, who then immediately turned around and got run into the ground by a previously effeminate Virginia Tech run game. Luke Maye is a great QB, but he's been underwhelming for the past 9 or 10 games and has only a 5/4 ratio against some middling defenses this year. Syracuse grades #4 in the country in coverage and #2 in tackling despite last week, so I expect a good bounce back from the defense as well as Shrader. UNC is coming off a bye, but it might be a little bit of a sleepy game for them with Miami on deck. If Syracuse can battle on 3rd down, which is the one area that UNC has been very good offensively, then I think they have a shot in this one.

Great point about who's on deck.

Glad to see someone saw last week's cuse and Clemson game fwiw. I'm not saying Cuse was a bad beat, whatsoever, but that game really turned on those turnovers.

 

[Br@ssknux]

9. @Georgia -14(-115) v Kentucky: My guess is that a lot of people watched these two teams last week and make assumptions that we'll see more of the same this week. Kentucky absolutely bulldozed Florida in Lexington with Ray Davis running roughshod over the Gators, and that is actually an understatement. If you watched that game, you know that Davis could have rushed for as many yards as he felt like..300, 400...Florida had no answer for him. At the same time, Georgia was having all kinds of trouble with an Auburn offense that has had no semblance of a passing game, but no matter, they just kept running. Is this the week that Kirby Smart can finally get his players' attention? I think it is. They'll be playing an undefeated ranked opponent at home at night off a performance that has everyone in the country starting to seriously question whether they give a shit. Also, I think Kentucky is going to be very one dimensional in their first road game of the year. Devin Leary has been a very good quarterback, but so far this year, the only thing he's proven is that his arm is erratic and that he's clearly not 100% healthy. He's only completing 56% of his passes for the year, and it's not like he's been playing a murderer's row of pass defenses. Ball State Eastern Kentucky, Akron and Vanderbilt were the 4 defenses he faced prior to his 9/20, 69 yard stinker last week against Florida. I don't think there's any way in the world Kentucky can compete in this game if they can throw the ball competently. On the other side of the ball Kentucky has great numbers, but again, there's not much we can tell by who they lined up against. I think things are going to come crashing down for the Wildcats this week. If Ray Davis comes in there and runs over Georgia when they know it's coming and they play a competitive game as a result, I'll tip my cap, but I think Georgia is going to show up with an inspired effort, and as such, it's gonna take more than a bunch of muscular line plunges to keep the Wildcats in the game. At this point, I don't think Leary is capable.

After Beck threw the first TD pass I turned the game off and never went back to it. 608-183 yards.

 

[Br@ssknux]

10. Michigan -18.5 @Minnesota: Due to who they've played so far this year, we still don't really know anything about Michigan. We know they're good enough to smack the crap out of Nebraska, but that doesn't tell us much more than Michigan's wins over the cupcakes the Wolverines played in the first few weeks of the season told us. What IS becoming clear, however, is that Minnesota, much like just about 10 other teams in the Big Ten, isn't any good. In the recent past under PJ Fleck, Minnesota has been a solid defensive team who can run it efficiently and throw effectively when it needed to during the 11 years Tanner Morgan played QB there. Not much of this, if any of it is true this year. They've run the ball a little bit against second rate defenses, but Nebraska shut them down in Minneapolis, and you can bet that Michigan will shut them down, especially since they have no fear of a nonexistent Minnesota passing attack. Athan Kaliakmanis was supposed to be some sort of talent at QB, but he can't get anything accomplished downfield. He's shockingly been unable to register a single big time throw this entire year, meaning he hasn't completed any passes that any replacement level chump would be able to complete. With no threat in the passing game, I can't see how Michigan would have any issue stopping the run. Defensively, Minnesota has dropped off significantly. They rank 81st in yards per play against, and 75th against the run, despite Louisiana Lafayette representing the best run offense they've played(by a lot). This is a defense that gave up 400 yards passing and nearly 500 total yards to Northwestern. They can't get off the field on 3rd down(119th in 3rd down conversions against) and they haven't caused any pressure on opposing QBs. Michigan has a significant edge in every category I review, and even in the biggest blowouts, that is a rare occurrence. As I mentioned, we don't know much about these Wolverines, and I'm afraid we won't know much more about them after this game either. It's a 3 team league this year in the Big Ten.

Kaliakmanis had 52 passing yards and 35 of them were on a Hail Mary on the last play of the first half.

 

[Br@ssknux]

Great writeup here Brass, I like both under and UCLA though not correlated. I think UCLA will be more physical on the LOS and have success running the ball vs. that WSU front 7 on D. Don't see WSU having much luck on the ground and figure their offense to be pretty much one dimensional and could put them in even more compromising position if they fall behind and get in adverse down and distance. Your points about class relief here are well taken. BOL on the weekend!

Thanks Timmy. Best of luck to you this week as well.

 

[Br@ssknux]

Great point about who's on deck.

Glad to see someone saw last week's cuse and Clemson game fwiw. I'm not saying Cuse was a bad beat, whatsoever, but that game really turned on those turnovers.

Yeah definitely. Clemson hadn't had a game like that for awhile, so maybe they were due, but sometimes the cards aren't stacked in your favor. Typically that doesn't happen two weeks in a row. Unless you're Illinois, then it happens every week.

 

[Br@ssknux]

11. Georgia Tech +20 @Miami(FL): You're getting GT at their nadir, as they are coming off a seemingly unfathomable outright loss at home to Bowling Green. It's unfathomable only is you are unaware of Georgia Tech's almost cosmic incompetence as a home favorite. It's funny the way that works. Some teams are so bad in certain roles that they are almost destined to turn in a horrific performance, almost as if they morph into a different team. GT is now 1-9 in their last 10 as a home favorite, so it was predictable that they'd be in a close game, and sometimes when that happens, you lose the game. Now they are back in a role that lends them to play competently, and if Mario Cristobal's history as a home favorite translates here, the opposite will be true for the Hurricanes. At Oregon Cristobal was 7-14 as a home favorite in his last 21 in the role, and he's 2-5 so far at Miami. Georgia Tech has had problems on defense, but they are more than capable offensively with a solid scheme. It's a night game, but I think Miami might get caught looking ahead to a road trip in Chapel Hill against a North Carolina team that has won 4 in a row against them. GT has covered 4 of the last 5 against the Canes and all 3 during that stretch when they've been the underdog.

The worst coaching malpractice I can ever remember by Cristobal at the end of this game. Assuming his team would be asleep was not a bad idea. this play was never in doubt

 

[2daBank]

11. Georgia Tech +20 @Miami(FL): You're getting GT at their nadir, as they are coming off a seemingly unfathomable outright loss at home to Bowling Green. It's unfathomable only is you are unaware of Georgia Tech's almost cosmic incompetence as a home favorite. It's funny the way that works. Some teams are so bad in certain roles that they are almost destined to turn in a horrific performance, almost as if they morph into a different team. GT is now 1-9 in their last 10 as a home favorite, so it was predictable that they'd be in a close game, and sometimes when that happens, you lose the game. Now they are back in a role that lends them to play competently, and if Mario Cristobal's history as a home favorite translates here, the opposite will be true for the Hurricanes. At Oregon Cristobal was 7-14 as a home favorite in his last 21 in the role, and he's 2-5 so far at Miami. Georgia Tech has had problems on defense, but they are more than capable offensively with a solid scheme. It's a night game, but I think Miami might get caught looking ahead to a road trip in Chapel Hill against a North Carolina team that has won 4 in a row against them. GT has covered 4 of the last 5 against the Canes and all 3 during that stretch when they've been the underdog.

Really like this also. Im prob gonna be on king and Van Dyke passing props as I think tech can stay close enough canes will continue to throw! I will say I think Cristobal record as a fav could greatly improve with this oc he brought over from houston who worked under Holgerson for many years, this offense is perfect for Van Dyke skill set and think they are gonna be a very dangerous team for the other acc big boys. That said I like king, getting away from Jimbo has made him look like a way better qb! I think this a spot canes could take them lightly when they have a game coming up against unc who has kinda owned them! Gtech 2nd half defense has been so so bad but I think their offense is plenty capable of 24-28 points, that is a huge number when catching 3tds!!! Needless to say I think 57 total is way low. Lot of ways I like to attack this game but taking the points is just as good the rest i think!

 

[HUNT]

Typically this is where you would find a Rutgers +13 writeup against Wisconsin, but I'm not doing it this week. 13 just isn't enough for me in this one because I remain convinced that the Badgers will have a horseshoe shoved 2 feet up their asses all year. I can totally see Rutgers play well all day but find themselves incapable of punching in a score or two only to have some maniac from Wisconsin take a pick 6 in the final minute for a front door cover. I like Rutgers a bit here, but they won't fool me into that heartbreak.

Wisconsin definitely my kryptonite. Always and forever.

 

[Br@ssknux]

12. @Wyoming +6 v Fresno State: Fresno is undefeated and newly ranked, but they have played an anemic schedule. Purdue is better now, but they got them in their first game under a new regime with a first year coach and a new QB. They've also fought Eastern Washington to the death in a 3 point win, then took care of 3 absolute bottom feeders with victories over Nevada, Kent State and an Arizona State team that gifted them 8(!!!) turnovers. Wyoming has been running the ball effectively with transfer Harrison Waylee and played solid defense. Strange things happen in Laramie, and over the course of the year, Wyoming was severely outgained by both Texas Tech and Appalachian State but found a way to come out on top in both games. The difference in schedules is very profound, and as a result of that Fresno looks like a world beater on paper. As I mentioned, when you look closely, you can see several instances of much less than dominant performances and I think Wyoming is resourceful enough to manipulate this one down to the wire.

Fresno exposed a bit here. Wyoming remains a great home dog.

 

[Br@ssknux]

Couple more tomorrow.

 

[2daBank]

12. @Wyoming +6 v Fresno State: Fresno is undefeated and newly ranked, but they have played an anemic schedule. Purdue is better now, but they got them in their first game under a new regime with a first year coach and a new QB. They've also fought Eastern Washington to the death in a 3 point win, then took care of 3 absolute bottom feeders with victories over Nevada, Kent State and an Arizona State team that gifted them 8(!!!) turnovers. Wyoming has been running the ball effectively with transfer Harrison Waylee and played solid defense. Strange things happen in Laramie, and over the course of the year, Wyoming was severely outgained by both Texas Tech and Appalachian State but found a way to come out on top in both games. The difference in schedules is very profound, and as a result of that Fresno looks like a world beater on paper. As I mentioned, when you look closely, you can see several instances of much less than dominant performances and I think Wyoming is resourceful enough to manipulate this one down to the wire.

Soon as I saw this line I wondered how the hell wyo could be getting 6 at home? Love this team as a dog, can’t stand watching them play football but love to back them getting points!!

 

[EL CAPO]

Might have to eat crow but I absolutely love UCLA in this match up. I don't think WSU stands a chance of holding up defensively against the surge they're about to see.

i'd agree but some evidence suggests ucla oline may not be the same bruising unit it was last year - had little trouble running on coastal and like 0 yards vs utah.

UCLA pass d was horrendous last year and has had 0 tests to date.

 

[KJ]

i'd agree but some evidence suggests ucla oline may not be the same bruising unit it was last year - had little trouble running on coastal and like 0 yards vs utah.

UCLA pass d was horrendous last year and has had 0 tests to date.

Wazzou are one of the most heavily bet dogs of the day yet the line moved from 3 to 3.5

I like my chances

 

[Br@ssknux]

13. @Cal +7.5 v Oregon State: This one is kind of a simple handicap, ultimately. Whenever I can get a game where one team is in a role that they thrive in vs a team that's in a role they stink in, I want to try to take advantage of it. We have that here. Justin Wilcox has always been a great dog, as Cal is 14-7 as a dog overall since 2019 and 6-2 as a home dog. On the other hand, the only role that Oregon State under Jonathan Smith has struggled in is this one, as a road favorite in conference. It hasn't happened much, and it didn't start until OSU got good in 2021, but the Beavers are now 1-5 in that role with several outright losses after their outright loss in Pullman as a 3 point favorite 2 weeks ago. When you line up these two teams statistically, you can see why Oregon State should be favored, probably by double digits, but there are so many instances where that was the case in the past and Cal ends up playing the game to a standstill, you have to follow the actual results and learn from them. We should also keep in mind that Cal's numbers get skewed because they are just as bad as a favorite as they are good as a dog. Smart money knows it too, because this line has come down from at least 10 all the way to 7.5. I got it earlier in the week at 9.5, but 7.5 is the best I can find it right now. Given what we know about these two teams in these roles, I'd probably play Cal even if they were only getting a field goal.

If Cal could get one stop and have avoided the turnover in the 4th quarter we cover this. Also, Oregon State went 5-5 on 4th down, almost all of them while in FG range. Their insistence on scoring TDs was very annoying. Take your hat off to Jonathan Smith though. Cal could not stop them, and Cal's offense came to play.

 

[bones]

I like Michigan, Georgia Tech, Wyoming and Cal a lot. I have already bet Cal and will likely take these others.

Just curious, and I know you're busy, did you look at MissState today? I took them -20.5 and wondered if you even considered/

 

[Br@ssknux]

I like Michigan, Georgia Tech, Wyoming and Cal a lot. I have already bet Cal and will likely take these others.

Just curious, and I know you're busy, did you look at MissState today? I took them -20.5 and wondered if you even considered/

I didn't really consider that one bones. I don't trust Mississippi State at this point to cover a sizable number against anyone, but I'd need a hell of a lot more than 20 to play a lower level MAC team at an SEC venue. Lots of variance with those MAC teams also. If things play out logically according to talent you're probably on the right side but that isn't the main indicator most days.

 

[Br@ssknux]

i'd agree but some evidence suggests ucla oline may not be the same bruising unit it was last year - had little trouble running on coastal and like 0 yards vs utah.

UCLA pass d was horrendous last year and has had 0 tests to date.

I think you're right about that Capo. If I looked hard enough I could probably make a good case for the opposite side of all of these plays. And I lose enough to know those cases are the right cases pretty often. I just think Washington State might not be the team to expose those issues today given the spot and their profile.

 

[sevenpointroaddog]

It is not a football week without your thread. Thank you, as always

I'll second that, Bones. Some Saturday cards look really exciting, and some don't look all that great, at first glance. Either way, though, each week we can check out this thread and know we'll get quality write- ups, and likely find something to watch that we may not have considered during the week.

 

[blowoutgm]

Might have to eat crow but I absolutely love UCLA in this match up. I don't think WSU stands a chance of holding up defensively against the surge they're about to see.

Me and you both. I thought I was the Lone Ranger betting UCLA in this spot. Good to see some ICLA live this week!

 

[Br@ssknux]

I think that's gonna be it for this week. Some of the cutting room floor:

-I was very close to laying it with Ohio State. Something is a bit off with Maryland, and they have a profile of getting hammered as a dog in conference under Locksley. They made some strides last year when they covered against Michigan and Ohio State, but they are something like 5-14 as a conference dog under Locksley, and although their numbers have been good this year, they've played nobody and you could see stretches of those games where they had some warts. Ultimately I still don't trust the Ohio State offense enough under McCord to lay that much, but I was close.

-Army should cover against BC but I've had terrible luck with service academy favorites so I passed on that one.

-It seemed like a good spot for Wake and Clawson to be getting 21+ at Clemson since they can stop the run pretty well, but have you seen the numbers on Mitch Griffis? Holy shit, no thanks.

-Was very close to laying with USF against Dilfer, but can a first year regime be that resourceful to win two tossup road games in a row? I handicap it as a yes, but it was too much for me. Plus Dilfer burned me last week despite making an ass of himself.

-Liked Vandy getting a big number in this spot at Florida. They are good in the road dog role and Florida can't be trusted to cover that number, but there's so much uncertainty at the QB position for Vandy that I didn't want to risk it. I won't be surprised in the least if they play Florida to the end though.

-Tulsa is a machine as a road dog, (13-2 in their last 15), but Kevin Wilson is kind of a clown and FAU is due for some good fortune coming off a bye. They are getting more healthy...I've been high on them all year and it hasn't materialized. I was afraid they'd turn into what I thought they were this week so I backed off.

-Good spot for UCONN catching 10 at Rice. I still think they're better than they've shown and Rice usually can't be trusted in a favorite's role. Just got spooked that UCONN being winless might have killed their spirit so I backed off. If they are right in the head, I bet they cover this.

-I can see people backing Arizona State against Colorado in a "who cares" spot for the Buffs, but 3 isn't enough for me against that Buffaloes offense.

Louisville has gotten to 7 and that is VERY enticing given the murderer's row Notre Dame has faced lately and with USC on deck. But I can't get past how lucky Louisville is to be undefeated. Too much on the negative side for both teams to play this. If ND takes care of business here kudos will be in order for Freeman.

I actually wrote and deleted Arizona +21 because it looks like deLaura is not going to play. The backup is ok, but he's a dink and dunk guy and you need to air it out against USC. AZ also has no shot to stop Williams, so they'll have to score a lot, and I don't think the backup has the mettle to pull it off. USC is vulnerable though. Bad sandwich spot for them.

That's it. Thanks to everyone as always!

 

[Br@ssknux]

I'll second that, Bones. Some Saturday cards look really exciting, and some don't look all that great, at first glance. Either way, though, each week we can check out this thread and know we'll get quality write- ups, and likely find something to watch that we may not have considered during the week.

Thanks SPRD for the kind words, one of the nicest guys on this site. And that’s saying something! Best of luck this week! Great handle too.

 

[Inspekdah]

Really like UCLA, A&M, and Purdue. Let’s go!

 

[P-Unit]

10. Michigan -18.5 @Minnesota: Due to who they've played so far this year, we still don't really know anything about Michigan. We know they're good enough to smack the crap out of Nebraska, but that doesn't tell us much more than Michigan's wins over the cupcakes the Wolverines played in the first few weeks of the season told us. What IS becoming clear, however, is that Minnesota, much like just about 10 other teams in the Big Ten, isn't any good. In the recent past under PJ Fleck, Minnesota has been a solid defensive team who can run it efficiently and throw effectively when it needed to during the 11 years Tanner Morgan played QB there. Not much of this, if any of it is true this year. They've run the ball a little bit against second rate defenses, but Nebraska shut them down in Minneapolis, and you can bet that Michigan will shut them down, especially since they have no fear of a nonexistent Minnesota passing attack. Athan Kaliakmanis was supposed to be some sort of talent at QB, but he can't get anything accomplished downfield. He's shockingly been unable to register a single big time throw this entire year, meaning he hasn't completed any passes that any replacement level chump would be able to complete. With no threat in the passing game, I can't see how Michigan would have any issue stopping the run. Defensively, Minnesota has dropped off significantly. They rank 81st in yards per play against, and 75th against the run, despite Louisiana Lafayette representing the best run offense they've played(by a lot). This is a defense that gave up 400 yards passing and nearly 500 total yards to Northwestern. They can't get off the field on 3rd down(119th in 3rd down conversions against) and they haven't caused any pressure on opposing QBs. Michigan has a significant edge in every category I review, and even in the biggest blowouts, that is a rare occurrence. As I mentioned, we don't know much about these Wolverines, and I'm afraid we won't know much more about them after this game either. It's a 3 team league this year in the Big Ten.

was hoping you'd be on the dog here, but I get it.

 

[Br@ssknux]

Typically this is where you would find a Rutgers +13 writeup against Wisconsin, but I'm not doing it this week. 13 just isn't enough for me in this one because I remain convinced that the Badgers will have a horseshoe shoved 2 feet up their asses all year. I can totally see Rutgers play well all day but find themselves incapable of punching in a score or two only to have some maniac from Wisconsin take a pick 6 in the final minute for a front door cover. I like Rutgers a bit here, but they won't fool me into that heartbreak.

LOL! Naturally Rutgers gets a back door to cover. I’m complaining about seeing more front doors than back doors and I deprived myself of a classic back door!

 

[Br@ssknux]

And then………I CANNOT GET OVER HOW OFTEN THIS SHIT HAPPENS ON THE PLAYS I WRITE UP! These ridiculous front door covers. It never stops. I am being 100% serious when I tell you I expected that to happen.

 

[Br@ssknux]

I’m talking about MIssouri/LSU of course

 

[Br@ssknux]

Ended up 6-6-1, which I'll take because of the horrific start. It really was 7-5-1 when you consider the Missouri debacle, but 6-6-1 bring the season long total to 40-35-3. I'll add some comments to each post that had a play in the thread to recap it.

 

[Timh]

I hear you on Mo. Brass just brutal and I also had Army.