Week 11 Discussion Thread

VirginiaCavs

VirginiaCavs

CTG Super Moderator
Staff member
Nov 17 Thu 2022

07:15 PM
311Tennessee Titans+2
-105		O 41
-110
312Green Bay Packers+1 Markets-2
-115		U 41
-110
Nov 20 Sun 2022

12:00 PM
451Carolina Panthers+12½
-113		O 44
-110
452Baltimore Ravens+1 Markets-12½
-107		U 44
-110
12:00 PM
453Cleveland Browns+9
-110		O 47½
-110
454Buffalo Bills+1 Markets-9
-110		U 47½
-110
12:00 PM
455Philadelphia Eagles-9½
-110		O 43½
-110
456Indianapolis Colts+1 Markets+9½
-110		U 43½
-110
12:00 PM
457Washington Commanders-2½
-110		O 40½
-110
458Houston Texans+1 Markets+2½
-110		U 40½
-110
12:00 PM
459New York Jets+3½
-110		O 39
-110
460New England Patriots+1 Markets-3½
-110		U 39
-110
12:00 PM
461Detroit Lions+3½
-109		O 46
-114
462New York Giants+1 Markets-3½
-111		U 46
-106
12:00 PM
463Los Angeles Rams+2½
-105		O 39
-115
464New Orleans Saints+1 Markets-2½
-115		U 39
-105
12:00 PM
465Chicago Bears+2½
+105		O 49
-110
466Atlanta Falcons+1 Markets-2½
-125		U 49
-110
03:05 PM
467Las Vegas Raiders+3
-120		O 42
-110
468Denver Broncos+1 Markets-3
+100		U 42
-110
03:25 PM
471Dallas Cowboys-1½
-110		O 48
-110
472Minnesota Vikings+1 Markets+1½
-110		U 48
-110
03:25 PM
473Cincinnati Bengals-5
-110		O 42½
-110
474Pittsburgh Steelers+1 Markets+5
-110		U 42½
-110
 
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Minnesota dogs at home...

Giants short at home...

Raiders full fade now...

Bears/Falcons a running game dream...
 
Initial thoughts

King Henry might run for 200+ vs GB

Bills line is too high they probably don't cover

Can't see the Rams doing anything without Kupp.

Bears/Atlanta is strange knowing they'll both run & the total is 49. I feel like it will soar over even with the clock running the whole time.

Minny dogged at home zero respect and I lean that way
 
Actually same time zone and indoor game in Minny, guess Dallas traveled back home for the week tonight
 
Bills game this week I think will be very telling about the rest of the season. I'll be honest I don't think they win the division and injuries are the biggest reason why. Not the whole reason but the biggest. Second half game planning & execution have been terrible. The defensive injuries have directly contributed to 2ndh meltdowns- they can't get off the field because they are wearing down. The secondary was getting by with Poyer as the safety net but without him the cbs consistently lose. Tons of missed tackles. Most annoying to me lessons could be learned they are largely ignored. Some of the same reasons we lost @Miami are the same reasons we lost sunday.

Allen is unreal and the Bills are NOTHING without him. But his weaknesses are on display and it has nothing to do with ability. He does not have the Manning/Brady/Rodgers/Mahomes mental aspect of the game mastered. At least not yet. It's like he needs the play to be spectacular or he doesn't want it.
 
Lexington 125 said:
Bills game this week I think will be very telling about the rest of the season. I'll be honest I don't think they win the division and injuries are the biggest reason why. Not the whole reason but the biggest. Second half game planning & execution have been terrible. The defensive injuries have directly contributed to 2ndh meltdowns- they can't get off the field because they are wearing down. The secondary was getting by with Poyer as the safety net but without him the cbs consistently lose. Tons of missed tackles. Most annoying to me lessons could be learned they are largely ignored. Some of the same reasons we lost @Miami are the same reasons we lost sunday.

Allen is unreal and the Bills are NOTHING without him. But his weaknesses are on display and it has nothing to do with ability. He does not have the Manning/Brady/Rodgers/Mahomes mental aspect of the game mastered. At least not yet. It's like he needs the play to be spectacular or he doesn't want it.
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If your Bills don’t win the division I hope my jets do. Us jet fans have been suffering for years. Would be happy if any of them win division as long as it’s not the Pats!
 
As far as this matchup vs the Browns everyone knows Chubb is getting the ball. It's up the this D to stop him & with all the injuries they could have a hard time. Cleveland may very well come out and just pound Chubb, but they have mismatches in the secondary as well. To me the weather is a non factor unless there are whiteouts & 60 mph winds. The injuries to me will be the biggest factor. Edmunds had a setback mid game dealing with groin/heel problems. Need his length to cover tes. Poyer up in the air & it seems as if Tre White is just not ready to play for whatever reason. Benford who originally beat out the #1 pick Elam (who is still banged up) has had a couple tough games and is missing tackles.

NO way I would play the Bills ats if Poyer is not in. LW vs Minny was a bit more obvious dealing with Jefferson but Cooper is still huge and DVP is way better than whoever will be covering him. Rousseau's injury seems like it'll keep him out this week as well, so the Dline will stay a little thin and you have to hope they can get pressure. With the total weather drop I lean over but also won't play unless Poyer is OUT. If he's in they can run blitz much more.

Wouldn't surprise me to see the Browns put up 20+ if Chubb gets rolling, and the Bills haven't shown anything remotely close to run D the past 3 games.
 
gamblinjunkie said:
If your Bills don’t win the division I hope my jets do. Us jet fans have been suffering for years. Would be happy if any of them win division as long as it’s not the Pats!
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I'm hoping the Fins drop the 3 roadies in a row @SF, @Chargers, @Bills. Buffalo has the easier schedule but I just think unless Tre comes back like a #1 cb & Poyer gets healthy Buffalo won't be able to stop that offense. And without that win they lose the division.
 
skanless13 said:
How tf are the Vikes dogs at home… and the line seems to be rising?
Click to expand...
Let down after game of the year. Plus Kurt on the national CBS game, in the spotlight after the Bills win and getting “iced out” on those plane rides home? Not to mention will be under pressure against Parsons and top pass rush.
 
It is supposed to tail off early but who knows. Projected to get almost two feet starting tomorrow I'll keep you all posted
 
Lexington 125 said:
As far as this matchup vs the Browns everyone knows Chubb is getting the ball. It's up the this D to stop him & with all the injuries they could have a hard time. Cleveland may very well come out and just pound Chubb, but they have mismatches in the secondary as well. To me the weather is a non factor unless there are whiteouts & 60 mph winds. The injuries to me will be the biggest factor. Edmunds had a setback mid game dealing with groin/heel problems. Need his length to cover tes. Poyer up in the air & it seems as if Tre White is just not ready to play for whatever reason. Benford who originally beat out the #1 pick Elam (who is still banged up) has had a couple tough games and is missing tackles.

NO way I would play the Bills ats if Poyer is not in. LW vs Minny was a bit more obvious dealing with Jefferson but Cooper is still huge and DVP is way better than whoever will be covering him. Rousseau's injury seems like it'll keep him out this week as well, so the Dline will stay a little thin and you have to hope they can get pressure. With the total weather drop I lean over but also won't play unless Poyer is OUT. If he's in they can run blitz much more.

Wouldn't surprise me to see the Browns put up 20+ if Chubb gets rolling, and the Bills haven't shown anything remotely close to run D the past 3 games.
Click to expand...
BUFF needs to do what KC did when thier defense wasn't playing good. They got to score in the 30s at least. They have the weapons on Offense. Stop turning the ball over and score to help your Defense.
 
UTSUX said:
BUFF needs to do what KC did when thier defense wasn't playing good. They got to score in the 30s at least. They have the weapons on Offense. Stop turning the ball over and score to help your Defense.
Click to expand...

If only it was that easy.

The defense not playing well is 75% injuries, & 25% the offense not sustaining drives in the second half. Losing Hyde was such a blow as he & Poyer work so well in tandem. Poyer is a play maker but with him out they just don't have the talent in the secondary everyone would like to think they do.

The D line was insane the first couple games....but once they lost the ability to rotate fresh dl in, they started to wear down. Von Miller is aging, it's not realistic to think he'll go 100% every down. Rousseau is the rising star and he's likely out again.

If/when the D gets healthy, they will look great. It's just not going to happen right now.
 
I really don't see how you make a wager on the Bills game until

1. you see the inactives list.

2. you see the weather situation

There were rumblings on the radio of a possible relocation but I doubt that happens. I guess I have to see exactly when the Browns are supposed to arrive. Storm starting tonight everyone is buying out the stores.


Injuries to look at for Buffalo & what I think are possible impacts.

Defense

Rousseau- ankle hasn't practiced. Missed lw likely not to go again. Again he's a playmaker, but now Settle & Jordan Phillips are listed as ? That is scary. If Phillips is out this d line rotation doesn't rotate much.

Edmunds- re-injured his groin in game & hasn't practiced. As I said before last week if/when he was out the te would feast because they need his length in the middle. Hock killed them- only way this isn't an issue is if it turns into a no pass crazy weather game.

Milano- didn't practice because of an illness. Def something to look out for though I'm sure come Gameday he's going to be fine. please.

side note I see Edmunds/Milano as a really good tandem much like Hyde/Poyer was. Not great individually but together they mesh well. D takes a big hit when either are out.

Poyer- said he was expected to practice yesterday. To me he is a MUST PLAY if you are considering an under. Cam Lewis didn't practice due to a forearm injury, seems as if Elam is trending towards playing. Who knows wtf the deal is with Tre White but I get the feeling he won't play for a couple more games. Should Cam/Poyer miss, they would be hampered ESPECIALLY in a game where the Browns may just go big and pound the run.
 
B.A.R. said:
Minnesota dogs at home...

Giants short at home...

Raiders full fade now...

Bears/Falcons a running game dream...
Click to expand...

I agree w raiders being a full fade but can you really play the donks, as favs no less? I seriously heard donks awful coach say “somebody has to win” while discussing this game at his press conference. He did start by explaining how records don’t matter (I suppose a nice thought if your record sucks) and that every team in the league is good (it only feels that way when you are not!). I have no clue how this guy hasn’t been fired yet? I’ve finally came to the realization raiders are awful and faded them last week, will most def fade them some more rest this year, I would fade either these teams as favs which leads to a problem here since they playing each other. Maybe they will tie, that be very fitting here.
 
Lexington 125 said:
Bills game this week I think will be very telling about the rest of the season. I'll be honest I don't think they win the division and injuries are the biggest reason why. Not the whole reason but the biggest. Second half game planning & execution have been terrible. The defensive injuries have directly contributed to 2ndh meltdowns- they can't get off the field because they are wearing down. The secondary was getting by with Poyer as the safety net but without him the cbs consistently lose. Tons of missed tackles. Most annoying to me lessons could be learned they are largely ignored. Some of the same reasons we lost @Miami are the same reasons we lost sunday.

Allen is unreal and the Bills are NOTHING without him. But his weaknesses are on display and it has nothing to do with ability. He does not have the Manning/Brady/Rodgers/Mahomes mental aspect of the game mastered. At least not yet. It's like he needs the play to be spectacular or he doesn't want it.
Click to expand...

I don’t want to curve Allen’s desire to hunt big plays and tds but he gotta be smarter situationally. Points of any kind puts some these games away yet he forces throws there no reason to make given the situation. Obviously you know them well and make valid points but The other holes are probably not being brought up or examined if he just plays a little smarter cause that all it would have took to win these last few games. -8 sure feels like a lot this week, sounds like gonna be a bunch of snow!!! Hard not to like browns run game and the points.
 
I feel like if someone commits a serious crime they should be sentenced to one year of watching the Commanders/Texans game. So many bad games this week it's tough to trust any of those teams..
 
Possible 40 mph winds in Foxboro this Sunday. Already total is 38.... I have no opinion on the game but I am starting Christian Watson in fantasy tonight instead of Garrett Wilson for this reason.
 
Capaholic said:
Possible 40 mph winds in Foxboro this Sunday. Already total is 38.... I have no opinion on the game but I am starting Christian Watson in fantasy tonight instead of Garrett Wilson for this reason.
Click to expand...

Damn. I liked the Unser without any bad weather. Can’t see either these teams getting to 20 without defensive or special teams help. Probably a good move in fantasy, I like watson to go over his yardage total tonight.
 
I saw winds in the teens for Foxborough (Pats) just now on weather underground. I'm sure there could be gusts screwing up the kicking game but the two QBs alone are enough to screw up the passing game.
 
Zeke said:
I saw winds in the teens for Foxborough (Pats) just now on weather underground. I'm sure there could be gusts screwing up the kicking game but the two QBs alone are enough to screw up the passing game.
Click to expand...

If either these 2 my qb I’m throwing as little as possible anyways. Neither one is a legit nfl caliber starter. Not sure why pats don’t stick w Zappe? I know he too short and his arm suspect but he still better than mac n cheese.
 
15-7 SU off a bye for Billy.

Now, not confirmed but in the same article they state New England is 1-10-1 the last 12 HOME games after a bye.
 
ptcap12150 said:
What about Pats home vs. Jets? -3 and Pats have 2 weeks to prepare for the Jets.
Click to expand...

That a super interesting line when you consider they played not that long ago in NY and pats were the same -3! So since then the power ratings on these teams have moved that much? Pats whipped colts then had their bye, jets upset bills then bye. I get it the bills win was better but so much so they went from calling pats-5 or so on a neutral field to damn near a pickem? That nuts isn’t it?
 
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Crazy stat here. Kingsbury as a dog of more than 3 is something like 15-6 ats, easily the best among active coaches with more than 20 such games. I bang on Kliff a lot, I don’t think he even a average nfl coach, don’t think he should have a job but gotta give him props for this. Never woulda guessed he was this good as a dog.

Om top of that the last 4 times they have played the niners zona d has been really good vs shanny only allowing niners about 17 ppg. In fairness 1 of those was Lance 1st nfl start last year and 1 was cj bethard playing qb. There will still 2 games Jimmy g did play, last year w McCoy at qb vs Jimmy g cards won 31-17. Apparently this dc has a good idea how to defend the shanny offense.
 
team = Patriots and H and playoffs = 0 and p:week + 2 = week
SU:6-7-0 (-1.46, 46.2%)Teaser Records
ATS:3-10-0 (-5.69, 23.1%) avg line: -4.2+6: 7-6-0 (53.8%) -6: 2-11-0 (15.4%) +10: 8-5-0 (61.5%) -10: 0-12-1 (0.0%)
O/U:4-9-0 (-5.23, 30.8%) avg total: 42.7+6: 2-10-1 (16.7%) -6: 6-6-1 (50.0%) +10: 2-11-0 (15.4%) -10: 9-4-0 (69.2%)
RushesRush YdsPassesPass YdsCompTOsQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Team25.892.033.5206.419.71.93.64.52.76.718.0
Opp32.7131.835.4223.821.21.52.29.34.23.619.5
DateLinkDayWeekSeasonTeamOppSiteQ1Q2Q3Q4FinalLineTotalSUmATSmOUmDPSDPASUrATSrOUrot
Oct 20, 1991viewSunday81991PatriotsVikingshome7-07-100-39-1026-237.034.0310.015.012.52.5WWO0
Oct 30, 1994viewSunday91994PatriotsDolphinshome3-00-130-70-33-230.044.0-20-20.0-18.0-19.01.0LLU0
Nov 15, 1999viewMonday101999PatriotsJetshome0-03-210-014-317-24-6.036.5-7-13.04.5-4.28.8LLO0
Nov 05, 2000viewSunday102000PatriotsBillshome0-33-70-010-313-16-2.038.0-3-5.0-9.0-7.0-2.0LLU0
Sep 23, 2001viewSunday32001PatriotsJetshome3-00-30-70-03-102.039.5-7-5.0-26.5-15.8-10.8LLU0
Oct 27, 2002viewSunday82002PatriotsBroncoshome0-77-143-06-316-24-3.046.0-8-11.0-6.0-8.52.5LLU0
Nov 16, 2003viewSunday112003PatriotsCowboyshome3-06-00-03-012-0-4.035.0128.0-23.0-7.5-15.5WWU0
Oct 30, 2005viewSunday82005PatriotsBillshome0-00-37-714-621-16-9.044.05-4.0-7.0-5.5-1.5WLU0
Nov 08, 2009viewSunday92009PatriotsDolphinshome7-39-78-73-027-17-10.547.010-0.5-3.0-1.8-1.2WLU0
Oct 17, 2010viewSunday62010PatriotsRavenshome7-30-73-710-323-20-2.544.530.5-1.5-0.5-1.0WWU1
Nov 11, 2012viewSunday102012PatriotsBillshome10-014-177-76-737-31-12.553.56-6.514.54.010.5WLO0
Nov 13, 2016viewSunday102016PatriotsSeahawkshome7-67-137-33-924-31-7.549.0-7-14.56.0-4.210.2LLO0
Oct 18, 2020viewSunday62020PatriotsBroncoshome0-63-60-69-012-18-7.044.0-6-13.0-14.0-13.5-0.5LLU0
Nov 20, 2022viewSunday112022PatriotsJetshome-3.538.0

The 2001 game was the "Mo Lewis" game; the week prior to was cancelled due to 9/11, so it wasn't really their bye week.
 
Regarding Jets/Patriots- I think the Jets are the better team playing better football and finally get to flex on the Pats this week. I'm def on the Jets & ML.
 
Looking around the web & I'm seeing a ton of love for the Colts+7 vs the Eagles.

The Colts.

Props to Saturday & the team on the comeback win vs the Raiders, but it's the Raiders and they were off a 26-3 pounding @NE. That's a much better spot than this week's situation. You get Philly off a bad loss where they were ran all over (2 weeks in a row now) and the consensus is Taylor goes off. But what if Philly gets up and Ryan is forced into long passing situations? A good part of Wash offensive success was the ability to move the pocket with Heineke which we all know you can't do well with Ryan at this stage in his career. Washington's D also played out of their minds and dominated los, will the Colts D be able to do the same?

Another interesting thing I see is the Colts haven't played very many proficient passing teams. Props to getting that win vs KC week 3, but that was off a 24 pt loss. Mahomes was off and they had zero run game going. After that it's been a bunch of sub par passing teams the Colts have faced. Adams ripped them lw what is AJ gonna do?

I've faded Philly last 2 weeks and cashed on rb yds /td prop parlays both times. I think they blow the doors off the Colts this week. Zaire Franklin also questionable for Colts I think the Eagles will be balanced enough on offense to keep the Colts guessing. I don't think Indy does the same. Might play an adjusted line here as well but Eagles tt o26.5 might be covered in the third q
 
77 inches in Orchard Park is a record for snowfall in a stadium location

I'm damn near ready to pull for Buffalo to win it all now
 
Lexington 125 said:
@P-Unit I like the Vikings despite what ppl are perceiving as a bad spot. Thoughts?
Click to expand...
They lost to Connor Rush in a big spot similar to this last year. You can't downplay the Cousins turds in "prime time" games. Not sure I would completely consider this prime time but it's close.

The line screams Dallas in this one but I think the change in HC for my club is good. Zimmer would just sit on the ball and KOC has got them rolling.
 
2daBank said:
Crazy stat here. Kingsbury as a dog of more than 3 is something like 15-6 ats, easily the best among active coaches with more than 20 such games. I bang on Kliff a lot, I don’t think he even a average nfl coach, don’t think he should have a job but gotta give him props for this. Never woulda guessed he was this good as a dog.

Om top of that the last 4 times they have played the niners zona d has been really good vs shanny only allowing niners about 17 ppg. In fairness 1 of those was Lance 1st nfl start last year and 1 was cj bethard playing qb. There will still 2 games Jimmy g did play, last year w McCoy at qb vs Jimmy g cards won 31-17. Apparently this dc has a good idea how to defend the shanny offense.
Click to expand...

Chandler Jones was always a menace and Kyler running around like the little bitch he is has been a problem for the 9ers. If he’s limited and can’t run I’m not worried. Way more worried about Colt who absolutely carved up the 9ers last year.
 
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