Week 11 CFB w/ writeups to come..




redbearde

redbearde

Pretty much a regular
Week 10 spreads: 6 - 4, +3.83 units
total: 87-63-2, 57.2%, +56.77 units

nuthin yet...

ML Dogs
Week 10: 1-5, -3.89 units
Overall: 36-64, 36% +12.84 units

Wake Forest +224
Tennessee +191

The NC State number is stupid high, and it's looking like it'll go higher. at 520, I like it, and if it gets to 550, I'll be even happier.

I'm not jumping on anything else early this week....Let's just watch these numbers for a few days.

I think dogs will continue surprising this week...Illinois, Ball State, Mississippi St, Buffalo, Maryland, Northwestern (?!?!?!?), Arizona....these all hit me from left field. I mean, i had MSU on the ML, but i didn't at all expect em to win outright.

I'm nursing a migraine right now, so I'll write more later or tomorrow.

Let's win some money this week.
 
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oh hey, by the way Huntdog, how do you feel about those poisonous nuts found in Ohio and named after some cycloptic jackass named Buck....?

your sig is a bit unclear about your feelings.......I mean, really...you shouldn't mince words.
 
I already took the sunbelt teams. FIU likely to come when I see a line on it...these games are generally inscrutable, and they almost always overvalue the dogs. The one I don't like as much is going against MTSU. That's a good team, and I wouldn't be surprised to see MTSU beating midmajors or even major teams over the next few years. However, homefield in the sunbelt seems to be the biggest deciding factor for these teams. Even the perceived best red raiders, on the road against the Indians, may well fall this saturday. I like 157 there.

Garf's right. North Texas woke up last week after giving up 21 1st Q points. Then they let LT come back to win 34-31. I figure 3:1 is good value. 380 is great. Yum.

Clemson is getting hammered. I couldn't believe my eyes when NCSU went up to 620 yesterday (i knocked it back down some), and it's up to 670 today. For a 20% chance to win, and I do think it's that much, that's great...the Wolfpack has defensive ability. If the fucking D-Linemen on offense would stop jumping offsides and the goddamn RBs would stop fumbling the ball, then NC State can absolutely play with Clemson. Discipline is the key for the pack.

Western Michigan and Central Michigan is an interesting pair. Both have pretty decent defense, and CMU has been able to score pretty reliably. But with the MAC, goofyshit happens, and unless you're playing on Toledo, that usually in the ML dog player's favor. I have WMU at over 2:1.

Speaking of Toledo. FUCK TOLEDO.

I have a rule. Occasionally I break that rule, and I bet on Toledo. I always look like this afterward:


FUCK TOLEDO.

I don't like Vandy at Kentucky. Thy may well win, but the difference between the return and the risk is insufficient.

Tennessee will have to stop the Arkansas rungame. I don't believe arky goes undefeated in SEC play, and this is a team that can stop it. Great speed on defense, and they're tough as hell up front. I got 191, and almost 2:1 strikes me as nice. Maybe I'm a homer....but I'm more of an ACC guy.

New Mexico, I'm considering. But TCU has been playing tough.......not so sure that the Lobos just being at home is enough for me to put money there at 214.

Wake Forest, I do like. Perhaps Garf is right and they'll lose their last 3, but they've been consistently undervalued all year, and I must admit to fading them early on a couple times, but I'm playing them this week. Florida St SHOULD blast them off the field, and perhaps that'll happen, but these WF kids are just getting it done. ...and they're doing it against defenses. Here's a stat for you.

One team runs for 176 for 6.5 yards per carry.
Same team allows 66 yards for 2.6 ypc....

Who is it? Wake Forest.

The gave up over 400 yards of passing offense, but they only gave up 14 points. Wake uses that bend but don't break style. They trade yards for chances to stop you, and it's been working like a charm this year. They stopped BC's last drive with a pick in the endzone...I think Wake can do the same thing to FSU. MAKE THEM THROW IT, and Wake has a decent shot at the win here.
 
Matador just played Cincinnati. Ballsy guy, that Matador, and I guess I'd should consider it just based on his perception of value, but I just don't see a scenario where WVU loses this game. If white and slaton both lose a leg, well then that's different (donbest has neither listed as injured). But the mounties tend to play very tough at home, they'll run the score up, and I honestly see a high probability of a cover and an almost certain straight up win.

Where was I...how about SMU?

Willis's QB play gets my dick hard. He's a great playmaker, a pretty good passer, and he's very mobile. Houston is unreliable to say the least, and it wouldn't surprise me at all to see an SMU win at home here. Someone agrees, and they're knocking this line down. One never knows with these....sometimes Cris releases better numbers than pinny. Maybe it'll be over 200 again, and I can jump on it.

Michigan St. Just.....no. The spartans are full-meltdown mode again. A historic comeback notwithstanding, this team quit. Fuck them.

UNLV, crap v crap at 260. We lost Temple at Buffalo at 2:1 in week 1, but methinks this one is winnable. Both UNLV and SDSU are defining REALLY FUCKING BAD this year. Down to 248 at pinny now. Damnit. Cris is still at +7.5, tho, so perhaps I can still get it there.

if Central Fl is a dog, I'll be all over that game. Cris has them at +1.5

Yay.
 
That bc game made me sick. It was obvious BC was the better team. They dominated the second half..but kept on fucking up once they were about to score. Wake had a couple quick bombs for td's besides that they didnt do much. Oh well
 
I've added

Central Florida +105
UNLV +263

likely won't play anymore on general Don't Play Too Many principle.

Typically, winning 4 works out very well.

GL this week, folks.
 
I'll be taking UCF on the Moneyline as well. I faded Memphis last week against Southern Miss, and I believe this team has quit. Plus, UCF should be laying a fg at least, so this line has value.
 
Thanks pags, I sure need it after how the ML dogs have been going in recent weeks.

RambleOn, I typically suck complete ass (in a bad way) at predicting line moves, but I think the earlier you get this line the better off you'll be. It's at even money at pinny right now, and I doubt it gets any better. GL
 
Week 10 spreads: 6 - 4, +3.83 units
total: 87-63-2, 57.2%, +56.77 units

Finally played a few at 2 units each...

Navy -15 (+109)
Indiana +17.5 (+113)
Washington -20.5 (+103)
Pitt -9.5 (+105)

I'm seriously considering fading Dr Bob after all the moves...
 
redbearde said:
Week 10 spreads: 6 - 4, +3.83 units
total: 87-63-2, 57.2%, +56.77 units

Finally played a few at 2 units each...

Navy -15 (+109)
Indiana +17.5 (+113)
Washington -20.5 (+103)
Pitt -9.5 (+105)

I'm seriously considering fading Dr Bob after all the moves...
Click to expand...

You got someo great profit going there bearde!!!! keep it up buddy!
 
redbearde said:
LOL........you seen him play?
Click to expand...

He is a good one, I will admit. However, he brings no excitement to me nether regions :cool:

GL this weekend dude :cheers:
 
Louisville -6.5 (-110) 2 units

Waited and had to eat the juice.

I think this game will go pretty much like the WVU game did. Rutgers faces its first real big time offense this year. Rutgers exposed the hell out of pitt, much to my surprise, and perhaps they do it here, but I don't think they will.

Enough's been written about this game. I might add another unit if Dr Fuckhead picks Rutgers tomorrow and knocks the line back down a few points.
 
redbearde...pinnacle has better lines on those last 3 games...dont know if you bought points against the dog or not
 
Week 10 spreads: 6 - 4, +3.83 units
total: 87-63-2, 57.2%, +56.77 units

Navy -15 (+109) 2 units
Indiana +17.5 (+113) 2 units
Washington -20.5 (+103) 2 units
Pitt -9.5 (+105) 2 units
Louisville -6.5 (-110) 2 units - L
Georgia +10 (+113)
Alabama +17 (+102)
South Carolina +12 (+100)

ML Dogs
Week 10: 1-5, -3.89 units
Overall: 36-64, 36% +12.84 units

Wake Forest +224
Tennessee +191
NC State +620
Western Michigan +204
Florida Atlantic +157
North Texas +380
Arkansas St +172
Marshall +270
Central Florida +105
UNLV +263
FLINT +105
New Mexico +228

I like my card this week. I didn't let anyone talk me into or out of anything, and I haven't gotten the absolute worst of the ML numbers this week.

I could really stand to have a good week in the ML dogs...it'd be about fucking time.

'an_horse'
 
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GL this week redbearde. Looks like a good card. I'm thinking of rolling with you on Western Michigan tonight.

:cheers:
 
don't care for the UNLV pick, but hope you got the line you wanted, should be going up, up, up
 
Cha0s0rB said:
don't care for the UNLV pick, but hope you got the line you wanted, should be going up, up, up
Click to expand...

I don't care for it either, but I like fading San Diego St.

Rexy said:
GL bearde, several I agree with your assessment of...
Click to expand...

I like to hear that. GL today CKR. Let's win some money.

Yanks26Sox6 said:
BOL, Red. Got quite a few in common.
Click to expand...

Cool. Let's do this. GL to us.

'an_horse'
 
GL today red. Good to see we have a couple spread plays in common.

Couldn't find very many ML dogs I really liked..............got the hit on Toledo. Like NM & may still play SJS, but just don't have a gut feel for many this week. Hope you hit some.
 
God, i thought the NCSU WR had that ball and was forced out. alas. SO CLOSE to 6.2:1...so fucking close...
 
Okay, I watched NC State's line open at 14, and I thought that was too much. Then I saw it rocket up to 17 and my eyes bugged out. When the ML went over 600, I couldn't help it.....I went ahead and hit it at 620. Then I saw it go up to 740.

In any event, what had to happen for a wolfpack upset did. They kad to have no penalties. Well, they had 2 or 3, I think, and they had to not turn the ball over. Evans threw a pick, but Proctor threw one as well, AND the wolfpack D forced a fumble. Conservative (or bad depending..) playcalling gave up a few opportunities late, but with 30 seconds left and down 6 pts, Evan pitched the ball into the EZ for a WR who was upended by the tackle. His ass fell in, but his foot hit out first.

Here's the question..........what is the forceout rule? He was flipped around and caused to put his foot out, but he wasn't really thrown out, if you know what I mean... So did I got totally fucked out of a 6.2:1?

At any rate, I feel good about seeing the game correctly even if I lost it. So far, yet again, I've had a tough day. I do have a bunch of games that just started, though, so it could still wind up in the positive.

What the hell caused the NCSU line to get up to +18 by gametime?
 
redbearde said:
Hawaii -37 (-102)
Click to expand...

like the hawaii game...have you thought about 1st Q and half...Hawaii has been starting off quick...I listen to them over the computer...true degenerate...:cheers:

Mully
 
I haven't given that thought. Hawaii is going to crush these guys....Perhaps I should...my spread plays are ass right now.

I'll look at half, but quarter strikes me as too speculative. Course, that just means the quarter will cash and the half won't.

;)
 
redbearde said:
Hawaii 1H -21 (-122)

hate that juice...alas. It should sail over that.
Click to expand...

Bro, hit em 1st Q (-9.5) too...from all reports La tech has been partying in Hawaii (can we blame them?) and they are a bad team...this is the best QB named Colt in the country & Hawaii actually has a helluva run offense too...I truly believe Hawaii could score 100 tonight if they wanted...:cheers:

Mully :drink: :cheers: :drink:
 
9.5 smells reeeeeeeeeeeeally good.......

my juice actually improved when piny told me the line had changed. that doesn't happen often...
 
thanks. Not sure I'll stay up for that. I'm still on drugs today. I'm dizzy, been nauseated, and up until North Texas won, it's been a crumby day wagering...

Though I'm not planning on going to church in the morn...perhaps i will.
 
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