Week 10 Writeups and hopefully feedback

Br@ssknux

Br@ssknux

Pretty much a regular
Starting early this week because I want to get this one out there.

Had a terrible week last week, didn;t really like anything all that much and it showed. Let's get started and move on.



1. @Louisville +7 v Florida State: First of all, Florida State will absolutely not be able to run a lick in this game. They are ranked 94th in rushing yards per carry, and they're even worse when facing teams with a defensive pulse. (26 carries for 50 yards against ND, 27 carries for 13 yards against Clemson, only 3.4 yards per carry against Oklahoma St.). Louisville is #1 in the country in rushing defense, and #1 in the country overall in yards per play. It's going to be all up to Jameis in this one, and he has a penchant for tossing balls up for grabs and taking big sacks when it's all on his shoulders. Louisville is 9th in the country in sacks, 2nd in passer rating against and has picked off 14 passes against only 4 TDs allowed. Offensively, Louisville is ranked low in most categories, but they are improving rapidly as you would expect under Petrino, and it looks like he's settled on Gardner. They finally have DaVante Parker, their big play receiver and best player back healthy, and Michael Dyer has finally decided it's time to get his head out of his ass and start playing. He's got a great pedigree in big games, so I expect he'll be a difference maker in this game. Petrino has had a week off to prepare and Florida State has been living dangerously all year. The Noles are 1-6 ATS this year, and I don't see it changing this week. I love Louisville outright in this one. I'd be on them heavy of the line was a pick.
 
Br@ssknux said:
Starting early this week because I want to get this one out there.

Had a terrible week last week, didn;t really like anything all that much and it showed. Let's get started and move on.


1. @Louisville +7 v Florida State: First of all, Florida State will absolutely not be able to run a lick in this game. They are ranked 94th in rushing yards per carry, and they're even worse when facing teams with a defensive pulse. (26 carries for 50 yards against ND, 27 carries for 13 yards against Clemson, only 3.4 yards per carry against Oklahoma St.). Louisville is #1 in the country in rushing defense, and #1 in the country overall in yards per play. It's going to be all up to Jameis in this one, and he has a penchant for tossing balls up for grabs and taking big sacks when it's all on his shoulders. Louisville is 9th in the country in sacks, 2nd in passer rating against and has picked off 14 passes against only 4 TDs allowed. Offensively, Louisville is ranked low in most categories, but they are improving rapidly as you would expect under Petrino, and it looks like he's settled on Gardner. They finally have DaVante Parker, their big play receiver and best player back healthy, and Michael Dyer has finally decided it's time to get his head out of his ass and start playing. He's got a great pedigree in big games, so I expect he'll be a difference maker in this game. Petrino has had a week off to prepare and Florida State has been living dangerously all year. The Noles are 1-6 ATS this year, and I don't see it changing this week. I love Louisville outright in this one. I'd be on them heavy of the line was a pick.
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Really good analysis.. and agree with a lot of what is said, but this is a game where I throw stats out the window and simply take the better team.

Both offenses will struggle to put up points and Wintson will be knocked around in the first half (I like ville 1h a lot). But when the dust settles, Winston will make the plays when he has to and i think they end up pulling away late.

I got FSU giving 3 and bought it down to 2.5. To me, this is a must bet, even if you think there's a good chance they get upset. Hedge at the half if you have to, but I think anytime you can get the defending NC, with college football playoff's on the line, giving only 3 pts to an almost unranked team, you take it.
 
Forty oz b said:
Really good analysis.. and agree with a lot of what is said, but this is a game where I throw stats out the window and simply take the better team.

Both offenses will struggle to put up points and Wintson will be knocked around in the first half (I like ville 1h a lot). But when the dust settles, Winston will make the plays when he has to and i think they end up pulling away late.

I got FSU giving 3 and bought it down to 2.5. To me, this is a must bet, even if you think there's a good chance they get upset. Hedge at the half if you have to, but I think anytime you can get the defending NC, with college football playoff's on the line, giving only 3 pts to an almost unranked team, you take it.
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First of all thanks for the kind words. I really can't argue with what you're saying. If you found the opportunity to buy it under a FG, it's a situation that you'd think would be a must bet, and it might be. If the line opened at 3.5, it would have been a tough call for me, but I'd probably end up taking the dog because I think Louisville wins. I'm really glad that I got it at 7 though....I'll definitely admit that.
 
Br@ssknux said:
First of all thanks for the kind words. I really can't argue with what you're saying. If you found the opportunity to buy it under a FG, it's a situation that you'd think would be a must bet, and it might be. If the line opened at 3.5, it would have been a tough call for me, but I'd probably end up taking the dog because I think Louisville wins. I'm really glad that I got it at 7 though....I'll definitely admit that.
Click to expand...

I was honestly planning on jumping on ville, as I expected them to get around 10 pts in this one..

I'm a clemson guy so I saw Louisville's defense first hand.. And they are dam good. But I also saw their offense, and FSU has the talent to wreak havoc in the backfield.

FSU has had their back against the wall all year and have been lucky to escape a couple close ones.. But I think they know now that this is their last true test of the year and there's no more "looking ahead".

Either way GL.
 
That game was the 4th or 5th time in the last few years where I was beaten on a "The only way I can lose my bet is if they score on THIS play" front door cover. Strangely though...you could see this one coming. Oh well....Louisville's D really shit the bed when the chips were down, and Petrino had to know that his only chance to win was when he had the ball with 5 minutes left up 3. Anything other than a scoring drive there is a loss.
 
0-1 to start. We move on.........

Always enjoy any comments anyone has...yay or nay.


2. Air Force -2.5 @ Army: Even if you couldn't make a great case for Air Force in this one off of matchups/stats, all you'd have to point at to justify an Air Force playat this line is Army's dismal performance against the service academies. They're 1-15 straight up since 2006, so in order to cover this, they'll probably have to win. Air Forice has also played a much tougher schedule than Army thus far, but still looks better on paper. Air Force has thrown the ball a lot more this year than they have traditionally, and they've done a surprisingly good job at it too, ranking 12th in the country in passer rating. Defensively, Army is as bad as ever, especially against the pass(117th). Air Force has also been pretty good defensively, considering how helpless they were on that side of the ball last year. I expect the usual in this case: Army loses to a service academy squad.We just need it to be by a FG or better.


3. Wisconsin -11 @ Rutgers: Betonline.com is the only offshore that I can find with a line on this game, but it's my book, so good for me. Rutgers is ranked 100th in rushing defense, and was completely helpless last week against Ameer Abdullah in Lincoln, so I wouldn't expect anything different here. Also remember that Rutgers was outgained by more than 100 yards by a sorry Penn State offense, and it's likely that Gary Nova won't be able to go for Rutgers. Wisconsin has been a bit of a kryptonite situation for me this year, as I've been wrong on them often, but I can't see any facet of this game in which Rutgers will have an advantage. The Badgers have also been stout on defense lately, and appear to be rounding into form, as they often do at this time of year.
 
4. Northwestern +4 @ Iowa: This is likely to be a one possession game either way with both defenses having the upper hand. Points will be at a premium in this one, and Northwestern has looked very good on the road in conference this year, outgaining Penn State and Minnesota by an average of about 100 yards per game. Iowa always plays a conservative game which leaves them open for all kinds of bad things to happen to them when they inevitably play not to lose. This looks like a virtual standstill statistically, and I think Northwestern is completely in their comfort zone in this spot, on the road as a dog, and they always seem to play Iowa tough. Since Northwestern made the move to Justin Jackson at RB, they have looked much better offensively. I'll take the points here.


5. Boston College +3.5 @Virginia Tech: Another defensive game where both defenses figure to dominate. I just happen to have more faith in the BC offense, and as Beamer slowly fades into senility, I think Addazio is the better coach. Virginia Tech has been putrid offensively... they have no chance to run it effectively, and Michael Brewer has been a walking turnover for most of the year. There's danger that the home environment can get toxic if the Hokies get off to a slow start again, effectively canceling out the home field advantage, and I think BC will have a shot to run on them like Pitt did a few weeks ago. On paper, BC looks to be the better team, so I'll take the points here. BC has looked good on the road as well.
 
6. Georgia -10.5 v Florida: I'm still waiting for another vertical passing attack to slap Florida's terrible coverage units around, but we'll have to wait another couple weeks for that. However, that doesn't mean that Georgia won't score, because they've been doing that on everyone, despite Hutson Mason's inability to throw the ball downfield. The bigger question in this game is "How is Florida going to score?". We've mentioned this before, but when a team has no talented offensive players, and the untalented players they are forced to use turn the ball over at a comical rate I'd surmise the answer to that will be"they won't". Georgia's defense has been stout both against the run and the pass, and Florida can't run and they can't throw.. I really don't see a scenario where Florida scores with any success, and I think Georgia will keep denting the scoreboard like they have all year. If Florida plays a GOOD game, the score would probably be about 28-17, and with this season pretty much washed up, I don't expect the Gators to muster up that kind of best case scenario.


7. TCU -4 @ West Virginia: It's really tempting to go with the Smoldering Couches here due to their recent successes, but there's just too much evidence pointing to the Frogs to pass them up. First and foremost, the Frogs are perfect this year against the spread, even after a couple of trap games at home in which they could have been caught looking ahead. Both teams should have success throwing the ball, but in my opinion, the major advantage for TCU should be in the running game on both sides of the ball, as they have a major advantage in their rushing attack(13th) against WV's rushing defense (94th) as well as their ability to stop the run. They'll also enjoy a significant special teams advantage, as Catalon is explosive in the return game. With Gameday on hand, I don't think we'll see any look ahead to K State next week. I think Patterson and company take care of business similar to how Oklahoma did in Morgantown earlier this fall.
 
8. Western Michigan -7 @Miami(OH): Western Michigan is establishing themselves as perhaps the best team in the MAC right now, having beaten Bowling Green handily on the road and toying with Ohio last week. They have great balance on offense under PJ Fleck, ranked 6th in the country in passer rating and running effectively with impressive looking freshman Jarvion Franklin. Miami has improved, but still struggles mightily to stop people on defense. Also, WMU's own defense has been improving rapidly, having held BG's offense to 14 a couple of weeks ago. I think this team's confidence is extremely high now and they are on a 7 game covering streak. I'll stay with the hot team...I think they'll have little trouble busting 40 points on this Miami defense.


9. Purdue +24 @Nebraska: Other than their early loss at home to Central Michigan, when they were still "Purdue" the Boilermakers haven't really been blown out in any game they've played this year, and have shown the ability to do somethings on offense, primarily in the running game. They handle Illinois on the road and probably should have beaten Minnesota. After seeing Minnesota lose at Illinois, I think you can make the case that this Purdue team is on par with the Gophers, and I don't think there's any chance that Minnesota would be a 24 point dog in this spot. I also think Nebraska is in a bit of a dead spot in their schedule, coming off a boring win at home against Rutgers and now lining up against an assumed W in Purdue heading into their bye week. Their remaining opponents all pummeled them in their last meetings, so it's very possible that they'll be looking ahead to that slate and taking this one for granted. Earlier in the year, I wouldn't have blamed them, but Purdue has shown some drastic improvement and is gaining confidence in year 2 under Hazell. Nebraska would need to play at their best to cover this number in my opinion, and I just can't see that happening. They're due for a clunker.
 
10. @Michigan -6.5 v Indiana: I don't know how long this will be sitting at under a TD, but it's there now, and a LOT of the public is fading Michigan here. I of course do not under any circumstances have a problem with that overall position, but in this case, I need a hell of a lot more than 6.5 points to back an Indiana team who can't stop a collection of drunk toddlers on defense, and has a quarterback that they coaching staff doesn't trust to throw an actual forward pass. Last week, QB Zander Diamont gave us this line: 5/15 for 11 yards passing, and 12 carries for (-11) yards. That's a total offense output of (-1) yards from a quarterback. I don't know that I've ever seen that. Meanwhile, their defense gave up 662 yards to Michigan State. Michigan is awful, but Ol' Devin Gardner and Mr. Funchess can still play a little bit against terrible defenses, and we shouldn't forget that Michigan, despite all of their troubles, is still 8th in the country at stopping the run. I understand that Tevin Coleman is really good, and he'll probably break a couple big runs even with all 11 guys keying on him, but at some point, you have to be able to do something else on offense, and Indiana hasn't been able to do that, even before the QB injuries. Brady Hoke gets a small modicum of satisfaction here. If he loses this one, they ought to frisk him for the keys to his office and hand him his walking papers right there in the postgame handshake line.


11. Georgia State +13.5 @Appalachian State: The lines in these Georgia State games have completely confounded me this year, especially lately and with good reason. In the last 4 GSU games, the final hasn't even been close to the spread. In the last 4 weeks, the Panthers have failed to cover by 18(at home), covered by 16.5(road), failed to cover by 31 (home) and covered by 13 (road). Now they are back on the road, traveling to Appy State as a sizable dog. In their last 2 road games, Georgia State has lost by a late FG to both La La and South Alabama, both of whom are significantly better on paper (and by virtue of USA's 47-21 win over Appy State, on the field) than Appy State. Again, I can't see how these 2 teams would generate a line more than a few points either way.. Both teams have terrible defenses and decent offenses, although GSU can throw the ball with much more proficiency than the Mountaineers can. Both teams have major advantages when they are on offense...almost equal in my opinion. Since I'm getting 13.5 points with one of them, and the one getting the points has been really good in this role, it adds up to a play on GSU for me.
 
12. Kentucky +8 @Missouri: Here are a few random facts about Missouri. In their 3 previous home games, they've beaten prodigal son SEC whipping boy Vandy by 10, got curb stomped by Georgia and somehow lost to Indiana. Their game results have been better on the road, but not the offensive performances. In conference games, Missouri is averaging 4.03 yards per play, 3rd worst in the country, and that's including games against South Carolina and the aforementioned Vanderbilt, who are the 12th and 14th(by a mile) ranked defenses in the SEC. Kentucly's defense is not a world beater, but they're better than those 2 and actually ranked 33rd in the country in YPP. and 7th in passer rating against. At best, I would rate these 2 teams as even, and with Missouri's home performance being what it is, it seems to me that Kentucky at more than a TD is great value. Kentucky is also at 5 wins, looking to get bowl eligible. Their remaining schedule is Georgia, at Tennessee and at Louisville, so this might be their best chance.


13. Auburn +2 @Ole Miss: I believe this is the first time I've gone against one of the Mississippi schools in one of these big games. In my opinion, previously the matchups have been solidly in their favor, but I have a feeling Auburn is going to take care of business on the road in this one. My primary concern with Ole Miss has been their offense. If you take away 2 back to back possessions against Alabamaa month ago, Ole Miss hasn't really been impressive at all on the offensive side of the ball. They blitzkreiged A&M with takeaways and defensive scores so that game was never really in doubt, but they only managed 344 yards in that one against the #13 defense in the SEC. They were completely shut down by LSU last week, and other than a distracted effort last week against South Carolina, Auburn has been a very solid defense, ranking 13th in the country in schedule adjusted defensive efficiency. Obviously, the major strength of Ole Miss is defense, but sometimes it doesn't matter who your defensive personnel is against the Malzahn outfit. I think Ole Miss had their train derailed last week, and a number of their defensive players are hobbled, including one of their defensive leaders Denzel Nkemdiche who broke his leg and is out for the year. Auburn is due for a strong road performance, I think it happens this week.
 
14. @Mississippi St -10.5 v Arkansas: Everyone wants to wishcast this Arkansas squad as an upset candidate just about every week, but although I have the proper respect for Bielema and his ability to put together a strong running game, they'll need to be able to get a defensive stop once an hour in order to stay in this game. I don't see that happening. On paper, this is a mismatch between the MSU offense and the Arkansas defense, as Mississippi St is extremely balanced on offense, while Arkansas doesn't care which method you prefer, they have trouble stopping it. They're 103rd against the pass (MSU is 13th in passer rating) and 84th in yard per play against (MSU is 12th in ypp on offense). Also, MSU's strength on defense is stopping the run, so they match up well with the Hogs there. Lots of value in this number in my opinion getting the #1 team in the country in their first home game in that role against a team on a 16 game conference losing streak.


15. @Kansas St -11 v Oklahoma St: Seems like a pretty reasonable number for Bill Snyder to cover, given Oklahoma State's troubles against any teams with a pulse this year doesn't it? I should remind you that Coach Snyder is now 34-12 ATS in conference since coming back to Manhattan. Look ahead spot for the Wildcats with TCU on deck, but are we really worried about that? Nah.
 
16. @Nevada -3 v San Diego State: On paper, without adjusting for schedule, this looks like a pretty ripe upset situation for San Diego State, as you can make a case that the Aztecs might have the edge in a lot of the matchups. Also, it looks like SDSU will be getting their QB Quinn Kaehler back as well as their best receiver. On closer examination, however, SDSU has played one of the weakest schedules in the country, while Nevada has piled up some impressive performances against some good teams. SDSU has beaten New Mexico, Hawaii and UNLV, while falling to early season North Carolina(who came out of the gate completely lost), at Fresno State and in a blowout loss to what appears to be a pretty mediocre at best Oregon State team. Nevada has beaten BYU, Hawaii and San Jose St, all on the road, beat Washington State and hung very tough with Arizona, Boise and Colorado State. After adjusting for schedule strength, Nevada has the edge on both sides of the ball in my opinion, and even if Kaehler plays, SDSU is ranked 123rd overall in the passing game, even after having played the likes of Fresno (126th against the pass)New Mexico(78th), and UNLV (101st). It'll be asking a lot for the Aztecs to go on the road and win this one.


17. Arizona +7(buy it) @ UCLA: So far at home, UCLA has been non-competitive against Oregon, lost to Utah and snuck by Memphis 42-35. So far on the road, Arizona has beaten Oregon and blew the doors off of Washington State. I've said all year that I think UCLA is overrated, and the only game they've covered in the last 6 is the game at Arizona State on that Thursday night when every break in the world went their way. Their defense can't really stop anyone consistently, and Arizona is certainly a worthy adversary in that department. The Wildcats are potent under RichRod and have designs on winning the PAC 10, with their only loss coming at the gun against USC. I would have made this line closer to a pick, so I'll gladly take the TD.
 
Others: My guess is that Illinois will be down 21-0 before the end of the 1st quarter if Ohio State is engaged. The spread is high (-28.5) and I've sworn off those big lines, but I think Ohio State probably covers that...

If you're getting points with Duke(+3.5) these days, especially more than a FG, it makes a lot of sense to jump on it, especially against a schitzophrenic team like Pitt. It looks like a virtual dead heat to me, but I'm a bit scared off by the fact that Duke has been getting severely outgained almost every week. That catches up to you eventually. They're a covering machine though, and they'll probably do it again against all reason this week....

For some reason I have a feeling that Iowa State (+16) is going to put up a bunch of points on Oklahoma this week. It wouldn't surprise me if they gave up 50+ though, so I can't recommend the Clones fully....

The spread is a little too big for my liking, but Miami is laying 14 to North Carolina, and on paper it looks like a mismatch. Of course, most of UNC's recent games have looked like mismatches and they've won 3 in a row. Seriously though, Miami looks to me to be one of the most balanced teams on both sides of the ball in the country. Just too much to lay for my taste...

I was also close to dropping a few bucks on New Mexico(+2) at UNLV, since UNM has been pretty good on the road and I doubt UNLV can stop their offense, but UNLV has looked a bit better in recent weeks and haven't been terrible at home...

I should probably be on Utah +6.5 at Arizona State, but they are really struggling to score, and their best wide receiver, Flipper Anderson's kid is now out for the year. If their defense doesn't sack the shit out of Taylor Kelly, they could be in some trouble. They've been resilient though.....That's all for now. May you all be the recipients of turnovers and defensive touchdowns.



 
Monster card there Brass....thx for posing......got me a lot of cash on Georgia....need that one....liking MSU and Georgia State as well....feel exactly teh same way about Georgia State....just odditiy all year, but been working for me.






Canes1 said:
Like GA as well. Any concern about line movement there?
Click to expand...

This seems to be closely tied to the Gurley announcement.......I also think it rises back to close to release before kick....even if it doesn't, Brass is on the money -- how does FL score?
 
Br@ssknux said:

11. Georgia State +13.5 @Appalachian State: The lines in these Georgia State games have completely confounded me this year, especially lately and with good reason. In the last 4 GSU games, the final hasn't even been close to the spread. In the last 4 weeks, the Panthers have failed to cover by 18(at home), covered by 16.5(road), failed to cover by 31 (home) and covered by 13 (road). Now they are back on the road, traveling to Appy State as a sizable dog. In their last 2 road games, Georgia State has lost by a late FG to both La La and South Alabama, both of whom are significantly better on paper (and by virtue of USA's 47-21 win over Appy State, on the field) than Appy State. Again, I can't see how these 2 teams would generate a line more than a few points either way.. Both teams have terrible defenses and decent offenses, although GSU can throw the ball with much more proficiency than the Mountaineers can. Both teams have major advantages when they are on offense...almost equal in my opinion. Since I'm getting 13.5 points with one of them, and the one getting the points has been really good in this role, it adds up to a play on GSU for me.
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The line has climbed partly because of the weather, I believe. Temps in the 30's, 2-5 inches of snow and, 20+ mph winds are expected to hurt the passing game that GSU relies on, while ASU's run game will feel less of an adverse effect.
 
excellent write-ups make great reads. thanks for your efforts. I hope you win big.
 
jimmymo said:
Monster card there Brass....thx for posing......got me a lot of cash on Georgia....need that one....liking MSU and Georgia State as well....feel exactly teh same way about Georgia State....just odditiy all year, but been working for me.








This seems to be closely tied to the Gurley announcement.......I also think it rises back to close to release before kick....even if it doesn't, Brass is on the money -- how does FL score?
Click to expand...


Thanks Jimmy...yeah, big card, but I had a hard time cutting this week. I didn;t last week as I cut 3, and naturally they all won. Hence, a 17 play card this week. I don't play any totals so I can live with it I guess.
 
twinkie13 said:
if you got some extra $$

Kentucky ML too:shake:
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Maybe I'll work up some gumption for that, but Mizzou's D is legit. Not sure the Cats can muster up enough offense for the outright. IMO though, if you take less than 10 you should have a reasonable expectation of an outright win, so I'll be thinking hard about it.
 
Nice work as always Brass, really enjoy reading your stuff. With you on AF, Ga and WMich. and considering Boston College and Wisconsin. BOL on the weekend.
 
Good Luck Smo1a.....

Thanks Timmy. You got a better number than me on WMU though. BOL to you and thanks for the feedback as always.
 
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