Week 10 ML Dogs

So this Utah line....at what point does UCLA even without Rosen get any consideration? +9 now goes up everytime I look.
 
booksbestfriend said:
Posted an alt line from earlier (thanks CK) at -14.5 +220.
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That's not my cup of tea on a fav. Assuming I have no play will certain watch and cheer that on for you.

Aside from a few quarters of good play this year, not sure Rosen being out hurts upon first examination. The downside is the backup has attempted 15 career passes and now must play in SLC tough venue.

Almost seems that Rosen's availability was already baked into the line where it was all week. UCLA -6.5 last year at home vs Utes. 2015 UCLA at Utah pick'em. This year -4.5/7 most of the week until today. Now we are just getting more reaction to wider speculation he is out and the line climbs higher.
 
s--k said:
That's not my cup of tea on a fav. Assuming I have no play will certain watch and cheer that on for you.

Aside from a few quarters of good play this year, not sure Rosen being out hurts upon first examination. The downside is the backup has attempted 15 career passes and now must play in SLC tough venue.

Almost seems that Rosen's availability was already baked into the line where it was all week. UCLA -6.5 last year at home vs Utes. 2015 UCLA at Utah pick'em. This year -4.5/7 most of the week until today. Now we are just getting more reaction to wider speculation he is out and the line climbs higher.
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Just had to poo-poo on my parade. Fine!
 
Trying to figure out a play in that UCLA-Utah game on the fly. I don't see how I can come up with anything I like.

Marshall 2nd half doing well. 13 pts and FAU hasn't touched the ball yet! That was probably the worst looking xpt I've ever seen! Marshall should be up by 1 right now.
 
C-MAN said:
And of course now Utah’s putting together their best drive of the game
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+320 is certainly a good bang for buck seeing how Utah isn't crisp and Huntley's best throws are when he is out of control and nearly sacked.
 
Narrowing my prospect list down to these:

Indiana - was +290, now +384
Virginia - was +321, now +274
Rice - was +367, now +297
Army - was +250, now +203
South Carolina - was +1500, now +1400
SMU - was +425, now +477
Texas - was +220, now +211

New candidates
North Texas +170
Southern Miss +203

Not plays, still deciding. Will likely cut that list in half for actual ML plays.
 
Fading USF...was all over Houston last week. This week...with UConn...? I pulled my hair out on a UConn ML in USF last year, barely got the ats w. Would appear to be a bad matchup for Huskies. I'm all for taking chances on bad teams and in general am ok with fading USF, this one may not be for me though. Home finale and senior day for UConn if you are into that kind of stuff.
 
I haven't ML'd against Wisconsin for a while because I got tired of Bucky making my ass sore.

The thing is I keep getting tempted to say "no really, this is the week Wisconsin is going to lose"

So just looking at some things, Wisconsin loves to score 17 pts in the first half, edit I had the Maryland score wrong first time around, so one less game. Nevermind.

vs Northwestern...Halftime 10-7 NW, end of 3rd 21-10 UW, Final 33-24
at Nebraska....Halftime 17-10 UW, end of 3rd 24-17 UW, Final 38-17
vs Purdue ....Halftime 17-6 UW, end of 3rd 17-9 UW, Final 17-9
vs Maryland....Halftime 21-3 UW, end of 3rd 28-13 UW, Final 38-13
at Illinois....Halftime 17-3 UW, end of 3rd 17-3, Final 24-10
 
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I can't ML Indiana. Maybe they win and maybe I play them ats, but it is a tall ask. A team with a poor O and a sometimes good D against a team as steady and solid as Wisconsin, hard to find how they do it. IU has no running game. An OL that is getting overwhelmed, a banged up starting QB (Ramsey), a turnover prone backup QB (Lagow) and one good WR. I guess if the same Wisconsin team that was in Champaign shows up in Bloomington there is a chance.

Virginia, maybe. They are a little lost right now, but I do believe their improved play we saw earlier is real. Mendenhall's team was in a close game last year at GT as a 10 pt road dog (trailed by 7 before 4th qrt pick-six) in his first season here and coming from BYU actually played GT 2014 & 2013 (won both) plus faced Air Force several years prior. So his background as a DC and knowledge vs option assures me they should be prepared, and last year shows me they can also execute the plan. Only two Ds held GT to fewer yards rushing than UVA last year, BC and Clemson...the top 6 tacklers from last year's GT game return. They have some quality players throughout, DL Andrew Brown, LB Micah Kaiser, DB Juan Thornhill (missed last week-could return), DB Quin Blanding. Even with limited output the last couple weeks, the potential for more still exists on O with Benkert some quality WRs and an on-off running game. The OL got reshuffled midgame due to injury last week and that group didn't perform well, maybe with a week of practice with it's new lineup it can get better. GT D is good, but can be beat by competent teams, of which UVA should be, but not playing up to that level lately. The biggest concern here is the current issues on UVA's O and the typical consistency GT plays with. The success of this ML will require an improved O we haven't seen in a while and a D that plays at a very high level, better than they have. They can do both, but will they?
 
Rice is perceived to be one of the worst teams in football, or down there somewhere. But they have competed in the games they are supposed to. Stanford, Houston and Pitt - Rice is not in the same ball park as Rice and it showed. Army? Well that is a bad loss the fact Rice wasn't able to compete in that game. Army is good, but black eye. However, UTEP, FIU, UTSA and LaTeach games. They either won or competed in those game. They lost 20-7 to UTSA but were SOD twice in RR terr, once in the RZ and managed 4 sacks. Vs LaTech Owls lost by 14, but tied 28-28 late 4th and Rice outgained them (LT got a pick-six at end of game after going up by a TD). Since their bye, the last 2 weeks and especially last week vs LT there are signs of life. Is UAB really this much better? Last time they were a fav 2 weeks ago they were upset by Charlotte. They were fortunate to beat LT by 1 (who missed two xpts) and MTSU they won by 2 because of a safety earlier in the game. UAB nice team, good story, but still have weaknesses. Rice, lots of turnovers, that is the concern....-13 last 4 games! But the Owl O is off their best (or 2nd best) game of the year. Having said that...on the road, not a real good team vs improving UAB seeking bowl eligibility, do I really want to ML that?
 
FSU is averaging roughly 18 points/game, and we are supposed to lay a touchdown to Syracuse? Not much news out of Tallahassee this week. QB coach is not getting retained, Sanders is gone after the year. That does nothing to warrant laying points to a confident team. I hate talking people off winners, so if your on the Noles (get your head examined) ignore this message. But, I can’t see the Noles winning this game. Personally will not be on anything. Vegas knows something. Just can’t figure it out. Early in the year, I can see name recognition carrying value. But the whole world knows how bad this team has performed.
 
s--k said:
I've heard that called "the unbeaten letdown", but never tracked it or known how to apply it.
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I'm on a mailing list from Tom Herbert, the "Procomputergambler." You can follow him on Twitter. He uses that SDQL stuff to generate trends like this one. FWIW, he's on Oregon State, Iowa State, USF, UConn, Texas, and Penn State (all ATS) today.
 
One that I keep getting a gut feeling about but may just be psychosis taking over ...
Coastal Carolina +24 and ML +1375 but have not played it (yet)
This is more of the under the radar game, big fade of Arkansas, game of the year / statement game for CC
CC has been in 6 out of 8 games losing those 6 by one score but know the talent gap this week is much bigger.
Arkansas coaching mess, Arkansas likely not much to play for, flat, partying, mentally shut down etc likely.
Welcome others input and talk me off or join me on the ledge lol
 
JROCK1966 said:
I'm on a mailing list from Tom Herbert, the "Procomputergambler." You can follow him on Twitter. He uses that SDQL stuff to generate trends like this one. FWIW, he's on Oregon State, Iowa State, USF, UConn, Texas, and Penn State (all ATS) today.
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I think he'll go 1-1 in the USF and UConn bets
 
Regarding Cuse/FSU...Cuse weakness is OL, mostly pass pro, they've been ok in spots running, but it may be more RB ability than OL doing work. Outside of that Cuse has some nice things in Dungey and the WRs. I like my chances with the ball in his hands. Tough D to go against if FSU right, but they haven't been right since week 2. Maybe they start to realize how bad it looks to the outside and start caring again, but hard to all of a sudden find motives and reasons to pull together when everything you play for is in the shitter. Cuse D has improved, we've all seen that. Still very vulnerable to the run and FSU can (or should be able to) do that usually. I'm going to play Cuse small ats and no ML just because I keep thinking that FSU can't lose all these games SU.
 
This is not a game I see Clemson dropping. Dani with a week to prepare before one of their worst games last season. I think we see maximum effort from Clemson for whatever that is worth.
 
Yes, I get nervous even with NCSt ats. I'm banking on the closeness of the last 2 in the series (2015 was close in the second half for a bit). Also banking on this NCSt team being better than the last 2 years (may end up not better than last year though) and Clemson while still elite for sure, not as good as 2015 and 2016. Catching a TD, I risk it. NCSt still can achieve all their ACC goals, a win here and they in the driver's seat for division and shot at title. Clemson knows this too and they own this league so, yeah, like you said only can count on their best in this one too. Pretty interesting game. Gut check for NCSt, how good is you? Show up at home and prove it vs the best. +7 I like the scenario.
 
I like Army. It will take some trend busting. AF dominates this series, won 4 in a row and a big majority of the last ton of games. AF D usually shuts down Army. This AF D not shutting anyone down this year, although this plays more to their strength. This is the most experienced Army team in quite some time. They broke the Navy 14 game losing streak last year. My aviatar is Army post beating Navy, loved that moment. It sums up everything I love about college football. Downtrodden teams finally breaking through in the biggest game vs their biggest rival and all the emotion that comes with it knowing all the pain that came before. This Army team is different than prior teams. They haven't won the commander-in-chief trophy since 1996. That is their #1 goal and the trip to the WH that comes with it, making this their #1 game. AF can't win the trophy outright with the loss to Navy, but they can still retain it with a win here and an Army win vs Navy (no WH trip in that scenario). So alot on the line for them, although talk lately has turned towards a MW run as well, 1-0 vs teams ahead of them and yet to play the other 2. Army has nothing else to care about, it's all in this week.
 
Anybody give Illinois a chance today? Early start. 2 bad teams in a rivalry game where the road team has had success (winning SU last 5). Illinois won 3 straight @Purdue. Both teams lost to Butgers so anything can happen here.
 
I am on Army +7 and under. I agree this is a more experienced army team that may be able to snap the streak.
 
C-MAN said:
Anybody give Illinois a chance today? Early start. 2 bad teams in a rivalry game where the road team has had success (winning SU last 5). Illinois won 3 straight @Purdue. Both teams lost to Butgers so anything can happen here.
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Thought about it. My hang up was that Purdue shouldn't have lost to Rutgers, or, they should've won that game. Rutgers was just better than Illinois. Rutgers isn't better than Purdue, they did make the plays that mattered most in the game however.

I don't know, I look at that line and I'm like 'damn' 14/447 I can't be that out of the question for them to win can it?

Biggest problem will be ILL D, which sucks. But Purdue not really that much better, better, but not sure enough to justify those numbers. Atleast Purdue has been impressive in their effort and the fact they've been able to play over their heads this year. Illinois has been impressive at nothing. But roll with your gut if you see it.
 
s--k,

Wouldn't it be easier to back an over if you like coastal? I say that because one of the main problems with flat teams or teams in coaching turmoil is that they fail to execute. Arkansas would have to fail to execute basic running plays in order to not score. Even a flat Arkansas would accidentally score a lot I think.
 
Indiana has lost its L4 vs Wiscy by an average of 52 pts! This goes back a few years, but still...wow!
 
vk said:
s--k,

Wouldn't it be easier to back an over if you like coastal? I say that because one of the main problems with flat teams or teams in coaching turmoil is that they fail to execute. Arkansas would have to fail to execute basic running plays in order to not score. Even a flat Arkansas would accidentally score a lot I think.
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That was CHSGTMD. CC appears too ugly of a dog even for me.

I did kind of compare the game to NMSt at Ark. The good thing about NMSt is you knew they would be able to move it and score. I did take that over, which barely went over I think. Yeah, no way CC is going to stop Ark O just like NMSt couldn't and NMSt is better on all accounts. Like you said Ark going to score some points even blindfolded in this one. I am not smart enough on CC to know what they like to do or how they will do it. Somebody must know more than me. I've actually heard a couple people like CC in this one. All like the big comeback angle last week against Ark, but it seems to ignore weighing how good or bad CC is and how they get it done. I'm open to listen, but don't think I'll have anything in this game. Would probably rather have Ark actually.
 
The two games I want to play but am scared to - Indiana & Wake Forest. I can't find a brave enough soul to take either lol
 
C-MAN said:
Indiana has lost its L4 vs Wiscy by an average of 52 pts! This goes back a few years, but still...wow!
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Probably skewed by that 2010 83-20 game! But the following years Wisky won 59-7 and 62-14 and 51-3!

Yeah, not historically a good matchup for them. They do have more D now than they did for those games, but on the other hand their O has gone away. I do remember the 02 game +11 in Bloomington IU wins 32-29.
 
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