Week 10 ML Dogs

ProV1Colt said:
So Miss +210 & WKU +310
Gonna be on both of these for sure.
Vandy & Vols are done for the season IMO.
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Western Ky was a good 1st Half ML play. Senior QB, better ranking of team defense, and TO margin is only -1 compared to Vandy's 0. I laid off because I got burnt on a similar 1st half ML play two weeks ago when Idaho got killed at Mizzou. I looked back on it and decided no more non-conference games in my 1st half plays. Having said that, you have me re-thinking if Vandy has quit. Mizzou was far from quitting two weeks ago. Maybe that's what happened....

:confused3:
 
JROCK1966 said:
Western Ky was a good 1st Half ML play. Senior QB, better ranking of team defense, and TO margin is only -1 compared to Vandy's 0. I laid off because I got burnt on a similar 1st half ML play two weeks ago when Idaho got killed at Mizzou. I looked back on it and decided no more non-conference games in my 1st half plays. Having said that, you have me re-thinking if Vandy has quit. Mizzou was far from quitting two weeks ago. Maybe that's what happened....

:confused3:
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The problem with comparing rankings in non-conference games is the failure to account for strength of schedule.
 
Vandy competed well last week. I don't know how you could say they quite after last week. Had they laid an egg and not competed then maybe. But what happened vs SC that makes you think they have quit? Or you are assuming that now because of that loss that now they are quitting? I'm not saying WKU is or isn't a good play, doubt I have any side there, but I think I would want to back it up with other reasons other than the assumption Vandy is mailing the rest of the season in.
 
Tennessee also competed vs Kentucky. But man the talent differential and Kentucky's typical second-half fade. To lose to them for first time in what 30 years is something. Their performance vs umass wasn't too inspiring and now they have a qb who can't throw downfield and what's Kelly's deal?
 
Yeah I have no idea on Tennessee. In general I don't have any fear of playing on Vandy. I'm not laying pts with them, but just in general. I would not play on Tennessee, but wouldn't auto fade them either. This week if I had to I would rather have SMiss +pts and upset surely would not surprise. SM is a little more unpredictable than your average team as well.
 
Ya know I may not even know what I'm talking about. Vandy needs 3 of their last 4 gms to be bowl eligible. WKU, UK, Mizzu,@ Vols

They will want to be in a bowl.

As for the Vols, I do see some improvement but so much talk of a new coach, these kids may not even give a shit. I'll keep my finger on the trigger but not make a move just yet.
 
VirginiaCavs said:
Tennessee also competed vs Kentucky. But man the talent differential and Kentucky's typical second-half fade. To lose to them for first time in what 30 years is something. Their performance vs umass wasn't too inspiring and now they have a qb who can't throw downfield and what's Kelly's deal?
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Kentucky winning for the 2nd time in 32 years was more of the story rather than Tennessee losing for the 2nd time in 32 years. UK has had such a humongous mental barrier to get over playing both Tenn & Florida it is unreal. I cannot really describe the weight that has been lifted off the program after that win. It was worse than the Red Sox or Cubs not winning a world series in 100 years. At least with pro sports, the ownership can spend money if they so wish to buy great players. To recruit good football players to a program like Kentucky and then develop them.....really there has been zero hope, for this, for decades. Basketball was the only thing anyone in charge ever cared about. Only within the past 5 years has the people in charge started to do the necessary things to improve that program. And even then, the mental barrier preventing success on the field was incredible. It took some luck, like UT missing some FGs, and then the leadership of Stephen Johnson to make plays at crunch time top get it done. Actually, I'm still in shock.
 
VirginiaCavs said:
The problem with comparing rankings in non-conference games is the failure to account for strength of schedule.
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Strength of schedule is over-rated at this point in the season. IMO, it loses it's importance in handicapping ncaa foots after about week 5 or 6. Idaho led Appy St. the whole game, the week before, and lost it in the last seconds. They were mentally done the next week at Mizzou and got ripped for it. Not trying to take much away from Mizzou because they were playing well, but the score was way inflated more due to Idaho not competing and not necessarily due to sos. Just my humble opinion.
 
I like Oklahoma, but took the 3 on the open rather than ML.

Leans on a couple more:
Iowa State
Texas
Oregon depending on QB
I though sure I'd get points with W State, but didn't happen

I rarely take the ML on dogs. I prefer the points, but I like this thread because it gets me to thinking about various dogs I might not otherwise consider.
 
Marsski said:
How good do we think Brandon Peters is? I could see Minnesota winning an ugly, low scoring Little Brown Jug. If Michigan can get to 24 its probably too much though...
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1. Brandon was very highly rated and got everyone hyped during the spring. I loved his game in HS. More about him in B1G thread today but there are a myriad of known and unknown reasons why he is just playing now...

2. If Michigan gets to 24, they win. Bottom line.

3. Now, this is going to be a wet, cold game. Anything can happen.

4. Harbaugh shortens the games this year. It is one reason I do not like them ever trying to comeback in a game

5. We'll see how prepared UM is for a 'weather' game because they really messed up the MSU game after the first two times they had the ball with regards to managing a game that would essentially be decided in 3 quarters of play

6. So, rain and wet with a shortened game has to favor the dog one would think...

7. Minnesota is a tire fire but this game is going to be ugly. Anything can happen.

8. High expectations this week withe the B.P. era underway. Methinks that this is an awful situation to get that first full game but hopefully they manage the game well and get out with something like a 20-10 victory.
 
Guess nobody is on anything tonight? Temple can, but would rather have pts. Idaho, maybe could, but again would rather have pts.
 
Thought the same thing with Idaho, but think Troy was humbled by USA. Points would require 14-17 Idaho TT to cover in my opinion.
 
I might take that TT over for Idaho, I rarely even look at those, I show 15.5 on my end. Think they can score a 'fair' amount, upper teens is surely attainable even though Troy scoring D is good. Not going to ML Idaho I don't think because while I think Idaho D may be ok some of the time, don't think they can consistently stop Troy and trade back-and-forth with them. Troy should have many more successful drives. Still think Troy is off compared to my expectations I had for them this year, but they are better than Idaho. Think Idaho is ok team, as we've said, couple steps off from last year, but still have some decent pieces on O and D. They really should've beat App St ,but again, as we know there too, App St not as good either so comparisons are tough when teams aren't who we thought they were/are/or should be.
 
Agreed, but straight up I think I would take App St over Troy. I realize the 2 games were played gome/away, and Troys HF is not that daunting.
 
booksbestfriend said:
Agreed, but straight up I think I would take App St over Troy. I realize the 2 games were played gome/away, and Troys HF is not that daunting.
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Just want to make sure I follow what you think, when you say you'd take App over Troy, do you mean you think App is better than Troy? Not sure I would disagree even though I think App St is down, Troy not always playing their best either. Maybe down not a good word, but not playing as well as they could.

We probably agree that Ark St best in that league. App St doesn't play Ark St or Troy...messed up. Cake walk to atleast a share of the league title and they are playing like it, not bringing their best almost weekly.
 
Damn my line just got smacked down from 19.5 to 17.5.

I was going to ask Idaho +19.5 at Troy. Idaho+14 at Missouri. Troy -5.5 vs Missouri? Although the folly in that is the new Idaho at Mizzou line wouldn't be 14 this time around.
 
Still looking...Idaho seems to play well away vs group of 5 teams, 10-1 ATS. Not all those games are applicable because some of those are bad teams. Bolded the ones vs the better SBC teams.
-2017-
+3.5 at USA won by 6
+20.5 at WM lost by 9
-2016-
-8.5 at TxSt won by 33
+4.5 at ULL won by 10
+21 at App St lost by 18
+3 at ULM won by 3
+15 at UNLV won by 3
-2015-
+9 at SBama lost by 7
-7 at NMSt lost by 7
+10.5 at Troy won by 3
+22.5 at Ark St lost by 14
 
This is one of your specials. I like the points, but it is hard to put a straight up on them. You know my wager amounts on ML and even I can’t bing myself to lay it.

Travel is a concern fo the Vandals. Troy played GASo last week. Not much of a game. GASo covered though.
 
Yeah, inferior teams getting bunch of pts. I do love that stuff. With the situation, I don't want to ML against Troy with so much on the line for them in the SBC. I guess even for me, I would be mildly surprised if Idaho won.
 
good call s-k on the Idaho TT over 16

Narrowing things down for tomorrow and still liking the plays I mentioned earlier.
Southern Miss +215
Ole Miss +160
staying with +3 1/2 I got early on Iowa St and not ML which is now down to +115
going to add Arizona points and ML +255

going smaller with the following on 80/20 percentage
Minnesota +15 and ML +500
Western Kentucky +10 and ML +285
Iowa +18 and ML +675
SMU +15 and ML +415
 
Ive been going back n forth on iowa st v wvu a ton. Iowa st defense has been legit and their qb...is he set for regression?

Meanwhile i have a crush on wvu offense so im biased most likely.

What are you seeing as the defining characteristics to iowa st?
 
I'm going to thank booksbestfriend for planting the seed on the Idaho TT...never in question right? haha. Feel bad for him that he missed on the first half TT ov though. FG kicker that rarely misses missed that 40yer on opening drive. Anyway my overall takehome on that game would've been less without it. Good game for Idaho, great effort. Continually just wonder how good this Troy team is all season long.
 
So what do we have tonight? Any cases to be made?

I do like Marshall.

Not much time before dinner and kickoff.

Last week was a rough one for Marshall. I did like FIU so that result didn't completely take me by surprise. Marshall outgained FIU by 100 yards in the 11 pt loss. Herd fumbled on their 2nd play (3 play 14y FIU TD drive), SOD at F27, SOD F30 (11y loss from a bad hold on 36y FG att), SOD F36, threw INT at own 7 (pick-six FIU), threw INT at F21. Marshall was -3 TOs, FIU didn't turn it over once. FIU passed for by far their best 77% (14 of 18) and rushed for 224y on what had been a strong Herd D. Alot of things went right for FIU and alot went wrong for Marshall, but I believe they are still a quality team with a good O and good D and last's week result is not indicative of the kind of team Marshall is.

In CUSA games only, Marshall is allowing just 14.3 ppg, best in the league by almost a TD over #2. FAU scoring D is 10th at 26.8. Scoring O, big tilt to FAU 1st with 51.8 ppg!, Marshall is 3rd with 29.3. The yardage allowed and gained is similar to the scoring rankings...Marshall #1 D 270.8 allowed, FAU 9th 414.5. FAU #1 O 563.5, Marshall 411.5. It is worth noting that FAU's 804 yards and 69 pts on NTex do skew the stats since that is almost double the normal stats of most teams in a single game.

FAU is surely a quality team as well that has bought in, grown and has some impressive performances. Their O, really the running game and RB Singletary are really going to test Marshall's run D. FAU is avg 422 ypg rushing the last 3 games! FAU is currently in sole possession of 1st place in the east division, 1 game ahead of Marshall and FIU.

Couple interesting things:

Marshall doesn't get sacked very often, giving up just 3 in 277 attempts.

FAU gains the most first downs in their CUSA games, 29 per (49% conversions). But they also allow the most first downs to the opponent, 25 per. Opp convert 48% of their 3rd downs on FAU. Marshall O is among the leagues best with a 47% conv rate while D allowing just 28%.

FAU is believing and have alot to play for and have earned their respect. Marshall was on a mission to atone for last year's subpar season, that was derailed last week. How will they respond here?

Marshall has good QB, WR, TE, OL and capable RB unit - I tend to trust the O in this game against an ok Owl D. The Marshall D was humbled last week. It will be tough to handle the FAU O, it will be a challenge but feel they have a pretty solid D and can play good enough. Tough game to ML that could go either way, I'll take a shot at the ML with Marshall off the loss. I like them better off the loss and there is more value on them as a result of it.

I don't have time to post here, but look into FAU's game last week vs WKU. Misleading win for FAU in that one.
 
s--k said:
This may get ugly, Herd look slow or is it FAU looks so fast?
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After looking at the game a second time from making a -9.5 bet earlier in the week I was starting to question my initial bet after seeing the line drop on top of that. Still early.
 
Marshall having trouble running. Pass game may be ok, but 2 false start and O PI calls hurting. 3qrt to go, but definitely would not take MU to win straight up at this point.
 
Crimson K posted Rosen possibly out for UCLA but have not seen confirmation of that
Utah TT at 31.5 on 5Dimes and BOL
 
rambler882 said:
Ive been going back n forth on iowa st v wvu a ton. Iowa st defense has been legit and their qb...is he set for regression?

Meanwhile i have a crush on wvu offense so im biased most likely.

What are you seeing as the defining characteristics to iowa st?
Click to expand...

I think one week of good play, success, upset is one thing but Iowa St has been bringing it week after week
If they would have had a let down woulda been after OU win but they demolished Kansas then came back with another strong road win at TxTech
The QB and offense get a lot of attention, good story line but their defense has really improved week to week.
Like the momentum they have on both sides, proven road dog, think OK St showed WVa weaknesses and expect Iowa St to capitalize
 
Vols have 7 active OL. 2 are hurting but giving it a go.
I pulled the trigger on So Miss.
still looking at WKU
 
s--k said:
Marshall having trouble running. Pass game may be ok, but 2 false start and O PI calls hurting. 3qrt to go, but definitely would not take MU to win straight up at this point.
Click to expand...
Just got home. No play yet. Are you giving the,
M no chance. Scoring has slowed. Like Marshall’s D better than FAU. 2nd ML? Si or no.
 
booksbestfriend said:
Just got home. No play yet. Are you giving the,
M no chance. Scoring has slowed. Like Marshall’s D better than FAU. 2nd ML? Si or no.
Click to expand...

Marshall hurting themselves when they have the ball. Litton has been high on two passes that got INT'd. Herd missed FG - made one. FAU D should be vulnerable, Mar getting yards, but not cashing for pts.

FAU has slowed on O, thankfully. The pace they were setting on the first drive was going to wear me out let alone the Herd D!

Am I giving Mar no chance? I feel better now than I did mid 1st qrt when it was 13-0. I'm a gambler, don't mind having to take my chances on the +6.5, but if I could get out of the game ML I would. Second half odds see what they look like.
 
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