Week 10 ML Dogs

Best performers, teams with 3 or more:

Arizona St +506, +711, +267
Cal +410, +237, +639
Boston College +639, +207, +199 (3 straight weeks)
FIU +100, +368, +506
Iowa St +4500, +180, +226 (back-to-back weeks)
Maryland +664, +416, +203
South Carolina +267, +115, +130, +130
UAB +263, +166, +371

We talk about so many different games each week and it is always easy to look back at the ones we missed. Maybe IU outplayed them and maybe they should've won, but still what was Indiana doing as a 6.5 pt road favorite? Duh!
 
GT trend in 1h after facing ranked opponent: sluggish start. Planning on backing UVA 1h

Oregon in anticipation of Herbert

Florida in spot after coach firing
 
All good. I have been freakn slammed this weekend. I will get Winners and #s posted from the plane.
Thanks for getting it started this week s--k
I was not able to watch one down of football this weekend. Pretty sad

Back to the grind this week!
 
Some quick thoughts

Temple +274 - Can't think of any better time to face Navy...Owls off Army, off bye

Marshall +298 - Some may be alarmed at FIU's upset in Huntington last week, but that doesn't bother me a bit, adds value is all I see.

Kansas +270 - I can't possibly play that can I? But 0-8 Baylor a near DD road fav makes me laugh. Kansas is the laughing stock though.

Texas A&M +488 - Nothing to like off the Miss St beatdown. Probably better to just play with the spread.

Indiana +290 - If Wisconsin plays like they did at ILL last week IU can do this, but UW probably plays better.

Michigan St +258 - Don't really like it that much but feel compelled to list it as it wouldn't surprise me all that much. Going to be a tough test for MSU D. I don't expect a hangover from the Ohio St game, but playing Mich-OSU-MSU in a row is tough.

Syracuse +152 - Don't feel good doubting FSU to not win this game, but I saw the BC game. I like Syracuse team.

Virginia +321 - Seems like a high line and odds here even though I know UVA is in a rough patch right now.

Rice +367 - Just looks weird seeing UAB 11.5 fav over anyone. They are good, how do they handle success. Rice had life last week, could'a won!

North Carolina St +250 - NCSt missed FG for win last year and two years ago it was just 6pt game mid3rd before Clem scored 2 straight.

Charlotte +282 - 49ers off win and off bye...ODU this big of fav? They are better, I probably won't play, just seems weird.

Army +250 - AF D is bad, but their O is very good. AF won by DD last 4 years and their D usually does a number on Army. This Army O does feel a little different, so does this AF D. But vs similar, familiar opponent AF D has a chance to surprise...although Navy gashed them.

South Carolina +1500 - Yup, longshot fo sho. I have nothing to say at this point, so yeah.

Wake Forest +400 - Without Dortch this game just got alot tougher for WF and probably less likely. Super S Bates was injured vs LV also.

Cincinnati +193 - The game vs SMU has to give some confidence, off bye. Tulane can play well, although they have had some rough moments this year. Just not sure Cincy can't win this game. Banks has been a disappointment for Tulane at QB, they are much better just when giving the ball to their RBs.

Oregon St +282 - This team is night and day with Hall as HC. Really liked how they played vs CU and they were tough vs OreSt but still made too many mistakes bad teams do. Now they go on the road...Cal is better than them, but Cal not that great either.

Utah St +163 - NM is no good this year. Utah St far from their normal self as well, but I see more I like with Aggies.

Hawaii +245 - QB for UNLV ?, but they were fine last week without him. UH not having a good year, but should UNLV really be favored this high? Guess Rebel run O should have field day and UH hasn't shown ability to trade scores all day this year.

FIU +163 - Why not? Team is believing, buying in and thinking they are good. UTSA solid, but had some curious games this year enough to make me question them (Rice + UTEP - maybe Roadrunners just didn't care that much for those).

SMU +425 - USF goes down last week, UCF this week. Well UCF is quite a bit better to me than USF, but SMU is good. I would be surprised if SMU doesn't compete in this game.

Texas +220 - TCU is good, but are they really that good or just about as good as a handful of other Big Xll teams (including Texas)? What can they do that Texas can't handle?

Oregon +??? - Having Herbert is critical and will give them a big boost. This is a big rivalry in the northwest. UW still just leaves something to be desired.

Arizona +238 - Probably not. USC scared me last week.
 
GT trend in 1h after facing ranked opponent: sluggish start. Planning on backing UVA 1h

Oregon in anticipation of Herbert

Florida in spot after coach firing
I was going to ask you about your Hoos! I'm seeing a 1st half play as well but am a bit chapped after this past weekend.

Will put more as I wrap it up but my card is going to look down right ugly!! But it has me somewhat excited at the same time. I am seeing a few terrible defenses with big spreads.

:campfire:
 
I was going to ask you about your Hoos! I'm seeing a 1st half play as well but am a bit chapped after this past weekend.

Will put more as I wrap it up but my card is going to look down right ugly!! But it has me somewhat excited at the same time. I am seeing a few terrible defenses with big spreads.

:campfire:

God we suck. Qb missing wide open throws with our anemic offense. Defense missing every tackle. But GT seems to consistently be sluggish in the 1h after every big game even vs Jacksonville State! So GT as a 1h play seems trappy! So reasonably I think UVA covers 1h and then GT breaksaway with an easy slug. We've been prone to giving up big runs, this was clear vs unc then bc then pitt and fill in the blank vs the top rushing attack!
 
All good. I have been freakn slammed this weekend. I will get Winners and #s posted from the plane.
Thanks for getting it started this week s--k
I was not able to watch one down of football this weekend. Pretty sad

Back to the grind this week!

If you pm it to me I can edit my first post and put it in there if you would want it at the top of the thread instead of burried within it.
 
How good do we think Brandon Peters is? I could see Minnesota winning an ugly, low scoring Little Brown Jug. If Michigan can get to 24 its probably too much though...
 
LOL at the write up for SC. You lack the vigor in comparison to your last big time upset call haha(syracuse). I was pretty doom and gloom coming into this game because some of the things that have gashed SC the last few weeks UGA should do pretty easily. I agree with gsp_3 that Muschamp will be able to scheme this up well. My worry is if SC loads the box and forces man on the outside, if UGA has done their homework, they should have a decent time picking that apart as well. The other concern is about how Roper schemes the game up. Personally, I just do not think SC can sustain drives and keep the ball out of UGA hands. Success would be much more likely in my eyes if we were scoring rather quickly like in Vandy and the D schemes to make Fromm pass. In that scenario I could see a shootout going in our favor with some turnovers. If SC tries to make it a slow ugly game then the D will get leaned on and eventually break.
 
So far, and I'll explain more in detail as the week wears on, my card has these possibles. They all either check off or come very close to the more experienced QB, better overall def, and/or turnover margin theory. All 1st Half ML plays unless otherwise noted:

Texas State
Indiana
Charlotte
Kansas (s--k may not but I am! Ha-Ha!)
UVA
Army

Interesting for me...these lines are so big they should make the 1st Qtr lines have a bit of value.
USCjr (1st Quarter ML) -- sandwich game between Gators and Auburn...and unlike the last time I faded Jawja in a sandwich game, this team plays a bit stingier on the defensive side....enough so they can hang for 15 minutes with a lead.
Coastal Carolina (1st Quarter ML) -- you know CCU has a senior QB who seems to be putting up numbers and Arkansas starts slow even without coming off a huge late-game winner. Another one in which the 1st Quarter line should have some value.
UMass (1st Quarter ML) -- he they held John Kelly to "only" 101yds, and they're coming off what had to be a big win for them vs. Appy St. Miss. St. has Bama on deck....think I can catch 'em napping for at least 15 minutes? Again the 1st Qtr ML could be worth a shot.

Still looking....

:toilet2:
 
Adding a few more possibles:

NC State (1st Half ML)
Iowa State (1st Half ML)
ECU (1st Quarter) - I know their defense is awful but Houston gives up yds as well. Houston is also negative in TO margin same as ECU. Their QB play is very similar and, if Houston starts the underclassman QB instead of Postma, ECU will have an edge at experience at the QB spot. Another line where the 1st Qtr ML could have some value.

Did I say my card will look ugly??

:shocked2:
 
First run through.

UF (+145)
Syr (+155)
N Tex (+145)
Stanford ???
Ole Miss (+145)
Cincy (+175)
Oklahoma ???
U-La-La (+175)
AZ(+220)

I agree with a lot of games already mentioned too. Seems like a dog weekend on first sight.
 
First run through.

UF (+145)
Syr (+155)
N Tex (+145)
Stanford ???
Ole Miss (+145)
Cincy (+175)
Oklahoma ???
U-La-La (+175)
AZ(+220)

I agree with a lot of games already mentioned too. Seems like a dog weekend on first sight.

I love dog weekends, they're the best, considering that the public likes favorites
 
Michigan state - worried msu might be looking ahead but penn state apparently has the worst offensive line in cfb history and sparty might shut the door on the running game, forcing the skill guys McSorley and Hamilton to carry the load. They have been up to the task most of the year though.
 
Thinking out loud....Last week I mentioned D8 saying it's about the time of year the lines tightened up for his 1st Half plays. Two weeks ago I thought I recognized 9 of them with 3 or 4 sizeable odds. Last week, there were only 4 and most of them were the +115 variety. This week, I do not see any dogs with all the 3 boxes checked. So the lines are definitely tightened up. Having said that, and I already was thinking this last week, why limit myself to just senior QBs? Why not expand the range and look for dogs with gaps in QB experience even though the dog's QB might not be a senior? I tried to do that with this run as I'll have to dig a little deeper for some plays....it's not so easy is it?

I was most pissed with myself and my Texas Tech pic last Saturday. I had a bad feeling about TTech being able to stop a Mayfield led offense. But I also felt there was a play in that game somewhere, and I just could not put my finger on it, so I rolled with it anyway. It was not until the end of the 1st Qtr when I thought I figured it out. So, hence my thoughts with the 1st Qtr plays I listed above. I feel very similar in that there is some play to be had in these games as well. Whereas, I have some serious doubts that these teams can hang in there all 4 Qtrs, and even hang in there for a half, I believe we might be able to sneak up on them for 15 minutes. All these games are >-20 favorites so the 1st Qtr odds should still hold some value!

UMass - MSU has Bama on deck and UMass has been able to slow the run down a bit against UT & Appy State (even thought Appy St. ran for above their average.) UMass coming off a great win so they may be actually looking forward to this trip. I watched BYU / MSU two weeks ago and, even though MSU won handily, the crowd was not into the game at all. It was a very boring game. With Bama on deck and UMass being a non-conference opponent, Starkville might not be a very exciting place to watch a game this Saturday. I'm hoping MSU is a little lethargic and UMass is able to stiffen up and stop Fitz early.

South Carolina - Georgia has yet to have a letdown this season. Even Bama had somewhat of a letdown at TXa&m a few weeks ago. I thought I was onto it when Mizzou visited but Mizzou's defense is just so woeful and couldn't stop anything. Can Jake Fromm really come to play every single Saturday?? Seems like this might be a Saturday where some Bulldogs get a late-start being it's in between Florida & Auburn games. I watched the Vandy / USCjr game and, after winning, Muschamp was fired up. I think they'll go into Athens with a "nothing to lose attitude," give it their best, and I do think , Muschamp will put his defense in its best position to compete. Again, with Georgia sitting at -24, the 1st Qtr odds should still hold some value when they come out.

ECU - their defense is awful. I know that. The rank 129th giving up 577ypg. But Houston ranks 91st giving up 422ypg. Both teams are negative in TO margin...ECU -7 and Houston -3. The thing that intrigues me is ECU has a senior QB (Sirk) that ranks 86th in efficiency. Postma was not that far ahead ranking 74th. With the huge win in Tampa last weekend, Houston's defense might start off the game, against lowly ECU, a bit overconfident and hopefully not very intense. ECU is coming off a bye week and their best game of the year. Again, at -24.5, the odds should hold some value for us for the 1st Qtr and I think we'll see ECU put up some pts early. Also, this game may be a shootout in the 1st half so the Over a possibility as well.

CCU - kinda similar situation as the UMass game and ECU game. Arkansas coming off an emotional come from behind win for their first SEC win. Their defense is still bad. CCU has a senior QB that is putting up numbers. Yes, there is a gap in schedule strength so that is a concern. But hey! It's gambling man!! Who knows, I'm hoping Arkansas doesn't stop celebrating their 1st SEC win until next week sometime. If so, CCU might be able to put up some pts early. Again, with the fav at -24, we should see some decent 1st Qtr +ML odds.

Hope that does not sound too crazy.....

:crazy:
 
I don't think CC can hang with Arkansas and with @LSU, vs Miss st, vs Mizz on deck and 3 wins ... I don't think Arkansas can look past CC enough to lay a complete egg. Of course, I am talking about four qtrs of play .. they are definitely capable of shitting the bed in the first quarter and based on last weeks result there is a chance CC was looking ahead to this game.
 
I don't think CC can hang with Arkansas and with @LSU, vs Miss st, vs Mizz on deck and 3 wins ... I don't think Arkansas can look past CC enough to lay a complete egg. Of course, I am talking about four qtrs of play .. they are definitely capable of shitting the bed in the first quarter and based on last weeks result there is a chance CC was looking ahead to this game.
Yep, CCU is definitely the one I feel least strongly about. But, again, 15 minutes is all I'm hoping for and Arkansas thought they won the NT last week. CCU can sneak some pts. in on 'em.
 
Have had 2 bad weeks after doing pretty well first 6 weekends so here goes
So far liking Ole Miss / Iowa State / Southern Miss
Leans to Minnesota / Western Kentucky
 
How good do we think Brandon Peters is? I could see Minnesota winning an ugly, low scoring Little Brown Jug. If Michigan can get to 24 its probably too much though...

The Michigan fans would be better to respond, but my opinion from what I saw Peters was certainly an upgrade over OKorn and Speight. The bar was low, but still I thought he looked good, competent.

There is the lack of experience angle, but I'd take Peters right now. Heard people have been asking "if he was good enough why hasn't he got a chance yet". I think the answer could be that Harbaugh being a former QB didn't want to throw the upperclassmen to the side and give them every opportunity to retain the job.

Minnesota has been very good at getting turnovers, so there is that angle.

That would be an upset that surprises me, I just haven't thought much of Min most of the year.
 
The JRock stream of consciousness!

I don't think I would like 1st qrt underdog ML betting. If the favorite gets a TD you are pretty much screwed because you then need the dog to score twice with a limited amount of possessions in a 15 minute period, right?. But I always support people doing things that make sense to them, surely I do things that don't always make sense to others.
 
LOL at the write up for SC. You lack the vigor in comparison to your last big time upset call haha(syracuse).

Yeah, I know.

Thinking back to some of the biggest and most unexpected upset wins I've been part of this year, Troy, Syracuse and Arizona St...there was something you could put your finger on, some weakness shown in those favorites LSU, Clemson, Washington. It wasn't strong in Clemson, but you could see they had some games they didn't seem to care much and played down to teams. So that was the weakness there. LSU we saw they weren't all that much better than Syracuse the prior week to Troy and generally didn't look all that special, like vs Miss St. So that was the angle for Troy. With Washington we had first half and road struggles, which showed up at AzSt.

With Georgia, what is the weakness? Where is the vulnerability? Other than possible some angle of a quality QB and a passing game doing something to their D that isn't often done, I don't have much. Maybe Fromm has some questions, but he just isn't asked or needed to do much because of how their O operates. I'm not sure that is the kind of vulnerability that leads to an "ok, here is what can happen" type thing.

So, at any rate, on Monday night all I can say is that there is something inside of me that thinks SC can win that game. As the week goes on maybe something will come to me that makes sense. Until then you've presented a scenario that could lead to SC competing. Right now I have nothing other than a hunch. Big payout with Troy, Syracuse and ArzSt are really nice. But remember I also had big ML dog losses on FIU vs UCF, NTex vs SMU, SMU vs TCU, Akron vs Troy, Northwestern vs Wisconsin, NMexSt vs Arkansas, Syracuse vs Miami, UK vs Miss St and most recently Duke vs VT. SC vs Georgia is more likely to end up on the loser list, but I like taking chances and there is nothing, nothing funner for me than hitting a big upset. So gonna keep trying. Only problem is they usually don't look likely on paper. But that is why they are so awesome when they happen.
 
There is some history, albeit under Richt, when they played the 2nd game of the year. Spurrier made Richt his bitch for a few years there. I do agree that this is a different beast.
 
Yeah, I know.

Thinking back to some of the biggest and most unexpected upset wins I've been part of this year, Troy, Syracuse and Arizona St...there was something you could put your finger on, some weakness shown in those favorites LSU, Clemson, Washington. It wasn't strong in Clemson, but you could see they had some games they didn't seem to care much and played down to teams. So that was the weakness there. LSU we saw they weren't all that much better than Syracuse the prior week to Troy and generally didn't look all that special, like vs Miss St. So that was the angle for Troy. With Washington we had first half and road struggles, which showed up at AzSt.

With Georgia, what is the weakness? Where is the vulnerability? Other than possible some angle of a quality QB and a passing game doing something to their D that isn't often done, I don't have much. Maybe Fromm has some questions, but he just isn't asked or needed to do much because of how their O operates. I'm not sure that is the kind of vulnerability that leads to an "ok, here is what can happen" type thing.

So, at any rate, on Monday night all I can say is that there is something inside of me that thinks SC can win that game. As the week goes on maybe something will come to me that makes sense. Until then you've presented a scenario that could lead to SC competing. Right now I have nothing other than a hunch. Big payout with Troy, Syracuse and ArzSt are really nice. But remember I also had big ML dog losses on FIU vs UCF, NTex vs SMU, SMU vs TCU, Akron vs Troy, Northwestern vs Wisconsin, NMexSt vs Arkansas, Syracuse vs Miami, UK vs Miss St and most recently Duke vs VT. SC vs Georgia is more likely to end up on the loser list, but I like taking chances and there is nothing, nothing funner for me than hitting a big upset. So gonna keep trying. Only problem is they usually don't look likely on paper. But that is why they are so awesome when they happen.
I will try. 1) Georgia is due for some sort of letdown performance. They have played at a high level all season and I have almost never seen anything like their consistency. This is rare. 2) SC is believing in themselves. I watched that game vs Vandy and saw the look on Muschamp as he was headed across the field to shake hands. He knows his guys are starting to “get it.” I really think the Bulldogs are going to surprised at how hard the Cocks (did I really just say that?) will start this game. I’m not saying USCjr will win the game but I am saying it is going to be a lot closer than people predict. The 1st Qtr & 1st Half lines will offer a ton of value IMHO! Peace.
 
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The JRock stream of consciousness!

I don't think I would like 1st qrt underdog ML betting. If the favorite gets a TD you are pretty much screwed because you then need the dog to score twice with a limited amount of possessions in a 15 minute period, right?. But I always support people doing things that make sense to them, surely I do things that don't always make sense to others.
I think I can make a case of a possible letdown / poor start for each fav. USCjr I talked about above. MSU has Bama on deck and I have already watched a home game of theirs vs a non-con opponent where their stadium was virtually lifeless. Houston coming off their best game, a huge win, and now they have nothing to fear about a home game vs a seemingly lowly opponent. What is motivating them to play hard vs. ECU? Arkansas was acting like they won the NT after that game last weekend. They may still celebrate into next week! 3 out of the 4 dogs have senior QBs that are putting up respectable numbers. Hey man! It’s gambling of course anything can happen. I’m just saying if you want to identify some big doggies with possible angles, then why not these 4? Peace x 2!
 
Thinking back to some of the biggest and most unexpected upset wins I've been part of this year, Troy, Syracuse and Arizona St...there was something you could put your finger on, some weakness shown in those favorites LSU, Clemson, Washington. It wasn't strong in Clemson, but you could see they had some games they didn't seem to care much and played down to teams. So that was the weakness there.

I don't buy that at all. The Syracuse loss was nothing more than a staff playing two QBs who had no business being on the field. Even so, Clemson still could have won if its PK weren't out with a torn ACL.
 
There is some history, albeit under Richt, when they played the 2nd game of the year. Spurrier made Richt his bitch for a few years there. I do agree that this is a different beast.
I hate that this was shifted away from. People nationally don't even view SC/UGA as a semi rivalry game as well and it was most definitely the case when the game was second game of the season. I miss that big time. Also, the Tennessee game would be the weekend of Halloween.
 
Always loved the Vols/SCary Halloween gm
Same. My girl was commenting about that a few weeks ago during the Tennessee game and how it didn't feel right playing Tennessee not on Halloween. Vols orange, SCary... seemed to be a perfect fit haha
 
JRock:

I like the angles and like the way you identify teams. Keep 'em coming. For me, the 1st qrt ML deal isn't for me and I might rather take +pts in 1st half, but that is just me. You identifying teams that appeal to you and we all can weigh those vs our own feelings is what it is all about!

MW:

I'd have to go back and read my post the night before the Clem-Cuse game, but in trying to explain why I thought Syracuse could win I had to come up with something to share here. I didn't want to just say something like 'you never know, anything is possible'. So I tried to point to the BC and WF games as examples where Clem doesn't put forth the same effort. And then I believe I also wondered if Dungey and the Cuse O was best equipped to test the Clem secondary like nobody else before. I think some of that played out. Now, I make all kinds of justifications to who I bet. I've won games that didn't meet any expectations of how it would be played. I've lost games that did reveal some of my feelings. It's just one of those things, when you are going to try and tell somebody a 3 score dog can win SU, the footing you are on isn't the strongest so you try and come up with angles. That is all I did. Clemson should've won the game, but the better team doesn't always win. Would a healthy quality kicker and better QB play helped them, yes. Would they've won the game because of it? We'll never know.

Maybe Wake's O has an advantage going up against former DC?

Sometimes I like angles like that, but other times I don't know how to take it. WF staff and players know the tendencies and wrinkles of the former DC. But the former DC knows the player personnel and philosophies of other staff members as well.

I would like to think about a WF potential upset. I would love that to tell you the truth. But I'm hung up on the Dortch injury. I know some people say don't pay attention to injuries when deciding who to bet or how much to bet. Fine. I go both ways on that, it just depends. Regarding Dortch for a team like WF who doesn't have elite game changing players, when a team like WF loses one they are definitely worse off for it. It doesn't eliminate their chances, but certainly makes it alot harder.
 
Same. My girl was commenting about that a few weeks ago during the Tennessee game and how it didn't feel right playing Tennessee not on Halloween. Vols orange, SCary... seemed to be a perfect fit haha
Exactly. And ya'll wear the black uni's. I still have my Black Vols jersey from years ago. 14 Eric Berry Black Jersey (we lost that gm at home)
 
Have a strange feeling Kent State wins tonight. Not going to bet it because I cannot make the case for it well, within the confines of how I handicap ... but my alarm bells are going off.
 
Have a strange feeling Kent State wins tonight. Not going to bet it because I cannot make the case for it well, within the confines of how I handicap ... but my alarm bells are going off.
Spider senses? MAC is known to throw a curve ball. Perfect opportunity. Line jumped and got bet down.
 
Have a strange feeling Kent State wins tonight. Not going to bet it because I cannot make the case for it well, within the confines of how I handicap ... but my alarm bells are going off.

Kent sometimes plays D vs similar teams, but the O is pretty bad in all areas. BG has no D, O plays well vs similar teams. I think I'm throwing 50 on BG.

Lots of line movement on MiaOh. Guess that means Ragland is a go. I'm listening to Miami Oh radio network, but haven't heard confirmation yet.
 
Would be sad for MOH not to get bowl eligible this year. Pretty good MAC team. Not looking good with a loss here.
 
Losing the BG and Kent games is really rough for MiaOh. Going 3-1 from here is possible, but not sure how likely based on some bad luck they've had. If Ragland is back maybe they can.
 
More thinking out loud....my 1st Half plays will come from these dogs:

Texas State - Senior QB Damian Williams is not great as he ranks 100 in QB efficiency but, because he is a senior, check 1 box. Tyler Rogers ranks higher but he is middle of the pack at 62nd so it's not like this is a huge gap. Texas State ranks 51st in total defense, NM St. ranks 66th so check a 2nd box. NM St. ranks 91st in TO margin, Texas State 120th so we cannot check a 3rd box. However, NM St is overall a negative TO margin so I like that they are at least not positive. Texas State comes very close as a dog that checks all 3 boxes. They don't but they are home so I'll play 'em! Last Saturday, I was 4-3 in my 1st Half FBS plays....the 4 wins came from home teams and the 3 losses were all on the road.

Kansas - Did Baylor really open up at -10 on the road?? It's already -7.5 so I hope there's some value left for me by the time Saturday rolls around. Bear Freshman QB Charlie Brewer took the most snaps against Texas....will he start at Kansas? When trying to expand my selection this week, I do remember D8 liking to fade freshman QB's almost as much or more than backing senior QBs. Baylor ranks 123rd in total defense. That fact alone is cause to fade them. Kansas ranks 114th in total defense but that's almost beside the point. This play is a complete fade of the 7th worst defense in D1 that is most likely starting a freshman QB on the road. I think it's safe to say D8 would have been all over the Jayhawks this Saturday. Lastly, Kansas offense put up 484yds against K. State who ranks 89th in total defense. Kansas, IMHO, might the best play on the board this Saturday! Go f*cking figure!

UVA - Senior QB....check! Total defense ranks 28th, Ga. Tech total defense ranks 26th....not checked but awfully darn close!! Turnover margin for UVA they are in the positive at 3 and rank 40th. Ga. Tech ranks 88th and is a -2......check that box! I think they might have an edge here emotionally-speaking as well. They need 1 more win to get bowl-eligible and, looking at their schedule, this game looks to be the easier of the 4 remaining games....that's not saying this is going to be easy by no means however! Especially how their run defense has been performing. But hopefully the slow-starts (VirginiaCavs wrote about) will help me get the 1st Half ML win!

Charlotte - I am going to take a couple shots with road dogs. Charlotte is first. Another complete fade of a freshman QB that has helped his team to a 124th ranking in TO margin (-11). Charlotte's total defense is 102nd. ODU's is 98th so they're virtually tied. TO margin for Charlotte is not much better at 113th (-7). The difference is a junior QB for Charlotte so we have a gap in QB experience that hopefully gets a win at the half. I just think this line is inflated and there is really no reason for it to be. The public seems to like ODU too I've seen consensus figures >65% at a few different sites.

Army - Army is the other road dog and is the only dog I found this week that checks off all 3 boxes......senior QB - check! Total defense in favor of Army - check! And TO margin in favor of Army - check!

Well, there you have it Gents. These 5 in addition to the other 1st Qtr plays/write-ups should make for plenty of excitement for me this weekend.

Cheers!!

:cheers3:
 
I'll probably be on UVA and Army in some capacity this week. Kansas, maybe, won't be the first time.

GT was -10.5 last year at home. This is supposed to be a better GT, but this is also a better UVA. Last year UVA held them to 111y at HT and led. UVA trailed by 7 and threw a pick-six to lose by 14. UVA held GT to their 3rd lowest rushing output in 2016...95 vs Clem, 119 vs BC and 199 vs UVA. UVA outgained them 409-321. And triple more FD 25-8. Doubt that happens again. But it bodes well for UVA D players and staff in an optimistic way facing them again.
 
Army is 6-2, their best record entering the Air Force game since 1996. 1996 was the last time Army won the Commander-in-Chief trophy. Army snapped the Navy streak last year. Seniors on this team are 0-fer against AF.

Army is 3-23 at Air Force. AF has won 26 of the last 30. AF has outscored Army 74-21 the last 3 years.

Will this year be different?
 
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