Week 10 ML Dog Discussion

Not sure Wahoos should be a dog @ Wake.
Kentucky live dog again at home vs Jorga?
LSU @ night in Baton Rouge
 
I think FSU will have a tough time getting up for NC St, the Wolfpack look like a live dog to me
 
Hate to say it but cocks off biggest win in a while and now laying a touchdown is odd. I do think we could likely win that game but if anyone could fuck something up its us.
 
Upsets this year, if I counted these right:

Underdogs of .....number of upset winners
+6 to 10.5.....35x
+11 to 13.5....11x
+14 to 19.5 ....15x
+20 and up....6x



Best performers:
Wyoming with wins as +9, +6, +11.5, +15
North Texas with wins as +7, +11.5, +17.5


Teams with two upset wins dogged 6 pts and higher:
Arkansas, Army, Buffalo, Charlotte, North Carolina, Northwestern, South Alabama, Vanderbilt, Wake Forest
 
Good info s-k, thanks

Still early but looking at the following possible plays on spread and ML

Nebraska + 14/12
NC State + 6 1/2
Northwestern + 6
Navy + 3
SMU + 4
Georgia Southern +24
Long shot but something tells me Georgia Southern will be much more up for this game than Ole Miss
Like the points with BC not the ML as much
Same with Iowa State, better team than record or spread
 
I wonder sometimes, a team like Georgia Southern, they are 4-4, new coaching staff. The kids can see that it isn't working, the production, the results aren't there. Does there begin to be some complacency and just an 'oh well' among some of the players? You could say the same for Ole Miss, but I think it is magnified with a new coaching staff as most of the players were recruited by the other staff, they had success, they had expectations and do the players atleast privately resent what has happened and does it impact the preparation, effort and play? Some teams are bad with new coaching staffs and they keep playing hard and giving good effort, a team like Iowa St as example. But ISU had no expectations, they have no recent success they have come down from. So...I don't know. Nobody goes out there not wanting to perform there best from a pride standpoint alone and out of respect for your team mates, however the morale can't be good when you know you are worse off as a team than you were last year and things don't mean quite as much and what the new coaches are preaching isn't working. You have freshman QB playing over senior QB(s) and a change in philosophy that isn't leading to positive results.

The equalizer here vs Ole Miss is who knows where their heads are too. Anyway, it isn't something like when Monken took them to the Swamp or Fritz brought them into Athens. And the spread, 27, seems to be reflecting that as well. No doubt a better Ga Southern team would be lower here.
 
I'm still weighing the Saturday options.

Just off the cuff, I don't think you could completely rule out a Bowling Green win. After what we saw last week in the MAC, 4 upsets 3 of which were double digit. BG isn't very good, but NILL isn't either...sure 44-7 over Buffalo last week, but you know 2016 NIU team is 2-6 and played pretty even with 4-4 Ball St and 5-3 CMich. Won one and lost one. I would want to look into this, which will have to do soon as game is Tuesday, but certainly seems like decent value on the spread. Figure BG hung really tough with Toledo not that long ago. The Miami game threw a wet blanket on that "moral victory". I lost on BG vs Miami and there was a huge of a turning point in that game as I had seen. After Mia tied it 10-10, BG ran the KO back for TD, but holding called put BG at their own 3. Next play backwards pass to RB was dropped and fallen on in EZ for safety. Mia got the ball on KO and went down to score TD. That is a kick in the nuts! You lead 10-7, hold them to a FG, tied 10-10, run the opening KO back, all that adrenaline, yeah 17-10 now! But no, called back, still tied 10-10. Then what? Lateral in the EZ, we thought it was a forward pass? Now they lead 12-10, bullshit! Oh man, now we are down 19-10. Just like that. BG did answer although they never led again and it is tough to overcome those momentum swings when you aren't that good of a team to begin with. BG had more FD, more yards, better ypp, better 3rd down rate, but they lost 4 turnovers.

I also think that Akron could be considered too. Again, it is the MAC so kind of anything can happen. I wondered a couple weeks ago when BG gave Toledo such a good game if things were starting to hit a lull for the Rockets. Then they played Central Michigan and that game as just 3-0 at halftime. WTF? A Toledo game 3-0 (they won 31-17). And last week Ohio (who is not known for big plays) hit bunch of big plays and hung a bunch of yards on Toledo (best non-OT output vs IA teams by Bobcats) and Ohio scored 11 pts over their MAC O scoring average. Akron, up and down, up and down. Last home game Western Michigan waxed them and Toledo is right below WM in terms of MAC power teams so Toledo should wax as well? I'm not so sure. Woodson did not play QB vs WMich and the O is so much better with him in the lineup. Bad game by Zips last week up in Buffalo, arguably the worst they've played this year with Woodson. Got to figure Toledo is going to get their's and I like Akron to bounce back on O as well. I may be going to this game if World Series ends tomorrow. Like the points and might ML it. I thought I would like the over, but saw it at 71 and will pass on that. Both teams should move it and score, but 71 I don't know. Huge game for Akron if they want to win the East. They can win it with 2 conference losses, but a 3rd here vs Toledo probably ends those hopes.

I may go Iowa State with the points, but can not make a sane argument for an upset. I mean, it would be awesome, I would love it, but can't see it. ISU has played pretty well for spots or even large parts of entire games vs some Big XII teams, but Oklahoma is by far and away the best team they've played and they usually pound them. Hard to see it being different this year. It will take a herculean effort just for Cones to cover I think, I don't know what it would take for them to win. The reason I like them with the points 1) I like teams like them at home vs the 'big boys' - fun to root for 2) more importantly OU is piss poor on D and I think ISU can stay in the game from a pointspread perspective and 3) I want action in this game. Could go over I suppose, but would rather have action on a night home dog side vs Big XII Goliath getting 3 TDs.
 
Can still get +250 on TCU at Baylor. Seth Russell is ? - that is reason enough, if I'm a book, to not put up a number until I know for sure. If he's out, you've got a great price at +250 - even if he's in there - I still think I like TCU. Implied probability of +250 is 28.57% - I'd say they have a 1/3 or better shot to win. Baylor finally has to play real teams so prob a bit over valued at this point.
 
The ACC has a few that look tempting.

NC St +189
Pitt +146
GT +344
Virginia +145

Outside ACC

Idaho +189
Charlotte +713 longshot
ECU +270
 
Yes to Pitt.

And as booksbestfriend as stated, and others, Virginia. I like a little higher odds, such as Idaho and ECU.

Agree with CrimsonK on TCU and as CHSGTMD said about Northwestern both as considerations.

Liking Rutgers, Iowa with pts, not sure about the win. I want to say Marshall, but hard to have confidence in them at this point, but to see them getting 11 to ODU, man oh man. Kick them while they're down I guess, everyone else has.
 
Getting to know Idaho +190 at ULL.

Vandals are 4-4, .500 at this point of the season is the best they've been since 2010. Vs teams their own size they have been strong on the road, 3-0 ATS, 2-1 SU. Beat UNLV 33-30, ULM 34-31 and while they covered with :04 left on 4th down vs App St 19-37 (+21) they actually had pretty good success vs Appy. App D is tough, and they may have played some bend-don't-break D as they are a great Red Zone D. Still Idaho posted the 3rd best yardage against the Mountaineers 357 (5.9 ypp). And App St actually only had 375y in that game. By comparison the Vandals only gained 299 to App's 511 last year. App is not as explosive on O this year, but I think the game speaks to Idaho's improvement ovearll.

App only led 10-6 halftime. Each team kicked a couple short FGs in the first half. Second half Idaho drove to the 7 and 6 for FGs and kicked another from the 15 following a turnover. App St D is just nails in the RZ.

The Idaho D is improved this year. 2016-2015 numbers. PPG 35.9-45.1, Rush ypc 4.82-6.34, INTs gained 9 so far to 6 all of last year. Currently +1 turnover margin to -6 last year. They have allowed just 8 plays of 40+ so far, last year they allowed 26. It's not all rosy, completion % is up as is 3rd down conversion% D. They are young at LB with Sophs starting, although they have have prior year experience and are very veteran everywhere else on D with some really seasoned players on DL and DB.

The O has been good. 9 plays of 40+ (6 pass, 3 run) through 8 games...they had 9 all of 2015. Jr QB Linehan is in his 3rd full year starting (29 career starts) and ranks 6th career yardage and 3rd all-time in passing ypg. He threw for the 5th most yards in school history (476) vs NM St a few weeks ago. 2 of the receiving options were All-Sun Belt 2015 and there is some quality among the other targets as well. The 3 top receivers from last year have 285 career receptions plus there are two new contributors this year, a JUCO Onunwor is #3 with 31 rec and Frysinger has two 100y games. 5 solid receiving options to spread the ball around to.

The run game hasn't been quite a good as last year, although Duckworth has been able to hit a few big plays (512, 4.74, 64 ypg). They avg 132 rush ypg (boosted by Mont St and ULM games) and 241 passing ypg (329 passing ypg last 3 games).

4 of the 5 OL spots are in good hands with 3-4 years of experience at each position, those same 4 have started every game this season at the same position. 81 career starts coming into this year. At the QG (quick guard) they are trying to find the right guy switching between 3 players a Soph, rFr and tFr. Sacks per game has been decreasing year-to-year-to-year (2016 2.13 - 2015 2.42 - 2014 3.64).

One of their best players is found on special teams. Austin Rehkow is the all-time leader in both FG att, FG made and tie-1st FG 75.9%, currently 9th ncaa FG 90% made. Rehkow also punts and has the highest career avg net (46.6). Not often do we expect a K or P to be a key factor, but in what could/should be a close game, both field position and ability to nail important FGs may play a role in the outcome.

This Idaho team has alot to play for in their second to last season at the IA/FBS level. They have a 2-2 conference record and not only could make .500 bowl eligibility but perhaps a winning record! They have plenty of experience to go around in coach Paul Petrino's 4th season and clearly this is their best team since the Robb Akey 2009-2010 teams. They have played good on the road and relatively speaking showed pretty well vs one of the Sun Belt heavy-weights before their bye week.

I admit it is a little scary to take them with a short number and not much reward on the ML odds vs ULL, a team loaded with potential and talent, but have failed to meet their expectations, largely due to shortcomings at QB and offense production in general. I will let you evaluate ULL, also off a bye and also 2-2 in conference play, 3-4 overall.

Essentially I think Idaho is the better team and the perception of who ULL is likely has more to do with who they used to be.

If you are riding with the Vandals this week...best of luck to us!!
 
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ECU at +8.5/+270 is getting pretty interesting, but could be dicey.

Tulsa was +7 at Memphis last week and did control the action throughout the game (was often a 1 score game with Tulsa never trailing and pulled away as the second half wore on). The line here seems a bit inflated perhaps, but can understand the Golden Hurricane love.

Tulsa O is humming avg 560 ypg and 46 ppg over the last 5 games. They've run for over 300y 5x. with two RBs over 800y although Brewer DNP last week and QB Evans played well vs all teams not named Ohio St (60% 263 ypg with a 15-4 ratio other 7 games). On D they are allowing 457y and 35 ppg over that span.

Pirates did win as a 6 pt home dog vs NC St earlier showing some capability to pull an upset (although are 0-4 ATS on road this year, or 1-3/0-3-1 depending on your line at USF. Played better than some scores indicate due to damaging turnovers (did not lose a turnover for first time all year last week!). ECU has allowed 5 non offensive TDs this season, including TD "drives" of less than 25y following turnovers which arguably can be contributed as D scores.

ECU off their most complete game of the year vs a once solid defensive team home in UConn 41-3. UC D not quite what it was last year, they were allowing 26ppg coming into that one. It was the 3rd time UC has allowed over 40 this year.

UC not known for O, but ECU did hold them 75y below their average and 3 pts is the fewest pts allowed by ECU since 2008 (UC O avg 20 ppg prior 8 games).

The 19-31 ECU loss at Cincy is a bit of a head scratcher, and they have had quite a few games that they didn't get the result they deserved. Vs Cincy ECU did have 28-25 FD edge, better completion %, better 3rd down conv rate, better rushing ypc and only trailed total yardage 504-513. The difference, as it often has been with them is turnovers -3. They kicked a FG from the 8 after a 16 play drive, INT'd at the UC 7 and with the game just 19-24 EC fumbled at the UC 15. That game marked the 4th time this season that EC has outgained a team, or been nearly even in yardage, yet lost the game (3 of the 4 losses by double digits). They were -11 turnovers in those 4 games.

QB Nelson is 68% 297 ypg with a 15-6 ratio.

Former WR/QB James Summers is at RB and leads with 538 (5.17) and naturally he is used in alot of different ways (1 passing TD, 11 receptions), would be top 8 KO ret AAC if he had enough attempts).

WR Zay Jones not only has 114 receptions (21 more than anyone else ncaa), he also moved into #2 ncaa career receptions (355) and trails former Pirate Justin Hardy for the all-time lead. Jones has had double digit catches in all but 1 game this season for 1094y, but just 4 TDs. Jones has more receptions than the #2-5 on the team receivers combined! You't think a D could schem against a single player to minimze his impact, but AAC Ds are not known for their ability.

4 of the 5 ECU OL starters are the same as week 1, and 5 of 5 are the same as week#3 S Carolina game. The defensive depth chart is alot choppier, several different lineups and combinations of players. Tulsa has 4 OL started every game at their position this year and the other guy at RT has started 6 of 8 and Tulsa has alot of consistency in their D starting unit.

ECU doesn't do alot of things well on D, they have just 5 sacks on the year...4 of which came last week! Tulsa has registered 17 sacks (2.13pg). ECU does boost a better rush D, Tulsa a better pass D. Otherwise they have many similar statisical D numbers. Tulsa has allowed 19 sacks (2.38 pg)(14% per pass att), ECU 20 (2.5pg)(19% per pass att). FG kicking and punt game seems equal.


Of note and series history:

Pirates have won 30 of last 35 when scoring 30+. Tulsa is 11-2 under Montgomery when scoring 40+. Pirates have won the last 6 vs Tulsa. Tulsa hasn't been a great team the last 3 years. They didn't play in Tulsa good 2011 and 2012 years, but ECU did best the 10-3 Tulsa team in 2010 which I think was on a final play hailmary on a Sunday afternoon Labor Day Weekend in Greensboro. Last year a 3-2 Tulsa lost to a 3-3 ECU team 30-17 although Tulsa outgained them 463-382 (EC had 100y pick-six INT return - Tulsa +13.5 backdoor covered with :34 left). ECU has been favored the last 3 games in the series. An amazing stat, ECU has scored on D 3 straight vs Tulsa and 5 of the last 6 (+15 turnovers in that span). Kind of the exact opposite how ECU's 2016 season has played out...they will need luck similar to their series history.

It is a tough game to predict an upset in. You have to figure that Tulsa is going to have alot of success on O and score a bunch. If ECU can avoid the turnovers that have plagued them this year, they too should find success moving the ball and scoring. Should be high scoring (75.5) and seems like either the team with the ball last might win, or team that avoids mistakes or makes less of them will win. Hard to bet on ECU playing a clean game on turnovers since they are -9 on the year. Like ECU getting over a TD, but hard to lay much on the ML...Tulsa is just a bit better all around.

Any thoughts?
 
I personally have over in the tulsa game and think ECU is definitely a live dog. Got to watch them in person take the cocks through 523 yards but only 15 points due to 5 turnovers. Tulsa also has the offense that usually get them over the hump but I see the value in ECU
 
Yeah, sometimes I hate to iron a game out like that because I rather just trust my eye and my gut with a bit of knowledge how the games unfold with recaps and box scores. Seems like when I dig into it sometimes I overthink and get gun shy. I like ECU, Tulsa is just very hot.
 
That is true sk, Tulsa is not a team to overlook. I have only backed them once this season and it was against Fresno fading Lorenzo Ward with a spread team but they are playing miles better since then
 
s--k said:
Yes to Pitt.

And as booksbestfriend as stated, and others, Virginia. I like a little higher odds, such as Idaho and ECU.

Agree with CrimsonK on TCU and as CHSGTMD said about Northwestern both as considerations.

Liking Rutgers, Iowa with pts, not sure about the win. I want to say Marshall, but hard to have confidence in them at this point, but to see them getting 11 to ODU, man oh man. Kick them while they're down I guess, everyone else has.
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liking rutgers too. they spotted minnesota a 21-3 lead and then outscored them 29-13. minnesota outgained them by only 27 yards. rescigno was better than his stat line. was hurt on the first play of the 2h and severely hobbled the rest of the way. bye week should help him. i think he can be pretty good
 
I will be on Arky, Virginia & Pitt for sure.

Talk to me about : ( I have these on my radar)
Texas Tech
Purdue
Okie Lite
Iowa
Cincy
Florida Atl
 
UVA is in a big letdown spot. My money will be on Wake, which is the (slightly) better team to begin with.
 
Pitt now +4.5/170

ECU now +10/330

Kind of strange to see on both I think.
 
ProV1Colt said:
I will be on Arky, Virginia & Pitt for sure.

Talk to me about : ( I have these on my radar)
Texas Tech
Purdue
Okie Lite
Iowa
Cincy
Florida Atl
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Can't say I have strong feelings on any of those really.

A few ways Texas could've/should've lost last week to Baylor. I'd probably rather take Texas here though. Kind of a coin flip game isn't it? Texas running game figures to control much of the action.

Minnesota has a host of misleading finals in their favor against bad teams. Purdue plays even with PSU last week at halftime and then started turning the ball over like it's cool. The line definitely seems inflated, can Purdue win? Maybe. Their run D will have to play really well...something they have rarely done this year. So assuming they can't play good D, they will have to be able to trade points with Gophers, they might be able to do that, although they like to turn the ball over every game (-12 on the year). But Minny isn't that good I don't think.

I do like Oklahoma St, I probably prefer the FG for insurance however.

I like Iowa if getting over a TD, see it fell to 6.5. I think Iowa can win the game, not sure I'd want to bet on it though. PSU getting a ton of respect right now, which they've earned, I do feel it has gotten a little out of hand. They have improved alot and Iowa just always seems to leave you wanting more out of them when they play.

I have actually been trying to think of a way to take Cincy ML myself. I just keep being reminded of so many games they have sucked in this year, either for the entire game or one of the halves. A very disappointing and underwhelming team. Tubberville put up the white flag in the 4th qrt last year in Provo. BYU off a bye, third trip east of the Mississippi for them this year (2-0 ATS as dogs, 1 upset...the WVU game was heading towards a potential upset late in the 4th qrt).

Essentially no opinion at all on FAU-Rice.

Do you have any compelling opinions that might sway someone on the fence in those?
 
definitely a game UT can lose, but we finally run into a defense worse than ours and we haven't had problems scoring this year
 
Every time I look down the board and see Marshall +10/11 and +315 I just say wow.

We all know the kind of year Marshall has had. And while I think I know the kind of year ODU is having and own a over 5 win season total on them, I haven't watched one second of ODU football.

I look back at the CUSA Marshall games:

MU-14 at N Texas 21-38 (big line move up from 10' 24 hours prior to kickoff)
271 (3.87) to 458 (5.59) outgained...team 13y rushing, Litton 47% completions

MU-12 vs FAU 27-21
436 (5.38) - 456 (7.0) outgained...FAU's 7 ypp is their best this year

MU-8 vs Char 24-27 (huge line crash from 12' 24 hours prior to kickoff)
350 (5.0) - 387 (4.78) outgained...Marshall shut out in 2nd half...ODU beat Char 52-17 with a 481-354 ODU yard advantage.

MU+16 at S Miss 14-24
226 (3.83) - 474 (5.58) outgained....Herd 1 of 13 on 3rd down.
1-3 SU, 1-3 ATS

It is just kind of baffling.

They are off of perhaps their best defensive game of the year. Held SMiss 84y under their average and only allowed 10 pts entering the 4th qrt to SMiss team that was averaging 36 ppg this year.

Soph LB Frankie Hernandez is healthy, and it is a big deal. He played mostly special teams last year, but spring and fall camp pointed to a breakout season this year. Coming back from an injury he missed some games and was limited in others, he got his most playing time last week vs SMiss and potential the coaches saw in camp was realized; sack, 2 tfl, ran a screen pass down. 8 tackles. Stuff a RB once that led to a 3-and-out. One of the sacks led to a punt. By all accounts he is a true impact player.

“Last week he had his first true full week of practice and he got the most plays he’s played since he’s been here. Now, we’re trying to build on it.”
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“His motor never stops. He’s always around the ball.” Blake Keller, defensive lineman.

“He can run and he can accelerate. He is one of our fastest players in our program for the first 10 yards. He plays with a really good pad level and he’s really aggressive.” Adam Fuller, associate head coach and linebackers coach.

“He had a little bit of a knee deal there early on in camp and missed just about the entire camp, and he’s just now playing himself back into shape. He was missed.” Doc Holliday, head coach.
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“He brings excitement to the team,” said cornerback Rodney Allen. “By being hurt a couple of games, it really hurt us because that’s one of our impact players who gives his all and throws his body between anyone and anything.
“By him just showing a lot of energy, it made me feel I had to step my game up a level, because I knew he had my back.”
Is Hernandez the Herd’s next standout linebacker? Perhaps.
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You kind of grab at straws looking for upside with Marshall, but building off a strong D effort last week and with Hernandez looking to be a big time player now on that D, there is reason for some cautious optimism for the D. We'll see how that works out.

Now if the offense can only do something, anything! Their best OL Selby is out for the year after missing the last 2 and finally having season ending surgery. The running game is nonexistent and Litton is playing like a shell of his 2015 self. ODU has a pretty decent CUSA D. So can't assume this will be a "get healthy" opportunity vs a weak D. An elite O like WKU had their way with them, but Marshall O is not elite, not this year.

2015 MU-17' vs ODU 27-7 (current QB Washington DNP)
2014 MU-18 at ODU 56-14 (Frosh Lawry's first 100y game)

Tables are certainly turned this time around, and ODU likely wanting to get some payback but I can't help but think this is a close game for some reason. And I can't say I'd be surprised if Marshall wins. No tangible evidence can point to it maybe happening. Thundering Herd is a Whimpering Turd this year and ODU is taking the next step in their evolution. But perhaps it should be noted that as an underdog Marshall is 2-1 ATS. The lone loss was to Louisville when Litton DNP and the backup QB couldn't do shit. The 2 wins, well they came back to cover in games that the other team was up by a few scores.

I don't know, sometimes you just got to follow a hunch. I've said it before, if Herd wins and I am not on the ML I'd be more mad then if I played the ML and they lost. I can live with bets I lose better than bets that win, but I didn't take them.

What say you on Marshall - Old Dominion this week?
 
Let's take a peak at North Texas getting three scores at home to latech.

Latech on its face appears to be playing quality football but I also think they have played an easy schedule and quite frankly even played teams at opportune times during this stretch. The situation for the game appears to be a lazy one for latech in my opinion. They have their sights set on the cusa west title. They currently sit atop the West division leaderboard at 4-1, with usm at 3-1. Their remaining schedule is vs UTSA in their home finale and then the big game at southern mississippi. In other words, they can afford to drop this game ... the west title is going to come down to who wins in the last week of the year. Their last three games have been umass, fiu and rice who are a combined 6-20 and who, as a collective, are horrible defensively. Here they go on the road to play a team that is a little better than people think and who actually gives up less yards and less yards per play on defense than latech does. And this game is going to mean a lot more to north texas. They sit at 4-4 with at wky and home to usm before they finish up at utep to close the year. The game against usm will likely mean more to usm than this game will to latech in the event latech wins this game. In other words, this is the game they are most likely to sneak a win out in for a shot at bowl eligibility. North Texas has gotten fairly decent and consistent QB play outside of the florida game and I can forgive them for that game. Moreover, they have played very good pass defense (28th or so yards per game defense against the pass, 17th best in opponent passer rating .. both skewed slightly by having played army option) all year long which gives me hope they can slow down Taylor and Henderson a little bit. At home with motivation against a team that should not have motivation, defensive strength matches up to (or as well as could be expected, they could still get torched) the offensive strength of the opponent and if the conference is going to get a sixth bowl eligible team it has to be either this unt squad or utsa.

Just my kind of huge underdog. put a unit on the plus pts and sprinkled some 750 or so ml.
 
How about Tulane +550 at UCF? Why not?

This game was rescheduled from Oct 7th. Rescheduling may benefit Tulane more as UCF was off the blowout over FIU and the misleading, albeit, confidence building win at ECU two weeks prior.

Instead UCF comes in here scoring just 24 pts avg their last 3 games vs Houston, UConn and Temple. They let big leads slip away vs Houston and Temple, but did comeback to win vs UConn. Those 3 Ds better than what Tulane fields.

At one point in time I thought that Tulane D was a pretty strong unit, but they have allowed 85 the last 2 weeks, but that did come vs Tulsa and a sometimes decent SMU O. Facing the UCF O might be more to their liking.

UCF doesn't do anything exceptionally well on O. In AAC play: passing 55%, 205 ypg, 6.65 ypa, 5-5 TD-INT ratio: rushing 106.5 ypg, 2.8 ypc. They did rush for 217 at ECU (35 & 47y TD runs), so the last 3 games they just have 69 ypg and 2.12 ypc vs the likes of Houston, UConn and Temple (pretty solid to good rush Ds).

The UCF D is pretty decent, 140 ypg and 2.97 ypc, ECU only ran for 33y 1.03 so that aids the rush numbers. Passing D: 284 ypg, 56% 6.85 ypa, 6-7 TD-INT ratio, but Tulane doesn't figure to throw it much although Wave is off one of their better passing games vs SMU 13-26-164-2-1 (they're not very efficient passing).

Tulane run O seems to be getting better. In AAC play they avg 248 ypg and 5.28 ypc. The last two games vs Tulsa and SMU they have run for 582 and 6.08 ypc.

Tulane's run D for the year is only giving up 165 ypg, 3.96 ypc and that includes facing Navy (287) and Tulsa (330) who have shown and ability to run on just about anyone. Tulane can be had through the air, but have played some pretty good passing attacks in Memphis and Tulsa. For the year they allow 204 ypg, 55%, 7.4 ypa, 12-8 ratio.

Neither O is especially explosive, although Tulane appears to give up more big plays. Both convert under 30% of their 3rd downs (bottom 2 teams AAC 3rd down ranking). Although UCF is better at stoping opposing 3rd downs (32-42%). And UCF owns the better RZ D.

UCF is #1 AAC in sacks at 28, but that may not play too much of a role with Tulane only attempting 20 passes per game. Their #1 in TFL with 68 which is likely a bigger concern. Although Tulane D gets after it pretty good too with 21 sacks and 54 TFL. UCF is allowing 3 sacks per game (111th nationally) and 8.88 TFL (127th nationally). Tulane better in this regard with 2.13 sacks allowed per game (65th) 6 TFL allowed pg (71st).

UCF from last week:

UCF led 24-3, but Houston held them to just 29 second half yards enroute to a big comeback win scoring 28 straight. UCF also lost 4 second half TOs! Ward did throw 3 INTs and lost a fumble himself. Houston had 398-195 (4.6-3.0) total yard and 158-40 (3.2-1.2) rush yard edge. UCF converted just 14% 3rd down to 55% for Cougs

Tulane from last week:

Tulane led 31-21 in the 4th qrt before falling 31-35 after a final Tulane drive that saw them convert 4th down twice and had a shot at the EZ on the final play (INT). 439-391 yards in favor of Mustangs, Tulane rushed for 227 (4.9) and SMU passed for 302 (50%).

Allowing a comeback to Houston and to SMU aren't exactly the same thing ofcourse.

2 weeks ago Tulane was noncompetitive at highpowered Tulsa and UCF came back from a 0-13 deficit to score 24 of the final 27 at UConn.

3 weeks ago Tulane trailed just 7-13 at half before losing 14-24. Memphis had just a 399-313 yard edge. UCF was outgained 296-364 in allowing Temple to come back from a 25-7 lead.

Tulane has only lost 9 turnovers all year, good enough for top 20 nationally. They have +1.25 TO per game margin. UCF has lost 15 and gained 15 for a net 0 margin.

Is UCF that much better than Tulane? Doesn't seem like UCF does anything particularly well that will cause Tulane problems on either side of the ball. I guess UCF getting some more big plays or stopping Tulane more often on 3rd down would be the biggest concerns.

It's an important game for both in terms of bowl hopes, Tulane 3-5 and UCF 4-4 in the battle of first year head coaches. I can see a close game and if it is a close game seems like some generous odds for a Green Wave win.
 
clowncar said:
Let's take a peak at North Texas getting three scores at home to latech.

Latech on its face appears to be playing quality football but I also think they have played an easy schedule and quite frankly even played teams at opportune times during this stretch. The situation for the game appears to be a lazy one for latech in my opinion. They have their sights set on the cusa west title. They currently sit atop the West division leaderboard at 4-1, with usm at 3-1. Their remaining schedule is vs UTSA in their home finale and then the big game at southern mississippi. In other words, they can afford to drop this game ... the west title is going to come down to who wins in the last week of the year. Their last three games have been umass, fiu and rice who are a combined 6-20 and who, as a collective, are horrible defensively. Here they go on the road to play a team that is a little better than people think and who actually gives up less yards and less yards per play on defense than latech does. And this game is going to mean a lot more to north texas. They sit at 4-4 with at wky and home to usm before they finish up at utep to close the year. The game against usm will likely mean more to usm than this game will to latech in the event latech wins this game. In other words, this is the game they are most likely to sneak a win out in for a shot at bowl eligibility. North Texas has gotten fairly decent and consistent QB play outside of the florida game and I can forgive them for that game. Moreover, they have played very good pass defense (28th or so yards per game defense against the pass, 17th best in opponent passer rating .. both skewed slightly by having played army option) all year long which gives me hope they can slow down Taylor and Henderson a little bit. At home with motivation against a team that should not have motivation, defensive strength matches up to (or as well as could be expected, they could still get torched) the offensive strength of the opponent and if the conference is going to get a sixth bowl eligible team it has to be either this unt squad or utsa.

Just my kind of huge underdog. put a unit on the plus pts and sprinkled some 750 or so ml.
Click to expand...

:shake:

Good stuff. North Texas has been a nice surprise this year. They had almost 100 more yards last week in the loss at UTSA and -4 TOs, but they typically haven't been poor at turning it over. Go Mean Green!
 
s--k said:
Every time I look down the board and see Marshall +10/11 and +315 I just say wow.

We all know the kind of year Marshall has had. And while I think I know the kind of year ODU is having and own a over 5 win season total on them, I haven't watched one second of ODU football.

I look back at the CUSA Marshall games:

MU-14 at N Texas 21-38 (big line move up from 10' 24 hours prior to kickoff)
271 (3.87) to 458 (5.59) outgained...team 13y rushing, Litton 47% completions

MU-12 vs FAU 27-21
436 (5.38) - 456 (7.0) outgained...FAU's 7 ypp is their best this year

MU-8 vs Char 24-27 (huge line crash from 12' 24 hours prior to kickoff)
350 (5.0) - 387 (4.78) outgained...Marshall shut out in 2nd half...ODU beat Char 52-17 with a 481-354 ODU yard advantage.

MU+16 at S Miss 14-24
226 (3.83) - 474 (5.58) outgained....Herd 1 of 13 on 3rd down.
1-3 SU, 1-3 ATS

It is just kind of baffling.

They are off of perhaps their best defensive game of the year. Held SMiss 84y under their average and only allowed 10 pts entering the 4th qrt to SMiss team that was averaging 36 ppg this year.

Soph LB Frankie Hernandez is healthy, and it is a big deal. He played mostly special teams last year, but spring and fall camp pointed to a breakout season this year. Coming back from an injury he missed some games and was limited in others, he got his most playing time last week vs SMiss and potential the coaches saw in camp was realized; sack, 2 tfl, ran a screen pass down. 8 tackles. Stuff a RB once that led to a 3-and-out. One of the sacks led to a punt. By all accounts he is a true impact player.







You kind of grab at straws looking for upside with Marshall, but building off a strong D effort last week and with Hernandez looking to be a big time player now on that D, there is reason for some cautious optimism for the D. We'll see how that works out.

Now if the offense can only do something, anything! Their best OL Selby is out for the year after missing the last 2 and finally having season ending surgery. The running game is nonexistent and Litton is playing like a shell of his 2015 self. ODU has a pretty decent CUSA D. So can't assume this will be a "get healthy" opportunity vs a weak D. An elite O like WKU had their way with them, but Marshall O is not elite, not this year.

2015 MU-17' vs ODU 27-7 (current QB Washington DNP)
2014 MU-18 at ODU 56-14 (Frosh Lawry's first 100y game)

Tables are certainly turned this time around, and ODU likely wanting to get some payback but I can't help but think this is a close game for some reason. And I can't say I'd be surprised if Marshall wins. No tangible evidence can point to it maybe happening. Thundering Herd is a Whimpering Turd this year and ODU is taking the next step in their evolution. But perhaps it should be noted that as an underdog Marshall is 2-1 ATS. The lone loss was to Louisville when Litton DNP and the backup QB couldn't do shit. The 2 wins, well they came back to cover in games that the other team was up by a few scores.

I don't know, sometimes you just got to follow a hunch. I've said it before, if Herd wins and I am not on the ML I'd be more mad then if I played the ML and they lost. I can live with bets I lose better than bets that win, but I didn't take them.

What say you on Marshall - Old Dominion this week?
Click to expand...
Big revenge game here for ODU as Marshall has been very hard on them in the past. I live in the area and can share that this is a big game around these parts. ODU is ready for this one. IMHO, if you are not willing to lay the pts. then stay away.

:shake2:
 
Last edited:
Line came up and I added the extra game. Tennessee Tech +44. The Vol fade marches onward. No ML but just what if.....
 
CrimsonK said:
Line came up and I added the extra game. Tennessee Tech +44. The Vol fade marches onward. No ML but just what if.....
Click to expand...
Haha that would be great. Drunkenly saying "Hey it could happen" and then hitting the +550 with the Cocks last week was funny
 
5/1 are awesome hits - nice one.

I didn't cap the game at all and don't follow the conf closely but just watching the screen all week and going off gut I would think Utah State +160 or so may be a good one and fading Wyoming after the big win.
 
M.W. said:
I'm going to take a flyer on SJSU.
Click to expand...
I want to give you some props on that. All I was going to take was the over then thought, hell if he thinks they can win probably a good play with the pts!~

JROCK1966 said:
Big revenge game here for ODU as Marshall has been very hard on them in the past. I live in the area and can share that this is a big game around these parts. ODU is ready for this one. IMHO, if you are not willing to lay the pts. then stay away.

:shake2:
Click to expand...

That would be the smart thing to do!

wiseplayer said:
Maybe the worst defensive team in the history of NCAA
Click to expand...
I really thought there were positive signs of life for BG and NIU has improved, not that much, they still have some issues as well. But yeah, rough one to expect to win vs a decent running team, BG doesn't like that kind of football.
CrimsonK said:
5/1 are awesome hits - nice one.

I didn't cap the game at all and don't follow the conf closely but just watching the screen all week and going off gut I would think Utah State +160 or so may be a good one and fading Wyoming after the big win.
Click to expand...

Wyoming has been so good to me this year, I'm going to keep riding them. 3-1-1 ATS, 3-0 SU ML wins. Utah St isn't the same team we used to know and love. Aggies definitely need this game, D could make it hard on WYO O, make them earn it, grind for it. Thing for Wyoming, sure off that big big huge win for them, but they are in position to win the conference now, so they have alot to play for. The letdown spot would be magnified if they were just a middle pack MWC team, but 4-0 in league play...that may be enough to keep the focused on the bigger prize.
 
s--k said:

Wyoming has been so good to me this year, I'm going to keep riding them. 3-1-1 ATS, 3-0 SU ML wins. Utah St isn't the same team we used to know and love. Aggies definitely need this game, D could make it hard on WYO O, make them earn it, grind for it. Thing for Wyoming, sure off that big big huge win for them, but they are in position to win the conference now, so they have alot to play for. The letdown spot would be magnified if they were just a middle pack MWC team, but 4-0 in league play...that may be enough to keep the focused on the bigger prize.
Click to expand...
Wild to think that Wyoming is high elevation even for Utah St.
 
Another week of great posts and info, lets get more winners today

Have narrowed it down to the following and as usual most $ on points, smaller on ML, a few long shot ML parlays for fun

SMU +3 and +130

Northwestern +6 and +195

Nebraska +17 and +520

Going to tail S-K on the Tulane and North Texas plays
May have more later
Best of luck to all
 
N Tex is a VK play.

I went:
Pitt 50 for 95
ECU 50 for 162
Purdue 10 for 70
TCU 10 for 23
Tulane 20 for 110
NTex 10 for 70
Mar 20 for 57

May tweak, but that is the basic theme. Just added more to Idaho with the pts rather than ML.
 
Wow. Crushing result in the Tulane game. Back-to-back 3rd qrt possessions UCF gets 30y fumble ret TD and then a 30y INT ret TD. Then in the 4th with Tulane still covering and driving, UCF gets 86y INT ret TD! Game was 7-6 halftime (Tulane xpt no good) and 30-6 as a I type. Tulane only lost 9 turnovers all year, lost 5 tonight. 21 pts for UCF on D.
 
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