ML Dogs Week 4

UNC @ Pitt: Think I might have a found a possibly live home dog for this weekend. I have a 5-2 SU & 5-2 ATS revenge angle (see pic 1 below.) One of the losses was South Carolina to my own Wildcats. I remember that game and my Cats were jacked to go play that one as there was some serious trash talk going on in the off-season leading up to that game. Are the Heels really all that jacked to go play at Pitt? Maybe @carolinablue can add some color commentary to that question. The other loss was in that heated Iowa State/Iowa in-state rivalry which doesn't apply here. Coach Mack Brown is 8-1 SU however only 1-7-1 ATS (see pic 2 below) in this situation which is having won the previous meeting and coming off a home win where they won ATS. Only 1 of those SU wins did not come from his time at Texas. That 1-7-1 ATS angle is a strong one indicating this week is a good time to fade a Mack Brown coached team. Meanwhile Pat Narduzzi coming off of 2 straight losses and as a home dog has gone 2-1 SU & 2-1 ATS (see pic 3 below)....his only loss was to the 2020 Notre Dame squad which lost twice that season only to Clemson & Alabama. I'll have some of my lunch money this week on Pitt ML.

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uncpitt2.jpg

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JROCK1966 said:
UNC @ Pitt: Think I might have a found a possibly live home dog for this weekend. I have a 5-2 SU & 5-2 ATS revenge angle (see pic 1 below.) One of the losses was South Carolina to my own Wildcats. I remember that game and my Cats were jacked to go play that one as there was some serious trash talk going on in the off-season leading up to that game. Are the Heels really all that jacked to go play at Pitt? Maybe @carolinablue can add some color commentary to that question. The other loss was in that heated Iowa State/Iowa in-state rivalry which doesn't apply here. Coach Mack Brown is 8-1 SU however only 1-7-1 ATS (see pic 2 below) in this situation which is having won the previous meeting and coming off a home win where they won ATS. Only 1 of those SU wins did not come from his time at Texas. That 1-7-1 ATS angle is a strong one indicating this week is a good time to fade a Mack Brown coached team. Meanwhile Pat Narduzzi coming off of 2 straight losses and as a home dog has gone 2-1 SU & 2-1 ATS (see pic 3 below)....his only loss was to the 2020 Notre Dame squad which lost twice that season only to Clemson & Alabama. I'll have some of my lunch money this week on Pitt ML.

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Pitt is #2 in the country in passing yards allowed....they should match up well against Drake Maye.

:popcorn:
 
Considering for this week:

Pitt
Ole Miss
Arkansas State
Baylor 1st Half

Lots of Friday night home conference dogs this week as well!!
 
JROCK1966 said:
Jaxson Dart #6 in the country at passing efficiency with a 202 rating....no Bama QB is even making the cut LOL. Scoring defense for Bama is 14ppg and for Ole Miss 16ppg........somebody please try and talk me out of backing Ole Miss ML.
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I won't try to talk you out of Ole Miss, but I think the under may be the best play
 
JROCK1966 said:
Jaxson Dart #6 in the country at passing efficiency with a 202 rating....no Bama QB is even making the cut LOL. Scoring defense for Bama is 14ppg and for Ole Miss 16ppg........somebody please try and talk me out of backing Ole Miss ML.
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I definitely think it’s worth a shot. Just counterpoint for my own sake. Tulane hung with em pretty good with a back up QB( that in reality might be as good as what Bama appears to have as of now). But Ole Miss players/staff probably feeling pretty good right now on their chances…
 
twinkie13 said:
I definitely think it’s worth a shot. Just counterpoint for my own sake. Tulane hung with em pretty good with a back up QB( that in reality might be as good as what Bama appears to have as of now). But Ole Miss players/staff probably feeling pretty good right now on their chances…
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Ole Miss also was in a one score game with Georgia Tech mid 4th quarter, so the score is a little deceiving there too. Bottom line, if Alabama can play like they did against MTSU and the first 3 quarters against Texas, I think they win and probably cover. if the defense implodes like it did against Texas in the 4th quarter, and the offense does whatever that was against USF, they'll lose
 
And not t turn this into the SEC thread, but you have to think Alabama has some insight into how the Ole Miss defense will scheme and adjust based on Golding. And the things we never defended well when Pete was at Alabama are the things that Milroe should be able to do really well. The question is if Rees will actually try to call that kind of game
 
JROCK1966 said:
Pitt is #2 in the country in passing yards allowed....they should match up well against Drake Maye.

:popcorn:
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Pitt is so bad my dude. I havnt looked at this game at all, honestly didn’t know they were playing till coming in here, lol. I just dunno if I can get behind pitt vs anyone right now. That offense is painful to the eyes to watch! Not sure how they score as I think heels d is somewhat better this year?
 
I don’t make a habit of going against Day’s osu squad in regular season until the big game but I think Irish as home dogs has to be the side. Irish finally have a qb, not only a qb but one I trust significantly more than McCord for osu! Now Irish has a way to move the sticks to continue leaning on teams at the Los plus they can let Hartman loose if they need points!! I think Irish can win at the Los and I’ll take Hartman to run my offense over McCord all day! Obviously I’m scared of the osu weapons but I think Irish finally have what they been missing to win against the big boys.
 
2daBank said:
Pitt is so bad my dude. I havnt looked at this game at all, honestly didn’t know they were playing till coming in here, lol. I just dunno if I can get behind pitt vs anyone right now. That offense is painful to the eyes to watch! Not sure how they score as I think heels d is somewhat better this year?
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There’s a good chance UNC will play like crap….this is a good spot to fade Mack Brown.
 
JROCK1966 said:
There’s a good chance UNC will play like crap….this is a good spot to fade Mack Brown.
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I def buy that part, I have a terrible time trying to trust that team. I just have so much disdain for Narduzzi and how he has torpedoed this program since the min Pickett left I have a very tough time backing them. The offense is so so so bad, nobody w talent outside running backs maybe will ever go there, the only person they can get to play qb hasn’t been the same since he hurt his arm a few years back at bc! I certainly understand fading heels side it just the backing pitt part I’m struggling with. I don’t think their pass d nearly as good the rating either, Cincy didn’t have to throw cause they ran all over them, wvu can’t throw, and they played Wofford. I’m not sure they can stop heels run game but if they do i think it opens up things for maye. It would take a epically bad performance to get beat by this team imo. I don’t see myself laying the points so I hope it works out for you but I just don’t think I can back pitt.
 
booksbestfriend said:
Games I'll be looking into

Purdue
SMU
Tulsa
WKU
Ole Miss
UTSA w/ Frank
Wash ST
ND
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Ol miss is def interesting, seems crazy to think bama will lose again at home, I’m not sure I can wrap my head around that! Then again the way they have looked is nothing like the bama we used to.

I guess my problem is more with ol miss, I havnt been all that impressed w them lately, they have not been able to get Judkins off either the last 2 weeks against tulane then Gtech, bama may be struggling but one thing I’m fairly confident in is you not gonna line up and beat them running the ball! Especially if you struggled doing it against tulane, dart did go off running vs Gtech but it more concerning to me Judkins been bottled up, I guess it safe to assume gtech might have sold out on judkins why dart had a crazy rushing day? You wouldn’t expect bama to have to do that tho: just not sure the Rebs can throw the ball down the field which was texas path to success. Dart has great yards per completion but I dunno how much of that is wide open guys downfield and/or short passes that get lot of yac? Again not something I’d expect either happening against bama. Can Dart and his wrs make plays down the field? Last year ol miss ran it damn near 50x but for under 4ypc, prior year less than 3yoc, Even w bama having issues im just not sure this Rebs offense is built in a way to have success against bama d?
 
2daBank said:
Ol miss is def interesting, seems crazy to think bama will lose again at home, I’m not sure I can wrap my head around that! Then again the way they have looked is nothing like the bama we used to.

I guess my problem is more with ol miss, I havnt been all that impressed w them lately, they have not been able to get Judkins off either the last 2 weeks against tulane then Gtech, bama may be struggling but one thing I’m fairly confident in is you not gonna line up and beat them running the ball! Especially if you struggled doing it against tulane, dart did go off running vs Gtech but it more concerning to me Judkins been bottled up, I guess it safe to assume gtech might have sold out on judkins why dart had a crazy rushing day? You wouldn’t expect bama to have to do that tho: just not sure the Rebs can throw the ball down the field which was texas path to success. Dart has great yards per completion but I dunno how much of that is wide open guys downfield and/or short passes that get lot of yac? Again not something I’d expect either happening against bama. Can Dart and his wrs make plays down the field? Last year ol miss ran it damn near 50x but for under 4ypc, prior year less than 3yoc, Even w bama having issues im just not sure this Rebs offense is built in a way to have success against bama d?
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Is this the year where we Fade Alabama?
They were such money machines last few years in the 1Q and 1H……
 
number2 said:
Is this the year where we Fade Alabama?
They were such money machines last few years in the 1Q and 1H……
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It could be I guess but I still need the right matchup and just not sure I buy the ol miss I been watching being it. Honestly if you made me bet this game Id probably bet bama, or maybe under (but I hate ncaa unders!!), just dunno if I can find the path to ol miss scoring?

Bama going back to Milroe at qb correct? I wouldn’t want any part those other guys and think I would absolutely play under if it was anyone but him at qb. I kinda expect Milroe to play well but again it mostly I dunno I trust dart to beat bama throwing the ball which I think what it will take. As I mentioned above ol miss has struggled to get Judkins off against way lessor defenses than bama! I still think you have to have a really good qb/passing attack to score against bama d. Not sure if Dart or ol miss capable of that?
 
How much different is Arkansas d from last year? I know they just lost to byu but byu scored 35 on them last year, ark just didn’t hang 50+ like they did in last years game. I know ark caught lsu in a very tough spot last year at home and just after the bama upset, maybe that played a huge part but I know ark d was a nightmare for Daniels as they were all over him the entire game! Arkansas didn’t have Jefferson playing qb that game or I assume they probably would have won. I don’t think they going into lsu at night and winning but 17.5 feels pretty damn steep considering they had a very good plan to contain Daniels last year. Just letting byu score 38 doesn’t breed a ton of confidence but it kinda tough to see how they got there looking at the box score. Byu yardage totals don’t look like a team who scored 38 so I’m wondering if this might be a good spot to take a ton of points??
 
Air Force @ San Jose State: Coach Brent Brennan is 4-2 SU & 6-0 ATS on Fridays. 3-1 SU & 4-0 ATS at home on Fridays. Coach Troy Calhoun is 3-1 SU but 0-4 ATS as a road fav on Fridays. See below. This game is the lowest line for Calhoun in this situation.

:popcorn:

bbrennan.jpg

troycalhoun.jpg
 
Boise State @ San Diego St: Brady Hoke is 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS at home on Fridays. His lone loss was when he was at his largest line as a fav. Andy Avalos, in his short career, is 1-2 SU & 0-2-1 ATS. His lone SU win was as a large -17pt fav.

:popcorn:

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I would play air force on friday night. San Jose State is gassed, guys...just getting back from a LONG road trip to Toledo, Ohio, and now a short week to try to prepare for the triple option. these conference foes havent faced off since 2020 so at this point seeing the option keys on D and playing assignment football will not be familiar for the Spartans. 1-3 Jose has not looked great this season, getting blown out against USC (backdoor cover) and crushed at home against Oregon State, and then ran out of gas last week after being up 17-7 and then punt, punt, INT, punt, downs, punt. weak effort. Now they have a WR and TE out, and AF can key in on Nash. Here is an interesting fact, with all of the mountain west football Chevon Cordeiero has played in his career, he has NEVER played against AF...
 
steponaduck said:
I would play air force on friday night. San Jose State is gassed, guys...just getting back from a LONG road trip to Toledo, Ohio, and now a short week to try to prepare for the triple option. these conference foes havent faced off since 2020 so at this point seeing the option keys on D and playing assignment football will not be familiar for the Spartans. 1-3 Jose has not looked great this season, getting blown out against USC (backdoor cover) and crushed at home against Oregon State, and then ran out of gas last week after being up 17-7 and then punt, punt, INT, punt, downs, punt. weak effort. Now they have a WR and TE out, and AF can key in on Nash. Here is an interesting fact, with all of the mountain west football Chevon Cordeiero has played in his career, he has NEVER played against AF...
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I am on AF Thinking about a St Jose St TT Under...if you have any thoughts
 
Arky @ LSU: found a nice correlation between a coaches and a revenge angle.

See pic 1....Brian Kelly as a home fav coming off a road win (where 1) covered ats >10pts. and 2) playing a team he beat on the road the year before) is 4-0 SU but only 1-3 ATS. Look closely at the top two lines and you'll see the he went 2-2 SU in ML plays in 1st Qtr & 1st Half.

See pic 2....home favs that won the previous season and currently matched with turnover margin are 4-0 SU and 0-3-1 ATS overall. But take a look at the 1st Qtr & 1st Half scores. The fav is 1-2-1 SU in 1st Qtr and 1-3 SU in the 1st half. Like I said earlier...these are nice correlations for 1st Qtr and 1st Half ML plays on Arkansas. The odds for these two ML plays with a line at -17.5 make these gambles worth a shot for me. Stay away from full game ML though and good luck in what you decide!


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JROCK1966 said:
UNC @ Pitt: Think I might have a found a possibly live home dog for this weekend. I have a 5-2 SU & 5-2 ATS revenge angle (see pic 1 below.) One of the losses was South Carolina to my own Wildcats. I remember that game and my Cats were jacked to go play that one as there was some serious trash talk going on in the off-season leading up to that game. Are the Heels really all that jacked to go play at Pitt? Maybe @carolinablue can add some color commentary to that question. The other loss was in that heated Iowa State/Iowa in-state rivalry which doesn't apply here. Coach Mack Brown is 8-1 SU however only 1-7-1 ATS (see pic 2 below) in this situation which is having won the previous meeting and coming off a home win where they won ATS. Only 1 of those SU wins did not come from his time at Texas. That 1-7-1 ATS angle is a strong one indicating this week is a good time to fade a Mack Brown coached team. Meanwhile Pat Narduzzi coming off of 2 straight losses and as a home dog has gone 2-1 SU & 2-1 ATS (see pic 3 below)....his only loss was to the 2020 Notre Dame squad which lost twice that season only to Clemson & Alabama. I'll have some of my lunch money this week on Pitt ML.

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Not worried at all about motivation given that Pitt beat us the last couple times we played em there, coupled with the fact that we have only gone 4-0 once in the 40 years, plus this is the first conference game of the season.

Definitely don’t see lack of motivation being an issue as this team has a chip (get it) on it’s shoulder as the doubters though we would come out flat against South Carolina in the opener and they also thought we wouldn’t be able handle Minny’s physicality, but we handled business on both counts.

I expect more of the same this weekend. Won’t be easy, but I think we get it done by at least 6-8 points minimum, but would love to see us get up early and play a complete game across all facets, leading to a blowout win heading into the bye week.
 
UCLA
Cincy
UTSA

My contest picks. Won't be shocked if all 3 win. Obviously UTSA might be short handed but I'm counting on Harris to play and that game has no business being 21 points
 
KJ said:
UCLA
Cincy
UTSA

My contest picks. Won't be shocked if all 3 win. Obviously UTSA might be short handed but I'm counting on Harris to play and that game has no business being 21 points
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UCLA may win if Rising doesn't play. That being said, SLC hasn't been too kind to the bears.

I like sdsu as well. Boise isn't your grandmother's Boise.
 
Two Utes said:
UCLA may win if Rising doesn't play. That being said, SLC hasn't been too kind to the bears.

I like sdsu as well. Boise isn't your grandmother's Boise.
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I actually think UCLA is built for road games

Whole Saturday is full of incredible games, attention span is going to be in for a treat. Prolly need to sleep on a bag of ice Sat night
 
KJ said:
I actually think UCLA is built for road games

Whole Saturday is full of incredible games, attention span is going to be in for a treat. Prolly need to sleep on a bag of ice Sat night
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They may be, we shall see.
 
Two Utes said:
They may be, we shall see.
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Crazy tangent

There is a thread on Notre Dame v USC

Utah's run game is way more potent than ND in my book. I'm not sure USC will even get a stop in that game

Week after South Bend only increases my interest. Utes will have the Duck lookahead but I think they'll be focused on USC. It's insane how good the Pac is this season on paper, what a way to go out
 
JROCK1966 said:
It’s one of only two games this week where the dog has both the better QB and better scoring defense. A shoutout to @dilaudid8

:shake:
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What stat are you using to compare QBs? I'm not sure UCLA have the better QB but it's more a matter of discretion for me.
 
carolinablue said:
Not worried at all about motivation given that Pitt beat us the last couple times we played em there, coupled with the fact that we have only gone 4-0 once in the 40 years, plus this is the first conference game of the season.

Definitely don’t see lack of motivation being an issue as this team has a chip (get it) on it’s shoulder as the doubters though we would come out flat against South Carolina in the opener and they also thought we wouldn’t be able handle Minny’s physicality, but we handled business on both counts.

I expect more of the same this weekend. Won’t be easy, but I think we get it done by at least 6-8 points minimum, but would love to see us get up early and play a complete game across all facets, leading to a blowout win heading into the bye week.
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I still don’t trust ya’ll but pitt shouldn’t sniff their 20.5 team total. This ain’t the week even if ya’ll are flat, should have ample time to get the offense cranked up cause I’ve seen high school teams that could contain pitt offense!
 
KJ said:
UCLA
Cincy
UTSA

My contest picks. Won't be shocked if all 3 win. Obviously UTSA might be short handed but I'm counting on Harris to play and that game has no business being 21 points
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I'm seeing a couple trends that back your Cincy pick. Venables is 0-2 SU and 0-2 ATS in road games vs. teams with a winning record. Not much I know but it is something. In addition, I have a bounceback trend active on Cincy this week that has a 3-2 SU and 4-1 ATS records.....I've said this before >50% odds SU is not bad when trying to pick SU dog winners.

:popcorn:
 
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JROCK1966 said:
I'm seeing a couple trends that back your Cincy pick. Venables is 0-2 SU and 0-2 ATS in road games vs. teams with a winning record. Not much I know but it is something. In addition, I have a bounceback trend active on Cincy this week that has a 3-2 SU and 4-1 ATS records.....I've said this before >50% odds SU is not bad when trying to pick SU dog winners.

:popcorn:
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I just think Ou is a total unknown right now, which is probably a better time to take a crack w a sizable dog, obviously you gotta think there more room for variance compared to some established teams we expect a certain level from.

I have a suspicion Ou might be back to top 10 level team but it purely a guess at this point. The only thing I would say bout this game is iF anyone was to take a shot a bearcats ml please for the love of god of bearcats come out and get a nice lead (up a few scores) don’t start counting your money, try and get a nice live line on Sooners so you get paid no matter how it plays out!! You can not trust a Scott Satterfield team to hold a lead no matter how good they have looked or how sizable it is!! Eventually a dc/defensive HC, whoever running the d, is gonna figure his offense out and for some reason Satterfield has no ability to adjust, doesn’t have some kind of variation off what he been doing that should work, he just keeps running the same crap no matter what!! His offenses been known to go into a serious lull w no ability to even kill clock to help out his defense! It happened time and time again while he was at ville and it damn near happened vs pitt this year!!! He gave pitt at least 3 possessions with a chance to take the lead, just fortunate pitt offense is so bad!!! Most teams score points when you give them one possession after another in the 4th!!
 
M.W. said:
Arkansas
Oklahoma State
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I’ve mentioned I think 17.5 is absolutely to much to lay with lsu here but I don’t think they will ever be in real danger of losing. It’s unfortunate the hogs have a new DC as their game plan on Daniels was very good last year. They didn’t have Jefferson in that game tho, that will help the offense tremendously as i think he be able to run around and make some plays, just think lsu will score a whole lot more this time as their passing attack is becoming more and more dangerous imo.
 
Headed out tomorrow to go on my first ever cruise tomorrow so I had to put my plays in tonight. Won't be around any next week so hoping I win some cash this Saturday! Played a few parlays....

2, 3, & 4-teamer RR:
Arkansas State Red Wolves +191
Pittsburgh Panthers +240
Arkansas Razorbacks +275 1st quarter
Cincinnati Bearcats +440

2, 3, & 4-teamer RR:
Arkansas State Red Wolves +191
Pittsburgh Panthers +240
Arkansas Razorbacks +430 1st half
Cincinnati Bearcats +440

4, 5, 6, & 7-teamer RR:
San Diego State Aztecs +218
Arkansas State Red Wolves +216
Pittsburgh Panthers +248
Ole Miss Rebels +206
Arkansas Razorbacks +440 1st half
San Jose State Spartans +163
UCLA Bruins +160

4, 5, 6, & 7-teamer RR:
San Diego State Aztecs +218
Arkansas State Red Wolves +216
Pittsburgh Panthers +248
Ole Miss Rebels +206
Arkansas Razorbacks +275 1st quarter
San Jose State Spartans +163
UCLA Bruins +160

I know these aren't ML dogs but what the hell...Straight 6-teamer with:

Arkansas State Red Wolves (+6)
UCLA Bruins (+6)
Minnesota Golden Gophers (-11.5)
Arkansas Razorbacks (+17.5)
Pittsburgh Panthers (+7.5)
Florida Gators (-28)

BOLTA!!

:pray:
 
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