Week 10 Discussion Thread

VirginiaCavs

VirginiaCavs

CTG Super Moderator
Staff member
Nov 9 Thu 2023

07:15 PM
113Carolina Panthers+3
+100		O 40½
-110
114Chicago Bears

+1 Markets		-3
-120		U 40½
-110
Nov 12 Sun 2023

08:30 AM
241Indianapolis Colts-1½
-107		O 43½
-110
242New England Patriots+1 Markets+1½
-113		U 43½
-110
12:00 PM
243Cleveland Browns+6
-118		O 38½
-105
244Baltimore Ravens+1 Markets-6
-102		U 38½
-115
12:00 PM
247San Francisco 49ers-2½
-120		O 44½
-110
248Jacksonville Jaguars+1 Markets+2½
+100		U 44½
-110
12:00 PM
249New Orleans Saints-2½
-115		O 40½
-110
250Minnesota Vikings+1 Markets+2½
-105		U 40½
-110
12:00 PM
251Green Bay Packers+3
+102		O 37
-110
252Pittsburgh Steelers+1 Markets-3
-122		U 37
-110
12:00 PM
253Tennessee Titans+1
-115		O 39
-110
254Tampa Bay Buccaneers+1 Markets-1
-105		U 39
-110
03:05 PM
257Detroit Lions-1
-118		O 49½
-110
258Los Angeles Chargers+1 Markets+1
-102		U 49½
-110
03:25 PM
259New York Giants+16½
-109		O 38½
-110
260Dallas Cowboys+1 Markets-16½
-111		U 38½
-110
03:25 PM
261Washington Commanders+6
-104		O 44
-108
262Seattle Seahawks+1 Markets-6
-116		U 44
-112
07:20 PM
263New York Jets-2
-113		O 36½
-110
264Las Vegas Raiders+1 Markets+2
-107		U 36½
-110
 
As we noted last week, this could be an all-time, awful slate of games.

My goodness, start drinking early!
 
Initially, really like Pittsburgh and Minnesota. Both defenses should give the opposing quarterback fits. Tomlin is going to get every win he can as they have some tough sledding ahead. This game should not be a pick on a neutral site IMO.
 
Seeing Indy only -1 right now. Granted Bryce accounted for more Indy points than anyone yesterday but man the Pats suck. Line should be 3.5 & even at that would have to lay it.
 
warming up to Detroit quite a bit. Chargers offense does not look right to me. Hasn’t all season outside of 1 or 2 games. Chargers defense looked good last night, but against a depleted o line.
 
A few notes from last week.

There were 4 prime time games ( I will include the game in Germany as a prime game as no other games were playing)

All 4 favorites covered those games last week.

Prime time games on Thursday SNF and Monday nights Favorites are 18-9 ATS ( their have been a few pushes but I gave those pushes cover wins for the favorite because the favorite won the game.

=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-

The Bears are off back to back lines of +10 now minus -3.5 no team has covered as favorites in this situation (0-8 ATS) but the Thursday night game is very difficult for road Dogs. Carolina is so bad anyways, if they play bad it wont be because of A Thursday game.

I wont bet the Bears but I will chance an in game line if the Panthers stay competitive and the line is favorable.

-==-=--=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=

KillerSports.com

killersports.com killersports.com
 
Last edited:
spottie2935 said:
A few notes from last week.

There were 4 prime time games ( I will include the game in Germany as a prime game as no other games were playing)

All 4 favorites covered those games last week.

Prime time games on Thursday SNF and Monday nights Favorites are 18-9 ATS ( their have been a few pushes but I gave those pushes cover wins for the favorite because the favorite won the game.

=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-

The Bears are off back to back lines of +10 now minus -3.5 no team has covered as favorites in this situation (0-8 ATS) but the Thursday night game is very difficult for road Dogs. Carolina is so bad anyways, if they play bad it wont be because of A Thursday game.

I wont bet the Bears but I will chance an in game line if the Panthers stay competitive and the line is favorable.

-==-=--=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=
Click to expand...
The Saints are historically bad with these kinds of QBs. Talking Bagent. Shit like giving Johnny Manziel an NFL and I could go on. RG3’s first win. But yet give a guy like Brady fits. Just adding this on to the observation on Bears.
 
twinkie13 said:
The Saints as road favorites is kinda puzzling…
Click to expand...
Minny is in the bottom 5 in rushing yards a game. Teams that cant rush are bad bets. Falcons rank #9 is Rush yds average /per game.

Rushing Defense the Falcons and Vikings are very even on opponents rushing yards a game. The factor then becomes schedule and who has faced the more premium rushing teams.

Since the line is so low A win is all that is needed (most likely) that places a premium on the Falcons if they can execute to their season average and out rush the Vikings.

The Bears have great rush defense stats ranking in the top 5. The problem is their defense is #27th in passing yards average per game. f their opponent can throw its not good for the Bears. Carolina ranks 26th in offensive passing yards average per game.

The Bears lack of passing Defense is killing their record. They give up too many points. Their offense also puts more pressure on their Defense. I want to fade the Bears, but we are then taking the Panthers. Yikes.

-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-

forget all the rushing stats and focus on lines.

Favorites of -1 to -4 that will be big dogs the following week are terrible bets around 35% ATS (Bears are at Lions next week )
 
Last edited:
The Colts are 4-5 SU on the season but are 3-1 on the road. (Technically A road game). The problem for the Colts is the defense. Giving up 37, 39, 38 prior to last weeks game against Carolina. Throw out that game, so can they advance to a 4-1 record away from home with poor a Defense? Patriots average 20 points in home games, but I am eliminating the Saints game in which they had 0 points in that game. That wont happen here. As much as New England sucks Belichick has enough film to find enough points to win this home game.

Neutral site game, coaching advantage playing a team that cant stop A team, except Carolina, from scoring. Advantage Patriots. Could the over be in play as well ?
 
spottie2935 said:
A few notes from last week.

There were 4 prime time games ( I will include the game in Germany as a prime game as no other games were playing)

All 4 favorites covered those games last week.

Prime time games on Thursday SNF and Monday nights Favorites are 18-9 ATS ( their have been a few pushes but I gave those pushes cover wins for the favorite because the favorite won the game.

=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-

The Bears are off back to back lines of +10 now minus -3.5 no team has covered as favorites in this situation (0-8 ATS) but the Thursday night game is very difficult for road Dogs. Carolina is so bad anyways, if they play bad it wont be because of A Thursday game.

I wont bet the Bears but I will chance an in game line if the Panthers stay competitive and the line is favorable.

-==-=--=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=
Click to expand...
Appreciate this
 
wiseplayer said:
How are the Jets -2 at Vegas? They might not score 2.
Click to expand...
Its been true all season and will be as long as Hackett is employed and the offensive lineman play like they should be working the concession stands instead of playing but this team has beaten both the Bills and Eagles.
 
Sounds like Kyler is playing this week and all I can say is why. Just put him on ice for the rest of the season and ride Tune to the first overall pick.
 
With all of my suffering watching this offense suck for 25 years is there any doubt as to why I want an offensive coach to be the head man with this team. Fuck Saleh and Hackett.
 
B.A.R. said:
I'll need an explanation here
Click to expand...
Before I get a cup of coffee and stroke my beard

This week might be the worst in professional sports since I've been alive . I should have said "thread", not post as it accurately projects how incredibly awful this schedule is.

Pretty sure it's an all timer.
 
spottie2935 said:
The Colts are 4-5 SU on the season but are 3-1 on the road. (Technically A road game). The problem for the Colts is the defense. Giving up 37, 39, 38 prior to last weeks game against Carolina. Throw out that game, so can they advance to a 4-1 record away from home with poor a Defense? Patriots average 20 points in home games, but I am eliminating the Saints game in which they had 0 points in that game. That wont happen here. As much as New England sucks Belichick has enough film to find enough points to win this home game.

Neutral site game, coaching advantage playing a team that cant stop A team, except Carolina, from scoring. Advantage Patriots. Could the over be in play as well ?
Click to expand...
interesting game as could argue it profiles similar to colts/panthers - I mean panthers/patriots/jets/giants all have offenses that are similar in output then not ...... ......colts overall resume since week 1 is actually good tho games vs rams and saints have been duds for sure

I want to say titans are better then the bucs - struggling to do so with any confidence

Chargers have had way tougher schedule then detroit......geno hasn't exactly lit the league on fire this year and look at what he did to that detroit secondary

cardinals can't defend the run - really falcons have the better defense, oline, and all around team but if josh doubs is any indication kylar murray could wreck it all with his legs

Great spot for Jets imo.
 
Bagent to score TD running is +347
Bagent to throw a INT -150

Both look kinda good to me.


Saints are a shitty contain team but he can move around a bit., QBs at his level gotta tuck and run quick. Now, maybe Bears don’t risk him running much by design, but…
 
Hate overs in TNF games, but playing it tonight. Both quarterbacks love to turn the ball over. Both offenses should move the ball. As long as those turnovers don’t happen in the red zone, should be good.
 
Carolina road games averaging 57 ppg this season

Chicago home games averaging 48 ppg this season
 
Remember when Indy vs NE was GOY material? What is up with this Indy team that they seem to play better on the road (3-1)? The loss @ Jacksonville was mostly due to 4 turnovers and special teams. NE is winless outside the division. Gotta be Indy or nothing here.
 
when do things change?when.png

its been a chalk show since week 2

Nov 09, 2023viewThursday102023PanthersBearsaway7-33-60-73-013-163.538.0-30.5-9.0-4.2-4.8LWU0
Nov 12, 2023viewSunday102023Texansaway6.047.0
Nov 12, 2023viewSunday102023Packersaway3.038.5
Nov 12, 2023viewSunday102023Brownsaway6.538.0
Nov 12, 2023viewSunday102023Giantsaway17.538.5
Nov 12, 2023viewSunday102023Commandersaway6.044.5
Nov 13, 2023viewMonday102023Broncosaway7.046.5
 
C-MAN said:
Remember when Indy vs NE was GOY material? What is up with this Indy team that they seem to play better on the road (3-1)? The loss @ Jacksonville was mostly due to 4 turnovers and special teams. NE is winless outside the division. Gotta be Indy or nothing here.
Click to expand...
The game is on neutral site fwiw
 
Yep, aware. Bet NE 1H. Kraft was interviewed before the game and said he has never started a season 2-7 and so he felt it necessary to address the team before this game. It is obviously an important game for the boss so expect NE to at least start good.
 
C-MAN said:
Yep, aware. Bet NE 1H. Kraft was interviewed before the game and said he has never started a season 2-7 and so he felt it necessary to address the team before this game. It is obviously an important game for the boss so expect NE to at least start good.
Click to expand...
So 2-8 is still possible....smh...neutral site..what weapon gunna appear out of a magic hat? Juju?
 
Jax +3 Is Strange. One team 5 game winning streak the other loses 3 in a row...
Brock looks lost lately. And 9ers are fav...Why?
 
Houston are a profitable 5-0 ATS in their last 5 visits to Cincinnati. They are 7-3 ATS the last 10 times they’ve played the Bengals.
 
Vapster said:
Jax +3 Is Strange. One team 5 game winning streak the other loses 3 in a row...
Brock looks lost lately. And 9ers are fav...Why?
Click to expand...
I think Deebo makes him a completely different QB. Crazy that SF are basically a 70% bet on favorite, the biggest concern if you cap line moves is why did they move it from 2.5 to 3? That's generally a pretty bad sign for the dog.
 
If you like at 49ers odds in their other games, i‘m not sure why today’s odds look strange. It‘s the 49ers. And Jax isn’t in the same league as a team like Philadelphia. Jax fwiw lost by 8 at home to KC with KC knocking on Jax 1 as time expired.
 
VirginiaCavs said:
If you like at 49ers odds in their other games, i‘m not sure why today’s odds look strange. It‘s the 49ers. And Jax isn’t in the same league as a team like Philadelphia. Jax fwiw lost by 8 at home to KC with KC knocking on Jax 1 as time expired.
Click to expand...
Also I think SF has a very good history coming off the bye week...which obviously both teams are. I don't know how Jax typically performs, it used to be pretty common knowledge it was after a trip to London but now that becomes another elephant in the room.
 
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