Week 1 Plays & Analysis

Killa

To the left, to the left, to the right to the righ
Forum looks to be doing great, you guys have been working your asses off to prepare for this season and I'm impressed. I just can't get into CFB in June or even July. So I'm in the early stages of my preparation, and I have plenty of catching up to do. But fuck it, it felt great to make a bet on a CFB game.

Indiana -3
I expected this line to definitely be more than a FG. We have a Big 10 team playing at home, a program that is improving and excepting to improve more. Attendance was up 39% last year, and they've got 7 home games lined up this season. Powers is back at QB, he's 6'4'' and has all sorts of receivers to work with in this spread offense. WR Hardy will be back from injury, he is dominant at 6'7'' and will be the best player in this game. That man was on pace for 1,400 yards before the injury, and he was racking up TD's like I rack up psycho girlfriends. The defense is the big question mark, but all is not bad. The secondary should actually be decent, with everybody back. The problem, once again, is the run defense. I'm hoping that won't be a huge problem in this particular spot, with WMU losing their best runner. Another interesting note about this game is that Phil the Thrill Steele actually calls for Indy to have THE most improved special teams unit in the country. That's pretty nice in a game with a low spread.

On the WMU side of things, they look to be pretty decent this season. HC Cubit has turned the team around with good QB play and an improving defense. IMO, some bad factors for them this game though. I see very little size in their secondary, which is decent, but might have problems containing Hardy and co. The big problem I see is the lookahead spot. WMU has a HUGE home opener against the mighty Toledo in Week 2. Toledo has whooped WMU annually for quite some time, and this could be WMU's best shot in a while to take them down. I'm thinking and hoping the lookahead factor will be there.

Couple other things I like about this game, for the trendy bastards. WMU is just 4-24 SU vs. the Big 10. 4-8 ATS in non-conference games the last 5 years. Indy is 19-2 SU and 12-5 ATS in home openers since 1985. Since '96, Indy is 8-0 SU and 5-1-2 ATS vs. the MAC. All in all, I like the play. This line is saying that WMU is a better team on a neutral field, and I don't buy that. Indy was favored in 2 home games last season, and they responded with 2 romps, covering by 23 and 16 fucking points. They know how hard the conference slate is, and they have responded very well to these rare chalk spots. Let's try this bad boy as my first play.

Thoughts and opinions welcomed :shake:
 
I agree.

But how can you break down the game and not mention the huge coaching edge to Indiana? LOL Cubit might work by mid-major standards, but Hoeppner is great in my opinion. I think he could turn the program right around. He just has to toughen them up on D as well as get them some more speed.
 
Good point Gar. You probably know more about these coaches than I do... but a coaching advantage is certainly a nice thing in CFB, probably more so than any other sport. :shake:
 
I love that play as well BDK...I played it when the lines came out at Pinny..

Excellent write-up and thoughts.

Look forward to more..
 
great write up killa. im gonna have to look at this game closer when week 1 gets here. lets see indiana roll them bitches
 
fondy it's got to be a slow time of the year when you're betting on those sports bud...lol...
 
B.A.R. said:
what else you looking at bro?

look forward to the next write-up


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Sorry guys... I see the forum has exploded, it's great to see... Busiest time of my life right now, with 5 classes, a job, a girl, and volunteer work... I miss the posting life, lol... I really apologize for not replying to all your threads, rest assured I did read them all though and I wish you all good luck the first week!

Adding one more play... I'm a little skeptical of totals this early, I like to play them alot as the season progresses but with all the question marks around the rules changes, plus the normal question marks around every team in the first week, I'm not gonna dive in too heavy this first week... I do have one though

UAB/OU Under 43
Credit SoonerBS for opening my eyes to this one, and then we promptly fell in love (me and the total that is)... He summed up everything pretty well in his short writeup... All the usual reasons for an under play... Lots of running on both sides, plus you have one team that figures to score very, very little in this game... Inexperience at the QB position and first-game jitters... AP should pound out alot of yards up the middle and kill clock, plus UAB is gonna have a hella time doing anything against these beasts up front from OU... Just repeating what Sooner has in his writeup, I give him all the credit on the writeup tip... Love the play though... I would really love to have the original 49 number they threw up there, but unfortunately I missed the boat

Might keep it a nice, neat package of 1 side and 1 total for the opening weekend... I'll be mostly using the first weekend to learn and take note of things that are going on... GL to all you fuckers
:cheers:
 
I wish I had the UNDER 49 as well. I could kick myself for not having my account funded at that time. Oh, well, no use crying over spilled milk. It should be solid anyway. Good luck to us, Killa!
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Killa said:
Nice to start the season 2-0... GL to all you guys! money;

Congratulations, Killa, I had my serious doubts on that OU/UAB UNDER going into the 4th quarter, but luck was on our side.
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excellent, Killa

that was a great call on Indiana too. i totally missed all value in the line, and ended up laying off...except in unposted teasers, lol.

good job todaymoney;
 
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