Wednesday's NBA Plays...

[emkee]

Record goes here, will audit in a bit.

League a little dysfunctional right now. Dogs barking hard and rampant backdoors.

Have been shitting the bed, run starts here.

New Orleans Pelicans at Charlotte Hornets

The play...

Hornets ML -125 (4 to win 3.2)

Thoughts later...

:tiphat:

 

[Retburj13]

Sports Insights
Since January 15th, #NBA underdogs getting <50% of bets have gone 41-9 ATS.

 

[emkee]

Yeah man.

'Vegas' are next level killing it if you couple this league with the NFL postseason.

Dogs went 8-1-1 ATS in the NFL playoffs, dogs in the NBA on a 25-4-1 ATS run.

All up that's 5-33-2 ATS, fucking insane and never ever seen before.

Has not been a run like this in 20+ years.

Ton of questionable 'backdoors' in there as well. It's like the Twilight Zone.

Dubs gave up 7 points in the final 45 seconds last night to blow the cover, trimmed an 18 point lead to 11 when they had to win by 13-14.

So much junk going on.

When I was a contrarian bettor back in the day this would have been beyond epic.

'Numbers, schedule, situation' bettors getting destroyed.

Dudes at 'Blankets' now blindly betting dogs, when that happens you know shits fucked up.

Reversion imminent though.

 

[B.A.R.]

Didn't we identify the key Warriors number as 11 or 12 last year for those home games lines in teens?

That is the one good thing about capping the Warriors. They almost always get outscored in the last 4-6 minutes of blowouts, especially at home.

 

[B.A.R.]

Looked back. Not horrid. There was the one stretch though.

Just off last year, they generally just crushed DD spreads or were around the number/lost outright.

It is amazing how many of their games at home were -10 or higher.


---------------


Dubs 6-12 ATS @ home this year with DD spreads.

That was just tough last night in hindsight. Coming off a long road-trip that ended with loss in Houston. The next two games are much bigger with the up n coming T-Wolves coming to two then a potential Finals Preview with Boston.

Definite throwaway game last night and they showed it in first half. Knicks were in a bad spot too, real bad. Just a gross game.

The funnier part would have been winning by 14 or 15 to middle it.

 

[emkee]

Didn't we identify the key Warriors number as 11 or 12 last year for those home games lines in teens?

That is the one good thing about capping the Warriors. They almost always get outscored in the last 4-6 minutes of blowouts, especially at home.

It's the manner in which they do it though.

0:45

Doug McDermott makes 23-foot three point jumper (Willy Hernangomez assists )108 - 123 0:32

Patrick McCaw bad pass (Willy Hernangomez steals) 108 - 123 0:28

Willy Hernangomez makes dunk (Trey Burke assists) 110 - 123 0:23

Omri Casspi out of bounds bad pass turnover 110 - 123 0:09

Trey Burke makes 20-foot pullup jump shot 112 - 123 0:00

End of the 4th Quarter 112 - 123 0:00

End of Game 112 - 123

 

[B.A.R.]

Well, it isn't shaving.

And it isn't anything new. This has happened at the end of many Warriors games.

The last 2-3 minutes of NBA games now are a new definition of garbage than it used to be. It is straight stat-stuffing at times. Of course a guy like Trey Burke is gonna try and get some buckets. He is trying to find a spot to stick in the league.

The end of the Warriors bench isn't as awful as last year (when unders at the 7 min mark were absolute gold) but those last few guys definitely are not the prettiest bunch out there (sorry Divol re: Casspi).

 

[B.A.R.]

2 -5 - 1 - 9

GSW rank scoring per quarters. Obviously evident of the bench (and blowouts).

Anyways, for the Charlotte game... looks solid. New Orleans should have some fatigue after the Chicago game while the Hornets breezed by the Kings for the most part. I'll be tracking this one for sure.

Good luck.

 

[emkee]

Definitely, last season when they had professional garbage timer Briante Weber in.

Guy was on the Rockets this year and did the same, now he's floating around somewhere waiting for his next shaving assignment.

Dubs garbage time crew this season has Nick Young, McGee and McCaw so not overly bad. Last season much worse.

The Bobcats do have one glaring thing against them, they're a favorite.

 

[emkee]

18-31 at the stripe and Kemba being Kemba, that's the game.