Basketball Betting Analysis: Our Top NBA Picks for May 19
Golden State Warriors vs. Los Angeles Lakers
Wednesday, May 19, 2021 at 10 p.m. ET (ESPN) at STAPLES Center in Los Angeles
They’re Back
The Lakers are in this situation — where they have to win in order to advance to the playoffs — primarily as a result of the injuries suffered to LeBron James and especially Anthony Davis.
Davis missed more than two months of play, during which span the Lakers plummeted in the playoff seeding.
LeBron also affected the Lakers negatively with his absence from March 20 to April 30.
Both superstars are obviously crucial to the Laker success.
AD is the team’s second-leading scorer with 21.8 points per game while LeBron leads the team with 25 points per game.
Each player, moreover, accrues over seven rebounds per game. LeBron also leads the squad with 7.8 assists per game.
Size and Physicality
Rebounding is an underrated asset in general, but an important one.
Davis and James are both 250-pounders who will help the Lakers make use of their advantages in size and physicality.
Not simply these two, but Montrezl Harrell is also a momentous rim-attacker who is characteristically strong inside.
With guys like these, the Lakers rank ninth in total rebounds per game despite having missed James and Davis for so much time.
Conversely, the Warriors rank 25th in the category because they lack any semblance of L.A.’s physical presence inside.
Warrior bigs are, ironically stated, rather small. Starting center Kevon Looney, for example, is 6’9, 222 pounds.
Inside Scoring
Size is important because of its contribution to rebounding statistics. Rebounding means more second-chance scoring opportunities.
When a team can grab offensive rebounds, it has a larger margin of error in terms of scoring efficiency. It can miss more baskets because it can rebound more of them and attempt more shots.
But of course, I am not saying that size is everything. Obviously, Sports Betting in basketball is not merely an exercise in height and weight comparison.
What matters between the Warriors and Lakers is the way in which the physicality differential between these tams plays itself out on the court.
This differential largely explains why the regular season series tilted so decisively in the Lakers’ favor.
The Lakers lost one game — which I will explain shortly why consideration of this game should not dim our belief in the Lakers — and blew out the Warriors in the other two games with final scores of 117-91 and 128-97, respectively.
In the first meeting between these teams, on January 18, the Lakers converted 74.2 percent of their 31 shot attempts within five feet of the basket.
When these teams played again on February 28, the Lakers converted 68.6 percent of their 35 field goal attempts within five feet of the basket.
In the third and most recent meeting between these squads, L.A. made an absurd 96.7 percent of its field goal attempts within five feet of the hoop.
Just to put these percents in perspective, the NBA leader in field goal percentage within five feet of the basket is Milwaukee with 66.1 percent.
So, when they face Golden State, the Lakers are performing well above the best in terms of being efficient at the rim.
Los Angeles uses its physical advantage inside to outmuscle and generally outperform the Warriors’ interior defense.
This advantage has been present and productive in every meeting between these teams, so there is no reason to expect differently tonight.
The Importance of Kelly Oubre Jr.
Why did the Warriors win that one game, though? Do we have reason to expect another unexpected Warrior triumph over the Lakers?
In that game, Kelly Oubre Jr. accrued 37 minutes for the Warriors. He produced easily the best +/- rating among Warrior starters and he was his team’s second-leading scorer.
Without Oubre Jr., the Warriors do not come close to winning that nail-biter.
Oubre can space the floor by providing a threat from behind the arc, lock down an opponent’s top scorer, amass double-digit rebounding totals, and bolster his team’s momentum by posterizing opposing rim protectors.
So it’s crucial to note that Oubre Jr. will miss tonight’s game with a wrist injury.
Steph Curry
Since the Warriors cannot compete inside, they need to be dominant from behind the arc.
On offense, Golden State is uniquely dependent on Steph Curry, which is why he ranks fifth in usage rate and which is why the Warrior offense plus the team in general completely plummets in quality when Curry misses games.
Curry’s three-point shooting will be necessary to his team’s success.
However, Curry is at his worst against the Lakers.
In his career, his lowest field goal percentage and lowest three-point percentage are against the Lakers.
He is especially disastrous in L.A.’s STAPLES Center, where he is 16-for-77 (20.8 percent) from behind the arc in his last eight games combined.
With a number of potent perimeter defenders, the Lakers allow the fifth-fewest open three-point attempts.
Their tight perimeter defense will make Golden State’s offense equally hopeless from behind the arc as it will be in the interior against reigning Defensive Player of the Year runner-up Anthony Davis and his elite shot-blocking.
Best Bet: Lakers -4.5 at -112 with BetOnline
Golden State Warriors vs. Los Angeles Lakers
Wednesday, May 19, 2021 at 10 p.m. ET (ESPN) at STAPLES Center in Los Angeles
They’re Back
The Lakers are in this situation — where they have to win in order to advance to the playoffs — primarily as a result of the injuries suffered to LeBron James and especially Anthony Davis.
Davis missed more than two months of play, during which span the Lakers plummeted in the playoff seeding.
LeBron also affected the Lakers negatively with his absence from March 20 to April 30.
Both superstars are obviously crucial to the Laker success.
AD is the team’s second-leading scorer with 21.8 points per game while LeBron leads the team with 25 points per game.
Each player, moreover, accrues over seven rebounds per game. LeBron also leads the squad with 7.8 assists per game.
Size and Physicality
Rebounding is an underrated asset in general, but an important one.
Davis and James are both 250-pounders who will help the Lakers make use of their advantages in size and physicality.
Not simply these two, but Montrezl Harrell is also a momentous rim-attacker who is characteristically strong inside.
With guys like these, the Lakers rank ninth in total rebounds per game despite having missed James and Davis for so much time.
Conversely, the Warriors rank 25th in the category because they lack any semblance of L.A.’s physical presence inside.
Warrior bigs are, ironically stated, rather small. Starting center Kevon Looney, for example, is 6’9, 222 pounds.
Inside Scoring
Size is important because of its contribution to rebounding statistics. Rebounding means more second-chance scoring opportunities.
When a team can grab offensive rebounds, it has a larger margin of error in terms of scoring efficiency. It can miss more baskets because it can rebound more of them and attempt more shots.
But of course, I am not saying that size is everything. Obviously, Sports Betting in basketball is not merely an exercise in height and weight comparison.
What matters between the Warriors and Lakers is the way in which the physicality differential between these tams plays itself out on the court.
This differential largely explains why the regular season series tilted so decisively in the Lakers’ favor.
The Lakers lost one game — which I will explain shortly why consideration of this game should not dim our belief in the Lakers — and blew out the Warriors in the other two games with final scores of 117-91 and 128-97, respectively.
In the first meeting between these teams, on January 18, the Lakers converted 74.2 percent of their 31 shot attempts within five feet of the basket.
When these teams played again on February 28, the Lakers converted 68.6 percent of their 35 field goal attempts within five feet of the basket.
In the third and most recent meeting between these squads, L.A. made an absurd 96.7 percent of its field goal attempts within five feet of the hoop.
Just to put these percents in perspective, the NBA leader in field goal percentage within five feet of the basket is Milwaukee with 66.1 percent.
So, when they face Golden State, the Lakers are performing well above the best in terms of being efficient at the rim.
Los Angeles uses its physical advantage inside to outmuscle and generally outperform the Warriors’ interior defense.
This advantage has been present and productive in every meeting between these teams, so there is no reason to expect differently tonight.
The Importance of Kelly Oubre Jr.
Why did the Warriors win that one game, though? Do we have reason to expect another unexpected Warrior triumph over the Lakers?
In that game, Kelly Oubre Jr. accrued 37 minutes for the Warriors. He produced easily the best +/- rating among Warrior starters and he was his team’s second-leading scorer.
Without Oubre Jr., the Warriors do not come close to winning that nail-biter.
Oubre can space the floor by providing a threat from behind the arc, lock down an opponent’s top scorer, amass double-digit rebounding totals, and bolster his team’s momentum by posterizing opposing rim protectors.
So it’s crucial to note that Oubre Jr. will miss tonight’s game with a wrist injury.
Steph Curry
Since the Warriors cannot compete inside, they need to be dominant from behind the arc.
On offense, Golden State is uniquely dependent on Steph Curry, which is why he ranks fifth in usage rate and which is why the Warrior offense plus the team in general completely plummets in quality when Curry misses games.
Curry’s three-point shooting will be necessary to his team’s success.
However, Curry is at his worst against the Lakers.
In his career, his lowest field goal percentage and lowest three-point percentage are against the Lakers.
He is especially disastrous in L.A.’s STAPLES Center, where he is 16-for-77 (20.8 percent) from behind the arc in his last eight games combined.
With a number of potent perimeter defenders, the Lakers allow the fifth-fewest open three-point attempts.
Their tight perimeter defense will make Golden State’s offense equally hopeless from behind the arc as it will be in the interior against reigning Defensive Player of the Year runner-up Anthony Davis and his elite shot-blocking.
Best Bet: Lakers -4.5 at -112 with BetOnline
