Wednesday Discussion Thread

VirginiaCavs

VirginiaCavs

CTG Super Moderator
Staff member
Jul 27 Wed 2022

12:35 PM
951Atlanta BravesC. Morton -R-1½
+105		-140O 8½
-115
952Philadelphia PhilliesK. Gibson -R+1½
-125		+130U 8½
-105
01:10 PM
969San Diego PadresY. Darvish -R-1½
+120		-135O 7½
+105
970Detroit TigersT. Skubal -L+1½
-140		+125U 7½
-125
02:10 PM
959Los Angeles AngelsJ. Junk -R+1½
-170		+118O 9
-115
960Kansas City RoyalsB. Keller -R-1½
+150		-128U 9
-105
02:10 PM
971Minnesota TwinsC. Archer -R+1½
-120		+170O 8
-102
972Milwaukee BrewersC. Burnes -R-1½
+100		-185U 8
-118
03:10 PM
953Washington NationalsP. Corbin -L+237O 9
+100
954Los Angeles DodgersA. Heaney -L-265U 9
-120
03:10 PM
973Chicago White SoxL. Giolito -R-1½
+105		-138O 11½
-105
974Colorado RockiesA. Senzatela -R+1½
-125		+128U 11½
-115
03:37 PM
961Houston AstrosC. Javier -R-1½
-125		-185O 7½
-105
962Oakland AthleticsC. Irvin -L+1½
+105		+170U 7½
-115
03:40 PM
955San Francisco GiantsL. Webb -R-1½
+145		-113O 8
+105
956Arizona DiamondbacksZ. Gallen -R+1½
-165		+103U 8
-125
06:40 PM
957Miami MarlinsB. Garrett -L+1½
-150		+143O 8½
+105
958Cincinnati RedsL. Castillo -R-1½
+130		-155U 8½
-125
07:05 PM
965Tampa Bay RaysD. Rasmussen -R-1½
+145		-117O 8½
+110
966Baltimore OriolesT. Wells -R+1½
-165		+107U 8½
-130
07:07 PM
975St. Louis CardinalsA. Wainwright -R+1½
-105		+205O 8
-115
976Toronto Blue JaysK. Gausman -R-1½
-115		-226U 8
-105
07:10 PM
967Cleveland GuardiansC. Quantrill -R+1½
-160		+125O 9
-115
968Boston Red SoxN. Eovaldi -R-1½
+140		-135U 9
-105
 
Lot of day action!! Of course I’m gonna miss some of it at another stupid eye Dr visit!! I’ll bet it before I go tho., gonna try and sleep a few hours before I start on this, kinda tired.
 
Only thing I’ll say right now is I wonder if the little break helped Skubal out? He finally looked fantastic again after asb but it was against oak so hard to say! Lol. You can def get pads to fan a lot tho!!

Speaking of crappy Oakland? Javier will mow down a bunch of them!!
 
Damn, they opened Javier k’s at 6.5 which fine, expected that, but freaking -155 to over already., not even gonna dig into it, wait and see where market pushes him.. long as there no red flags it probably end up at 7.5 w plus money to over. I gotta love a guy to play that number, I’ll look later.,
 
Brutal losses on my two unders (Braves and A’s) and can’t complain about a really nice day - but man…still need to stew over the card to see what I feel like sweating while in the pool
 
Ryno14 said:
Brutal losses on my two unders (Braves and A’s) and can’t complain about a really nice day - but man…still need to stew over the card to see what I feel like sweating while in the pool
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Of course nats won game after blowing Ff in bottom 5th. I called that happening after listing all the reasons to go Ff.. fucking unreal. Lol. FF’s totally burnt me twice yesterday,
 
Lad -280 for all the chasers to go broke! Warned bout it yesterday that this series had that pirates feel to it all over again. I’m to foggy to do the math on how much they will have to be risking to get the 1st 2 losses back on this one? I know it a crazy number tho!! I could see this thing being pushed well up over -300 2marro. Corbin has his moments still and he is a lefty. Nats prob worth a few bucks!
 
Heaney has pitched 1 game the last 3 months, never been a ace that I can recall (he a solid pitcher), and he gonna be -300ish?? Lmao: Maybe dodgers win but ya gotta be crazy to play them here! Corbin is mostly crap but every now and again he shows up and reminds ppl he used to be a really good pitcher!! , this feels like one those times to me. There ppl who prob been making bank on lad all month and after a few games they in danger of being down betting them if they get crazy and try to get these last 2 losses back thinking nats can’t possibly sweep them, I got news for ya, they absolutely can! Be careful!!!
 
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Wouldn’t ya know Corbin actually has a career 3.60 era at Chavez ravine, dodgers ops against him is only .734, while he hasn’t been great anytime this year really he is 2-10 w a 7 era at night but 2-3 with a 4.46 era in the day this year, not exactly the gas can he been at night! And while dodgers are no longer weak against lhp their ops is still a good 20 points lower vs lefties. I’m not saying go bet your paycheck on nats, I’m just saying don’t go chasing lad here! And yea if I can get close to 3-1 I’ll prob throw few bucks on nats for the sweep.
 
I want to believe that stretch of crappy pitching is behind Skubal, I think the break helped him and he now on 5 days rest here where he been way better than 4 this year. Darvish has pretty much been fantastic all the time and with way tigers struggle vs RHP I would think Yu gonna be a nightmare for them! Ff or full game under, both should be good here. I like the u3.5 -105 but no problem w full gm either cause tigers pen been fantastic and Yu should pitch super deep into this game (like 7+ innings imo). Far as the props go I would lean Skubal ov 5.5 k’s, Yu over 20.5 outs.
 
They have finally caught on to my most recent k prop cash cow and moved Jon gray number up to 6.5, not a good time for it either cause he on 5 days rest, he been much better on 4, and during the day his k rate hasn’t been nearly as high as at night. Sometimes gotta jump ship, no k prop over for gray here. That doesn’t mean there not a play tho. Rangers one the better lhp hitting teams, I never been super high on Marco Gonzalez since way back when cards traded him. I like Gray and rangers 1st 5, no way do I want any part rangers pen against a seattle team that likes to win games late, I do think rangers be leading after 5 tho.
 
Javier up to 7.5 k’s already. I just don’t think we can play that, he could fan 8+ but he has only done so 5 of his 14 starts all year. I think that insane stretch against yanks and halo’s has caused him to be a bit overvalued. Hate missing chances to go against A’s but we got our cash w garcia k’s yesterday, this one gotta be a pass for me.
 
Kyle Gibson o4.5? The Braves do swing and miss a lot, I just don’t know if he can go the full 5 innings you probably need.
 
askias said:
Kyle Gibson o4.5? The Braves do swing and miss a lot, I just don’t know if he can go the full 5 innings you probably need.
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He a really tough guy to play over k’s, he did fan 8 in 5 innings his only other meeting vs atl this year. His swinging strike rate actually ain’t bad, higher than I woulda guessed. He has only fanned 5+ Like 7x in 19 starts. 5 in his last 17!! I can’t really argue against it but don’t want to play him. I havnt found many I like yet so maybe he is as good as any on this card?
 
Ryno14 said:
Gray -115 for me so far. Eyeing Skubal, Garrett, and Wells
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I like the under in Detroit better, I like Skubal also but I have serious doubts tigers will be able to touch Yu, they struggle hitting avg rhp, seeing all that shit Darvish throws gonna have their heads spinning!!

Castillo over 5.5 k’s all day for me. He should make mince meat of that fish lineup.
 
I’m not sure if it even worth messing w the game in cincy tho? I’m seeing over 50% chance of rain there all day/night. Weathermen are retarded but I hate taking the chance of my pitcher getting rained out of the game after a delay.,
 
2daBank said:
I like the under in Detroit better, I like Skubal also but I have serious doubts tigers will be able to touch Yu, they struggle hitting avg rhp, seeing all that shit Darvish throws gonna have their heads spinning!!

Castillo over 5.5 k’s all day for me. He should make mince meat of that fish lineup.
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Guessing this will be Castillo's last start for them
 
Eovaldi has looked god awful since coming back. Granted it was against the yanks and jays who’s offenses are tougher than cle but tribe don’t strike out a lot and have their moments, with way Red Sox offense struggling there no way I’m laying minus anything w Eovaldi till he shows me something. Tribe tempting dogs.
 
2daBank said:
Eovaldi has looked god awful since coming back. Granted it was against the yanks and jays who’s offenses are tougher than cle but tribe don’t strike out a lot and have their moments, with way Red Sox offense struggling there no way I’m laying minus anything w Eovaldi till he shows me something. Tribe tempting dogs.
Click to expand...

"Eovaldi has gone 3-2 with a 3.47 ERA in his career against the Guardians, but he hasn't beaten them in a while. The last time the 32-year-old won against Cleveland was on Aug. 13, 2015."
 
Ryno14 said:
You’re already getting Soto so hush it you greedy SOB!
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I don’t believe the soto talk for 1 second. Cards cheap asses really gonna trade for a dude who turned down 440 mil and has a agent that def taking him to market? I don’t think so. Honestly it be fun but I’m not really stoked bout soto, our offense plenty good, we need pitching! Castillo, keller, montas is my wish list!
 
inZane said:
"Eovaldi has gone 3-2 with a 3.47 ERA in his career against the Guardians, but he hasn't beaten them in a while. The last time the 32-year-old won against Cleveland was on Aug. 13, 2015."
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He ain’t looked nothing like that dude since coming back either., dunno if it just rust or he came back too soon?
 
Only problem w backing cle is I don’t really like Quantrill, but Sox lineup doesn’t look all that scary at the moment so maybe he be ok? I think most his good starts come from picking on shitty teams, my 1st thought was over but Sox offense been so bad lately.
 
I know devers been out, is story hurt also? You take those 2 out the lineup all a sudden not all that imposing!!
 
Forgot story hurt himself way before break. Just didn’t realize he was still hurt: guess he not even swinging a bat yet so that a bad sign. They can’t afford this slide they on, by time those guys come back they might be looking up at bunch of teams for last WC spot!!
 
Like the idea of that under instead as well. Good call
2daBank said:
I like the under in Detroit better, I like Skubal also but I have serious doubts tigers will be able to touch Yu, they struggle hitting avg rhp, seeing all that shit Darvish throws gonna have their heads spinning!!

Castillo over 5.5 k’s all day for me. He should make mince meat of that fish lineup.
Click to expand...
 
Marsski said:
Lets try another K parlay:

1 unit bet: Darvish over 5.5 Ks/Castillo Over 5.5 Ks +130
Click to expand...

Love the Castillo half. Did you move Yu down? I didn’t think much bout his k’s but coulda swore I saw 6.5 on him. At 6.5 I preferred his over 20.5 outs just cause tigers not typically a high k team. 5.5 a different story tho, I think he gets there on shear volume of outs he gonna get in this game! I have little doubt Darvish goes 7 innings minimum and probably into the 8th against this team, unless he has one them games he does fan a lot of guys early then he might not go quite as deep. I feel like he pretty much automatic to get 21 outs tho! I’ve cashed his out total a couple times when didn’t look like there was a chance in hell after 2-3 innings!! Then all a sudden he settles in and cruises thru bunch of efficient innings! Plus pads never shy bout letting him run his pitch count up which rare and a really nice quality for our cause!!
 
Marsski said:
Lets try another K parlay:

1 unit bet: Darvish over 5.5 Ks/Castillo Over 5.5 Ks +130
Click to expand...

Did you see the weather in cincy? I never trust these fucking forecast but I saw 50% chance pretty much every hour throughout game time. That Only thing that worries me, there was a game this past week that had like hour delay and both teams brought starters back, I couldn’t believe it that almost never happens!! On flip side I’ve lost a few prop bets where we had rain delay and pitcher didn’t come back, that a real kick in the nuts so I try to avoid these games w that potential.
 
Don't pay much attention to the Angels but not sure how I've missed they have a pitcher named Junk
 
KJ said:
Don't pay much attention to the Angels but not sure how I've missed they have a pitcher named Junk
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I just saw that earlier for 1st time, never heard of him either, pretty much a perfect name for laa entire pitching staff!!

I have totally ignored them vs kc series. Only so much time in the day so I’ll often notice by 3rd game of a series I hadn’t spent 1 second capping any those games,, this just been one of those that looked like “blah” on surface so didn’t bother.
 
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2daBank said:
Love the Castillo half. Did you move Yu down? I didn’t think much bout his k’s but coulda swore I saw 6.5 on him. At 6.5 I preferred his over 20.5 outs just cause tigers not typically a high k team. 5.5 a different story tho, I think he gets there on shear volume of outs he gonna get in this game! I have little doubt Darvish goes 7 innings minimum and probably into the 8th against this team, unless he has one them games he does fan a lot of guys early then he might not go quite as deep. I feel like he pretty much automatic to get 21 outs tho! I’ve cashed his out total a couple times when didn’t look like there was a chance in hell after 2-3 innings!! Then all a sudden he settles in and cruises thru bunch of efficient innings! Plus pads never shy bout letting him run his pitch count up which rare and a really nice quality for our cause!!
Click to expand...
Yes. Gives me a little more room on a parlay. Weather not ideal in Cincy but if I wait on these they move so much...Showcase start for Castillo so I think they will use him all they can.
 
Marsski said:
Yes. Gives me a little more room on a parlay. Weather not ideal in Cincy but if I wait on these they move so much...Showcase start for Castillo so I think they will use him all they can.
Click to expand...

I feel ya. That the worst freaking thing bout these, ya can’t wait cause there enough of us smashing the lines they fuck up!! Lol. We need to have a conference call with all the sharp cats playing these pitcher props and all agree to wait on certain ones so we don’t have to fire early in fear of losing line!! Lmao.

I think you did right thing, not like waiting for weather does much good anyways! Everything can look clear on radar, prick weatherman says all good, then in 3rd inning some storms pop up out of freaking nowhere! Lol. Looking at the radar I want to say it looks to me like it be clear in cincy well before game time, just have to worry bout storms firing back up when atmosphere heats up in afternoon but how can we know? Might as well roll the dice since I think that bout only way he doesn’t mow down 6+! He pitching like a dude who can’t wait to be traded to a contender!
 
Got my way to play the SD/Pads

Under 7/Yu o20.5 outs/Skubal o5.5 k's is +440. Small wager since everything has to go completely as planned but those are solid odds
 
Damn. I know giolito has been ass this year, he has never pitched at coors so who knows how that go? But his k total is seriously 3.5?? Granted it -180 to the over but wouldn’t ya think it like 80% likely he fans at least 4? He has punched out 4 or more in 13 of his 17 starts, that 76%. 27 of 31 last year. So last 2 years he has fanned 4+ 83% his starts! Ov 3.5 -180 implies 64%!! Yes he has obviously diminished some this season, yes his swinging strike rate down but it still above 12%, he still fans over 10 per 9! His xfip is still 3.72!!

Unless there some info out that he hurt something is really wrong here!! We know even when guys struggle at coors they usually still expected to go 4-5 innings as teams don’t wanna send pen out to get killed!! The only way pitchers don’t eat innings here is if they simply can’t get out of a inning and have to be pulled!! His total outs is 16.5! You telling me if he goes 5+ innings he won’t have 4 k’s?
 
KJ said:
Problem w/Yu is it's -161. Under and Skubal are both +100 so helps that along. Obv if both pitcher props hit the under should as well.
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Damn, Yu got slammed, he was cheap when I capped him this morning. Makes sense, his out total was def my fav early prop.
 
KJ said:
That's at Caesars. DK doesn't offer total outs in SGPs
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I know, it sucks. I was all pumped up for the same game option then I tried and no total outs!! Rare I like both pitchers over k’s in same game but plenty of games I like on k’s and one outs. Pricks!!
 
Gallen ov 17.5 outs should be nice parlay partner. Giants offense been non existent of late, in 10 home starts gallen has went 59 innings so he right at 6 per start and no reason he should struggle getting thru 6 today!
 
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