Wed discussion

SportsNut

Breaking it down briefly
<TABLE style="WIDTH: 100%" border=0><TBODY><TR class=Column_Date_Headers_Odds><TD colSpan=7>MLB Baseball - Wed 4/22

</TD></TR><TR class=Column_Headers_Odds><TD colSpan=3>Game</TD><TD>Run Line</TD><TD>Money Line</TD><TD>Total Runs</TD><TD>More</TD></TR><TR class=AD1><TD>Wed 4/22</TD><TD>901</TD><TD>Florida Marlins
R. Nolasco
</TD><TD>-1.5 +160</TD><TD>+100</TD><TD>OVER 8.5 +107</TD><TD vAlign=center align=middle rowSpan=2></TD></TR><TR class=AD1><TD>09:35 AM</TD><TD>902</TD><TD>Pittsburgh Pirates
P. Maholm
</TD><TD>+1.5 -170</TD><TD>-108</TD><TD>UNDER 8.5 -117</TD></TR><TR class=AD2><TD>Wed 4/22</TD><TD>903</TD><TD>Colorado Rockies
J. De La Rosa
</TD><TD>+1.5 -136</TD><TD>+160</TD><TD>OVER 9.5 +122</TD><TD vAlign=center align=middle rowSpan=2></TD></TR><TR class=AD2><TD>12:40 PM</TD><TD>904</TD><TD>Arizona D-Backs
D. Haren
</TD><TD>-1.5 +126</TD><TD>-168</TD><TD>UNDER 9.5 -132</TD></TR><TR class=AD1><TD>Wed 4/22</TD><TD>905</TD><TD>San Diego Padres
C. Young
</TD><TD>-1.5 +138</TD><TD>-120</TD><TD>OVER 8.5 -112</TD><TD vAlign=center align=middle rowSpan=2></TD></TR><TR class=AD1><TD>12:45 PM</TD><TD>906</TD><TD>San Francisco Giants
B. Zito
</TD><TD>+1.5 -148</TD><TD>+112</TD><TD>UNDER 8.5 +102</TD></TR><TR class=AD2><TD>Wed 4/22</TD><TD>907</TD><TD>Milwaukee Brewers
B. Looper
</TD><TD>+1.5 -166</TD><TD>+120</TD><TD>OVER 10 -106</TD><TD vAlign=center align=middle rowSpan=2></TD></TR><TR class=AD2><TD>04:05 PM</TD><TD>908</TD><TD>Philadelphia Phillies
J. Blanton
</TD><TD>-1.5 +156</TD><TD>-128</TD><TD>UNDER 10 -104</TD></TR><TR class=AD1><TD>Wed 4/22</TD><TD>909</TD><TD>Atlanta Braves
J. Jurrjens
</TD><TD>-1.5 +127</TD><TD>-129</TD><TD>OVER 8.5 +104</TD><TD vAlign=center align=middle rowSpan=2></TD></TR><TR class=AD1><TD>04:05 PM</TD><TD>910</TD><TD>Washington Nationals
J. Lannan
</TD><TD>+1.5 -137</TD><TD>+121</TD><TD>UNDER 8.5 -114</TD></TR><TR class=AD2><TD>Wed 4/22</TD><TD>911</TD><TD>Cincinnati Reds
J. Cueto
</TD><TD></TD><TD>+158</TD><TD></TD><TD vAlign=center align=middle rowSpan=2></TD></TR><TR class=AD2><TD>05:05 PM</TD><TD>912</TD><TD>Chicago Cubs
T. Lilly
</TD><TD></TD><TD>-166</TD><TD></TD></TR><TR class=AD1><TD>Wed 4/22</TD><TD>913</TD><TD>Los Angeles Dodgers
R. Wolf
</TD><TD>+1.5 -201</TD><TD>+107</TD><TD>OVER 9 -109</TD><TD vAlign=center align=middle rowSpan=2></TD></TR><TR class=AD1><TD>05:05 PM</TD><TD>914</TD><TD>Houston Astros
R. Oswalt
</TD><TD>-1.5 +183</TD><TD>-115</TD><TD>UNDER 9 -101</TD></TR><TR class=AD2><TD>Wed 4/22</TD><TD>915</TD><TD>New York Mets
J. Maine
</TD><TD>+1.5 -196</TD><TD>-103</TD><TD>OVER 9.5 -102</TD><TD vAlign=center align=middle rowSpan=2></TD></TR><TR class=AD2><TD>05:15 PM</TD><TD>916</TD><TD>St Louis Cardinals
J. Pineiro
</TD><TD>-1.5 +181</TD><TD>-105</TD><TD>UNDER 9.5 -108</TD></TR><TR class=AD1><TD>Wed 4/22</TD><TD>917</TD><TD>Oakland Athletics
B. Anderson
</TD><TD>+1.5 +111</TD><TD>+240</TD><TD>OVER 9 -111</TD><TD vAlign=center align=middle rowSpan=2></TD></TR><TR class=AD1><TD>10:05 AM</TD><TD>918</TD><TD>New York Yankees
C. Sabathia
</TD><TD>-1.5 -121</TD><TD>-260</TD><TD>UNDER 9 +101</TD></TR><TR class=AD2><TD>Wed 4/22</TD><TD>919</TD><TD>Chicago White Sox
J. Danks
</TD><TD>+1.5 -206</TD><TD>-105</TD><TD>OVER 9 -110</TD><TD vAlign=center align=middle rowSpan=2></TD></TR><TR class=AD2><TD>04:05 PM</TD><TD>920</TD><TD>Baltimore Orioles
J. Guthrie
</TD><TD>-1.5 +186</TD><TD>-103</TD><TD>UNDER 9 +100</TD></TR><TR class=AD1><TD>Wed 4/22</TD><TD>921</TD><TD>Kansas City Royals
B. Bannister
</TD><TD>+1.5 -118</TD><TD>+175</TD><TD>OVER 9 -129</TD><TD vAlign=center align=middle rowSpan=2></TD></TR><TR class=AD1><TD>04:05 PM</TD><TD>922</TD><TD>Cleveland Indians
C. Lee
</TD><TD>-1.5 +108</TD><TD>-183</TD><TD>UNDER 9 +119</TD></TR><TR class=AD2><TD>Wed 4/22</TD><TD>925</TD><TD>Texas Rangers
M. Harrison
</TD><TD>+1.5 -140</TD><TD>+140</TD><TD>OVER 10.5 +110</TD><TD vAlign=center align=middle rowSpan=2></TD></TR><TR class=AD2><TD>04:05 PM</TD><TD>926</TD><TD>Toronto Blue Jays
D. Purcey
</TD><TD>-1.5 +130</TD><TD>-148</TD><TD>UNDER 10.5 -120</TD></TR><TR class=AD1><TD>Wed 4/22</TD><TD>927</TD><TD>Detroit Tigers
J. Verlander
</TD><TD>+1.5 -201</TD><TD>+103</TD><TD>OVER 8.5 -112</TD><TD vAlign=center align=middle rowSpan=2></TD></TR><TR class=AD1><TD>07:05 PM</TD><TD>928</TD><TD>LAA Angels
J. Saunders
</TD><TD>-1.5 +183</TD><TD>-111</TD><TD>UNDER 8.5 +102</TD></TR><TR class=AD2><TD>Wed 4/22</TD><TD>929</TD><TD>Tampa Bay Rays
J. Niemann
</TD><TD>-1.5 +145</TD><TD>-110</TD><TD>OVER 9 -115</TD><TD vAlign=center align=middle rowSpan=2></TD></TR><TR class=AD2><TD>07:10 PM</TD><TD>930</TD><TD>Seattle Mariners
C. Jakubauskas
</TD><TD>+1.5 -155</TD><TD>+102</TD><TD>UNDER 9 +105</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
 
Oswalt and Cliff Lee uon first glance and probably Danny Haren as well despite ZOna LHSP struggles but ending todays outcome as well . Some interesting totals as well ..
 
Like ATL to avoid the sweep.. Jurrjens has been the best looking pitcher for the bravos. better numbers in his career against nats than lannan against bravos. Took Bravos -129 on BetJam
 
game 1 or 2?

i like hova 2nd game but need to look ump more


oak/nyy hova as well
why not OAK, unless sabathia corrects his #s from last year vs the a's
 
game 1 or 2?

i like hova 2nd game but need to look ump more


oak/nyy hova as well
why not OAK, unless sabathia corrects his #s from last year vs the a's


fucking post got erased ...

Not saying to bet the Yanks by any means because its a big price for in an inconsistent team ..

however what happened vs OAK last year was simply CC struggling coming out of ST and nothing to do with OAK. Think he happened to face OAK tiwce in his 1st 4 starts last season if I recall. Pure timing IMO and nothing to do with OAK rather all about CC being messed up. Look it up OAK away vs LHSP scores 3 or less runs like 75% of the time ....they just faced 3 straight and scored 2,0 and 3 ...

:shake:
 
some live dog possibilities:

Mariners - this is just hilarious that they keep making them dogs at home against pitchers that aren't that good.
A's - seems like a big #, but not sure yet.
Giants - Young not near as good on road. Zito actually pitched ok last time out. Pads at end of long road trip to NY and Philly.

will almost def. play giants and M's
 
Oak vs LHSP away - wins bolded

22 of 33 were 3 runs or less for the entire game not just the SP so 67% not 75% as I mentioned above


2009 (4 of 5 3 or less runs)

3 Pettitte
0 Romero
2 Tallet
8 Purcey
0 Saunders

2008 (18 of 28 3 or less runs)
3 Rowland Smith
4 Harrison
3 Robertson
11 Waters
6 Saunders
5 Washburn
5 Fieierabrand
2 Rowland Smith
1 Liriano
1 Robertson
4 Gambler
2 Lester
0 Kaz
1 Pettitte
3 Danks
7 Buerhle
4 Saunders
1 Davis
5 Zito
2 reyes
2 Laffey
0 CC
0 Saunders
3 Bedard
1 Danks
2 Buerhle
1 Lee
9 CC





 
Oak vs LHSP away - wins bolded

22 of 33 were 3 runs or less for the entire game not just the SP so 67% not 75% as I mentioned above


2009 (4 of 5 3 or less runs)

3 Pettitte
0 Romero
2 Tallet
8 Purcey
0 Saunders

2008 (18 of 28 3 or less runs)
3 Rowland Smith
4 Harrison
3 Robertson
11 Waters
6 Saunders
5 Washburn
5 Fieierabrand
2 Rowland Smith
1 Liriano
1 Robertson
4 Gambler
2 Lester
0 Kaz
1 Pettitte
3 Danks
7 Buerhle
4 Saunders
1 Davis
5 Zito
2 reyes
2 Laffey
0 CC
0 Saunders
3 Bedard
1 Danks
2 Buerhle
1 Lee
9 CC

a lot of those guys are just good pitchers. Looks like they did okay against the not so good LHP.
 
That's a lot of love for a picture (C.C.) that hasn't even won a game yet....

I mean, I don't know.....even the Oak RL is tempting....
 
some live dog possibilities:

Mariners - this is just hilarious that they keep making them dogs at home against pitchers that aren't that good.
A's - seems like a big #, but not sure yet.
Giants - Young not near as good on road. Zito actually pitched ok last time out. Pads at end of long road trip to NY and Philly.

will almost def. play giants and M's

Well you got SEA today which crushed my great day ..dropped 5 units on them and was essentially my own loss but wiped out my profits ..which is really going to piss me off when I got scared on COL and reduced my play , passed on SFG and opted for 1st 5 inn LAA rather then full game ...go 3-1 and lose 4 units ..

they had Wash on the ropes and didnt put him away think he had 75 pitches through 4 innings...SEA had the big b4th which decided the game ....still cant buy into SEA despite riding them until the past 3 days when they have guys hitting 185 batting 3rd and 4th . Todays stars Mike Sweeney an unexpected starter against a RH gets 3hits and hpb in that crucial 4th and Rob Johnson the default catcher hits a triple ...

guess in summary I cant agree that the AL pennant winner is suddenly not much better then the Mariners the worst team in the AL last season...Rays just not getting the clutch hits ......

not saying I will ride anyone here but cant agree that SEA should not be underdogs ....

but just talking out of frustration I guess ...looks like 2 losers ...:shake:

 
a lot of those guys are just good pitchers. Looks like they did okay against the not so good LHP.

Whats CC ? I understand the point though but even vs good pitching thats terrible results IMO . Waters doesnt even count because he isnt even a ML pitcher and Purcey was like 1 hit that cleared the bases off him ..

They broke 4 runs in 7 off 33 games ..and 9-24 SU...

Would understand a small play on OAK as a shot in the dark but considering the likelyhood of runs being scored because its a day game its really a longshot . At least with texas today you had a team who had won 12 of 14 with low totals last season ....or as a public fade if it comes to that ..

:shake:
 
not me, had them tonight but thats it. They are playing like shit if you take the Washington series into context.

probably just playing like they SHOULD be.

probably a big day for me with the KCo along with FLA & ARI u1st5s
 
I'm just saying I don't think there's considerable evidence that A's can't hit lefties. They struggle against good lefties. Who doesn't? Obv CC is a good lefty which is why he's -250 or whatever. If CC isn't CC (which I don't think he is at this point), I think he should probably be only about -200 which makes Oakland a play.
 
probably just playing like they SHOULD be.

probably a big day for me with the KCo along with FLA & ARI u1st5s

They've been dominated the last 2 games by inferior major league pitchers.

That lineup has holes in it cause a bunch of them are HR or bust and Hanley hasn't been playing great on top of it all.
 
I'm just saying I don't think there's considerable evidence that A's can't hit lefties. They struggle against good lefties. Who doesn't? Obv CC is a good lefty which is why he's -250 or whatever. If CC isn't CC (which I don't think he is at this point), I think he should probably be only about -200 which makes Oakland a play.

If thats not evidence I dont know what is . What pitcher had an ERA of 3 or below on that list besides Lee? None did and only a few were in the mid 3's....

Yanks are always inflated as we know and I am not arguing against playing them but there is no foundation other then hoping . The price isnt off IMO when you consider how few games they have won on the road vs LHSP ....they essentially win 28% of the time and +300 is 25% of the time in real odds....:shake:
 
always appreciate your thoughts. have a good night.

I am just cranky from having a ridiculous night and pissing it away on the Rays and Over LAA....forget what I passed on finished 11-6-1 and down almost a unit ..no one to blame but me just pissed off....:cheers:
 
Played Houston under 9 even money. Do not want to go against Oswalt's history for such a small payoff but see Dodgers as much better now. Layne the umpire was 7-3 under with Houston in the past and Covers shows him currently as 1-4 under.
Dodgers on the road this season are 5-3 under. Dodgers at this site are 5-5 under last 10. Wolf pitched for Houston last year and was effective pitching in Houston for 5 of his 6 home starts going under in 5 of them. Oswalt against the Dodgers at home was 3-0 pitching well and going under 3-0.
Houston is fundamentally a weak hitting under team going under in 20 of their last 27 home games.
 
Currently no plans to attack Wakefield in the morning game. Some days angles favor him now and Boston is currently 5-2 in the day to Minn at 1-3. Would like the over but he has been a very good Wednesday home pitcher plus with Penny going in the night--. Too many contradictions to make a call as he still should be set for a blow up and is worse with extras rest.
Some interest in a Reds team total over with Lily off a gem facing the Reds in a night game. More faith in Cuetro and I might try a first half play on the Reds but currently a coward as both pitchers have many on the other team that can hit them.
 
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Will be looking at a first half play on Bannister today. Both bull pens look like jokes currently. Laffery put 10 men on base last night but got out for 1 run added by numerous double plays. KC is just flat hitting. Obviously so is Cleveland but Cleveland won by 1 run after a major meltdown by Ponscum and getting 6 doubleplays. See no reason to think Lee does that well today and Bannister has pitched very well in the past at this site.
 
verlander looked good last time out. he had one bad inning where I believe his defense really let him down. Don't think much of Angels offense either.

Verlander been slammed in both road starts this yr. verlander only pitched vs laa once. if thats a preview then goodnight (11 base runners, 6 ERs). saunders has started out great. short price with angels at home. i'm in (not all-in... just joking above)
 
This card has a ton of potential IMO

I really wish the Fish woulda won last night (for my pocketbook as well) and I'd have a ton of interest in Maholm over a strugglin Nolasco...

Now my interest is reduced.
 
Verlander been slammed in both road starts this yr. verlander only pitched vs laa once. if thats a preview then goodnight (11 base runners, 6 ERs). saunders has started out great. short price with angels at home. i'm in (not all-in... just joking above)

I can't argue with that logic and respect your opinion bro...Verlander has not been up to par this year.
 
Lilly looks like a good ticket to get a strugglin Reds offense going too...was I think 0-4 last year vs Cincy, which is weird for LHP vs the Reds...Bruce showed signs tonight, Brandon will be next..

Over might be worth a look too with Ceuto control issues...stuff is good though and CHC not exactly the 98 yanks with patience at the plate.

Reds and over prolly...reds for sure.
 
fucking post got erased ...

Not saying to bet the Yanks by any means because its a big price for in an inconsistent team ..

however what happened vs OAK last year was simply CC struggling coming out of ST and nothing to do with OAK. Think he happened to face OAK tiwce in his 1st 4 starts last season if I recall. Pure timing IMO and nothing to do with OAK rather all about CC being messed up. Look it up OAK away vs LHSP scores 3 or less runs like 75% of the time ....they just faced 3 straight and scored 2,0 and 3 ...

:shake:

Great points on Oakland vs lefties. But the 'Price is Right' and C.C. in day games doesnt dominate. C'Mon Down!
 
The more I think about it though it's alot of assumptions despite the success vs Lilly...the reds still aren't hitting at all...i think it could be the medicine, but double digits hits (10) once in 13 games is sorta hard to ignore and it's really hard to back an OVER play.

Pass on the over.
 
Zoolander had a good start last time at Seattle. One bad inning fucked it all up but he was as good as he's been since about middle of 2006 except for a couple of pitches. Mariners were confused the rest of the game and he did pitch an 8-inning CG I think. I'd be real hesistant to back Saunders at this price.
 
Nut, I distinctly remember you saying the Yankees typically don't play well vs. pitchers they haven't seen (referencing the Baltimore series to start out the year). That qualifies for Brett Anderson. Thoughts?
 
Zoolander had a good start last time at Seattle. One bad inning fucked it all up but he was as good as he's been since about middle of 2006 except for a couple of pitches. Mariners were confused the rest of the game and he did pitch an 8-inning CG I think. I'd be real hesistant to back Saunders at this price.

I understand the logic of the one-inning killing of Verlander's last start. He was relieved after giving up double to start 8th.

I don't understand why you'd be hesitant to back Saunders?
 
Lilly looks like a good ticket to get a strugglin Reds offense going too...was I think 0-4 last year vs Cincy, which is weird for LHP vs the Reds...Bruce showed signs tonight, Brandon will be next..

Over might be worth a look too with Ceuto control issues...stuff is good though and CHC not exactly the 98 yanks with patience at the plate.

Reds and over prolly...reds for sure.

I know Lilly struggled like CC at the start of the season so its hard to weigh those starts IMO. What I do know is Lilly actually started turning it around in a start vs Cincy . The game where Votto killed him if he could have gotten Vooto out that day he wouyld have had a nice stat line and game. If I recall it was Votto who killed him...

off the top of my head at least ...

just food for thought the 1st thing that popped into my head when I read this....
 
Have no idea what to make of the Yankee game ....obvious play with NY at home vs LHSP is Yanks-under parlay so I did the opposite and took A's +1.5 RL and Over parlayed ......1st road start for Anderson at Yankee Stadium of all places and A's facing 5th straight LH and 3 unders now but yesterday should have been an over ....CC lost 8 of 10 starts to OAK despite some real good home starts including the last one.....GL:cheers:
 
good pitchers imo:

buehrle
CC
bedard
danks
saunders
lester
lee
pettitte

I didnt disagree with what your saying but the fact is OAK rarely did anything vs these pitchers was my point . While they are good , I was saying the scored consistenly bewteen 0-3 runs vs them , statisically some of these pitchers allow alot of basehits and all but Lee had ERA's above 3.20 ...To me if they scoring say 1.5 runs per game vs them and the culmative ERA is 3.50 the regardless if they are good or poor or great they are still vastily underperforming (if a SP had a 4ERA but a team consistently avg 6+ runs off him then they would be exceeding expectations and if these guys are dominating OAK so badly then why didnt they have better overall stats)...also if you are saying its tough to beat those LH on the road again I agree but the fact they won just 3 of 22 scoring 3 runs or less illustrates how poorly they were playing...all semantics I guess...

GL today bro...:shake:
 
I know Lilly struggled like CC at the start of the season so its hard to weigh those starts IMO. What I do know is Lilly actually started turning it around in a start vs Cincy . The game where Votto killed him if he could have gotten Vooto out that day he wouyld have had a nice stat line and game. If I recall it was Votto who killed him...

off the top of my head at least ...

just food for thought the 1st thing that popped into my head when I read this....
I think you are right that game Votto had a couple bombs and like five steaks.
 
One approach to betting is to look for weak spots. That could be Penny. The 11 era might be very real. Looking at his recent past last year and this is grim. Minn in night games is 6-4 while Boston is 2-4. I have spread out 1.5 units in Minn minus 1.5 and Minn ml. Minn over 4.5 team total and Minn first half ml and minus .5 for various plus money favorites. A real negative is the homer ump but Minn has done reasonably with him in the past and Lirano has pitched well in the past on the road at night so in all other respects IF you are going to bet against Boston at home this looks like a good spot. Will probably be playing Boston at home in the day as a semiautomatic bet in the future if the morning game stands up.
 
I think you are right that game Votto had a couple bombs and like five steaks.

looked it up ...yep 5 steaks with the Hr and double ..terrible though in 2 of the last 3 which were basicaly all 2nd H but the good one was a gem...career issues with the Reds on the surface but 5+ ERA and tiny .206 BAA vs the Reds....:cheers:
 
One approach to betting is to look for weak spots. That could be Penny. The 11 era might be very real. Looking at his recent past last year and this is grim. Minn in night games is 6-4 while Boston is 2-4. I have spread out 1.5 units in Minn minus 1.5 and Minn ml. Minn over 4.5 team total and Minn first half ml and minus .5 for various plus money favorites. A real negative is the homer ump but Minn has done reasonably with him in the past and Lirano has pitched well in the past on the road at night so in all other respects IF you are going to bet against Boston at home this looks like a good spot. Will probably be playing Boston at home in the day as a semiautomatic bet in the future if the morning game stands up.

whether its real or not clearly Liriano is better then Baker especially at this point and hard to say that Penny is equal to Wake . So when they lose game 1 now down 6-0 seems like a very reasonable lay IMO ..Boston has had some issues vs quality LHPs:cheers:
 
played Zona ML and might arlay it with something . Also Zona 1st to score prop and maybe 1st 5 inn under . The big edge here despite COL lack of success vs LHSP now 0-5 or 0-6 is that COL pen has been working alot and DeLaRosa is usally a 5-6 inn guy not more ...
 
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