UFC 94: St. Pierre vs. Penn II - Saturday, January 31st

mogo · Jan 27, 2009

Sammy Meatballs said:
So all we need to find out what kind of fight it will be---

BRAWL-street fight- PENN wins possibly
TECHNICAL typical GSP fight- GSP wins decision or stoppage on ground

well lemme check my crystal ball...............

yup, just what i thought... crystal ball said "BRAWL" - so there you go sammy , BJ wins this!

bvmajik · Jan 27, 2009

kushBsmokin said:
What tools does GSP bring to the table?

BJ has the better striking, takedown defense, ground defense, and submission skills. Prefight, GSP's only advantage is wrestling. BJ's conditioning is a toss up and will only be a factor if it goes past the 3rd. I don't think a fighter should be rewarded for takedowns with no GnP or sub attempts to follow them up. Unless it's rampage, takedowns don't inflict much damage and are overrated in the eyes of the judges. GSP has won too many times in that fashion and pretty much...."I am not impressed with his per-form-ance!"

U have to try to finish fights n BJ will be the fighter looking to end this early while GSP will be waiting n trying to outlast him

you state that penn has better striking- fine, in the last fight gsp ate a lot of jabs so if that equates as better striking, you got it. forget that gsp landed 20something kicks/knees

td defense? how many times did koschek, fitch, serra take down gsp- maybe 1 time?? just for reference gsp took bj down 4 times in the last fight and was stuffed once; while bj took gsp down only once (to which he just stood back up)

ground defense- what is that? do you mean who has a better guard? edge goes to bj's bjj

sub skills- bj has 5 sub wins, gsp has 4/ but i get your point bj has better bjj

who has better conditioning? who has dominated in this weight class? who is going to push the pace? who has a better camp? who is stronger? who is faster? etc..

--->bj will break mentally when things arent going to plan and will give up. as talented as he is, and you guys have pointed out, he's done it so many times in the past and nothing makes believe that he's changed.

bvmajik · Jan 27, 2009

J Galt said:
Georges does NOT respond well when he's in trouble (see Serra fight and the end of the first round in the BJ fight, which I think would have been stopped had the round lasted 20 more seconds).

gsp didn't respond well after getting poked in the eye and having his nose broken? i think he did quite well in pulling out a tough decision win

i'm a big fan of bj penn but all his talk about ripping gsp's head off and dominating him only after beating lw's sherk, stevenson, and jens is a little premature... even for bj penn

bvmajik · Jan 27, 2009

<table class="matchupBox fontsize12" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0"><tbody><tr class="banner"><td colspan="2">MIXED MARTIAL ARTS - Jan 31 </td></tr><tr class="banner"><td colspan="2">UFC-94: "ST-PIERRE VS PENN-2" - LAS VEGAS, NV $1000 LIMIT </td></tr><tr class="evenRow"><td class="leftColumn"><small>8:00 PM</small></td><td class="rightColumn"><table class="" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0"><tbody><tr><td class="rotCell">32501</td><td class="teamCell">BJ PENN</td><td class="selectCell"> </td><td class="selectCell"> </td><td class="selectCell"><label class=""><input class="chkbox" name="game" value="826411_206_4_0_155_MU" type="checkbox">+155</label></td></tr><tr><td class="rotCell">32502</td><td class="teamCell">GEORGES ST PIERRE</td><td class="selectCell"> </td><td class="selectCell"> </td><td class="selectCell"><label class=""><input class="chkbox" name="game" value="826411_206_5_0_-185_MU" type="checkbox">-185</label></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr><tr class="oddRow"><td class="leftColumn"><small>8:00 PM</small></td><td class="rightColumn"><table class="" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0"><tbody><tr><td class="rotCell">32503</td><td class="teamCell">THIAGO SILVA</td><td class="selectCell"> </td><td class="selectCell"> </td><td class="selectCell"><label class=""><input class="chkbox" name="game" value="826413_206_4_0_210_MU" type="checkbox">+210</label></td></tr><tr><td class="rotCell">32504</td><td class="teamCell">LYOTO MACHIDA</td><td class="selectCell"> </td><td class="selectCell"> </td><td class="selectCell"><label class=""><input class="chkbox" name="game" value="826413_206_5_0_-260_MU" type="checkbox">-260</label></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr><tr class="evenRow"><td class="leftColumn"><small>7:00 PM</small></td><td class="rightColumn"><table class="" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0"><tbody><tr><td class="rotCell">32505</td><td class="teamCell">JON JONES</td><td class="selectCell"> </td><td class="selectCell"> </td><td class="selectCell"><label 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class=""><input class="chkbox" name="game" value="845422_206_5_0_-320_MU" type="checkbox">-320</label></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr><tr class="evenRow"><td class="leftColumn"><small>7:00 PM</small></td><td class="rightColumn"><table class="" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0"><tbody><tr><td class="rotCell">32509</td><td class="teamCell">CLAY GUIDA</td><td class="selectCell"> </td><td class="selectCell"> </td><td class="selectCell"><label class=""><input class="chkbox" name="game" value="845423_206_4_0_-105_MU" type="checkbox">-105</label></td></tr><tr><td class="rotCell">32510</td><td class="teamCell">NATE DIAZ</td><td class="selectCell"> </td><td class="selectCell"> </td><td class="selectCell"><label class=""><input class="chkbox" name="game" value="845423_206_5_0_-125_MU" type="checkbox">-125</label></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr><tr class="oddRow"><td class="leftColumn"><small>5:30 PM</small></td><td class="rightColumn"><table class="" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0"><tbody><tr><td class="rotCell">32511</td><td class="teamCell">AKIHIRO GONO</td><td class="selectCell"> </td><td class="selectCell"> </td><td class="selectCell"><label class=""><input class="chkbox" name="game" value="845424_206_4_0_450_MU" type="checkbox">+450</label></td></tr><tr><td class="rotCell">32512</td><td class="teamCell">JON FITCH</td><td class="selectCell"> </td><td class="selectCell"> </td><td class="selectCell"><label class=""><input class="chkbox" name="game" value="845424_206_5_0_-600_MU" type="checkbox">-600</label></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr><tr class="evenRow"><td class="leftColumn"><small>5:00 PM</small></td><td class="rightColumn"><table class="" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0"><tbody><tr><td class="rotCell">32513</td><td class="teamCell">MANNY GAMBURYAN</td><td class="selectCell"> </td><td class="selectCell"> </td><td class="selectCell"><label class=""><input class="chkbox" name="game" value="845425_206_4_0_-105_MU" type="checkbox">-105</label></td></tr><tr><td class="rotCell">32514</td><td class="teamCell">THIAGO TAVARES</td><td class="selectCell"> </td><td class="selectCell"> </td><td class="selectCell"><label class=""><input class="chkbox" name="game" value="845425_206_5_0_-125_MU" type="checkbox">-125</label></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr><tr class="oddRow"><td class="leftColumn"><small>4:00 PM</small></td><td class="rightColumn"><table class="" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0"><tbody><tr><td class="rotCell">32515</td><td class="teamCell">JOHN HOWARD</td><td class="selectCell"> </td><td class="selectCell"> </td><td class="selectCell"><label class=""><input class="chkbox" name="game" value="845428_206_4_0_285_MU" type="checkbox">+285</label></td></tr><tr><td class="rotCell">32516</td><td class="teamCell">CHRIS WILSON</td><td class="selectCell"> </td><td class="selectCell"> </td><td class="selectCell"><label class=""><input class="chkbox" name="game" value="845428_206_5_0_-355_MU" 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CRAMER</td><td class="selectCell"> </td><td class="selectCell"> </td><td class="selectCell"><label class=""><input class="chkbox" name="game" value="845430_206_4_0_145_MU" type="checkbox">+145</label></td></tr><tr><td class="rotCell">32520</td><td class="teamCell">MATT ARROYO</td><td class="selectCell"> </td><td class="selectCell"> </td><td class="selectCell"><label class=""><input class="chkbox" name="game" value="845430_206_5_0_-175_MU" type="checkbox">-175</label></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table>

Sammy Meatballs · Jan 27, 2009

bjmaviks yeah i think u may be right--

Gsp is more athletic and penn has to end this early, if not he will get pissed and GSP takes over--

bvmajik · Jan 27, 2009

anyone have thoughts on the rest of the huge card?

mcdrewcarey187 · Jan 27, 2009

bvmajik said:
anyone have thoughts on the rest of the huge card?

machida by dec Diaz by submission 2nd rd

Sammy Meatballs · Jan 27, 2009

how about FITCH? he cant be knocked out, shouldnt he beat GOMEZ?

mogo · Jan 27, 2009

[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]UFC 94 Odds[/FONT]

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</td> </tr> <tr> <td bgcolor="#000000">G St Pierre</td> <td bgcolor="#000000">

-185

</td> <td bgcolor="#000000">

-185

</td> <td bgcolor="#000000">

-175

</td> <td bgcolor="#000000">

-189

</td> <td bgcolor="#000000">

-175

</td> </tr> <tr> <td bgcolor="#000000">BJ Penn</td> <td bgcolor="#000000">

+160

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+155

</td> <td bgcolor="#000000">

+135

</td> <td bgcolor="#000000">

+137

</td> <td bgcolor="#000000">

+145

</td> </tr> <tr> <td bgcolor="#000000">
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</td> <td bgcolor="#000000">
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</td> <td bgcolor="#000000">
</td> </tr> <tr> <td bgcolor="#000000">Thiago Silva</td> <td bgcolor="#000000">

+210

</td> <td bgcolor="#000000">

+210

</td> <td bgcolor="#000000">

+200

</td> <td bgcolor="#000000">
</td> <td bgcolor="#000000">

+185

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-250

</td> <td bgcolor="#000000">

-260

</td> <td bgcolor="#000000">

-300

</td> <td bgcolor="#000000">
</td> <td bgcolor="#000000">

-255

</td> </tr> <tr> <td bgcolor="#000000">
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</td> </tr> <tr> <td bgcolor="#000000">Stephan Bonnar</td> <td bgcolor="#000000">

-160

</td> <td bgcolor="#000000">

-175

</td> <td bgcolor="#000000">

-175

</td> <td bgcolor="#000000">
</td> <td bgcolor="#000000">

-185

</td> </tr> <tr> <td bgcolor="#000000">Jon Jones</td> <td bgcolor="#000000">

+140

</td> <td bgcolor="#000000">

+145

</td> <td bgcolor="#000000">

+135

</td> <td bgcolor="#000000">
</td> <td bgcolor="#000000">

+145

</td> </tr> <tr> <td bgcolor="#000000">
</td> <td bgcolor="#000000">
</td> <td bgcolor="#000000">
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</td> <td bgcolor="#000000">
</td> <td bgcolor="#000000">
</td> </tr> <tr> <td bgcolor="#000000">Clay Guida</td> <td bgcolor="#000000">
</td> <td bgcolor="#000000">

-105

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even

</td> </tr> <tr> <td bgcolor="#000000">Nathan Diaz</td> <td bgcolor="#000000">
</td> <td bgcolor="#000000">

-125

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-130

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[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]UFC 94 Odds[/FONT]

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</td> <td bgcolor="#000000">
</td> </tr> <tr> <td bgcolor="#000000">Ma Gamburyan</td> <td bgcolor="#000000">
</td> <td bgcolor="#000000">

-105

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</td> <td bgcolor="#000000">

even

</td> </tr> <tr> <td bgcolor="#000000">Thiago Tavares</td> <td bgcolor="#000000">
</td> <td bgcolor="#000000">

-125

</td> <td bgcolor="#000000">
</td> <td bgcolor="#000000">
</td> <td bgcolor="#000000">

-130

</td> </tr> <tr> <td bgcolor="#000000">
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</td> <td bgcolor="#000000">
</td> <td bgcolor="#000000">
</td> <td bgcolor="#000000">
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</td> </tr> <tr> <td bgcolor="#000000">Christian Wellisch</td> <td bgcolor="#000000">
</td> <td bgcolor="#000000">

+215

</td> <td bgcolor="#000000">
</td> <td bgcolor="#000000">
</td> <td bgcolor="#000000">

+190

</td> </tr> <tr> <td bgcolor="#000000">Jake O Brien</td> <td bgcolor="#000000">
</td> <td bgcolor="#000000">

-275

</td> <td bgcolor="#000000">
</td> <td bgcolor="#000000">
</td> <td bgcolor="#000000">

-240

</td> </tr> <tr> <td bgcolor="#000000">
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</td> <td bgcolor="#000000">
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</td> <td bgcolor="#000000">
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</td> <td bgcolor="#000000">

+145

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</td> <td bgcolor="#000000">
</td> <td bgcolor="#000000">

+150

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</td> <td bgcolor="#000000">

-175

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</td> <td bgcolor="#000000">

-180

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</td> <td bgcolor="#000000">

+260

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</td> <td bgcolor="#000000">

+250

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-320

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-325

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</td> <td bgcolor="#000000">

+450

</td> <td bgcolor="#000000">
</td> <td bgcolor="#000000">
</td> <td bgcolor="#000000">

+400

</td> </tr> <tr> <td bgcolor="#000000">Jon Fitch</td> <td bgcolor="#000000">
</td> <td bgcolor="#000000">

-600

</td> <td bgcolor="#000000">
</td> <td bgcolor="#000000">
</td> <td bgcolor="#000000">

-600

</td> </tr> <tr> <td bgcolor="#000000">
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</td> <td bgcolor="#000000">
</td> <td bgcolor="#000000">
</td> <td bgcolor="#000000">
</td> </tr> <tr> <td bgcolor="#000000">Chris Wilson</td> <td bgcolor="#000000">
</td> <td bgcolor="#000000">

-355

</td> <td bgcolor="#000000">
</td> <td bgcolor="#000000">
</td> <td bgcolor="#000000">

-330

</td> </tr> <tr> <td bgcolor="#000000">John Howard</td> <td bgcolor="#000000">
</td> <td bgcolor="#000000">

+285

</td> <td bgcolor="#000000">
</td> <td bgcolor="#000000">
</td> <td bgcolor="#000000">

+260

</td></tr></tbody></table>

mcdrewcarey187 · Jan 27, 2009

Sammy Meatballs said:
how about FITCH? he cant be knocked out, shouldnt he beat GOMEZ?

why would you wanna lay -600?

mcdrewcarey187 · Jan 27, 2009

Take Diaz Machida and Penn and win money

Sammy Meatballs · Jan 27, 2009

mcdrewcarey187 said:
why would you wanna lay -600?

i love juice

Sammy Meatballs · Jan 27, 2009

mcdrewcarey187 said:
Take Diaz Machida and Penn and win money

i like guida he is an animal,

is the diaz guy going to sumbmit him?

mcdrewcarey187 · Jan 27, 2009

Sammy Meatballs said:
i like guida he is an animal,

is the diaz guy going to sumbmit him?

yes

Pincher · Jan 27, 2009

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side notes...Sammy is that a pic of you? (helping me to visualize) ....and Mcdrew.. Same question...

and no, there is no gayish imagery stuff going on...ok maybe not...<o

></o

>

mcdrewcarey187 · Jan 28, 2009

Pincher said:
<link rel="File-List" href="file:///C:%5CDOCUME%7E1%5COwner%5CLOCALS%7E1%5CTemp%5Cmsohtmlclip1%5C01%5Cclip_filelist.xml"><link rel="themeData" href="file:///C:%5CDOCUME%7E1%5COwner%5CLOCALS%7E1%5CTemp%5Cmsohtmlclip1%5C01%5Cclip_themedata.thmx"><link rel="colorSchemeMapping" href="file:///C:%5CDOCUME%7E1%5COwner%5CLOCALS%7E1%5CTemp%5Cmsohtmlclip1%5C01%5Cclip_colorschememapping.xml"><style>  </style> I have thoughts on a couple fights (not gsp vs Bj ) and will chime in tomorrow...

side notes...Sammy is that a pic of you? (helping me to visualize) ....and Mcdrew.. Same question...

and no, there is no gayish imagery stuff going on...ok maybe not...<o>></o>>

no I found it on here.

Sammy Meatballs · Jan 28, 2009

pinch- no its no a pic of me, i am better looking, fitter-

People tell me I look like Prince, i dont know if thats a good thing, a better looking version of Prince, hows that and not skinny like him- 6 feet 180 pounds, 36 inch vertical and run a 4.6 second 40 yard dash and a 10.9 100 metre in high school back in the day

Pincher · Jan 28, 2009

lol you'd be a hit at the combine!!

Pincher · Jan 28, 2009

Mcdrew...I have a buddy that looks a lot like the pic...I actually sent yours to him...

mcdrewcarey187 · Jan 28, 2009

Pincher said:
Mcdrew...I have a buddy that looks a lot like the pic...I actually sent yours to him...

nice

Hawaiiguy · Jan 28, 2009

YoungLansky and other MMA followers....

Discuss BJPenn and St. Pierre this Saturday......

I am not that into MMA, but tend to watch quite a few fights since friends are always coming over to watch......

Hilo Hawaii native BJ Penn has made me some cash in his last 3 or 4 fights......

However, I think laying the wood at -165 with St. Pierre might be the way to go this Saturday......

I think St. Pierre wins in a decision .....Penn just doesnt have the endurance ........

Thoughts?:cheers:

Hawaiiguy · Jan 28, 2009

ah lmao, this has been thoroughly discussed

........ok CTG needs a forum specifically for MMA......didnt realize it was here in south pacific, chess, cricket forum........

mogo · Jan 28, 2009

Hawaiiguy said:
ah lmao, this has been thoroughly discussed

........ok CTG needs a forum specifically for MMA......didnt realize it was here in south pacific, chess, cricket forum........

:36_11_6:

maybe we could get a MOD to update the title of this subforum to say "Golf, Tennis, Racing, MMA/Boxing, Horses, South Pacific, etc..." :shake:

mogo · Jan 28, 2009

ohhh and speaking of YoungLanksy, it looks like his boy Houston Alexander is being given another shot at UFC 98....

Houston Alexander returns at UFC 98 against Andre Gusmao

Sammy Meatballs · Jan 28, 2009

Houston alexander is the worst ground fighter ever, once he hits the ground the fight is over he doesent get back up

Skullshifter · Jan 28, 2009

some stats to consider

-BJ is 1-2 at UFC Welter Division.
- BJ is 0-1-1 in matches that go 5 rounds.
-GSP has 7 first round stoppages
-GSP's only 2 losses are first round stoppages.
-GSP any fight going past rd. 1 he is 10-0
- BJ in fights that go the distance is 3-3-1

what I get from that is BJ is gonna have to pull off some Rocky Balboa maneuvers here to get a win. I know anything can happen but the odds look to be stacked in GSP's favor.

Then theres the 3 inch reach advantage, plus the obvious strength, size, speed and endurance factors.

If the past is any indicator BJ's only hope is to win it in the 1st round. Once the first five minutes are up hes sunk.

Sammy Meatballs · Jan 28, 2009

Seeing PENN on TV, I met GSP in person he is a thick guy, I dont think penn can outwrestle him or push him away--

however Skullshifter you bring an excellent point--

If you play PENN -- Play him to win in 1st round by TKo or stoppage---

Just to cover maybe take PENN in round 2 in case he dominates, hurts GSP and then finishes him in round 2----

I also believe if PEnn does this it should be within the first 2 rounds----

GSP losses were first round losses, if GSP gets rolling and the longer this match goes, I think GSP wins it..

For some reason I cant get the fact out of my head that GSP is training way harder than PENN and with better world class talent and facilities. His strength conditioned coach is very good and GSP is going all around the world to train.
I can see an improved GSP for this fight--
GSP says he has a good gameplan, but a gameplan can be quickly negated if he is hit hard by PENN and wounded--

PENN to win 1st round PROP
Penn to win 2nd round PROP

ANY THOUGHTS? I think this is worth the shot?

Sammy Meatballs · Jan 28, 2009

Also what do you guys think about throwing a Token $100 bet on this bet??

I wonder if its a possibility that DANA if the fight is close calls it a DRAW? ARe Draws common in the UFC? Has there ever been a DRAW in the UFC?
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</td><td nowrap="nowrap"><input id="editx" name="M1_6" size="4" maxlength="5"> +7000 </td><td nowrap="nowrap">
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</td></tr><tr style="height: 28px;" bgcolor="#f6f6f6" valign="top"><td nowrap="nowrap">11:59PM (EST) </td><td nowrap="nowrap">114</td><td nowrap="nowrap">Fight not a draw

It would be nice to make $7000 on this fight if it was a DRAW-
OR are they instructed to give the decision to one fighter? I dont think I ever seen a draw yet?
</td><td nowrap="nowrap">
</td><td nowrap="nowrap"><input id="editx" name="M2_6" size="4" maxlength="5"> -18500 </td><td nowrap="nowrap">
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Skullshifter · Jan 28, 2009

there are draws, but usually only when a guy has been deducted points. i.e Tito grabbed fence, was deducted a point so the scorecard read: 10/9 Tito, 10/9 Rashad and 9/9(would have been Tito's had he not been deducted.

I'm not sure if an early ko bet for Bj is feasible b/c I think his standup advantage has been a little overdone. he did finish Sherk but before that his last ko/tko was back in 2002. I def think GSP has it but am probably not going to bet.

Sammy Meatballs · Jan 28, 2009

Skull- you may be right, how can penn be so dominant standing? He is shorter has a reach disadvantage also--
I am not sure how they feel he has such good striking--

it took him a while to finish Sherk, and sherk is a midget

Skullshifter · Jan 28, 2009

I guess he has good standup , but doesn't have real KO power , and he definitely hasn't shown the cardio to keep up with GSP's pace for 5 rounds. I just picture Penns last fight at Welterweight, he got crucifixed by Matt hughes and pummeled til the ref stepped in. GSP is Matt hughes and then some, so I don't think this fight will even live up to the hype. But in mma as weve learned anything can happen.

Sammy Meatballs · Jan 28, 2009

Prob right, Penn is talking a lot of shit-

I saw an interview with GSP that he says he will break down PENN mentallly--

I think IMO that PENN's camp will not have PENN ready with a good gameplan, they seem to have bought into the hype that PENN is a brawler and will make GSp quit. THey seem to think that PENN is just stronger and GSP is soft.

IN GSP camp they are not taking BJ lightly, GSP is training like a maniac, when he is confident he usually wins his fights---

Bj is talking like he will just go in there and poung GSp into a pulp.

INteresting a lot of WEC fighters and others are predicting a win by PENN- Although that means nothing--

i guess PENN is good, but only good for a few rounds as he tires--

Vs MATT HUGHES he tired out, I agree he will tire, it does not matter how much cardio you do.

I am like Bj PENN, I am explosive but even if I RUn, I always have trouble with cardio, I can go hard, but dont have long term endurance. Some people just dont have the endurance and cardio.
ALthough from what i hear PENN is in shape for this fight--

Usually when these hype matches happen, fights are boring, crowd is booing, and if that happens GSP wins hands down. PENN needs a scramble fight to happen where he has GSP backing up--

I have a feeling GSP kicks are going to be the difference here. He has good kicks, and PENN has no defense for LEG KICKS--

I get this feelign PENN is relying on totally overwhelming GSP and making this a brawl-

If this does not work I agree PENN loses--

What I find absolutely crazy, is that the GSP loss vs SERRA was magnified so much and given so much importance. Maybe because GSP was suppposed to not lose for years in that division and he lost to a short stocky fighter--

However the fact is people called out GSP for being soft after that fight- GSP probably had a lot of distractions with bitches, he lives in Montreal and every whore in Vegas was probably all over him also, and he is a sensitive guy so if he was dating that Octagon GIRL, she was probably banging half of the UFC fighters and broke GSP's heart? This is likely what distracted GSP after he won the belt off Hughes.

Now from what I understand GSP is not seriously dating any chicks, other than the odd super hot French bitch he probably has an Exlusive FUCK ONLY and NO EMOTIONAL Relationship with.

Now GSP was told to abstain from sex before big fights, and he asked the trainers if that included jerking off? AT least he will not be mentally affected by jerking off?

What I find astonishing is that PENN as Skullshaker said, he dominated Hughes in round 1 and then got absolutely pummeled by Hughes as he tired. They can say he tired, but where is the Heart there? Where was the heart in round 2 and round 3 vs GSP?
I dont know if we can call Bj the best heart in the game, because he just quit vs Hughes also, he got pummeled into submission by an aging fighter.

I see Penn as throwing punches, I have a feeling GSP will do what Forrest Griffin did and throw low leg kicks all day at PENN and hurt his leg much like Rampage's leg was fucked up by Griffin kicks. PENN just stands there and doesent try to block low leg kicks.

This could be a kickboxing fight where GSP has both kicks and punches and PENN just throws punches all match long-
I could see PENN's leg swelling and taking a beating from the GSP kicks.

kushBsmokin · Jan 28, 2009

Skullshifter said:
I guess he has good standup , but doesn't have real KO power , and he definitely hasn't shown the cardio to keep up with GSP's pace for 5 rounds. I just picture Penns last fight at Welterweight, he got crucifixed by Matt hughes and pummeled til the ref stepped in. GSP is Matt hughes and then some, so I don't think this fight will even live up to the hype. But in mma as weve learned anything can happen.

Did u actually watch the whole fight? Did u watch the first fight between Penn and Hughes?

kushBsmokin · Jan 28, 2009

Skullshifter said:
some stats to consider

-BJ is 1-2 at UFC Welter Division.
- BJ is 0-1-1 in matches that go 5 rounds.
-GSP has 7 first round stoppages
-GSP's only 2 losses are first round stoppages.
-GSP any fight going past rd. 1 he is 10-0
- BJ in fights that go the distance is 3-3-1

what I get from that is BJ is gonna have to pull off some Rocky Balboa maneuvers here to get a win. I know anything can happen but the odds look to be stacked in GSP's favor.

Then theres the 3 inch reach advantage, plus the obvious strength, size, speed and endurance factors.

If the past is any indicator BJ's only hope is to win it in the 1st round. Once the first five minutes are up hes sunk.

opcorn:

Sammy Meatballs · Jan 28, 2009

Kush- He did dominated HUGHES badly in 1st round, almost finished him with a submission right.

No doubts PENN would kill Hughes in a rematch. However what does concern is when Penn tires he is not the same fighter, I cant believe he lost to Hughes after that first round, he was schooling Hughes--

The thing is fighting Sherk, Daddy Stevenson is one thing, but he will tire more, in a 5 round fight vs GSP, GSP will make him work harder, and just a more physical fighter than can wear him down more.

I dont see Penn being effective after 4th round and 5th round if it goes that far--

I just dont think a guy can have good cardio, you either have it or you don't?

Look at Liddell, he never had it, and never will.

I am not impressed with Penn jogging, and on one clip when he was sparring, he looked so gassed, that is a concern, when this guy tires he is not the same fighter and turns into a SHOGUN kind of, with little attack and looks like he is in slow motion.

kushBsmokin · Jan 28, 2009

I dont think BJ can win a decision vs GSP in a 5 rd fight. If he wins it will be early.

sammy, u r right in that some fighters just dont have cardio. But at the same time, some fighters just dont have the skills to finish good opponents. Im not saying GSP cant stop BJ, but that BJ has shown the ability to finish fights early.

kushBsmokin · Jan 28, 2009

Legendary BJJ Trainers Handicap GSP-Penn 2
Wednesday, January 28, 2009
Marcelo Alonso
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Even in the Brazilian jiu-jitsu world, the UFC 94 main event between welterweight champion Georges St. Pierre and lightweight king B.J. Penn this Saturday at the MGM Grand Garden Arena in Las Vegas has sparked heated debate.

When they fought at UFC 58 three years ago in a match the French Canadian took by split decision, it was believed that Penn had a clear advantage on the ground. St. Pierre was thought to have a decided edge in conditioning. As they barrel towards their rematch, those lines seem far more blurred, as Penn vows to enter the cage in the best shape of his life and St. Pierre carries in his recently earned BJJ black belt.

Jefferson Teixeira -- the Gracie Barra jiu-jitsu instructor who helped St. Pierre train on multiple occasions in Brazil -- and Andre Pederneiras -- the Nova Uniao founder who has welcomed Penn to his academy hundreds of times since 1997 -- have different views on the UFC’s first superfight of 2009.

“I believe GSP will take some advantage standing up in the first rounds and then take him down and beat him on the ground,” Teixeira said.

Pederneiras disagrees.

“B.J. already exchanged punches with UFC light heavyweight contender Lyoto Machida and did not get knocked out,” he said. “He’s already beaten some of the best Brazilian [jiu-jitsu] black belts in his weight division. He also has amazing wrestling skills, so if B.J. is in good shape, I don’t see how he could lose this fight.”

Both instructors agree Penn and St. Pierre are blessed with extreme talent. However, their tunes change when discussion turns to the quality of their jiu-jitsu.

“I haven’t followed B.J.’s jiu-jitsu training, but I can say St. Pierre is in great shape,” Teixeira said. “The last time they fought, he was superior and won by decision. From what I saw here at Gracie Barra, I predict he will win again. Black belt for black belt, we cannot forget that GSP trains in the No. 1 jiu-jitsu academy in the world.”

Pederneiras counters that claim.

  “Maybe Jefferson doesn’t remember that GSP was tapped out by [Nova Uniao’s top lightweight black belt] Leo Santos in less than one minute with a flying armbar in ADCC in 2005,” he said.

Pederneiras respects St. Pierre and even welcomed him into his academy the last time the UFC welterweight titleholder visited Brazil.

“I have nothing against GSP,” Pederneiras said. “Actually, he’s an amazing person who also trained with Wagnney Fabiano [the brother of the aforementioned Leo Santos] in Canada, so he’s welcome here, too. We have to remember that there’s a big difference between a black belt and a world jiu-jitsu champion. B.J. was the first non-Brazilian to get a gold medal in the black belt [division] in 2000, at a time when all the top guys competed in the event. His ground game is definitely above the average [black belt].”

Teixeira was impressed with St. Pierre’s growth in the 10 months between stops in Brazil. The 27-year-old St. Pierre was awarded his black belt by Gracie Barra’s Canada representative, Bruno Fernandes.

“I got really impressed by his amazing evolution, compared with the last time he came here as a brown belt in 2007,” Teixeira said. “He definitely deserved the black belt.”

Pederneiras has equally fond memories of Penn.

“I saw he was a special athlete the first time he came to train in my academy with his brothers in ’97,” he said. “Even being a blue belt, he was so flexible that many of my black belts couldn’t pass his guard.”

Sometimes, that flexibility seemed to defy the bounds of believability.

“One time after training, he was reading a magazine with his legs crossed,” Pederneiras said. “He decided to scratch his ear with his foot and kept both hands holding the magazine. He’s definitely not an ordinary person."

Skullshifter · Jan 28, 2009

kushBsmokin said:
Did u actually watch the whole fight? Did u watch the first fight between Penn and Hughes?

I did watch his one welter victory, hats off to him if he wins but i don't see it. How about you you lay $ on Penn and I'll do the same on GSP. then after you can gloat or vice versa.

Hawaiiguy · Jan 28, 2009

skull, sammy great reads and input........

i hate to bet against a hawaiian, but i like money, gonna lay a little wood for a small bet......

Skullshifter · Jan 28, 2009

Hawaiiguy said:
skull, sammy great reads and input........

i hate to bet against a hawaiian, but i like money, gonna lay a little wood for a small bet......

crazy, you better keep that secret lol. I am not betting ive decided, as much as my gut tells me GSP you just never know. BJ's conditioning is the X-factor for me, when he's not gassed he's a world beater. maybe i'll do a small parlay, Machida's a sure bet as any!

kushBsmokin · Jan 29, 2009

Skullshifter said:
I did watch his one welter victory, hats off to him if he wins but i don't see it. How about you you lay $ on Penn and I'll do the same on GSP. then after you can gloat or vice versa.

Im not sure im betting BJ yet. If he wins, I wont be here gloating or happy that anyone lost $. I just believe the value is on his side, even though he still may lose.

ahitspat · Jan 29, 2009

added dong the stun gun for 2.5 u

bvmajik · Jan 29, 2009

i smell two upsets on this card... i was curious if anyone is feeling the same?

will post closer to sat.

mogo · Jan 29, 2009

Performify's Picks for "UFC 94: St. Pierre vs. Penn II"

UFC 94 is creatively titled "St. Pierre vs. Penn II," but the UFC should have recycled the name from UFC 17 as the underlying theme for this event is best described as "Redemption;" fully half of the 20 fighters on the card are coming off of losses.

In fact, of the 10 fighters holding down the undercard, only UFC rookie John Howard doesn't come into the event fresh off a loss. Additionally, no less than four of the fighters on the card -- Thiago Silva, Karo Parisyan, Stephan Bonnar and Dan Cramer -- are returning from serious injuries.

And in the heavily promoted and eagerly anticipated main event, while both Georges St. Pierre and B.J. Penn are world-class mixed martial artists at the top of their game, both are looking for redemption in their own way. Penn looks to shed the public perception that he lacks cardio and focus in training; St. Pierre looks to prove that he deserved the close split-decision victory he edged out the last time the two faced off.

Results of 4-1 for +2.8 units on UFC 93 brings the running total for my public predictions since UFC 75 to 68-51 for +20.925 units.

As usual, except where otherwise indicated, all lines are current market lines from MMAjunkie.com's recommended sportsbook, Bodog. It's easy to open an account at Bodog; you can fund your Bodog account with as little as $25 and bet as little as $1 on fights. Until you've experienced the added excitement of betting on MMA, you really haven't watched MMA. Having your heart race when "your" fighter steps into the cage -- even if you've only got a few dollars in play -- is a feeling like none other. (But you should only wager you'd feel comfortable losing. Keep it fun.)

If you're interested in learning more about betting on MMA, be sure to check out our MMAjunkie.com MMA Wagering Guide series, which allows even the most novice bettor to be a long-term winner wagering on MMA. You can also stay up to date with the latest MMA and UFC odds directly via our new UFC Odds page.

George St. Pierre -180 (via Bookmaker) vs. BJ Penn +150

This eagerly awaited historic rematch is a fan's dream. "Baby Jay" Penn, former welterweight champion and current lightweight champion, heads back to his "natural" weight to finally rematch Georges "Rush" St. Pierre, the reigning UFC welterweight champion who is widely regarded as one of the most complete mixed martial artists on the planet.

Their previous encounter, at UFC 58 in March 2006, remains one of MMA's most divisive fights among hardcore fans. Look at the emotionally charged threads active in our MMA Forums for proof (and don't forget to vote in the poll to pick a winner while you're there). At UFC 58 Penn dominated St. Pierre standing in the first round. St. Pierre, though, was exacerbated by an inadvertent eye poke that left him unable to see out of one eye for much of the first round. Penn, notorious for suspect conditioning, spent most of his gas tank in the first round, and St. Pierre did just enough to edge a split decision; one judge saw the fight for Penn, 29-28, while two others saw the contest for St. Pierre, 29-28. The fight was so close that most agree that a single late takedown by St. Pierre in the third round was responsible for stealing the round and securing the split decision.

The two return to settle the score from their previous close encounter, and despite the emotional arguments on both sides, we can all agree that regardless if our favorite wins or loses here, we hopefully get a clear-cut winner and not another close split decision that will light up the forums again.

St. Pierre (17-2 MMA, 11-2 UFC) is widely regarded as one of the top pound-for-pound fighters in the world, and he has shown marked improvement in every area since winning the split decision over Penn. Since the two last faced off, St. Pierre has grown to be perhaps MMA's most complete fighter. After dominant victories over Josh Koscheck and Jon Fitch, he has arguably become MMA's best wrestler. "Rush" has also improved his Muay Thai skills markedly, has earned his black belt in Brazilian jiu jitsu (under the highly regarded Bruno Fernandes), and has joined one of MMA's best training camps, Greg Jackson's MMA.

Since 2005, St. Pierre is 9-1 in the octagon, and his record is only blemished by an anomalous loss to Matt Serra at UFC 69. In the fight, St. Pierre was caught with a looping shot behind his ear, throwing off his balance. Rather than taking the fight to the ground and trying to recover, St. Pierre attempted to stay standing, where he was quickly pounded out by the significant underdog. St. Pierre avenged the loss in a one-sided rematch at UFC 83 in 2008.

St. Pierre has grown into the role of one of MMA's best through a phenomenal work ethic and an impressive fight resume consisting of only two losses, both avenged decisively. Penn, on the other hand, is essentially the polar opposite; he's widely regarded as one of the great natural talents in MMA, but a legendary lack of work ethic and a spotty resume (three losses in four fights from 2005 to 2006) have led some to question his ability to compete at the top level of modern MMA.

Penn will look to silence those critics on Saturday night. A decisive win over St. Pierre will, without question, cement his legacy as one of the best in MMA history and should silence hosts of critics who question his heart and his commitment to training. At the same time, St. Pierre has a lot riding on the fight as well. He needs to silence those critical of his split-decision victory over Penn as well as put to bed the lingering ghosts of his brutal beating at the hands of Serra. Still, in my opinion, despite the fact that only St. Pierre's welterweight title is on the line for this fight, I believe Penn actually has the most to prove.

After consecutive losses in the organization in 2006, Penn (13-4-1 MMA, 9-3-1 UFC) has been reborn in the UFC's lightweight division. He's rebounded from the disappointing 2006 losses to St. Pierre and Hughes by stopping Jens Pulver, Joe Stevenson and then Sean Sherk, the latter fight to claim the UFC's lightweight title. Penn's legions of fans are quick to defend his 2006 losses, and it is important as a handicapper to evaluate each fight in context. As previously mentioned, the previous meeting between these two was a close split-decision loss for Penn, which certainly should be evaluated at a different level compared to a decisive victory (say, St. Pierre's dominant performance besting Fitch).

Likewise, Penn's most recent fight against Hughes deserves additional consideration as a handicapper. Regardless of your opinion on what happened, the fight wasn't as one-sided as the outcome would indicate. Penn did decisively win both the first and second rounds of that fight, and the tone of the fight changed significantly in the third round. Many point to the third round as another byproduct of Penn's poor conditioning. I, however, believe Penn when he says that he suffered a rib separation with nearly two minutes left in the second round, when he stretched his body to take Hughes' back. After taking his opponent's back, Penn secured a triangle choke but was unable to finish Hughes.

After the round, Penn was unable to walk back to his corner, and he had to be assisted onto his stool. Still, Penn answered the bell for the third round. Keeping his hands low -- as if he wanted to protect his ribs -- Penn was systematically picked apart on his feet, and he dropped down to the mat less than two minutes into the round to avoid the damage. On the mat, Hughes landed several shots to Penn's ribs and was then able to pass to side control, where he forced referee "Big" John McCarthy to stop the fight by pounding Penn's face in the crucifix position.

Penn detractors will point to his legendary lack of cardio as the reason for the marked dropoff in his performance after the second round. To answer those critics, Penn literally posted a doctor's note from an independent medical professional confirming the rib injury on his website after the fight. But later, as he wrote in his excellent book "Mixed Martial Arts: the Book of Knowledge," Penn acknowledged that his lack of training and focus was ultimately responsible for the loss. Penn wrote, "I blamed the loss on a freak accident in the coming days, but I now realize that's not what happened. I lost the fight due to improper conditioning. I was in excellent cardiovascular condition, but I wasn't in perfect physical condition. The reason I say this is because I hadn't focused on being the best athlete I could every day of the year. ... My rib broke not because I was unlucky, but rather because I hadn't stayed in flawless fighting shape year-round. If I had been doing 5,000 sit-ups every day and eating healthy meals every time I sat down at the table, my rib would most likely have held fast."

Penn's written acknowledgment is a hopeful indication that he has changed his outlook on training. Unfortunately, despite Penn's words and even despite the level of access to his training camp via the "UFC Primetime" shows, Penn's actual level of focus and conditioning is still the great unanswered question coming into this fight. Penn is a perfect 3-0 since and has looked strong in all three fights. However, only the fight against Sherk went out of the second round, and that fight ended after the third. While the Sherk fight seemed to indicate that Penn's conditioning had indeed improved markedly, as Penn looked energized through a full three rounds, we still haven't seen "The Prodigy" pushed to the level that St. Pierre will undoubtedly maintain for this fight. One thing is sure; we should have a definitive answer to the question of Penn's conditioning come Saturday night.

While Penn's conditioning may be somewhat unknown, breaking down the rest of this fight is relatively straightforward. St. Pierre has a tremendous edge in wrestling, and he has the advantage in size, in strength and in Muay Thai skills. Even in the event Penn comes in well prepared to go 25 minutes, St. Pierre still has an edge in overall athleticism and in cardio. As a result, St. Pierre is also faster in the ring, both in strikes and in transitions. St. Pierre should also have the edge in intangibles; with Greg Jackson in his corner, he should have a superior game plan coming in and superior ability to change tactics between rounds.

Across the cage, Penn has the overall advantage in striking. He's perhaps the best boxer in MMA and has an iron chin. He's never been knocked down let alone knocked out in his career, and the only time he has even been finished was the aforementioned referee stoppage against Hughes at UFC 63, under the veil of injury. Penn has the overall advantage in both submission offense and defense. While St. Pierre recently earned his BJJ black belt, Penn is on another level with some of the best pure jiu-jitsu skills anywhere and numerous prestigious grappling tournament wins under his belt. Some people will argue that Penn does not translate his world-class jiu-jitsu skills into the octagon as effectively as one would expect. I disagree. Jiu jitsu isn't just about submitting your opponent. Penn's jiu-jitsu skills come into play in almost every fight -- via things like sweeps and positioning -- even in fights where he didn't win by submission.

Much has been said about the size and reach discrepancy between the two fighters. While St. Pierre is much more muscular and will have a significant weight and strength advantage on fight night (Penn doesn't really cut to reach 170, and St. Pierre cuts about 15 pounds), the height and reach advantage is not quite as significant as many seem to think. According to the tale of the tape from their first fight, St. Pierre was 5-10 with a 76-inch reach, and Penn was 5-9 with a 73-inch reach. In his fight against Sherk, Penn was listed at 5-9 with a 70-inch reach. Either way, St. Pierre definitely has a few inches of reach advantage, but it's not insurmountable.

Despite St. Pierre's edge in reach and speed, I do believe Penn will have the overall edge while the fight is standing. Penn can neutralize the reach advantage with his superior head movement and boxing skills. Penn can neutralize the speed advantage in much the same way Fedor Emelianenko approached Andrei Arlovski -- by trying to slip or block the speed shots but ultimately by being willing to absorb a jab or one-two combination as long as he gets to throw a power shot in return. In MMA, we've seen time and time again that accuracy and power plus an iron chin can generally outdo pure speed, and I expect to see that play out here.

Despite having a serious striking edge over both Hughes and Fitch on paper, St. Pierre ended up taking both opponents down consistently, and he wanted no part of Serra standing in their second bout. Penn's boxing skills, great head movement and iron chin should allow him to come out ahead in exchanges if he can close the gap and force St. Pierre to trade shots. Despite St. Pierre's great Muay Thai skills, Penn generally had the edge in the clinch in their first fight and can likely do more damage with dirty boxing inside. However, Penn has to be worried about St. Pierre's explosive takedowns and effective level changes.

As such, I expect Jackson's game plan for St. Pierre to look mostly similar to his past three victories. I expect St. Pierre to push the pace of the fight from the very beginning with the obvious intention to drag Penn into the later rounds and test his cardio. He should look to utilize his overall reach and speed advantages to keep the fight at range, and to score from outside with effective kicks and fast punches. St. Pierre will look to leverage his overall edge in athleticism and wrestling, and try to overcome Penn's great takedown defense (primarily due to his incredible flexibility) by exploding with takedowns when Penn moves forward to close the gap. I expect St. Pierre to look to put Penn on his back early and often, and to try to utilize his dominant top game to wear Penn down.

Penn needs to take St. Pierre out of his element as soon as possible. Penn will have to effectively check St. Pierre's leg kicks early and overcome the discrepancy in speed, close the gap and score with his own shots. Penn's most likely path to victory is putting St. Pierre on the defensive. If he can land power shots early and force "Rush" to retreat, he can get the fight to the ground in a dominant position where St. Pierre will be in trouble.

Penn's takedown defense isn't comprised of a superb sprawl. Instead, he more frequently allows his opponent to grab a single leg, and he then uses his incredible flexibility and balance to remain standing, where he can then try to counter the takedowns with technique or punish his opponent with dirty boxing to the point he abandons the takedown. Still, looking at St. Pierre's athleticism and wrestling skills, I think he is going to be able to put Penn on the mat early and often.

In my opinion, this fight will be determined by Penn's ability to pressure St. Pierre right away and get him off balance. If he can't put St. Pierre on the defensive right away, St. Pierre will be able to put Penn on his back. There, the fight will be determined by St. Pierre's top game vs. Penn's ability to sweep or submit from his back. Penn has the jiu jitsu and the flexibility to counter takedowns and top control early, but he desperately needs to bring in the appropriate conditioning to make St. Pierre uncomfortable on top in latter rounds.

As a handicapper, a couple factors sway me toward Penn in this fight. He's never been stopped other than the TKO to Hughes (which I believe is offset by the injury), and he has the ability to finish fights with his powerful and accurate striking as well as his incredible technique on the ground. St. Pierre, conversely, wasn't able to finish either Fitch or Koscheck despite dominating both opponents for the full duration of both fights. I think the only likely path to a stoppage victory for St. Pierre is if Penn burns out his gas tank in the first few rounds and St. Pierre can finish him via TKO in the fourth or fifth. Otherwise, any early ending heavily favors Penn, in my opinion. However, the five-round-championship-fight format generally favors St. Pierre in going to decision since he can drop the first two rounds and still have a clear path to victory by winning the last three.

So for me, handicapping the outcome of the fight depends on evaluating Penn's cardio and the probability of an early finish. I expect Penn to have the fire to win the first and second rounds most of the time, and even if he is in optimal condition, I think St. Pierre's speed and athleticism (and the general difficulty in submitting or reversing an opponent once he beocomes slick with sweat) becomes too much for Penn in the latter rounds.

As such, in terms of a decision, I think the fight will most often be decided by who wins the third round. In their first fight, despite gassing heavily, Penn still wasn't dominated on the feet in later rounds; he lost due to St. Pierre's takedowns and ground control. Despite St. Pierre's wide range of improvements since their first bout, I think we'll see the fight play out suprisingly predictably. If Penn gets a dominant position in any of the first few rounds, he can finish. And if if Penn can come in sufficiently conditioned to edge the third round after winning the first two, I think St. Pierre cannot win the fight and will be fighting for at a draw at best, due to his likely inability to put Penn away with any significant probability unless Penn gasses completely late in the match.

So unless St. Pierre can successfully overwhelm Penn early and win one of the first two rounds with takedowns and top control -- which I don't expect with significant probability due to Penn's jiu-jitsu skills creating reversals, escapes and potential submissions -- I think St. Pierre will be looking at a 48-47 or 49-46 victory in most outcomes where he wins. Still, I think St. Pierre is walking a razor thin line in this fight, one where a single mistake in the first three rounds will cost him the entire fight. Penn, on the other hand, with his finishing ability and his comfort wherever the fight goes, won't likely lose on a single early mistake.

The current betting line puts St. Pierre at approximately a 64% favorite. I estimate the fight is closer, at a 60/40 split for St. Pierre, making the "true" line for the fight +/-150. The early line favored St. Pierre more heavily, with Penn available at up to +185. At the current odds, I think Penn at +150 is fair value and St. Pierre slightly overpriced, so my recommendation based on the current odds is Penn. If the line continues to decline, I'd look to play St. Pierre at -150 or below. But my official prediction? B.J. Penn by submission set up by strikes in the second round.

Lyoto Machida -250 (via Bookmaker) vs. Thiago Silva +200

The battle of the undefeated Brazilians -- where someone's "O" must go! Hype aside, this match is a fantastic blend of conflicting styles and techniques, and it should thrust the victor up near the top of the ladder in the UFC's crowded 205-pound division.

Brazilian born Lyoto Machida is half Japanese and half Brazilian. He holds a 13-0 MMA record, 5-0 in the UFC. Machida has a strong background in karate courtesy his father, Japanese Brazilian Shotokan karate master Yoshizo Machida. In addition to his black belt in Shotokan, Machida also holds a black belt in Brazilian jiu jitsu under Alexi Cruz.

Among Machida's 11 victories are two fights against top-tier talent: a well-publicized knockout win of Rich Franklin back in 2003, and a fight with B.J. Penn in March 2005, where Penn was fighting up two full weight classes. (Machida won a close -- and to some, controversial -- decision.) Of Machida's five fights in the UFC, only one did not go to the judges: his submission victory over Rameau Thierry Sokoudjou at UFC 79. Otherwise, Machida's UFC career is all unanimous-decision victories (Sam Hoger at UFC 67, David Heath at UFC 70, Kazuhiro Nakamura at UFC 76, and Tito Ortiz at UFC 84).

Machida is a controversial fighter with a "get in, score and get out" striking technique that significantly frustrates his opponents (and a fair share of fans) and leads to his preponderance fot unanimous-decision victories. Still, Machida has demonstrated increased aggression in his past two fights -- the early finish of Sokoudjou and two near-finishes of Ortiz in their fight. Machida's highly technical striking and absolute elusiveness has given him an overwhelming edge standing in all of his fights to date, and his skills in jiu jitsu and judo mean that he's tough to take down and control on the ground since he has a strong top game and the ability to finish via submission.

Machida comes from the background of the legendary Brazilian "Black House" training camp (now reformed as the "Nogueira and Silva Mixed Martial Arts Academy" in the States), where he trained alongside Anderson Silva, the Nogueira brothers and Paulo Filho. Additionally, here is some video from inside Machida's camp at his father's "APAM" facility in Pará, Brazil.

<center> <table> <tbody> <tr> <td> <embed src="http://blip.tv/play/Aej8cQA" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" allowscriptaccess="always" allowfullscreen="true" width="512" align="absmiddle" height="300"> </td> </tr> </tbody> </table> </center>
Thiago Silva holds a 13-0 MMA record, 4-0 in the UFC. While they share a country of birth, black belts in BJJ and undefeated records, Silva is the complete opposite of Machida in almost every other way, including style, technique and especially in method of victory. Silva is an aggressive striker with heavy hands. Twelve of his 13 wins have come by stoppage: 10 knockouts, two submissions and his only decision win was in his fourth professional fight in mid-2006. His first UFC victory was due to James Irvin suffering a knee injury. However, his subsequent three victories are all early stoppages due to strikes (Tomasz Drwal at UFC 75, Houston Alexander at UFC 78, and Antonio Mendes at UFC 84).

Silva's black belt in Brazilian jiu jitsu comes from Jorge Patino, one of the best no-gi teachers around. Silva learned his Muay Thai skills from Rafael Cordeiro and honed them training in the early days with the legendary Chute Boxe academy. He now trains with American Top Team.

These two were originally scheduled to fight at UFC 89 in October, but Silva was forced to withdraw from the fight due to a back injury suffered in training.

Silva's aggressive striking should be no match for Machida's superior technique and counter-striking ability. If anything, Silva's aggressiveness will play right into Machida's primary strength, allowing him to backpedal, counter with accurate strikes and frustrate per usual. Expect a lot of Machida backpedaling early and kicks to keep Silva at bay. Silva has shown sub-par conditioning in the past, which is likely to be exacerbated by the long layoff due to injury and the accumulated ring rust.

In a pure no-gi grappling match, Silva would likely be a small to moderate favorite, but Machida is a heavy favorite in an MMA contest. I expect a typical Machida first round of scoring from distance and frustrating his opponent, followed by Silva gassing heavily from chasing Machida around the cage. With Silva's tendency to strike wildly when gassed, I actually expect Machida to put him away in the second round, though predicting a unanimous decision win for Machida is never a dangerous thing for a prognosticator.

Stephan Bonnar -175 vs. Jon Jones +140

Stephan Bonnar (11-4 MMA, 5-3 UFC) looks to bounce back from reconstructive knee surgery that forced him out of a bout with Matt Hamill at UFC Fight Night 13 and that has kept him sidelined for more than 15 months. Bonnar is a balanced mixed martial artist with a strong boxing background as a two-time Chicago Golden Gloves champion, good Muay Thai skills courtesy the legendary Duke Roufus, and a BJJ purple belt earned under the legendary Carlson Gracie. Bonnar is on a two-fight win streak after finishing Mike Nickels and Eric Schafer following consecutive decisions to Rashad Evans and Forrest Griffin.

Jon Jones is an athletic, powerful striker who holds a 7-0 MMA record. Jones was victorious in his UFC debut at UFC 87, where he won a unanimous decision over Andre Gusmao. The 21-year-old Jones was a junior college national wrestling champion for Iowa Central Community College and has been training MMA for only 14 months. Jones showed a lot of flashy striking against Gusmao, mixing in several spinning back fists and back kicks.

Bonnar's experience and ground skills should give him the edge he needs to beat Jones. However, with limited insight into Bonnar's rehab, I'm not interested in taking a chance here. Jones couldn't finish Gusmao, so it's unlikely he can knock out Bonnar. However a stunning blow followed by a TKO stoppage by the referee isn't out of the question if Bonnar comes in at less than 100%.

Karo Parisyan -300 vs. Dong Hyun Kim +260 (via Bookmaker)

Judo black belt Karo Parisyan (18-5 MMA, 8-3 UFC) looks to rebound from a disappointing TKO loss to Thiago Alves at UFC Fight Night 13. "The Heat" has won eight of his past 10 fights with every win but one (a first-round stoppage of Nick Thompson in 2006) going to decision. Parisyan is now training with Greg Jackson's camp. He was slated to face Yoshiyuki Yoshida at UFC 88, but he pulled out of the fight the night before weigh-ins reportedly due to a case of sciatica (back or leg pain from compression or irritation of the sciatic nerve).

His Korean opponent, Dong Hyun Kim, is a fellow Judoka and holds a fourth degree black belt in judo. "Stun Gun" holds an 11-0-1 MMA record and is 2-0 in the UFC after securing a TKO victory over Jason Tan at UFC 84 and a split-decision victory over Matt Brown at UFC 88.

I'm taking the long shot here on Kim for a couple reasons. Despite Parisyan moving up to train with Greg Jackson's elite camp, I think his inability to finish fights and the fact that he'll likely be outclassed in his primary strength of Judo will be big factors. Parisyan has also seemed vulnerable in the past to strong ground and pound, and I think "Stun Gun" has the right skill set to put Parisyan on his back and pound him out. He's also coming off a back injury, which is always tough to recover from. I've also heard several rumors from traditionally reliable sources that Parisyan is coming into the fight under the cloud of another moderate injury -- all of which combines to make me think that Kim is a worthwhile underdog bet at +260, despite the long odds. I predict Kim by TKO in the second after a one-sided first.

Nate Diaz -120 vs. Clay Guida -115

Cesar Gracie disciple Nate Diaz (10-2 MMA) puts his perfect 5-0 UFC record on the line against tough veteran Clay Guida (24-9 MMA, 5-3 UFC). Both fighters last fought at UFC Fight Night 15. Diaz won a close split-decision victory over Josh Neer. Guida won an unimpressive unanimous-decision victory over Mac Danzig.

Guida is a high-energy, high-pace fighter but generally lacks the offensive skills to put his opponents away. Seven of his past 11 fights have gone to decision, and Guida has racked up an uninspiring 6-5 record in that stretch.

Diaz has an extremely dangerous guard, which completely neutralizes Guida's traditional offensive game plan of top control and moderate ground and pound. Diaz also has underrated striking and a huge reach advantage. The only place Guida isn't at a huge disadvantage is in the clinch, but Diaz can negate that edge by pulling guard if given the chance.

Look for Guida to come out with his typical frenetic pace and put Diaz up against the fence after eating a couple jabs. Look for Diaz to drag the fight to the ground however he can, where he should quickly expose Guida's below-average submission defense. I predict Diaz by submission in the first round.

Jon Fitch -600 vs. Akihiro Gono +400

In just one fight, Jon Fitch (17-3 MMA, 8-1 UFC) goes from fighting for the welterweight title to being buried on the preliminary card against heavy underdog Akihiro Gono (29-13-7 MMA, 1-1 UFC). Gono caught Tamdan McCrory in an armbar to secure a victory in his UFC debut, but he dropped a split decision to Dan Hardy at UFC 89. Gono is a great showman but is primarily a defensive fighter with adequate submission abilities from his back and decent kickboxing. However, he's significantly overmatched by Fitch's wrestling ability. Expect Fitch to drop Gono to the canvas quickly in each of the three rounds of this fight, defend the odd submission attack, and ground and pound his way to a cautious unanimous-decision victory.

The -600 line converts to an 85% win probability for Fitch, and I'd put the true odds closer to 90%. While it is a lot of chalk to lay, this is not a good spot to bet on the heavy underdog. Gono's skill set doesn't match up well with Fitch's dominant yet cautious top game. Fitch hasn't been submitted since his first professional fight, against Mike Pyle back in 2002, and there's little reason to expect Gono to pull off the longshot submission as the heavy underdog.

Thiago Tavares -135 vs. Manny Gamburyan +105

Brazilian Thiago Tavares (13-3 MMA, 3-3 UFC) looks to rebound from two straight losses against Manny Gamburyan (8-3 MMA, 2-2 UFC). Gamburyan looks to rebound as well, and he's coming back from a 12-second knockout loss to Robert Emerson at UFC 87.

Tavares is well rounded with judo, jiu jitsu and Muay Thai skills. Gamburyan shares the background in judo and jiu jitsu, but he lacks the standup skills of his opponent.

I predicted Gamburyan's loss to Emerson, but it is hard to predict this fight. While I felt Gamburyan was widely overrated after his stint on "The Ultimate Fighter 5," Tavares' two losses in a row to mid-level fighters means he's unpredictable and underperforming as well. It's hard to bet on either fighter after their recent performances, especially with the odds this close. I'll predict Gamburyan in a unanimous decision but wouldn't be surprised to see this go either way.

Chris Wilson -330 vs. John Howard +260

Team Quest fighter Chris Wilson (14-4 MMA, 1-1 UFC) enters as a heavy favorite over UFC rookie John Howard (10-4 MMA, 0-0 UFC). Howard is an explosive striker with some submission skills and will have a significant reach disadvantage to Wilson, courtesy of Wilson's 6-inch height advantage (6-1 to Howard's 5-7).

Expect Wilson to punish Howard with his Muay Thai from distance while Howard looks to get inside and box. Don't expect this fight to go to the ground; this should basically be a kickboxing match and could be the sleeper pick for Fight of the Night or Knockout of the Night honors. The current line puts Wilson as approximately a 75% favorite, and I think that's fair. It's hard to think that Howard's inexperience and significant reach disadvantage result in any value on the long underdog. I predict Wilson by TKO in the first.

Jake O'Brien -250 vs. Christian Wellisch +195

Continuing the night's underlying theme of redemption, Jake O'Brien (10-2 MMA, 3-2 UFC) looks to rebound from two consecutive losses -- both of them TKOs, against Cain Velasquez and Andrei Arlovski. AKA fighter Christian Wellisch (8-4 MMA, 2-2 UFC) looks to rebound from a first round knockout at the hands of Shane Carwin at UFC 84. O'Brien is an aggressive striker but is primarily a wrestler. Wellisch has the submission skills to threaten from his back, but most likely this fight will end up with the two slugging it out on their feet early as O'Brien looks to avoid Wellisch's submission skills and uses his wrestling to keep things standing. Both fighters are cutting down to 205 for the first time in their careers, so this fight will likely be won by whoever handles the cut better. I'm going to wait for weigh ins to make a formal prediction in this fight because if either fighter looks to have had a significantly easier cut, it should be a significant edge.

Matt Arroyo -185 vs. Dan Cramer +150

Former "TUF 6" cast member Matt Arroyo (3-2 MMA, 1-1 UFC) comes into this fight off a TKO loss to Matt Brown at The Ultimate Fighter 7 Finale. Arroyo is a submission specialist who trains at Gracie Tampa under Rob Kahn.

Dan Cramer was a cast member on "The Ultimate Fighter 7." Cramer beat Jeremiah Riggs to earn a spot on the show, then defeated Luke Zachrich in the first round of the show's tournament. But he lost to Tim Credeur in the quarterfinals. Forced to pull out of his scheduled fight against Cale Yarbrough at The Ultimate Fighter 7 Finale due to a broken collarbone, Cramer is making his professional MMA debut with this fight.

Unless Cramer has significantly advanced his skills since his stint on the show, Arroyo's edge in experience and submission skills should be sufficient to pull off this victory. I predict Arroyo by submission in the first round.

Performify's Picks for UFC 94

B.J. Penn +150 : .5 units to win .75 units
Lyoto Machida -250 : 7.5 units to win 3 units
Dong Hyun Kim +260 : .4 units to win 1.04 units
Nate Diaz -120: .6 units to win .5 units
John Fitch -600: 6 units to win 1 unit

mogo · Jan 29, 2009

well it looks like Performify is heavy only on Machida and really only likes BJ b/c the line is a bit off in his opinion...

take it for what it worth (a good writeup/summary).... :shake:

kushBsmokin · Jan 29, 2009

thanks, very insightful

CapTwo · Jan 29, 2009

for value alone, penn is the bet.

shouldnt this one be closer to a PK?

mogo · Jan 29, 2009

oh looks like i missed FITCH being a heavy play there too... even though i think fitch should win easily no more big favs for me!

sammy - thats good news for you ... u parlaying FITCH with a bunch of people i assume...?

Pincher · Jan 29, 2009

I agree with him om Machita Silva. Silva's style does fall right into Machida's wheelhouse...I watched a couple of Silva's fights (again) and he gets sloppy, even wild at times when coming forward, and as stated Machida make you pay for mistakes.

Speaking of sloppy (even though it's fun to watch) Guida is just that and getting Diaz at 1.79 aint a bad price...

I think there is room on this card to also parly 3 big favorites as well...something like Fitch, Wilson, O brien type thing that will end up pretty much as even money odds...

Such a great card. How the fuck is Fitch not on the main card? With a number 3 welterweight on almost every ranking and Gono's crazy ass entrances how was it left off??

Maybe Dana White being an asswhipe after the problems he had with Fitch and co a while back. I like what White has done for the sport, and I like that he publicy swears like a sailor in interviews, but he's a douche!

He stole my thunder on the Karo Kim fight...these are my thoughts exactly. plus how can you not go with a guy with "Dong" in his name?

Sammy Meatballs · Jan 29, 2009

waiting on the odds, going to take penn to win in round 1 or round 2----

when gsp loses it happens realy fast, and when penn wins he can win very fast--

the expert above agrees, if penns wins he will do it in the first 2 round IMO and in his opinion--

Going to go small on penn to win in round 1 or 2--

odds are likely +600 to win in either round

UFC 94: St. Pierre vs. Penn II - Saturday, January 31st

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