Performify's Picks for UFC 85
UFC 85 is aptly named "Bedlam," which is defined as "a state of extreme confusion and disorder." This could refer more to the ruckus created by the unprecedented amount of fighter substitutions than the prediction of crazy action that the UFC's marketing team was hoping to evoke. The card could also be called "Ultimate Brazil 2 - Electric Boogaloo" since the card features six fighters from Brazil; three of the five main card fights feature Brazilians, and half of the undercard fights do as well.
Before we move on to the predictions, we should update on the last round of results. UFC 84 presented another solid betting card with results of 3-2 for +6.5 units on my public picks. I won on all my high-confidence big unit plays, yet lost the two longshot underdog plays, which isn't an unexpected or unwelcome outcome. This continued success brought the recent running total for my public predictions (started after UFC 75, thanks to reader feedback) to 34-24 for +21.275 units.
As always, while I try to take the time to break down every aspect of the fights and fighters on Saturday's card, the ultimate predictions are made from a gambling perspective, meaning they attempt to assign a win probability to each side and compare that probability to the betting lines offered to find good places to
make money betting on MMA.
For those of you who haven't tried it before, I'd definitely urge you to consider
opening an account at Bodog and dropping a few bucks on your favorite fighter. Until you try it, you have no idea how much having action on a fight -- even if it's only a dollar -- enhances your enjoyment of the entire event. You can open an account with as little as $20, you can fund your account with a credit card right over the Internet, and you can literally wager as little as one dollar on a fight.
For those interested in
betting on the UFC so you can follow along and make money watching your favorite sport, you can get exact details on how to
sign up at Bodog -- or even learn how to make a bet and read a betting line -- by reading the series of articles in our
MMA Wagering Guide. It will tell you everything you need to know to get started. As always, we recommend our partner site
Bodog as the best place to place your bets.
All odds taken from
Bodog at time of writing.
Matt Hughes (-185) vs. Thiago Alves (+145)
Matt Hughes holds a ridiculous 42-6 MMA record and is 15-4 in the UFC. The 34-year-old Hughes is 2-2 in his past four, alternating wins and losses with a win over B.J. Penn at UFC 63, a loss to Georges St. Pierre at UFC 65, a win over Chris Lytle at UFC 68, and most recently a second loss to St. Pierre at UFC 79 in December 2007. The normally prolific Hughes was mostly inactive in 2007, primarily due to Hughes' position as a coach on "The Ultimate Fighter" last year. Hughes is a dominant wrestler with above-average finishing ability: only 21% of his wins have gone to decision.
Thiago "Pitbull" Alves is 24 years old, 14-3 in MMA and 7-2 in the UFC. The Brazilian fighter trains with American Top Team. Alves lost his first fight in the octagon, getting caught in a triangle by Spencer Fischer at UFC Fight Night 2 in October 2005. He rebounded with wins over Ansar Chalangov and Derrick Noble before running into John Fitch. At UFC Fight Night 5, Alves was dominated by Fitch start to finish, culminating in a loss by TKO late in the second round. Alves has rebounded from his loss to Fitch by reeling off five straight wins in the octagon: defeating John Alessio by unanimous decision; knocking out Tony DeSouza with a knee at UFC 66; defeating Kuniyoshi Hironaka by TKO at UFC Fight Night 11; TKO'ing Lytle at UFC 78, and most recently defeating Karo Parisyan by TKO at UFC Fight Night 13.
You may have noticed Alves and Hughes share a recent common opponent, both having recently defeated Chris Lytle. While Alves stopped Lytle and Hughes did not, don't read too much in to the difference. The Lytle fight was Hughes' first fight back after taking a beating at the hands (and feet) of St. Pierre at UFC 65, and Hughes smartly implemented a cautious gameplan of ground control to easily win the fight without placing himself in much danger.
This is a good time to invoke the classic cliché of "styles make fights" because this fight represents the classic mismatch of "striker vs. grappler." I expect Alves will have more trouble here than most expect. The young Brazilian has shown below-average takedown defense and very little offense from his back in the past. While Alves does hold a purple belt in Brazilian Jiu Jitsu, Hughes' strength and BJJ skills combine to give him a formidable top game, which could spell serious trouble for the "Pitbull" in this fight.
Alves certainly has a significant edge while this fight is on the feet. His Muay Thai skills are very dangerous, to the point that Alves may in fact be the best striker in the UFC's 170-pound division. However, all of Hughes' losses have been to people who have out-wrestled or out-grappled him: Penn, St. Pierre twice, and Dennis Hallman. Hughes hasn't been beaten standing except by those who can out-wrestle him to stifle his takedowns. Alves has not previously demonstrated enough in this department to predict he can keep the fight standing enough to exploit his edge in striking.
Look back to Alves' loss to Fitch two years ago -- Fitch was able to get inside on Alves almost at will, and take him down repeatedly with both single and double leg shots. While there's no question Alves will have improved his takedown defense with American Top Team in the interim, I don't expect it to have improved to the level necessary to keep the fight standing against the well-oiled takedown machine that Hughes represents.
The main concern for backing Hughes in this fight is his age, and that he's been inactive for over five months since losing to St. Pierre for the second time. Ultimately, I predict Hughes wins this fight by decision, but it's worth noting age and ring rust concerns as reasons for not making this a heavier play.
Michael Bisping (-340) vs. Jason Day (+260)
Winner of "The Ultimate Fighter 3" light heavyweight bracket, Michael Bisping is 29 years old and holds a 15-1 MMA record, 5-1 in the UFC. In his latest fight, Bisping defeated American Top Team's Charles McCarthy via doctor stoppage after McCarthy was unable to answer the bell for the second round. Prior to defeating McCarthy, Bisping won a controversial split decision over Matt Hamill at UFC 75 and lost a split decision to Rashad Evans at UFC 78. This is Bisping's second fight at middleweight.
This fight was originally set to match Bisping against Chris Leben. With Leben out due to complications from legal troubles, Bisping instead faces Jason Day. The Canadian middleweight is 29 years old and holds a 17-5 MMA record. Day made his UFC debut at UFC 83, defeating Alan Belcher by technical knockout in the very first round. Day is well rounded and athletic, and I believe he will present a decent test for Bisping. Bisping impressed in his middleweight debut against McCarthy, but faces a significant step up in competition here. Day has won his last five fights, and 10 of his past 11. His latest loss was in the TKO organization against Patrick Cote.
At the current odds, Bisping is being assigned a 77% chance of winning this fight. While there's no question Bisping should be the favorite, I think Day represents a good underdog bet here. Bisping has struggled against top-level competition, especially appearing vulnerable to submissions. Bisping was in danger of being submitted against Elvis Sinosic and in his last fight against McCarthy. Day represents a real threat to Bisping with his well-rounded attack and his submission skills, and I think the Canadian can upset "The Count" enough to make this heavy underdog a good bet. Day also utilizes his elbows effectively, so a stoppage due to a cut is also a threat. Day by submission in the second round.
Nate Marquardt (-185) vs. Thales Leites (+155)
Thales Leites is 26 years old and holds a 12-1 MMA record, 3-1 in the UFC. The young Brazilian holds wins over Ryan Jensen, Floyd Sword and Pete Sell. The lone black mark on his MMA record came in his UFC debut, a unanimous decision loss to Martin Kampmann on The Ultimate Fighter 4 Finale. Leites is a Brazilian jiu jitsu black belt and has a world-class ground game with numerous wins in jiu jitsu competitions.
Former Pancrase legend Nathan Marquardt is 29 years old and holds a 26-7-2 MMA record. Prior to coming to the UFC, Marquardt fought primarily in the Japanese Pancrase organization, where he reigned as the only seven-time King of Pancrase (the term for title-holders in the organization). Marquardt trains at Greg Jackson's impressive camp in New Mexico, alongside a bevy of top fighters, including Georges St. Pierre and Rashad Evans.
Since leaving Japan for the UFC, Marquardt has rolled off an impressive 5-1 record, with wins over Jeremy Horn, Dean Lister, Crafton Wallace, Joe Doerksen and Ivan Salaverry. Marquardt's lone loss in the UFC is to dominant middleweight champion Anderson Silva at UFC 73.
Humorously, this is the third attempted fight between Marquardt and Leites. They were first set to face off in October 2006, but the fight was canceled due to visa issues with Leites. The fight was rescheduled for UFC 81, but Leites had to withdraw with a broken hand, so Marquardt instead faced Horn.
Marquardt is in my opinion one of the most underrated fighters in the UFC. He's well rounded with great grappling skills thanks to a black belt in Brazilian Jiu Jitsu, combined with solid wresting skills and good striking. He's very strong and has excellent cardio. One reason he remains underrated is that very few of his fights have made the cut to be broadcast. Most casual fans know him best from his defeat at the hands of Silva, but given that most regard Silva among the top pound for pound fighters in the world, one can forgive Marquardt for losing to the formidable champion. Prior to losing in his title shot against Silva, Marquardt had not been defeated in almost four years.
Leites is a tough fighter with fantastic jiu jitsu, but Marquardt is likewise a great grappler and is ultimately more well rounded than his opponent. Marquardt is used to primarily fighting grapplers in the Pancrase organization, and he has the wrestling and grappling skills to control the fight on the ground while being able to defend against submissions. Standing, Marquardt should have an exploitable edge in striking. Look for Marquardt to come out and execute an excellent Greg Jackson gameplan, ultimately culminating in a unanimous decision victory for Marquardt.
Brandon Vera (-170) vs. Fabricio Werdum (+130)
Brandon "The Truth" Vera is 30 years old and holds an 8-1 MMA record, 6-1 in the UFC. Vera holds notable wins over Assuerio Silva at UFC 60 and Frank Mir at UFC 65. After an 11-month layoff due to contract disputes, Vera returned to the UFC octagon to lose a unanimous decision to Tim Sylvia at UFC 77. Vera is primarily a Muay Thai fighter, with fast and dangerous kicks. He has an underrated ground game, with a pedigree that includes wins in the Pan-American Championship and Grappler's Quest, as well as competition in the prestigious Abu-Dhabi grappling tournaments.
Brazilian Fabricio Werdum is 30 years old and holds a 10-3-1 MMA record. Werdum is 1-1 in the UFC, with a win over Gabriel Gonzaga and a loss to Andrei Arlovski. Werdum is a veteran of the defunct PRIDE organization, where he defeated tough Muay Thai striker Alistair Overeem and lost to current UFC heavyweight champion Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira. Werdum also has a win over Aleksander Emelianenko -- brother of the legendary Fedor Emelianenko -- from an organization called "2 Hot 2 Handle." Werdum holds a black belt in Brazilian Jiu Jitsu and a brown belt in Judo.
Werdum has power in his striking, but his standup lacks speed. Vera is almost exactly the opposite: he doesn't have devastating power, but he's lighting fast and accurate. Vera is undersized for a heavyweight, and he suffered in his last fight against Sylvia as a result. With a solid gameplan, Vera should be able to capitalize on his advantage in speed to win the standup game against Werdum and avoid taking the fight to the ground where Werdum has the advantage.
We've yet to see Vera take a hard hit in his short career, so it will be interesting to see what his chin is made of, assuming Werdum can test it once or twice in the fight. Look for Vera to use his quickness and his range, testing his opponent with leg kicks before beginning to mix it up with knees and high kicks later in the fight. Vera should win this fight by decision; he should be content to win on the cards and not try to get inside to finish things off, where he's in danger of being dragged to the mat and caught in a submission. However, Vera hasn't always shown the best gameplanning or ability to adapt in the cage, which makes me worried that he'll try to deliver an exciting fight at the expense of getting the win, which could backfire against someone with Werdum's power.
Unfortunately for those late to the party, a much better line was available on Vera much earlier. The line opened with Vera as only a slight favorite, and has been bet up considerably. I still think that Vera is the right side even at -170, but I'd get in now. I expect the line to continue to move against Werdum. If this climbs to Werdum +150, I'd hold off or even look at a play on the other side.
Marcus Davis (-110) vs. Mike Swick (-120)
Former professional boxer Marcus Davis holds a 14-3 MMA record and is 6-1 in the UFC. Davis lost in his UFC debut, succumbing to a technical knockout at the hands of Melvin Guillard at The Ultimate Fighter 2 Finale. Since that loss, Davis has rattled off 11 wins in a row, including six straight wins in the UFC, thanks to victories over Jess Liaudin, Paul Taylor, Jason Tan, Pete Spratt, Shonie Carter and Forrest Petz.
Davis' last three fights have all been in the UK, so he should be very comfortable overseas. "The Irish Hand Grenade" trains under noted MMA trainer and Muay Thai master Mark DellaGrotte. Davis has won either Submission or Knockout of the Night bonuses in three of his past four fights, and he'll be gunning for another dramatic finish here against Mike "Quick" Swick.
Swick is 6-1 in the UFC with an 11-2 record in professional MMA. Swick has notable wins over Josh Burkman, David Loiseau and Joe Riggs, while his two losses are against Chris Leben and Yushin Okami. Swick trains at American Kickboxing Academy under Bob Cook, Javier Mendez and David Camarillo. Swick built a reputation for aggression and quick finishes after winning his first three UFC fights in a combined time of 5:10 but has since slowed down, with his past three fights going to decision. This is Swick's second fight in the welterweight division after dropping down from middleweight.
After a strong start to his UFC career, Swick has begun to struggle a bit in his pfew. His underachieving performances in his last three fights can be partially explained away; against Loiseau, Swick injured his hand during the fight; against Burkman, Swick was cutting to 170 for the first time; Okami is an underrated force at middleweight and had a significant size and strength advantage on Swick.
Davis' southpaw stance and strong boxing background mean that, despite Swick's vaunted quickness, Davis should have the edge standing. Swick has actually struggled somewhat with southpaw fighters in his career, blaming his early-career loss to Leben on being unfamiliar with his opponent's southpaw style. Davis has also demonstrated solid wrestling and submissions. Davis has quickly evolved from a one-dimensional striker to a well-rounded mixed martial artist, while Swick hasn't appeared to develop at the same pace. I think Davis has the tools to defeat Swick here enough to make this coinflip line worth a play. Remember that this line is close for a reason; this fight could very realistically go either way. I predict Davis by knockout in the second round in what I expect to be the fight of the night.
Martin Kampmann (-260) vs. Jorge Rivera (+200)
Jorge Rivera is 36 years old and is 4-4 in the UFC with a 15-6 overall record. Rivera shocked the world with a knockout victory over the heavily favored Kendall Grove in his latest fight at UFC 80. Rivera has faced several notable fighters in his career, including Anderson Silva and Rich Franklin.
Denmark's Martin Kampmann finally returns to the octagon after a long layoff due to a serious injury to his left knee. Kampann last fought at UFC 68 in March 2007 and has been away for over a year. He holds a 15-2 MMA record and is 3-0 in the UFC, with wins over Crafton Wallace, Thales Leites and Drew McFedries. He trains at Xtreme Coutre and fights out of Las Vegas. His last loss was a TKO due to a cut in M1 in 2004; since then he's won eight straight fights.
While Rivera surprised in his latest fight, I don't expect him to pull two consecutive upsets. Kampmann's long layoff and injury history is certainly a concern; however I think Kampmann wins this fight at least 75% of the time, better than the 72% chance afforded him by the current line. Kampann by submission in the first round, set up by strikes.
Thiago Tavares (-500) vs. Matt Wiman (+300)
Brazilian Thiago Tavares is only 23 years old but already holds a 13-1 MMA record and is 3-1 in the UFC. Tavares is well rounded, with solid Muay Thai and boxing to go with excellent jiu jitsu. He's also very strong for a lightweight. Tavares' lone loss was by unanimous decision to Tyson Griffin at UFC 76. He's coming off a unanimous decision victory over Michihiro Omigawa at UFC Fight Night 12.
Matt Wiman holds a 9-3 MMA record, and like his opponent, is 3-1 in the UFC. He likewise holds a unanimous decision victory over Omigawa, from UFC 76, and is coming off a win at UFC Fight Night 12, over Justin Buchholz. Wiman trains under Mikey Burnett in Tulsa. He was a competitor on "The Ultimate Fighter 5," losing to eventual finalist Manny Gamburyan.
Both fighters are well rounded, with skills in boxing, Muay Thai, wresting and jiu jitsu. Unfortunately for Wiman, I think Tavares holds an edge in all areas -- a slight edge in striking, and a more serious edge in jiu jitsu. While I think Tavares is actually being slightly overvalued here, with an estimated winning percentage of 83%, I can't recommend a play on Wiman unless you can find odds of +400 or better. I think Tavares just has too much of an edge in every discipline, and without a clear path to victory for Wiman, I can't justify the play despite the long odds. I predict Tavares wins by unanimous decision.
Jason Lambert (-165) vs. Luiz Cane (+135)
Brazilian Luiz Cane is 27 years old and holds a 7-1 record. Cane was disqualified in his UFC debut, losing to James Irvin when he hit his opponent with an illegal knee to the head while Irvin was on the ground. The DQ was his first professional loss. Cane is well rounded with good Muay Thai and strong jiu jitsu skills.
Jason Lambert is 30 years old and holds a 23-7 record, 6-2 in the UFC. Lambert is 1-2 in his past three, with KO losses to Wilson Gouveia and Rashad Evans, interspersed with a KO victory over Renato "Babalu" Sobral. Lambert hasn't been that active lately, with his past three fights in January 2008, March of 2007, and September of 2006 respectively. Lambert fights out of North County Fight Club in northern California with Diego Sanchez and Roger Huerta.
I like Cane in this fight even though he's a bit of an unknown commodity to most. Lambert's lack of activity and recent struggles combined with Cane's dangerous skills striking and in submissions make him a solid play as a slight underdog. Cane demonstrated a lot of promise against James Irvin before the disqualification, and I expect to see much of the same here (hopefully without the foul). Look for Cane to win the early standup, forcing Lambert to look to take the fight to the ground, with Cane stuffing a takedown and punishing Lambert with ground and pound to force a stoppage. Cane by TKO in the first round.
Paul Taylor (-260) vs. Jess Liaudin (+200)
London's Paul Taylor takes on Jess Liaudin in the only battle of European fighters on the card. Taylor is 28 years old and holds an 8-3-1 MMA record but is only 1-2 in the UFC, with losses to Paul Kelly and Marcus Davis and a win over Edilberto Crocota. Taylor is highly energetic and has won the Fight of the Night bonus in two of his three UFC fights.
French fighter Liaudin holds a 12-9 MMA record but is 2-1 in the UFC. Liaudin has been training for this fight at Marc Laimon's excellent Cobra Kai gym in Las Vegas, alongside Joe Stevenson. The 34-year-old is a well-rounded fighter who has won five of his past six fights.
Liaudin and Taylor have faced each other previously, in February 2003 in the Cage Rage organization, with Taylor winning a three round decision.
Look for a high-energy fight that won't go the distance. I actually like Liaudin here as the underdog, I think he's better than the 33% chance he's being given to win. Look for his preparation with Laimon to result in a solid gameplan for getting Taylor to the ground, where Liaudin can exploit his edge in wrestling and submissions. Liaudin wins by submission in the second round.
Kevin Burns vs. Roan Carneiro (no line)
Ryo Chonan was scheduled for this fight, but he had to pull out with a rib injury, opening the door for UFC newcomer Kevin Burnes. Burns, who boasts solid Brazilian jiu jitsu skills, has posted stoppages in all five of his career victories -- three by way of submission. Recently, he's competed for the Victory Fighting Championships and Glory Fighting Championships organizations. In fact, last month he knocked out Bobby Voelker for the VFC interim welterweight title.
Although he's a relative newcomer on the professional scene, Burns fought a number of times as an amateur. He is reported to have delivered UFC veteran Josh Neer the only loss of his amateur career.
Roan Carneiro fights with Florida's American Top Team and holds a 12-6 record, 2-1 in the UFC. The 30-year-old's only loss in the octagon was to top welterweight contender Jon Fitch. Carneiro defeated Rich Clementi in his UFC debut before falling to Fitch at UFC Fight Night 10. The Brazilian rebounded with a technical knockout of Tony DeSouza at UFC 79 in December.
It's unlikely that a betting line is posted for this fight due to the late substitution. Carneiro was a slight underdog to previous opponent Chonan, but he would likely be a heavy favorite over Burns if a line were posted. With so much unknown about Burns and the short notice factor heavily in play, I would stay away even if the linesmakers do see fit to hang a line. I predict Carneiro by unanimous decision, but it's just a shot in the dark without any significant insight on Burns.
Antoni Hardonk vs. Eddie Sanchez (no line)
Dutch kickboxer Antoni Hardonk is 32, 2-2 in the UFC and 6-4 overall. He's coming off a 17-second knockout of Colin Robinson at UFC 80 after losing to Frank Mir at UFC 74 in August 2007. Hardonk holds a blue belt in jiu jitsu under the legendary Rickson Gracie and trains kickboxing with the immortal Ernesto Hoost.
Eddie Sanchez is 25, 3-1 in the UFC and 8-1 overall. Sanchez is filling in for British fighter Neil Wain on about two weeks' notice. Sanchez is mostly known for the only loss on his record, a first round defeat courtesy of Mirko "Cro Cop" Filipovic.
Hardonk was a heavy favorite (-350) over Wain, and I hope that the linesmakers will hang him as a favorite over Sanchez if they put up a line, because I think Sanchez would be a strong bet as an underdog, even fighting on short notice. While he didn't look so impressive against Filipovic, Sanchez should have the ability to avoid Hardonk's superior striking and take the fight to the ground, where he can bring his wrestling and athleticism in to play.
Betting on this fight will depend on the line. Hardonk wins this fight most of the time, but I'd be happy to bet Sanchez as a +180 underdog or better.
My public record plays against widely available lines:
- Matt Hughes -185: 1.85u to win 1u
- Jason Day +260: .1u to win .26u
- Nate Marquardt -185: 5.55u to win 3u
- Brandon Vera -170: .85u to win .5u
- Marcus Davis -110: .55u to win .5u
- Luis Cane +135: .2u to win .27u
- Jess Liaudin +200: .2u to win .4u
