mcdrewcarey187
Pretty much a regular
yes very suprising. I was hoping to get 2 to 1 value on lesnar
UFC 88: Breakthrough (Liddell v. Evans) - Saturday, Sep 06
- Thread starter mogo
- Start date
kushBsmokin
Dr. Greenthumb
Ya was hoping for the same, I knew Randy wouldnt be -500 or even close to that considering the layoff and the matchup. It seems as if the line is begging for Couture backing
mcdrewcarey187
Pretty much a regular
Does anyone think that Shad can take chuck down? That would be his only chance but even Randy only was able to take chuck down consistently in 1 of the fights right?
Dan Henderson wants to get back on track at UFC 88
At a time when so many top fighters are very careful about selecting their next opponent, Dan Henderson agreed to face Rousimar Palhares even though he didn't have a clue who he was.
"I didn’t know him," said Henderson, who faces the Brazilian jiu-jitsu expert on Saturday night at the Ultimate Fighting Championship's first event at the Phillips Arena in Atlanta. "After I agreed to the match, I started watching tapes of him on the Internet. He's submitted some really good guys. He's strong, and he's not afraid to get hit."
Henderson (22-7 MMA, 2-2 UFC) hopes to take Palhares (8-1 MMA, 1-0 UFC) out of his submission game in step one toward earning a rematch with UFC middleweight champion Anderson Silva. Silva choked Henderson out in the second round of their March 1 UFC vs. PRIDE middleweight champion showdown in Columbus, Ohio, which unified the belts.
"He's never faced anyone with good takedown defense and never faced someone who hits hard and I'm looking at doing both of those things," said the Murrieta, Calif.-based fighter.
Henderson's game plan is simple: the former U.S. Olympic wrestler will use his superior balance from a lifetime of wrestling to keep the fight standing, negating the smooth groundwork that was evident when Palhares made his UFC debut on May 24. In that fight, he caught veteran Ivan Salaverry with an armbar in just 2:36, his fifth straight first-round submission victory.
"I don’t plan on being able to submit him," said Henderson. "I’m not afraid at all to going to the ground, but that's his strength. I'll try to keep it standing, which is my strength."
It's going to be baptism-by-fire for Palhares, who is 10 years younger than the 38-year-old Henderson. Palhares kept switching from a left-handed choke to a right-handed one, and then to an armbar against Salaverry. He garnered a $75,000 best submission bonus check out of his debut fight and opened a lot of eyes in the process. A win would make him an instant championship contender.
Henderson has a plethora of national championships dating back to his age group titles in freestyle and Greco-Roman in 1988. Even though he didn't medal at the 1992 and 1996 Olympics, Henderson considers his experience at the games on a par with the night in Las Vegas he ended the five-and-a-half-year record-setting title run by PRIDE light heavyweight champion Wanderlei Silva.
The Olympics are a big deal to Henderson, who attended the 1984, 1988 and 2000 games as a spectator. He missed Athens in 2004 while training for a fight in Japan and then had to skip Beijing because of the timing of this fight. "I was hoping to fight in Minneapolis (on Aug. 9) and then be able to go to the Olympics," he said.
Henderson vividly remembers his first pro bout at a tournament in 1997 in Brazil when a near-riot broke out after his match with local fighter Crezio de Souza was stopped.
Henderson went to UFC in 1998 and won a tournament to earn a title shot at then under-200 pound champion Frank Shamrock. But he showed little interest in the title fight because MMA was just a way to help pay the bills for his Olympic dream.
While Greco-Roman wrestling was still his main sport, and weighing just 195 pounds, he entered a 32-man open weight class tournament in late 1999 and early 2000 in Japan for the RINGS promotion. On the final night, he won close and controversial decisions over then-heavyweight Renato "Babalu" Sobral and future heavyweight legend Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira, in succession. He actually won three fights that night, solidly beating kickboxer Gilbert Yvel in the tournament finals by using his wrestling to negate the feared striker.
After losing in the 2000 Olympic trials at 181 pounds, Henderson signed with the PRIDE Fighting Championships, compiling a 13-5 record over a seven-year period as a full-time MMA fighter, against almost all name fighters.
Henderson came into the UFC last year after the purchase of the PRIDE promotion, where he held world titles at both 83 kilograms (182.6 pounds) and 93 kilograms (204.6 pounds), the metric equivalents of middleweight and light heavyweight. He was the only man in MMA history to hold major world titles in different weight classes at the same time.
He won a razor-thin decision over Murilo Bustamante on December 31, 2005, in Saitama, Japan to win the 83-kilogram title, and knocked out Wanderlei Silva on February 24, 2007, in a thrilling match in Las Vegas, to take the 93-kilogram crown.
Henderson is significantly smaller than all of UFC's light heavyweights, but UFC president Dana White wanted him to face Silva right away as a middleweight. Instead, Henderson came in as a light heavyweight, believing there was more money in being champion in that division. He faced UFC champ Quinton Jackson in a unification match on Sept. 8, in London, England.
Henderson lost a tough five-round decision to Jackson in, depending on how you want to split hairs, either the first- or second-most watched MMA match (along with the 2006 Tito Ortiz vs. Ken Shamrock match) in U.S. cable television history.
But it was the Silva loss in the middleweight unification match that left him frustrated. While some tout Silva, ranked No. 1 pound-for-pound in the world in the current Yahoo! Sports poll as being the closest thing to unbeatable in the sport, Henderson is staying at middleweight largely to prove that's not the case.
"He's got holes in his game," said Henderson, who won the first round of the fight, before getting tired and being submitted in the second round. "He's very athletic and can get away with it. I felt my conditioning was off. I got a little tired and didn't push the takedown in the second round. If I'd have gotten it, I'd have won the round. I should have been more aggressive when I had him down in the first round. I didn't expect to finish him so I didn't try. I was looking to win the round."
But he said he feels a lot better days ahead of this fight, even though, with two losses in a row, it's not a fight he can afford to lose.
"I feel more relaxed," he said. "My conditioning is good. As you get older, you learn to listen to your body. You know when it's time to take a day off. Rest is as important as your training."
A mistake he made in preparation for the Silva fight was to stay a little too heavy in training at the end, which he thinks is why he got tired in round two. He cut from 196 to 185 pounds the day before the fight.
"I'd like to cut five or six pounds the day of weigh-ins," he said.
"After my workout (Sunday) I was 195 pounds and I haven’t started dieting yet."
At a time when so many top fighters are very careful about selecting their next opponent, Dan Henderson agreed to face Rousimar Palhares even though he didn't have a clue who he was.
"I didn’t know him," said Henderson, who faces the Brazilian jiu-jitsu expert on Saturday night at the Ultimate Fighting Championship's first event at the Phillips Arena in Atlanta. "After I agreed to the match, I started watching tapes of him on the Internet. He's submitted some really good guys. He's strong, and he's not afraid to get hit."
Henderson (22-7 MMA, 2-2 UFC) hopes to take Palhares (8-1 MMA, 1-0 UFC) out of his submission game in step one toward earning a rematch with UFC middleweight champion Anderson Silva. Silva choked Henderson out in the second round of their March 1 UFC vs. PRIDE middleweight champion showdown in Columbus, Ohio, which unified the belts.
"He's never faced anyone with good takedown defense and never faced someone who hits hard and I'm looking at doing both of those things," said the Murrieta, Calif.-based fighter.
Henderson's game plan is simple: the former U.S. Olympic wrestler will use his superior balance from a lifetime of wrestling to keep the fight standing, negating the smooth groundwork that was evident when Palhares made his UFC debut on May 24. In that fight, he caught veteran Ivan Salaverry with an armbar in just 2:36, his fifth straight first-round submission victory.
"I don’t plan on being able to submit him," said Henderson. "I’m not afraid at all to going to the ground, but that's his strength. I'll try to keep it standing, which is my strength."
It's going to be baptism-by-fire for Palhares, who is 10 years younger than the 38-year-old Henderson. Palhares kept switching from a left-handed choke to a right-handed one, and then to an armbar against Salaverry. He garnered a $75,000 best submission bonus check out of his debut fight and opened a lot of eyes in the process. A win would make him an instant championship contender.
Henderson has a plethora of national championships dating back to his age group titles in freestyle and Greco-Roman in 1988. Even though he didn't medal at the 1992 and 1996 Olympics, Henderson considers his experience at the games on a par with the night in Las Vegas he ended the five-and-a-half-year record-setting title run by PRIDE light heavyweight champion Wanderlei Silva.
The Olympics are a big deal to Henderson, who attended the 1984, 1988 and 2000 games as a spectator. He missed Athens in 2004 while training for a fight in Japan and then had to skip Beijing because of the timing of this fight. "I was hoping to fight in Minneapolis (on Aug. 9) and then be able to go to the Olympics," he said.
Henderson vividly remembers his first pro bout at a tournament in 1997 in Brazil when a near-riot broke out after his match with local fighter Crezio de Souza was stopped.
Henderson went to UFC in 1998 and won a tournament to earn a title shot at then under-200 pound champion Frank Shamrock. But he showed little interest in the title fight because MMA was just a way to help pay the bills for his Olympic dream.
While Greco-Roman wrestling was still his main sport, and weighing just 195 pounds, he entered a 32-man open weight class tournament in late 1999 and early 2000 in Japan for the RINGS promotion. On the final night, he won close and controversial decisions over then-heavyweight Renato "Babalu" Sobral and future heavyweight legend Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira, in succession. He actually won three fights that night, solidly beating kickboxer Gilbert Yvel in the tournament finals by using his wrestling to negate the feared striker.
After losing in the 2000 Olympic trials at 181 pounds, Henderson signed with the PRIDE Fighting Championships, compiling a 13-5 record over a seven-year period as a full-time MMA fighter, against almost all name fighters.
Henderson came into the UFC last year after the purchase of the PRIDE promotion, where he held world titles at both 83 kilograms (182.6 pounds) and 93 kilograms (204.6 pounds), the metric equivalents of middleweight and light heavyweight. He was the only man in MMA history to hold major world titles in different weight classes at the same time.
He won a razor-thin decision over Murilo Bustamante on December 31, 2005, in Saitama, Japan to win the 83-kilogram title, and knocked out Wanderlei Silva on February 24, 2007, in a thrilling match in Las Vegas, to take the 93-kilogram crown.
Henderson is significantly smaller than all of UFC's light heavyweights, but UFC president Dana White wanted him to face Silva right away as a middleweight. Instead, Henderson came in as a light heavyweight, believing there was more money in being champion in that division. He faced UFC champ Quinton Jackson in a unification match on Sept. 8, in London, England.
Henderson lost a tough five-round decision to Jackson in, depending on how you want to split hairs, either the first- or second-most watched MMA match (along with the 2006 Tito Ortiz vs. Ken Shamrock match) in U.S. cable television history.
But it was the Silva loss in the middleweight unification match that left him frustrated. While some tout Silva, ranked No. 1 pound-for-pound in the world in the current Yahoo! Sports poll as being the closest thing to unbeatable in the sport, Henderson is staying at middleweight largely to prove that's not the case.
"He's got holes in his game," said Henderson, who won the first round of the fight, before getting tired and being submitted in the second round. "He's very athletic and can get away with it. I felt my conditioning was off. I got a little tired and didn't push the takedown in the second round. If I'd have gotten it, I'd have won the round. I should have been more aggressive when I had him down in the first round. I didn't expect to finish him so I didn't try. I was looking to win the round."
But he said he feels a lot better days ahead of this fight, even though, with two losses in a row, it's not a fight he can afford to lose.
"I feel more relaxed," he said. "My conditioning is good. As you get older, you learn to listen to your body. You know when it's time to take a day off. Rest is as important as your training."
A mistake he made in preparation for the Silva fight was to stay a little too heavy in training at the end, which he thinks is why he got tired in round two. He cut from 196 to 185 pounds the day before the fight.
"I'd like to cut five or six pounds the day of weigh-ins," he said.
"After my workout (Sunday) I was 195 pounds and I haven’t started dieting yet."
Breaking down Chuck Liddell vs. Rashad Evans (from FIGHT! Magazine)
The following article was written by MMAjunkie.com's own Eric "Performify" Foster for the September 2008 issue of FIGHT! Magazine (on newstands now). Performify is a regular contributor to FIGHT! and shares his insights on betting on MMA.
Subscriptions to FIGHT! Magazine are available at www.fightmagazine.com.
A collection of injuries resulted in this fight being set for UFC 88. Evans was originally scheduled to fight Liddell at UFC 85 as a replacement for the injured Mauricio Rua. When Liddell pulled out due to an injury of his own, Evans was matched with James Irvin. When Irvin pulled out after breaking his foot, the fight was removed from the card altogether and postponed until UFC 88. Thanks to the postponements, this will be Evans' first fight since Nov. 17 and Liddell's first since Dec. 29.
Breaking Down the Fighters: Chuck Liddell
Chuck "The Iceman" Liddell is one of the most dominant fighters in UFC history. His place in the UFC Hall of Fame is assured. Liddell's impressive 21-5 MMA record (16-4 UFC) runs through a "who's who" of MMA, from his debut back at UFC 17 in 1998 to his most recent victory at UFC 79. Liddell's list of strengths is too "belligerent and numerous" to name entirely, but in a nutshell, he has great footwork, amazing punching power, fantastic ability to punch and counterpunch from any angle (including while backpedaling), and the best sprawl in MMA.
Liddell, a former UFC light heavyweight champion, is 1-1 since losing his title to Quinton Jackson in May 2007. Four months after that loss, he suffered another defeat (via split decision) to Keith Jardine. These were the first back-to-back losses of his career. He then rebounded for an impressive unanimous-decision victory over Wanderlei Silva at UFC 79.
Liddell is known for his striking prowess, but his dominance there has actually overshadowed his well-rounded skills. Liddell has a Division I collegiate wrestling background; he wrestled for California Polytechnic State University, San Luis Obispo, an NCAA Division I program. And while Liddell has been studying Koei-Kan karate since the age of 12, he also holds a purple belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu. Liddell trains at The Pit in Arroyo Grande, Calif., under John Hackleman.
Breaking Down the Fighters: Rashad Evans
Rashad Evans was the heavyweight winner on "The Ultimate Fighter 2." However, his normal fighting weight is here at light heavyweight. Evans is 28 years old and has an 11-0-1 professional MMA record, 6-0-1 in the UFC.
Evans is best known as a strong wrestler; he was a two-time all-state wrestler in high school and wrestled NCAA Division I for Michigan State. There, he was one of only four people to ever defeat legendary collegiate wrestler Greg Jones. If you don't recall the name, Jones is one of the most successful American collegiate wrestlers of all-time, winning three NCAA Division I wrestling titles for West Virginia University. Evans now trains out of Albuquerque, N.M., with Greg Jackson's Submission Fighting. Thanks to the tutelage of Jackson, Evans has become more well-rounded, but he's still struggling to break away from being a one-dimensional fighter and has not yet consistently demonstrated the development of either strong submissions or strong striking to match his wrestling and takedown ability.
Early in his MMA career, Evans was criticized for leaning on "lay and pray" to grind his way to a handful of boring decision victories. These included a majority-decision win over Stephan Bonnar at UFC Fight Night 5 and two split-decision wins: Sam Hoger at UFC Fight Night 4, and Brad Imes to win "The Ultimate Fighter 2" contract at the series finale.
Evans broke a string of five consecutive decision wins -- three of them non-unanimous -- with a second-round KO of Jason Lambert on the undercard of UFC 63, handing Lambert his first loss in almost three years. Evans then continued his winning ways by defeating Sean Salmon at UFC Fight Night 8 with a dramatic second-round KO kick. Then, after fighting Tito Ortiz to a controversial unanimous draw at UFC 73, he returned to his history of close decision wins with a split-decision victory over Michael Bisping at UFC 78.
Breaking Down the Odds
At the time of publication, the current betting line for this fight is Chuck Liddell -260, Rashad Evans +200. These odds give Liddell an approximately 72% chance of winning, and Evans is given a 1-in-3 chance of pulling off the upset.
There are a few unanswered questions coming into this fight (the unknown status of both should affect your willingness to wager to some level): Is Liddell completely recovered from his brutal hamstring injury? At 38 (39 in December), has his age finally caught up to him and reduced his effectiveness?
Liddell has essentially made a career of knocking out grapplers. There's no question he's one of the most dominant (and marketable) UFC fighters of all time. I mean absolutely no disrespect, but you have to look at his record for some honest analysis; he's rarely faced elite-level strikers, and his results are mixed against those, with two losses to Quinton "Rampage" Jackson and decision victories over an aging Wanderlei Silva and a young Vitor Belfort.
With a few notable exceptions, Liddell has spent his modern years in the cage fighting one-dimensional opponents with less-than-stellar striking. Against those opponents, Liddell has been able to utilize his phenomenal takedown defense and his devastating counter-punching to blast grappler after grappler into the ether.
While Liddell's last loss was to a Greg Jackson-coached fighter, I do not believe that Jackson is going to be able to build the same sort of gameplan to beat Liddell the second time around. Despite the KO of Salmon, Evans has not previously demonstrated a consistent arsenal of leg kicks necessary to implement the same strategy as his teammate Jardine. While he's shown slightly increased striking, I think his gameplan is going to be pretty straightforward -- hope that Liddell's age has finally caught up to him, and that his takedown defense and cardio just isn't where it used to be. Look for Evans to go back to the "lay-and-pray" playbook, looking to grind out a decision with takedowns, ground control and no real damage.
Liddell knows what to do against grapplers; again, this is his bread and butter. Liddell is 2-1 against the legendary Randy Couture, and I think we can agree that Couture is, generally speaking, better than Evans at most areas of MMA, especially where it matters in terms of matching up directly with Liddell.
This is a classic battle between striker and grappler -- except the striker in question has some of the greatest takedown defense in MMA's history. We have talked a lot about the cliché "styles make fights," and unfortunately for Evans, his style is something "The Iceman" has proven he can usually handle with ease. Ultimately, I think this fight plays out a lot like Liddell vs. Ortiz II, with Evans able to survive the early rounds, even getting Liddell down a couple times, but ultimately unable to completely control him and eventually getting blasted, dropped and stopped.
My prediction is Liddell by TKO late in the third round. Liddell opened around -215 and has been bet up steadily since, so if you want bet on him, I suggest betting sooner than later to lock in the favorable line.
Of course, there is eventually a probability where Evans becomes the right side. For me, the point of equilibrium is approximately +/- 300, or 75% Liddell and 25% Evans.
Expect to see the winner of this fight as the next challenger for the light heavyweight crown recently obtained by Griffin. Liddell can springboard off a win and slide into a shot at reclaiming "his" title based on the stumbles of other top-ranked contenders. For Evans, a win over Liddell and his continued undefeated status would vault him over the field to a title shot. If Liddell wins and walks away uninjured, expect the fight as soon as the UFC's year-end event in December. If Evans wins, as a less-marketable fight, expect to see that match in the early part of 2009.
The following article was written by MMAjunkie.com's own Eric "Performify" Foster for the September 2008 issue of FIGHT! Magazine (on newstands now). Performify is a regular contributor to FIGHT! and shares his insights on betting on MMA.
Subscriptions to FIGHT! Magazine are available at www.fightmagazine.com.
* * * *
For the first time in the organization's history, the UFC is heading to Atlanta -- and Saturday's event will feature a headline bout between UFC light heavyweight contenders Chuck Liddell and Rashad EvansA collection of injuries resulted in this fight being set for UFC 88. Evans was originally scheduled to fight Liddell at UFC 85 as a replacement for the injured Mauricio Rua. When Liddell pulled out due to an injury of his own, Evans was matched with James Irvin. When Irvin pulled out after breaking his foot, the fight was removed from the card altogether and postponed until UFC 88. Thanks to the postponements, this will be Evans' first fight since Nov. 17 and Liddell's first since Dec. 29.
Breaking Down the Fighters: Chuck Liddell
Chuck "The Iceman" Liddell is one of the most dominant fighters in UFC history. His place in the UFC Hall of Fame is assured. Liddell's impressive 21-5 MMA record (16-4 UFC) runs through a "who's who" of MMA, from his debut back at UFC 17 in 1998 to his most recent victory at UFC 79. Liddell's list of strengths is too "belligerent and numerous" to name entirely, but in a nutshell, he has great footwork, amazing punching power, fantastic ability to punch and counterpunch from any angle (including while backpedaling), and the best sprawl in MMA.
Liddell, a former UFC light heavyweight champion, is 1-1 since losing his title to Quinton Jackson in May 2007. Four months after that loss, he suffered another defeat (via split decision) to Keith Jardine. These were the first back-to-back losses of his career. He then rebounded for an impressive unanimous-decision victory over Wanderlei Silva at UFC 79.
Liddell is known for his striking prowess, but his dominance there has actually overshadowed his well-rounded skills. Liddell has a Division I collegiate wrestling background; he wrestled for California Polytechnic State University, San Luis Obispo, an NCAA Division I program. And while Liddell has been studying Koei-Kan karate since the age of 12, he also holds a purple belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu. Liddell trains at The Pit in Arroyo Grande, Calif., under John Hackleman.
Breaking Down the Fighters: Rashad Evans
Rashad Evans was the heavyweight winner on "The Ultimate Fighter 2." However, his normal fighting weight is here at light heavyweight. Evans is 28 years old and has an 11-0-1 professional MMA record, 6-0-1 in the UFC.
Evans is best known as a strong wrestler; he was a two-time all-state wrestler in high school and wrestled NCAA Division I for Michigan State. There, he was one of only four people to ever defeat legendary collegiate wrestler Greg Jones. If you don't recall the name, Jones is one of the most successful American collegiate wrestlers of all-time, winning three NCAA Division I wrestling titles for West Virginia University. Evans now trains out of Albuquerque, N.M., with Greg Jackson's Submission Fighting. Thanks to the tutelage of Jackson, Evans has become more well-rounded, but he's still struggling to break away from being a one-dimensional fighter and has not yet consistently demonstrated the development of either strong submissions or strong striking to match his wrestling and takedown ability.
Early in his MMA career, Evans was criticized for leaning on "lay and pray" to grind his way to a handful of boring decision victories. These included a majority-decision win over Stephan Bonnar at UFC Fight Night 5 and two split-decision wins: Sam Hoger at UFC Fight Night 4, and Brad Imes to win "The Ultimate Fighter 2" contract at the series finale.
Evans broke a string of five consecutive decision wins -- three of them non-unanimous -- with a second-round KO of Jason Lambert on the undercard of UFC 63, handing Lambert his first loss in almost three years. Evans then continued his winning ways by defeating Sean Salmon at UFC Fight Night 8 with a dramatic second-round KO kick. Then, after fighting Tito Ortiz to a controversial unanimous draw at UFC 73, he returned to his history of close decision wins with a split-decision victory over Michael Bisping at UFC 78.
Breaking Down the Odds
At the time of publication, the current betting line for this fight is Chuck Liddell -260, Rashad Evans +200. These odds give Liddell an approximately 72% chance of winning, and Evans is given a 1-in-3 chance of pulling off the upset.
There are a few unanswered questions coming into this fight (the unknown status of both should affect your willingness to wager to some level): Is Liddell completely recovered from his brutal hamstring injury? At 38 (39 in December), has his age finally caught up to him and reduced his effectiveness?
Liddell has essentially made a career of knocking out grapplers. There's no question he's one of the most dominant (and marketable) UFC fighters of all time. I mean absolutely no disrespect, but you have to look at his record for some honest analysis; he's rarely faced elite-level strikers, and his results are mixed against those, with two losses to Quinton "Rampage" Jackson and decision victories over an aging Wanderlei Silva and a young Vitor Belfort.
With a few notable exceptions, Liddell has spent his modern years in the cage fighting one-dimensional opponents with less-than-stellar striking. Against those opponents, Liddell has been able to utilize his phenomenal takedown defense and his devastating counter-punching to blast grappler after grappler into the ether.
While Liddell's last loss was to a Greg Jackson-coached fighter, I do not believe that Jackson is going to be able to build the same sort of gameplan to beat Liddell the second time around. Despite the KO of Salmon, Evans has not previously demonstrated a consistent arsenal of leg kicks necessary to implement the same strategy as his teammate Jardine. While he's shown slightly increased striking, I think his gameplan is going to be pretty straightforward -- hope that Liddell's age has finally caught up to him, and that his takedown defense and cardio just isn't where it used to be. Look for Evans to go back to the "lay-and-pray" playbook, looking to grind out a decision with takedowns, ground control and no real damage.
Liddell knows what to do against grapplers; again, this is his bread and butter. Liddell is 2-1 against the legendary Randy Couture, and I think we can agree that Couture is, generally speaking, better than Evans at most areas of MMA, especially where it matters in terms of matching up directly with Liddell.
This is a classic battle between striker and grappler -- except the striker in question has some of the greatest takedown defense in MMA's history. We have talked a lot about the cliché "styles make fights," and unfortunately for Evans, his style is something "The Iceman" has proven he can usually handle with ease. Ultimately, I think this fight plays out a lot like Liddell vs. Ortiz II, with Evans able to survive the early rounds, even getting Liddell down a couple times, but ultimately unable to completely control him and eventually getting blasted, dropped and stopped.
My prediction is Liddell by TKO late in the third round. Liddell opened around -215 and has been bet up steadily since, so if you want bet on him, I suggest betting sooner than later to lock in the favorable line.
Of course, there is eventually a probability where Evans becomes the right side. For me, the point of equilibrium is approximately +/- 300, or 75% Liddell and 25% Evans.
Expect to see the winner of this fight as the next challenger for the light heavyweight crown recently obtained by Griffin. Liddell can springboard off a win and slide into a shot at reclaiming "his" title based on the stumbles of other top-ranked contenders. For Evans, a win over Liddell and his continued undefeated status would vault him over the field to a title shot. If Liddell wins and walks away uninjured, expect the fight as soon as the UFC's year-end event in December. If Evans wins, as a less-marketable fight, expect to see that match in the early part of 2009.
Report: Karo Parisyan injured, UFC 88 bout scrapped
Just hours before the official weigh-ins for tomorrow night's UFC 88 in Atlanta, a welterweight bout between Karo Parisyan (18-5 MMA, 8-3 UFC) and Yoshiyuki Yoshida (10-2 MMA, 1-0 UFC) has been scrapped.
The official announcement was made on the UFC's official website, citing a "last-minute back injury" that forced Parisyan to withdraw.
A source close to Parisyan told MMAjunkie.com (www.mmajunkie.com) that the fighter "wasn't in the best of shape," but it wasn't clear whether Parisyan's conditioning was a factor in his withdrawal.
Parisyan has been candid with the media in recent weeks about his battle with panic attacks and the effect they have had in his training regimen.
Initial attempts to contact Parisyan by MMAjunkie.com were unsuccessful.
According to UFC.com no replacement will be sought for Parisyan at this time.
Just hours before the official weigh-ins for tomorrow night's UFC 88 in Atlanta, a welterweight bout between Karo Parisyan (18-5 MMA, 8-3 UFC) and Yoshiyuki Yoshida (10-2 MMA, 1-0 UFC) has been scrapped.
The official announcement was made on the UFC's official website, citing a "last-minute back injury" that forced Parisyan to withdraw.
A source close to Parisyan told MMAjunkie.com (www.mmajunkie.com) that the fighter "wasn't in the best of shape," but it wasn't clear whether Parisyan's conditioning was a factor in his withdrawal.
Parisyan has been candid with the media in recent weeks about his battle with panic attacks and the effect they have had in his training regimen.
Initial attempts to contact Parisyan by MMAjunkie.com were unsuccessful.
According to UFC.com no replacement will be sought for Parisyan at this time.
Performify's Picks for UFC 88
Eric "Performify" Foster, MMAjunkie.com's resident handicapper, returns for a breakdown and recommended picks for Saturday's UFC 88 event.
Performify breaks down the entire fight card and also provides a few recommended "good bets," including a recommended play on the night's main event of Chuck Liddell vs. Rashad Evans and the co-main event of Rich Franklin vs. Matt Hamill.
<CENTER>* * *</CENTER>
Results of 4-1 for +2.55 units on UFC 87 brings my recent running total (since UFC 75) for my public predictions to 53-41 for +21.925 units.
As usual, except where otherwise indicated, all lines are current market lines from MMAjunkie.com's recommended sportsbook, Bodog. If you're interested in learning more about betting on MMA, check out the series of articles in our MMAjunkie.com MMA Wagering Guide series. You can also stay up to date with the latest MMA and UFC odds directly via our new UFC Odds page.
Chuck Liddell (-285 via Bookmaker) vs. Rashad Evans (+230)
I covered this fight in depth in FIGHT Magazine's September issue (reprinted here on the site, see "Breaking down Chuck Liddell vs. Rashad Evans"), so I am not going to rehash it in depth again. Suffice to say that my analysis from that previous article stands: This is a classic battle between striker and grappler -- and the striker in question has essentially made a career of knocking out grapplers.
With a few notable exceptions, Liddell has spent his modern years in the cage fighting one-dimensional opponents with less-than-stellar striking. Against those opponents, Liddell has been able to utilize his phenomenal takedown defense and his devastating counter-punching to blast grappler after grappler into the ether. Liddell is 2-1 against the legendary Randy Couture, for example. And I think we can agree that Couture is, generally speaking, more well-regarded than Evans at most areas of MMA -- especially where it matters in terms of matching up directly with Liddell.
"Styles make fights" is a tired cliché, but unfortunately for Evans, his style is something "The Iceman" has proven he can usually handle with ease, and that ultimately makes this fight for me. I expect this fight plays out a lot like Liddell vs. Ortiz II, with Evans doing OK in the first round or two, keeping things close, even getting Liddell down a couple times, but ultimately unable to completely control him and keep him down, and eventually getting blasted, dropped and stopped.
There are a few unanswered questions coming into this fight (the unknown status of both should affect your willingness to wager to some level): Is Liddell completely recovered from his brutal hamstring injury? At 38 (39 in December), has his age finally caught up to him and reduced his effectiveness?
My prediction is Liddell by TKO late in the third round. Liddell opened around -215 and has been bet up steadily since, to the current line of Liddell -285 on Bookmaker (-290 on Bodog).
As I wrote in FIGHT a month ago, "Of course, there is eventually a probability where Evans becomes the right side. For me, the point of equilibrium is approximately +/- 300, or 75% Liddell and 25% Evans." Unfortunately if you want to bet on Liddell, most of the value has been bet out of the line. There is still slight value at -285, enough to warrant a small play especially if you are a fellow action junkie. Otherwise look elsewhere on the card for your main source of value.
Rich Franklin (-255 via Bookmaker) vs. Matt Hamill (+205)
In a battle of Cincinnati natives, ex-middleweight champ Rich Franklin (23-3 MMA, 10-2 UFC) makes a return to the light heavyweight weight class to take on one-time training partner and friend Matt Hamill (4-1 MMA and UFC). "Ace" trains under Matt Hume, jiu-jitsu under Jorge Gurgel, and boxing under Rob Radford. Hamill was a three-time NCAA Division III National Champion in wrestling at the Rochester Institute of Technology in New York, and a contestant on the third season of "The Ultimate Fighter," training on "Team Ortiz."
One of Franklin's best strengths in the cage has always been his freakish size and strength for a middleweight, and in moving (back) to 205 we should see a lot of that traditional advantage neutralized. Still, I expect that the well-rounded Franklin should be able to neutralize Hamill's strengths here and pull out the victory enough to make him a profitable bet up to a line of -300.
Look for this fight to play out a lot like Hamill's controversial loss to Michael Bisping, with Franklin working angles and peppering with shots from the outside while trying to stay out of takedown range. If Hamill responds with the same sloppy haymaker approach to the standup game that he did against Bisping, look for Franklin to win this fight by TKO in the second round courtesy his significant edge in striking and well-roundedness.
If Hamill has significantly improved his striking, a more well-rounded set of tools would allow him a decent chance to drag this fight to a decision win, since I think some of Franklin's past wrestling prowess will be neutralized by the move to 205 thus giving up his traditional strength advantage over his opponents.
Karo Parisyan (-220) vs. Yoshiyuki Yoshida (+190 viaBookmaker)
Karo Parisyan holds an 18-5 pro MMA record and is 8-3 in the UFC. Parisyan comes in to this fight off a disappointing loss to Thiago Alves at UFC Fight Night 13. "The Heat" is a skilled and decorated Judoka who trains with Greg Jackson's camp in New Mexico.
Japanese fighter Yoshiyuki Yoshida is a veteran of the Shooto and Cage Force organizations. Yoshida made his UFC debut at UFC 84 back in May, defeating War Machine (Jon Koppenhaver) by anaconda choke in the first minute of their fight. Yoshida is a skilled grappler and like Parisyan is a decorated Judoka. He holds a fourth degree black belt in judo, and trained for this fight with Olympic gold medalist and former PRIDE star Hidehiko Yoshida (no relation). Yoshida is also a skilled striker, with good power and great aggression.
Parisyan was recently diagnosed with panic attacks, and if he gets in trouble in this fight early it will be interesting to see how he reacts. Yoshida is an interesting fight for Parisyan because his Judo skills definitely neutralize what has been Parisyan's main strength in his MMA career. Yoshida likely even has an edge on Parisyan in judo terms, and it will be interesting to see how "The Heat" responds if he gets tossed a time or two.
This line opened with Yoshida a much larger underdog, around +225, and has been bet down steadily. A lot of people like Yoshida here as a heavy underdog, and I cannot disagree in the slightest. His grappling and judo skills should neutralize Parisyan's best weapons, and I believe his striking skills are actually superior. I predict Yoshida by TKO in the third round.
Dan Henderson (-245) vs. Rousimar Palhares (+195)
Former PRIDE two-class champion Dan Henderson holds a 22-7 MMA record, but is 2-2 in the UFC. The 38-year-old Henderson is coming off consecutive losses for the first time in his career after losing consecutive title shots at light heavyweight and middleweight. Henderson is a decorated Greco-Roman wrestler, an NCAA champion and a two-time Olympian.
Despite a long and glorious career, surprisingly Henderson has been less effective at middleweight compared to greater success as a light heavyweight. For example, take Henderson losing to Kazuo Misaki at PRIDE Bushido 12 and struggling with Yuki Kondo at PRIDE Shockwave 2004.
Brazilian Rousimar Palhares trains with Brazilian Top Team and holds an 8-1 MMA record. "Toquinho" has won six fights in a row, including submission victories over Fabio Negao, Chute Boxe's Daniel Acacio, and Ivan Salaverry in his UFC debut at UFC 84. Palhares is incredibly strong and very compact, with the excellent grappling skills you would expect from a BTT member with a BJJ blackbelt under Murilo Bustamante.
Palhares' mentor Bustamante faced Henderson twice in PRIDE. In their first meeting, Bustamante was knocked out in less than a minute. The second time, Bustamante lost a close split decision. This time, I believe the protégé will do what the master could not and hand Henderson a loss.
This is a dangerous matchup for Henderson. While Palhares' standup has not been extensively explored in his career, he's demonstrated sufficient well-roundedness against some skilled opponents from the vaunted Chute Boxe academy. Henderson can't depend on his traditional gameplan of looping punches followed by ground control -- looping punches can allow your opponent to step inside, and top position against Palhares is a dangerous place to be.
I expect Palhares to get the fight to the ground early, even if he needs to pull guard to get it there. Once on the ground, I expect he will submit Henderson without too much trouble. Palhares' favorite submissions are leglocks and anklelocks, so do not be surprised if you see this fight end by a rare (in modern MMA) kneebar. Still, remember this is an underdog bet due to the odds, Palhares is being given only a one-in-three chance to win. I feel his chances are better, but you still expect him to lose more often than he wins as the underdog, despite the favorible odds.
Nate Marquardt (-150) vs. Martin Kampmann (+120)
Martin Kampmann holds an impressive 15-1 MMA record and is a perfect 4-0 in the UFC with wins over Crafton Wallace, Thales Leites, Drew McFedries and Jorge Rivera. "The Hitman" is a former Danish Thai boxing champion with well-regarded kickboxing skills, and has developed in to a well-rounded mixed martial artist with the addition of solid grappling and jiu-jitsu skills. This is Kampmann's second fight back from a devastating knee injury that put him out of commission for over a year. Despite the layoff, he is unbeaten in his past nine bouts, with his lone loss a TKO due to a cut back in 2004.
This is my favorite fight on the card, both as a fan and as a gambler. Former Pancrase legend Nathan Marquardt is 29 years old and holds a 26-8-2 MMA record. Prior to coming to the UFC, Marquardt fought primarily in the Japanese Pancrase organization, where he reigned as the only seven-time King of Pancrase (the term for title-holders in the organization). Marquardt trains at Greg Jackson's impressive camp in New Mexico, alongside a bevy of top fighters, including Georges St. Pierre and Rashad Evans.
Since leaving Japan for the UFC, Marquardt is 5-2, with wins over Jeremy Horn, Dean Lister, Crafton Wallace, Joe Doerksen and Ivan Salaverry. Marquardt's only losses in the UFC are to dominant middleweight champion Anderson Silva at UFC 73 and a controversial split decision loss to Thales Leites at UFC 85.
While Kampmann is a very underrated fighter, Marquardt is in my opinion one of the most underrated fighters in the UFC, and the split-decision loss to Leites has only increased his propensity to be underrated. He's well rounded with great grappling skills thanks to a black belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu, combined with solid wresting skills and good striking. He is very strong and has excellent cardio. While Kampmann will have a slight edge in striking skills, Marquardt has sufficient striking skills to make the fight competitive standing and to dictate where the fight goes. And while Kampmann does have good jiu-jitsu, Marquardt's is much, much better. Marquardt is especially very effective from top position, very rarely swept or submitted.
Since both guys are well-rounded, this is much more complex than just "striker versus grappler," but at the heart of my analysis is the fact that Marquardt is bigger, stronger and a better grappler, and should be able to impose his will on Kampmann unless he gets caught and finished. Even if Kampmann drops Marquardt early, Marquardt is hard to finish -- look no farther than being able to recover from being stunned and mounted by the dangerous Thales Leites in his past fight for an example of how hard it is to put Marquardt away. The fact that he was able to defend submissions and escape the most dominant possible position of mount from Leites, who is a BJJ blackbelt with a world class ground game, should give you a good understanding of how good Marquardt is on the ground, especially defensively.
Look for Marquardt to come out and execute an excellent Greg Jackson gameplan, which will likely involve putting Kampmann on his back and keeping him there with a conservative ground and pound attack. This fight opened close to even, with money coming in on Marquardt right away to move the line through -125 to the current -150. I still think this is a good play, up to about -175, but obviously the value decreases as the line worsens. I expect Marquardt wins by unanimous decision with a conservative gameplan but an overall dominant performance, even if not a popular one. Marquardt needs the win more than he needs to impress the fans right now.
Undercard
Thiago Tavares (-325) vs. Kurt Pellegrino (+250)
Brazilian Thiago Tavares is only 23 years old but already holds a 13-2 MMA record and is 3-2 in the UFC. Tavares is well rounded, with solid Muay Thai and boxing to go with excellent jiu jitsu. He is also very strong for a lightweight. Tavares' first loss was by unanimous decision to Tyson Griffin at UFC 76. After rebounding with a unanimous decision victory over Michihiro Omigawa at UFC Fight Night 12, Tavares was knocked out by Matt Wiman at UFC 85. In the fight the first round was mostly spent with both fighters on the ground, and Tavares won the round cleanly on the judges' cards. The second round was all standing, and it was here that Wiman was able to catch Tavares cleanly and finish him off.
Kurt Pellegrino holds an 11-4 MMA record but is 3-3 in the UFC. Pellegrino holds UFC wins over Junior Assuncao, Nate Mohr, and Alberto Crane, with losses to Drew Ficket, Joe Stevenson and most recently Nate Diaz at UFC Fight Night 13. Pellegrino made a number of changes after losing to Diaz, including a new agent and a whole new camp, training with fellow UFC vet Kenny Florian and WEC bantamweight champion Miguel Torres.
I am staying away from this fight due to what I perceive as a lot of unpredictability. Both fighters are very skilled on the ground and so this will likely be decided by the standup battle. Wiman's knockout of Tavares has to downgrade his Muay Thai and boxing skills a bit, so I want to see how he does standing against Pellegrino before I consider laying anything on him, especially at these odds. For purely predictive purposes, I expect Tavares to rebound here with a TKO victory, but I am definitely not willing to bet on it.
Tim Boetsch (-450) vs. Mike Patt (+300)
Boetsch holds a 7-2 professional record and is 1-1 in the UFC with an upset victory over David Heath at UFC 81 and a TKO loss to Matt Hamill at UFC Fight Night 13. Patt is a veteran fighter with a 12-2 professional record who recently stepped up as a late replacement for James Lee, who was forced to withdraw from the event due to an arm injury. Patt most recently fought on August 15th and got the call to fight for the UFC just a few days later. He is primarily a grappler who trains under Jorge Gurgel, but I have also heard good things about his skills in the clinch. Based on what little we know about these two, this should be a classic striker vs. grappler match, with Patt holding the edge if he can take the fight to the floor, and Boetsch with the ability to end the fight with a highlight-reel knockout at any time.
There are too many better bets on the card to consider betting this fight, but for predictive purposes I would stick with Boetsch by TKO in the second.
Dong - Hyun Kim (-450) vs. Matt Brown (+300)
Korean fighting legend Dong - Hyun Kim is a veteran of Japan's DEEP organization. He made his UFC debut at UFC 84, handing Jason Tan a TKO loss early in the third round of their fight. "Stun Gun" holds an undefeated 11-0-1 MMA record and has been fighting professionally since 2004. Kim is well rounded with solid grappling skills, good judo, and respectable striking skills from his southpaw stance to match.
Matt Brown was a contestant on the seventh season of "The Ultimate Fighter" and holds a 7-6 professional MMA record. Brown holds a blue belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu and trains under Jorge Gurgel and alongside Rich Franklin.
Kim's reach and striking skills should provide all the tools he needs to handle Brown here. Brown has proven to be an aggressive banger in the cage, and if he stands and trades with Kim for long he is likely to end up staring at the lights. Look for Kim to beat him up on the feet for a bit before judo tossing him to a vulnerable position and finishing the fight with elbows. I expect Kim by TKO in the second round.
Jason MacDonald (-200) vs. Jason Lambert (+160)
North County Fight Club's Jason Lambert holds an extensive 23-8 MMA record and is 4-3 in the UFC, however he has lost three of his past four -- including dropping his past two fights against Wilson Gouveia and Luis Cane.
Jason "The Athlete" MacDonald holds an equally-extensive 20-10 MMA record and is 4-3 in the UFC, losing two of his past three fights in the organization to Demian Maia and Yushin Okami. MacDonald is primarily a grappler, with 80% of his wins by way of submission.
MacDonald is a late replacement for the injured Jason Day. Apparently the UFC really wanted to see an "all Jason" match.
I do not have any special insight to this fight. I do not generally like betting late replacements, and with both of these guys on losing streaks, I do not see anything here that makes me want to bet either fighter. For predictive purposes, Jason Lambert by TKO.
Ryo Chonan (-125) vs. Roan Carneiro (-105)
Ryo "Piranha" Chonan holds a 14-8 professional record, with the vast majority of his career spent in DEEP and in PRIDE. Chonan made a less-than-spectacular UFC debut at UFC 78 back in November 2007, losing a unanimous decision to Karo Parisyan. Chonan is perhaps best known for his highlight-reel flying heel hook submission victory over Anderson Silva at PRIDE Shockwave 2004.
American Top Team's Roan Carneiro holds a 12-7 MMA record and is a disappointing 2-2 in the UFC. Carneiro defeated Rich Clementi in his UFC debut before falling to Fitch at UFC Fight Night 10. The Brazilian rebounded with a technical knockout of Tony DeSouza at UFC 79 in December. This fight between Chonan and Carneiro was originally scheduled for UFC 85, but Chonan had to pull out with a rib injury, and Carneiro was submitted by Chonan's replacement, UFC rookie Kevin Burnes.
This is not really worth betting due to the high variance of the close fight and the unknown status of Chonan coming off the rib injury.
Performify's Picks for UFC 88 for my public record:
Eric "Performify" Foster, MMAjunkie.com's resident handicapper, returns for a breakdown and recommended picks for Saturday's UFC 88 event.
Performify breaks down the entire fight card and also provides a few recommended "good bets," including a recommended play on the night's main event of Chuck Liddell vs. Rashad Evans and the co-main event of Rich Franklin vs. Matt Hamill.
<CENTER>* * *</CENTER>
Results of 4-1 for +2.55 units on UFC 87 brings my recent running total (since UFC 75) for my public predictions to 53-41 for +21.925 units.
As usual, except where otherwise indicated, all lines are current market lines from MMAjunkie.com's recommended sportsbook, Bodog. If you're interested in learning more about betting on MMA, check out the series of articles in our MMAjunkie.com MMA Wagering Guide series. You can also stay up to date with the latest MMA and UFC odds directly via our new UFC Odds page.
Chuck Liddell (-285 via Bookmaker) vs. Rashad Evans (+230)
I covered this fight in depth in FIGHT Magazine's September issue (reprinted here on the site, see "Breaking down Chuck Liddell vs. Rashad Evans"), so I am not going to rehash it in depth again. Suffice to say that my analysis from that previous article stands: This is a classic battle between striker and grappler -- and the striker in question has essentially made a career of knocking out grapplers.
With a few notable exceptions, Liddell has spent his modern years in the cage fighting one-dimensional opponents with less-than-stellar striking. Against those opponents, Liddell has been able to utilize his phenomenal takedown defense and his devastating counter-punching to blast grappler after grappler into the ether. Liddell is 2-1 against the legendary Randy Couture, for example. And I think we can agree that Couture is, generally speaking, more well-regarded than Evans at most areas of MMA -- especially where it matters in terms of matching up directly with Liddell.
"Styles make fights" is a tired cliché, but unfortunately for Evans, his style is something "The Iceman" has proven he can usually handle with ease, and that ultimately makes this fight for me. I expect this fight plays out a lot like Liddell vs. Ortiz II, with Evans doing OK in the first round or two, keeping things close, even getting Liddell down a couple times, but ultimately unable to completely control him and keep him down, and eventually getting blasted, dropped and stopped.
There are a few unanswered questions coming into this fight (the unknown status of both should affect your willingness to wager to some level): Is Liddell completely recovered from his brutal hamstring injury? At 38 (39 in December), has his age finally caught up to him and reduced his effectiveness?
My prediction is Liddell by TKO late in the third round. Liddell opened around -215 and has been bet up steadily since, to the current line of Liddell -285 on Bookmaker (-290 on Bodog).
As I wrote in FIGHT a month ago, "Of course, there is eventually a probability where Evans becomes the right side. For me, the point of equilibrium is approximately +/- 300, or 75% Liddell and 25% Evans." Unfortunately if you want to bet on Liddell, most of the value has been bet out of the line. There is still slight value at -285, enough to warrant a small play especially if you are a fellow action junkie. Otherwise look elsewhere on the card for your main source of value.
Rich Franklin (-255 via Bookmaker) vs. Matt Hamill (+205)
In a battle of Cincinnati natives, ex-middleweight champ Rich Franklin (23-3 MMA, 10-2 UFC) makes a return to the light heavyweight weight class to take on one-time training partner and friend Matt Hamill (4-1 MMA and UFC). "Ace" trains under Matt Hume, jiu-jitsu under Jorge Gurgel, and boxing under Rob Radford. Hamill was a three-time NCAA Division III National Champion in wrestling at the Rochester Institute of Technology in New York, and a contestant on the third season of "The Ultimate Fighter," training on "Team Ortiz."
One of Franklin's best strengths in the cage has always been his freakish size and strength for a middleweight, and in moving (back) to 205 we should see a lot of that traditional advantage neutralized. Still, I expect that the well-rounded Franklin should be able to neutralize Hamill's strengths here and pull out the victory enough to make him a profitable bet up to a line of -300.
Look for this fight to play out a lot like Hamill's controversial loss to Michael Bisping, with Franklin working angles and peppering with shots from the outside while trying to stay out of takedown range. If Hamill responds with the same sloppy haymaker approach to the standup game that he did against Bisping, look for Franklin to win this fight by TKO in the second round courtesy his significant edge in striking and well-roundedness.
If Hamill has significantly improved his striking, a more well-rounded set of tools would allow him a decent chance to drag this fight to a decision win, since I think some of Franklin's past wrestling prowess will be neutralized by the move to 205 thus giving up his traditional strength advantage over his opponents.
Karo Parisyan (-220) vs. Yoshiyuki Yoshida (+190 viaBookmaker)
Karo Parisyan holds an 18-5 pro MMA record and is 8-3 in the UFC. Parisyan comes in to this fight off a disappointing loss to Thiago Alves at UFC Fight Night 13. "The Heat" is a skilled and decorated Judoka who trains with Greg Jackson's camp in New Mexico.
Japanese fighter Yoshiyuki Yoshida is a veteran of the Shooto and Cage Force organizations. Yoshida made his UFC debut at UFC 84 back in May, defeating War Machine (Jon Koppenhaver) by anaconda choke in the first minute of their fight. Yoshida is a skilled grappler and like Parisyan is a decorated Judoka. He holds a fourth degree black belt in judo, and trained for this fight with Olympic gold medalist and former PRIDE star Hidehiko Yoshida (no relation). Yoshida is also a skilled striker, with good power and great aggression.
Parisyan was recently diagnosed with panic attacks, and if he gets in trouble in this fight early it will be interesting to see how he reacts. Yoshida is an interesting fight for Parisyan because his Judo skills definitely neutralize what has been Parisyan's main strength in his MMA career. Yoshida likely even has an edge on Parisyan in judo terms, and it will be interesting to see how "The Heat" responds if he gets tossed a time or two.
This line opened with Yoshida a much larger underdog, around +225, and has been bet down steadily. A lot of people like Yoshida here as a heavy underdog, and I cannot disagree in the slightest. His grappling and judo skills should neutralize Parisyan's best weapons, and I believe his striking skills are actually superior. I predict Yoshida by TKO in the third round.
Dan Henderson (-245) vs. Rousimar Palhares (+195)
Former PRIDE two-class champion Dan Henderson holds a 22-7 MMA record, but is 2-2 in the UFC. The 38-year-old Henderson is coming off consecutive losses for the first time in his career after losing consecutive title shots at light heavyweight and middleweight. Henderson is a decorated Greco-Roman wrestler, an NCAA champion and a two-time Olympian.
Despite a long and glorious career, surprisingly Henderson has been less effective at middleweight compared to greater success as a light heavyweight. For example, take Henderson losing to Kazuo Misaki at PRIDE Bushido 12 and struggling with Yuki Kondo at PRIDE Shockwave 2004.
Brazilian Rousimar Palhares trains with Brazilian Top Team and holds an 8-1 MMA record. "Toquinho" has won six fights in a row, including submission victories over Fabio Negao, Chute Boxe's Daniel Acacio, and Ivan Salaverry in his UFC debut at UFC 84. Palhares is incredibly strong and very compact, with the excellent grappling skills you would expect from a BTT member with a BJJ blackbelt under Murilo Bustamante.
Palhares' mentor Bustamante faced Henderson twice in PRIDE. In their first meeting, Bustamante was knocked out in less than a minute. The second time, Bustamante lost a close split decision. This time, I believe the protégé will do what the master could not and hand Henderson a loss.
This is a dangerous matchup for Henderson. While Palhares' standup has not been extensively explored in his career, he's demonstrated sufficient well-roundedness against some skilled opponents from the vaunted Chute Boxe academy. Henderson can't depend on his traditional gameplan of looping punches followed by ground control -- looping punches can allow your opponent to step inside, and top position against Palhares is a dangerous place to be.
I expect Palhares to get the fight to the ground early, even if he needs to pull guard to get it there. Once on the ground, I expect he will submit Henderson without too much trouble. Palhares' favorite submissions are leglocks and anklelocks, so do not be surprised if you see this fight end by a rare (in modern MMA) kneebar. Still, remember this is an underdog bet due to the odds, Palhares is being given only a one-in-three chance to win. I feel his chances are better, but you still expect him to lose more often than he wins as the underdog, despite the favorible odds.
Nate Marquardt (-150) vs. Martin Kampmann (+120)
Martin Kampmann holds an impressive 15-1 MMA record and is a perfect 4-0 in the UFC with wins over Crafton Wallace, Thales Leites, Drew McFedries and Jorge Rivera. "The Hitman" is a former Danish Thai boxing champion with well-regarded kickboxing skills, and has developed in to a well-rounded mixed martial artist with the addition of solid grappling and jiu-jitsu skills. This is Kampmann's second fight back from a devastating knee injury that put him out of commission for over a year. Despite the layoff, he is unbeaten in his past nine bouts, with his lone loss a TKO due to a cut back in 2004.
This is my favorite fight on the card, both as a fan and as a gambler. Former Pancrase legend Nathan Marquardt is 29 years old and holds a 26-8-2 MMA record. Prior to coming to the UFC, Marquardt fought primarily in the Japanese Pancrase organization, where he reigned as the only seven-time King of Pancrase (the term for title-holders in the organization). Marquardt trains at Greg Jackson's impressive camp in New Mexico, alongside a bevy of top fighters, including Georges St. Pierre and Rashad Evans.
Since leaving Japan for the UFC, Marquardt is 5-2, with wins over Jeremy Horn, Dean Lister, Crafton Wallace, Joe Doerksen and Ivan Salaverry. Marquardt's only losses in the UFC are to dominant middleweight champion Anderson Silva at UFC 73 and a controversial split decision loss to Thales Leites at UFC 85.
While Kampmann is a very underrated fighter, Marquardt is in my opinion one of the most underrated fighters in the UFC, and the split-decision loss to Leites has only increased his propensity to be underrated. He's well rounded with great grappling skills thanks to a black belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu, combined with solid wresting skills and good striking. He is very strong and has excellent cardio. While Kampmann will have a slight edge in striking skills, Marquardt has sufficient striking skills to make the fight competitive standing and to dictate where the fight goes. And while Kampmann does have good jiu-jitsu, Marquardt's is much, much better. Marquardt is especially very effective from top position, very rarely swept or submitted.
Since both guys are well-rounded, this is much more complex than just "striker versus grappler," but at the heart of my analysis is the fact that Marquardt is bigger, stronger and a better grappler, and should be able to impose his will on Kampmann unless he gets caught and finished. Even if Kampmann drops Marquardt early, Marquardt is hard to finish -- look no farther than being able to recover from being stunned and mounted by the dangerous Thales Leites in his past fight for an example of how hard it is to put Marquardt away. The fact that he was able to defend submissions and escape the most dominant possible position of mount from Leites, who is a BJJ blackbelt with a world class ground game, should give you a good understanding of how good Marquardt is on the ground, especially defensively.
Look for Marquardt to come out and execute an excellent Greg Jackson gameplan, which will likely involve putting Kampmann on his back and keeping him there with a conservative ground and pound attack. This fight opened close to even, with money coming in on Marquardt right away to move the line through -125 to the current -150. I still think this is a good play, up to about -175, but obviously the value decreases as the line worsens. I expect Marquardt wins by unanimous decision with a conservative gameplan but an overall dominant performance, even if not a popular one. Marquardt needs the win more than he needs to impress the fans right now.
Undercard
Thiago Tavares (-325) vs. Kurt Pellegrino (+250)
Brazilian Thiago Tavares is only 23 years old but already holds a 13-2 MMA record and is 3-2 in the UFC. Tavares is well rounded, with solid Muay Thai and boxing to go with excellent jiu jitsu. He is also very strong for a lightweight. Tavares' first loss was by unanimous decision to Tyson Griffin at UFC 76. After rebounding with a unanimous decision victory over Michihiro Omigawa at UFC Fight Night 12, Tavares was knocked out by Matt Wiman at UFC 85. In the fight the first round was mostly spent with both fighters on the ground, and Tavares won the round cleanly on the judges' cards. The second round was all standing, and it was here that Wiman was able to catch Tavares cleanly and finish him off.
Kurt Pellegrino holds an 11-4 MMA record but is 3-3 in the UFC. Pellegrino holds UFC wins over Junior Assuncao, Nate Mohr, and Alberto Crane, with losses to Drew Ficket, Joe Stevenson and most recently Nate Diaz at UFC Fight Night 13. Pellegrino made a number of changes after losing to Diaz, including a new agent and a whole new camp, training with fellow UFC vet Kenny Florian and WEC bantamweight champion Miguel Torres.
I am staying away from this fight due to what I perceive as a lot of unpredictability. Both fighters are very skilled on the ground and so this will likely be decided by the standup battle. Wiman's knockout of Tavares has to downgrade his Muay Thai and boxing skills a bit, so I want to see how he does standing against Pellegrino before I consider laying anything on him, especially at these odds. For purely predictive purposes, I expect Tavares to rebound here with a TKO victory, but I am definitely not willing to bet on it.
Tim Boetsch (-450) vs. Mike Patt (+300)
Boetsch holds a 7-2 professional record and is 1-1 in the UFC with an upset victory over David Heath at UFC 81 and a TKO loss to Matt Hamill at UFC Fight Night 13. Patt is a veteran fighter with a 12-2 professional record who recently stepped up as a late replacement for James Lee, who was forced to withdraw from the event due to an arm injury. Patt most recently fought on August 15th and got the call to fight for the UFC just a few days later. He is primarily a grappler who trains under Jorge Gurgel, but I have also heard good things about his skills in the clinch. Based on what little we know about these two, this should be a classic striker vs. grappler match, with Patt holding the edge if he can take the fight to the floor, and Boetsch with the ability to end the fight with a highlight-reel knockout at any time.
There are too many better bets on the card to consider betting this fight, but for predictive purposes I would stick with Boetsch by TKO in the second.
Dong - Hyun Kim (-450) vs. Matt Brown (+300)
Korean fighting legend Dong - Hyun Kim is a veteran of Japan's DEEP organization. He made his UFC debut at UFC 84, handing Jason Tan a TKO loss early in the third round of their fight. "Stun Gun" holds an undefeated 11-0-1 MMA record and has been fighting professionally since 2004. Kim is well rounded with solid grappling skills, good judo, and respectable striking skills from his southpaw stance to match.
Matt Brown was a contestant on the seventh season of "The Ultimate Fighter" and holds a 7-6 professional MMA record. Brown holds a blue belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu and trains under Jorge Gurgel and alongside Rich Franklin.
Kim's reach and striking skills should provide all the tools he needs to handle Brown here. Brown has proven to be an aggressive banger in the cage, and if he stands and trades with Kim for long he is likely to end up staring at the lights. Look for Kim to beat him up on the feet for a bit before judo tossing him to a vulnerable position and finishing the fight with elbows. I expect Kim by TKO in the second round.
Jason MacDonald (-200) vs. Jason Lambert (+160)
North County Fight Club's Jason Lambert holds an extensive 23-8 MMA record and is 4-3 in the UFC, however he has lost three of his past four -- including dropping his past two fights against Wilson Gouveia and Luis Cane.
Jason "The Athlete" MacDonald holds an equally-extensive 20-10 MMA record and is 4-3 in the UFC, losing two of his past three fights in the organization to Demian Maia and Yushin Okami. MacDonald is primarily a grappler, with 80% of his wins by way of submission.
MacDonald is a late replacement for the injured Jason Day. Apparently the UFC really wanted to see an "all Jason" match.
I do not have any special insight to this fight. I do not generally like betting late replacements, and with both of these guys on losing streaks, I do not see anything here that makes me want to bet either fighter. For predictive purposes, Jason Lambert by TKO.
Ryo Chonan (-125) vs. Roan Carneiro (-105)
Ryo "Piranha" Chonan holds a 14-8 professional record, with the vast majority of his career spent in DEEP and in PRIDE. Chonan made a less-than-spectacular UFC debut at UFC 78 back in November 2007, losing a unanimous decision to Karo Parisyan. Chonan is perhaps best known for his highlight-reel flying heel hook submission victory over Anderson Silva at PRIDE Shockwave 2004.
American Top Team's Roan Carneiro holds a 12-7 MMA record and is a disappointing 2-2 in the UFC. Carneiro defeated Rich Clementi in his UFC debut before falling to Fitch at UFC Fight Night 10. The Brazilian rebounded with a technical knockout of Tony DeSouza at UFC 79 in December. This fight between Chonan and Carneiro was originally scheduled for UFC 85, but Chonan had to pull out with a rib injury, and Carneiro was submitted by Chonan's replacement, UFC rookie Kevin Burnes.
This is not really worth betting due to the high variance of the close fight and the unknown status of Chonan coming off the rib injury.
Performify's Picks for UFC 88 for my public record:
- Chuck Liddell (-285): 2u to win .7u
- Rich Franklin (-255): 1.02u to win .4u
- Nate Marquardt (-150): 3.75u to win 2.5u
- Rousimar Palhares (+195): .7u to win 1.56u
laffit
Pretty much a regular
dont forget that evans trains with the same team that beat Chuck, i would say damn near dominated Chuck. im not betting this fight, but i could see chuck looking old if rashad puts it all together (like his 3rd round against tito). i just dont trust rashad.
if you're going to bet chuck, i think you should play the chuck to win inside the distance too.
laffit
Pretty much a regular
I agree, what is Kimbo suppose to do, turn down the money? He's an easy target for mma fans, everyone should take a look at the who nog, randy, bj, gsp, etc... fought in their first 3 fights.
spooks
You Can't Make This Up
:seeya: Fucking -245 for Hendo.....I'm off that bet now! I would rather sit back and enjoy the fight rather than worrying about my bet....I have enough to worry about on NCAA games already.
Just like the article says about Liddell/Evans:
If Evans reverts back to "Lay-N-Pray", it wont be able to keep Liddell down...and that's IF he takes him down successfully. Another thing to ask yourself, can Evans go toe-to-toe in striking and be successful? I dont think age is a factor for Chuck, not yet.
He lost to Jardine given the fact that he just lost the LHW title a few months back and Jardine was well trained and had executed a very good game plan. (Although he didn't executed very well against Silva..0.36 sec. TKO)
Just like the article says about Liddell/Evans:
If Evans reverts back to "Lay-N-Pray", it wont be able to keep Liddell down...and that's IF he takes him down successfully. Another thing to ask yourself, can Evans go toe-to-toe in striking and be successful? I dont think age is a factor for Chuck, not yet.
He lost to Jardine given the fact that he just lost the LHW title a few months back and Jardine was well trained and had executed a very good game plan. (Although he didn't executed very well against Silva..0.36 sec. TKO)
kushBsmokin
Dr. Greenthumb
my local has Hendo at -200....I dont get it
most recent super sheet....
<table bordercolor="#cccccc" cellpadding="1" width="95%"><tbody><tr><td bgcolor="#000000" width="27%">
</td> <td bgcolor="#000000" width="16%">
</td> <td bgcolor="#000000" width="14%">
</td> <td bgcolor="#000000" width="14%">
</td> <td bgcolor="#000000" width="15%">
</td> </tr> <tr> <td bgcolor="#000000">
</td> <td bgcolor="#000000">
</td> <td bgcolor="#000000">
</td> <td bgcolor="#000000">
</td> <td bgcolor="#000000">
</td> <td bgcolor="#000000">
</td> </tr> <tr> <td bgcolor="#000000">Chuck Liddell</td> <td bgcolor="#000000">
</td> <td bgcolor="#000000"> </td> <td bgcolor="#000000"> </td> <td bgcolor="#000000"> </td> <td bgcolor="#000000"> </td> <td bgcolor="#000000"> </td> </tr> <tr> <td bgcolor="#000000">Dan Henderson</td> <td bgcolor="#000000">
</td> <td bgcolor="#000000"> </td> <td bgcolor="#000000"> </td> <td bgcolor="#000000"> </td> <td bgcolor="#000000"> </td> <td bgcolor="#000000"> </td> </tr> <tr> <td bgcolor="#000000">Rich Franklin</td> <td bgcolor="#000000">
</td> <td bgcolor="#000000"> </td> <td bgcolor="#000000"> </td> <td bgcolor="#000000"> </td> <td bgcolor="#000000"> </td> <td bgcolor="#000000"> </td> </tr> <tr> <td bgcolor="#000000">Ryo Chonan</td> <td bgcolor="#000000">
<table bordercolor="#cccccc" cellpadding="1" width="95%"><tbody><tr><td bgcolor="#000000" width="27%">
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]UFC 88 Odds[/FONT]
</td> <td bgcolor="#000000" width="14%">
</td> <td bgcolor="#000000">
</td> <td bgcolor="#000000">
</td> <td bgcolor="#000000">
</td> <td bgcolor="#000000">
</td> <td bgcolor="#000000">
</td> </tr> <tr> <td bgcolor="#000000">Chuck Liddell</td> <td bgcolor="#000000">
-245
</td> <td bgcolor="#000000">-285
</td> <td bgcolor="#000000">-260
</td> <td bgcolor="#000000">-260
</td> <td bgcolor="#000000">-290
</td> </tr> <tr> <td bgcolor="#000000">Rashad Evans</td> <td bgcolor="#000000">+225
</td> <td bgcolor="#000000">+225
</td> <td bgcolor="#000000">+200
</td> <td bgcolor="#000000">+200
</td> <td bgcolor="#000000">+230
</td> </tr> <tr> <td bgcolor="#000000"> </td> <td bgcolor="#000000"> </td> <td bgcolor="#000000"> </td> <td bgcolor="#000000"> </td> <td bgcolor="#000000"> </td> <td bgcolor="#000000"> </td> </tr> <tr> <td bgcolor="#000000">Dan Henderson</td> <td bgcolor="#000000">
-195
</td> <td bgcolor="#000000">-210
</td> <td bgcolor="#000000">-185
</td> <td bgcolor="#000000">-240
</td> <td bgcolor="#000000">-235
</td> </tr> <tr> <td bgcolor="#000000">Ro Palhares</td> <td bgcolor="#000000">+175
</td> <td bgcolor="#000000">+170
</td> <td bgcolor="#000000">+145
</td> <td bgcolor="#000000">+190
</td> <td bgcolor="#000000">+185
</td> </tr> <tr> <td bgcolor="#000000"> </td> <td bgcolor="#000000"> </td> <td bgcolor="#000000"> </td> <td bgcolor="#000000"> </td> <td bgcolor="#000000"> </td> <td bgcolor="#000000"> </td> </tr> <tr> <td bgcolor="#000000">Rich Franklin</td> <td bgcolor="#000000">
-230
</td> <td bgcolor="#000000">-255
</td> <td bgcolor="#000000">-230
</td> <td bgcolor="#000000">-270
</td> <td bgcolor="#000000">-265
</td> </tr> <tr> <td bgcolor="#000000">Matt Hamill</td> <td bgcolor="#000000">+210
</td> <td bgcolor="#000000">+205
</td> <td bgcolor="#000000">+180
</td> <td bgcolor="#000000">+210
</td> <td bgcolor="#000000">+205
</td> </tr> <tr> <td bgcolor="#000000"> </td> <td bgcolor="#000000"> </td> <td bgcolor="#000000"> </td> <td bgcolor="#000000"> </td> <td bgcolor="#000000"> </td> <td bgcolor="#000000"> </td> </tr> <tr> <td bgcolor="#000000">Ma Kampmann</td> <td bgcolor="#000000">+135
</td> <td bgcolor="#000000">+140
</td> <td bgcolor="#000000">+125
</td> <td bgcolor="#000000">+115
</td> <td bgcolor="#000000">+120
</td> </tr> <tr> <td bgcolor="#000000">Nate Marquardt</td> <td bgcolor="#000000">-145
</td> <td bgcolor="#000000">-170
</td> <td bgcolor="#000000">-155
</td> <td bgcolor="#000000">-145
</td> <td bgcolor="#000000">-150
</td> </tr> <tr> <td bgcolor="#000000"> </td> <td bgcolor="#000000"> </td> <td bgcolor="#000000"> </td> <td bgcolor="#000000"> </td> <td bgcolor="#000000"> </td> <td bgcolor="#000000"> </td> </tr> <tr> <td bgcolor="#000000">Ryo Chonan</td> <td bgcolor="#000000">
-120
</td> <td bgcolor="#000000">-125
</td> <td bgcolor="#000000">-130
</td> <td bgcolor="#000000">-120
</td> <td bgcolor="#000000">-125
</td> </tr> <tr> <td bgcolor="#000000">Roan Carneiro</td> <td bgcolor="#000000">-110
</td> <td bgcolor="#000000">-105
</td> <td bgcolor="#000000">-110
</td> <td bgcolor="#000000">-110
</td> <td bgcolor="#000000">-105
</td></tr></tbody></table>
kushBsmokin
Dr. Greenthumb
I think were obligated to take it if it dips below -200. Ive been reading about Palhares and many people think that hes going to own the ground game and submit Hendo. I just dont see it, especially at 185, I think Hendo is going to control this fight.
Pros Pick: Liddell vs. Evans
This Saturday down in sultry Atlanta, the UFC is delivering one heck of a fight card.
However, one fight in particular has the MMA world abuzz: Chuck Liddell (Pictures) versus Rashad Evans (Pictures). Looking at the fight a bit closer, the keys to victory for each combatant seem quite simple: Will it be Liddell’s superb sprawl and debilitating striking power or Evans’ athleticism and speed that reign supreme?
Sherdog.com turned to the pros for their opinions:
Jeff Monson (Pictures): I think Liddell (will win) because of experience.
Randy Couture (Pictures): Tough one to pick! Can make a case for either guy, but in my mind, it depends on Evans. We know what Chuck is gonna try to do. Can Evans pull the trigger and push himself and Chuck? That’s the question.
Nathan Quarry (Pictures): I see Chuck landing that big left hook and winning. He’s a hard man to take down.
Jaime Fletcher (Pictures): Liddell by KO. Rashad is a good fighter, but Chuck takes chances, is hard to take down and looping punches from weird angles are hard to deal with.
Tyson Griffin (Pictures): I don’t know, man. I know both those guys real well. It’ll be a good fight, but I honestly don’t know. I can see that fight going both ways.
Pete Sell (Pictures): Liddell by KO round three. Rashad is tough and will give Liddell a hell of a fight, but I have to go with the experience on this one.
Nathan Marquardt (Pictures): Evans by TKO round three.
Duke Roufus: Chuck by KO … if he can keep it standing.
Shannon Gugerty (Pictures): I’m going with Liddell by knockout.
Kevin Burns: I believe Liddell will win by KO because Evans will not be able to take him down.
Nick Thompson (Pictures): Evans by unanimous decision.
Travis Wiuff (Pictures): I think Chuck by KO in the second round. Chuck looked great against (Wanderlei) Silva, and I think he is on a mission to get his title back. A focused and determined Liddell is very scary.
Din Thomas (Pictures): Rashad is one of my favorite fighters, and I’m always pulling for him. But Chuck’s style could be kryptonite for Rashad. But Rashad seems to be hungrier and starting to peak. I’m going to pick Rashad to upset Chuck.
Rob Kimmons (Pictures): Liddell by knockout. Too much for Rashad. Just my opinion.
Jens Pulver (Pictures): I wanna see Chuck do it. He has the power and the wrestling. Rashad just doesn’t fight to his full potential, and this time it will get him rocked.
Steve Heath (Pictures): Liddell by decision. Possible TKO in the third, but I doubt it -- Evans is elusive. Liddell’s takedown defense and size/reach advantage (will win the fight).
Marvin Eastman (Pictures): Chuck by split decision. Chuck fights going backwards, and Evans will have to get Chuck on the mat to beat him.
Urijah Faber (Pictures): I think it will be Chuck by KO -- good takedown defense and heavy hands. I think if it goes to a decision, Rashad will have an edge, though.
Trevor Prangley (Pictures): Liddell over Evans because Chuck is a finisher and outpowers Rashad.
Mike Whitehead (Pictures): Liddell by KO. Rashad is too small! He would be a monster at 185. Liddell’s takedown (defense) is good enough.
Ricardo Liborio (Pictures): Liddell by KO. He’s a better striker with very good wrestling skills.
Troy Mandaloniz (Pictures): Chuck will be the Chuck we’re used to seeing. Liddell by TKO.
Travis Lutter (Pictures): Liddell (by) knockout. (He’s) too good.
Kim Couture (Pictures): I personally love both guys, so I hate doing this, but I think that Rashad has the skills and explosiveness to beat Chuck. I hope he does not get intimidated or almost star struck by Chuck. I saw that with Rashad vs. Tito. Chuck is always consistent and, of course, dangerous. If I had to bet, I would stick with Chuck with the aggressive KO in the second round.
Guy Mezger (Pictures): If Chuck is focused, he wins. (He’s) bigger and harder hitting. I don’t see Evans’ takedown ability being a factor against Liddell.
Cung Le (Pictures): Chuck will win by decision. It’s his power punching.
Dan Henderson (Pictures): Chuck by avoiding the takedown and picking him apart.
Kit Cope (Pictures): This one is an easy call. Evans has yet to face the opposition that Chuck will present him with. Any showboating within the same Octagon with Chuck will certainly be met with a swift KO. Chuck is an opportunist with impeccable timing. Everyone is so eager to count Chuck out, but he has had three of the worst possible matchups back-to-back-to-back (if you can put three backs together): an ox, a beast and a dude that is even more awkward than he is. It’ll be Chuck with a finish for sure. Evans is being welcomed to the next level with a trial by fire.
Brodie Farber (Pictures): Have to go with Liddell. He will prevent the takedown and KO Evans late in the second or third.
Eddy Millis (Pictures): Liddell by left hook. KO in round one.
James Fanshier (Pictures): I don’t see Rashad being able to impose his will on Chuck. Liddell will win the first, wobble him in the second and Rashad will make it close in the third. Chuck 29-27.
Juanito Ibarra: I’m picking Liddell, man. Liddell’s too hungry, and coming off this injury, he’s very focused. I look for a knockout in the second round. I don’t think it’ll go three rounds; I think he’ll finish him. As for Rashad, not taking nothing from him. He’s a kid who keeps learning and comes from a great camp. I like Rashad a lot, but I think Liddell’s game plan coming to destroy him will be too much.
Total Pros Picks: 32
Pros who picked Liddell: 27
Pros who picked Evans: 3
Pros who couldn’t decide: 2
wouldn't you think the Pros have a good feel for which fighter has a better chance of winning????
This Saturday down in sultry Atlanta, the UFC is delivering one heck of a fight card.
However, one fight in particular has the MMA world abuzz: Chuck Liddell (Pictures) versus Rashad Evans (Pictures). Looking at the fight a bit closer, the keys to victory for each combatant seem quite simple: Will it be Liddell’s superb sprawl and debilitating striking power or Evans’ athleticism and speed that reign supreme?
Sherdog.com turned to the pros for their opinions:
Jeff Monson (Pictures): I think Liddell (will win) because of experience.
Randy Couture (Pictures): Tough one to pick! Can make a case for either guy, but in my mind, it depends on Evans. We know what Chuck is gonna try to do. Can Evans pull the trigger and push himself and Chuck? That’s the question.
Nathan Quarry (Pictures): I see Chuck landing that big left hook and winning. He’s a hard man to take down.
Jaime Fletcher (Pictures): Liddell by KO. Rashad is a good fighter, but Chuck takes chances, is hard to take down and looping punches from weird angles are hard to deal with.
Tyson Griffin (Pictures): I don’t know, man. I know both those guys real well. It’ll be a good fight, but I honestly don’t know. I can see that fight going both ways.
Pete Sell (Pictures): Liddell by KO round three. Rashad is tough and will give Liddell a hell of a fight, but I have to go with the experience on this one.
Nathan Marquardt (Pictures): Evans by TKO round three.
Duke Roufus: Chuck by KO … if he can keep it standing.
Shannon Gugerty (Pictures): I’m going with Liddell by knockout.
Kevin Burns: I believe Liddell will win by KO because Evans will not be able to take him down.
Nick Thompson (Pictures): Evans by unanimous decision.
Travis Wiuff (Pictures): I think Chuck by KO in the second round. Chuck looked great against (Wanderlei) Silva, and I think he is on a mission to get his title back. A focused and determined Liddell is very scary.
Din Thomas (Pictures): Rashad is one of my favorite fighters, and I’m always pulling for him. But Chuck’s style could be kryptonite for Rashad. But Rashad seems to be hungrier and starting to peak. I’m going to pick Rashad to upset Chuck.
Rob Kimmons (Pictures): Liddell by knockout. Too much for Rashad. Just my opinion.
Jens Pulver (Pictures): I wanna see Chuck do it. He has the power and the wrestling. Rashad just doesn’t fight to his full potential, and this time it will get him rocked.
Steve Heath (Pictures): Liddell by decision. Possible TKO in the third, but I doubt it -- Evans is elusive. Liddell’s takedown defense and size/reach advantage (will win the fight).
Marvin Eastman (Pictures): Chuck by split decision. Chuck fights going backwards, and Evans will have to get Chuck on the mat to beat him.
Urijah Faber (Pictures): I think it will be Chuck by KO -- good takedown defense and heavy hands. I think if it goes to a decision, Rashad will have an edge, though.
Trevor Prangley (Pictures): Liddell over Evans because Chuck is a finisher and outpowers Rashad.
Mike Whitehead (Pictures): Liddell by KO. Rashad is too small! He would be a monster at 185. Liddell’s takedown (defense) is good enough.
Ricardo Liborio (Pictures): Liddell by KO. He’s a better striker with very good wrestling skills.
Troy Mandaloniz (Pictures): Chuck will be the Chuck we’re used to seeing. Liddell by TKO.
Travis Lutter (Pictures): Liddell (by) knockout. (He’s) too good.
Kim Couture (Pictures): I personally love both guys, so I hate doing this, but I think that Rashad has the skills and explosiveness to beat Chuck. I hope he does not get intimidated or almost star struck by Chuck. I saw that with Rashad vs. Tito. Chuck is always consistent and, of course, dangerous. If I had to bet, I would stick with Chuck with the aggressive KO in the second round.
Guy Mezger (Pictures): If Chuck is focused, he wins. (He’s) bigger and harder hitting. I don’t see Evans’ takedown ability being a factor against Liddell.
Cung Le (Pictures): Chuck will win by decision. It’s his power punching.
Dan Henderson (Pictures): Chuck by avoiding the takedown and picking him apart.
Kit Cope (Pictures): This one is an easy call. Evans has yet to face the opposition that Chuck will present him with. Any showboating within the same Octagon with Chuck will certainly be met with a swift KO. Chuck is an opportunist with impeccable timing. Everyone is so eager to count Chuck out, but he has had three of the worst possible matchups back-to-back-to-back (if you can put three backs together): an ox, a beast and a dude that is even more awkward than he is. It’ll be Chuck with a finish for sure. Evans is being welcomed to the next level with a trial by fire.
Brodie Farber (Pictures): Have to go with Liddell. He will prevent the takedown and KO Evans late in the second or third.
Eddy Millis (Pictures): Liddell by left hook. KO in round one.
James Fanshier (Pictures): I don’t see Rashad being able to impose his will on Chuck. Liddell will win the first, wobble him in the second and Rashad will make it close in the third. Chuck 29-27.
Juanito Ibarra: I’m picking Liddell, man. Liddell’s too hungry, and coming off this injury, he’s very focused. I look for a knockout in the second round. I don’t think it’ll go three rounds; I think he’ll finish him. As for Rashad, not taking nothing from him. He’s a kid who keeps learning and comes from a great camp. I like Rashad a lot, but I think Liddell’s game plan coming to destroy him will be too much.
Total Pros Picks: 32
Pros who picked Liddell: 27
Pros who picked Evans: 3
Pros who couldn’t decide: 2
wouldn't you think the Pros have a good feel for which fighter has a better chance of winning????
about that time.... 'an_horse'
sombody hit Evans on sportsbook ....
<!-- Pending / Previous row --> <!-- Teamname and lines --> <table class="border" id="wagerTable" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0"><tbody id="betOdds"><tr class="even" valign="middle"><td class="left">9/6/08</td> <td align="center" width="30">8005</td> <td class="left">Chuck Liddell
</td> <td align="right">-210</td> <td><input name="selection[X92-8005-Chuck-Rasha-090608MLA]" id="selection[X92-8005-Chuck-Rasha-090608MLA]" value="X92-8005-Chuck-Rasha-090608|MLA|1|100|210|0|-210" onclick="checkMoney(this.name)" type="checkbox"></td> <td align="right">OFF</td> <td><input name="selection[X92-8005-Chuck-Rasha-090608PSA]" id="selection[X92-8005-Chuck-Rasha-090608PSA]" value="X92-8005-Chuck-Rasha-090608|PSA|0|0|0|0|0 ERR" onclick="checkPoint(this.name)" style="visibility: hidden;" type="checkbox"></td> <td class="overUnder" align="right">OFF</td> <td class="overUnder"><input name="selection[X92-8005-Chuck-Rasha-090608TLO]" id="selection[X92-8005-Chuck-Rasha-090608TLO]" value="X92-8005-Chuck-Rasha-090608|TLO|0|0|0|0|0 ERR" onclick="checkPoint(this.name)" style="visibility: hidden;" type="checkbox"></td> </tr> <tr class="even" align="center"> <td class="left">
</td> <td class="left">
</td> <td class="left">
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td><td>
</td> <td class="overUnder">
</td><td class="overUnder">
</td> </tr> <tr class="even" valign="middle"> <td class="left">23:15 ET</td> <td align="center" width="30">
</td> <td class="left">Rashad Evans
</td> <td align="right">+170</td> <td><input name="selection[X92-8005-Chuck-Rasha-090608MLH]" id="selection[X92-8005-Chuck-Rasha-090608MLH]" value="X92-8005-Chuck-Rasha-090608|MLH|1|170|100|0|+170" onclick="checkMoney(this.name)" type="checkbox"></td> <td align="right">OFF</td> <td><input name="selection[X92-8005-Chuck-Rasha-090608PSH]" id="selection[X92-8005-Chuck-Rasha-090608PSH]" value="X92-8005-Chuck-Rasha-090608|PSH|0|0|0|0|0 ERR" onclick="checkPoint(this.name)" style="visibility: hidden;" type="checkbox"></td> <td class="overUnder" align="right">OFF</td> <td class="overUnder"><input name="selection[X92-8005-Chuck-Rasha-090608TLU]" id="selection[X92-8005-Chuck-Rasha-090608TLU]" value="X92-8005-Chuck-Rasha-090608|TLU|0|0|0|0|0 ERR" onclick="checkPoint(this.name)" style="visibility: hidden;" type="checkbox"></td></tr></tbody></table>
sombody hit Evans on sportsbook ....
<!-- Pending / Previous row --> <!-- Teamname and lines --> <table class="border" id="wagerTable" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0"><tbody id="betOdds"><tr class="even" valign="middle"><td class="left">9/6/08</td> <td align="center" width="30">8005</td> <td class="left">Chuck Liddell
</td> <td align="right">-210</td> <td><input name="selection[X92-8005-Chuck-Rasha-090608MLA]" id="selection[X92-8005-Chuck-Rasha-090608MLA]" value="X92-8005-Chuck-Rasha-090608|MLA|1|100|210|0|-210" onclick="checkMoney(this.name)" type="checkbox"></td> <td align="right">OFF</td> <td><input name="selection[X92-8005-Chuck-Rasha-090608PSA]" id="selection[X92-8005-Chuck-Rasha-090608PSA]" value="X92-8005-Chuck-Rasha-090608|PSA|0|0|0|0|0 ERR" onclick="checkPoint(this.name)" style="visibility: hidden;" type="checkbox"></td> <td class="overUnder" align="right">OFF</td> <td class="overUnder"><input name="selection[X92-8005-Chuck-Rasha-090608TLO]" id="selection[X92-8005-Chuck-Rasha-090608TLO]" value="X92-8005-Chuck-Rasha-090608|TLO|0|0|0|0|0 ERR" onclick="checkPoint(this.name)" style="visibility: hidden;" type="checkbox"></td> </tr> <tr class="even" align="center"> <td class="left">
</td> <td class="left">
</td> <td class="left">
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td><td>
</td> <td class="overUnder">
</td><td class="overUnder">
</td> </tr> <tr class="even" valign="middle"> <td class="left">23:15 ET</td> <td align="center" width="30">
</td> <td class="left">Rashad Evans
</td> <td align="right">+170</td> <td><input name="selection[X92-8005-Chuck-Rasha-090608MLH]" id="selection[X92-8005-Chuck-Rasha-090608MLH]" value="X92-8005-Chuck-Rasha-090608|MLH|1|170|100|0|+170" onclick="checkMoney(this.name)" type="checkbox"></td> <td align="right">OFF</td> <td><input name="selection[X92-8005-Chuck-Rasha-090608PSH]" id="selection[X92-8005-Chuck-Rasha-090608PSH]" value="X92-8005-Chuck-Rasha-090608|PSH|0|0|0|0|0 ERR" onclick="checkPoint(this.name)" style="visibility: hidden;" type="checkbox"></td> <td class="overUnder" align="right">OFF</td> <td class="overUnder"><input name="selection[X92-8005-Chuck-Rasha-090608TLU]" id="selection[X92-8005-Chuck-Rasha-090608TLU]" value="X92-8005-Chuck-Rasha-090608|TLU|0|0|0|0|0 ERR" onclick="checkPoint(this.name)" style="visibility: hidden;" type="checkbox"></td></tr></tbody></table>
kushBsmokin
Dr. Greenthumb
Hendo down to -185 at my book
haha bjorks f'n love it... i called my shit in too early, so had to lay 275 to win a dollar
CrazyBetter
Pretty much a regular
just got it at -221 at pinnacle
CrazyBetter
Pretty much a regular
72% of fan voting on Lidell, havent seen anyting above 60% in a LONG WHILE
Similar threads
