Tuesday Discussion Thread

VirginiaCavs

VirginiaCavs

CTG Super Moderator
Staff member
May 11 Tue 2021

3:45 PM
971Texas RangersJ. Lyles -R+139O 8
-115
972San Francisco GiantsL. Webb -R+1 Markets-151U 8
-105
6:10 PM
973Chicago CubsA. Alzolay -R+159O 7
-115
974Cleveland IndiansS. Bieber -R-173U 7
-105
6:35 PM
951Cincinnati RedsJ. Hoffman -R+105O 8
+105
952Pittsburgh PiratesJ. Brubaker -R+1 Markets-115U 8
-125
7:05 PM
953Philadelphia PhilliesC. Anderson -R+109O 9
-120
954Washington NationalsE. Fedde -R-119U 9
+100
7:10 PM
961Kansas City RoyalsB. Singer -R-110O 8
+105
962Detroit TigersM. Boyd -L+100U 8
-125
7:10 PM
963Oakland AthleticsC. Bassitt -R+125O 9
-110
964Boston Red SoxN. Eovaldi -R-135U 9
-110
7:10 PM
965New York YankeesJ. Montgomery -L-128O 8½
-110
966Tampa Bay RaysL. Patino -R+118U 8½
-110
7:40 PM
955St. Louis CardinalsK. Kim -L+114O 7½
-105
956Milwaukee BrewersF. Peralta -R-124U 7½
-115
8:10 PM
967Minnesota TwinsK. Maeda -R+100O 8½
+105
968Chicago White SoxD. Cease -R-110U 8½
-125
8:10 PM
969Los Angeles AngelsS. Ohtani -R+128O 8½
-105
970Houston AstrosL. McCullers Jr. -R+1 Markets-138U 8½
-115
9:40 PM
959Miami MarlinsP. Lopez -R+100O 8
-110
960Arizona DiamondbacksM. Bumgarner -L+1 Markets-110U 8
-110
 
Interesting number. Ray has pretty much dropped his changeup and has been looking better start after start. He was excellent last start vs OAK. Wilson isn't a major league pitcher and has bad underlying numbers. The question is why the close line?
 
first one i'll dive into is PHI dogged to Eric Fedde. Nats are in a rebuild, lineup is filled with guys who didn't make it at other clubs and then what looks like a poor decision to get Bell.

Anderson is a pitch-to-contact guy who can spin a good outing every once in a while, but is someone we shouldn't be backing unless it's a great situation. Not sure this is one, Fedde has gotten hit hard by ATL but better in his other four starts. PHI has some of the power that ATL possesses, but not a ton from the R side since Hoskins can't make contact.

In terms of getting through lineups, PHI will have far more potholes and Realmuto is in the cleanup spot. Anderson must get through Turner and Soto 1-2 then there are not many threats behind those besides the ones normal MLB hitters pose. Bullpen is better on the PHI side when they're at their best, but scary Neris showed up Saturday and he may be one of those guys who gets used for low-leverage 9th innings when Coonrod and Alvarez get the scary parts of the order. Hand blew two leads on Saturday, but he's been trustworthy and reliable according to his numbers and saves vs blown saves.

This one feels like it needs a good outing from Anderson, which is not guaranteed vs anybody and then with Neris concerns and on the road, I may just skip and let Fedde get blasted
 
Smokeshow99 said:
Interesting number. Ray has pretty much dropped his changeup and has been looking better start after start. He was excellent last start vs OAK. Wilson isn't a major league pitcher and has bad underlying numbers. The question is why the close line?
Click to expand...

why the close line? ATL has a far better bullpen and is at home with Acuna leading off. Not many teams would be favored in this spot against them and not sure Robbie Ray deserves it. Not sure when he was using a change? He's been fastball 95 and slider 83 for pretty much his entire career when i've watched

Wilson does not look great, but he can get through a lineup as I've watched him do it against me before. Not sure TOR lineup is a buy to me yet, though they're starting to look like they have enough experience that they can hit reliably instead of being so up and down.

Ray three straight outings without a walk is nothing short of incredible, one of them a good one vs ATL, but i'm not sure he's suddenly figured out his control after being traded to TOR. He's always had the K ability, 1-4 in the ATL lineup will be tough and then not sure about 5-8. TOR lost his first three starts this year, but he's been competitive in all of them and that's a good sign. I fear the TOR bullpen though and they'll likely need 9 outs. Romano seems to be the Swiss Army knife deployed anywhere, Borucki and Chatwood (yikes) being the other two high-leverage options thanks to all the injuries is scary with all those ATL threats. And we also have to consider ATL's ability to come back late in games.

ATL pen is LHP heavy, which does not match TOR using all R beside Biggio. Still prefer that side, but I guess Wilson's struggles will make me a watcher of this one
 
Ray's a 4 pitch pitcher? FB, SL, CV, CH. He threw the change 15% one game, rest 2%, barely a 4th pitch, didn't throw it last game. Could be a recording blip? Only 2021 has him throwing a change-up.

Ray had the worst control in baseball and this year I haven't seen it. His velocity is up and stayed up this year comparitively to other years.
 
GWarner27 said:
why the close line? ATL has a far better bullpen and is at home with Acuna leading off. Not many teams would be favored in this spot against them and not sure Robbie Ray deserves it. Not sure when he was using a change? He's been fastball 95 and slider 83 for pretty much his entire career when i've watched

Wilson does not look great, but he can get through a lineup as I've watched him do it against me before. Not sure TOR lineup is a buy to me yet, though they're starting to look like they have enough experience that they can hit reliably instead of being so up and down.

Ray three straight outings without a walk is nothing short of incredible, one of them a good one vs ATL, but i'm not sure he's suddenly figured out his control after being traded to TOR. He's always had the K ability, 1-4 in the ATL lineup will be tough and then not sure about 5-8. TOR lost his first three starts this year, but he's been competitive in all of them and that's a good sign. I fear the TOR bullpen though and they'll likely need 9 outs. Romano seems to be the Swiss Army knife deployed anywhere, Borucki and Chatwood (yikes) being the other two high-leverage options thanks to all the injuries is scary with all those ATL threats. And we also have to consider ATL's ability to come back late in games.

ATL pen is LHP heavy, which does not match TOR using all R beside Biggio. Still prefer that side, but I guess Wilson's struggles will make me a watcher of this one
Click to expand...
They brought chatwood in and limited him to pretty much 2 pitches; his fastball and his off speed. Chatwood talked about how he could throw 4-5 pitches, Toronto signed him pretty much saying no mas on all the pitch variety and that he could more effective this way. So far so good, if there's one thing the Jays brass loves it's high velo the rest they feel Pete Walker can figure it out with the pitcher.
 
Smokeshow99 said:
Ray's a 4 pitch pitcher? FB, SL, CV, CH. He threw the change 15% one game, rest 2%, barely a 4th pitch, didn't throw it last game. Could be a recording blip? Only 2021 has him throwing a change-up.

Ray had the worst control in baseball and this year I haven't seen it. His velocity is up and stayed up this year comparitively to other years.
Click to expand...
2014 - 26%
2015 - 8%
2016 - 6%
2017 - 0%
2018 - 0%
2019 - 0%
2020 - 2.8%
2021- 4.8%

^^ started to rely more on the sinker, slider and curveball in those 0% years
 
Means off the no-no is tough to trust, but NYM isn't going to be too tough to get through. His numbers have been great against a collection of pretty weak offenses after starting the year @ BOS and then struggling @ NYY. Bullpen continues to overperform, at what point do we believe they can keep it up? Valdez at closer seems legit, others not sure but Means ability to get deep with 5/7 outings into the 7th makes that less scary. Lindor much stronger batting L so he flips around then McNeil and Conforto surround him so first three batters should yield an advantage to Means, Alonso looks like a HR threat but he wants the ball over the plate and the change-up should be effective. Rest of that lineup is easy outs so it's about managing Alonso and that's certainly doable

Stroman's slider has been good and the market has liked him a bunch this season, but i haven't. The bullpen behind him looks like May to Diaz and that's better than what BAL has, plus they're at home. Stroman has started three straight losses after 3-0 start, not all his fault and defense has been a problem, but he's either been sub-1 WHIP or 1.6+ and that's quite a divide.

Day off yesterday was much needed since there were heavy workloads from the big NYM bullpen arms, but that shouldn't be an issue even though Diaz has worked 3 of 4. LHP Fry looks like the only unavailable arm for BAL, or at least possibly unavailable due to working b2b. He has not worked b3b this season, but Scott likely fills in for him and Means will be on that side. A good start from him and having only one L in the bullpen won't be as big of an impact.

Last thing to consider is BAL lineup, which isn't great but Mullins has been on fire. Hays with a good start, Mancini the heart and soul then Mountcastle heating up lately after a cold start. Galvis hitting 5th is hilarious, but Franco and Ruiz have some power and Severino has been a decent bat for a C. Two poor lineups really and one team has a starter off the no-no while the other is coming off a couple bad outings.

BAL priced at 43% to win this one seems worth a stab
 
Jays/Braves - Iossogna
Yanks/Rays - morales
A's/Red Sox - Blakney
Royals/Tigers - vanover
Cards/brewrs - Randazzo
O's/Mutts - Timmons
Philllies/Nats - Diaz
 
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