Tuesday Discussion Thread

VirginiaCavs

VirginiaCavs

CTG Super Moderator
Staff member
Apr 20 Tue 2021

3:10 PM
921Los Angeles DodgersJ. Urias -L-197O 8
-120
922Seattle MarinersM. Gonzales -L+1 Markets+181U 8
+100
5:10 PM
911Chicago White SoxC. Rodon -L-114O 8
+103
912Cleveland IndiansZ. Plesac -R+104U 8
-123
5:35 PM
923Atlanta BravesC. Morton -R+111O 9
+100
924New York YankeesJ. Tallion -R-121U 9
-120
5:40 PM
901Arizona DiamondbacksZ. Gallen -R+121O 8
-107
902Cincinnati RedsL. Castillo -R-131U 8
-113
5:40 PM
925Pittsburgh PiratesT. Anderson -L+122O 8½
-103
926Detroit TigersM. Fulmer -R-132U 8½
-117
5:40 PM
927Baltimore OriolesM. Harvey -R+115O 8½
-102
928Miami MarlinsN. Neidert -R-125U 8½
-118
6:05 PM
903St. Louis CardinalsA. Wainwright -R+115O 9
-105
904Washington NationalsP. Corbin -L+1 Markets-125U 9
-115
6:05 PM
905San Francisco GiantsL. Webb -R+140O 8½
+103
906Philadelphia PhilliesZ. Wheeler -R+1 Markets-152U 8½
-123
6:10 PM
913Toronto Blue JaysH. Ryu -L+107O 8½
+100
914Boston Red SoxE. Rodriguez -L-117U 8½
-120
6:40 PM
907New York MetsT. Walker -R-135
908Chicago CubsJ. Arrieta -R+125
8:38 PM
917Texas RangersJ. Lyles -R+184O 8½
-123
918Los Angeles AngelsS. Ohtani -R+1 Markets-200U 8½
+103
9:10 PM
909Milwaukee BrewersC. Burnes -R+110O 7
-110
910San Diego PadresC. Paddack -R+1 Markets-120U 7
-110
 
Cardinals day after scoring a bunch pretty much a auto fade, just have to look closer at Corbin and make sure there not underlying issues for his poor start?
 
2daBank said:
Cardinals day after scoring a bunch pretty much a auto fade, just have to look closer at Corbin and make sure there not underlying issues for his poor start?
Click to expand...

Well he is a lefty. Also, his pitches have way less horizontal movement to them this year. But velo looks ok.
 
Cards Tt over has to be a play. Corbin has had less than nothing and last start has zero control. I’d also look at az TT as Castillo hasn’t been great either
 
2daBank said:
Cardinals day after scoring a bunch pretty much a auto fade, just have to look closer at Corbin and make sure there not underlying issues for his poor start?
Click to expand...

was he COVID+ or was he just rusty from being held out due to COVID suspicions?
 
Gallen showed some promise in his first start, ARI bringing up all their closer prospects is either a good sign or a bad one. Castillo has been inconsistent at best to start the year, i do like the CIN bullpen though

Not as big of a seller on the StL offense as 2da, especially think some momentum carries over as they smacked Ross around 2nd time through until he exited. Waino is tough to expect a lot from, but he uses that curveball to get weak contact and that seems repeatable even if he doesn't have high K numbers. Corbin is one of those ARI starters who has a great slider but relies on it a ton and it's not in the K-zone. Hand with velocity issues last year probably getting more problematic with age and the rest of the bullpen is hittable. Huddy doesn't seem like the same guy since using all those bullets in the WS run and Rainey has never looked that dominant

Webb in a weird spot coming out of the bullpen for an inning last week and then being put on the COVID IL and now starting. SF continues to outperform their talent, it's kinda amazing what they've been doing when i think everybody thought they were in for a few 100-loss seasons, but I'm not really sure how they do it. Wheeler fastball command was bad @ATL and as discussed i'm not a fan of the PHI offense, but probably not a road team i want to back here as winning in regulation before little league rules commence will be tough since McGee won't be closing as he's on the COVID list.

Taijuan was a lean before i saw him open as a massive favorite. That makes little sense to me, but CHC may be that bad

Burnes has been awesome, Padddack still a two-pitch guy and i'm on record of not being a SD believer. Does that lineup really scare you? Even if Hosmer is starting to hit, bullpen hasn't been phenomenal either. Certainly if they get a lead late then it looks unlikely to be blown, especially with the quiet MIL lineup, but Pomeranz gave up that crucial insurance run last night. Burnes has been awesome as said, MIL lineup leaves plenty to be desired but another good bullpen and I liked the 106 i was seeing before i started typing as now there's no plus-money available

Plesac got hit pretty hard in his last start IIRC, home dog with that bullpen and CHW having to cover the last two innings in Boston yesterday with position players makes me wonder about their bullpen availability. Rodon was awesome with the near perfect game last start, but consistency has been a problem for him and this would be a reasonable spot to stumble (even if the CLE bats provide a soft landing). Lineup discrepancy is pretty wide though

Ryu has been on fire, maybe he slips up here but i'm not as big of a believer in this BOS start. Bullpen behind him is a big concern, though if Ryu can cover 7 innings i think Borucki/Phelps to Dolis can hang on and maybe won't be necessary if TOR has a big lead. ERod has a great arm, but not sure he's been that good yet and coming off the heart problem that made him miss last season will make it hard for him to reach the form that he was in during the 2019 season. Each start he gets closer and more rust comes off, but Ryu dogged is too much for BOS to support imho
 
Berrios and Shoemaker can be discussed together, like them as dogs as i think both can outpitch the opposing starter (Luzardo, Manaea respectively), but not sure who has come down with COVID for MIN. Sounds like Garlick and anti-vaxxer Simmons, if that's all then we need to evaluate the rust from not playing for three days. Definitely some rest in there, too, but Shoe was supposed to start Saturday and is now going on extended, extended rest. OAK bullpen isn't what it was last year or the year before, Petit/Diekman to Trivino is not a lockdown group. MIN lost some important arms themselves, however, Robles to Colome leaves a lot of potential blowups even if Colome's stats over the past two seasons were awesome

Gonzales a huge price, though he hasn't started the year well and LAD is not the offense to accommodate him

Taillon not worth backing as favorite, but is very cheap for NYY at home against a bullpen game. Not sure their current form makes this one sensible though

Tyler Anderson has been better and has always been a tricky left with that windup, not sure Fulmer is back and likely not going deep in this game as he comes back from injury. PIT been playing far above expectations, bullpen not so bad with RickRod mowing people down at the end. DET bullpen does not have a single arm I trust and that's not great as a favorite

Neidert been good and a cheap price at home is what has it on my list. MIA bullpen has been a problem and not sure Marte status
 
Weather in Cleveland turned cold again overnight, will almost certainly see snow starting this evening. 10 mph wind in from CF. Not good hitting weather. Tribe numbers putrid vs Rodon. Obviously, CWS ripped Plesac's tits off in meeting last week, but I like that kid and believe he'll bounce back from hands down his worst start in the bigs. White Sox/Tribe FF under 4 (-115) for me. Takes 5 to beat me.
 
Morton now starting, but no Acuna

Very intrigued to be against NYY, ATL not perfect but Morton should outpitch Taillon and we can do a lot worse than Matzek to Minter to Smith (though all LHP bullpen doesn't fit so well against R heavy NYY
 
Big daddy naught said:
Dbags over 3.5 tt and debating cards Tt over or the game over so far
Click to expand...

bro, never count on cards to score the day after they hang a big number, even against scrub pitchers! Last week vs nats the same Joe Ross they smacked around last night shit on them after they hung a bunch on Strasburg the night before! This been a thing going back several years wit them, day after a offensive outburst they tend to not score shit!!!

i Feel like Corbin prob getting himself into game shape by now amd this a perfect spot for him to be good! He has thrown way less sliders than typical thus far, I assume a pitch he will feel more comfy with every start, and cards a great lineup to break a bunch of those out!! I know cardinals have the highest ops in baseball against lefties so far, and I know their lineup screams they should hit lefties, but they never do as well as you would expect. My thinking a large reason for that is many lefties throw lot more change ups and other off speed offerings to righties, cards were one the worst change up/ off speed hitting teams in baseball last few years. God knows I’m wrong plenty but I just think expecting them to score more than 3-4 tonight a pretty low percentage proposition.
 
Understand trying to take waino out the equation, and cards do tend to give him some support but just don’t see it here. Waino has had some fantastic starts with Vanover calling balls and strikes. I just think -125 for nats is cheap considering cards track record in this spot and how much worse waino been away from busch the last 5-6 years (excluding last season which I think we all agree was a huge outlier).
 
2daBank said:
bro, never count on cards to score the day after they hang a big number, even against scrub pitchers! Last week vs nats the same Joe Ross they smacked around last night shit on them after they hung a bunch on Strasburg the night before! This been a thing going back several years wit them, day after a offensive outburst they tend to not score shit!!!

i Feel like Corbin prob getting himself into game shape by now amd this a perfect spot for him to be good! He has thrown way less sliders than typical thus far, I assume a pitch he will feel more comfy with every start, and cards a great lineup to break a bunch of those out!! I know cardinals have the highest ops in baseball against lefties so far, and I know their lineup screams they should hit lefties, but they never do as well as you would expect. My thinking a large reason for that is many lefties throw lot more change ups and other off speed offerings to righties, cards were one the worst change up/ off speed hitting teams in baseball last few years. God knows I’m wrong plenty but I just think expecting them to score more than 3-4 tonight a pretty low percentage proposition.
Click to expand...
I hear you. It’s just Corbin has been that bad. My only concern is they keep him in long enough lol
 
2daBank said:
Understand trying to take waino out the equation, and cards do tend to give him some support but just don’t see it here. Waino has had some fantastic starts with Vanover calling balls and strikes. I just think -125 for nats is cheap considering cards track record in this spot and how much worse waino been away from busch the last 5-6 years (excluding last season which I think we all agree was a huge outlier).
Click to expand...
Why I was considering over
 
Big daddy naught said:
I hear you. It’s just Corbin has been that bad. My only concern is they keep him in long enough lol
Click to expand...

he has been but we know he capable of much better. Think it was just the layoff, I just read he didn’t himself have Rona just was out due to contact tracing so I think he is more likely than not to start pitching better and this the perfect spot with cards off the good game! My only small concern is the fact we been hitting lefties for a change. Just not sure I buy that to keep up, certainly not at the level they have been. Kinda seems like a perfect storm where cards come back down to earth and Corbin pitches better. Just a bummer it lined pretty much like that what expected. Be nice if cards were favs!! Lol.
 
Wow. What up with that line in cincy? Snakes at +135 or better seems like a great price to back Gallen. Castillo been really struggling against lefties and snakes are throwing out 6 of them in their lineup tonight!!
 
2daBank said:
Wow. What up with that line in cincy? Snakes at +135 or better seems like a great price to back Gallen. Castillo been really struggling against lefties and snakes are throwing out 6 of them in their lineup tonight!!
Click to expand...

Gallen started the season late and probably won't go too deep so you got a bullpen full of youth against a solid CIN pen on the road and look at the terrible Snakes lineup
 
GWarner27 said:
Gallen started the season late and probably won't go too deep so you got a bullpen full of youth against a solid CIN pen on the road and look at the terrible Snakes lineup
Click to expand...

they all lefties tho and castlllo has struggled against those. Snakes pen looks like it been better than reds but I could definitely go Ff instead. Gallen went 4 innings in his 1st start, most guys went deeper their second starts so figure he prob go at least 5, maybe 6 if he efficient
 
Dont love that milw took gm 1, and really don’t like line flipping but getting plus money on Corbin seems like the smart play facing Paddack who really hasn’t lived up to the hype, he really only throwing 2 pitches and his fastball not been effective as before and doesn’t appear to have the “rise” it once did, looks more like a 2 seamer now but with no sink. Just don’t like the fact I see some books shifting brewers to favs. Don’t like ump for Ff under nor do I trust paddock even against a light hitting milw squad.
 
2daBank said:
Dont love that milw took gm 1, and really don’t like line flipping but getting plus money on Corbin seems like the smart play facing Paddack who really hasn’t lived up to the hype, he really only throwing 2 pitches and his fastball not been effective as before and doesn’t appear to have the “rise” it once did, looks more like a 2 seamer now but with no sink. Just don’t like the fact I see some books shifting brewers to favs. Don’t like ump for Ff under nor do I trust paddock even against a light hitting milw squad.
Click to expand...

good god man use the last name

Tatis and Machado not in the lineup
 
2daBank said:
Where you see lineup out yet? And wtf you talking bout use what last name??
Click to expand...
When patrick corbin and corbin burnes are both starting on the same night and we're talking about both of them it's really confusing when you refer to both as Corbin

MLB Daily Starting Lineups

The most up-to-date MLB daily player starting lineups, gathered hours before game time.
www.baseballpress.com www.baseballpress.com
 
GWarner27 said:
When patrick corbin and corbin burnes are both starting on the same night and we're talking about both of them it's really confusing when you refer to both as Corbin

MLB Daily Starting Lineups

The most up-to-date MLB daily player starting lineups, gathered hours before game time.
www.baseballpress.com www.baseballpress.com
Click to expand...

lol. I honestly didn’t even notice it since I didn’t talk about both games in same post. I don’t think I ever say Corbin for Burnes, dunno why I did there. Whoops
 
Freaking Soto sitting out. He shoulda been up but instead punk ass shwarber strikes out with runners on corners. Mfer. Guess I shoulda checked lineups.
 
Well shit. Nats yanked Corbin after only 76 pitches to get thru 6! Sure woulda liked to see him pitch another inning or 2
 
Big daddy naught said:
Looks like you were right about cards not hitting tonight and Corbin being ok
Click to expand...

bro it is almost as certain as death and taxes, when cards score a big number the following day they not gonna score shit!!! Hope I talked you out of it? Pissed they pulled Corbin tho.
 
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