L
Lareux
Guest
I hope you realize that my post was satirical in nature in response to Alex's post. Secondly I don't know where you get that the Patriots only do this at home and in cold weather conditions, the Colts suspected it during their regular season game at Indy in a dome. The games played in wet/snow/cold weather conditions simply demonstrates the difference as the Patriots don't turn over the ball at historical rates while their opponents fumble at worse than normal rates.
That chart speaks for itself, the data points for the Patriots vs the rest of the league is well beyond a statistical outlier. Logic would be acknowledging what that chart demonstrates which is the Patriots have been doing this for years.
Did you even look at the chart for Christ's Sake ? It explicitly has fumbles per play on there for crying out loud.
Much better explanation and proof than I tried to give yesterday (same idea though)....the bolded parts are the original writer's, not the person checking into his "analysis."
I actually went back and researched 5 year periods for the entire NFL over the last 25 years. The Patriots ratio of 187 plays to 1 fumble is the BEST of ANY team in the NFL for ANY 5 year span of time over the last 25 years. Not was it just the best, it wasn't close: 1. 2010-2014 Patriots: 187 plays/fumble
2. 2009-2013 Patriots: 156 plays/fumble
3. 2006-2010 Colts: 156 plays/fumble
Here, the author curiously ranks the Patriots #2 and the Colts #3, despite the fact that the teams appear to have the same number of plays per fumble (156).
4. 2005-2009 Colts: 153 plays/fumble
5. 2007-2011 Patriots: 149 plays/fumble
6. 2008-2012 Patriots: 148 plays/fumble
7. 2010-2014 Texans: 140 plays/fumble
8. 2004-2008 Colts: 139 plays/fumble
9. 2006-2010 Jets: 135 plays/fumble
10. 1999-2003 Chiefs: 134 plays/fumble
At this point, an intelligent reader should pick up on one issue with the author's metric. The team sharing the 'suspiciously high plays-per-fumble rate' mantle with the Patriots is none other than the Peyton Manning quarterbacked Indianapolis Colts.
Why does this matter?
Because, Manning and Brady are generally among the quickest in football at getting rid of the ball when dropping back to throw. In fact, according to Pro Football Focus (PFF), Manning led the league in time-to-throw in 2014, at a lightning-quick 2.24 seconds. Brady finished 3rd in 2014, and also ranked 3rd, 1st, and 4th between 2011 and 2013 (PFF stats only go as far back as 2011). Even better, Brady also posted the league's lowest sack-per-dropback rate in 2014.
It's not a great strategy to penalize Brady and the Patriots for a lack of fumbles when there was a lower chance of fumbling to begin with, based on the team's play-calling and personnel that yield quick throws and incompletions, as well as fewer sacks.
So what's a better metric?
Well, one idea would be to compare running backs on fumbles per rush, or receivers on fumbles per reception. To look at quarterbacks is a much more difficult task, given the different speeds at which they get rid of the ball and how often they take sacks, but you might look at something like fumbles per sack or fumbles per QB hit. But the point remains: when quarterbacks throw quickly and avoid sacks, it's seemingly much less likely for the play to end in a fumble. More on this later.
Ironically, as my study yesterday showed, the Patriots performance in wet weather home games mysteriously turned ridiculous starting in 2007. In 2006, they went 0-2. From 2007 onward, they went 14-1.
But the Patriots have been really good between 2007-2014 whether or not it's raining. They were also good at home (57-7), in their division (36-10), in their conference (75-21), and out of their conference (25-7). Also, is the author really using a sample size of two before 2006 in his argument?
Let's get nerdy again. From 2007-2014 the Patriots were 100-28 in the regular season for a winning percentage of 78.1%. If you randomly choose any set of 15 of those 128 games, that set of games will be 14-1 or 15-0 a little more than 11% of the time. In other words, that's not statistically significantly different than their overall winning percentage. In other words also, this argument is garbage.