Timh Bowl Thread

Timh

Timh

CTG Psychiatrist - Dr. Tim
Regular Season Results 2006
Sides and Totals 61-38-2, +30.84 units
ML 10-6, +6.93
Overall +37.77

Division 1AA Playoffs +3.25 units

Busier than hell lately with not as much time to devote to my sports gambling passion. Ended up starting the bowl season out with TCU which was a good thing. I'll add my plays in this thread as I go along.

BYU -3 -115 2.3/2- I told myself after last year's bowls that I needed to focus more on motivation for these bowls than basing things on what happened during the regular season. Last year's Wisconsin/Auburn game is an example that still really sticks in my craw. Auburn just didn't show up at all, and played like they didn't care and Wisky was motivated to the max. I see a little parallel here in this game tonight. BYU is excited to be here and Oregon is disappointed with the way they finished the season and their relegation to a lesser bowl game. I give BYU a big check mark for motivation. Oregon comes in with an unsettled situation at QB with Leaf and Dixon both likely to see action. Dixon has turned the ball over a lot which has attributed to a terrible -10 TO ratio for the Ducks who are very impressive offensively when they can hang on to the ball. BYU is solid in the TO dept at +14 and has shown a very nicely balanced offense. I think Oregon will have difficulty stopping the BYU rushing attack due to their smallish front and this will mean the LB's are going to have to cheat up which should leave the middle open for BYU's TE and medium passing range game. I think we see a high scoring ball game here but I like BYU from the motivational standpoint, consistency and balance of offense with Beck and the fact that they are not likely to turn it over as much as Oregon. Debating on an over play as well.

GL fellas :cheers:
I'll update this window with my plays and include writeups below.

South Florida -5 -107 2.14/2

Utah -2 -108 1.08/1

Central Michigan -7 -123 2.46/2

2 Tm 7 pt. tease FSU +10, FSU under 45.5 -110 2.2/2

Rutgers -7 -122 2.44/2

2 Team 6 pt. tease Rutgers -1.5, South Carolina +.5 +100 3/3

South Carolina -5 -105 2.1/2

TTech -7 -120 2.4/2

Oregon State -3 -110 1.1/1

Tenn -3.5 -109 3.27/3

WVU/GT under 47.5 -105 2.1/2

USC/Michigan over 46.5 -108 2.16/2

Oklahoma -6.5 -111 3.33/3

Louisville -10 -105 2.1/2

ND/LSU over 56 -106 3.18/3

WMich/Cin under 42.5 +101 3/3.03

So. Miss -6 -110 3.3/3

Ohio State -7 -110 5.5/5
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South Florida -5 -107 2.14/2 - I really like the speed of this So. Fla. defense and think ECU will have a very difficult time generating anything in the rushing game which will force Pinkney to throw more than they like. Pinkney is prone to bad decision making and forcing throws so I would expect him to turn the ball over a couple times. I like the versatility of SF QB Grothe who can do it with his arm and his feet. SF has played the better schedule and proven they can beat some of the tougher Big East teams. I think they will be motivated to play a better bowl this year than last when they were shutout by NCST.
 
GL on the Bulls today Timmy...no play for me there but they look solid...nice hit on the Cougs in Vegas Wed Night..
 
Utah -2 -108 1.08/1 - I like the way Utah finished the regular season, and feel like they have some positive momentum coming into the bowl. Tulsa on the other hand kind of saw their season go down the drain losing 3 out of their last 4. Utah plays pretty well when they can avoid costly turnovers, and the good news for them is that this Tulsa team doesn't force a lot of turnovers. Utes played a tougher schedule and I think are a little bit better on the LOS in this matchup.
 
Thanks fellas, appreciate it. Actually hit Hawaii too but didn't have time to post. Going to take a shot tonight with....

Central Michigan -7 -123 2.46/2 - CM passing game has been pretty impressive this year with LeFevour and company racking up over 250 ypg in the passing game and scoring about 30 ppg. CM defense has been solid vs. the run and should be able to devote a lot of resources to stopping MTSU on the ground as the MTSU passing game doesn't provide much of a threat. MTSU front seven on defense is undersized but very quick and have done a nice job this year against competition at their relative level but have struggled vs. the teams that are clearly better on the LOS (SC, Ok., Louisville). I don't see MTSU having the offense to stay with this CM team who will make plays in the passing game and score points.
 
Timmy, how well do you like this one? I ask only cause' my local will post the line later seeing it is the only game 2day and I'll probably be looking at -8/9 (possibly). You still like the Chippewa's in this spot?
 
Mags I think CM hangs 30 plus here and can't see MTSU putting up more than 17, so yes I still like it. Had to put this in here as someone posted it at another site......
 
Thanks much fellas, appreciate it!

2 team 7 pt. tease FSU +10, FSU under 45.5 -110 2.2/2 - I've gone around on this game and like both FSU and the under but essentially missed the value so I'm going to play a tease. I see this being a very low scoring game with both defenses dominating and the passing games both having some difficulty in the gusty winds (forecasted for 15-25 mph out of the NW). UCLA defensive line has done a great job pressuring the QB this year (36 sacks) and I don't think it bodes well for FSU starting the immobile Weatherford who is prone to throw late over the middle. I thought FSU made the right choice going to Lee because he gives them another option with his feet, but the coaching staff has decided to go back to Weatherford. FSU has the receivers to make plays but I'm not sure if Weatherford will get time to throw and see the matchup of the FSU OL vs. UCLA def. line being crucial to any FSU success. Defensively I expect FSU to be fine stopping the UCLA attack. Key will be turnovers and this is where FSU must improve. Their TO ratio was -10 this year and it just killed them in several games, most noticeably vs. WF in the 30-0 debacle. Anyway, I like the tease getting the 10 here in what should be a low scoring tightly contested game. I would expect FSU to win if they can avoid the crucial TO's.
 
Thanks Rexy, hope you are having a good holiday season. Did you get a chance to get home or are you stuck working?
 
Both. I went home AND was working. My parents have a slow-ass computer, so I didn't do much posting. Niffel Sunday and Monday were great for me; and I hit BYU pretty hard and Hawaii second half... but I blew with Rice...

Ready to get into the swing of this and the 50 college BB tomorrow, too...
 
They let you telecommute lol...or are you talking about working on your personal action lol...
 
Rutgers -7 -122 2.44/2 - The Big East didn't do their conference a lot of favors with some bad decision making on bowl tie-ins which unfortunately relegated Rutgers to a much poorer bowl than they should be playing in. Regardless, I think Schiano will have his team prepared to play. This team has shown great pride and resiliency all year long and will want to go out with an impressive win. KSt. offense is not good and I can't see them being able to run much vs. this quick tough Rutgers front. The KSt. passing game is also very prone to making turnovers (18 INT's on the season). Rutgers OL has done a great job run blocking for Rice and company all year long and Teel does just enough in the passing game to keep teams honest. Rutgers does a good job of taking care of the football (+8 TO ratio) and should be able to get a few TO's out of KSt. tonight. Kst. not built to come from behind.
 
Thanks fellas, GL

2 Team 6 pt. tease Rutgers -1.5, South Carolina +.5 +100 3/3
 
Nice win tonight with Rutgers Tim. I look forward to your Maryland thoughts for tomorrow's game. I'm leaning that way, but don't want to bet against you if you're on Purdue. Probably my hardest bowl game to decide so far.
 
South Carolina -5 -105 2.1/2 - I like this matchup for SC on the LOS. I think they will really be focused on pressuring Kolb and disrupting the timing of Houston's passing game and will come with a lot of pressure early and often. On the offensive side of the ball I think they will be able to get their running game going and create some nice balance for Mitchell to get an oppty. to make some plays in the passing game. I think Houston is outmatched in this game and Kolb will experience a lot more pressure than he is accustomed to which will throw him off his game. SC and Spurrier want to get a win here for their fans and will be well prepared here and have an opponent they can handle in the trenches.

TTech -7 -120 2.4/2 - Minnesota defense is terrible and TTech should really light up the scoreboard in this one. Minny doesn't have the offense to come from behind and also don't have the quality ground game they have had in years past. Quite simply, the Gophers just won't be able to keep up with TTech's offensive output in this one.

Oregon State -3 -110 1.1/1 - I think Oregon State comes in with a lot of positive momentum for this game as they finished the regular season very strong and will want to culminate things with a nice bowl win. Missouri on the other hand stumbled to the finish line losing 3 out of their L4 and other than TTech never beat any of the good teams on their schedule. OSU's Moore really improved towards the end of the season and consequently OSU was a lot more balanced on offense with the improved passing game. Missouri has a nice offense but OSU has done a nice job bending but not breaking and tightening up in the red zone when they have to. I like OSU to get the cover in this one and win by about a TD.
 
Fondy - I've thought a lot about the MD game, and basically I just think it is a really tough game to bet. Both coaches are very good with a lot of time to prepare. MD has not faced as prolific a passing offense as Purdue has all year so I'm not sure how they will do. Josh Wilson is an excellent corner on one side for MD but Gardner worries me on the other side. Terps really haven't played very well defensively all year, having problems against the run, questionable tackling and lack of a proven pass rush. I think MD does have a very good OL and should be able to get their ground game going tonight and sustain some drives. Terps also ought to be able to throw against this Purdue defense, with Heyward Bey being a real legit downfield threat. Key will be TO's and if MD can avoid them they should win. That is a big if with this team though, as Hollenbach sometimes tries to go late over the middle and gets picked. I'm just hoping for a win here but I don't think its a great game to bet.
 
GL timh

South Carolina should definitely be the more motivated team to come out victorious.
 
Timmy - what are you on today? I know it's not popular but I'm liking BC early (run defense and passing game) with a lean to TX in the afternoon and liking VT alot this evening.
 
Mags - I just couldn't pull the trigger either way on that BC game. I wanted to play Navy but couldn't get around the loss of Ballard and BC's huge size advantage on the LOS. Didn't want to go against the move either as that thing went pretty hard from 7 to 8. Texas game has got me puzzled as well, and I'm not liking the way they finished the season and the injury to McCoy. I'm gonna lay off both of these and look at tonight's game.
 
Mags - I'm back, little hungover after last night but looking forward to a good day of New Year's football today.

abcs - thanks I was really pleased with how they played especially the defense.

Tenn -3.5 -109 3.27/3 - Penn State had some difficulty stopping really good passing teams this year and I think Tennessee has too much speed for them today and will be able to get it done through the air. The Penn State offense is pretty much one dimensional with the running game and Tenny has had plenty of time to prepare for it and should be focused on stopping the run first. Penn State will miss DT Ed Johnson (suspended) which will put a lot more pressure on their LB corps. Tenn running game as healthy as it has been in some time should be able to provide some nice balance for their offense.
 
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