time to post my week 1 card so far
- Thread starter RetroVK
- Start date
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
You only have to look at most of the coaches to understand how much time they spend in the weight room too. Big, strong and sometimes fast. They wore them down so the score is only somewhat indicative because CHill gassed mid third qtr and then hung their heads so BG poured it on.
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
687 yards 31 first downs.
Charleston Southern - Going to be very tough on teams. Their front seven did a great job of tackling, penetrating and maintaining discipline throughout the game against the bison. Thought their strategy was clear and effective. That strategy was to load up to stop the power running game of ndsu and force new qb Easton Stick beat them. He was not particularly good though he had a few big throws. The Buccaneers tired in the fourth qtr but still kept fighting. They missed a game winning fg by a foot or two at the end of regulation. Option attack for the Bucs will get better as the season goes along, and they were missing a key offensive lineman (per outside sources I have no idea how good he is) last night. Most teams at this level will struggle to stop it consistently. Chareleston Southern is a physical football team. I would also keep an eye on #84 Kameron Brown. Just a freshman but he is a big guy, 6-3 200 per espn. He is going to make a lot of big plays for the Bucs down the line when teams are not ready for the pass. Copeland is a game QB but he is a little slow in option decision making and doesn't throw the ball particularly accurately. I don't know how to describe him as a player ...sort of like that pesky kid that isn't really very talented but just tries hard every play.
NDSU - Front seven is nasty. They have some weaknesses in the secondary that can be exploited. Offensive line big and strong. WR group had some drops but Stick was also whipping some passes when the guys were not that far from him too. Stick appeared to struggle with anything intermediate. He threw the fly pattern ok and was serviceable on the short stuff but despite CSU loading up to stop the run, Stick rarely found a TE or slot guy in the seam or hit a mid range out. He is going to have to develop but for now it is an even larger drop off from Wentz than most probably thought. This is one of the few fcs teams I have watched over the last few years (because they are the ones that get put on tv a lot) and this looked like the worst offensive version by a long ways. Against teams with weak run defense and no passing game, they will dominate the game but against teams who can throw on offense to exploit their secondary weaknesses and who can defend the run and exploit weaknesses in their pass game, they could be more vulnerable. It doesn't look like a championship team to me this time.
Anyway, survived overtime with an under and that is always nice. Not sure what it takes to secure an under without sweating the last five minutes of the game. Again, I utilized a lot of information from another handicapper as a basis point for the bet on that game so figure I should thanks to that person for their work and sharing of it .. "thanks".
Charleston Southern - Going to be very tough on teams. Their front seven did a great job of tackling, penetrating and maintaining discipline throughout the game against the bison. Thought their strategy was clear and effective. That strategy was to load up to stop the power running game of ndsu and force new qb Easton Stick beat them. He was not particularly good though he had a few big throws. The Buccaneers tired in the fourth qtr but still kept fighting. They missed a game winning fg by a foot or two at the end of regulation. Option attack for the Bucs will get better as the season goes along, and they were missing a key offensive lineman (per outside sources I have no idea how good he is) last night. Most teams at this level will struggle to stop it consistently. Chareleston Southern is a physical football team. I would also keep an eye on #84 Kameron Brown. Just a freshman but he is a big guy, 6-3 200 per espn. He is going to make a lot of big plays for the Bucs down the line when teams are not ready for the pass. Copeland is a game QB but he is a little slow in option decision making and doesn't throw the ball particularly accurately. I don't know how to describe him as a player ...sort of like that pesky kid that isn't really very talented but just tries hard every play.
NDSU - Front seven is nasty. They have some weaknesses in the secondary that can be exploited. Offensive line big and strong. WR group had some drops but Stick was also whipping some passes when the guys were not that far from him too. Stick appeared to struggle with anything intermediate. He threw the fly pattern ok and was serviceable on the short stuff but despite CSU loading up to stop the run, Stick rarely found a TE or slot guy in the seam or hit a mid range out. He is going to have to develop but for now it is an even larger drop off from Wentz than most probably thought. This is one of the few fcs teams I have watched over the last few years (because they are the ones that get put on tv a lot) and this looked like the worst offensive version by a long ways. Against teams with weak run defense and no passing game, they will dominate the game but against teams who can throw on offense to exploit their secondary weaknesses and who can defend the run and exploit weaknesses in their pass game, they could be more vulnerable. It doesn't look like a championship team to me this time.
Anyway, survived overtime with an under and that is always nice. Not sure what it takes to secure an under without sweating the last five minutes of the game. Again, I utilized a lot of information from another handicapper as a basis point for the bet on that game so figure I should thanks to that person for their work and sharing of it .. "thanks".
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pressitup
Leader of the Adult Humor Industry
I didn't get they were a private, recruit team. I mean they won fair and square.
But as you know, we have to live by the NCAAjr (UIL) rules:
[h=2]Eligibility for Athletic Contests[/h]
- meet all the requirements above,
- are less than 19 years old on September 1 preceding the contest or have been granted eligibility based on a disability that delayed their education by at least one year,
- live with their parents inside the school district attendance zone their first year of attendance (see your school administrator for exceptions),
- have not moved or changed schools for athletic purposes,
- have not violated the athletic amateur rule, and
- were eligible according to the fifteen day rule and the residence rule prior to district certification.
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
It's completely an unfair advantage that Bishop Gorman has. In Nevada we don't separate the private from the public schools and it has gotten so lopsided that we even had an assemblyman trying to pass bills to change the rules last year and not allow Bishop Gorman to compete for State titles.
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
pressitup
Leader of the Adult Humor Industry
Wow , that's interesting.
I guess if you're gifted and your parents can basically send you to a prep school , then all power to you.
Our obvious love for the game is more community driven.
Not that we don't have our slimy moves.
If memory serves(I'm sure it will fail), in '92 , after a state 'ship in '91, Mojo gets through rd1 of the playoffs and information gets to the district that a certain player lives on the wrong corner and shouldn't be attending Permian. Now, I'm sure it's been proven and rehashed but at the time I heard it was possibly leaked by an OHS grad , possibly a city council OHS grad. I don't really know, but of course that was the family scuttlebutt. No bias there.
Needless to say, Permian forfeited all wins, including the playoff win.
Oh well , don't mean to clutter your excellent thread with this stuff. Just love the high school game. Thanks for the link.
I guess if you're gifted and your parents can basically send you to a prep school , then all power to you.
Our obvious love for the game is more community driven.
Not that we don't have our slimy moves.
If memory serves(I'm sure it will fail), in '92 , after a state 'ship in '91, Mojo gets through rd1 of the playoffs and information gets to the district that a certain player lives on the wrong corner and shouldn't be attending Permian. Now, I'm sure it's been proven and rehashed but at the time I heard it was possibly leaked by an OHS grad , possibly a city council OHS grad. I don't really know, but of course that was the family scuttlebutt. No bias there.
Needless to say, Permian forfeited all wins, including the playoff win.
Oh well , don't mean to clutter your excellent thread with this stuff. Just love the high school game. Thanks for the link.
Marsski
MAC Marvel
Hey VK, always good to see your thread....I see you on Texas State and the under in Athens in week one. I thought I would give you a few thoughts
Sprague makes plays with his legs but struggled with accuracy and holding onto the ball LY when he played. He's serviceable but not going to win any games with his arm. Bobcats have a deep stable of backs and I would look for them to lean on them especially early as they are breaking a bunch of new linemen. Numbers for Bobcats defense from last year look pretty bad but once LB Poling got hurt they really fell apart. I think the real OU Bobcats D is closer to what you saw in the first 6 games of the year last season especially with what should be a beastly D line.
Guess what I'm saying is that I like your under bet and added it myself @ 59.
As for the spread, Bobcats laying 21 to anyone is pretty suspect, I know next to nothing about Texas State. I would imagine they struggle to put up points in Athens and HC Withers got ran out of Columbus on a rail so not expecting them to be particularly well-coached. Texas State is moving out of that shitbag 4-2-5 so I would think they improve their defensive numbers over last year. I'm seeing something like 34-10, 31-17, comfortably under and close to the ATS number.
My only other bet so far is Toledo +3 @ Arky State. Not sure why a team that hung 63 on Ark State in the bowl game in '14, and 37 on them last year is a dog. Toledo's new coach looked fine to me in the bowl game when they handled Temple.
Toledo has a "new" QB in Woodside, but he has played some and there won't be much or any drop-off from last year. Hunt will rumble all over these guys especially since his whole OL is back.
Good luck this year. I'll try to stop by more often than I have been to talk MAC.
Sprague makes plays with his legs but struggled with accuracy and holding onto the ball LY when he played. He's serviceable but not going to win any games with his arm. Bobcats have a deep stable of backs and I would look for them to lean on them especially early as they are breaking a bunch of new linemen. Numbers for Bobcats defense from last year look pretty bad but once LB Poling got hurt they really fell apart. I think the real OU Bobcats D is closer to what you saw in the first 6 games of the year last season especially with what should be a beastly D line.
Guess what I'm saying is that I like your under bet and added it myself @ 59.
As for the spread, Bobcats laying 21 to anyone is pretty suspect, I know next to nothing about Texas State. I would imagine they struggle to put up points in Athens and HC Withers got ran out of Columbus on a rail so not expecting them to be particularly well-coached. Texas State is moving out of that shitbag 4-2-5 so I would think they improve their defensive numbers over last year. I'm seeing something like 34-10, 31-17, comfortably under and close to the ATS number.
My only other bet so far is Toledo +3 @ Arky State. Not sure why a team that hung 63 on Ark State in the bowl game in '14, and 37 on them last year is a dog. Toledo's new coach looked fine to me in the bowl game when they handled Temple.
Toledo has a "new" QB in Woodside, but he has played some and there won't be much or any drop-off from last year. Hunt will rumble all over these guys especially since his whole OL is back.
Good luck this year. I'll try to stop by more often than I have been to talk MAC.
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
FWIW, Sprague left the program due to thoracic outlet syndrome.
Thanks for the thoughts, particularly on Withers. I don't really have my own opinion about him so good to get a reliable outside opinion. My biggest concern for that game... both in regards to the spread and the total is whether or not Texas State plays average pace or fast pace. I know it won't be slow pace.
I am tempted by toledo, agree that Woodside can hardly be considered a fresh face and isn't that big of a downgrade. I have to admit that I have developed a bit of respect for the Ark st program though.
Miss the MAC threads. Get your thread going soon.
Marsski
MAC Marvel
Somehow missed the Sprague news.
I guess they start Windham then...not sure what we have with him. He's definitely dual threat though.
yeah, Withers didn't impress in Columbus for sure although I'm no huge Luke Fickell fan and they kept him from that disastrous defensive staff.
I'll bring the MAC talk back...
Jimmydafreak
Pretty much a regular
Army QB Update
Monken: Bradshaw likely starting QB
Ahmad Bradshaw is expected to be Army’s starting quarterback when the Black Knights open up the 2016 season at Temple next Friday (Sept. 2).
Coach Jeff Monken said after Thursday’s practice that, “right now, Ahmad is likely to be the starting quarterback.”
Bradshaw would be making his eighth career start and second straight on opening day. The junior rushed for 143 yards and two touchdowns and threw for 107 and two touchdowns against Fordham last September.
Monken’s explanation for Bradshaw potentially getting the nod over sophomore Chris Carter: Simply, Bradshaw has taken more reps with the first team in the preseason. Carter missed two weeks of practice with a hamstring injury.
The potential choice of Bradshaw doesn’t come as a big surprise following his performance during Army’s scrimmage Saturday. Bradshaw ran the triple option smoothly and made good decisions.
Carter is improving each practice, Monken said. Could Army use both Bradshaw and Carter against Temple?
“He (Carter) just needs more reps,” Monken said. “He needs reps all next week. I anticipate that we’ll probably play both of them, at least some.”
Monken: Bradshaw likely starting QB
Ahmad Bradshaw is expected to be Army’s starting quarterback when the Black Knights open up the 2016 season at Temple next Friday (Sept. 2).
Coach Jeff Monken said after Thursday’s practice that, “right now, Ahmad is likely to be the starting quarterback.”
Bradshaw would be making his eighth career start and second straight on opening day. The junior rushed for 143 yards and two touchdowns and threw for 107 and two touchdowns against Fordham last September.
Monken’s explanation for Bradshaw potentially getting the nod over sophomore Chris Carter: Simply, Bradshaw has taken more reps with the first team in the preseason. Carter missed two weeks of practice with a hamstring injury.
The potential choice of Bradshaw doesn’t come as a big surprise following his performance during Army’s scrimmage Saturday. Bradshaw ran the triple option smoothly and made good decisions.
Carter is improving each practice, Monken said. Could Army use both Bradshaw and Carter against Temple?
“He (Carter) just needs more reps,” Monken said. “He needs reps all next week. I anticipate that we’ll probably play both of them, at least some.”
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
The stories regarding him have been all over the place .. left, didn't leave, left, didn't leave. Now starting.
Crazy.
I think it was Cubsker who thought Carter is every bit as good as Bradshaw. Bigger upside, more mistake prone maybe.
I am of the plug and play opinion with the academies unless someone is just horrible or someone is just spectacular (Reynolds),
Jimmydafreak
Pretty much a regular
Yeah, it's been a wild ride. Implicit in Monken's comments is that Carter has a higher upside no? I just like the fact that both will be ready to go for Temple.
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
I made UTEP the favorite. They beat NMSU in their house without their best player who they will have for this game. They have beaten nmsu quite a few times in a row as well. I have the writeup which covers my thoughts pretty thoroughly I think .... but ya ... don't see why this is much more than a slight UTEP advantage. And while I mentioned them beating NMSU last year, NMSU outplayed them. Over a TD seems a bit steep if Rose3 and the QB are a go. Aggies seem like a great bet to me if healthy .. don't think you are missing anything. Fear is UTEP just running it down their throat over and over again .. but gotta love that DC change for nmsu. Maybe doesn't show this game but gotta love it.
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
Afraid Brett Elliott is gonna high pace with Texas State after looking over some James Madison results/Boxes.
Incidentally, I forgot that is where Vad Lee (GT) ended up. He is in the CFL now.
The reason I am especially fearful is he has a QB he should trust to do it right out of the gate on the road. I would hope he would not in that situation in most cases, particularly when the coaching staff has mentioned lack of depth on several occasions in the stuff I have read. Fast pace and lack of depth just don't mix well, particularly long term but also in a single game. It also doesn't play well when you are overmatched. But an ooc road game they are expected to lose big.. maybe you just do what you do and I can't complain if they do.
A little fearful of that game right now and Garfather keeps poking me to make me more scared.
Incidentally, I forgot that is where Vad Lee (GT) ended up. He is in the CFL now.
The reason I am especially fearful is he has a QB he should trust to do it right out of the gate on the road. I would hope he would not in that situation in most cases, particularly when the coaching staff has mentioned lack of depth on several occasions in the stuff I have read. Fast pace and lack of depth just don't mix well, particularly long term but also in a single game. It also doesn't play well when you are overmatched. But an ooc road game they are expected to lose big.. maybe you just do what you do and I can't complain if they do.
A little fearful of that game right now and Garfather keeps poking me to make me more scared.
tradition90
Well-Known Member
I guess this leads me to the question of what the play is at Michigan this week???
Michigan will certainly play slower than Kal, but its Defense could also force 4 fumbles and several INT's. Also, Harbaugh will take Time Outs to ensure Wolverines cover the 41.... Soooo, can Hawaii score 2 TD's in the Big House to cover the over of 54.5????
Appreciate your thoughts
Michigan will certainly play slower than Kal, but its Defense could also force 4 fumbles and several INT's. Also, Harbaugh will take Time Outs to ensure Wolverines cover the 41.... Soooo, can Hawaii score 2 TD's in the Big House to cover the over of 54.5????
Appreciate your thoughts
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
Unless Michigan sets them up with turnovers or special teams, I don't see Hawaii finding the end zone more than once and think 0 TD's happens about as much as 1 or greater. The difference between Cal "tackling" and Michigan will be huge. Also, Cal got no pass rush, so while I thought Woolsey played pretty good in the opener, he had good conditions to do so. Wolverines are going to be in his face.
The Hawaii DL played well against Cal and they still got worn out by the end of the game. The travel in this case is so brutal it is hard to imagine Hawaii has any legs at all to play this game.
Normally I consider fumbles sort of flukish but Hawaii appears to have an ongoing problem.
Gun to my head, I would go with Michigan to just power them to death. 49-6 type of a score.
And yes, we know for a fact that Harbaugh likes to cover for the alumni. I will never, ever forget the SJSU game when he was coaching at Stanford.
Would also point out that the extra bowl practices from last year appeared to pay dividends for the Michigan offense. Between that and year two, I think the Wolverines will be better on offense this year.
Pretty sure it is ugly and gets ugly fast but it is also lined that way.
I suppose there is an advantage for Hawaii having already played a game, though
If you are going to back Michigan (I won't be), I would make sure the weather is ok. You don't want to lay 6 TD's in bad weather.
I don't think I added any new information for you or anything .. I guess I think it is lined pretty good. I do think Michigan is more likely to cover this number than Ville is against Charlotte.
And looking at the total it is totaled pretty good.
Looks like the Hawaii team total will be around 7 for the game..... seems right.
Looks like the Michigan team total will be around 48/49 .... seems right.
Looks like total points will be around 55 ... seems right.
Nothing for me in this one.
The Hawaii DL played well against Cal and they still got worn out by the end of the game. The travel in this case is so brutal it is hard to imagine Hawaii has any legs at all to play this game.
Normally I consider fumbles sort of flukish but Hawaii appears to have an ongoing problem.
Gun to my head, I would go with Michigan to just power them to death. 49-6 type of a score.
And yes, we know for a fact that Harbaugh likes to cover for the alumni. I will never, ever forget the SJSU game when he was coaching at Stanford.
Would also point out that the extra bowl practices from last year appeared to pay dividends for the Michigan offense. Between that and year two, I think the Wolverines will be better on offense this year.
Pretty sure it is ugly and gets ugly fast but it is also lined that way.
I suppose there is an advantage for Hawaii having already played a game, though
If you are going to back Michigan (I won't be), I would make sure the weather is ok. You don't want to lay 6 TD's in bad weather.
I don't think I added any new information for you or anything .. I guess I think it is lined pretty good. I do think Michigan is more likely to cover this number than Ville is against Charlotte.
And looking at the total it is totaled pretty good.
Looks like the Hawaii team total will be around 7 for the game..... seems right.
Looks like the Michigan team total will be around 48/49 .... seems right.
Looks like total points will be around 55 ... seems right.
Nothing for me in this one.
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
Here it is ... Harbaugh risked losing the game to run one more play when the clock was ticking to run out with SJSU out of timeouts and no way to keep game from ending, while Stanford had just a 6 point lead. In a world of justice they fumble and SJSU returns it for a TD. In an unjust world, Stanford covers the number for the first time in the game with under 10 seconds to play when the game should have been over. 2008
- 1st and 10 at SJSU 33
(1:30 - 4th) Toby Gerhart rush for 13 yards to the SJSt 20 for a 1ST down. - 1st and 10 at SJSU 20
(1:01 - 4th) Toby Gerhart rush for 5 yards to the SJSt 15. - 2nd and 5 at SJSU 15
(1:01 - 4th) Timeout SAN JOSE ST, clock 01:01. - 2nd and 5 at SJSU 15
(0:54 - 4th) Toby Gerhart rush for 8 yards to the SJSt 7 for a 1ST down. - 1st and Goal at SJSU 7
(0:54 - 4th) Timeout SAN JOSE ST, clock 00:54. - 1st and Goal at SJSU 7
(0:45 - 4th) Toby Gerhart rush for 5 yards to the SJSt 2. - 2nd and Goal at SJSU 2
(0:09 - 4th) Toby Gerhart rush for 2 yards for a TOUCHDOWN. - (0:09 - 4th) Aaron Zagory extra point GOOD.
- (0:09 - 4th) Travis Golia kickoff for 30 yards returned by Jeff Clark for 4 yards to the SJSt 44.
Timh
CTG Psychiatrist - Dr. Tim
I like your thoughts here, and would figure that Bama is going to really look to establish the run and go low risk in the passing game and then rely on their defense. Makes a lot of sense. BOL on the season.
tradition90
Well-Known Member
Thanks for the feedback....I wont be taking Michigan even though I do think Harbaugh will make an effort to cover...on the flip side, Michigan's 3 consecutive shut-outs was very impressive last year, so if Hawaii doesnt get on the board early, I can see Michigan working to maintain the shutout even while the game is out of hand...also on the road Hawaii was shut out on the road at tOSU, Wisconsin, and Boise last year; Looks like a no play for me on the Total as well, but I still think that I would lean over....Harbaugh may put up 50...just because.
Dollaz
Egor Demin Watch Club Member
I think the Michigan offense is going to be better than people assume. Certainly, there is concern at QB, but I think Ty Isaac is going to have a monster year. And he's projected as the backup right now. With a great running game and fantastic WRs (including a safety net at TE), the QBs job is going to be easy. The defense is going to give them plenty of short fields.
Frank Costanza
Co-Inventor of the Man's Bra
Strong is doing his presser now and said everyone is a go.
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
So frustrating. When i made the investment rose3 no hernia problem and didn't care which qb started. Now possibly no Rose3 and neither qb. Cannot make it up
broadwayjoe
May 5Dimes MLB 2nd place
why must you bring this up?! Ugh. Haha.
wiseplayer
Pretty much a regular
I was at this game. The alumni behind the Stanford bench from the stands were screaming at Harbaugh to score. They were almost chanting for the score. True story.
I got beat for $200 on this decision and almost threw up all over the guy in front of me.
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
I forbid you from going to any game i bet on ....which, for week one, means you can't go to any games
GWarner27
Meatballin' in Celtics Stadium
gamesmanship?
broadwayjoe
May 5Dimes MLB 2nd place
Kyle,
i whole heartedly agree with you on both your Tulane plays. However, the game line doesn't make sense to me and it seems as though lines makers are giving WF too much credit for their offense and not sure what they'd base that on. I don't have nearly as sophisticated of a power rankings/line making system as a lot of folks (you included) so I'm curious to see where you put this line and where you think lines makers are coming from by making it so high...I must be missing something.
i whole heartedly agree with you on both your Tulane plays. However, the game line doesn't make sense to me and it seems as though lines makers are giving WF too much credit for their offense and not sure what they'd base that on. I don't have nearly as sophisticated of a power rankings/line making system as a lot of folks (you included) so I'm curious to see where you put this line and where you think lines makers are coming from by making it so high...I must be missing something.
Frank Costanza
Co-Inventor of the Man's Bra
Hoping not the case and that any such thing has been played with the QB situation. Although neither QB is going to scare ND one iota.
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
Pure PR is below two TD's, fwiw.
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
Changed his mind. Horrible news for the over and for uga backers
Br@ssknux
Pretty much a regular
This is an ancient post, and sorry I'm just getting to it, but the thing I don't like from a Wyoming perspective is this:
NIU on the road the last 5 years : 21-8-1 ATS
Wyoming at home the last 5 years: 10-20 ATS
Still looking at that one, and altitude certainly a concern, but close to pulling the trigger on NIU for me. My hesitation is that you're on the other side actually.
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
I won't be shocked if NIU torches them. From a value standpoint my pr just gave it such a big variance that it was an auto-play. I mean minus three scores if it were at niu? no way.
CrimsonK
Sid Bream Supporter
I don't think I've even stopped in and said hey to my ole friend! Great to see you still doing your thing. I started looking for at that Houston/Ok under last night as well. I haven't done anything on it and its actually been little talked about across the interwebs from what I can see. In looking back at Houston from 2015, that rush defense was just filthy. Not a ton of apples to apples in similar quality in what they will see in the opener but I think it's safe to say they can have some real success defending the run. Honestly, my biggest concern is both defenses play the run so well it turns into the type of paced passing game I would want to avoid. I may even look to short the ok RBs in the prop market. GL buddy thanks for taking the time you do to help so many others
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
I will be doing halftimes today. I will post them if I have reception where I am at and bet it fast enough where anyone else could actually get the bet in if they were tailing. No reception or betting it right before 2H starts won't be posted or mentioned by me at all in the thread.
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