time to post my week 1 card so far

Grovehard said:
Ole Miss is probably better at 2 positions: QB and WR. As an Ole Miss fan, I'm concerned about FSU being able to negate the QB and WR advantage with the match up of their DEs vs. Ole Miss' OTs. Ole Miss will either be starting a true frosh or a redshirt frosh at LT. At RT, Ole Miss is probably going with a sophomore who saw limited action last year. Assuming the OTs hold up well enough to give Kelly time, my FSU buddy tells me that the Noles' secondary, though young, is very talented. If Kelly has time, they better be. If not, it won't matter.

Ole Miss will also almost certainly be without a starter at SDE (F. Brown). If the defensive plan is to set the edges and force Cook back inside, which it better be, Brown's absence will make that more difficult. The roster is very thin at DE.
Click to expand...

i personally think FSU going to be a real problem for ya'll
 
Some line movement today. I am not sure if it is adjustments prior to totals release or actual $. I will let the resident sportsbook guys like Lind or Rex make that conclusion. But here is what it has effected where my plays and leans are concerned (looking at bm):

At around 2:20 today cal was -21.5 and it now sits at -20. As i had a Hawaii lean, this hurts my chances of backing Hawaii.

Tulane was 18 at around 2:20, since then it has gone back and forth from 16.5 to 17.5 and now sits at 17.5. Something is going on there, I just can't figure out what. As long as it is over 17, it will be a strong consideration for me. There is a reason I am waiting there even though it is a risk.

At around 4:45 today vandy moved from -3 to -3.5. Locked that one in at -3 two days ago so feel pretty good about that move off a key number.

Ball State took money at around 4:45 today and moved down to 2.5. I will play ga st at -2.5 if I find that in town (which I don't see any at the moment). I do worry Arbuckle matters but just talking line moves right now.

Again, at around 4:45 today Army took money and dropped below the 17 to 16.5. I think Texas State is my favorite bet but Army is close. Glad to have gotten 17 while it was available.

Again, at around 4:45 today Missouri dropped to 10. By my weak line tracker that I use that line is all over the place right now.

sbama moved down though I find the move nearly worthless

Rutgers moved to 27. It is getting harder to lay off that but I will definitely wait and cap some more since the momentum is one direction. I have washington right there with Stanford as the best in the pac but this is out of hand.

kent st move around a little,and settled in at 20 for now.

sjsu moved to 4. It will go lower.

unt moved to 9.5. i guess i blew it not taking that 11.5 two days ago.

usm dropped to 6.5. 7 is the ceiling from here, 5.5 probably the floor.

nmsu back down to 7. cannot complain.
 
UNT is a PR play for me but the matchups scare me to death

Got SJSU at 6 so glad to see that move

We disagree but if I'm getting very tempted to jump on the Skullets

Agree on Army...I'm not sure I ever had access to a 17 but I would love it

My Texas St/Ohio PR is 18 so I should jump if I see a 21.5
 
clowncar said:
I might add Florida State to my TMO lean list. Just going to be a huge difference week 1 between team readiness in my opinion.
Click to expand...

Went from -6.5 down to -4.5 at my book within the last 24 hours ... heard a rumor Denzel Nkemdiche just got cleared for a medical redshirt after last year ...

Always enjoy your thread, hope to contribute more this year ... BOL :shake:
 
NYGiants25 said:
Went from -6.5 down to -4.5 at my book within the last 24 hours ... heard a rumor Denzel Nkemdiche just got cleared for a medical redshirt after last year ...

Always enjoy your thread, hope to contribute more this year ... BOL :shake:
Click to expand...

Down to -4 -105.

I have no clue on why the line dropped.
 
Threads by handicappers, for handicappers, thank you CC and CTG!

To hop in on some of the discussions...

On run+pass projections alone (which includes projected progression/regression within the offensive and defensive units) +HF I would also have VAN -8.5 vs SCAR. What brings my # back close to the current line is a combination of having SCAR PR'd slightly higher than VAN at year's end (debatable, sure, lol) and the fact that VAN was the least efficient team in FBS at converting their yards into points. SCAR was below average at well, but more than 6 points per game better, still. I wouldn't try to oversell the predictive power of scoring/defensive efficiency, but I do use it to massage my spreads a little bit.

I like the service academies this year too. Navy obviously lost a ton of offensive starters, but even with some healthy regression factored in I think they're a tough out and should be in every conference game. Army losing QB Bradshaw will hurt their running game, though Carter put up much better passing numbers.

I'm also betting on Larry Rose III. NMSU does not travel well, so fingers crossed.

I'm on the PSU against Kent train. Paired with the Under I'm hoping it goes 1-1 at worst -- Betting that Kent doesn't score 17+, nutshell.

BOL and don't give yourself heatstroke running from book to book down there!
 
Good luck clowncar!

A few comments:

1. I saw you mentioned Reardon is no longer in the hunt for QB at Kent, and I believe he's been moved to WR. Bollas is the guy there I believe.

2. Army has lost their first and second string QBs already, so what is the deal with that line not moving?
 
If Carter goes, I am not sure it is not an upgrade at the spot, if he doesn't go, Army is a bad play.
 
Army West Point junior Ahmad Bradshaw returned to practice Wednesday, hours after reports circulated that the quarterback, who started seven of the team's 12 games last year, was leaving the school.

A local newspaper report announcing Bradshaw's exit went online Tuesday night; other college football news outlets cited the piece throughout the day Wednesday. The paper later published a piece on the quarterback's return.

Army West Point athletics spokesman Matt Faulker told Army Times on Wednesday that Bradshaw's status had not changed and that the junior didn't attend Tuesday's session "due to administrative reasons." The school's official athletics Twitter account gave a shout-out to the quarterback on the same day he missed practice.
 
carolinablue said:
Army West Point junior Ahmad Bradshaw returned to practice Wednesday, hours after reports circulated that the quarterback, who started seven of the team's 12 games last year, was leaving the school.

A local newspaper report announcing Bradshaw's exit went online Tuesday night; other college football news outlets cited the piece throughout the day Wednesday. The paper later published a piece on the quarterback's return.

Army West Point athletics spokesman Matt Faulker told Army Times on Wednesday that Bradshaw's status had not changed and that the junior didn't attend Tuesday's session "due to administrative reasons." The school's official athletics Twitter account gave a shout-out to the quarterback on the same day he missed practice.
Click to expand...


Ahhh.
 
I was in a few brick and mortars yesterday ... still no totals at those facilities. Being an idiot and not having the onlines sure has its drawbacks.

Settled on $500 as the basic unit this year. I know that isn't as baller as some of you out there but I play quite a few games and had one of my only real bad seasons of baseball. I actually made a comeback to get "near" even in bases and then bragged to my friends about it and have since gone on a big losing streak again, which I have not bragged to them about. Tough sport this year for me.

I am refraining from talking totals until I actually get my action in ... but who knows when they get the totals out here locally en masse.
 
clowncar said:
I was in a few brick and mortars yesterday ... still no totals at those facilities. Being an idiot and not having the onlines sure has its drawbacks.

Settled on $500 as the basic unit this year. I know that isn't as baller as some of you out there but I play quite a few games and had one of my only real bad seasons of baseball. I actually made a comeback to get "near" even in bases and then bragged to my friends about it and have since gone on a big losing streak again, which I have not bragged to them about. Tough sport this year for me.

I am refraining from talking totals until I actually get my action in ... but who knows when they get the totals out here locally en masse.
Click to expand...







Stratosphere has totals posted. Been up for a couple of days. :cheers3:
 
Army QB Bradshaw back at practice after reports he'd left team

https://www.armytimes.com/articles/army-qb-bradshaw-back-at-practice-after-reports-hed-left-team

Army West Point junior Ahmad Bradshaw returned to practice Wednesday, hours after reports circulated that the quarterback, who started seven of the team's 12 games last year, was leaving the school.

A local newspaper report announcing Bradshaw's exit went online Tuesday night; other college football news outlets cited the piece throughout the day Wednesday. The paper later published a piece on the quarterback's return.

Army West Point athletics spokesman Matt Faulker told Army Times on Wednesday that Bradshaw's status had not changed and that the junior didn't attend Tuesday's session "due to administrative reasons." The school's official athletics Twitter account gave a shout-out to the quarterback on the same day he missed practice.

Much of the speculation regarding the report surrounded the commitment papers that must be signed by service academy cadets prior to their junior year of classes, in which they agree to five years of military service following their two remaining years of schooling. Bradshaw has reportedly agreed to the requirement.

Bradshaw will compete with sophomore Chris Carter for the starting QB job. Carter started the final two games of 2015, including Army's 21-17 loss to Navy.

The Black Knights begin their 2016 season Sept. 2 on the road against the Temple Owls.

 
I'm delighted to see your 'must read' thread back again. And sorry for your misfortune in bases.

Strong leans here on USM, Wyoming, and Army. I note with interest your strong lean on Tulane, which I share. You point out Wake's scoring deficiencies from '15. I will borrow a Rex expression and add that Wake shouldn't be giving 17 to anyone
gl, as always
bull
 
clowncar said:
Seems it is that time of year again.

I have one request for those who want to participate in my thread
1. Don't be a dick in my thread.

A couple of quick notes:
1. I have a lower average unit this year due to some baseball losses.
2. I do not have the large number of outs as in prior years. I will mostly be using Las Vegas books and I will mostly be going to those books in person (rather than App). I do not recommend others do it this way if they are trying to win. This will cost me some money this season and it will cause me to be unable to obtain certain numbers. Hopefully, I find a few off ones in las vegas as well to mitigate my poor process this season.


Locked In:

#147 Army +17
#165 Missouri +11.5
#168 New Mexico State +8
#173 Texas State +21
#175 Southern Miss +7
#187 San Jose State +5.5
#208 Wyoming 10.5
#142 Vanderbilt -3


Strong leans:
north Texas 11.5 eliminated for now, lost number
Kent st 20.5 eliminated
South Alabama 32
Rutgers 26 moved from tmo to strong lean 08/15

Talk me off leans:
Hawaii 21 (Cal)
Indiana -8
Tulane +17.5
Georgia State -3 eliminated
Alabama -10/10.5 eliminated
Rutgers moved to strong lean 08/15
Click to expand...


i quoted the original post here because I forgot to put the plays in the body of the thread and only had them in the edit window. So for complete transparency, I quoted the plays here. Sometimes I play a game multiple times .. say under 55.5 and then again at under 55. For the purposes of this thread, any time there are multiple bets with different lines made before I post, I will utilize the best line. This will stroke my ego and not make me work to hard at the record-keeping. For week 1, that has not occurred (yet), but it will happen at some point ... so again .. just so I am up front about it, I will be posting the best line that I got on any game I have multiple investments that add up to a unit or more.

I have made the following additions:
#137/#138 Tulane/Wake Forest Under 43
#153/#154 Georgia Tech/Boston College Over 44
#139/#140 Rice/WKU Under 63
#165/#166 Missouri/WVU Under 50.5 (+)
#171 South Alabama +32
#171/#172 South Alabama/Miss State Under 57
#173/#174 Texas State/Ohio Under 58
#183 Clemson -7
#183/#184 Clemson/Auburn over 59
#191/#192 Rutgers/Washington Under 55
#195/#19 UNC/UGA over 54.5
#197/#198 Houston/Oklahoma Under 68 (+)
#201/#202 USC/Alabama Under 54
#203 Boise State -20
#205/#206 BYU/Arizona Under 62.5
 
AliShaheed said:
What pulled you off Alabama -10.5? Was it the 'roll tears roll' t-shirts:-)?
Click to expand...

Had a minor pr adjustment and the more I examined the game the more I settled on a lower scoring affair. As I think USC can have the type of game where they run for effective gain behind one of the better offensive lines in the country (Maybe Bama, UGA, FSU and LSU better? maybe). This should help them advance the ball somewhat though I think grinding out long drives and converting third and three and four is a tough way to beat bama. Long term USC will be fine at the QB position. Helton is announcing the starter this afternoon and I assume it will be Browne because it gives him depth he needs. It is pretty clear Browne would transfer if he wasn't the starter and I don't see Helton wanting another circus around the team right off the bat. He can play Browne and then go to the kid if Browne struggles. In any event, I would expect USC to protect the QB a little early .. maybe quick throws to JuJu. They may open up later but I suspect it will be close to the vest early. Bama also breaking in a QB and since Cam Robinson is finished doing his ride-alongs and the charges were dismissed, I believe he is playing in this game. So I would look for Bama to run behind him, particularly with the USC DL being an unusual question mark heading into this year. If that Dline shows up and USC QB play is good, this team for USC could also be pretty good. In any event, I think both teams are going to be run first. 2015 Bama was a slow paced team, USC an average paced team. With both losing key QB's, I think the pace is that much slower game 1. So I generally like totals in this range where I think both teams are capable offensively but don't rate to just have a ton of big plays. It makes for a grinding game and a game where field position is often poor for the offensive side of the ball. Given all that, despite my pr having a lean to Alabama, I think the points are slightly more valuable than I originally thought.
 
Gonna take a minute to discuss the UNC/UGA game and why I am taking the over in that one.

We might as well start with the obvious issue for the Tarheels defensively and that is the running defense. They were 122nd in the nation last year against the run, giving up 247 yards per game at over 5 yards per carry. By most accounts, Chubb (questionable per Donbest) is healthy again and UGA has enormous depth anyway. Baylor rushed for 645 yards in the bowl game. No seriously, 645. They are particularly vulnerable this year up the middle (talented but young) which plays into the uga power game. There won't be a huge change in philosophy with Kirby Smart at the helm so I have a hard time seeing UNC consistently stopping the uga running game. There is some question about the QB's for UGA but if it is Eason, you have to figure he won the job for a reason and if it is the other kid, you have to think he has matured into the position a little bit and is at least functional. With their running game, there should be good down and distance situations all game. Meanwhile, you have UNC who had arguably the best offense in college football last year. Would you be surprised if I told you they were right up there with Oregon and WKU and Baylor in yards per play on offense? Would you be surprised if I told you they were #1 in the nation in Yards per play on offense? Well they basically bring back a ton of talent. The oline looks pretty good, the team knows the offense, I am not sure that Trubisky won't end up being a better player than Williams was at QB (though Williams was decent and this is game 1 against a Kirby Smart defense), Hood is an outright stud at RB, and they bring back all but one of their key receivers.

The pace is interesting because UNC is a faster paced team (but new QB starting) and Georgia was a relatively slow paced team. However, they played against something like 7 top 45 rush defenses and they are running team. That is going to slow your pace down some. Should be more chunks and temporary first down clock stoppages in this one. Basically, just have a hard time not wanting to take overs with UNC's offense this year (buying on Trubisky which may be a mistake) but especially so when they are facing a team that matches up this well against their defense.

So I think the pace has the potential for being a concern or it could play right into the hands of those wanting pts like me.

BTW, in what should be a very competitive game, those of you looking at the sides should really consider the advantage of the UNC FG kicker.

The close line also gives us at least a better chance than most college games of overtime as well.

I think it is lined pretty properly unless UNC has just improved a ton up the middle defensively. If you believe they have then you could argue they should be favored.

In any event, this is a rare big game early that I am really interested in ... mainly because there are two QB's (I assume Eason is starting????? and not Lambert) that I want to watch and develop solid opinions on.

I will call it 34-31 Georgia but would not be surprised in the least if either team smoked the other...
 
Ok let's talk South Alabama at Mississippi State

I won't over complicate the reasons that I am looking to back South Alabama in this game. The main reason is clear to me and that is that Prescott is now throwing TD passes all over the preseason field in the NFL rather than in a Bulldogs uniform. I don't think his importance can be understated. Staley transferred to a JUCO so that means Fitzgerald and his 14 pass attempts from last year and Williams and his combined 70 attempts (including 2 vs Sbama hehe) from 2014 and 2013 are the experience they are falling back to. I think a decent argument could be made that Prescott was one of the most valuable players on any team last year. Take him off last years version of MSU and they don't sniff anywhere close to 9 wins. Mississippi State just couldn't run the football well last year and they relied on Prescott to Ross and Wilson quite a bit. Wilson is gone and Ross is nursing a groin injury. I expect Mullen to revert back to some of the old MSU running game schemes that he used when he first took the job. That should make the running game a lot better in 2016 but they are going to lose a ton of big play capability that Prescott brought to the table. I would expect the bulldogs to go from a well above average pace team to a slightly above average pace team this year. So there should be less plays in this game compared to if they had played last year (sbama slightly above avg pace last year).

Obviously this raises the concern of Sbama's run defense. They got torched most of the year last season, particularly when outclassed and I know from watching the MSU/NCSU bowl game from last year that Mississippi State's team speed is really solid. I assume Sbama will put Thompson on Ross with safety help until Mississippi State proves they can run at will (so the 2nd qtr). The other concern that I have in this game is that Miss State has a QB battle that is hard fought. That means that when Miss State has the ball in the 4th qtr and should be running the game out, that they might actually throw some balls to get the QB meaningful game speed snaps.

Sbama is going to struggle to score a ton (3 pts in 2014 against msu) ... I think you are looking at about 300 yards of total offensive output from them in this game and ten points.

FWIW I had an interesting debate with myself about whether this is better backed full game or first half ..... timing of miss st offense? wearing down of sbama defense? game dynamics of a big lead? mitigated by backup getting meaningful aggressive snaps?

At the end of the day, I am thinking whatever variance there is between Prescott and the new guys taking snaps under center, it will be most prevalent in the first few games of 2016. With Sbama likely not contributing many points, the impetus to score will not be there for Miss State. Conference opener on deck, so maybe they don't even show the full play book in this game.

If MSU goes mid forties to mid fifties in their first game since Prescott, with their best weapon (Ross) nursing a groin injury the week before the most winnable conference home game, then I tip the cap.

38-10 is my final score prediction though my pr makes it much lower even compared to that.

Please receive the opening kickoff and get two first downs.
 
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I am sort of in agreement with M.W. about the value being on Kent St (Obviously, see leans) and I made the total lower. However, I decided to not invest on that game for a unit. I have a feeling I will throw a little something on both the side and total but there were far more games with better value on them for a full unit.

At the end of the day, you can run any system you want but if your offensive line sucks it is tough to move the ball. Some people say the offensive line at psu was not a fan of Hackensack (teehee) and he certainly mastered "turtling".... we know for sure they won't be worse than last year as a unit, regardless. Kent St has a nice little defense though ... just saying ....

Unfortunately, I feel I need to watch a psu game once before getting involved for 2016.
 
Let's talk USM against Kentucky.

As I mentioned in the other thread about that game, I think Hopson was a good hire for USM. Just gonna leave it at that.

At the end of last year, I think this game @UK would be lined more in the -1.5 area but at the beginning of the year, UK probably would have been a TD favorite on a neutral (Just glancing at the mississippi state common opponent lines to make that guess).

So what could possibly have dramatically changed to cause this line to be a case of A.) Being higher than end of last year would dictate B.) Getting equal action on those expecting UK to win by more than 1 score (which would most often be a DD win).

The big changes as I see them:

1. Coaching change at USM. Monken did a great job, got his NFL hire and is gone. But I don't think there is any downgrade to have Hopson in there. Guy is a proven coach. Reason to bump the line? no.
2. Towles transferred to BC. Barker was named the starter after the spring game. I don't doubt the raw talent for Barker isn't better than Towles but he sure hasn't shown it yet. Meanwhile, Mullens returns for USM. Reason to bump the line? no.
3. USM loses two big time receivers. Thomas and Martin combined for over 2300 reception yards, 151 catches and 21 TD's. Thomas was especially good. I can at least understand the concerns here with the WR turnover. BUT.... Thompson was solid last year and returns, Ricard redshirted last year (want to say medical but not sure), Robertson was decent in limited action and they have Jones who was a FSU WR recruit a few years ago. Reason to bump the line? I think so, but this probably isn't nearly the huge loss a lot of people think it is. Even if the entire battery of receivers was returning this year, I wouldn't expect them to repeat what they did last year.
4. USM loses Brian Anderson, arguably their best defender from last year. But they transferred in Jordan Harris who was starting for ISU last year and was their third leading tackler with 70, including 4 tackles for loss to fill that void. Reason to bump the line? hell no.
5. Kentucky defensive turnover - So Kentucky loses 7 of their top 8 tacklers, 4 or 5 of which are trying to make NFL rosters. They basically lose their starting defensive line and one of the guys slotted to replace a spot won't be around for game 1. A lot of the experience they have on their defense is from Sophomores who played a lot as freshmen. Why should I think this team shuts down USM? I can see them out athleting USM and making it hard for the Eagles to run effectively but completely shutting them down seems highly unlikely. Moreover, if you look at Kentucky opponents last year who ran similar type styles of offenses as USM, they just happen to be the teams that the Kentucky defense struggled against (though the athletes they were facing were better). Reason to bump the line? no.

I get backing Kentucky if you think Barker is the real deal and shows up here and you couple that with Kentucky just having better stallions than USM. I also understand if you think there is a humongous special teams advantage for Kentucky (there is). But I would not expect Kentucky to dominate this football game and I would definitely think that USM has an open backdoor to attack even if they are behind 10-14 points in the fourth quarter.

There is just not enough experienced upperclassmen leadership on that Kentucky defense.

Win by two scores and I tip the cap to Mark Stoops (and that is saying something).

Kentucky does have to win this game to have any chance of bowling, though. USM has a cake schedule and bowls regardless of the outcome of this one.
 
clowncar said:
Seems it is that time of year again.

I have one request for those who want to participate in my thread
1. Don't be a dick in my thread.

A couple of quick notes:
1. I have a lower average unit this year due to some baseball losses.
2. I do not have the large number of outs as in prior years. I will mostly be using Las Vegas books and I will mostly be going to those books in person (rather than App). I do not recommend others do it this way if they are trying to win. This will cost me some money this season and it will cause me to be unable to obtain certain numbers. Hopefully, I find a few off ones in las vegas as well to mitigate my poor process this season.


Locked In:

#147 Army +17
#165 Missouri +11.5
#168 New Mexico State +8
#173 Texas State +21
#175 Southern Miss +7 (blurb post #87)
#187 San Jose State +5.5
#208 Wyoming 10.5
#142 Vanderbilt -3
#137/#138 Tulane/Wake Forest Under 43
#153/#154 Georgia Tech/Boston College Over 44
#139/#140 Rice/WKU Under 63
#165/#166 Missouri/WVU Under 50.5 (+)
#171 South Alabama +32 (blurb post #83)
#171/#172 South Alabama/Miss State Under 57 (blurb post #83)
#173/#174 Texas State/Ohio Under 58
#183 Clemson -7
#183/#184 Clemson/Auburn over 59
#191/#192 Rutgers/Washington Under 55
#195/#19 UNC/UGA over 54.5 (blurb post #81)
#197/#198 Houston/Oklahoma Under 68 (+)
#201/#202 USC/Alabama Under 54 (blurb post #80)
#203 Boise State -20
#205/#206 BYU/Arizona Under 62.5

Strong leans:
north Texas 11.5 eliminated for now, lost number
Kent st 20.5 eliminated
South Alabama 32 Added 08/20/16
Rutgers 26 moved from tmo to strong lean 08/15. Eliminated on 08/20/16. I prefer the under and don't want two units on Rutgers defense with their preferred pace.

Talk me off leans:
Umass/Florida Under 48.5
Ole Miss/FSU Under 57
CSU/Colorado Under 54
Hawaii 21 (Cal)
Indiana -8 eliminated 08/20/16. Might use in a teaser
Tulane +17.5
Georgia State -3 eliminated
Alabama -10/10.5 eliminated
Rutgers moved to strong lean 08/15
Click to expand...

Good luck Fondy
 
I agree with the UNC over. Georgia should score on UNC for the reasons you noted. OOn the other side, Trubisky's numbers as a backup were off the charts: 40-47 for 12 yards per pass? 18-20 for 10.3 yards per pass vs. FBS teams, mostly Wake, Miami, and Duke? Those numbers from mop-up duty won't necessarily translate into success in the first half against a good opponent, but I'm willing to bet they do. And if it's 35-17 with 5 minutes to play, I expect him to get the garbage TD we need to bust the total.
 
clowncar said:
I am sort of in agreement with M.W. about the value being on Kent St (Obviously, see leans) and I made the total lower.
Click to expand...

Funny you should say that, because I'm only "sort of in agreement" with my own assessment. Bollas might be the worst QB in the country. (Just going by stats and opponents -- haven't seen him play.) I certainly lean Kent, but the total is out of line with the expected outcome, and I will more likely play an under on the game and one or both of the teams.

I also think USM is clearly the right side. Good luck.
 
takeit said:
Good luck Fondy
Click to expand...

hehe I have been called worse.

Week one is usually the bread and butter. The list would be considerably longer had i gotten a shot at the horrific openers.

Also I put a "+" on the ones I liked best
 
M.W. said:
I agree with the UNC over. Georgia should score on UNC for the reasons you noted. OOn the other side, Trubisky's numbers as a backup were off the charts: 40-47 for 12 yards per pass? 18-20 for 10.3 yards per pass vs. FBS teams, mostly Wake, Miami, and Duke? Those numbers from mop-up duty won't necessarily translate into success in the first half against a good opponent, but I'm willing to bet they do. And if it's 35-17 with 5 minutes to play, I expect him to get the garbage TD we need to bust the total.
Click to expand...

The joy late is the following ... if UGA is behind we have the UNC defense on the field to have to get a stop ... If UNC is behind we have the UNC offense on field to try and backdoor and if uga is on the field they could bust one on the ground while trying to run out the clock.

On regards to Trubisky, he looked good when I watched him play but it was so limited a sample that I don't want to take too strong a position that I think he will be ok
 
clowncar said:
Seems it is that time of year again.

I have one request for those who want to participate in my thread
1. Don't be a dick in my thread.

A couple of quick notes:
1. I have a lower average unit this year due to some baseball losses.
2. I do not have the large number of outs as in prior years. I will mostly be using Las Vegas books and I will mostly be going to those books in person (rather than App). I do not recommend others do it this way if they are trying to win. This will cost me some money this season and it will cause me to be unable to obtain certain numbers. Hopefully, I find a few off ones in las vegas as well to mitigate my poor process this season.


Locked In:

#147 Army +17
#165 Missouri +11.5
#168 New Mexico State +8
#173 Texas State +21
#175 Southern Miss +7 (blurb post #87)
#187 San Jose State +5.5
#208 Wyoming 10.5
#142 Vanderbilt -3
#137/#138 Tulane/Wake Forest Under 43
#153/#154 Georgia Tech/Boston College Over 44
#139/#140 Rice/WKU Under 63
#165/#166 Missouri/WVU Under 50.5 (+)
#171 South Alabama +32 (blurb post #83)
#171/#172 South Alabama/Miss State Under 57 (blurb post #83)
#173/#174 Texas State/Ohio Under 58
#183 Clemson -7
#183/#184 Clemson/Auburn over 59
#191/#192 Rutgers/Washington Under 55
#195/#19 UNC/UGA over 54.5 (blurb post #81)
#197/#198 Houston/Oklahoma Under 68 (+)
#201/#202 USC/Alabama Under 54 (blurb post #80)
#203 Boise State -20
#205/#206 BYU/Arizona Under 62.5

Strong leans:
north Texas 11.5 eliminated for now, lost number
Kent st 20.5 eliminated
South Alabama 32 Added 08/20/16
Rutgers 26 moved from tmo to strong lean 08/15. Eliminated on 08/20/16. I prefer the under and don't want two units on Rutgers defense with their preferred pace.

Talk me off leans:
Umass/Florida Under 48.5
Ole Miss/FSU Under 57
CSU/Colorado Under 54
Hawaii 21 (Cal)
Indiana -8 eliminated 08/20/16. Might use in a teaser
Tulane +17.5
Georgia State -3 eliminated
Alabama -10/10.5 eliminated
Rutgers moved to strong lean 08/15
Click to expand...

re Hawaii lean - rain predicted Tuesday to Friday. Clear Saturday. Field does get chopped up easily after rain.
 
Alan Tongue said:
re Hawaii lean - rain predicted Tuesday to Friday. Clear Saturday. Field does get chopped up easily after rain.
Click to expand...

Thanks. I sort of have a lean to the under here too. I actually think that game takes place on Friday fwiw.... so maybe it will be raining?
 
I'd google it, think that's just what I use during the tennis tournament but we're an hour ahead of you in January. Let's just confuse everyone.
 
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