time to post my week 1 card so far
- Thread starter RetroVK
- Start date
twinkie13
In transit, arriving late.
i would say USC probably has the best line
i liked your initial lean....bama gonna hurt em i think
twinkie13
In transit, arriving late.
do you really? i thought the other way around......lambert will have a short leash tho
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
Glad to hear it. Can't wait to explain my GT/BC over bet when it will probably have the least number of possessions week 1 and BC has a great rush defense.
twinkie13
In transit, arriving late.
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
ya Towles should be an upgrade.
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
Hard to say without knowing how they performed this spring and summer with my own eyes ...
But as a general practice I would lean to starting Lambert (Vet) and then moving to Eason (talented youth). I think it becomes harder to make the change the opposite direction if things go south. Just easier to bench Lambert for Eason than the other way around when you are looking at Eason being your guy for several years.
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
It is probably like a tree falling in the forest, if no one hears it did it make a sound? I write on...
The hardest game for me to pull the trigger on and invest is next up to talk about and that is Georgia Tech vs Boston College in Dublin, Ireland. I suspect the fans will be heavily in favor of Boston College for obvious reasons ... but I am going to discuss the total here and think the game is fairly well lined from a side perspective anyway.
I am going against quite a few of my normal indicators on this total on my over investment. From a pace perspective we are looking at two VERY slow teams. Both are in my top 40 for sluggish pace. Both teams are run first and neither threw for 1500 yards last year. Boston College gave up fewer big plays than any team in college football last year.
When I cap college football, I ask the basic questions and I usually mention this thread one of every season .... What does team A like to do when they have the ball? Can B stop it? In cfb, unlike the nfl, most teams cannot change their identity when it is warranted by the opponent stopping them. You are gonna do what you are gonna do. Some balanced teams with a good coach and good QB can do it but not many. And here we know GT is going to run the ball a lot. And Boston College gave up a high of 155 yards on the ground last year to cuse and the most yards per carry they gave up in a game was 4.21ypc to NCSU. They held FSU to 98, Clemson to 112 and held 7 of 12 opponents under 100 yards rushing.
So how can I expect GT to score a bunch here?
Well, the reality is that great run defense does not always equate to stopping the option. And this has particularly been the case with Boston College. They have not faced the fbs option since 2013 and Army ran for 326 (most allowed all year) at 5.02 ypc (4th most allowed all year). In 2012, Army ran for 516 (most allowed all year by a long ways) and GT ran for 391 (2nd most allowed by a long ways). Now, I am not pointing this out to say that 2012 and 2013 results have a ton of relevance with regards to players on the field now... I am just pointing out that historically BC has struggled stopping the option while not historically struggling to stop the run in general.
And as you look over the BC team, it would appear their games should be higher scoring this season. They have defensive staff turnover and lose some good players at the first two levels of the defense. While I think they are still pretty good in the front seven it is definitely going to drop off quite a bit in the run defense area. Also, their secondary is pretty good but does that really apply to much here, against this opponent?
GT total offense dropped about 100 yards per game from 2014 to 2015. They dropped from 37.9 pts per game to 29.3 last year and even that was skewed upward because of the huge outputs the first two weeks. A couple of things happened to cause this. They were young where it counted on the oline and rb but another thing that contributed was they just didn't have the true WR threat they had in some prior years to keep defenses honest and burn them when they weren't. I don't think the WR part has been fixed and it is just going to get harder to recruit that type of player to GT going forward. I just don't see many Calvin Johnson's or Demaryius Thomas type players choosing the option offense too often. But this year the bread and butter should be improved. Even with last years struggles, the team scored 20 or more in every regular season game and they have scored 20 or more in 35 of their last 37 games. Only on GT game all of last year finished under the current totaled number and that was the FSU game. Of course, EVERY Boston College game against FBS competition went under this number last year. The bottom line here is that I feel GT is just gonna score pts with what they do, even when they struggle. I like Johnson as a head coach and expect him to get things in order and I actually like Justin Thomas as a football player in the system. So I asked myself do I think GT finds the twenties or more and the answer was yes.
BC had about as crappy an offense as you could get last year. Towles/Wade should be better and the oline should be much better. What this would generally mean is more aggressive playcalling. The strategy was clear last year ... don't screw up on offense, don't turn it over and let your defense win you the game. This was great at keeping BC in close games every week but not so great at winning them. I would like to say that I am positive they will be more aggressive but new offensive coordinator Loeffler ran pretty shitty schemes in the past and I wouldn't hold my breath. The GT defense was not very good last year giving up 5.8 or so yards per play. I do think they improve on that and certainly don't expect that kind of production out of BC but again, this team has given up points in just about every regular season game in recent memory. I think the combination of better oline play and better qb play could show itself in week one for BC, and I also think they will be slightly more aggressive which could lead to a big play via turnover at some point. I am being very speculative on BC but I really foresee a faster paced team than last year, a better third down team than last year (127th last year) and potentially more aggressive playcalling (again wouldn't old my breath on that).
This could easily be a game that is mucky and ends 13-7 and I feel like an idiot but I think both offensive units improve year over year and feel we are getting a 2015 number to shoot at.
24-23, 27-20, 30-20, 20-24, 23-23, 24-24, 20-20 are all quite doable in a grinding game here without big plays ...
Again, this is probably the game I will have the most regret backing (maybe the over in the clemson aub game is a close second given I will need Clemson to score big there for that to happen) and not sure I clearly conveyed my thinking or not in this post. Need average QB play.
The hardest game for me to pull the trigger on and invest is next up to talk about and that is Georgia Tech vs Boston College in Dublin, Ireland. I suspect the fans will be heavily in favor of Boston College for obvious reasons ... but I am going to discuss the total here and think the game is fairly well lined from a side perspective anyway.
I am going against quite a few of my normal indicators on this total on my over investment. From a pace perspective we are looking at two VERY slow teams. Both are in my top 40 for sluggish pace. Both teams are run first and neither threw for 1500 yards last year. Boston College gave up fewer big plays than any team in college football last year.
When I cap college football, I ask the basic questions and I usually mention this thread one of every season .... What does team A like to do when they have the ball? Can B stop it? In cfb, unlike the nfl, most teams cannot change their identity when it is warranted by the opponent stopping them. You are gonna do what you are gonna do. Some balanced teams with a good coach and good QB can do it but not many. And here we know GT is going to run the ball a lot. And Boston College gave up a high of 155 yards on the ground last year to cuse and the most yards per carry they gave up in a game was 4.21ypc to NCSU. They held FSU to 98, Clemson to 112 and held 7 of 12 opponents under 100 yards rushing.
So how can I expect GT to score a bunch here?
Well, the reality is that great run defense does not always equate to stopping the option. And this has particularly been the case with Boston College. They have not faced the fbs option since 2013 and Army ran for 326 (most allowed all year) at 5.02 ypc (4th most allowed all year). In 2012, Army ran for 516 (most allowed all year by a long ways) and GT ran for 391 (2nd most allowed by a long ways). Now, I am not pointing this out to say that 2012 and 2013 results have a ton of relevance with regards to players on the field now... I am just pointing out that historically BC has struggled stopping the option while not historically struggling to stop the run in general.
And as you look over the BC team, it would appear their games should be higher scoring this season. They have defensive staff turnover and lose some good players at the first two levels of the defense. While I think they are still pretty good in the front seven it is definitely going to drop off quite a bit in the run defense area. Also, their secondary is pretty good but does that really apply to much here, against this opponent?
GT total offense dropped about 100 yards per game from 2014 to 2015. They dropped from 37.9 pts per game to 29.3 last year and even that was skewed upward because of the huge outputs the first two weeks. A couple of things happened to cause this. They were young where it counted on the oline and rb but another thing that contributed was they just didn't have the true WR threat they had in some prior years to keep defenses honest and burn them when they weren't. I don't think the WR part has been fixed and it is just going to get harder to recruit that type of player to GT going forward. I just don't see many Calvin Johnson's or Demaryius Thomas type players choosing the option offense too often. But this year the bread and butter should be improved. Even with last years struggles, the team scored 20 or more in every regular season game and they have scored 20 or more in 35 of their last 37 games. Only on GT game all of last year finished under the current totaled number and that was the FSU game. Of course, EVERY Boston College game against FBS competition went under this number last year. The bottom line here is that I feel GT is just gonna score pts with what they do, even when they struggle. I like Johnson as a head coach and expect him to get things in order and I actually like Justin Thomas as a football player in the system. So I asked myself do I think GT finds the twenties or more and the answer was yes.
BC had about as crappy an offense as you could get last year. Towles/Wade should be better and the oline should be much better. What this would generally mean is more aggressive playcalling. The strategy was clear last year ... don't screw up on offense, don't turn it over and let your defense win you the game. This was great at keeping BC in close games every week but not so great at winning them. I would like to say that I am positive they will be more aggressive but new offensive coordinator Loeffler ran pretty shitty schemes in the past and I wouldn't hold my breath. The GT defense was not very good last year giving up 5.8 or so yards per play. I do think they improve on that and certainly don't expect that kind of production out of BC but again, this team has given up points in just about every regular season game in recent memory. I think the combination of better oline play and better qb play could show itself in week one for BC, and I also think they will be slightly more aggressive which could lead to a big play via turnover at some point. I am being very speculative on BC but I really foresee a faster paced team than last year, a better third down team than last year (127th last year) and potentially more aggressive playcalling (again wouldn't old my breath on that).
This could easily be a game that is mucky and ends 13-7 and I feel like an idiot but I think both offensive units improve year over year and feel we are getting a 2015 number to shoot at.
24-23, 27-20, 30-20, 20-24, 23-23, 24-24, 20-20 are all quite doable in a grinding game here without big plays ...
Again, this is probably the game I will have the most regret backing (maybe the over in the clemson aub game is a close second given I will need Clemson to score big there for that to happen) and not sure I clearly conveyed my thinking or not in this post. Need average QB play.
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
Twinkie, I was reading an article about Eason and Lambert the other day and it mentioned how Lambert went to the checkdown too often and too early in the progression. This allowed teams to load up to stop the run without the fear of being burned deep, thus making the UGA offense less effectual than one would normally think. It appears Eason is more comfortable throwing deep. He looks comfortable in the pocket as well in the clip I am about to attach and while being thrown to the wolves, he will have a good oline to protect him.
Check this out
http://<iframe width="560" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/imhH86mFgHw" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe>
Check this out
http://<iframe width="560" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/imhH86mFgHw" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe>
AliShaheed
Pretty much a regular
Great thoughts, thanks.
I'm not a big totals guy but agree on the under. Though, I might be slightly more interested in a SC team total under. My only concern is if Bama goes off and then we see a few defensive lapses late with the game out of hand to push it over. I think if you're a SC backer a parlay with the under should be an automatic. It's the only way they're going to get this done.
A few thoughts of mine from a more murky, intangible angle:
-SC hasn't played an OOC game of this magnitude since...2008 Rose Bowl? No big game OOC experience on the current roster or from the coaching staff. They rarely leave the west coast for their bowl game and the last time they did was their infamous no-show in El Paso against Georgia Tech. Recent bowl games in San Diego vs Nebraska and Wisky were both disappointments and a loss ATS. Other recent regular season OOC matchups far away from home have included games as heavy favorites against Syracuse (a win but a total stinker and a loss ATS) and BC (an outright loss). Going up against Bama in primetime is just not something that USC has any experience with. On the other hand...Bama are pro's. They do this every single year.
-Significant coaching advantage for Bama.
-Kiffin revenge factor. I have no doubt that if given the opportunity he will keep his foot firmly on the gas for all 4 quarters. This makes me feel better about a possible backdoor. But also, backdoors are slightly harder to achieve with a slow paced, ground based team and a green qb going up against a blood thirsty DL. Put the game on Browne's shoulders to erase a large deficit and it could get really ugly.
-Bama DL vs SC OL. Probably the most important matchup of the game. I know SC OL is getting a lot of hype but again I'm not sure if their resume includes any performance of note versus a DL like Bama with proven NFL studs.
-There will be a decided home field advantage for Bama. SC fans don't even travel to nearby PAC schools when their team is good. They're not making the trek to Dallas for this one. I expect Bama to pack that building. You'd have to lay 2 td's+ to play Bama at home. Getting under 2td's and still keeping something of a HFA seems like a good price to me.
-Pro-style offenses tend to get eaten up by Bama.
I'm not a big totals guy but agree on the under. Though, I might be slightly more interested in a SC team total under. My only concern is if Bama goes off and then we see a few defensive lapses late with the game out of hand to push it over. I think if you're a SC backer a parlay with the under should be an automatic. It's the only way they're going to get this done.
A few thoughts of mine from a more murky, intangible angle:
-SC hasn't played an OOC game of this magnitude since...2008 Rose Bowl? No big game OOC experience on the current roster or from the coaching staff. They rarely leave the west coast for their bowl game and the last time they did was their infamous no-show in El Paso against Georgia Tech. Recent bowl games in San Diego vs Nebraska and Wisky were both disappointments and a loss ATS. Other recent regular season OOC matchups far away from home have included games as heavy favorites against Syracuse (a win but a total stinker and a loss ATS) and BC (an outright loss). Going up against Bama in primetime is just not something that USC has any experience with. On the other hand...Bama are pro's. They do this every single year.
-Significant coaching advantage for Bama.
-Kiffin revenge factor. I have no doubt that if given the opportunity he will keep his foot firmly on the gas for all 4 quarters. This makes me feel better about a possible backdoor. But also, backdoors are slightly harder to achieve with a slow paced, ground based team and a green qb going up against a blood thirsty DL. Put the game on Browne's shoulders to erase a large deficit and it could get really ugly.
-Bama DL vs SC OL. Probably the most important matchup of the game. I know SC OL is getting a lot of hype but again I'm not sure if their resume includes any performance of note versus a DL like Bama with proven NFL studs.
-There will be a decided home field advantage for Bama. SC fans don't even travel to nearby PAC schools when their team is good. They're not making the trek to Dallas for this one. I expect Bama to pack that building. You'd have to lay 2 td's+ to play Bama at home. Getting under 2td's and still keeping something of a HFA seems like a good price to me.
-Pro-style offenses tend to get eaten up by Bama.
Alan Tongue
Pretty much a regular
Midday saturday
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
Wow. Great thoughts. I particularly found this point you made compelling. I agree that Kiffin will Kobe them if he gets the chance and I agree that this is not the type of game where I would expect USC to pull off a backdoor cover, though I love Juju. The problem, as I see it for Kiffin to do that is that they don't have the QB available to rub it in this game if they wanted to. They are going to have to mash USC up front (which does appear doable). The QB's battling for a position for Bama have been somewhat woeful in camp by most sources, though scrimmages are against particularly amazing defensive talent so there is that to factor in. This isn't going to be Coker against Clemson or something along those lines. They don't have the horse right now, imo. BUT, I agree that Kiffin will rub it in if he can.
Btw, Browne was, in fact, named starter yesterday afternoon.
Really enjoyed your post. Not familiar with you and why you only have a couple of posts but feel free to contribute in my thread any time.
I would beg to differ on USC not having any experience playing big ooc games. The Notre Dame game is a pretty big OOC game every year for them. That may be slightly different since they are so familiar with eachother and it being an annual game but it is still a very big ooc game to play every single year compared to what most programs schedule.
Obviously agree on the huge coaching edge.
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
AliShaheed
Pretty much a regular
Thanks
Whoops. Totally forgot about ND. It's a big game for sure. But as you mentioned, slightly different given that they play every year and it's not exactly a dramatic change of scenery.
pressitup
Leader of the Adult Humor Industry
1977 Michigan 41 Ags 3. And the Ags were still running the friggin wishbone as the game continued to move away from them.
I know tu..ooops...ut did the same thing in games as they got behind. Not that James Street was going to bomb his way out for the horns. Unless it was to Cotton Speyer vs. Arky----sorry I digressed back to '69.
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
Hah. Ya. It is just a completely different animal than if you are in the nfl and load up to stop AP ... they are gonna beat ya with pass ... hell, in the nfl they are gonna audible on a play by play basis with the ability to attack you where you are aligned vulnerable. Just doesn't happen in college.
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
Ok I took NMSU plus 8. This game opened way lower, a whole bunch of smart money came in on UTEP and it just kept going up from there, where it peaked around 8 before dropping to 7 and now it is back to 7.5. Interesting. Before I talk about the game, I want to divulge to those that don't know, that I am a UTEP Alumni and a fan of their football team.
HFA ...
It's a little over a half hour drive from Aggie Memorial Stadium to the Sun Bowl. I have made the drive several times. It is quick and easy. This isn't a normal road game in that sense. It is the opener and UTEP has some expectations so I expect a decent crowd and even quite a few aggies will be at the game.
I think when you are a terrible team like nmsu you can bring up revenge angles a lot and they will be meaningless. They lose and lose and lose ..... winning teams don't have a ton of revenge to dish out. However, this game is a rare exception in my eyes. The Aggies were in complete control of the Miners last year with a 14 point lead with 4:07 left in the game. but Aggies like to be Aggies (sorry Press) and they gave up a 75 yard drive in under a minute and allowed a 48 yard td pass to cut it to 7. then they needed to just get one first down to finish the game but they fell one yard short and punted on fourth and 1. They punted and pinned utep at the 2 yard line. No problem. They quickly went 98 yards and tied the game and then won in overtime. What you might not know is that NMSU was actually doing some early celebrating late in that game. They thought they were winning and they hadn't beaten UTEP in quite a while. That was a brutal loss for them. This game is always circled to an extent but I think NMSU wants this one really bad.
I also think NMSU turned a corner last year. They won 3 games and 4 of their losses, including the miner game, were by single digits (3 by 1 score). They were close. Their offense finished in the top of five or six of sunbelt teams in just about every category imaginable other than completion percentage. They outgained their opponents in 4 of their last 5 games and in their last three road games. They were outgained by a yard against utep last year, which means prior to the 173 yards utep gained in the last 4 minutes they were doing really well there. usually when you look at nmsu, you see horrible disparity in yards for and against. And sure, you can look at the aggregate from last year and see that they were minus 1000 yards or so again but this time it was all loaded in three mismatch games against Florida, Ole Miss and Ga Southern where they were outgained by just over 1000 yards. Team has lots of wr talent, the rb is the best offensive skill player in the entire conference in my opinion, they have a QB battle going on right now between Tyler Rogers who started the beginning of last year and Tyler Matthews the guy who lost the QB battle at TCU (His brother was recruited by nmsu so they got lucky). Either are capable in this offense, I would think and it obviously gives them depth. On a bit of a tangent, I am quite bullish on nmsu. I actually give them an outside chance at going bowling this year. I certainly think 4 or 5 wins is in the cards. Most important for me is that I think they are going to be a wonderful ATS team all year. Their offense is going to give them backdoor covers left and right. They have their best DC since .. well, hell ... I can't remember this team ever getting a DC the quality of Frank Spaziani and I have been following nmsu football dating back to the local coverage in the late eighties. Spaz cannot make these slow, undersized, and low talented players suddenly great athletes or a great defense. They will stink again but he has a ton of experienced players to work with and coach up. They will definitely be a better defensive team this year. Back to my bullish nmsu predictions ... I cannot say that I actually predict nmsu to win both unm and utep rivalry games because I have them dogged in both but let me just say that I have a feeling they could do just that. Given the history this is a pretty bold prediction. Rose is recovering from a minor hernia surgery so his status for the game is now up in the air which is why you saw the game move above the 7 to 7.5 in recent days. It does matter a lot. They seem positive he will be ready for unm and I am hoping he is able to go against the miners.
I love the UTEP RB, I think there is sort of an average depth at the qb position, I think Kugler knows how to coach up line play pretty well, I like the UTEP physical style which I think plays well in their conference, and I think they have one of the easiest schedules in all of cfb this year which gives them a chance to compete in the conference and for a bowl. With that said, where do you find the second score advantage for this team against nmsu. Excluding the 1 yard advantage they had over nmsu in last years game, they outgained just four opponents and like nmsu were outgained by 1000 yards. They did play in a tougher conference than the aggies but if nmsu had won that matchup last year, like they sort of deserved to (and sort of didn't) then instead of looking at a 3-9 nmsu and 5-7 utep we would be looking at two 4-8 squads. UTEP's losses were mostly pretty standard losses. I watched the latech where i believe they deserved to win but caught a few bad breaks to lose by two. But we are talking about a team that was outgained by incarnate word. To be fair, the offense was going to be centered around A. Jones who is a really good player and he got hurt I believe in the second game of the year. He then proceeded to get pulled over on suspicion of dwi back in march. I also want to mention that UTEP is changing some schemes and that is tough to do with bad athletes in game 1 against a potent offense.
NMSU has shown they can move the ball on the miners. I think their defense is improved and assuming Rose iii is able to make a go of it, I don't see why the aggies don't compete in this game ... heck, I am not sure utep is all that much better than the aggies this season as football teams in general. If the aggies are behind a bit going into the fourth, we would certainly have a really good shot at the backdoor. I will feel cheated if rose doesn't play in this game because he is the best offensive player in the conference and to lose him between when I made my plays and kickoff would be brutal.
I dunno ... I really like this one.
HFA ...
It's a little over a half hour drive from Aggie Memorial Stadium to the Sun Bowl. I have made the drive several times. It is quick and easy. This isn't a normal road game in that sense. It is the opener and UTEP has some expectations so I expect a decent crowd and even quite a few aggies will be at the game.
I think when you are a terrible team like nmsu you can bring up revenge angles a lot and they will be meaningless. They lose and lose and lose ..... winning teams don't have a ton of revenge to dish out. However, this game is a rare exception in my eyes. The Aggies were in complete control of the Miners last year with a 14 point lead with 4:07 left in the game. but Aggies like to be Aggies (sorry Press) and they gave up a 75 yard drive in under a minute and allowed a 48 yard td pass to cut it to 7. then they needed to just get one first down to finish the game but they fell one yard short and punted on fourth and 1. They punted and pinned utep at the 2 yard line. No problem. They quickly went 98 yards and tied the game and then won in overtime. What you might not know is that NMSU was actually doing some early celebrating late in that game. They thought they were winning and they hadn't beaten UTEP in quite a while. That was a brutal loss for them. This game is always circled to an extent but I think NMSU wants this one really bad.
I also think NMSU turned a corner last year. They won 3 games and 4 of their losses, including the miner game, were by single digits (3 by 1 score). They were close. Their offense finished in the top of five or six of sunbelt teams in just about every category imaginable other than completion percentage. They outgained their opponents in 4 of their last 5 games and in their last three road games. They were outgained by a yard against utep last year, which means prior to the 173 yards utep gained in the last 4 minutes they were doing really well there. usually when you look at nmsu, you see horrible disparity in yards for and against. And sure, you can look at the aggregate from last year and see that they were minus 1000 yards or so again but this time it was all loaded in three mismatch games against Florida, Ole Miss and Ga Southern where they were outgained by just over 1000 yards. Team has lots of wr talent, the rb is the best offensive skill player in the entire conference in my opinion, they have a QB battle going on right now between Tyler Rogers who started the beginning of last year and Tyler Matthews the guy who lost the QB battle at TCU (His brother was recruited by nmsu so they got lucky). Either are capable in this offense, I would think and it obviously gives them depth. On a bit of a tangent, I am quite bullish on nmsu. I actually give them an outside chance at going bowling this year. I certainly think 4 or 5 wins is in the cards. Most important for me is that I think they are going to be a wonderful ATS team all year. Their offense is going to give them backdoor covers left and right. They have their best DC since .. well, hell ... I can't remember this team ever getting a DC the quality of Frank Spaziani and I have been following nmsu football dating back to the local coverage in the late eighties. Spaz cannot make these slow, undersized, and low talented players suddenly great athletes or a great defense. They will stink again but he has a ton of experienced players to work with and coach up. They will definitely be a better defensive team this year. Back to my bullish nmsu predictions ... I cannot say that I actually predict nmsu to win both unm and utep rivalry games because I have them dogged in both but let me just say that I have a feeling they could do just that. Given the history this is a pretty bold prediction. Rose is recovering from a minor hernia surgery so his status for the game is now up in the air which is why you saw the game move above the 7 to 7.5 in recent days. It does matter a lot. They seem positive he will be ready for unm and I am hoping he is able to go against the miners.
I love the UTEP RB, I think there is sort of an average depth at the qb position, I think Kugler knows how to coach up line play pretty well, I like the UTEP physical style which I think plays well in their conference, and I think they have one of the easiest schedules in all of cfb this year which gives them a chance to compete in the conference and for a bowl. With that said, where do you find the second score advantage for this team against nmsu. Excluding the 1 yard advantage they had over nmsu in last years game, they outgained just four opponents and like nmsu were outgained by 1000 yards. They did play in a tougher conference than the aggies but if nmsu had won that matchup last year, like they sort of deserved to (and sort of didn't) then instead of looking at a 3-9 nmsu and 5-7 utep we would be looking at two 4-8 squads. UTEP's losses were mostly pretty standard losses. I watched the latech where i believe they deserved to win but caught a few bad breaks to lose by two. But we are talking about a team that was outgained by incarnate word. To be fair, the offense was going to be centered around A. Jones who is a really good player and he got hurt I believe in the second game of the year. He then proceeded to get pulled over on suspicion of dwi back in march. I also want to mention that UTEP is changing some schemes and that is tough to do with bad athletes in game 1 against a potent offense.
NMSU has shown they can move the ball on the miners. I think their defense is improved and assuming Rose iii is able to make a go of it, I don't see why the aggies don't compete in this game ... heck, I am not sure utep is all that much better than the aggies this season as football teams in general. If the aggies are behind a bit going into the fourth, we would certainly have a really good shot at the backdoor. I will feel cheated if rose doesn't play in this game because he is the best offensive player in the conference and to lose him between when I made my plays and kickoff would be brutal.
I dunno ... I really like this one.
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RetroVK
This claim is disputed
I am not going to write up the SJSU game but I will say that I have them as the higher power rated team. This is just an easy play for me when I cross the zero, the three and the 4 with a dog that I think is superior to the favorite.
From a match up perspective, the main thing I liked about this game was that SJSU was the second best pass defense (from a yards given up perspective, certainly not yards per attempt perspective) in college football last year. I am not saying they were a top two pass defense or even a top twenty pass defense (they played against two option teams for petes sake) but they were pretty good. They lose a little of the secondary but have a Washington Huskies transfer that should help some and I don't think the WR Garret for Tulsa is really immediately replaceable. SJSU great recruiting class is going to start paying dividends this year and they are a decent little team. I have never been an Evans fan though I think he has improved and I do have some concern that the offense appeared to make strides from the bowl practices and this will be year two of that system.
It is a high fluctuation type game so I won't be surprised if Tulsa wins or wins by dd but all the value is sjsu and I had to take a stab at that even though i missed the great openers you could have taken.
From a match up perspective, the main thing I liked about this game was that SJSU was the second best pass defense (from a yards given up perspective, certainly not yards per attempt perspective) in college football last year. I am not saying they were a top two pass defense or even a top twenty pass defense (they played against two option teams for petes sake) but they were pretty good. They lose a little of the secondary but have a Washington Huskies transfer that should help some and I don't think the WR Garret for Tulsa is really immediately replaceable. SJSU great recruiting class is going to start paying dividends this year and they are a decent little team. I have never been an Evans fan though I think he has improved and I do have some concern that the offense appeared to make strides from the bowl practices and this will be year two of that system.
It is a high fluctuation type game so I won't be surprised if Tulsa wins or wins by dd but all the value is sjsu and I had to take a stab at that even though i missed the great openers you could have taken.
Jimmydafreak
Pretty much a regular
I agree on the UNDER for the Bama game - although I prefer the 1st half under. After having viewed yesterday's scrimmage it's still difficult to call the QB situation, and the RBs are a bit of a question mark for me as well.
I hate to put too much stock in a single scrimmage, because it can be terribly misleading. Nevertheless, based on what occurred in a very scripted scrimmage was that none of the QBs looked particularly good. By all accounts Alabama's defense should be stellar once again this season. So do the QBs look mediocre because the defense is so good? I think that's certainly part of it, but to what degree I have no clue. I think what has been established thus far is that Jalen Hurts is the most talented of the three, and most certainly has the highest ceiling. The problem is he is probably the least prepared to play Week 1 against USC. Regardless of whether he gets the start against USC or not, I think Hurts has demonstrated that he's too good to sit on the bench all season. Thus, I am very confident in saying that Jalen Hurts will see playing time this season. Will he start against USC? I would say probably not. If Hurts doesn't get the starting nod, Cooper Bateman probably will.
RB Bo Scarbrough has either been injured or suspended during his entire tenure at Alabama, so now this is his chance to shine as the new workhorse in the Alabama run-game. He was supposedly "dinged" in the first scrimmage, and did not play yesterday, so what am I suppose to take away from that, if anything? The one thing the previous two QB neophytes could rely on was a powerful rushing attack to help take the pressure off of the QB position. Will Alabama's new QB be able to rely upon the same? So was Bo held out for precautionary reasons (probably), Because he's still dinged (probably), or is he struggling to stay generally healthy? (I would say probably to that as well).
So where does that leave us for USC game? I think we'll see a very conservative approach regardless of who's under center, which will likely result in several punts. And because I think USC's will struggle mightily with Alabama's defense, I think this game screams UNDER from the high heavens - particularly in the first half.
:cheers3:
wiseplayer
Pretty much a regular
FYI, NIU's QB situation was not good. If I'm not mistaken they were down to the 4th string QB and had no motivation after getting beat up in their conference finals. It got ugly quick for them before the Bowl game
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
Ahhh nice to see you seeing it the same given your good history of knowing the bama team. I have a feeling we are seeing the game similarly with where the final score ranges would fall in most of the bell curve
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
Before the bowl, Graham threw 9 of 12 for 132 at Toledo, 15 of 24 for 190 at Buffalo, 11 of 23 for 158 vs western mich, and 11 of 17 for 142 against ohio.... obviously those aren't the same kind of numbers Drew Hare was producing in that offense. Big difference no doubt. Articles I have read said that the NIU coach felt the defense was currently ahead of the offense. I dunno if I always believe the HC's in these types of quotes but take it fwiw.
Another guy I respect basically said the following back in July ... " Seems like a typical game where we have hope for Wyoming only for them to lose (by) 24"
On paper, I should really love this game and of course I played it ... but something doesn't feel right.
Alan Tongue
Pretty much a regular
Excellent as always :cheers3:
gps_3
Head of Alabama Department of Decision-Making
My concern with the under, particularly the 1H under, is that while Alabama will be conservative, I'm not sure USC will. The first half of the first game is the best chance for any team to be successful against Alabama's defense. I could see this as the time where Helton has some plays and formations that aren't on film that they've been practicing all summer and camp that can catch the defense by surprise. As good as Alabama's defense can be, this particular iteration has not played a game together yet, so there will likely be some communication issues. After half, Alabama's defense will have had time to adjust, as will the offense, and that's where the depth factor comes into play. I did a quick look at the halftime totals of Alabama's last few neutral site openers. They were 21, 37, 38, 38.
I haven't found a play on the game that I love, so I may be sitting it out and just watching as a fan, but good luck on your plays if you make them.
wiseplayer
Pretty much a regular
This is a great thread. Thanks for putting in the time.
twinkie13
In transit, arriving late.
yep....he looks good
with him and what Ole Miss has coming and I even think Myles Brennan for LSU.....we are about to see some QB play in the league
gps_3
Head of Alabama Department of Decision-Making
Reports are that Hurts is the most impressive QB in the Alabama camp. May not factor in this year, but moving forward with the WR we have, could be fun
twinkie13
In transit, arriving late.
yea the WR class as we talked is pretty sick....LSU's too
don't know much about Hurts, but he will have horses around him
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
I think I am a little rusty on market or I am just so limited that I am not paying as much attention as I should be. There was no reason to play that GT/BC over when it is likely going to keep going down. should have waited for resistance pts ... particularly when it is an over investment and I assume this is an outdoor game in Ireland where weather could easily be an issue. I reread my thoughts I posted on that game and it almost makes as good a case for the under as the over.... meaning the level of conviction on that play is pretty low.
If you plan on taking that over, my advice to you (that I didn't take for myself) would be to wait until a point of resistance on the downward momentum before getting involved.
Just not approaching this professionally anymore, guys. Sorry.
If you plan on taking that over, my advice to you (that I didn't take for myself) would be to wait until a point of resistance on the downward momentum before getting involved.
Just not approaching this professionally anymore, guys. Sorry.
Dollaz
Pretty much a regular
You got me to look at UTEP game. Saw them in person at ODU last year and man were they bad. They started off good with that gigantic offensive line, but once ODU committed to stopping the run, it was pretty much over. Still, I'm surprised most projections have ODU favorted to win @UTEP or at least pick em.
NMSU should be be able to move the ball fairly easy. The only concern from me is UTEP just overpowering them with that huge OL against a very small front with NMSu.
NMSU should be be able to move the ball fairly easy. The only concern from me is UTEP just overpowering them with that huge OL against a very small front with NMSu.
JohnnyGambler
Kevin Warren Fan Club Founder
Long-time lurker, first-time poster. Much respect.
I'd like to pick your brain a bit more on SJSU. I really like Tulsa here. I'm never one to lay wood with a bad defense, and Tulsa was horrible last year, but by my count they only lost 3 starters on D so they should improve. They also don't face an explosive offense in SJSU. Apart from the ECU game last year Tulsa's losses came against Oklahoma, Houston, Memphis, Cincinnati (with Kiel), and Navy...big time veteran, talented QBs and great offenses. Potter is nice but he's not great and their WR certainly aren't great either (already lost the #3 for the year). Their returning RB were terrible last season. Ervin was their horse and is now in the NFL. I just don't know if SJSU has the horses to keep up, even against a bad defense.
Tulsa will score. They lost their best WR but still return a great one that had over 1000 yards and two others that averaged 10 yards a target. Evans in second year in this system will be better and at the pace they play at they will score. Tulsa scored on good teams last year which is a huge indicator to me of how good they really are on offense. 38 points and 600 yards on OKLA is impressive. VT was down last year but 52 points and 580 yards on Bud is also impressive. SJSU had a great pass D last year, yes, but 3/4 of their starting secondary are gone, including both starting CB, and they return 9.5 sacks total in the front 7! How are they going to get stops? Tulsa should be much more efficient in the ground game too. Their leading RB last year wasted 200 carries at 3.9 YPC. The two backups were much better.
SJSU's wins last year were against bad offenses, sans the bowl game against GSU. Reg season wins: New Hampshire, UNLV, New Mexico (backup QB), Hawaii, and Fresno. Horrible offenses. Now without their best offensive player I just don't see how they can keep up.
1/3 of that great recruiting class for SJSU is already off the team and Tulsa ranks only 8 spots worse in 2-year recruiting.
I'd like to pick your brain a bit more on SJSU. I really like Tulsa here. I'm never one to lay wood with a bad defense, and Tulsa was horrible last year, but by my count they only lost 3 starters on D so they should improve. They also don't face an explosive offense in SJSU. Apart from the ECU game last year Tulsa's losses came against Oklahoma, Houston, Memphis, Cincinnati (with Kiel), and Navy...big time veteran, talented QBs and great offenses. Potter is nice but he's not great and their WR certainly aren't great either (already lost the #3 for the year). Their returning RB were terrible last season. Ervin was their horse and is now in the NFL. I just don't know if SJSU has the horses to keep up, even against a bad defense.
Tulsa will score. They lost their best WR but still return a great one that had over 1000 yards and two others that averaged 10 yards a target. Evans in second year in this system will be better and at the pace they play at they will score. Tulsa scored on good teams last year which is a huge indicator to me of how good they really are on offense. 38 points and 600 yards on OKLA is impressive. VT was down last year but 52 points and 580 yards on Bud is also impressive. SJSU had a great pass D last year, yes, but 3/4 of their starting secondary are gone, including both starting CB, and they return 9.5 sacks total in the front 7! How are they going to get stops? Tulsa should be much more efficient in the ground game too. Their leading RB last year wasted 200 carries at 3.9 YPC. The two backups were much better.
SJSU's wins last year were against bad offenses, sans the bowl game against GSU. Reg season wins: New Hampshire, UNLV, New Mexico (backup QB), Hawaii, and Fresno. Horrible offenses. Now without their best offensive player I just don't see how they can keep up.
1/3 of that great recruiting class for SJSU is already off the team and Tulsa ranks only 8 spots worse in 2-year recruiting.
Jimmydafreak
Pretty much a regular
None of us can predict the future, but I think we can look at Alabama's track record against immobile, pro-style QBs as a guide. The last immobile, pro-style QB Alabama faced was a 4th round NFL draft pick and he wasn't able to score a single point. There is no question that USC has significant talent on the offensive side of the ball, but instead of facing a NFL 4th round draft pick, Alabama will be facing a guy making his first career start at the collegiate level. And as ferocious as Alabama's pass rush was last season, I expect to even be better this season. USC's offense boils down to whether their offensive line (and they are one of the best in the nation) can consistently open up creases in the running game, and protect Browne. I don't like their chances, which is why I like the UNDER.
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
Yes. I actually sent a text to Garfather today because we had very briefly brought up that total in some texts and I adjusted my total upward.
But again, Rose iii does matter if you are backing nmsu or the over.
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
Great post. Thanks for contributing at CTG.
I mentioned in post #123 that I didn't want to write up the sjsu game and the reason I don't is because to do so I would have to get into the performance vs average by team vs each opponent to make my point. I have done these types of writeups before and they get a little too long and a little convoluted so I try to avoid them. But, if you can switch from lurker to poster then I can make some time to write it all up.
You make some good points in your post too. I will address some of those now and get into the other stuff on the weekend when I get back home (Flew to St Louis today).
Obviously Ervin was a humongous part of their offense that they really have no way to replace this year, and certainly not week 1. I have no idea who the starting rb is even going to be, to be perfectly honest. Assume Cooper is the best, but I don't assume he will be the week 1 choice. By the sounds of it, you are a bigger fan of Potter than I am as well. He is serviceable but but not much more than that imo. The WR group loses Winston again, as you pointed out, this time to academics. Depth is an issue but this group is still just as good as last year and Johnson is probably the most talented guy from either season at the position. I agree with you again, they aren't anything special and as I already mentioned Potter doesn't excite me. Moreover, you would think the offense would have better success throwing with the opposing defense focused on stopping Ervin. I read an article either yesterday or this morning that was discussing a problem with dropped passes in the last scrimmage. I think a lot of it is mitigated by a pretty good offensive line though ... at least pretty good in the context of sjsu or tulsa. Their offense is just pretty average and that is what it will be all year, ..... run of the mill. I don't think we view their offense that differently to be honest. I do think you might be more speculatively optimistic about the tulsa defense. I mean, they will be better almost certainly because they can't get much worse and I do think they make the natural progression to being a little better via experience as well. One more thing about Ervin. While I think he was special and I don't think sjsu has a great rb to replace him with ... we are talking about the rb position which is probably the most easily replaced starting position on offense or defense. Good or average rb's are a dime a dozen. Again, I don't think they have anyone as good, I just don't value that position as much as most of the other positions when it comes to graduation or other forms of attrition.
Garrett led the country in receiving yards so I do think he is a huge loss for their offense and he was a big play player. I don't think he is easily replaced either.
I agree that Tulsa lost to some quality opponents and quality offenses but when you look at the other side of the ledger, who did they actually beat? 3-9 FAU (Old Dom, Charlotte, FIU), UNM 7-6 (best win- wyoming,nmsu, boise, utah st, hawaii, fcs and air force), 2-10 ulm (fcs and nmsu), 2-10 SMU (tulane and north texas), 0-12 UCF (an interteam scrimmage), 3-9 Tulane (FCS , UCF and Army). So a combined record of 17 - 56. UNM was their best win and a common opponent whom sjsu also defeated. I don't know if you remember the tulane game but it was an implosion by Tulane who outplayed them all game. They outgained smu and ucf by a combined 26 yards or so. So yes, their defeats met a different criteria than SJSU presents but we really don't have any quality wins, particularly against a similar style, from Tulsa last year to compare this to either because their one quality win was vs an option team.
Anyway, I will get into the other thing when i have time to do it right.
twinkie13
In transit, arriving late.
Frank Costanza
Co-Inventor of the Man's Bra
Since we've had nothing, zero, nada since McCoy, we'll wait and see. But, yes, even Strong seems to be having trouble holding in his excitement about Boo. Sterlin seems more tempered.
I'm cautiously optimistic. More so since the running game should really allow the young un to get comfortable with things. Helluva baptism on a Sunday night with the entire nation watching.
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
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