time to post my week 1 card so far
- Thread starter RetroVK
- Start date
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
I have them highly rated too but this line basically says nw=wmu. A little crazy imo
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
one game over .500 for the week with the fsu/olemiss total pending. I am pleased with the handicapping week 1 but caught some unfortunate breaks.
#147 Army +17 (no blurb will be offered) WINNER Grade A+ 1-0
Obviously this was a good play getting three scores while having a 25-16 yardage edge and a 93 yards advantage. This one was never really in question from 2nd qtr on. yay.
FUN TIDBIT or gambling note- I missed a good portion of this game as I was enjoying dinner with several CTG folks at hugo's at the four queens.
#165 Missouri +11.5 (+) Grade B (adjusted upon closer inspection) 2-0
I thought this game was one of my best capped of the day as I had the total under and Missouri but upon box score inspection, I think the total could have or potentially should have gone over so I adjusted my original A rating from post 1 to a B grade. I do think that both teams, particularly Missouri left points off the board so there could have been more challenge to the winning side. I will say that I may need to bump the WVU home field advantage number. Interesting Pass Interference interpretations that game which seemed to revolve around jersey color. One particularly egregious call was just hard to figure out with an uncatchable ball out the back of the end zone and no pass interference anyway. It led to the first TD. Anyway about 950 yards or so in the game which usually puts a game over a total of this size. It was never in much question but that was because of blown opportunities. Yardage and first downs relatively even as was the play to the human eye. So I feel unfortunate the played out the way it did as far as an even game but losing by over my spread amount. Missouri had first and goal for the backdoor cover but threw four times to the end zone without success. Ironically, the total was the lesser bet and was never in doubt for a winner and the side was the better bet and was down 26-3 at one point. strange game.
Fun Tidbit or gambling note - Make no mistake about it, Heupel is running the missouri team at a much faster pace than what they have been running at the last few years. Offense is better but more importantly, they will improve as they go and they will have a lot more plays in their games than what we have seen the last couple years.
#168 New Mexico State +8 N/A 2-1
After I placed my bet NMSU lost their best offensive and defensive player. So won't grade the play. But I did watch the game and UTEP certainly deserved the money.
Fun Tidbit or gambling note - I have one of each. The first is that nmsu was down 22 .. scored a td to cut it to 16 and then inexplicably went for 2 the next play. It was sitting on 22 because they missed an extra pt prior. The game landed 60 pts ... costing many early bettors (prior to Rose3 injury) what should have been an over cash. Another fun tidbit is that my alma mater is now 1-0 bitches. Another gambling note is that the nmsu defense is still the same. Small and slow and easy to destroy. But remember to keep an eye out for rose3 return as if he is fully healthy and market doesn't adjust to his healthy presence then you could find some value on an over or on nmsu
#173 Texas State +21 (+) Grade C 3-1
I cannot discuss this game. Too raw. Texas State was the right side, the under was not the right side though it sat at 20 points at halftime. I am still not sure what I was watching late in that game. Ohio had the ball up 3 with texas st out of timeouts. Third down near midfield or so ... ohio runner fumbles it away. Two plays later or so the texas st team rips a big td run. No worries ... Ohio scored a TD on a wr screen... I can't go on .. just can't rehash it ... if you want a good laugh watch the fourth qtr on of that game.
#175 Southern Miss +7 Grade A- 4-1
Hard game to grade as it was a tale of two halves really. USM finished with significant yardage edges and won by two scores. Reason it was hard to grade was that uk was up 35 to 10 at one point.
#187 San Jose State +5.5 F- 4-2
I missed the important part of this game as the Ohio Texas State game went into several overtimes and this game came on the same channel afterwards. By the time the texas st and ohio overtimes were over so was this game. I did watch a little bit of it and came away with the impression that the tulsa players looked bigger, stronger, faster, more confident and overall just superior. This will be an adjustment to my pr but I may need to wait a week before going overboard as it is just one game and I am not sure whether this was a product of sjsu, tulsa or both. i did note to myself heading into the year that tulsa was one of a short list of teams that i felt really improved from the end of the regular season last year to the bowl game. Those extra practices worked. It was an auto pr play and the deeper I dug, the better it kept looking to me but it was certainly wrong. I had extra money on this. Only Missouri had more of my invested money than sjsu, so very disappointed at the result. With that said, Tulsa is a volatile team, have a good hfa and are capable of crushing teams with no depth if they are not well prepared to stop what Tulsa does. Also, someone in the thread mentioned the likely inability of SJSU to keep up with tulsa ... I thought that played out to be true too .. so kudos to whoever that was. I would say the sjsu performance was probably the worst effort any of my teams put forth.
Fun tidbit - there was an earthquake in Oklahoma on game day. Tulsa may be worth a look going forward. Not sure if sjsu offensive ineptness, quitting or anything else factored into yesterday but the tulsa defense played better. If they turn the defense around, they could be a covering machine.
#208 Wyoming 10.5 (+) Winner Grade A 5-2
sigh. I had the under here too. Up 27-20 all Wyoming had to do was stop a fourth and ten, which would have basically resulted in knees and me winning the side and total. Alas, they could not make that play and eventually niu would score the game tying td. Still Wyoming drove it down for a reasonable sized game winning fg (which would also cash my under) on the last play of the game. He kicked it right down the middle .. wyoming wins ... not so fast my friend. The niu coach called timeout right before the kick. His next attempt went wide right. Then in overtime niu fumbled a snap and wyoming recovered. Wyoming coach decides to pass two of three downs while setting up the fg attempt... guess he didn't want to risk another fg miss. So wyoming lines up for another last play game winning and kyle winning fg ... but he misses again. overtime goes to second overtime where the total is lost. Frustrating.
Fun tidbit or gambling note - Hare has an achilles issue as we knew before the game but his mobility is nowhere near the same as what we are used to. given his oline isn't that good right now, it really stifles their offense for him to be a statue. Something to keep an eye on. If he gets healthy wheels the offense will improve .. until then, don't expect those third down runs from the guy that you saw prior to his injury.
#142 Vanderbilt -3 LOSER Grade D+ 5-3
Thought South Carolina was probably the better team from what I watched. Vanderbilt gassed defensively late. Had a ten point lead and only gave up 13 to the other team, ouch. Missed a likely game pushing fg here too.
Fun tidbit or gambling note - Don't expect Mason to game manage well. See last South Carolina game winning fg drive to see what I mean. I think this was the most infuriating bad coaching decision for me this weekend. Also note that the s carolina fg kicker is the real deal for those of you that handicap.
#137/#138 Tulane/Wake Forest Under 43 Winner Grade A+ 6-3
Not much to add here. I didn't see a play of the game and the box score and play by play indicate I was clearly on the correct side and total.
#153/#154 Georgia Tech/Boston College Over 44 (-) loser Grade F 6-4
Worst fears came to fruition. Neither coach felt comfortable passing when that is where the offensive success was driven. Interesting in that if either coach had pushed the passing a little more, it would have opened up the run game. Thought BC did the best job, by far, of any team defending the option this weekend. They dominated the GT front. GT skill runners also appeared slow at the edge ... or bc is fast. Anyway, this was a bad bet.
#139/#140 Rice/WKU Under 63 Winner Grade C 7-4
Nothing to add here. WKU is going to be more pass dependent this year though. Also note that Rice DL played the run well but did not generate pass rush. Their defensive backs take bad angles and either over estimate their own speed or underestimate the speed of the opponent. How many times can the guy be three yards beyond you? Amazing plays made by offensive players in that game. Still went under though it could easily have gone over with a dropped TD pass and then interception in the end zone on the same drive late.
#165/#166 Missouri/WVU Under 50.5 (+) Winner Grade B+ 8-4
Already discussed
#171 South Alabama +32 (blurb post #83) Winner A 9-4
Where was my ml bet? I didn't see much of it. So don't want to comment until I have gone through the play by play
#171/#172 South Alabama/Miss State Under 57 Winner Grade A 10-4
See above
#173/#174 Texas State/Ohio Under 58 loser Grade C 10-5
Already discussed
#183 Clemson -7 Loser Grade C 10-6
#183/#184 Clemson/Auburn over 59 (-) Loser Grade F 10-7
6+3 = 9. 6+2 = 8. I am no longer am impressed with Scrutes college education. Incidentally, does anyone know of a game where a team lost because while leading by less than 7, they had an attempted fg blocked and returned for a TD. I have seen it in a tied game at least once (gt -fsu) but I don't recall having seen it EVER with the leading team losing that way. Someone correct me if I am wrong. What I have seen .. many, many, many times is a team go 90 yards in less than a minute. I hate to see that rewarded, much like i hated Paul Johnson being rewarded for his idiotic FG attempt decision in Dublin. Anyway, yardage differential says clemson the right side but it doesn't matter for that game. Almost don't want to give it a grade because the result was win but not cover no matter what happened on the field. Total was maybe the worst total bet I made this week.
#191/#192 Rutgers/Washington Under 55 Loser Grade B 10-8
Only 38 first downs combined and just 684 yards of offense. Unfortunately, there was a punt return for a td, a kickoff return for a td and interception return to the 4 yard line which resulted in a td the next play. Hard to grade this game because washington was ahead so much, so early.
#195/#19 UNC/UGA over 54.5 (blurb post #81) Winner D+ 11-8
Coin flip. Thought UNC should have run more since that is where uga was weak and since that was where they were having success. With that said, with no personal interest for either side in the game emotionally or financially, I thought UNC got the short end of the officiating stick. benfited from a safety and a kick return TD ... i dunno ... yardage sort of says under was better but i know there are a lot of hidden yards taken back from penalty.
#197/#198 Houston/Oklahoma Under 68 (+) winner Grade B 12-8
Yardage indicates under was the side. A few big plays as expected including the returned fg for a td.
Fun tidbit .. guess whose bets were negatively impacted by both the houston fg return td and the iron bowl fg return td
#201/#202 USC/Alabama Under 54 (+) Loser Grade B- 12-9
I think this game largely played out as I expected but even so, not sure I would back it again. The last few minutes of the first half just completely demoralized USC and they quit like west coast softy teams often do. Bama oline wore them out, kiffin kept the gas on as we knew they would. Game was sitting 20 at halftime with a 21.5 2h total .. so losing took some doing. sick.
#203 Boise State -20 Winner Grade A 13-9
Total domination.
#205/#206 BYU/Arizona Under 62.5 Winner Grade A 14-9
Angle here was new pace of BYU and that seemed to pan out. Only 743 yards. Just avoid overtime and cash.
#137 Tulane 17.5 Winner Grade A+ 15-9
Already covered
#291/#292 California/Hawaii Under 67 Loser, Grade F+ 15-10
barnum and bailey tackle better than these two teams. discussed outcome already in the thread
NDSU/Charleston Southern under 49 Winner Grade A 15-11
already discussed
Ohio 2h -9.5 -11 loser grade C- 15-12
see above texas st and total. I am still in shock at Ohio's defense. Did they hire scooter mcdougle as defensive coordinator?
nw -4 loser grade C- 15-13
I haven't had a chance to see the last play up close yet to see if it was called correctly at the goal line. QB fumbled going in for the game winning and bet covering score. With that said, I saw 80% of the plays in that game and thought Wmich looked like the better team. Stats from the box score bear that out as well. Wmich is a very backable mac squad. Bad bet though I don't know how it could be that bad given my known information as the line basically said they were even in power rating. Just no way I could make that case prior to the game.
TAMU/UCLA Loser Grade B- 15-14
Obviously this was a horrible beat but my B grade might be generous too. Thought there were missed opportunities in the first half for more points but teams settled for FG's. Yardage seems about right for the number ... so the bet appeared to be a coin flip but the way it lost was just brutal.
fun tidbit - Tamu named a football field after me. ok not really
#147 Army +17 (no blurb will be offered) WINNER Grade A+ 1-0
Obviously this was a good play getting three scores while having a 25-16 yardage edge and a 93 yards advantage. This one was never really in question from 2nd qtr on. yay.
FUN TIDBIT or gambling note- I missed a good portion of this game as I was enjoying dinner with several CTG folks at hugo's at the four queens.
#165 Missouri +11.5 (+) Grade B (adjusted upon closer inspection) 2-0
I thought this game was one of my best capped of the day as I had the total under and Missouri but upon box score inspection, I think the total could have or potentially should have gone over so I adjusted my original A rating from post 1 to a B grade. I do think that both teams, particularly Missouri left points off the board so there could have been more challenge to the winning side. I will say that I may need to bump the WVU home field advantage number. Interesting Pass Interference interpretations that game which seemed to revolve around jersey color. One particularly egregious call was just hard to figure out with an uncatchable ball out the back of the end zone and no pass interference anyway. It led to the first TD. Anyway about 950 yards or so in the game which usually puts a game over a total of this size. It was never in much question but that was because of blown opportunities. Yardage and first downs relatively even as was the play to the human eye. So I feel unfortunate the played out the way it did as far as an even game but losing by over my spread amount. Missouri had first and goal for the backdoor cover but threw four times to the end zone without success. Ironically, the total was the lesser bet and was never in doubt for a winner and the side was the better bet and was down 26-3 at one point. strange game.
Fun Tidbit or gambling note - Make no mistake about it, Heupel is running the missouri team at a much faster pace than what they have been running at the last few years. Offense is better but more importantly, they will improve as they go and they will have a lot more plays in their games than what we have seen the last couple years.
#168 New Mexico State +8 N/A 2-1
After I placed my bet NMSU lost their best offensive and defensive player. So won't grade the play. But I did watch the game and UTEP certainly deserved the money.
Fun Tidbit or gambling note - I have one of each. The first is that nmsu was down 22 .. scored a td to cut it to 16 and then inexplicably went for 2 the next play. It was sitting on 22 because they missed an extra pt prior. The game landed 60 pts ... costing many early bettors (prior to Rose3 injury) what should have been an over cash. Another fun tidbit is that my alma mater is now 1-0 bitches. Another gambling note is that the nmsu defense is still the same. Small and slow and easy to destroy. But remember to keep an eye out for rose3 return as if he is fully healthy and market doesn't adjust to his healthy presence then you could find some value on an over or on nmsu
#173 Texas State +21 (+) Grade C 3-1
I cannot discuss this game. Too raw. Texas State was the right side, the under was not the right side though it sat at 20 points at halftime. I am still not sure what I was watching late in that game. Ohio had the ball up 3 with texas st out of timeouts. Third down near midfield or so ... ohio runner fumbles it away. Two plays later or so the texas st team rips a big td run. No worries ... Ohio scored a TD on a wr screen... I can't go on .. just can't rehash it ... if you want a good laugh watch the fourth qtr on of that game.
#175 Southern Miss +7 Grade A- 4-1
Hard game to grade as it was a tale of two halves really. USM finished with significant yardage edges and won by two scores. Reason it was hard to grade was that uk was up 35 to 10 at one point.
#187 San Jose State +5.5 F- 4-2
I missed the important part of this game as the Ohio Texas State game went into several overtimes and this game came on the same channel afterwards. By the time the texas st and ohio overtimes were over so was this game. I did watch a little bit of it and came away with the impression that the tulsa players looked bigger, stronger, faster, more confident and overall just superior. This will be an adjustment to my pr but I may need to wait a week before going overboard as it is just one game and I am not sure whether this was a product of sjsu, tulsa or both. i did note to myself heading into the year that tulsa was one of a short list of teams that i felt really improved from the end of the regular season last year to the bowl game. Those extra practices worked. It was an auto pr play and the deeper I dug, the better it kept looking to me but it was certainly wrong. I had extra money on this. Only Missouri had more of my invested money than sjsu, so very disappointed at the result. With that said, Tulsa is a volatile team, have a good hfa and are capable of crushing teams with no depth if they are not well prepared to stop what Tulsa does. Also, someone in the thread mentioned the likely inability of SJSU to keep up with tulsa ... I thought that played out to be true too .. so kudos to whoever that was. I would say the sjsu performance was probably the worst effort any of my teams put forth.
Fun tidbit - there was an earthquake in Oklahoma on game day. Tulsa may be worth a look going forward. Not sure if sjsu offensive ineptness, quitting or anything else factored into yesterday but the tulsa defense played better. If they turn the defense around, they could be a covering machine.
#208 Wyoming 10.5 (+) Winner Grade A 5-2
sigh. I had the under here too. Up 27-20 all Wyoming had to do was stop a fourth and ten, which would have basically resulted in knees and me winning the side and total. Alas, they could not make that play and eventually niu would score the game tying td. Still Wyoming drove it down for a reasonable sized game winning fg (which would also cash my under) on the last play of the game. He kicked it right down the middle .. wyoming wins ... not so fast my friend. The niu coach called timeout right before the kick. His next attempt went wide right. Then in overtime niu fumbled a snap and wyoming recovered. Wyoming coach decides to pass two of three downs while setting up the fg attempt... guess he didn't want to risk another fg miss. So wyoming lines up for another last play game winning and kyle winning fg ... but he misses again. overtime goes to second overtime where the total is lost. Frustrating.
Fun tidbit or gambling note - Hare has an achilles issue as we knew before the game but his mobility is nowhere near the same as what we are used to. given his oline isn't that good right now, it really stifles their offense for him to be a statue. Something to keep an eye on. If he gets healthy wheels the offense will improve .. until then, don't expect those third down runs from the guy that you saw prior to his injury.
#142 Vanderbilt -3 LOSER Grade D+ 5-3
Thought South Carolina was probably the better team from what I watched. Vanderbilt gassed defensively late. Had a ten point lead and only gave up 13 to the other team, ouch. Missed a likely game pushing fg here too.
Fun tidbit or gambling note - Don't expect Mason to game manage well. See last South Carolina game winning fg drive to see what I mean. I think this was the most infuriating bad coaching decision for me this weekend. Also note that the s carolina fg kicker is the real deal for those of you that handicap.
#137/#138 Tulane/Wake Forest Under 43 Winner Grade A+ 6-3
Not much to add here. I didn't see a play of the game and the box score and play by play indicate I was clearly on the correct side and total.
#153/#154 Georgia Tech/Boston College Over 44 (-) loser Grade F 6-4
Worst fears came to fruition. Neither coach felt comfortable passing when that is where the offensive success was driven. Interesting in that if either coach had pushed the passing a little more, it would have opened up the run game. Thought BC did the best job, by far, of any team defending the option this weekend. They dominated the GT front. GT skill runners also appeared slow at the edge ... or bc is fast. Anyway, this was a bad bet.
#139/#140 Rice/WKU Under 63 Winner Grade C 7-4
Nothing to add here. WKU is going to be more pass dependent this year though. Also note that Rice DL played the run well but did not generate pass rush. Their defensive backs take bad angles and either over estimate their own speed or underestimate the speed of the opponent. How many times can the guy be three yards beyond you? Amazing plays made by offensive players in that game. Still went under though it could easily have gone over with a dropped TD pass and then interception in the end zone on the same drive late.
#165/#166 Missouri/WVU Under 50.5 (+) Winner Grade B+ 8-4
Already discussed
#171 South Alabama +32 (blurb post #83) Winner A 9-4
Where was my ml bet? I didn't see much of it. So don't want to comment until I have gone through the play by play
#171/#172 South Alabama/Miss State Under 57 Winner Grade A 10-4
See above
#173/#174 Texas State/Ohio Under 58 loser Grade C 10-5
Already discussed
#183 Clemson -7 Loser Grade C 10-6
#183/#184 Clemson/Auburn over 59 (-) Loser Grade F 10-7
6+3 = 9. 6+2 = 8. I am no longer am impressed with Scrutes college education. Incidentally, does anyone know of a game where a team lost because while leading by less than 7, they had an attempted fg blocked and returned for a TD. I have seen it in a tied game at least once (gt -fsu) but I don't recall having seen it EVER with the leading team losing that way. Someone correct me if I am wrong. What I have seen .. many, many, many times is a team go 90 yards in less than a minute. I hate to see that rewarded, much like i hated Paul Johnson being rewarded for his idiotic FG attempt decision in Dublin. Anyway, yardage differential says clemson the right side but it doesn't matter for that game. Almost don't want to give it a grade because the result was win but not cover no matter what happened on the field. Total was maybe the worst total bet I made this week.
#191/#192 Rutgers/Washington Under 55 Loser Grade B 10-8
Only 38 first downs combined and just 684 yards of offense. Unfortunately, there was a punt return for a td, a kickoff return for a td and interception return to the 4 yard line which resulted in a td the next play. Hard to grade this game because washington was ahead so much, so early.
#195/#19 UNC/UGA over 54.5 (blurb post #81) Winner D+ 11-8
Coin flip. Thought UNC should have run more since that is where uga was weak and since that was where they were having success. With that said, with no personal interest for either side in the game emotionally or financially, I thought UNC got the short end of the officiating stick. benfited from a safety and a kick return TD ... i dunno ... yardage sort of says under was better but i know there are a lot of hidden yards taken back from penalty.
#197/#198 Houston/Oklahoma Under 68 (+) winner Grade B 12-8
Yardage indicates under was the side. A few big plays as expected including the returned fg for a td.
Fun tidbit .. guess whose bets were negatively impacted by both the houston fg return td and the iron bowl fg return td
#201/#202 USC/Alabama Under 54 (+) Loser Grade B- 12-9
I think this game largely played out as I expected but even so, not sure I would back it again. The last few minutes of the first half just completely demoralized USC and they quit like west coast softy teams often do. Bama oline wore them out, kiffin kept the gas on as we knew they would. Game was sitting 20 at halftime with a 21.5 2h total .. so losing took some doing. sick.
#203 Boise State -20 Winner Grade A 13-9
Total domination.
#205/#206 BYU/Arizona Under 62.5 Winner Grade A 14-9
Angle here was new pace of BYU and that seemed to pan out. Only 743 yards. Just avoid overtime and cash.
#137 Tulane 17.5 Winner Grade A+ 15-9
Already covered
#291/#292 California/Hawaii Under 67 Loser, Grade F+ 15-10
barnum and bailey tackle better than these two teams. discussed outcome already in the thread
NDSU/Charleston Southern under 49 Winner Grade A 15-11
already discussed
Ohio 2h -9.5 -11 loser grade C- 15-12
see above texas st and total. I am still in shock at Ohio's defense. Did they hire scooter mcdougle as defensive coordinator?
nw -4 loser grade C- 15-13
I haven't had a chance to see the last play up close yet to see if it was called correctly at the goal line. QB fumbled going in for the game winning and bet covering score. With that said, I saw 80% of the plays in that game and thought Wmich looked like the better team. Stats from the box score bear that out as well. Wmich is a very backable mac squad. Bad bet though I don't know how it could be that bad given my known information as the line basically said they were even in power rating. Just no way I could make that case prior to the game.
TAMU/UCLA Loser Grade B- 15-14
Obviously this was a horrible beat but my B grade might be generous too. Thought there were missed opportunities in the first half for more points but teams settled for FG's. Yardage seems about right for the number ... so the bet appeared to be a coin flip but the way it lost was just brutal.
fun tidbit - Tamu named a football field after me. ok not really
On NW, fumble was definitely the correct call, the controversy was whether the ball went through the endzone or if the WM player had "saved" it in bounds (which was inexplicable anyway) leading to a NW recovery. There was a holding call on the play anyway so the two possible outcomes were turnover or a 1st and goal from around the 15.
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
No. We will agree to disagree. Either way, you have to convert one somewhere but not only do I prefer the more hopeful approach of waiting, I suspect the later the game, the more tired the defense and the more likely you are to convert.
But I suppose it isn't THAT horrible compared to other decisions we see on a nightly basis. Just gonna agree to disagree on that one.
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
Mad props to Swoopes. Interesting what Texas did. They play beuchele most of the game because he is the better QB who can make all the throws. They played pace all game and used the more experienced guy who was playing cam-style battering ram offense late when the D was tired and he was relatively fresh. Worked.
Rutgers -4
MTSU -3.5
Baylor -30
Asu -18
Illinois 3.5
Ecu 4.5
Sdsu -10 (niu the gift that keeps giving)
Kentucky -18.5
unlv 13
Rutgers -4
MTSU -3.5
Baylor -30
Asu -18
Illinois 3.5
Ecu 4.5
Sdsu -10 (niu the gift that keeps giving)
Kentucky -18.5
unlv 13
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Jimmydafreak
Pretty much a regular
Cosign. I'm a huge Charlie Strong fan, and that has made me a Longhorn fan.
bones
We Must Protect Our Democracy
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