time to post my bowl season so far

Iowa was a horrible play. Really, that game and UNC were the only two investments I feel had little shot at winning after watching the game. I wonder what a round robin of ten pt teasers of all the bowl games would have brought in for me,,, the answer is a lot of money though I am not a person who believes in teasing totals I guess.

Souring a bit on ECU.....
 
Incidentally the under in the Houston game should have come in easily and the side should have lost easily .... I went from taking what I thought was a pretty sour beat to being on the right side of arguably the best come from behind win in bowl history.

mrob why gators?
 
I'm a defensive guy and I like the gators pass D to at least control Carden and ugly this game up. No Breon Allen in the run game= 1 less worry. Having said that I hate laying points with that putrid Florida offense. This bowl season I've been either dead nuts right on or dead wrong
 
I was on houston and shut it off and won and wished I shut off Baylor lol. Bowls are different animals
 
Even if I drop the last four investments it will be another epic bowl season. As crazy as it all is, I managed to get as many good breaks as bad ones and really.. i feel like when my breaks are even that i am going to do pretty good. SemiSmodod.

mrob .. I am concerned because of how badly i feel these smaller conference teams have played against the power 5 other than Cincinnati. I thought Houston played a bad game, thought the ville played a bad game, thought Colorado st played a bad game, and thought latech played a bad game and i am pretty sure the boxscore would show they did. So the bearcats dominating vt until their qb was hurt was probably the only game where the smaller conference team overachieved or competed at their best.

One reason I soured on Iowa as the game approached was that i felt that the extra practices would really help Tennessee. Normally, I would have said the same thing about Florida but there has been so much transition going on there that I have to wonder if they will be fully prepped. Durkin ( prolly spelling his name wrong ) wont be back and has to coach the game. They are playing ECU. Just seems hard to maintain interest. Meanwhile, ECU gets another shot at an SEC team after outplaying south Carolina in defeat earlier in the year. They get to play Florida. They should be pumped up to play. And ... I think they actually have a bitter sip of tea in their mouth from the UCF hail mary pass that stole their conference championship. It just looks on paper like a dramatic motivational edge.

Florida is 94th in offense and is much worse when they play a team with a defensive pulse. They have now played nine games in a row without reaching 450 yards. Meanwhile ECU allowed over 450 yards in just one game. So safe to say around 400 yards would be about all we could expect from Florida on a good day and it is more likely to be in the 345 yard area.

So when I look at that game ... to cover the 7 .... you have to think Florida just shuts them down completely in the pass game and that seems like such a tall task without motivation even for their good secondary. I can see it happening if they are ready ... and of course there is the fear of the big play defensively with interceptions and sacks but ECU is steady as she goes in my mind. They can make plays offensively. They are competent.

Special teams is major concern of course ... florida could easily take on back all the way on them in that game.

So while I fear they are outclassed ... the other stuff lines up decently .. ...

seems the future is the bigger fish to fry than ecu is .... at least enough to keep it close and i can think of worse qb and wr combos to rely on for a backdoor if needed than Carden and Hardy
 
Ya i know it is a little funny to do the pat yourself on the back thing but i am pretty hard on myself most of the year and it wasn't a fabulous regular season so I figured what the hell ,... if i can't give myself a pat on the back when it goes well then I can't enjoy it anymore. Is kind of Yag though.
 
it's not Yag...well deserved...I know you put a lot of time and effort into it. I appreciate it as many others do also I'm sure.
 
Glad I could help with the Alamo Bowl one, amigo. LOL. Great bowl season, as usual, and best of luck the rest of the way. Happy New Year 2015!
 
Thank you Clown...last nite's game was a BIG winner for me (and I took the over and Wash in 2h)

Very much appreciate everything
 
gators were fortunate imo...I think you were right about that game. You can cap a game perfectly and lose on one play
 
[TABLE="class: mod-data"]
<tbody>[TR="class: team-color-strip"]
[TH="align: left"][/TH]
[TH="align: left"]
ECU[/TH]
[TH="align: left"]
FLA[/TH]
[/TR]
[TR="class: odd"]
[TD="class: bi, align: left"]1st Downs[/TD]
[TD]32[/TD]
[TD]14[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: even"]
[TD="align: left"]3rd down efficiency
[/TD]
[TD]8-20[/TD]
[TD]7-17[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: even"]
[TD="align: left"]4th down efficiency
[/TD]
[TD]0-2[/TD]
[TD]0-1[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: odd"]
[TD="class: bi, align: left"]Total Yards[/TD]
[TD]536[/TD]
[TD]340[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: odd"]
[TD="class: bi, align: left"]Passing[/TD]
[TD]427[/TD]
[TD]171[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: even"]
[TD="align: left"]Comp-Att
[/TD]
[TD]34-68[/TD]
[TD]13-28[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: even"]
[TD="align: left"]Yards per pass
[/TD]
[TD]6.3[/TD]
[TD]6.1[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: odd"]
[TD="class: bi, align: left"]Rushing[/TD]
[TD]109[/TD]
[TD]169[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: even"]
[TD="align: left"]Rushing Attempts
[/TD]
[TD]33[/TD]
[TD]43[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: even"]
[TD="align: left"]Yards per rush
[/TD]
[TD]3.3[/TD]
[TD]3.9[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: odd"]
[TD="class: bi, align: left"]Penalties[/TD]
[TD]5-35[/TD]
[TD]6-40[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: odd"]
[TD="class: bi, align: left"]Turnovers[/TD]
[TD]3[/TD]
[TD]3[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: even"]
[TD="align: left"]Fumbles lost
[/TD]
[TD]1[/TD]
[TD]2[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: even"]
[TD="align: left"]Interceptions thrown
[/TD]
[TD]2[/TD]
[TD]1[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: odd"]
[TD="class: bi, align: left"]Possession[/TD]
[TD]32:23[/TD]
[TD]27:37[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]
 
To be fair ... Turnovers, special teams and sacks were the concern with the bet going in, but that was a bit ridiculous
 
clowncar said:
To be fair ... Turnovers, special teams and sacks were the concern with the bet going in, but that was a bit ridiculous
Click to expand...


yep, the wrong team won for sure...every break went in favor of the gators. What an awful offense UF has
 
clowncar said:
Normally that boxscore is a 16-20 pt win for the team that lost today by 8
Click to expand...
Unreal I didn't really see the game except the very end and had no idea that box score was so lopsided in ECU favor. Very tough beat there, and Florida offense really is pitiful
 
haha gar.

Todays game appears to be one of the bigger mismatches of the bowl season. Toledo with the better offense, better defense, tougher schedule, match up well defensively against what Arkansas State likes to do(run) with the 17th ranked rushing defense that has given up just 3.62 yards per carry, and take their good rushing attacj (also ranked 17) against the 93rd best rush defense of Arkansas State. On paper this game should not be very close
 
Grading the losses

Nevada 2h -2.5 -- Trailing at the half and I thought they left points behind in the first half. Defense had been playing well. Thought it would be a rare game where Fajardo was bad both halves and the Nevada team as a whole had been good late in games all year. Their offense just sputtered the entire 2h and this was the wrong side.


WKU -3.5 -- This was the game that ended my bowl streak and was one of the five toughest beats I have ever had. To be fair, I had the Houston Cougars which was probably the luckiest win I ever had too. It is really hard for me yo be super angry with wku since they came through with a huge moneyline score for me a few weeks prior against Marshall. Pretty sure wku was the correct side.

UNC -3 -- I had extra on this game having watched a lot of both teams throughout the year. I really felt that UNC had turned a corner and thought Rutgers was better early than late. I thought the game would come down to the better offense winning and I really like Fedora play calling as a general rule. I saw little over the course of the season to tell me that UNC could be stopped by the knights. I liked some motivation angles with the rivalry loss heading into this one as well. Rutgers controlled the line of scrimmage all night long until the backups were in late. They won special teams, were more motivated, had better qb play, better playcalling, beat unc at the LOS and were just the all around superior team. UNC looked so flat in this game... and so while it was evident very quickly to me that the game was Rutgers and that Williams was going to have a long night, I wonder what happens if they had both showed up. Wrong side and arguably my worst pick of the bowl season (nice to have extra on that ).

UCF -2 -- This was one of only a couple of games I didn't watch much of. I, in fact, had a date that night. Yes, old people date. I did go through the boxscore and play by play. NCSU had over a hundred more yards of offense and 5 more first downs. They controlled the game throughout. The bet was a backing of the UCF defense and a bit of nonbelief in the ncstate football team. Brissett played well and UCF had trouble getting him down or contained when they got pressure. I knew ucf was overrated, felt their defense was overrated but thought both were good enough to handle the pack. Bad play and by the end of bowl season, I realized this year was one where there was a wider gap between power 5 conference levels and smaller conference ones. wrong side.

Cin -3 and over 50 -- I actually really like how I had this game capped. I felt a healthy Kiel could have success on VT and that it would be up to Brewer and the hokies offense to keep up. While not a huge fan of the bearcat defense, I thought the hokies offense was fairly inept most of the year (though their stats weren't as bad as you or I probably thought they were) and if the game was close late I get Tuberville and Kiel and the other side of the counter is left with Beamer and Brewer. It ended up taking a lot to not win both investments. Cinci lit them up the entire first half and little to show for it and Gunner got rocked on a sack early third qtr that not only led to a vt fumble return td but knocked the best player on the field, a future nfl star if he can figure out how to not be hurt every week, out of the game. With normal backup Munchie already out hurt they had to go to third stringer. Even with the third stringer playing almost the entire 2h, the bearcats had 155 more yards of offense than VT. I managed a push on the total thanks to some lucky fg kicking by the vt kicker and bearcat turnovers that directly led to vt points but the impetus for the side and total was cin moving the ball on vt and they certainly did that ... to the tune of 489 yards .... and dare I say they might have had 600 if gunner is playing both halves? Good bets here.

asu/duke under 65.5 -- I will just post the box score. This game angered me quite a bit as it was right after the bad luck cin game. Suffice it to say the amount of pts was ridiculous given yardage. 4th down conversions and special teams led to the disaster as did amazing fg kicking.
22213rd down efficiency
4-1310-204th down efficiency
2-44-4Total Yards392400Passing240235Comp-Att
24-3417-33Yards per pass
7.17.1Rushing152165Rushing Attempts
3544Yards per rush
4.33.8Penalties2-104-35Turnovers02Fumbles lost
01Interceptions thrown
01Possession24:2934:27


How did they get to 67 again?

Scary/miami over 61 -- I got a lot wrong here ... namely pace of play and my expectation of playcalling. I felt both coaches failed to attack the weaknesses of the opposing defenses with weapons to do so. In Spurriers defense Thompson was playing so bad on so many different levels, it was hard to trust him with the football. This never had a shot and when I recapped the game afterwards, there were a couple red flags that might have shown this outcome coming.

psu/bc under -- wrong side. confusing that it was so but i also had an instinct that it might be the case. i went with the raw data but bet it small because of what my gut was telling me. Math > Gut for me generally but not here.

usc -7 -- didnt watch it, didnt review it

oklahoma -3.5 -- whoops.

i will get to the rest later. have to get to work
 
Really like this Championship game.

It is unreal how hard it is too tackle Cardale. I note the lack of "public" respect for tOSU, while enamored with the well deserved Heisman winner. Buckeyes might win it for the next three years. I cant back Helfrich in any chess match verse this grandmaster.

Books dont usually lose these type games unless something crazy happens like Colt MCCoy being knocked out first series going in for score. . .
 
Last edited:
Great job, clown/kyle, checked this thread all bowl season long.
 
On point last night man
Toledo and over with ease
Outclassed arky state for sure
 
:cheers3:

Great bowl season Kyle, GL in tha championship game. Maybe I can talk u into investing in tha FCS championship also ;)
 
3 Team Ten Pt Teaser

Illinois State 16.5
Illinois State/NDSU Under 64
Ohio State 15.5

generally not a fan of teasing totals for obvious reasons (that it is generally bad business) but I like the total anyway. I don't cap this fcs crap much but gave it a go and most of my thoughts on ndsu being held to low twenties seem to coincide with the way 6 or 7 winning fcs people I know are seeing things. Didn't get Bull's take on the game, which I would have liked. Should probably be ripped for teasing a total.... but it will win.
 
Canes1 said:
Let's get OSU to the window. Still like the over with the Duck suspensions?
Click to expand...

not as much but I still like Oregon to be able to run well and let's face it, a lot of their offense is pace related. QB is good and routes are super, super simple that the ducks run so less concerned about timing than I would be for other offenses. But ya .... I don't like it as much. Once again someone else's weed use has a negative impact on me.
 
I'm on the over, torn on the game itself, I guess I should be surprised if Oregon covers but just think this game could go in a million directions
 
I'm still kind of torn on this one as well. With Meyer's record as a dog, I really can't see myself going against him, and OSU and Oregon are extremely evenly matched. Typically, with how the stats hash out and with the advantages both teams have over the opposing defenses, I would take the points, and Meyer's history would solidify that, but here are my problems with OSU:

1. I think there is a good chance that OSU moves the ball and settles for FGs, while Oregon is punching in TDs. I don't really have any hard evidence that I can point to to support that, it's just a feeling I have, and not getting 7 hurts in that scenario.

2. I'm afraid that OSU has already captured their Great White Whale. I think that the ultimate challenge for Ohio State in their minds was to finally beat an elite, name SEC team in their backyard with all the marbles on the table. They did that. OSU slayed their dragon, and I don't think Oregon has yet. I think it's asking a lot for OSU to come down from the high of finally getting the SEC Mouse off their backs and then go ahead the next week and beat an even tougher opponent. If Meyer can pull this one off, there would be no doubting his place as the premier coach in CFB in my opinion.
 
hate this game from a gambling perspective, hope over hits. I dabbled at 73.5

Interesting to me is that no on is giving Helfich any credit and I think he's pretty good, other than that, I lean Ohio but not enough to bet
 
I'll just put this here, little clown karma. Dude can sing ...


[video=youtube_share;HYMn4s4nuto]http://youtu.be/HYMn4s4nuto[/video]
 
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