time to post my bowl season so far

clowncar said:
Reasons for asu/duke under

1. Sometimes things happen that defy logic or are short term anomaly's. I think one of those things is point generation by both ASU and Duke. To my point ...

Duke is 44th in the nation in scoring output while being 69th in total offense, and 80th in yards per play offensively. In short, they have luckboxed points all year.
ASU is 19th in the nation in scoring output while being 34th in total offense, and 50th in yards per play offensively. In short, they have luckboxed points all year.
So for me to believe they both reach their average scoring output(all other things being equal), I have to believe that both teams produce points beyond their yardage
2. Misconception about pace -- Most think both of these teams are fast paced and Duke is relatively fast paced but ASU is only slightly above average in pace.
3. Recency --
ASU total yards the last 7 games: 356, 285, 444, 412, 367, 330, 380
Duke total yards the last 8 games: 437, 264, 373, 334, 438, 259, 326, 378, 439

Think about that for a second. We have a game totaled in the midsixties where in the last 15 combined games played by the two offenses neither team hit 450 yards.

4. So it must be the defenses? Duke is 42nd in yards per play against and ASU is 76th ... if you adjust for the ASU schedule vs that of Duke, you would have the two teams very close together and could possibly even rank ASU's defense higher in this category than Duke. But however you slice it, they aren't the type of defenses that necessarily lend themselves to getting trucked. Or to put it another way, the total in the midsixties cannot really be accounted for in the defenses.
5. the underdogs punter -- I will let you in on one of the tiny things I look at when betting sides and totals and that is the hidden yardage and pts. I don't think people look at fg kicking or punting enough. For punters and totals, the primary player to look at is the underdogs punter. With Duke we have Will Monday who is one of the better punters in the country. Unfortunately both kickers have been good.

I can't find where they get this number other than total pts scored by the two teams or perception concerning the two teams. The numbers point to a much lower scoring game than this. I will not raise my arms into the air and say "well, I don't know how they do it but these teams just score pts" and hope they both do. I think something has to give to keep both teams from generating undeserved pts and you usually need both teams to produce to go over a total of this size. Meanwhile, the offenses are competent enough to get first downs and score which is often good for the under in the sense of a few first downs before the punt or fg attempt. I want to see this thing hit 70 pts ... cause I don't see it
Click to expand...


Someone with deep pockets just read this and steamed this puppy waaaaaayyyy down. My guy is giving me 67,and its 63.5/64. Lovely read!
 
clowncar said:
wheels fell off the wagon
Click to expand...

ur tha man VK,
hell, all we can do is capp the games given the info available. if we could get in these young players heads it would make a big difference

this is always the best thread filled with good info and a very knowledgeable capper

BOL down the stretch my friend :shake:
 
clowncar said:
ADD

Cincinnati/VT over 50
Click to expand...

All the facts you use to cap are on target in a wide range of games, but when its time to cap Bowls there is a big need to dissect more.

In college - especially injuries - have a huge affect on stats. We don't have the resources or time to go back and find out why each team did what it did. We also don't log the true betting volumes that have occurred with books that tell them how many gamblers are staying on a team in different situations during the year. Those factors are known only by the takers of bets, not the makers of bets.

Totals are one bet that follows the crowd. Meaning that each team has a certain number of over and under outcomes. The over/under line, is indicative of that pattern. I personally hate totals because they are typically wrong by one score or more. ONCE THE GAME GOES OVER YOUVE LOST IF YOUR BET UNDER.

In sides you are always in it even when trailing by 17 getting more than 4 points. College and pro are both known for back door crushes.

Most of what Im saying here is well known and won't really make sense for us all when capping totals, but one thing that most capping styles lack is depth in capping.

We all think we've got enough to find value. Its the lack of knowing what is enough by any of us that counts. Where and when is it enough info to decide on a play?

GO to my Bowl Thread to see MY capping secrets to games ,ike this. I don't want to shit up Clowns thread. Its a full capping angle to winning games in Bowl and NFL Playoffs.

 
They had 489 yards while playing most of the second half without gunner kiel. The bet you quoted, along with Cincinnati were the correct bets .... I would certainly take Cincinnati again tomorrow with the new information of the half of football they played with Gunner in the game along with the information prior to that, lol. I also feel good about the under bet in the duke game. Duke had 400 yards of offense and ASU had 392 yards of offense. That isn't near what you need to score that many points. Duke was 4-4 on fourth down conversions all of which were on TD drives, including a pass from their punter and a pass from their wide receiver. ASU also converted two first downs on fourth down on TD drives, there were also what amounted to two TDs via special teams with the crowder kick return before half and the late kickoff return to the four yard line for asu and the fg kickers were a combined 4 for 4 with three of them being over 38 yards in distance. It took an act of god to lose that bet.

As for the South Carolina game that was a coin flip as far as the side was concerned. A fluke play to Cooper and some key turnovers got the cocks the win. The total was capped poorly and quite frankly it was capped poorly because I overrated the two coaches ability to attack what they should attack. Thompson had a particularly bad game as well.

I guess the bc psu game was poorly capped. It was odd to me in once sense and not so odd to me in another. I had a lot of preconceived feelings about that game and that it would somehow find its way over. I repeatedly told everyone I cap with prior to the game that I felt it was going to overtime. But I cap by the numbers and that was a bet I have to make... I tempered it by betting it small. I was shocked that all bc had to do was stop the pass and they knew that ahead of time and couldn't and I was shocked that all psu had to do was stop the run (which is the only thing they do well as a team) and they couldn't. But what happened, did happen and I thought even at 7-7 halftime that I had made a bad investment there.

I didn't see a play of the usc game. I went out. hard to know from the boxscore whether it was the right side or not. I saw that they hardly picked up a yard in the fourth qtr and I saw Nebraska actually outgained them. I also saw in the play by play that Nebraska didn't kick a fg on fourth and two in the rz and scored a td and didn't attempt a fg from mid forties range when down three. both decisions hurt the bet.
 
ADD
2h Under 24 ou/Clemson

knight doesn't have it, at a certain point Clemson starts using clock and quite frankly they haven't looked great on offense either... nice play by the wr early to burn three defenders and the rest has largely been field position. Pace seems to bother OU defense but that only comes into play if Clemson remains at pace and they likely slow at some point with such a good defense they can fall back on.
 
Agree w/ Texas....As we have already experienced this year(and in years past) some teams show up and some don't//IE rutgers and clemson
I think Charlie Strong's team shows up.
 
[TABLE="class: mod-data"]
<tbody>[TR="class: team-color-strip"]
[TH="align: left"][/TH]
[TH="align: left"]
ARK[/TH]
[TH="align: left"]
TEX[/TH]
[/TR]
[TR="class: odd"]
[TD="class: bi, align: left"]1st Downs[/TD]
[TD]20[/TD]
[TD]7[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: even"]
[TD="align: left"]3rd down efficiency
[/TD]
[TD]9-17[/TD]
[TD]3-11[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: even"]
[TD="align: left"]4th down efficiency
[/TD]
[TD]1-1[/TD]
[TD]0-0[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: odd"]
[TD="class: bi, align: left"]Total Yards[/TD]
[TD]351[/TD]
[TD]59[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: odd"]
[TD="class: bi, align: left"]Passing[/TD]
[TD]160[/TD]
[TD]57[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: even"]
[TD="align: left"]Comp-Att
[/TD]
[TD]12-23[/TD]
[TD]13-25[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: even"]
[TD="align: left"]Yards per pass
[/TD]
[TD]7.0[/TD]
[TD]2.3[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: odd"]
[TD="class: bi, align: left"]Rushing[/TD]
[TD]191[/TD]
[TD]2[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: even"]
[TD="align: left"]Rushing Attempts
[/TD]
[TD]50[/TD]
[TD]18[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: even"]
[TD="align: left"]Yards per rush
[/TD]
[TD]3.8[/TD]
[TD]0.1[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: odd"]
[TD="class: bi, align: left"]Penalties[/TD]
[TD]2-15[/TD]
[TD]5-34[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: odd"]
[TD="class: bi, align: left"]Turnovers[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]2[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: even"]
[TD="align: left"]Fumbles lost
[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]1[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: even"]
[TD="align: left"]Interceptions thrown
[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]1[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: odd"]
[TD="class: bi, align: left"]Possession[/TD]
[TD]41:10[/TD]
[TD]18:50[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]
 
If Strong can't survive then Texas is officially uncoachable, 3 years minimum or enjoy a revolving door of suck for years to come
 
The most impressive thing is that Texas scored an offensive td on a 44 yard drive and somehow had 7 first downs on 59 yards. 41-19 time of possession
 
kjohnson109 said:
If Strong can't survive then Texas is officially uncoachable, 3 years minimum or enjoy a revolving door of suck for years to come
Click to expand...

Tend to agree and overall I personally like what Strong has done in year one. But there is a contingent against him already, and this is a lot of ammo against him. Arguably the most embarrassing game in school history on a lot of levels.... and some of it appeared to be complete lack of preparation. The offensive woes at this school goes well beyond the qb position too. Sure Swoopes sucks ... but I see teams with a quarter of the talent make plays on offense and Texas just looks out of sync and without identity every single time I watch them snap footballs..... for years now ... anyway, he was a little bit of a reach hire for this job and while I like it, there are a good many who don't.
 
Ramping up unwarranted heat is exactly what good coaches are looking for in a prospective program to coach, Strong was always going to have critics in dem parts, so I would take those with a grain of salt if I was part of the hiring process and had one drop of confidence in my decision making

Any judgment until year 3 means you've wasted your time. When shit sucks, it has to suck for a few years no matter who you are. Your job is to make sure it doesn't suck for decades.
 
Not that they are the same coach or the programs are the same, but Saban went 6-6 in reg season at Alabama including a home loss to La Monroe and the team's 6th straight loss to Auburn. Had a great recruiting class, which it looks like Texas will have, and we never looked back. Patience is key. With all due respect to Baylor and TCU, there's only one truly elite big 12 program in the state. If Strong stays, no doubt he has them winning the conference within 3 years. He may need to adjust his offensive staff or philosophies, but that's not that big a deal IMO
 
clowncar said:
Tend to agree and overall I personally like what Strong has done in year one. But there is a contingent against him already, and this is a lot of ammo against him. Arguably the most embarrassing game in school history on a lot of levels.... and some of it appeared to be complete lack of preparation. The offensive woes at this school goes well beyond the qb position too. Sure Swoopes sucks ... but I see teams with a quarter of the talent make plays on offense and Texas just looks out of sync and without identity every single time I watch them snap footballs..... for years now ... anyway, he was a little bit of a reach hire for this job and while I like it, there are a good many who don't.
Click to expand...

A suck performance, but not even close to the most embarrassing loss in school history. Brown got disemboweled 4 times by OU, losing each by half a hundred. We were dead and gone in each of those games in the first quarter, they were scraping our players off the floor of the Cotton Bowl by halftime. The only rival we have somehow raped us 4 times in our single biggest game of the year. Unfathomable, and each of those nightmares was its own Black Saturday. It's an albatross Brown will always wear around his neck, the 4 worst losses in program history under his watch.

That shit storm last night was exactly what it was and Strong deserves to be pounded for it. But no one is going to completely pass judgement on him until he's able to bring in his guys and had sufficient time to right the ship. But part of righting that ship better be evaluating his OC. It will be inexcusable if that coaching position isn't evaluated seriously.
 
I was at a few of those RRS blowout losses, including the 5 td performance or whatever it was from that midget running back they had. 59 yards is just an animal that is different in my opinion. Allowing a big score or being out schemed on a given day for a defense is one thing. To not be able to execute to the tune of 59 yards is just not fathomable to me, especially in modern football. Take out the one scoring drive of 44 yards.... that means in all the other drives combined they had 15 yards. 15. No seriously ... 15. I am mad because I probably just need 150 yards of offense in that game to cover the spread as Texas defended them well. Perfect coverage on the long bomb (small shove for offensive pi but I probably don't throw the flag either) but just a nice throw and with his momentum stopped he couldn't make a play on the ball itself. The other 17 is certainly acceptable. Hell the 24 total is. The defense was out there 41 minutes... very frustrating as a fan. Tip of the cap to the Texas defense though. They fought hard and did a great job defending Arkansas most of the evening.
 
clowncar said:
Just marvel at that box score awhile. It will be interesting to see if Strong survives this.
Click to expand...

I wasn't sold on the Strong hire, and am still not. Take out the last 2 years with Bridgewater and he is a .500 coach. We know talent is spread thin in college, so a dominant player can make a coach look good. Tom O'Brien had 2 players.

I want to see a guy do well without a Bridgewater type player before giving him a big job. Strong hasn't done that
 
Alan Tongue said:
I wasn't sold on the Strong hire, and am still not. Take out the last 2 years with Bridgewater and he is a .500 coach. We know talent is spread thin in college, so a dominant player can make a coach look good. Tom O'Brien had 2 players.

I want to see a guy do well without a Bridgewater type player before giving him a big job. Strong hasn't done that
Click to expand...


I am sold on him not because of Teddy but because of how hard the other kids played for him, I am sold on him because I thought the program needed a coach willing to go in and force guys to work hard on and off the field and I admit that i am not sold on him as far as modern offensive football. We have coffers loaded with cash because Texas Alumni make great money and live in a state that is pro making money. We can get good offensive coordinators to come here and coach talent. We made some misses at the qb position and it really hurt, especially when we you look at the players who wanted to play at Texas and we let them go. And no I am not talking about Jameis because he wouldn't be in a Texas uniform right now .. he would be kicked off the team... there are others. I am with KJ ... give him time to get his program going and then throw him under the bus after it is moving ... right now he is still trying to fix what was left behind him and there are growing pains
 
Mark Richt at Georgia with a first year starting QB

Greene 01 (8-4),
Shockley 05 (10-3),
Tereshinski/Stafford 06 (9-4).
Cox 09 (8-5),
Murray 10 (6-7)
Mason 14 (9-3)

Record 50-26

Record with a returning QB

Greene 02 (13-1),
Greene 03 (11-3),
Greene 04 (10-3),
Stafford 07 (11-2),
Stafford 08 (10-3),
Murray 11 (10-4)
Murray 12 (12-2)
Murray 13 (8-5)

Record 55-23.

Only 1 DD win season with a new starter. Sitting at 9-3 so far this season. But looking goo for DD wins next, even with Gurley leaving
 
I didn't like the kid jawwing back at the coach when Strong corrected him on the sideline.
That's not needed , as a player or a Texan.
 
TheGarfather said:
We over-rated LSU's defense. Doesn't matter which QB he plays, the OL is dominating.
Click to expand...

LSU was a negative team against bowlers. There was nothing overrated about them. Stats proved it all season. They are not as good as many think. The whole SEC is diluted and there is more to come I believe.
 
Last edited by a moderator:
The Capping Genius said:
LSU was a negative team against bowlers. There was nothing overrated about them. Stats proved it all season. They are not as good as many think. The whole SEC is diluted and there is more to come I believe.
Click to expand...

Genius, you're on a different mental plane than me, but I'm having a hard time with this one.
 
What game are they watching? TCU is controlling every aspect of the game. Ole Miss has offensive linemen dropping like flies and you have to wonder if the Rebels just want to go home and cry right about now. TCU playing with a swagger and seem to want to let Condi and company know they made a bad mistake.
 
clowncar said:
Add

2h Under 24.5

Don't see Ole Miss Scoring a TD and TCU quits trying after awhile.
Click to expand...
Great job dumping the game over and on your TCU 2H side play. Ole Piss no. 1 in def points per play against and come up with that effort. These bowl games are so damn tricky to figure out.
 
Timh said:
Great job dumping the game over and on your TCU 2H side play. Ole Piss no. 1 in def points per play against and come up with that effort. These bowl games are so damn tricky to figure out.
Click to expand...


Yup. The thing with the 25 and 26 is that they are so hard to get to, though in college with the two pt tries and the bad extra point kicking it is more possible. With the score what it was and with me thinking TCU would keep going and with ole Miss struggling offensively and hurting at oline for the 2h, I just didn't think we get to a score where Freese goes for two.
 
Add

Oregon/FSU over 71 -- I hate to say the reasoning behind this play because I am not a fan of the guy off of the field. But on the field, Winston usually comes up big in big games. And this is a big game. Oregon should have its way with the FSU defense and The ducks have been giving up a lot of passing yards though the 6.6 ypa are not bad in a passing league when you are leading every game. My instinct originally from watching both teams this year is that the Ducks are the superior team but some of that was perception of the ACC and they have played pretty well in bowl season and even late in the regular season vs the SEC. Was talking with my buddy today and he made the great point that FSU has been bored all year ... hard to be bored when they line you a dog this big when you have won a billion games in a row, including a national championship. I just think there are big plays to be made all over the field and while championship games, semifinal games, conference championship games are games I usually back unders with, The offenses are the best side of the ball on each team and each offense is exactly good at what the other team struggles defending. Nothing will be left on the table either, as i believe both teams pull out all the stops and probably start getting aggressive with playcalling and pace a little more than normal if behind over a score. I really think FSU is the team that benefits from the extra time for this game especially on their defensive side of the ball and that is probably my biggest concern .... that the extra practices have given them an added boost. I want Oregon to win but Winston vs either Bama or Tosu would be an epic TV ratings game.
 
TheGarfather said:
Not sure if you just made a stronger case for the over or FSU. Good luck whatever you decide.

Happy New year
Click to expand...


I never had an issue with thinking Oregon would score. So I was left going with Oregon or the Total Over or an Oregon Team Total. But I wasn't comfortable with laying to FSU and I also thought I could wait for a better number if I settled on it. But as gameday has approached, I find myself asking whether or not FSU can score a lot on the Ducks and came up with yes. So while I think Oregon is the better club, I don't see many defensive stops in the game and I wouldn't want to defend a backdoor from Winston either. I focused on what was the impetus for finally picking what I like there. It wasn't the numbers .. it was the Winston intangibles of the big game. Say what you want about how bad his off the field intangibles are but on the field he can flat ball.
 
clowncar said:
What game are they watching? TCU is controlling every aspect of the game. Ole Miss has offensive linemen dropping like flies and you have to wonder if the Rebels just want to go home and cry right about now. TCU playing with a swagger and seem to want to let Condi and company know they made a bad mistake.
Click to expand...

Great job capitalizing on that. And on the second half. I was off the grid so I couldn't lay it down(dammit!), you identified two of the strongest in game bets of the year there.
 
Would you believe I fell asleep in the middle of the Oregon game. Awakened to a nice score. Hope the winner of the bama v ohio state game shows up against the ducks because they look better every week I see them
 
clowncar said:
Would you believe I fell asleep in the middle of the Oregon game. Awakened to a nice score. Hope the winner of the bama v ohio state game shows up against the ducks because they look better every week I see them
Click to expand...

gosh VK, I know ur old and have to have ur beauty sleep, but in the middle of a good football game :) :)

GL
 
Br@ssknux said:
Great job capitalizing on that. And on the second half. I was off the grid so I couldn't lay it down(dammit!), you identified two of the strongest in game bets of the year there.
Click to expand...

Ya, it wasn't without risk of the polish middle
 
bloodhound said:
gosh VK, I know ur old and have to have ur beauty sleep, but in the middle of a good football game :) :)

GL
Click to expand...

I have been under the weather. I was trying to work on new years eve day and watch football and was less productive than I should have been. Then was with family from evening to midnight. From midnight until 9 AM I worked on accounting work for 9 hours without a break... not even a ten minute break. So I was really, really exhausted.
 
Why Houston and the under? Let's talk pace first. Pitt is a slow paced team that likes to hand it to their bruising back Conner. For those that haven't seen him play, he is a physical runner that is tough to bring down. Sort of reminds one of Williams from BC last year. This type of offense lends itself to a running clock unless the opposing team cannot defend the run at all and the clock is stopping on plays temporarily because the runner is making the edge and going out of bounds or because of first downs. In this case, he is a between the tackles runner. There are several reasons that I like Houston to largely contain this attack. 1. cougs are only giving up 3.54 yards per carry which puts their rush defense statistically in the area of Missouri and Ole Miss in a vacuum. Obviously they haven't played the rush offenses in the sec the way mizzou and ole miss have and the physical nature of Conner is somewhat new as well. But outside of the byu game when T Hill was healthy, Houston has really done a nice job defending the run. 2. Running the ball is a "want to" thing. In this game, the Pitt coach deserted the team, they are playing in an obscure bowl, against Houston with their OC acting as head coach. Very hard to be pumped to go out and be physically dominating. 3. The definition of stopping the run. Pitt runs a ton, conner will break some tackles and have a couple chunk plays ... when I am defining stopping the run .. I mean holding them to 230 yards or so .... because that is pitts offense. 4. I like that the DC is HC for Houston on two levels ... it makes for a slower paced game almost every time and it also lends itself to less aggression with fourth down attempts, field position and general risk.

Pitt does have a good wr but their qb play is spotty at best. If I lose to voytik lighting me up so be it.

One thing that has made me feel better about this play the closer it has gotten revolves arounf the cin/vt game. The question I had heading into that game was whether the strength of conference would be a major factor. It wasn't. In fact, the bearcats thoroughly dominated that football game until their qb got hurt. So I don't fear a wide talent gap. Now, I put in this play long before that game was played but I consider that game a boost to this one.

Pitt has a decent defense too and it has ben playing well .. even in some games like duke where they gave up a ton of points it was a fluke and they held duke to limited yards. head shaver... Where I think Houston has an advantage here is with the legs of Ward. Have to go all the way back to week two against bc to find a game where pitt is dealing with a non-option qb with feet like his.

The game looks like a straight grinder to me and I think with Houston using the game as a recruiting visit according to the local rags in texas, that they are the more motivated program in this game and what the hell ... I will say what I really believe which is that Houston is the better football team and they are getting points.

Blewitt and Bullard are both average fg kickers and you would expect a miss somewhere along the way ( hopefully blewitt ) as both defenses are above average defending third downs.

I really fell in love with this game early because it is a matchup play which is in my wheelhouse from a comfort level standpoint and Houston matches up well ... of course my two biggest bets of the bowls were both matchup based with texas and unc too ...

Why does Pitt care?
 
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