time to post my bowl season so far
- Thread starter RetroVK
- Start date
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
Merry Christmas Marlo
D
dilaudid8
Guest
clown great job unreal what a great bowl season your having keep up the great work bol:badass:
Frank Costanza
Co-Inventor of the Man's Bra
Wow, excellent work! Phenomenal!
Wish I was as confident in the Horns as you are. At this point, I'm not going to question you.:cheers3:
Wish I was as confident in the Horns as you are. At this point, I'm not going to question you.:cheers3:
Timh
CTG Psychiatrist - Dr. Tim
Kyle was curious about your thoughts on NC today? I see they fired their DC Koenning after the regular season and read where they may be more aggressive on defense with Disch. Still they have just been so bad on defense I have to wonder if they can really improve that much in practices leading up to the bowl. Rutgers not good on D either but seem to at least generate some decent pass rush and are capable of getting some sacks and putting some pressure on opposing qb's. I was wondering where you see such a large edge for NC. My initial thought here was that maybe over might be the best play.
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
Well, at least they are making the change in approach, even if slight... some energy wouldn't be bad. To me the difference is in offenses. That is to say, we can sit and talk about how horrible the unc defense is and I won't argue against that but are they worse than the Rutgers defense? UNC is the second fastest paced power conference team (Baylor) and Rutgers is one of the 30 slowest paced teams. So while UNC gave up 5,948 yards this year and Rutgers gave up 5,274 it doesn't tell the story because unc defended an extra 114 plays and those extra plays are when a defense is tired as well. Knights gave up 6.47 ypp vs unc 6.40 ... I just don't see a ton of difference. Granted a similar argument could be made the opposite direction regarding the offenses. But I like the extra practices for the young talent of unc,,, I think few teams will benefit more from them than the heels and when I look at the game I weighted some recency... Rutgers 2-4 down the stretch (tough schedule) losing all four games by dd and unc did the opposite going 4-2 vs gt, at uva, at mia, vs pitt, at duke, vs ncsu .... all but uva in a bowl. In addition, I like that they didn't just play well the second half of the year but their last game was a stinker.
Timh
CTG Psychiatrist - Dr. Tim
Thanks for your thoughts. Good points on NC offense, and I do agree they are definitely better. And yes Rutgers is worse against the run. I really thought maybe NC had turned the corner but the loss to NCST really surprised me. I thought they would win that game. Maybe your right though and that stinker will provide some motivation today for them.
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
Ncstate needed for bowl eligibility. Of course, it was a rivalry game so not saying unc tanked but there were some motivational angles there.
Coverdatspred
Curious About George Costanza‘s Modeling Career
Great work so far Kyle, looks like we have agreed a bunch which has been a good thing for me! Hope we get those games later! Keep crushing it bro, happy holidays.
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
boy ... there is a lot going on here. ... part of me says there are big plays open all over the field, another part of me says the pick 6 was bologna and the 80 yard td was a blown coverage , another part of me says the illini kicker cant be worse, another part of me says the pass rush for latech will be even more effective against lunt if he comes in, another part of me says both teams refuse to run the ball with the illini often in zero back sets for entire drives ....
only thing I am confident of is that the illini got short changed by the officials that half in a major way.
only thing I am confident of is that the illini got short changed by the officials that half in a major way.
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
My worry for you is that there are two players on illini offense playing well.. dudek and otoole ... and who knows if otoole gets replaced.
wiseplayer
Pretty much a regular
Illinois offense is dirty as in, they suck. La Tech coach clearly looked frustrated with his offense. Said they'll need to spread it out to loosen the line of scrimmage. Illinois has a D3 kicker that could play a factor in Illinois going for it on 4th downs.
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
Could argue Illinois outplayed latech that half. officiating mattered imo .. without a side in the game so it isn't one of those biased looks at being screwed.
guess with latech pace, illini abandoning the run already and being behind that you can cash.
Not gonna lie ... I am confused in regards to this game right now for the 2h
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
Not sure they have incentive to do that with pace if they stop illini the first one or two possessions.
Dollaz
Egor Demin Watch Club Member
I think people point to that hold (which should have been a flag), but La Tech WRs are walking back to the huddle putting their jerseys back on as well. None had as big an effect of the pick 6, but these officials are letting them play in the defensive backfield.
I like 2H under a lot. Only way it loses is if Ill turn the ball over.
I like 2H under a lot. Only way it loses is if Ill turn the ball over.
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
agree about the kicker situation ... not sure you can trust the fg unit right now... he missed the last one by twenty yards
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
Well that one drive illini held twice obviously without calls and then they called the ridiculous one on fourth down that should never be called at any level. So hard to complain if you are illini about that one because you got away with a few calls prior I guess. But the block in the back on the pick six was right at the runner and impossible to miss as an official as was the hold on the receiver. In addition, not sure I liked that intentional grounding call ( well I liked it ) when he was being hit as he threw toward the middle of the field. I think he was trying to force that to a receiver not throw it away and was just hit as he did it ... if he was throwing that away it was his only horrid decision of the half.
bones
We Must Protect Our Democracy
exactly
captbunch18
Pretty much a regular
Thoughts on the Rutgers/UNC total rocketing up??
captbunch18
Pretty much a regular
Thanks. Just going to wait and see if a 2H play opens up
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
Well, that was ugly. How thorough was that domination?
Turnovers? check
Line of scrimmage? check
Play calling? check
Tackling? check
Energy? check
QB play? check
Throw in a failed fake, a missed chip shot and a 19 yard punt or whatever that was.
Hard to explain the half, especially Fedora.... other than just being wrong and Rutgers is the better club. UNC on paper should have had the motivational edges .. instead flatter than a ten year old ....................................pancake.
Turnovers? check
Line of scrimmage? check
Play calling? check
Tackling? check
Energy? check
QB play? check
Throw in a failed fake, a missed chip shot and a 19 yard punt or whatever that was.
Hard to explain the half, especially Fedora.... other than just being wrong and Rutgers is the better club. UNC on paper should have had the motivational edges .. instead flatter than a ten year old ....................................pancake.
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
Reasons for asu/duke under
1. Sometimes things happen that defy logic or are short term anomaly's. I think one of those things is point generation by both ASU and Duke. To my point ...
Duke is 44th in the nation in scoring output while being 69th in total offense, and 80th in yards per play offensively. In short, they have luckboxed points all year.
ASU is 19th in the nation in scoring output while being 34th in total offense, and 50th in yards per play offensively. In short, they have luckboxed points all year.
So for me to believe they both reach their average scoring output(all other things being equal), I have to believe that both teams produce points beyond their yardage
2. Misconception about pace -- Most think both of these teams are fast paced and Duke is relatively fast paced but ASU is only slightly above average in pace.
3. Recency --
ASU total yards the last 7 games: 356, 285, 444, 412, 367, 330, 380
Duke total yards the last 8 games: 437, 264, 373, 334, 438, 259, 326, 378, 439
Think about that for a second. We have a game totaled in the midsixties where in the last 15 combined games played by the two offenses neither team hit 450 yards.
4. So it must be the defenses? Duke is 42nd in yards per play against and ASU is 76th ... if you adjust for the ASU schedule vs that of Duke, you would have the two teams very close together and could possibly even rank ASU's defense higher in this category than Duke. But however you slice it, they aren't the type of defenses that necessarily lend themselves to getting trucked. Or to put it another way, the total in the midsixties cannot really be accounted for in the defenses.
5. the underdogs punter -- I will let you in on one of the tiny things I look at when betting sides and totals and that is the hidden yardage and pts. I don't think people look at fg kicking or punting enough. For punters and totals, the primary player to look at is the underdogs punter. With Duke we have Will Monday who is one of the better punters in the country. Unfortunately both kickers have been good.
I can't find where they get this number other than total pts scored by the two teams or perception concerning the two teams. The numbers point to a much lower scoring game than this. I will not raise my arms into the air and say "well, I don't know how they do it but these teams just score pts" and hope they both do. I think something has to give to keep both teams from generating undeserved pts and you usually need both teams to produce to go over a total of this size. Meanwhile, the offenses are competent enough to get first downs and score which is often good for the under in the sense of a few first downs before the punt or fg attempt. I want to see this thing hit 70 pts ... cause I don't see it
1. Sometimes things happen that defy logic or are short term anomaly's. I think one of those things is point generation by both ASU and Duke. To my point ...
Duke is 44th in the nation in scoring output while being 69th in total offense, and 80th in yards per play offensively. In short, they have luckboxed points all year.
ASU is 19th in the nation in scoring output while being 34th in total offense, and 50th in yards per play offensively. In short, they have luckboxed points all year.
So for me to believe they both reach their average scoring output(all other things being equal), I have to believe that both teams produce points beyond their yardage
2. Misconception about pace -- Most think both of these teams are fast paced and Duke is relatively fast paced but ASU is only slightly above average in pace.
3. Recency --
ASU total yards the last 7 games: 356, 285, 444, 412, 367, 330, 380
Duke total yards the last 8 games: 437, 264, 373, 334, 438, 259, 326, 378, 439
Think about that for a second. We have a game totaled in the midsixties where in the last 15 combined games played by the two offenses neither team hit 450 yards.
4. So it must be the defenses? Duke is 42nd in yards per play against and ASU is 76th ... if you adjust for the ASU schedule vs that of Duke, you would have the two teams very close together and could possibly even rank ASU's defense higher in this category than Duke. But however you slice it, they aren't the type of defenses that necessarily lend themselves to getting trucked. Or to put it another way, the total in the midsixties cannot really be accounted for in the defenses.
5. the underdogs punter -- I will let you in on one of the tiny things I look at when betting sides and totals and that is the hidden yardage and pts. I don't think people look at fg kicking or punting enough. For punters and totals, the primary player to look at is the underdogs punter. With Duke we have Will Monday who is one of the better punters in the country. Unfortunately both kickers have been good.
I can't find where they get this number other than total pts scored by the two teams or perception concerning the two teams. The numbers point to a much lower scoring game than this. I will not raise my arms into the air and say "well, I don't know how they do it but these teams just score pts" and hope they both do. I think something has to give to keep both teams from generating undeserved pts and you usually need both teams to produce to go over a total of this size. Meanwhile, the offenses are competent enough to get first downs and score which is often good for the under in the sense of a few first downs before the punt or fg attempt. I want to see this thing hit 70 pts ... cause I don't see it
tee*dub
Head of Loggerhead Turtle Society
:rofl:
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
Reasons for South Carolina and the over
1. South Carolina has the 21st rated pass offense in the country while playing against pretty good defenses in the SEC. Miami has the 46th rated passing offense while playing against acc competition. South Carolina is 94th in the nation in ypattempt against this year. They have been torched by the pass. On the bright side, they are 109th against the rush and 117th in ypc against. Miami has balance to their offense with stud rb Duke Johnson carrying it and a young and improving qb who can make plays on occasion passing the ball. He should have improved with extra practices as well. South Carolina simply hasn't shown that they can take anything away from opponents consistently. Meanwhile the Canes played a full season where they hardly played a quality passing offense. The only two they played against that are ranked higher than the cocks are FSU and Cincinnati. bearcats threw for 355 and fsu threw for 304. Recency points to South Carolina with Miami limping to the finish line after playing a good half against fsu they went on to drop their final three. If South Carolina falls behind in this game, it is hard to imagine they can't score throwing it around and have a shot at the backdoor cover. I also think that we have a coaching edge with Spurrier in this one against Golden, though I readily admit that the OBC has done a horrific job with this particular team this season. I think South Carolina scores low twenties on a bad day in this matchup and that makes the dog and over appealing. Fun fact for this game is that both teams played a combined 19 bowl opponents. wow.
1. South Carolina has the 21st rated pass offense in the country while playing against pretty good defenses in the SEC. Miami has the 46th rated passing offense while playing against acc competition. South Carolina is 94th in the nation in ypattempt against this year. They have been torched by the pass. On the bright side, they are 109th against the rush and 117th in ypc against. Miami has balance to their offense with stud rb Duke Johnson carrying it and a young and improving qb who can make plays on occasion passing the ball. He should have improved with extra practices as well. South Carolina simply hasn't shown that they can take anything away from opponents consistently. Meanwhile the Canes played a full season where they hardly played a quality passing offense. The only two they played against that are ranked higher than the cocks are FSU and Cincinnati. bearcats threw for 355 and fsu threw for 304. Recency points to South Carolina with Miami limping to the finish line after playing a good half against fsu they went on to drop their final three. If South Carolina falls behind in this game, it is hard to imagine they can't score throwing it around and have a shot at the backdoor cover. I also think that we have a coaching edge with Spurrier in this one against Golden, though I readily admit that the OBC has done a horrific job with this particular team this season. I think South Carolina scores low twenties on a bad day in this matchup and that makes the dog and over appealing. Fun fact for this game is that both teams played a combined 19 bowl opponents. wow.
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
PSU/BC under reasons
This won't take long. Penn state is 120th in the entire nation in rushing which is the worst of any team that has made it to the bowl season. The main reason for the problem is the offensive line. They don't get push, don't make holes .....
Meanwhile, the lions are 110th in passing. Why? For every reason imaginable. They give up sacks, they give up qb hurries, the qb has developed as a result of that, the wide receivers are slow and don't create separation and because their running game is so bad they are often stuck in obvious pass downs.
BC has a solid defense that is well rounded against pass and rush.
BC is a run team and have a QB who seems to make a big key run or two per game. They are 14th in rushing and will just pound the rock at you. It is fun to watch for those of us who prefer running football to five wide football ( or good football vs wussyball ). The problem is obvious ..... how did a team with the woeful offense I just describe make it to a bowl game? Defense.... most notably their rush defense which is tops in the nation and not by a little bit. They are about a quarter yard per carry better than Clemson and Alabama in ypc against. BC isn't changing who they are ..... and if they do ... penn state is 11th in the nation against the pass .. so there isn't even the incentive to change who you are.
pace - While penn state is a slower than average pace team, bc is downright slow.
It all adds up to limited points in this game. They don't total college football games in the thirties anymore because society has ruined the sport. It's hard to have unders at 40 in modern football but barring turnovers in bad spots or kick returns or god forbid the 17-17 overtime game this game rates to be really low scoring .. probably 17-13 bc.
This won't take long. Penn state is 120th in the entire nation in rushing which is the worst of any team that has made it to the bowl season. The main reason for the problem is the offensive line. They don't get push, don't make holes .....
Meanwhile, the lions are 110th in passing. Why? For every reason imaginable. They give up sacks, they give up qb hurries, the qb has developed as a result of that, the wide receivers are slow and don't create separation and because their running game is so bad they are often stuck in obvious pass downs.
BC has a solid defense that is well rounded against pass and rush.
BC is a run team and have a QB who seems to make a big key run or two per game. They are 14th in rushing and will just pound the rock at you. It is fun to watch for those of us who prefer running football to five wide football ( or good football vs wussyball ). The problem is obvious ..... how did a team with the woeful offense I just describe make it to a bowl game? Defense.... most notably their rush defense which is tops in the nation and not by a little bit. They are about a quarter yard per carry better than Clemson and Alabama in ypc against. BC isn't changing who they are ..... and if they do ... penn state is 11th in the nation against the pass .. so there isn't even the incentive to change who you are.
pace - While penn state is a slower than average pace team, bc is downright slow.
It all adds up to limited points in this game. They don't total college football games in the thirties anymore because society has ruined the sport. It's hard to have unders at 40 in modern football but barring turnovers in bad spots or kick returns or god forbid the 17-17 overtime game this game rates to be really low scoring .. probably 17-13 bc.
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
USC is a combination of about everything. QB play differential is huge. Running the football is about want to... will Nebraska really want to? Normally I would say that removing a coach as woeful, stupid, poor, and incompetent as Bo Pelini wouldn't hurt a team but the kids actually liked the guy. So I just don't see the motivation on the Nebraska side. I don't think you can make a career out of attempting to run against USC's talent in the front seven. And if Nebraska cannot do that, they can't score a ton on USC because their QB Armstrong is an atrocity. Flip to the other side and you have arguably the best pure passing qb in the sport right now with Kessler from the pocket. He has a ton of wr options to throw at the Nebraska defense who have played against a who's who of rushing teams in the bigten this year. They will have to be fired up to defend usc. USC has a solid coach at the helm while Nebraska deals with transition. One team is building confidence while the other is losing theirs. I also think USC benefits more from additional practice, I think the bowl game means more to USC as a springboard into next year, I think they match up well, I think they have more talent, I think they have the largest advantage at qb of any bowl game this year and have the advantage of a good coach on the sideline.
USC is the play in this one
USC is the play in this one
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