time to post my bowl season so far
- Thread starter RetroVK
- Start date
Br@ssknux
Pretty much a regular
Great job on these totals, and nice call on Memphis. Memphis was the better team in that one IMO, even though it took awhile. It was a great game...too bad nobody will remember that.
Looking at your card I might have to rethink some of my leans.
Totally with you on Texas though. That game is not going to be more than a FG either way. Not sure how Arky gets more than 17 in that one so I'll be on the dog as well. Also, I've been itching to fade the hell out of that Cincinnati defense all year, but almost everyone they played was anemic on offense. Thought I might get a chance in the bowl game, but who do they get matched up with??? The scattershot Michael Brewer and his band of misfits.
Looking at your card I might have to rethink some of my leans.
Totally with you on Texas though. That game is not going to be more than a FG either way. Not sure how Arky gets more than 17 in that one so I'll be on the dog as well. Also, I've been itching to fade the hell out of that Cincinnati defense all year, but almost everyone they played was anemic on offense. Thought I might get a chance in the bowl game, but who do they get matched up with??? The scattershot Michael Brewer and his band of misfits.
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
Ya i really don't understand the Bearcat line which is really bad. But the HC/QB combo advantage is humongous in that game ... and I don't even really like the bearcats coach. I suppose some time away is good for VT but they just aren't playing good football at all. VT generally in close games though. The whole game comes down to VT defending the Bearcat passing game. If they can do that, they will be able to win. I just don't think the defense will be excited enough to prepare for it and quite frankly they just haven't played many good passing attacks. cinci 7.4 ypa allowed and VT 6.5 ypa allowed. But bearcats at 7.9 ypa compared to 6.3. Even if I assume VT holds them to under 7 an attempt, they might get wiped. The other big factor hidden in those stats is the big play. Bearcats had 10 plays of 50 plus yards this year and VT had 1. Sort of a big deal if the game falls into one of those grinding type of games for VT, the only kind you would think they can compete in. Each team sports a freshman fg kicker but one has been good and one has been not so good and that is an advantage for the bearcats. One of the reasons I liked Memphis was because of Turnover margin differential compared to BYU (which didn't pan out funny enough) and while bearcats statistically rate to win that battle for the season, I would actually call that part of the game a coin flip. I just can't get beyond the QB difference and I like that Kiel has finally gotten some time to heal up as he has been battling injuries all year. VT gives a bunch of sacks and takes a bunch of sacks ... just have to hope gunner survives it. There is just something wrong with VT right now, plain and simple. While I would much rather have that VT defense late, I think one team has the better qb and has shown the want to and know how to win and the other hasn't.
HammersSpreads
Pretty much a regular
Keep it gojng Kyle. Real impressive start....much kudos.
Im the same way on the Big 10.....I think the conference is partial trash but I find myself most likely backing a few teams.
Im the same way on the Big 10.....I think the conference is partial trash but I find myself most likely backing a few teams.
:hang:
Br@ssknux
Pretty much a regular
I sympathize and acknowledge a very reasonable fear there, but although they almost never win, B10 teams haven't been all that bad ATS because they are almost always dogs in the bowls due to their tough bowl tie ins historically. Haven't checked the numbers, but I'd bet that over the last 10 years the B10 is probably better than .500 ATS in bowls. Lot of dogs this year too.
Br@ssknux
Pretty much a regular
Vintage VK analysis there!! Totally agree on the HC...I don't know how many HCs out there that I prefer Beamer to...seriously.
When I looked at this game, I have to admit that I was looking for a reason to back VT because I have so much disdain for that Cincy stop unit. They played 4 legitimately good offensive squads(5 if you want to call Andrew Hendrix a competent QB) and they gave up points and yards by the bushel. The ones who weren't legit were all pathetic, and it propped up UC's defensive numbers a bit. As bad as VT has been offensively, they are still better than most of the teams on the Cincy schedule. The teams are pretty even when it comes to straight scrimmaging matchups, but you are absolutely right, Cincy has the edge in all the intangible type areas. Although VT is #2 in sacks, Cincy's defense will have more of an edge there than VTs will because Brewer gets sacked like crazy and Kiel doesn't. Also a significant ST edge for Cincy, and they've just found a way to win all year. Still pretty torn on this one because I think VT will have some success on offense and they've been a good dog over the years, but you are probably on the right side with Cincy there. I'm gonna keep looking at that one though. Not sure why I have so much interest in that one.
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
I was feeling a bit guilty about the Memphis win after following it and getting the fourth down conversion, the huge fg in overtime etc. etc. ... but i was following that game on a gamecast and not watching. I got to watch the replay in the wee hours of the morning today and I don't feel guilty anymore. They were the right side in that game. What a weird, strange game that was.
I have a rather big lean to niu today because of recency ( Marshall sort of faded and NIU sort of got better ) but if both teams play their best ball, A Game if you will, then Marshall would annihilate them and for that reason, along with losing the good numbers, I laid off. Correct me if I am wrong but generally bowl season is fave/under early and dog/over mid to late and mixed in the majors. So I think we do start seeing some dogs bite over this week.
While NIU pass D numbers are good overall from a yardage standpoint, their ypa allowed is not all that great and if you look specifically at their games against decent pass offenses it hasn't gotten a passing grade. Meanwhile, Marshall has played against a "who's who" of bad offensive teams. NIU is one of those chameleon teams as far as pace is concerned. The other team tends to dictate it ..... when they have played slow teams the game has few plays and when they play fast teams the game has a lot of plays. Obviously with Marshall being above average in pace, I think we get enough plays for pts there. First quarter will be the telling quarter.
With the SDSU/Navy game I am backing the running clock, Rocky Long defending the option, and not expecting too many huge plays in the game. Lots of third downs and yes, fourth downs in the game ... hopefully the 6 minute drives end in FG attempts.
I have a rather big lean to niu today because of recency ( Marshall sort of faded and NIU sort of got better ) but if both teams play their best ball, A Game if you will, then Marshall would annihilate them and for that reason, along with losing the good numbers, I laid off. Correct me if I am wrong but generally bowl season is fave/under early and dog/over mid to late and mixed in the majors. So I think we do start seeing some dogs bite over this week.
While NIU pass D numbers are good overall from a yardage standpoint, their ypa allowed is not all that great and if you look specifically at their games against decent pass offenses it hasn't gotten a passing grade. Meanwhile, Marshall has played against a "who's who" of bad offensive teams. NIU is one of those chameleon teams as far as pace is concerned. The other team tends to dictate it ..... when they have played slow teams the game has few plays and when they play fast teams the game has a lot of plays. Obviously with Marshall being above average in pace, I think we get enough plays for pts there. First quarter will be the telling quarter.
With the SDSU/Navy game I am backing the running clock, Rocky Long defending the option, and not expecting too many huge plays in the game. Lots of third downs and yes, fourth downs in the game ... hopefully the 6 minute drives end in FG attempts.
T
tipyerbartender1
Guest
I like UNI, over, SD St., and under, just trying to figure out which ones to fade myself on.
T
tipyerbartender1
Guest
I mean NIU. Who can keep track of institutional initials.
sportjunky
Follower of tha truddhist philosophy
i was shocked and worried with the opening of ksu -3.5. Thought maybe hundley's hand injury was in play or something else was up. So the line movement has been encouraging. most prestigious bowl game UCLA has played since I can remember (1998 rose maybe?). they better show up.
tee*dub
Head of Loggerhead Turtle Society
remind me again why you are forcing a play for every game? "least shitty option " is usually a no play in this endeavor we partake, no? good start by the way:cheers3:
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
It has to do with the amount of time I put in per game and my belief there is always a correct side to a game. That means some games will have larger edges than others but it is an extremely rare case where I don't believe there is a side or total that has a small edge. In the case of bowl games, due to putting in such a huge amount of time per game compared to the regular season where you simply cannot put that amount of time into each game (not enough hours in a day/week ), I have decided to push the edges that I perceive are smaller. Small sample size, as I have only done that the last two or three years but it has paid off huge so far as I have annihilated bowl season the past few seasons from a handicapping standpoint. Additionally, this year in particular I attempted to push every edge (with lesser success than my normal approach) and I would want to follow that through until season end anyway.
One thing is certain, I know most winning handicappers (not saying I am any great shakes btw) bet WAY less games than they should to actually make any decent money at it. Volume at a smaller edge will crush lack of volume at a bigger edge almost every single time. It is so not just in sports investing but every profitable form of betting. I especially think it is good strategy for those uncomfortable with huge bets on one event. I know you are comfortable with that, and I am too, to a lesser extent (I bet smaller than you) .... but for most they can generate as much or more profit as a single big bettor who is extremely particular about his perceived edge in order to play, while having a much smaller bankroll to play with. In addition, you get to the long run faster which is always nice. Sorry for the tangent of the last paragraph as some of it doesn't really pertain to me specifically and this bowl season but I do think people think you need to be super selective and bet big in order to make money and there are often better ways to get the same money. For instance, as a somewhat extreme example to make the point, would you rather a 10% edge with a single $10M ($1M profit) bet or a 5% edge with 50 $1M bets ($2.5M profit)?
bloodhound
Sniffing out wins
HammersSpreads
Pretty much a regular
You're my role model
TheGarfather
Pretty much a regular
Regarding your second paragraph, that fits me to a tee (pardon the pun). Intuitively I know its true, and the math supports it, but there is something to be said for doing what you're comfortable with. Personally, I can't stand to have lots of action, nothing I hate more than having 12 bets on a Saturday with half going at the same time. Exhausting and stressful.
I need to learn your ways, I fully admit, its just tough.
spanishshark
Youngest guy on the forum
Well looky here, the 2 old farts are making some mula. Keep it up brotha!
Gorgolon Lives
The Reverend of CTG
All the best to Car. Starting to like Rice myself. Enjoy the holidays brotha
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
Went over the LSU game with Garfather last night. Besides the fact we cap a lot of games together, I especially respect his opinion in regards to Oregon and Notre Dame. When we are both strong on something in bowl season the last couple years it has been the correct side a pretty high percentage of the time and he also alerted me to an angle involving the academies and the MAC which has been a pretty consistent winner for me. I have struggled with this game and revisited it a few times but added the under last night. I also developed a lean for LSU but find the idea laying this many with LSU's scoring production problematic. Some of the reasons behind the under:
- LSU will be without their Center in this game. LSU's offensive identity is their offensive line and this has to be a huge hit even though LSU is likely deep at the position.
- ND will be utilizing two QB's in the game. One of them is rather raw and will be facing a defense that has the ability to make raw QB's look silly. The other QB has been highly inconsistent, showing both the ability to make great plays and the ability to do the inexplicably stupid. His recent play has been horrible and his body language has been poor .... sort of looks defeated. I think the two qb approach will make it harder for both guys to adjust to LSU defensive speed and get any feel for the game. Of course, I expect a few turnovers and which goal line they happen at will matter. I also think the two qb usage will slow the ND pace a little
-LSU eats clock. They run power football and wear you down. I think they have success running it down the irish throat but they just are not a scoring juggernaut with Td's. 331 total pts this year, 119 of which come from games against Sam Houston State university and New Mexico State. Only other game lsu score more than 30 all year was Kentucky. LSU is one of the 10 slowest paced teams in the nation and they absolutely dictate the pace of the game onto opponents.
-ND defensive health. Irish defense gets a little healthier heading into this game. They were banged up all November and it showed in their rush defense. Gave up 719 rush yards from August through October and 1,221 rush yards in November while banged up. Don't get me wrong, they won't shut down the lsu running attack but I think you avoid some of the rush defense efficiency failings with some healing.
ADD
LSU/Notre Dame under 52.5
- LSU will be without their Center in this game. LSU's offensive identity is their offensive line and this has to be a huge hit even though LSU is likely deep at the position.
- ND will be utilizing two QB's in the game. One of them is rather raw and will be facing a defense that has the ability to make raw QB's look silly. The other QB has been highly inconsistent, showing both the ability to make great plays and the ability to do the inexplicably stupid. His recent play has been horrible and his body language has been poor .... sort of looks defeated. I think the two qb approach will make it harder for both guys to adjust to LSU defensive speed and get any feel for the game. Of course, I expect a few turnovers and which goal line they happen at will matter. I also think the two qb usage will slow the ND pace a little
-LSU eats clock. They run power football and wear you down. I think they have success running it down the irish throat but they just are not a scoring juggernaut with Td's. 331 total pts this year, 119 of which come from games against Sam Houston State university and New Mexico State. Only other game lsu score more than 30 all year was Kentucky. LSU is one of the 10 slowest paced teams in the nation and they absolutely dictate the pace of the game onto opponents.
-ND defensive health. Irish defense gets a little healthier heading into this game. They were banged up all November and it showed in their rush defense. Gave up 719 rush yards from August through October and 1,221 rush yards in November while banged up. Don't get me wrong, they won't shut down the lsu running attack but I think you avoid some of the rush defense efficiency failings with some healing.
ADD
LSU/Notre Dame under 52.5
HammersSpreads
Pretty much a regular
Thats exactly what I was thinking. Don't have much I like in that game, but if I had it at CC's number then I would feel real good about it. Nice get there kyle
booksbestfriend
On Johnny's Shitlist
I copied and pasted your bowl format to clean my thread. Judging by your success, I should have simply left your picks and saved myself the head/heartache. GL VK, continued success sir.
tee*dub
Head of Loggerhead Turtle Society
As always, a well thought out response. You are killing it and surely making folks a ton of money so who am I to question approach, but I lost regularly years ago with the shotgun approach. Works for some I guess but I would think it would be a problem for most.. I figure 10,000 bets are 10,000 bets. I'd rather have a sample of 10,000 bets with perceived big edges than 10,000 with varying edges.. But your point is well taken, it will take me a lot longer to get to my 10,000 bets-- years in my case.. Always enjoy your cerebral approach.. keep crushing.
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
Didn't work for me either compared to the more selective approach. There are some differences with sports investing compared to most other forms of betting too. The actual edge is hard to quantify. In "rules" games like blackjack or video poker .... the exact edge is known. Something that could be a problem in sports investing with the shotgun approach is that what you think is a 53% winner is actually a 52% winner (lose money at ten cent juice). It's sort of like the old saying about poker ..... everyone thinks they are a good lover and a good poker player but most are neither. Your edge in a given sporting event is a matter of great debate as it would be with poker. There are unknowns that don't exist in some other (much easier to beat) forms of gambling.
I wasn't preaching at you. You are good at picking winners and have been for years. Your approach is just fine. All I was getting at was some gambling theory and the fact that what can work for you ( betting 4k a game ) isn't an option for some people who have a smaller bankroll and the shotgun approach gives them an opportunity to make similar money with a smaller bankroll by investing in volume rather than single unit size. I wasn't telling you or anyone else to switch approaches. There are also some hidden advantages to being selective as it forces discipline and the bankroll management aspect of gambling can be as important as the advantage.
Thanks for the well wishes. Fun bowl run so far with the only full game bet loss so far being western Kentucky on the lateral play. Just waiting for reality to step in and kick me in the nuts and with all my bigten betting I am scared.
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
I got a few lucky ones and also won the coin flips, someone else has to get the short end of those. You will be fine
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