Thursday's MLB Discussion (7-25-2024)...

jay's have hit bradley pretty hard in his few outing vs them but i think this a totally different pitcher than the one they faced previous seasons, he been on some next level shit the last month or so and arm talent has never been a question with this kid, he still only 23 and looks like he has really put it together. very tempting to take the plus money on jays ff un1.5. actually think his k prop is light also, 4.5 -140 to over seems like a no brainer even tho jays are not a high k team sometimes the pitchers stuff outweighs the contact rate and imo Taj has elite stiff. after all efflin just fanned 4, last week flaherty punched out 8 jays and i passed on his cause jays solid contact rates. the way bradley pitching i think we play ov 4.5 k's vs pretty much anyone: even might be worth forgoing the juice and playing 6+ k's at plus money.
 
not sure there anything great to play in pads game, kinda looking at individual pads h,r,rbi props. pretty much all 3 right or switch hitters i'd think be in play vs Corbin are at 2.5 and varying plus money. Bogarts been hitting but it just one freaking single after another, he doesn't seem to have any pop left in his bat, gotta have lot of other things happen to cash ov2.5 just hitting singles! Profar has the best price of the 2.5 guys and i'd say been easily the most productive, he has really good daytime splits, 3 of 10 vs corbin nothing special but a good overall exit velo so he has squared him up in past, i assume he be in the 2 hole which i think helps also opposed to the others further down, unlike bogarts he can potentially do his own damage plus he has bogarts singles behind him, profar getting the most plus money seems like best choice but not sure it a great play just all i could come up with in this one. considered the pads tt against Corbin but as a team pads don't hit lhp particularly well, way higher ops vs rhp. if i would have slept better wouldn't have given this game much thought, lol.
 
this cat pitching for marlins walk and hr rate scream o's ff ov 2.5, only issue is they went into break cold and after taking 1st couple out the break the offense hasn't been doing a lot of damage. facing a dude who known to walk 3+ in 4-5 innings of work and gives up around 2.5 bombs per 9 outta be just what the dr ordered. that said they faced a pitcher w similar issues yesterday and it took them til the 6th to break thru and get anything off Cabrera. are they living it up a little in miami? might not be the time to be playing them in any fashion but this def a more reasonable option than laying the big juice.
 
oh shit, are tigers really starting meada today? i hadn't seen a listed pitcher for them but dk showing him! dk doesn't have any ff plays listed tho, they know what coming! no hitter props for cle side or anything for meada. i dunno if that means it not certain he starting or they just scared to be exposed to his awfulness?
 
2daBank said:
oh shit, are tigers really starting meada today? i hadn't seen a listed pitcher for them but dk showing him! dk doesn't have any ff plays listed tho, they know what coming! no hitter props for cle side or anything for meada. i dunno if that means it not certain he starting or they just scared to be exposed to his awfulness?
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Are they really??
 
2daBank said:
oh shit, are tigers really starting meada today? i hadn't seen a listed pitcher for them but dk showing him! dk doesn't have any ff plays listed tho, they know what coming! no hitter props for cle side or anything for meada. i dunno if that means it not certain he starting or they just scared to be exposed to his awfulness?
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What is your thoughts on very high juice of Cleveland TT over 2.5 runs?
 
TheDodgers said:
What is your thoughts on very high juice of Cleveland TT over 2.5 runs?
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i havnt seen it bro, when i saw it was meads they hadn't posted any ff lines yet. since then i had to run some errands. where it at? i see someone other than meads now so not even sure if i be interested.
 
peelpub94 said:
Got crushed past 2 days....

SD/WSH NRFI -125
ATL/NYM NRFI -130
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NRFI sure has become one of most popular bets. Couple guys across the street doing real well on them, though one went 0 4 yesterday. I'm just tracking to see if they can hold up all season. I'm skeptical books would offer new bet type that can be beat. But sure seems to be popular now
 
i'm not real sure what tigers pitching situation gonna look like and i didn't have lot of time. obviously if they plan on using meada after the 1st pen guy getting cle ff ov 2.5 at plus money be a steal but i just don't know so i left it alone. i didn't do any nrfi research but id think this game be a good option, i assume tigers going opener means this 1st cat they think matches up well with top the order? i dont think gavin williams has given up a run in 1st since his 1st start off the il, small sample but id expect he has a good game vs tigers lineup. think i saw -120 for the nrfi, like that but didn't get to look at till i came back to missouri side so didnt play.

profar went down to 1.5 h,r,rbi but fairly juicy, at same time my guy Taj price on k's went up before i made it across river so the obvious solution for me was a profar ov 1.5 h,r,rbi, Taj ov 4.5 k parlay, that how i roll, lol.
 
so that's freaking wierd, they started the game in washington and then went into a delay before they even got thru half a immimg? why the hell they start? that was pretty stupid on nats part cause now Corbin has warmed up and thrown pitches and has to sit? they generally not something guys like to or often do, i know the rule used to be it was up to the home team if and when a game started but after 1st pitch then it was mlb decision, not sure if it still that way or not? i remember tony larussa scheming ass would intentionally start games and would start a reliever instead the listed starter for that day so then after the delay he could put his starter in without burning him while attempting to burn other teams. not sure why nats would do that to themselves? now either Corbin has to suck it up or they really tax the pen.
 
PirateAlew said:
I hit tampa big today, with padres and over (frustrating to see the rain delay so quick), Mets+over, dodgers, clev, O's F5 and game and Oakland and over.
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don't understand why nats choose to start? pretty stupid, shoulda waited til it passed. i assume it still works same as used to where it up to home team when/if to start but then up to mlb after game in progress.

i like tampa but felt like attacking with Taj k prop and jays ff tt under instead of worrying bout rays offense since it mostly about loving the way Bradley been pitching last 2 months against jays overrated offense.
 
PirateAlew said:
I hit tampa big today, with padres and over (frustrating to see the rain delay so quick), Mets+over, dodgers, clev, O's F5 and game and Oakland and over.
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im always like "damn, my guy @PirateAlew has all kinds of action!" but in reality before this year most ppl would consider me heavy volume. circumstances have kinda lead to me making less plays, honestly i used to have a horrible time trying to be selective, id chop winners while keeping losers, especially playing simple full game dogs it damn near impossible for me to grade one play as stronger than other but think i've done a better job than in the past while being more selective this season. lot of that could be the amount of different plays/props compared to the past, then the 1st year i started doing pitcher k props then out totals there was crazy value all over the board, they have really tightened those lines up in the last few seasons to where there simply not as much to play., always gotta be finding a new angle to bet and hope we at least early to the party and make some coin before everyone figures out!!
 
this goes against what i was talking bout with tigers yesterday but think if anyone has the option i'd play wait and see, if tigers gonna let meada ever pitch this would be the kind of game he gets in, he still on 40 man and with the big club so they have to plan on using him at some point don't they? cant imagine they just wasting the spot??? the minute his ass gets up in pen i would be betting cle, id even lay -1.5 despite tigers streak of not losing by more than 1 damn near all freaking month. Visual on Meada warning up = lve bet the hell out of gaurdiahs!!
 
lvmike32 said:
NRFI sure has become one of most popular bets. Couple guys across the street doing real well on them, though one went 0 4 yesterday. I'm just tracking to see if they can hold up all season. I'm skeptical books would offer new bet type that can be beat. But sure seems to be popular now
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I'm not sure how new it is, I never really noticed them until I started using Fanatics. But I think you can find success if we stay disciplined (as always) and keep it within the primary criteria that you'd normally look at for say a FF Under, or TT under.

1) Both pitchers have great success vs top of line up, or line up has never seen a pitcher before is usually a good place to start. Hot pitcher obviously a plus too.
2) Top of line-ups are going through cold streaks
3) Umpire huge strike zone
4) Teams are generally anemic offensively. CHW, PIT, WSH, TB, MIA, TOR, etc.
5) A few outliers like the Mets have had a few 1st inning streaks despite a good offense.

I think Fanatics has already started correcting the lines, you'd often find -115 a lot more a few weeks ago, compared to now where it seems rare.
 
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lvmike32 said:
NRFI sure has become one of most popular bets. Couple guys across the street doing real well on them, though one went 0 4 yesterday. I'm just tracking to see if they can hold up all season. I'm skeptical books would offer new bet type that can be beat. But sure seems to be popular now
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where ya been last 2-3 years buddy? i know you been around! that how lot of these props, differenf team totals, or the other bets we been doing tend to go. seems like we catch them a little bit before they become common knowledge and are able to exploit for little time. i remember i was even a tad ahead the nba 3 point props. for a couple months the beginning one season they were super generic lines and i smashed, hit like 70+% with not bad juice, i'm sure i was far from the 1st just was lucky enough to catch on and get in on a little the free money before they fixed. pitcher k props were way softer 2-3 years back when i started. if they continue getting beat won't take real long till prices shift.
 
2daBank said:
im always like "damn, my guy @PirateAlew has all kinds of action!" but in reality before this year most ppl would consider me heavy volume. circumstances have kinda lead to me making less plays, honestly i used to have a horrible time trying to be selective, id chop winners while keeping losers, especially playing simple full game dogs it damn near impossible for me to grade one play as stronger than other but think i've done a better job than in the past while being more selective this season. lot of that could be the amount of different plays/props compared to the past, then the 1st year i started doing pitcher k props then out totals there was crazy value all over the board, they have really tightened those lines up in the last few seasons to where there simply not as much to play., always gotta be finding a new angle to bet and hope we at least early to the party and make some coin before everyone figures out!!
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He plays over 30 plus plays a day generally. Two many for myself but to each his own.
 
balty ff team total was cake! im
sure some ppl not as appreciative as me for them playing like shit last 2-3 games (lol) to where we got that super soft price against a walk and bomb scrub machine!
 
TheDodgers said:
He plays over 30 plus plays a day generally. Two many for myself but to each his own.
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back when i considered myself heavy volume i prob averaged 7-10ish, i just can't find more a day i think the price/number is soft and that really the goal, find stuff i believe cashes more than price suggest to be profitable, i find that to be easier than pretending i know wtf gonna happen in 1 random baseball game!
 
well like i said i didn't get to bet it but the nrfi in cleveland was my 1st attempt at capping my own and not following ya'lls lead and it hit! sucks i didn't look before going across river, but i didn't know who tigers were starting at that point. got wheels but now im
time crunched catching up w things that need done and coming to hospital for theresa. i did talk a friend of mine into playing so that something, didn't go to total waste! lol.

profar got a double his 2md at bat but no rbi and didn't get drove in. total bases hit but i almost never play that, just prefer the h,r, rbi. good news is only the 2nd inning so should have a few more at bats and anything cashes, hit, walk and run, sac fly, any will
do!
 
munoz only walked 2 thru 5 innings today but gave up 3 bombs, look for a higher walk total his next start as it appears he rarely puts together stretches of fewer walks, he prob walk 3-4 next time out!
 
if o's plan on winning something this year they better do something bout kimbrel being closer, he pretty much single handedly buried phillies chances last year, i don't care how effective he may have been in reg season you can't trust this dude in playoffs vs a good lineup!
 
2daBank said:
if o's plan on winning something this year they better do something bout kimbrel being closer, he pretty much single handedly buried phillies chances last year, i don't care how effective he may have been in reg season you can't trust this dude in playoffs vs a good lineup!
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Unfcking real.
 
TheDodgers said:
Kimbrel putting my ass in full pucker mode. This guy is a fckikg idiot
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i really hope they understand they have to make a deal for a legit closer, they got a overcrowded amount of young and mlb ready talent they can't even got on the dang field, be aggressive and go get someone with legit closer stuff.
 
Just unreal how they actually signed him as he did sink the Phillies last year. He very much may have cost them this game and me a few bucks.
 
TheDodgers said:
Just unreal how they actually signed him as he did sink the Phillies last year. He very much may have cost them this game and me a few bucks.
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i guess they were desperate seeing how they have one the better closers in league sitting on shelf. he had to have TJ middle last year didn't he? they have so much hitting talent sitting around not even playing, they should be able to go get anyone they want. there ain't enough room on the roster for all the young bats they have it time to cash in some that equity!!
 
2daBank said:
i guess they were desperate seeing how they have one the better closers in league sitting on shelf. he had to have TJ middle last year didn't he? they have so much hitting talent sitting around not even playing, they should be able to go get anyone they want. there ain't enough room on the roster for all the young bats they have it time to cash in some that equity!!
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Only two "closers" I feel would be lights out and one plays for Cleveland so he's not going anywhere. Other is a starter for the WSox and you gotta hope his arm can stay on for another few months even if he's moved to the closer role. Who else out there do you even trust to close games that will be available?
 
not very often we can say all the runs in tigers game came from Beaz. Has to sting for williams knowing he got beat w one bad pitch to like the worst hitting everyday player in the league!
 
KJ said:
Only two "closers" I feel would be lights out and one plays for Cleveland so he's not going anywhere. Other is a starter for the WSox and you gotta hope his arm can stay on for another few months even if he's moved to the closer role. Who else out there do you even trust to close games that will be available?
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oh i have no clue, i havnt paid attention to trade talks or what out there at all. just assume they have enough chips they could pry someone off some team!! the good thing bout the chisox kid he not a rental but i don't think he would be my right now solution even in pen, huge question mark, of course i still rather trot him out in 9th not knowing before trusting kimbrel in a playoff game!

a's have that nasty rookie closer, they damn sure should be willing to deal him regardless of long term cost control, closer/pen is like the last piece a championship puzzle, not what you build your team around, they could significantly help their lineup by moving him to a team like o's. i have no clue if they exploring that but they should be!!

surely one these other scrub teams has a guy with nasty stuff wasting away?
 
2daBank said:
oh i have no clue, i havnt paid attention to trade talks or what out there at all. just assume they have enough chips they could pry someone off some team!! the good thing bout the chisox kid he not a rental but i don't think he would be my right now solution even in pen, huge question mark, of course i still rather trot him out in 9th not knowing before trusting kimbrel in a playoff game!

a's have that nasty rookie closer, they damn sure should be willing to deal him regardless of long term cost control, closer/pen is like the last piece a championship puzzle, not what you build your team around, they could significantly help their lineup by moving him to a team like o's. i have no clue if they exploring that but they should be!!

surely one these other scrub teams has a guy with nasty stuff wasting away?
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Yeah forgot about A's guy, he's probably worth a king's ransom for a team like the O's at this point

Can't think of anyone else from the teams that will be selling which aren't many

Could see Hicks being sold into a closer role
 
welp, profar prop was a bust. had he simply hit the double in 1st instead of 2nd with 2 outs and nobody on woulda cashed, that the way it goes, on to the next.
 
KJ said:
Yeah forgot about A's guy, he's probably worth a king's ransom for a team like the O's at this point

Can't think of anyone else from the teams that will be selling which aren't many

Could see Hicks being sold into a closer role
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hicks isn't a awful idea cept dunno bout his mentality, he whined here cause he wanted to be starter, maybe he been kicked around enough as starter this year to understand closing what will get him a legit paycheck? not sure tho.

o's the only team i'd think in a good enough position to offer a's something worth taking. at some point o's can't just keep sitting on all that extra talent!
 
2daBank said:
hicks isn't a awful idea cept dunno bout his mentality, he whined here cause he wanted to be starter, maybe he been kicked around enough as starter this year to understand closing what will get him a legit paycheck? not sure tho.

o's the only team i'd think in a good enough position to offer a's something worth taking. at some point o's can't just keep sitting on all that extra talent!
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Well I'm seeing that the move of Hicks to the SF bullpen is imminent
 
KJ said:
Well I'm seeing that the move of Hicks to the SF bullpen is imminent
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certainly seems that way, 1st we lose the chance to fade madea next hicks gonna be off the board, my favorite caps lately been finding these dumpster fire starters! lol
 
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