Thursday's MLB Discussion (7-25-2024)...

2daBank said:
certainly seems that way, 1st we lose the chance to fade madea next hicks gonna be off the board, my favorite caps lately been finding these dumpster fire starters! lol
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Giants know he isn't worth shit in trade as a starter, still has a week to show he can still close I guess
 
KJ said:
Giants know he isn't worth shit in trade as a starter, still has a week to show he can still close I guess
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makes sense, they have much better options getting healthy all a sudden also. not gonna lie coming into the year i was pretty sure Hicks was gonna turn into a really good starter, just stuff + giants coaching staff track record with pitchers + cardinals inability to find and nurture talent! lol. he started off decent enough, made some money on few different props for him, then he turned into a pumpkin and been making little money going against him one way or another.
 
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wrong thread but man, this really 1st time i've watched usa woman soccer since i've grown to like and appreciate soccer. this like a all star team vs high school kids! lol
 
Played SF f5 tt o1.5 -140

Obv Kershaw has dominated the Giants over the years but sorry, first start of the year after subpar rehab I have to see him hold a lineup down through 5 innings to believe it
 
peelpub94 said:
Cease no hitter just now
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no shit. with the delay and all? think that little rain storm screwed my profar prop, lol. corbin was nails after the break, freaking hardly ever see pitcher get going then come back and pitch great (rarely even come bsck in) after a delay.
 
2daBank said:
how many goals they laying on that number? -4.5? total guess
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I only glanced, didn't even look at the spread. Took a little beating in the men's soccer yesterday so didn't even look at Olympics today other than a quick glance. Probably 4.5 juiced and 5.5 at slight + money is my guess
 
KJ said:
I only glanced, didn't even look at the spread. Took a little beating in the men's soccer yesterday so didn't even look at Olympics today other than a quick glance. Probably 4.5 juiced and 5.5 at slight + money is my guess
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feels like they should have 5-6 goals but keep missing target in 2nd half.
 
gotta think they gonna have to start putting more respect into Bradley props and price. he is becoming a frot of rotation type guy!
 
2daBank said:
anyone have the nerve to look at a oakland team total over? lol
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Actually going to tail the Action SGP. Oakland ML, Andujar o1.5 bases, Stripling u2.5 ks. They made great points on the two props, enough for me to jump aboard.
 
PirateAlew said:
I hit tampa big today, with padres and over (frustrating to see the rain delay so quick), Mets+over, dodgers, clev, O's F5 and game and Oakland and over.
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looks like tampa is taking care of biz easy with the over and padres made it easy with the no hitter which killed the smaller over . Now come on dodgers, mets and Oakland tonight, hope i can get this Dodgers F5 and game.
 
PirateAlew said:
I like it. Been on the fence with the team total as i played the game over big
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i havnt looked at the angels pitcher really at all, no clue if he has talent just know he has given up 7 runs in 10 big league innings and until hunter brown shut them down a's offense been kinda hot. i really wanted to play the mets/braves nrfi but didn't expect it to be juiced so much. thought maybe braves track record of runs being scored in the 1st might keep price down but i guess the pitching matchup along with mets seemingly never scoring in 1st outweighed that. im just starting to dabble w capping these 1st inning plays, today was 1st time picking my own instead of piggy backing 1 or 2 from
@peelpub94 or @TheDodgers so i'm not comfy enough to be laying freaking -165!
 
KJ said:
Actually going to tail the Action SGP. Oakland ML, Andujar o1.5 bases, Stripling u2.5 ks. They made great points on the two props, enough for me to jump aboard.
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i dunno who that is you tailing or seen the reasoning. i understand oakland, no clue bout rest. lol


good play on giants ff tt, i tried to talk myself into playing them ff ml, couldn't do it but dunno why the tt didn't cross my mind unless i didn't like-140 w a bit of unknown. def agreed w your logic, i did like Ray in similar spot yesterday but he not at tail end his career like kershaw plus i liked his splits and fact he got plenty of rehab start innings before his start. i didn't dig that far on kershaw cause i decided i didn't want to back the webb part the picture for giants ml.. i have plenty of time to cap this stuff sitting with theresa ay hospital but im so unorganized away from my spot at home with all my notebooks! lol.
 
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Just put some more on Oakland over. Bruce Drekman behind the dish, 15-3 over, over 12.6 runs per game in 18 games. He's one of only 3-4 umps that produce runs like that right now. The pitching also called for it as The over is 7-1 last 8 games for A's and with the A's ranked 4th in Homers at 132 its easy to see why, tonight they face an inexperienced pitcher who's only thrown in 12 MLB games since 2022 and has a 6 ERA, Meanwhile A's pitcher Ross S has a 5.82 ERA And a 4.73 ERA against LAA in 6 starts. Runs should be plenty early and late, as angels pen is 4th worst at 4.5 ERA, while Oak's pen has a 3.64 ERA.
 
2daBank said:
i dunno who that is you tailing or seen the reasoning. i understand oakland, no clue bout rest. lol


good play on giants ff tt, i tried to talk myself into playing them ff ml, couldn't do it but dunno why the tt didn't cross my mind unless i didn't like-140 w a bit of unknown. def agreed w your logic, i did like Ray in similar spot yesterday but he not at tail end his career like kershaw plus i liked his splits and fact he got plenty of rehab start innings before his start. i didn't dig that far on kershaw cause i decided i didn't want to back the webb part the picture for giants ml.. i have plenty of time to cap this stuff sitting with theresa ay hospital but im so unorganized away from my spot at home with all my notebooks! lol.
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Action Network, get their emails and read, sometimes good info

Quickly, Andujar been hot and hits ball hard, doesn't k which is perfect against a non-k pitcher like Stripling which leads to him. 2 or less ks in 4/5 before the DL, now first back, probably on a pitch count anyway and simply doesn't strike dudes out. 2.5 is the kind of number I want to go under, never see it that low but it's there for a reason.
 
Andujar is destroying leftys right now too, is a great fastball hitter, and Rosenberg's is below average.

Pizza money parlay +305

Andjuar 2+ Hits / Rengifo 1+ Hit
 
KJ said:
Action Network, get their emails and read, sometimes good info

Quickly, Andujar been hot and hits ball hard, doesn't k which is perfect against a non-k pitcher like Stripling which leads to him. 2 or less ks in 4/5 before the DL, now first back, probably on a pitch count anyway and simply doesn't strike dudes out. 2.5 is the kind of number I want to go under, never see it that low but it's there for a reason.
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i didn't even know dude was a laa player! lol. i not only rarely play laa or oak games i don't even think i cap either real often. prob not 2 teams i know less about than these 2. every once in awhile i hold my nose and play a's vs good teams if price right, think teams go to that shit show stadium with terrible amenities, 12 fans in stands and get caught napping . it never a thing where im actually capping and trying to come up with price i feel is more accurate, basically like i pretty much cap every other team/game. i havnt put that kind of effort into a a's game in i dunno how long, laziness to the point i can't name 3 position players, not sure i can name 3 angels position player either, those only 2 teams like that. although i rarely put tons of effort into yanks games either, weird. the other day i was kinda shocked how terrible yankees lineup is once ya get past the 3 hole w judge, they are putrid!
 
2daBank said:
i didn't even know dude was a laa player! lol. i not only rarely play laa or oak games i don't even think i cap either real often. prob not 2 teams i know less about than these 2. every once in awhile i hold my nose and play a's vs good teams if price right, think teams go to that shit show stadium with terrible amenities, 12 fans in stands and get caught napping . it never a thing where im actually capping and trying to come up with price i feel is more accurate, basically like i pretty much cap every other team/game. i havnt put that kind of effort into a a's game in i dunno how long, laziness to the point i can't name 3 position players, not sure i can name 3 angels position player either, those only 2 teams like that. although i rarely put tons of effort into yanks games either, weird. the other day i was kinda shocked how terrible yankees lineup is once ya get past the 3 hole w judge, they are putrid!
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Amazing to think within a decade Oakland will have lost the NFL, NBA and MLB. That takes some work although the Bay Area shouldn't be more than SF and Palo Alto for sports teams.

I assume you're talking about Stripling above. Andujar was runner up to Ohtani-son for ROY and A's took a flier on him, why not if you're gonna be in Sacramento for a couple years?
 
Damn just saw the A's closer broke his left pinkie on Monday doing an exercise. Hard to imagine anyone trading for him now although he'd likely be ready for the postseason but that's a month plus of being out for teams trying to contend
 
Orioles could trade for him knowing they'll be in the postseason and he has five years of control left, thinking for the future and works for their postseason this year. Teams that need him for the stretch run have to be out.
 
KJ said:
Damn just saw the A's closer broke his left pinkie on Monday doing an exercise. Hard to imagine anyone trading for him now although he'd likely be ready for the postseason but that's a month plus of being out for teams trying to contend
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oh damn that sucks. i already had heard he pretty much never appears in b2b games which a bit a knock, not having him till postseason and getting rusty doesn't make giving up a bunch of talent for him very appealing .
 
KJ said:
Orioles could trade for him knowing they'll be in the postseason and he has five years of control left, thinking for the future and works for their postseason this year. Teams that need him for the stretch run have to be out.
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i really couldn't think of another team who could put together a appealing deal without damaging their roster the way o's could
. maybe with prospects not as close to mlb ready but if im oakland i want guys who can step in and start playing.
 
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Hope the Mutts keep pounding. Have mets to finish out my top 4 with Tampa, Padres and LAD, and over would be great too, then it's on to Oakland
 
PirateAlew said:
Hope the Mutts keep pounding. Have mets to finish out my top 4 with Tampa, Padres and LAD, and over would be great too, then it's on to Oakland
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no run 1st cashed, i was 2 for 2 on those, couldn't play 1st cause tigers hadn't named starter yet when i was ready, then mets/braves was just to expensive. i'm gonna start trying to figure those out and get on early if i see one.
 
2daBank said:
where ya been last 2-3 years buddy? i know you been around! that how lot of these props, differenf team totals, or the other bets we been doing tend to go. seems like we catch them a little bit before they become common knowledge and are able to exploit for little time. i remember i was even a tad ahead the nba 3 point props. for a couple months the beginning one season they were super generic lines and i smashed, hit like 70+% with not bad juice, i'm sure i was far from the 1st just was lucky enough to catch on and get in on a little the free money before they fixed. pitcher k props were way softer 2-3 years back when i started. if they continue getting beat won't take real long till prices shift.
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Yeah ive just never seen a bet type explode on the scene like this one last month. Much more so across the street. Couple guys absolutely killing it. One was up 113 units at one point betting 1u per game. Seems to be cooling. I'm gonna track rest of season. Gotta think regression/book adjustments coming. I assume books doing OK since they're offering it. But it just stands out
 
lvmike32 said:
Yeah ive just never seen a bet type explode on the scene like this one last month. Much more so across the street. Couple guys absolutely killing it. One was up 113 units at one point betting 1u per game. Seems to be cooling. I'm gonna track rest of season. Gotta think regression/book adjustments coming. I assume books doing OK since they're offering it. But it just stands out
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i like the idea a lot, gonna see how i do w them for awhile, hopefully however i go about it will be ok and maybe different games, i dunno really but the way mlb has trended for me last few years is trying to isolate certain things and eliminate as much extra shit as possible.. i feel kinda dumb for not ever looking at these cause you really eliminating noise with 1 inning.
 
PirateAlew said:
Just put some more on Oakland over. Bruce Drekman behind the dish, 15-3 over, over 12.6 runs per game in 18 games. He's one of only 3-4 umps that produce runs like that right now. The pitching also called for it as The over is 7-1 last 8 games for A's and with the A's ranked 4th in Homers at 132 its easy to see why, tonight they face an inexperienced pitcher who's only thrown in 12 MLB games since 2022 and has a 6 ERA, Meanwhile A's pitcher Ross S has a 5.82 ERA And a 4.73 ERA against LAA in 6 starts. Runs should be plenty early and late, as angels pen is 4th worst at 4.5 ERA, while Oak's pen has a 3.64 ERA.
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That over was easy! and oakland won too. Big big day. I told you guys it's basically an auto over, When Drekman and Fletcher are behind home, it's almost always worth an over play. (Drekman now is 16-3 over in his games, fletcher is 17-3 over). Both over 12 runs per game when most umps games are 8-9.
 
PirateAlew said:
That over was easy! and oakland won too. Big big day. I told you guys it's basically an auto over, When Drekman and Fletcher are behind home, it's almost always worth an over play. (Drekman now is 16-3 over in his games, fletcher is 17-3 over). Both over 12 runs per game when most umps games are 8-9.
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That's for the year but over the last decade neither are complete over guys, pretty much in between. Don't be surprised to see a revert to the mean, those are arbitrary stats imo. Tread lightly if that's your angle, neither are traditionally over guys. Fletcher might sway that way but not concrete.
 
PirateAlew said:
That over was easy! and oakland won too. Big big day. I told you guys it's basically an auto over, When Drekman and Fletcher are behind home, it's almost always worth an over play. (Drekman now is 16-3 over in his games, fletcher is 17-3 over). Both over 12 runs per game when most umps games are 8-9.
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Also not sure what you look at for umps...if you simply look at o/u on the season we likely don't have a conversation

I prefer strike percentage but even moreso WHIP, it tells me much more about results than random o/u stats
 
KJ said:
Also not sure what you look at for umps...if you simply look at o/u on the season we likely don't have a conversation

I prefer strike percentage but even moreso WHIP, it tells me much more about results than random o/u stats
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Yes, I look at a lot of stats with 2 very important stats-strike call % and So/Bb ratio (and pitcher ERA/Whip). I weigh those heavily and TRI or total run impact. True on drekman and fletcher but I’ve learned to ride the hot trend and so far these guys are consistently calling high scoring games this year. Ideally guys with less than 2.5 So/Bb ratio and 64 % strikes or less tend to be more hitter friendly and have higher scoring games (on average).
 
PirateAlew said:
Yes, I look at a lot of stats with 2 very important stats-strike call % and So/Bb ratio (and pitcher ERA/Whip). I weigh those heavily and TRI or total run impact. True on drekman and fletcher but I’ve learned to ride the hot trend and so far these guys are consistently calling high scoring games this year. Ideally guys with less than 2.5 So/Bb ratio and 64 % strikes or less tend to be more hitter friendly and have higher scoring games (on average).
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Just got to watch for who's been pitching in their games and what parks

I gravitate away from those kinds of trends, not necessarily that I'll jump on unders per se but I don't expect them to randomly be over machines by the end of the season when that has never been their MO
 
PirateAlew said:
That over was easy! and oakland won too. Big big day. I told you guys it's basically an auto over, When Drekman and Fletcher are behind home, it's almost always worth an over play. (Drekman now is 16-3 over in his games, fletcher is 17-3 over). Both over 12 runs per game when most umps games are 8-9.
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Way top funny man.
 
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