Wednesday around the bases DISCUSSION Thread

2daBank said:
i was a bello fan when he 1st came up, i remember cashing his k prop bunch of times. he seems to have regressed badly, i wonder if this has anything to do with red sox new philosophy on pitching where they have guys throwing way more spin than fastballs? has to be part of it. i guess it has worked considering that staff been much better than expected but i don't really like the idea of having a overall philosophy for every pitcher on the staff, think it makes a lot more sense to be a case by case basis.
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Yeah I think that kid just blows. I must have seen his bad starts last season but I don’t think he has it.
 
peelpub94 said:
Everyone says this is the dog days of summer for sports but I have no idea what they're talking about. MLB, Euro, Copa, Wimbledon and yes, I follow the Tour de France too.
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yea i'm loving the euro and copa along w bases/ im pretty much lost on tennis since the big 3 gone, my tennis strategy was always just bet them at majors, lol. can't say i've ever watched cycling but i watch bowling a lot so i can't say nothing bad bout it, lol.
 
2daBank said:
yea i'm loving the euro and copa along w bases/ im pretty much lost on tennis since the big 3 gone, my tennis strategy was always just bet them at majors, lol. can't say i've ever watched cycling but i watch bowling a lot so i can't say nothing bad bout it, lol.
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Now this is St Louis
 
Inspekdah said:
Yeah I think that kid just blows. I must have seen his bad starts last season but I don’t think he has it.
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think it was actually 2 years ago i played him a lot but yea he never been consistent which prob why i cashed lot of his props they never got very high thanks to him looking bad a lot! lol. i have to look at fish for a second but his over 1.5 walks seems like freaking cake!
 
the last 7 days fish have 6 total walks! jfc, in a league where all ya gotta do is leave your bat on your shoulder you will walk 10% the time!
 
i guess it like this, if fish won't take the walks Bello seems very willing to issue they either gonna strike out or allow him to pitch deeper!! something has to give, a mfer walking ppl left and right vs a team who refuses to walk!!
 
think it was the nats i watched the other day against peterson where they made contact and made a out on at least 4-5 different occasions it shoulda been ball 4!
 
i should just move the fuck off this but im stuck trying to figure this out. a pitcher who walking guys at a redic rate with a low walk total vs a team who apparently refuses to walk! there is def a play here, they either take his walks or he cashes his ov 4.5 k's!
 
Looking for 2 more live tennis wagers to pair up with Gilbert outs. Being very judicious about this shit. Which means I might be passing out.

Tiafoe 2nd set/Gilbert o17.5 outs +122 2*
 
Gotta go back to the well today with the Phillies. Line up to -130 at Ceasars. Think that is a really good price with Wheeler. Seems like every time I bet Chicago with Imanga he does not get much run support.
Also will take the phillies ff at -130. Wheeler with his last 2 starts has gone 6 and 7 innings.
One last prop bet that may due me in due to the juice is Castallanos over .5 hit at -244. He hits well at Wrigley. Also very very small play on him to hit a home run at +305.
 
TheDodgers said:
Gotta go back to the well today with the Phillies. Line up to -130 at Ceasars. Think that is a really good price with Wheeler. Seems like every time I bet Chicago with Imanga he does not get much run support.
Also will take the phillies ff at -130. Wheeler with his last 2 starts has gone 6 and 7 innings.
One last prop bet that may due me in due to the juice is Castallanos over .5 hit at -244. He hits well at Wrigley. Also very very small play on him to hit a home run at +305.
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Good stuff
 
KJ said:
Looking for 2 more live tennis wagers to pair up with Gilbert outs. Being very judicious about this shit. Which means I might be passing out.

Tiafoe 2nd set/Gilbert o17.5 outs +122 2*
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I did actually pass out so it's like a new day! Nap is a term that will likely be on my head stone.

Now have two in the books with the Gilberto outs, going to poach a third one. With two in, likely a big favorite.
 
Did Alcaraz 2nd set/Gilbert o17.5 -145. Done with it, now in for 3 strong units at a reasonable price.
 
i'm assuming gavin williams has made a couple rehab starts? anyone know for sure or his stats/number of pitches? that be super helpful.
 
2daBank said:
i'm assuming gavin williams has made a couple rehab starts? anyone know for sure or his stats/number of pitches? that be super helpful.
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what i see on fangraphs he made like 5-6 minor league starts? doesnt show much bout them tho and the total innings was pretty low. like to see if/when he last pitched at any level, what his velo like, and most important how many pitches he threw. they have him for 4.5 k's with pretty heavy juice to the over, that could be cake or under could be real solid if he only gonna throw 60 pitches or something?? gonna keep trying to find
 
Inspekdah said:
Would you consider Gilbert O 18.5 +190?
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honestly i like that better than the juice on 17.5. wouldn't be the case if he was pitching against scrubs but i think there more risk to even go 6 against the o's so yea i rather have the plus on 18.5. personally i still think k's the way to rock with him tonight.
 
2daBank said:
honestly i like that better than the juice on 17.5. wouldn't be the case if he was pitching against scrubs but i think there more risk to even go 6 against the o's so yea i rather have the plus on 18.5. personally i still think k's the way to rock with him tonight.
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It’s a big number on FD. Other books have it at +125.

He’s gone 6.1 11 of 17 starts.
 
Inspekdah said:
It’s a big number on FD. Other books have it at +125.

He’s gone 6.1 11 of 17 starts.
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oh yea he been killing it far as pitching deep into games. they just havnt all been against lineups this strong. not saying he can't or won't i just have a feeling he will need k's here, not sure he wants o's putting a bunch his high fastballs into play. so i expect more pitches per at bat tonight. i could be wrong he could get a bunch of pop outs and lazy fly balls but for me k's the play as i think if he pitches into 7th he punching out 7+ but imo he could punch 7+ and only go 5 innings.
 
KJ said:
He's the best pitcher in MLB so fire away
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you think? im not disagreeing i honestly don't know, i always been a fan but hadn't realized he took that kind of leap. i'm pretty partial to wheeler and there others who im
sure have cases. not taking anything from him just havnt paid enough attention this season to go there.
 
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2daBank said:
you think? im not disagreeing i honestly don't know, i always been a fan but hadn't realized he took that kind of leap. i'm pretty partial to wheeler and there others who im
sure have cases. not taking anything from him just havnt paid enough attention this season to go there.
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Yes I'm fairly confident

He'll start the ASG for the AL

At least he should
 
Seriously if M's make the playoffs and you have to face Gilbert/Kirby/Castillo regardless of Castillo this season, who's betting against that?
 
KJ said:
Yes I'm fairly confident

He'll start the ASG for the AL

At least he should
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.88 whip tough to argue with!

plus he has improved his numbers in pretty much every category that doesn't get talked bout that i hold dear, lol. his 1st pitch strikes have went way up, guys are making less contact when they swing at pitches out the zone, actually less inside zone also. his swinging strike rate has increased into elite area. odd his k's per 9 a tad under 1 a inning considering that. another reason i like his k prop, most things i look at scream he should be punching out more like 10 per 9 innings not 8 something!

there is a ton of good and i always been a fan, i can't think of anyone in AL off top my head i'd for sure take over him. i'm sure he in the top few at least. that kid white sox have is pretty fucking nasty tho!
 
TheDodgers said:
Gotta go back to the well today with the Phillies. Line up to -130 at Ceasars. Think that is a really good price with Wheeler. Seems like every time I bet Chicago with Imanga he does not get much run support.
Also will take the phillies ff at -130. Wheeler with his last 2 starts has gone 6 and 7 innings.
One last prop bet that may due me in due to the juice is Castallanos over .5 hit at -244. He hits well at Wrigley. Also very very small play on him to hit a home run at +305.
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I have a -108 available.
 
TheDodgers said:
I tried finding stats on Williams for pitch count in rehab stint but couldn't find anything.
Also taking a shot with Brewers -1.5 at -115. Hudson at home numbers are brutal, 0-5 with an era at 8.58.
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I actually went wild and took Crew TT @6.5 fifteen cents
 
KJ said:
Yes I'm fairly confident

He'll start the ASG for the AL

At least he should
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they were just talking bout who best pitcher on mlb radio on way back to hospital and they were all bout my guy wheeler, they had cole in that group which hard to argue when he healthy, they were actually bringing up kirby and not gilbert, i obviously been a fan of both and without looking i'd say kirby is missing few more bats this year but pretty sure id rock gilbert over kirby. without breaking down stats my man wheeler differentiator for me is he a proven playoff stud! no other pitcher id take for game 7!!
 
TheDodgers said:
I tried finding stats on Williams for pitch count in rehab stint but couldn't find anything.
Also taking a shot with Brewers -1.5 at -115. Hudson at home numbers are brutal, 0-5 with an era at 8.58.
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i couldn't find shit either, thanks for looking.
 
2daBank said:
they were just talking bout who best pitcher on mlb radio on way back to hospital and they were all bout my guy wheeler, they had cole in that group which hard to argue when he healthy, they were actually bringing up kirby and not gilbert, i obviously been a fan of both and without looking i'd say kirby is missing few more bats this year but pretty sure id rock gilbert over kirby. without breaking down stats my man wheeler differentiator for me is he a proven playoff stud! no other pitcher id take for game 7!!
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I get it but missing bats has no correlation with mentally pitching a game 7

It's why I hate stats and sabremetrics lol. They are simply numbers. I don't do that.
 
TheDodgers said:
Gotta go back to the well today with the Phillies. Line up to -130 at Ceasars. Think that is a really good price with Wheeler. Seems like every time I bet Chicago with Imanga he does not get much run support.
Also will take the phillies ff at -130. Wheeler with his last 2 starts has gone 6 and 7 innings.
One last prop bet that may due me in due to the juice is Castallanos over .5 hit at -244. He hits well at Wrigley. Also very very small play on him to hit a home run at +305.
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cubs pitcher another one i havnt really been able to make a book on yet but i thought same thing when i saw the price on my guy wheeler, dont get that often! and regardless of cubs pitcher abilities there no doubt which pitcher facing the easier lineup! dont need to do much capping to say i expect wheels to go 6+ and only allow a run or 2 max. great price when you expect at least that out of starter!
 
KJ said:
I get it but missing bats has no correlation with mentally pitching a game 7

It's why I hate stats and sabremetrics lol. They are simply numbers. I don't do that.
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i'm saying in past kirby didn't miss enough bats for me to take him over gilbert. i never liked the idea pitching to contact was "luck" when you got outs. the only thing i like bout the saber die hards is they often control/move lines and i often fade their view!! analytics just like everything else, a tool, a quite useful one but when you start treating them as the end all be all you just a sheep, i computer and slightly smarter sheep but a sheep none the less. my argument for wheels is he has proven it over and over in the biggest playoff games, not that he misses bats.
 
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Joecar said:
He went 4 inn and then 5 inn his last two rehab starts. Didn’t see pitch count
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right on. gotta think that most likely 60-70 pitches at least. i have no clue but would assume 80 or so would be his limit. if the juice was lower i'd def consider ov 4.5 k's but not gonna pay a big tax on it since it a pretty big guess!
 
Joecar said:
He went 4 inn and then 5 inn his last two rehab starts. Didn’t see pitch count
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looks like he kinda shied away from throwing sliders, heavy on fastballs, they might have something mixed up tho cause the few sliders he threw were 5+ mph faster than before, could be them not qualifying cutter/slider correctly, think they get mixed up sometimes.
 
B.A.R. said:
I have a -108 available.
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nice, i see -115 at DK, they def on my short list, i would like to look little more at cubs pitcher but best team in baseball w who i think best pitcher this a tough price to pass!! guess i could do my due diligence and make sure wheeler isn't awful at wrigley or something, lol.
 
i didn't understand philly or cards being dogs yesterday, def no sense worrying bout why they do what they do, im just here to take advantage when they do dumb things!! lol
 
TheDodgers said:
I tried finding stats on Williams for pitch count in rehab stint but couldn't find anything.
Also taking a shot with Brewers -1.5 at -115. Hudson at home numbers are brutal, 0-5 with an era at 8.58.
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makes sense on hudson, not sure a guy pitching to contact a great idea at coors. although he used to get a pretty lofty ground ball rate, that should play, then again he has a habit of not being able to control his sinker/throw for k's, walking guys at coors then pitching to contact equals a 8+ era it seems, lol.
 
KJ said:
Seriously if M's make the playoffs and you have to face Gilbert/Kirby/Castillo regardless of Castillo this season, who's betting against that?
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i mean give me a team with just solid pitchers and i'll consider it cause seattle offense is so bad! pitching wins and all but you can't win without scoring, these guys can't repeatedly shut out playoff teams. maybe not the wc teams but gotta think the better teams they face in playoffs, the o's and yankees of the world have pitchers that will mow down seattle lineup.
 
2daBank said:
i mean give me a team with just solid pitchers and i'll consider it cause seattle offense is so bad! pitching wins and all but you can't win without scoring, these guys can't repeatedly shut out playoff teams. maybe not the wc teams but gotta think the better teams they face in playoffs, the o's and yankees of the world have pitchers that will mow down seattle lineup.
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Dude Yankees?

Let's watch Wimbledon for a week and digest those Nathan's hotdogs
 
2daBank said:
i mean give me a team with just solid pitchers and i'll consider it cause seattle offense is so bad! pitching wins and all but you can't win without scoring, these guys can't repeatedly shut out playoff teams. maybe not the wc teams but gotta think the better teams they face in playoffs, the o's and yankees of the world have pitchers that will mow down seattle lineup.
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Yanks starters reeling but Cole post season is the best arm out there. He would shut down the M’s for sure. Castillo would be a guaranteed loss, he blows. Sucks they made such a move for an arm and he’s average at best.
 
2daBank said:
i mean give me a team with just solid pitchers and i'll consider it cause seattle offense is so bad! pitching wins and all but you can't win without scoring, these guys can't repeatedly shut out playoff teams. maybe not the wc teams but gotta think the better teams they face in playoffs, the o's and yankees of the world have pitchers that will mow down seattle lineup.
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Julio got that bag and he’s an average MLB player. .618 OPS - could be sent down to AA with that crap!
 
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