Thursday discussion

S

SportsNut

Breaking it down briefly
<TABLE style="WIDTH: 100%" border=0><TBODY><TR class=Column_Date_Headers_Odds><TD colSpan=7>MLB Baseball - Thu 4/23

</TD></TR><TR class=Column_Headers_Odds><TD colSpan=3>Game</TD><TD>Run Line</TD><TD>Money Line</TD><TD>Total Runs</TD><TD>More</TD></TR><TR class=AD1><TD>Thu 4/23</TD><TD>951</TD><TD>Milwaukee Brewers
D. Bush</TD><TD>+1.5 -140</TD><TD>+151</TD><TD>OVER 9.5 +105</TD><TD vAlign=center align=middle rowSpan=2></TD></TR><TR class=AD1><TD>10:05 AM</TD><TD>952</TD><TD>Philadelphia Phillies
C. Hamels</TD><TD>-1.5 +130</TD><TD>-159</TD><TD>UNDER 9.5 -115</TD></TR><TR class=AD2><TD>Thu 4/23</TD><TD>953</TD><TD>New York Mets
L. Hernandez</TD><TD>+1.5 -154</TD><TD>+133</TD><TD>OVER 9.5 -105</TD><TD vAlign=center align=middle rowSpan=2></TD></TR><TR class=AD2><TD>10:40 AM</TD><TD>954</TD><TD>St Louis Cardinals
K. Lohse</TD><TD>-1.5 +144</TD><TD>-141</TD><TD>UNDER 9.5 -105</TD></TR><TR class=AD1><TD>Thu 4/23</TD><TD>955</TD><TD>Cincinnati Reds
A. Harang</TD><TD></TD><TD>+151</TD><TD></TD><TD vAlign=center align=middle rowSpan=2></TD></TR><TR class=AD1><TD>11:20 AM</TD><TD>956</TD><TD>Chicago Cubs
C. Zambrano</TD><TD></TD><TD>-159</TD><TD></TD></TR><TR class=AD2><TD>Thu 4/23</TD><TD>957</TD><TD>Los Angeles Dodgers
C. Billingsley</TD><TD>-1.5 +137</TD><TD>-121</TD><TD>OVER 8.5 -109</TD><TD vAlign=center align=middle rowSpan=2></TD></TR><TR class=AD2><TD>05:05 PM</TD><TD>958</TD><TD>Houston Astros
W. Rodriguez</TD><TD>+1.5 -147</TD><TD>+113</TD><TD>UNDER 8.5 -101</TD></TR><TR class=AD1><TD>Thu 4/23</TD><TD>959</TD><TD>Kansas City Royals
G. Meche</TD><TD>+1.5 -216</TD><TD>+100</TD><TD>OVER 8.5 -104</TD><TD vAlign=center align=middle rowSpan=2></TD></TR><TR class=AD1><TD>09:05 AM</TD><TD>960</TD><TD>Cleveland Indians
AN. Reyes</TD><TD>-1.5 +196</TD><TD>-108</TD><TD>UNDER 8.5 -106</TD></TR><TR class=AD2><TD>Thu 4/23</TD><TD>961</TD><TD>Tampa Bay Rays
J. Shields</TD><TD>+1.5 -207</TD><TD>+102</TD><TD>OVER 7.5 -110</TD><TD vAlign=center align=middle rowSpan=2></TD></TR><TR class=AD2><TD>03:40 PM</TD><TD>962</TD><TD>Seattle Mariners
F. Hernandez</TD><TD>-1.5 +187</TD><TD>-110</TD><TD>UNDER 7.5 +100</TD></TR><TR class=AD1><TD>Thu 4/23</TD><TD>963</TD><TD>Chicago White Sox
B. Colon</TD><TD>-1.5 +131</TD><TD>-120</TD><TD>OVER 10.5 -109</TD><TD vAlign=center align=middle rowSpan=2></TD></TR><TR class=AD1><TD>04:05 PM</TD><TD>964</TD><TD>Baltimore Orioles
A. Eaton</TD><TD>+1.5 -141</TD><TD>+112</TD><TD>UNDER 10.5 -101</TD></TR><TR class=AD2><TD>Thu 4/23</TD><TD>965</TD><TD>Texas Rangers
K. Millwood</TD><TD>-1.5 +142</TD><TD>-116</TD><TD>OVER 9 -103</TD><TD vAlign=center align=middle rowSpan=2></TD></TR><TR class=AD2><TD>04:05 PM</TD><TD>966</TD><TD>Toronto Blue Jays
S. Richmond</TD><TD>+1.5 -152</TD><TD>+108</TD><TD>UNDER 9 -107</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

:cheers:
 
- Interested in CLE 1st 5 ML and ML somewhat suprisingly . Just think when you take lineups into account the SP matchup becomes very narrow . With CLE at home think they find a way to win and lean UNDER for so many reasons....

- Really tough looking at how badly Hamels has dominanted the Brew Crew at home to look at anything else . Still Bush has been solid so far and vs Philly ...

- Mets look terrible lately , Livan has done well in the past at STL though andLohse is tough at home....Under ?

- Just not liking how most of the WBC guys have pitched and trying to fade them so thinking TB with Shields

-Colon pitched better then expected at TB so have to lean the CWS as Eaton hasnt been terrible but is hard to trust

- Millwood is throwing real well but Texas as road chalk ? Richmond suprisingly solid so far as well . Maybe UNDER ? Millwood 1-2 but 14 hits and 3 runs in 23 innings damn solid

-Billingsley has just looked that good and essentially your ace on the hill to avoid the sweep but Wandy is tough at home but noticed Astros seem to SUCK as home dawgs...tough RHP vs mainly RHP lineup

- Edwin Jackson has been very good .....:cheers:





 
Nut,

interesting point about WBC pitchers.. Haven't thought of that before..

Agree about Billinglsey being the tits thus far. Wandy good as well but not the same calibur guy IMO
 
kc @ cle : ill grab me some morning meche for sure. under is a possibility but it's a really low number and it would be worrysome.

mil @ phi : agree with nut. i really want to pound philly ML and RL.

nym @ stl : tipped the mets today and it was a loser. probably should stay away after that but i kinda like the under here. almost shady that the number is so high though after a low scoring game today??

cin @ chc : i don't care if there is a gale force wind blowing in tomorrow ill probably be on the over..
 
Played Cle ML and small stab on the 1st 5 Cle ML. Not sure about the total granted situationally the factors are nice for an under but the pen situation scares me for both really . CLE was an under machine in day games before this year (7-2 over now previously about 59-28 under last 2 years) . Hafner on the bench and granted CLE stats skewed from the 22 run game but still hitting 290+ in day games where KC is .216 with an OBP (.294)that of CLEs BAA....Meche is outsnading but been sort of hit and miss @ CLE.. Meche had some minor trouble pitching on 6 days last year but alot was early and really impossible to weigh when he struggled in general...

KC 6 day games 20 runs 17bb 51Ks 6hrs 19rbi
CLE 10 day games 73 runs 59bb 84 K 21hrs 71rbi 399OBP

hard to fade Meche but should be a close game and despite KC success vs RHP looking for CLE to win the series to even the season series ......

played GS Under 86.5 runs as well ...reluctantly though ..:cheers:
 
CrimsonK said:
Nut,

interesting point about WBC pitchers.. Haven't thought of that before..

Agree about Billinglsey being the tits thus far. Wandy good as well but not the same calibur guy IMO
Click to expand...

I may be wrong about this but seemed like everyone other Johan Santana that I can think of has struggled . King Felix has done okay (14h 8r 11 inn and trailing early inboth his last 2 starts) but also skated some jams(see Minny start) which is fine for a very good/great SP to do its expected . Its just to many jams to be in . Peavy has struggled . Dice K on the DL . Guthrie struggling even Oswalt has ben medicore , even saw guys like Campillo and Crain just went on the DL:shake:
 
to support your point, Volquez and Ceuto weren't exactly right when they returned either...just getting control rounding into form now.

I think there was a hangover, use, prep issue...but I think those effects are about gone.
 
Just to clarify , I do like Hamels based on his past history vs Milw especially with the lineup struggling , clearly though he still apears to be a work in progress though . Which at that price makes it tough for me to have interest in him. At times in day starts Hamels has struggled especially with the long ball which also was an issue with Milw @ Miller Park...so doesnt line up well ...

Actually if you look past 3 seasons Dave Bush has been outstanding in day starts especially compared to his night starts.....

Point is really not interested in playing Philly ....:cheers:

 
<TABLE class=tablehead cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=3 border=0><TBODY><TR class=oddrow align=right><TD align=left width=115>Away</TD><TD>5.56</TD><TD>10</TD><TD>17</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>48</TD><TD>46</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>262.1</TD><TD>297</TD><TD>172</TD><TD>162</TD><TD>36</TD><TD>64</TD><TD>180</TD><TD>.285</TD></TR><TR class=evenrow align=right><TD align=left width=115>Day</TD><TD>4.06</TD><TD>10</TD><TD>9</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>31</TD><TD>28</TD><TD>2</TD><TD>188.1</TD><TD>167</TD><TD>90</TD><TD>85</TD><TD>24</TD><TD>44</TD><TD>143</TD><TD>.236</TD></TR><TR class=oddrow align=right><TD align=left width=115>Grass</TD><TD>4.59</TD><TD>32</TD><TD>31</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>97</TD><TD>91</TD><TD>3</TD><TD>575.0</TD><TD>576</TD><TD>311</TD><TD>293</TD><TD>82</TD><TD>128</TD><TD>405</TD><TD>.260</TD></TR><TR class=evenrow align=right><TD align=left width=115>Home</TD><TD>3.75</TD><TD>23</TD><TD>14</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>50</TD><TD>46</TD><TD>3</TD><TD>319.0</TD><TD>284</TD><TD>141</TD><TD>133</TD><TD>46</TD><TD>66</TD><TD>229</TD><TD>.237</TD></TR><TR class=oddrow align=right><TD align=left width=115>Night</TD><TD>4.81</TD><TD>23</TD><TD>22</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>67</TD><TD>64</TD><TD>1</TD><TD>393.0</TD><TD>414</TD><TD>223</TD><TD>210</TD><TD>58</TD><TD>86</TD><TD>266</TD><TD>.270</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

Thats past 3 seasons for Bush and granted Home vs away splits are drastic.

<TABLE class=tablehead cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=3 border=0><TBODY><TR class=evenrow align=right><TD align=left width=115>Day</TD><TD>3.84</TD><TD>4</TD><TD>3</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>10</TD><TD>9</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>61.0</TD><TD>39</TD><TD>28</TD><TD>26</TD><TD>10</TD><TD>17</TD><TD>43</TD><TD>.180</TD></TR><TR class=oddrow align=right><TD align=left width=115>Night</TD><TD>4.36</TD><TD>5</TD><TD>7</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>21</TD><TD>20</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>124.0</TD><TD>124</TD><TD>64</TD><TD>60</TD><TD>19</TD><TD>31</TD><TD>66</TD><TD>.258</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

Bush is usally great with the bases empty but seems to be the king of allowing multi run , crucial HRs . Look at 2008 chances are alot of day home starts but BAA was fucking .180 and yet his ERA was 3.84 because he allowed 10 Hrs in 61 inn but also out of 39hits (25% of hits allowed were HRs !!) ..so long ball always hurts him and well Citizens bank vs aton of LHBs is not exactly what he needs to be seeing .....we even see it in his home vs away spilts

<TABLE class=tablehead cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=3 border=0><TBODY><TR class=evenrow align=right><TD align=left width=115>Home</TD><TD>3.50</TD><TD>6</TD><TD>4</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>17</TD><TD>16</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>108.0</TD><TD>92</TD><TD>46</TD><TD>42</TD><TD>16</TD><TD>23</TD><TD>65</TD><TD>.228</TD></TR><TR class=oddrow align=right><TD align=left width=115>Away</TD><TD>5.14</TD><TD>3</TD><TD>6</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>14</TD><TD>13</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>77.0</TD><TD>71</TD><TD>46</TD><TD>44</TD><TD>13</TD><TD>25</TD><TD>44</TD><TD>.241</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

He allowed just a 234 BAA last season and .24 on the road but 5.14 ERA ......

Point is he pitches alot better then he gets credit for but to oftenmelts down in crucial spots allowing not just the big hit but the bad HR .....

:cheers:
 
GrumpOnBoard said:
to support your point, Volquez and Ceuto weren't exactly right when they returned either...just getting control rounding into form now.

I think there was a hangover, use, prep issue...but I think those effects are about gone.
Click to expand...

Think it varies for some guys . Think to many of them were unprepared to throw real innings so early in the spring which really is there fault . Also though the inactivity can be the worst thing for a SP . Especially once you get your arm in shape then dont use it and go back to ST and they expect you to be ready to go . Which some of the guys like Reds duo may have faced (inactivity) ....

:shake:



 
Done very well with this umpire and against this team. Think Detroit is clear action. Massive pen advantage tonight and a forced callup of a clearly not ready Palmer. Detroit has lost 1 series this season. They are 3-7 last 10 against Greinke tomorrow. They dislike the Angels who are hurting in every way possible currently and I expect them to step on them.
Anaheim is 4-4 at home this year. 2 wins by Weaver,1 by Mosely and 1 by Saunders. Expecting victory today with a weakened line up, no pen and a in by form minor leaguer with bad historey in the majors is very optimistic.
 
Last edited:
Not at all clear what to do with Toronto. Started off thinking to fade Millwood off such a strong game at a site he has done poorly at but the great start was a continuation of some very good ones and after the total none support last time it seems tough to bet against him. Texas still might be looking ahead to Baltimore---?
 
Last edited:
Tough game @ Tor for sure . Millwood is a tough guy to decipher with such inconsistency over the years but right now he is at his peak . So tend to dismiss some of his 07 starts @ Tor and look more at the ones where he was better ...I just see Richmond as a guy who will struggle vs LHB but the Rangers LH are not doing much damage yet ....not sure what to do with it if anything ..lean Texas but nothing more then that ..Jays pen is a bit of mess with Ryan probably losing the closers job and Frasor went 2 innings yesterday . Mess in the sense of defined roles .

clearly agree with DET sentiments ..:cheers:
 
SportsNut said:
Tough game @ Tor for sure . Millwood is a tough guy to decipher with such inconsistency over the years but right now he is at his peak . So tend to dismiss some of his 07 starts @ Tor and look more at the ones where he was better ...I just see Richmond as a guy who will struggle vs LHB but the Rangers LH are not doing much damage yet ....not sure what to do with it if anything ..lean Texas but nothing more then that ..Jays pen is a bit of mess with Ryan probably losing the closers job and Frasor went 2 innings yesterday . Mess in the sense of defined roles .

clearly agree with DET sentiments ..:cheers:
Click to expand...
fans here in toronto want him out...4 opportunities and 2 blown saves might be too early, assignment would be good, not sure how it would affect bj, but the fans in toronto want accardo to take over the role...Downs is the perfect set up guy for this team...frasor had his opportunity as a closer, but he sucked...jays can still go with: camp, carlson, downs, and tallet for tonight...jays pen has gotten off to a slow start, not the same one we saw last year..in a small park like the dome in toronto, if he leaves anything hanging texas will ripp into the ball..richmond has shown some promise, but the extra days off has to make you wonder how well he starts..jays offense above expectations right now....but much of the offense is coming outside of rios and wells, if those 2 could get their act straight jays could do more damage..
 
Personally dont see Scott Downs as a closer so certianly echo your thoughts on that . Frasor is throwing well but agree as well better to have Accardo as the closer with him as the RH setup guy .

Think I am just passing on this game like the under a tad but again just thoughts ..

good stuff..:shake:
 
SportsNut said:
Personally dont see Scott Downs as a closer so certianly echo your thoughts on that . Frasor is throwing well but agree as well better to have Accardo as the closer with him as the RH setup guy .

Think I am just passing on this game like the under a tad but again just thoughts ..

good stuff..:shake:
Click to expand...
ask and you shall receive: ryan on the DL
 
gsro said:
ask and you shall receive: ryan on the DL
Click to expand...

I'm not seeing this anywhere. I heard that he was going to be sitting down with Cito and JP to discuss his health, but I haven't seen/heard anywhere that he's on the DL. :shake:
 
Blue Jays put Ryan and Romero disabled list
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Toronto Blue Jays pitcher B.J. Ryan, right, and catcher Raul Chavez celebrate their win against the Oakland Athletics, April 19, 2009. Ryan has posted an earned run average of 11.12 so far this season.


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Shaky Ryan makes Jays work overtime
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Toronto Blue Jays batter Kevin Millar, left, and teammates Aaron Hill and Jose Bautista, right, celebrate after Millar drove in the winning run against the Texas Rangers during the 11th inning of their MLB American League baseball game in Toronto, April 22, 2009.
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Apr 23, 2009 05:20 PM
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(18)
<!-- ARTICLE CONTENT -->The Toronto Blue Jays have placed reliever B.J. Ryan on the 15-day disabled list with tightness in his left neck muscles.
Ryan has appeared in six games this season, posting a 1-0 record with two saves and an 11.12 ERA. His last appearance was Wednesday night, when he pitched one inning and allowed three runs against the Texas Rangers.
He joins left-handed pitcher Ricky Romero, who was put on the DL retroactive to April 20. Romero has a strained muscle in his right side.
Romero is 2-0 with a 1.71 ERA in three starts. He has struck out 13 batters and walked only four in 21 innings.
Toronto's first-round pick in the 2005 draft, Romero reached the major leagues for the first time this season, winning a spot in the starting rotation with a strong finish to spring training.
 
Certified said:
sport - what u got in store for the evening games? you playing any nuba?
Click to expand...

Nothing really strong or standing out ..basically have these

Rays ML , small Mariners' TT under 3.5

either Under 9.5 or 1st 5 inn Under @ Toronto

LAD ML ..kinda expecting just a 1run win though

Tigers ML

only prop I might play is No score 1st Inn @ Toronto as well

played the Bulls @ -2.5 and lean Mavs , under Bulls ..:cheers:
 
SN, nice hit on cleveland game ML.

my plays: TB ML (-105) and under 7.5 (-110)
cws/bal Over 10.5 (-120)
tex/tor Under 9.5 (-105)
 
also have the GS under pending so lean mostly unders on each game ....even might add CSW under 10.5 as one team is bound to struggle offensively IMO..
 
sn, im really thinking that eaton cannot keep the sox down. i thought colon might possibly be str8 but im worried about the betting public and certain lines moves.. think both teams could get 5 easy.
 
jimbo1227 said:
SN, nice hit on cleveland game ML.

my plays: TB ML (-105) and under 7.5 (-110)
cws/bal Over 10.5 (-120)
tex/tor Under 9.5 (-105)
Click to expand...

tx bro ..felt silly for 7.5 innings though fading Meche ...actually added Milw ML last second and that Bush research paid off ..:cheers:

GL today
 
jimbo1227 said:
sn, im really thinking that eaton cannot keep the sox down. i thought colon might possibly be str8 but im worried about the betting public and certain lines moves.. think both teams could get 5 easy.
Click to expand...

Its definetly a guessing game . You thought COlon would pitch well last time in TB and he did but had the one bad inning so think he is on the right track. Really could see Batimore struggling here and thinking they could only get 3 runs , after the 4 hole the lineup is real thin IMO...Eaton havent seen him a throw a pitch but he needs to avoid the big inning . He was 1 out away vs TB from allowing no runs despite a ton of baserunners . The plus thing I see from him is he is striking out a good amount of batters . So his stuff cant be bad just must be inconsistent imo....

Pure stab but its mostly about Balt lineup...:cheers:
 
i agree totally with your thoughts. i've watched a lot of colon so far and his pitches are ridiculously sharp. some of the heaviest movement i've seen from anyone this year. i wanted to take white sox ML and RL because i first thought balty would only get 3 but the line kinda tells me balty will bring some bats and colon could be on the decline in form.
 
Playing Baltimore ml. Why. First I read a rare pick by a columnist in the Baltimore Sun picking Eaton which is rare. Then I looked at last 10 for both pitchers away and home and Eaton was clearly better. Than I looked at Baltimore at home vsa WS. Last 4 home series they end with a win. Than Iooked at WS next game. Staff ace vs Toronto. Toronto almost swept them last year. They got 1 win last season. Looked at the relievers left for this game and then considered how little support Guthrie got yesterday. Lets see what happens.
 
can't disagree with the balty play but i personally think it will be because of the offense, not eaton. GL tuck.
 
tuck321 said:
Playing Baltimore ml. Why. First I read a rare pick by a columnist in the Baltimore Sun picking Eaton which is rare. Then I looked at last 10 for both pitchers away and home and Eaton was clearly better. Than I looked at Baltimore at home vsa WS. Last 4 home series they end with a win. Than Iooked at WS next game. Staff ace vs Toronto. Toronto almost swept them last year. They got 1 win last season. Looked at the relievers left for this game and then considered how little support Guthrie got yesterday. Lets see what happens.
Click to expand...

i agree with you tuck, and i'm really debating on this one.... gl bro
 
lad @ hou : i personally love the over here. think both starters get knocked around for the first time this year. definately agree with nut that this is a 1 run game and i guess slight lean to dodgy but marginal because it is just because they are the better team but that doesnt mean they win this individual game.

det @ laa : pretty wild game yesterday and somehow i was never too worried about my detroit bet. i like the over more than anything but as far as the side goes i think edwin could get roughed up and value is with the angels in my perspective.
 
Well I played some Balt +1.5 RL as well because it does look like they dont mind CWS money . Every run Eaton has allowed this season minus the 3run Hr has come with 2 outs so he always almost out of the jam ...good stuff Tuck wasnt unexpected to see that post ...just not a fan of how Bal has scored ..tex series doesnt count because runs just flow there and Yanks 1st 2 games those 2 couldnt get anyone out and walks were more damaging ...other 10 games for them

2 5 6 3 8 (all in 1 inning essentially) 4 1 1 10 2 runs scored
 
interesting to see how EJax does here having some trouble in the past vs LAA but Vlads absence helps. See Vladand Matthews manage to go 6-6 against him last year . Vlad out and cam Matthews somehow duplicate that?? Abreu 3/21 career but some of the guys solid splits ...different EJax though so tough to figure..

be back later if I have anything to add . think we covered it all not much if anything jumping out ...

GL
 
That was about as ugly a 1st Half I have ever seen..

Trying to figure out this last game but dont see much reason to pass on Det . Somewhat concerned because I expected Home teams ML prop to win today and currently its +3 ...that kept me thankfully from playing Texas or CSW earlier ...

:cheers:
 
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