Thursday Discussion Thread

VirginiaCavs

VirginiaCavs

CTG Super Moderator
Staff member
Apr 28 Thu 2022

11:35 AM
901San Diego PadresN. Martinez -R-1½
+145		-102O 8½
+100
902Cincinnati RedsT. Mahle -R+1½
-165		-108U 8½
-120
11:35 AM
903Milwaukee BrewersF. Peralta -R-1½
-106		-165O 7½
-105
904Pittsburgh PiratesJ. Quintana -L+1½
-114		+152U 7½
-115
12:05 PM
905Colorado RockiesA. Gomber -L+1½
-120		+176O 7½
-115
906Philadelphia PhilliesZ. Wheeler -R-1½
+100		-192U 7½
-105
12:05 PM
907Miami MarlinsT. Rogers -L-1½
+102		-143O 8
-115
908Washington NationalsP. Corbin -L+1½
-122		+132U 8
-105
12:05 PM
913Baltimore OriolesB. Zimmermann -L+1½
-107		+196O 8
-120
914New York YankeesJ. Taillon -R-1½
-113		-215U 8
+100
12:10 PM
917Detroit TigersT. Skubal -L+1½
-165		+125O 7
-120
918Minnesota TwinsB. Ober -R-1½
+145		-135U 7
+100
01:05 PM
919Houston AstrosJ. Verlander -R-1½
-106		-160O 8
-110
920Texas RangersM. Perez -L+1½
-114		+148U 8
-110
01:10 PM
921Kansas City RoyalsB. Keller -R+1½
-143		+157O 7
+110
922Chicago White SoxM. Kopech -R-1½
+123		-170U 7
-130
02:07 PM
923Boston Red SoxG. Whitlock -R+1½
-145		+137O 8
-110
924Toronto Blue JaysA. Manoah -R-1½
+125		-148U 8
-110
03:07 PM
925Cleveland GuardiansC. Quantrill -R+1½
-145		+136O 8½
-110
926Los Angeles AngelsR. Detmers -L-1½
+125		-147U 8½
-110
06:20 PM
909Chicago CubsD. Smyly -L+1½
-125		+157O 8½
-105
910Atlanta BravesK. Wright -R-1½
+105		-170U 8½
-115
06:45 PM
911Arizona DiamondbacksH. Castellanos -R+1½
-140		+152O 7½
-105
912St. Louis CardinalsD. Hudson -R-1½
+120		-165U 7½
-115
 
Waiting on k props for peralta and Skubal, I could maybe convince myself to play Corbin if they come with a low enough number.

Wright came out at 5.5 and got hit to 6.5 quick, I wouldn’t touch him needing 7, scrubbies not striking out a lot.
 
Interesting tidbit in Cincy, Mahle has never pitched to this catcher before, Mark Kolozsvary. Not sure how that plays into anything. I know Mahle is better at home but statcast suggests he's tinkering with some other pitches, while maintaining the same K rate and walking a little more. I don't know if I want a catcher making his 2nd start under these conditions. To Kolozsvary's credit, he caught Lodolo in his first start as catcher ever 4 days ago where he outdueled Wainwright and went 5.2 7K 0BB 1ER. Mahle has been with the HP Ump 2x and had great outings each time.

Can't imagine Nick Martinez having too much trouble with this line-up though, and I get they're going for the sweep which is always tough. Padres hit on the road, and own the league's best BB rate on the road. +104 Padres seems reasonable.
 
Last edited:
peelpub94 said:
Interesting tidbit in Cincy, Mahle has never pitched to this catcher before, Mark Kolozsvary. Not sure how that plays into anything. I know Mahle is better at home but statcast suggests he's tinkering with some other pitches, while maintaining the same K rate and walking a little more. I don't know if I want a catcher making his 2nd start under these conditions. To Kolozsvary's credit, he caught Lodolo in his first start as catcher ever 4 days ago where he outdueled Wainwright and went 5.2 7K 0BB 1ER. Mahle has been with the HP Ump 2x and had great outings each time.

Can't imagine Nick Martinez having too much trouble with this line-up though, and I get they're going for the sweep which is always tough. Padres hit on the road, and own the league's best BB rate on the road. +104 Padres seems reasonable.
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i wanna say Mahle has historically been worse during the day and been blown up in his day starts this year. im not real sure wtf they been doing with reds lines the last few series? they served up cards really cheap the 1st 2 games of series then made cards way bigger favs in gm3 where they struggle to sweep and had the worst pitching matchup of series considering how much waino had historically struggled in cincy (they have always seemed to have a pretty good bead on his curve). prices just havnt made much sense, now they favs with 3 stinking wins on the year? i dont love the idea of backing Martinez as i think that 4.30 era he sporting is low considering his k/bb ratio, hard hit rate, the amount of balls guys been barreling up on him, despite that i agree it pads or nothing at that price, dunno how the hell anyone can play reds without getting +140 or more regardless of starting pitcher matchup? they have 3 stinking wins! 1 of which was a freebie as cards tend to give gm3 away after winning 1st 2 of a series.
 
i was really hoping they would open Peralta k's at 5.5 but they came with 6.5 ev money. i think it totally justified was just hoping his poor start to the season would get us a little discount here, no such luck. That said i still think over 6.5 the play, pirates striking out almost 30% their ab's vs right handed pitching this year. Peralta a historically slow starter to the season which was probably amplified this year with the shortened spring but he looked much better his last time out, he on his best rest, been historically better in the day, he had 28 k's in 23 innings vs pirates last season. Really just a matter of how many innings he goes, he went 5 last time out in philly band box which was his best start of the season, i think it reasonable to expect him to go 6 innings in this start in which case i think he should get 7 punch outs minimum. Just gotta get back to throwing 1st pitch strikes and he should mow this lineup down. Woodruff wasnt good in his start this series and still managed 6k's in 4 innings of work, Freddy gives us 5+ innings i like him to cash.
 
I'm on Pirates but not wild about it. Really nice break down on Freddy P. I'm actually pretty amped for the early match ups today.
 
2daBank said:
i wanna say Mahle has historically been worse during the day and been blown up in his day starts this year. im not real sure wtf they been doing with reds lines the last few series? they served up cards really cheap the 1st 2 games of series then made cards way bigger favs in gm3 where they struggle to sweep and had the worst pitching matchup of series considering how much waino had historically struggled in cincy (they have always seemed to have a pretty good bead on his curve). prices just havnt made much sense, now they favs with 3 stinking wins on the year? i dont love the idea of backing Martinez as i think that 4.30 era he sporting is low considering his k/bb ratio, hard hit rate, the amount of balls guys been barreling up on him, despite that i agree it pads or nothing at that price, dunno how the hell anyone can play reds without getting +140 or more regardless of starting pitcher matchup? they have 3 stinking wins! 1 of which was a freebie as cards tend to give gm3 away after winning 1st 2 of a series.
Click to expand...
Think Martinez's FIP is above 7
 
these pricks, was hoping the awful start to year by Corbin would get us a 3.5 k number but once again they came with pretty much where i had it wrote down!! this a huge case of do we trust him at all? he pitches well enough to stay in the game for 5 innings or more he will get this, despite his ridiculously bad start to the year he still sporting his best k per 9 number since '19, that with the lowest swinging strike rate of his entire career and his velo being a tick down (very tough to judge the significance of that with him since he seems to be a tick up or down every other year with not much difference in the results). Fish striking out 33% of the time vs lefties this year while sporting a .625ish ops vs lhp, small sample but pretty much in line with their numbers vs lhp last year. the 7.5 total kinda says to me he gonna be better today, surely he hasnt fallen this far off a cliff? He outta be plenty fresh after getting shelled by san fran last time out and not even lasting 2 innings, lol. His one decent start this year was during the day.. not sure im willing to play him with the extra k like i am Peralta? on the other side they have a 5.5 for Rodgers and id actually lean under, nats only striking out 19% of their ab's vs lefties this year and his k/bb rate has not been good thus far.
 
Ryno14 said:
You could go Reds TT again. They've been swinging the bat pretty well last couple.
Click to expand...

that lineup is pretty ugly but pham been starting to swing it better this series, moose back helps., i think the waino start sunday got them kinda keyed onto off speed stuff and martinez gonna throw more of that than fastballs. over 3.5 i think is def the way to go. good idea!!
 
peelpub94 said:
Over 8 probably isn't bad. Ump is 0-2 O/U fwiw.
Click to expand...

i been incredibly lazy with umps this year, im usually all bout them, i have a whole freaking notebook dedicated to them and have hardly even opened it this year, lol. doing all these NBA player props has taken lot of my time.
 
I am desperate but I really like the Red Sox today - so I'm doing a YOLO on them and White Sox 2 teamer
 
2daBank said:
surely they wont have that many full time guys finish below the mendoza come end the year? right? lol
Click to expand...
Pretty sure I either saw on here or the Reddit baseball forum that this is the lowest batting average for the league in like 80 seasons so far?
 
King Slap said:
I am desperate but I really like the Red Sox today - so I'm doing a YOLO on them and White Sox 2 teamer
Click to expand...

what the hell been going on with chisox offense? yesterday was 1st time in last 11 they scored more than 4 runs and they only hit 4 once in that stretch!!!
 
2daBank said:
what the hell been going on with chisox offense? yesterday was 1st time in last 11 they scored more than 4 runs and they only hit 4 once in that stretch!!!
Click to expand...
Few injuries. Not exactly the sexiest line up.

f7f431db3f4ed78cdbd92bb3393a2c07.png
 
2daBank said:
what the hell been going on with chisox offense? yesterday was 1st time in last 11 they scored more than 4 runs and they only hit 4 once in that stretch!!!
Click to expand...
Well this isn't good since I just took out an advance and took them
 
Teapot9 said:
Yea this ain’t the same TLR unfortunately
Click to expand...

man, everyone hated those cards teams he managed, they were so chippy!! threw at guys, bitched and moaned bout everything, dave duncan was such a great pitching coach, he obviously not with him any longer.
 
King Slap said:
Well this isn't good since I just took out an advance and took them
Click to expand...

i havnt capped it or anything yet, certainly not saying they a bad play, i just know they have not been scoring runs for shit, obviously that lineup missing lot of guys but maybe yesterday get them going?

far as red sox i just dunno how stretched out whitlock is? he been absolute filth but far as i know never been a starter? he was fantastic for 4 innings vs rays last time out.
 
2daBank said:
i havnt capped it or anything yet, certainly not saying they a bad play, i just know they have not been scoring runs for shit, obviously that lineup missing lot of guys but maybe yesterday get them going?

far as red sox i just dunno how stretched out whitlock is? he been absolute filth but far as i know never been a starter? he was fantastic for 4 innings vs rays last time out.
Click to expand...
I took them strictly on Whitlock cause I've never seen him start before. Cora taking moves from the GM who taught Kevin Cash to manage like that in Tampa
 
King Slap said:
I probably should have done some research first instead of saying fuggit and going with my gut
Click to expand...

meh.. if you grinding mlb every day sure, capping and making your own prices the way to go. taking a shot out the blue probably doesnt matter much. single baseball games pretty much impossible to predict., lol. take last sunday cards/reds game, cards have raked lefties all year, were facing a left handed kid who hadnt been very good as of yet in the bigs and he mowed them down for 6+ innings!! waino was predictably bad but you couldnt have seen the reds pitcher coming!
 
King Slap said:
I took them strictly on Whitlock cause I've never seen him start before. Cora taking moves from the GM who taught Kevin Cash to manage like that in Tampa
Click to expand...

far as i know last time out was the 1st time he ever started, it was pretty impressive he was able to go 4 innings.
 
King Slap said:
Oh that's interesting I didn't know he started once before. Won't lie that actually makes me more confident now
Click to expand...

he mowed tampa down for 4 innings, 13 batters faced 7k's, 1 hit allowed, no walks, he has 3 pitches so he should be able to make the transition, just a question of how many innings he can go against a pretty strong jays lineup? of course jays throwing out their stud pitcher also.
 
Well I need this more than anything or I'll be forced to suck dick on Camp Street starting tomorrow so, be back after both games (hopefully)
 
King Slap said:
Well I need this more than anything or I'll be forced to suck dick on Camp Street starting tomorrow so, be back after both games (hopefully)
Click to expand...

hope you cash buddy, if it doesnt work out and you forced into prostitution hit up @Teapot9 , he can probably give you some pointers!!
 
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