Thursday Discussion Thread

VirginiaCavs

VirginiaCavs

CTG Super Moderator
Staff member
Apr 29 Thu 2021

12:05 PM
959New York YankeesJ. Montgomery -L-1½
-115		-175O 9½
-110
960Baltimore OriolesJ. Lopez -R+1 Markets+1½
-105		+161U 9½
-110
12:10 PM
961Oakland AthleticsC. Bassitt -R-1½
+150		-103O 8
+100
962Tampa Bay RaysS. McClanahan -L+1 Markets+1½
-170		-107U 8
-120
12:15 PM
951Philadelphia PhilliesA. Nola -R-1½
+130		-130O 7
-105
952St. Louis CardinalsK. Kim -L+1 Markets+1½
-150		+120U 7
-115
6:40 PM
955Los Angeles DodgersT. Bauer -R-1½
+110		-152O 7½
+100
956Milwaukee BrewersF. Peralta -R+1½
-130		+140U 7½
-120
7:05 PM
965Boston Red SoxM. Perez -L-1½
+125		-120O 8½
-115
966Texas RangersK. Gibson -R+1½
-145		+110U 8½
-105
7:10 PM
967Detroit TigersM. Boyd -L+1½
-155		+136O 8
-110
968Chicago White SoxD. Cease -R+1 Markets-1½
+135		-147U 8
-110
8:40 PM
957Colorado RockiesA. Senzatela -R+1½
-155		+135O 9
-110
958Arizona DiamondbacksL. Weaver -R-1½
+135		-146U 9
-110
 
GWarner27 said:
leans, but man this card is ugly and i'm not sure i want anything

April 29KIM
bauer
senzatela
bassitt
GIBSON
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I thought same thing when I browsed over it earlier, I’ll take another quick look in morning but might be a off day for me. Luckily we got what been the best bet in the NBA going 2marro night fading houston rockets 1st half/2nd qrtr! Might just load up a little extra on that if I can’t find any mlb plays.
 
I could see potential Ff unders in St. Louis and milw. Just guessing right now tho, havnt dug into any the numbers, weather, umps.
 
I’m gonna go ahead and say it. Red Sox look kinda cheap like kc did on wed. Rangers not hitting lefties, sox mashing, just looks like better team with favorable matchup and laying a pretty low number. Been having little success taking these smaller favs that seem underpriced recently, trying to keep the plays diverse!
 
2daBank said:
I’m gonna go ahead and say it. Red Sox look kinda cheap like kc did on wed. Rangers not hitting lefties, sox mashing, just looks like better team with favorable matchup and laying a pretty low number. Been having little success taking these smaller favs that seem underpriced recently, trying to keep the plays diverse!
Click to expand...

i recant this statement. Lol. This price makes a lot more sense when you consider how bad Perez has been and how incredible Gibson been since that ugly start to open year in Kc. Since that game Gibson has thrown 27 innings only allowing 2er with a 22:5 k/bb rate. The obvious question with Gibson is that really sustainable for him? He a serviceable pitcher but nothing he doing sticks out as any different from the average guy he been most his career! I gotta think one the best hitting teams in the league this season might just be the team to bring him back to reality a bit!! Have Sox bats cooled off or did they just run into a couple really good mets pitchers? I tend to think the latter and they do some damage vs Gibson.

the bigger problem is wtf we gonna get out of Perez? He been pretty awful going back to last year, he hasn’t made it thru 4 innings either of his last 2 starts! That said he actually has a few decent indicators working for him, the velo he had lost last year has ticked back up much closer to his ‘19 numbers when he was a decent pitcher. His walks are up which a big problem since he not a strikeout pitcher but his babip is also sitting at a all time high for him despite the fact he doing a good job limiting hard contact. It’s not like we need him to be a ace here, if he can compete with Gibson for 5ish innings Sox have a significant edge in the pen, rangers among the worst teams in baseball hitting lefties so that sure seems doable.

I guess the question is at -115 is it worth taking a leap of faith On the fact Perez should be a little better than he has recently and Gibson certainly not as good as he been pitching his last 4 starts? I mean we get the vastly better lineup and the better pen, if Perez comes anywhere close to matching Gibson (good or bad) then I stick to my previous statement that Red Sox seem cheap. Unless you convinced Gibson has done something to go from a guy who has allowed at least 1hr per 9 and a hr/fb rate that never been lower than 14.5% (and been ovsr 20% the last 2 years) to a guy who hasn’t allowed 1 home run all season in 5 starts!! (Despite no noticeable changes to pitch mix or quality of pitches). Then ya gotta believe Sox worth a play at this price that clearly this low in part cause of some unsustainable factors!!
 
another cloudy damp day here in stl. Nothing that will effect the game being played, another day there won’t be any cheapy home runs, to hit one out you will have to earn it cause ball won’t be carrying. Nola has totally dominated cards throughout his career including a complete game gem in Philly a few weeks back. I just don’t see how cards do much of anything vs him? He has a sub 2era vs us in his career, goldy and arenado have never done much vs him. If cards can get him out the game after 6 innings and actually scoring a run or 2 they will have done a fantastic job.

That doesn’t mean cards can’t win. Yes Phils got to Kim in Philly but that was his 1st start of the season and he was clearly having issues locating his fastball. Even in that start his slider was dominating as he get a bunch of swings and misses and 4k’s in those 3 innings of work. Last time out against reds the control was much better as he went 5.2 without a walk and striking out 8 more wit that filthy slider. I’d expect him to look even better here as he continues to round into form after getting a late start to his season. This has all the makings of a pitchers duel with Kim sporting a 1.14 era in his short career at Busch! My only small concern would be no yadi behind the plate and he has caught almost all Kim innings. As long as that not a issue then I don’t expect there much chance either pitcher allows more than 1-2 runs while both working well into the 6th-7th innings. Ff under 3.5 seems like easily the best play in this one.
 
I think I like the Cubs tonight but I really don't know if I can actually hit submit. Might be one of those where I bet and just turn off the phone and watch the draft.
 
Ryno14 said:
I think I like the Cubs tonight but I really don't know if I can actually hit submit. Might be one of those where I bet and just turn off the phone and watch the draft.
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the nfl draft tonight? Holy shit. I havnt been paying attention to anything besides mlb network the last week, didn’t even realize! Lol. Any good draft props you like?
 
2daBank said:
the nfl draft tonight? Holy shit. I havnt been paying attention to anything besides mlb network the last week, didn’t even realize! Lol. Any good draft props you like?
Click to expand...

Super tough draft for me to figure out. I'm sure I'll take a few things, but nothing in yet. I expect more things to actually bet on continue to get added throughout the day as well. Looked last night and seemed light on options still.
 
Ryno14 said:
Super tough draft for me to figure out. I'm sure I'll take a few things, but nothing in yet. I expect more things to actually bet on continue to get added throughout the day as well. Looked last night and seemed light on options still.
Click to expand...
Only thing I'm fairly certain about the draft tonight is that Da Bears will somehow find a way to screw it up.
 
Oh my fuvkinb god. I can not believe what just happened in stl! Cards get 2 men on in 5th and they decide to pitch hit for Kim, shitty I thought but oh well it can’t hit a baseball Matt Carpenter! This cock sucker closes his eyes when he swings for Christ sakes and after Nola shuts us down for 4.2 innings this Jack off runs into one just to spite me I’m sure! I was already counting my money with that one, gotta be kidding me. Might be my worse loss ever considering who hit it out! Seriously woulda been less surprised if the pitcher did it!!! I’ve talked so bad about this guy and he just paid me back! Unreal!!
 
2daBank said:
Oh my fuvkinb god. I can not believe what just happened in stl! Cards get 2 men on in 5th and they decide to pitch hit for Kim, shitty I thought but oh well it can’t hit a baseball Matt Carpenter! This cock sucker closes his eyes when he swings for Christ sakes and after Nola shuts us down for 4.2 innings this Jack off runs into one just to spite me I’m sure! I was already counting my money with that one, gotta be kidding me. Might be my worse loss ever considering who hit it out! Seriously woulda been less surprised if the pitcher did it!!! I’ve talked so bad about this guy and he just paid me back! Unreal!!
Click to expand...
Add it to the long list of F5 beats this year it seems. I'm done with them for the foreseeable future. Forcing myself to go back to baseball sides which I've historically done much better with.
 
Ryno14 said:
Add it to the long list of F5 beats this year it seems. I'm done with them for the foreseeable future. Forcing myself to go back to baseball sides which I've historically done much better with.
Click to expand...

ff unders the biggest reason I’m having a good year, I can handle a few here and there, just can’t believe that guy got me!! I even said to myself “why pitch hit and take Kim out if you just putting carp up there!!”””, fuck, lol. If only his pitch count was little lower maybe he stays in? I was kinda surprised they did it.
 
Man, that one shocked me. I thought since 2nd inning it was cashing. Nola was cruising too. Woulda never guessed that shit in a million years, prob last home run that fucker ever hits. Lol.
 
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