Thursday 03/20/14 NBA discussion thread

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[TD="colspan: 8"][h=4]NBA BASKETBALL BASKETBALL - THU 3/20[/h][/TD]
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[TR="class: linesColumns"]
[TD="bgcolor: #000032, colspan: 4, align: center"]GAME[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #000032, align: center"]HANDICAP[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #000032, align: center"]MONEY LINE[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #000032, align: center"]TOTAL POINTS[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #000032, align: center"]MORE[/TD]
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[TR="class: linesAlt1"]
[TD="class: linesDate, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]Thu 3/20[/TD]
[TD="class: linesRotNumBold, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]701[/TD]
[TD="class: linesTeam, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]Oklahoma City Thunder[/TD]
[TD="class: linesScore, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"][/TD]
[TD="class: linesSpread, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]-9.5 2.020[/TD]
[TD="class: linesMLine, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"] 1.222[/TD]
[TD="class: linesTotals, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]Over 200 1.926[/TD]
[TD="class: linesMore, bgcolor: #E6EEFB, align: center"][/TD]
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[TD="bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]04:05 PM[/TD]
[TD="class: linesRotNumBold, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]702[/TD]
[TD="class: linesTeam, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]Cleveland Cavaliers[/TD]
[TD="class: linesScore, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"][/TD]
[TD="class: linesSpread, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]+9.5 1.885[/TD]
[TD="class: linesMLine, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"] 4.850[/TD]
[TD="class: linesTotals, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]Under 200 1.980[/TD]
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[TR="class: linesAlt2"]
[TD="class: linesDate, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"]Thu 3/20[/TD]
[TD="class: linesRotNumBold, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"]703[/TD]
[TD="class: linesTeam, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"]Minnesota Timberwolves[/TD]
[TD="class: linesScore, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"][/TD]
[TD="class: linesSpread, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"]+8 1.909[/TD]
[TD="class: linesMLine, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"] 4.040[/TD]
[TD="class: linesTotals, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"]Over 213.5 1.926[/TD]
[TD="class: linesMore, bgcolor: #C1D2EE, align: center"][/TD]
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[TD="bgcolor: #C1D2EE"]05:05 PM[/TD]
[TD="class: linesRotNumBold, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"]704[/TD]
[TD="class: linesTeam, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"]Houston Rockets[/TD]
[TD="class: linesScore, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"][/TD]
[TD="class: linesSpread, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"]-8 2.000[/TD]
[TD="class: linesMLine, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"] 1.287[/TD]
[TD="class: linesTotals, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"]Under 213.5 1.980[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: linesAlt1"]
[TD="class: linesDate, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]Thu 3/20[/TD]
[TD="class: linesRotNumBold, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]705[/TD]
[TD="class: linesTeam, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]Washington Wizards[/TD]
[TD="class: linesScore, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"][/TD]
[TD="class: linesSpread, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]+4.5 1.917[/TD]
[TD="class: linesMLine, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"] 2.620[/TD]
[TD="class: linesTotals, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]Over 207 1.935[/TD]
[TD="class: linesMore, bgcolor: #E6EEFB, align: center"][/TD]
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[TR="class: linesAlt1"]
[TD="bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]07:05 PM[/TD]
[TD="class: linesRotNumBold, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]706[/TD]
[TD="class: linesTeam, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]Portland Trail Blazers [/TD]
[TD="class: linesScore, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"][/TD]
[TD="class: linesSpread, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]-4.5 1.990[/TD]
[TD="class: linesMLine, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"] 1.556[/TD]
[TD="class: linesTotals, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]Under 207 1.971[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: linesAlt2"]
[TD="class: linesDate, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"]Thu 3/20[/TD]
[TD="class: linesRotNumBold, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"]707[/TD]
[TD="class: linesTeam, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"]Milwaukee Bucks [/TD]
[TD="class: linesScore, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"][/TD]
[TD="class: linesSpread, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"]+13.5 1.909[/TD]
[TD="class: linesMLine, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"] 10.250[/TD]
[TD="class: linesTotals, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"]Over 204.5 1.917[/TD]
[TD="class: linesMore, bgcolor: #C1D2EE, align: center"][/TD]
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[TR="class: linesAlt2"]
[TD="bgcolor: #C1D2EE"]07:35 PM[/TD]
[TD="class: linesRotNumBold, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"]708[/TD]
[TD="class: linesTeam, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"]Golden State Warriors[/TD]
[TD="class: linesScore, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"][/TD]
[TD="class: linesSpread, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"]-13.5 2.000[/TD]
[TD="class: linesMLine, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"] 1.077[/TD]
[TD="class: linesTotals, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"]Under 204.5 1.990[/TD]
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[tuck321]

Some interest in a half time bet under in GS. Not sure at all. The GS under trend as a 10 plus fav is very strong but this match up is not that attractive for an under in the first half and maybe for game.
First quarter over?

 

[divol]

I like the Wizards here. They are 17 - 7 ATS as a road dog this season, they won at home as dogs against Portland and with LA probably out, Portland will be lucky to win SU...

 

[edou1x]

Play On - Any team vs the money line (WASHINGTON) off an upset loss as a road favorite, second half of the season
181-101 over the last 5 seasons. ( 64.2% | 60.8 units )
25-11 this year. ( 69.4% | 11.3 units )

 

[edou1x]

Why is there 4 games on thursdays instead of 2?
DO you know a reliable and quick update website for late NBA injuries?
is it on basketball reference that you can filter SU/ATS W/L for any team for a particular day of the week. If yes where exactly?
Thanks

 

[divol]

Why is there 4 games on thursdays instead of 2?
DO you know a reliable and quick update website for late NBA injuries?
is it on basketball reference that you can filter SU/ATS W/L for any team for a particular day of the week. If yes where exactly?
Thanks

http://killersports.com/nba.py/query_matrix?sid=guest

http://killersports.com/nba.py/query?sid=guest

One is easier to manage - second allows you more options.


For injuries I use combination of those three sites:
rotoworld.com/sports/nba/basketball
game.com/p/pregame-wire-injuries-steam.aspx
donbest.com/nba/injuries/

Usually they give the full info.

 

[CASH]

westbrook is game time decision tonight - fyi

 

[Paulie The Vig]

Why is there 4 games on thursdays instead of 2?
DO you know a reliable and quick update website for late NBA injuries?
is it on basketball reference that you can filter SU/ATS W/L for any team for a particular day of the week. If yes where exactly?
Thanks

http://www.rotoworld.com/teams/injuries/nba/all/

It updates itself later in the day. pretty reliable as much as the NBA is reliable. The NBA needs a rule change like the NFL regarding injuries. These last second he's not playing tonight is getting really stupid.

Here's the line-ups for tonight. Best to bet as late as possible this time of year.

http://www.rotowire.com/basketball/nba_lineups.htm

 

[edou1x]

On all the dogs ATS today and all unders except OKC-CLE

 

[BetCrimes1984]

This season Minnesota is 1-4 ATS in Game 2 in a set of b2b road games after winning the 1st game ATS, when the 2nd game was played at a different venue (they had 1 b2b road set vs. LAC & LAL, which obv. required no travel inbetween). Their only ATS win in a 2nd game required a 31-17 4th quarter win (as a +2 dog, they lost by 1 pt SU), and their avg 2nd half score from these 5 games has been 46-52.

-----

Houston @home facing a team playing b2b is 8-3-1 ATS/11-1 SU this season. When that team is from the WCf, they're 6-1-1 ATS/7-1 SU. They've already beaten Minny 112-101 in this spot in '13-14.

 

[Greencastle]

Why is there 4 games on thursdays instead of 2?
DO you know a reliable and quick update website for late NBA injuries?
is it on basketball reference that you can filter SU/ATS W/L for any team for a particular day of the week. If yes where exactly?
Thanks

The NBA has a contract with TNT which restrcits the amount of games played on Thursday nights to maximize exposure/ratings for TNT

There will be no TNT games tonight due to the NCAA Tourney

 

[BetCrimes1984]

Some interest in a half time bet under in GS. Not sure at all. The GS under trend as a 10 plus fav is very strong but this match up is not that attractive for an under in the first half and maybe for game.
First quarter over?

Not speaking to their game today specifically, but I'd expect based on the numbers a swing towards Overs for GS before the reg. season ends.

They're currently on a 19-6 Under run (76%), and when I notice any kind of total or ATS run north of 70% for a streak of games north than 20 (1/4+ of a reg. season's worth), I'm always suspicious of continuing to bet into the dominant result because of the expectation of a regression. Now what can/does offset that pov is in the situation where prior to such a results run the opposite result (to the present dominantn result) was itself so heavy that the current run can itself be viewed as a regression/righting of the ship (ie, a team on a 15-5 ATS run was prior to that run 15-30 ATS, meaning their overall mark would be 30-35: because they'd still be down ATS, the basis is their for their current positive run to keep growing since in doing so it'd still be making up ground on their still negative overall mark). But GS was 25-19 to Under (at 56.8%, a healthy enough rate) before their present strong Under run, so what's happened recently can in no way be viewed as itself a regression.

Looking at their coming (home) opponents -

MIL is 16-8 Over L24 (3 Unders going under the line by 1 basket), 17-9 Over L26 away.
SAS is 14-6 Over L20, 10-2 Over L12 away.
MEM is 10-5 Over L15 (4-4 L8 away).
NYK is 22-9 Over L31, 15-6 Over L21 away.

All have healthy Over rates going back a sizable amount of games. The opponents are on tap to underpin any such regression.

 

[edou1x]

This season Minnesota is 1-4 ATS in Game 2 in a set of b2b road games after winning the 1st game ATS, when the 2nd game was played at a different venue (they had 1 b2b road set vs. LAC & LAL, which obv. required no travel inbetween). Their only ATS win in a 2nd game required a 31-17 4th quarter win (as a +2 dog, they lost by 1 pt SU), and their avg 2nd half score from these 5 games has been 46-52.

-----

Houston @home facing a team playing b2b is 8-3-1 ATS/11-1 SU this season. When that team is from the WCf, they're 6-1-1 ATS/7-1 SU. They've already beaten Minny 112-101 in this spot in '13-14.

Rockets are 4-14 SU and ATS in games off a win of 30 or more points when facing a .500 or greater opponent.

2 revenge factor for Minny + probable letdown for HOU after big win against lowly jazz

 

[BetCrimes1984]

2 revenge factor for Minny + probable letdown for HOU after big win against lowly jazz

Nothing a particularly noteworthy about Minny's revenge spot from my pov. For example, the last time they played Houston (@ home) they were in the same revenge spot - off the 101-112 road loss their previous meeting: and they lost 89-107. Now if you were talking about 5-6-7+ straight losses, that would be something different from my pov. I'm all for revenge being an angle, but it has to be more substantial. Plus, they still have a home game vs. Houston to go. It's not like they don't know they have another chance remaining to exact whatever revenge they might feel necessary.

As for letdown spots, clearly Minny has had letdown issues in the 2nd of b2b road games this season when travel has been involved between venues. Which letdown spot gives way to which?

Finally, Minny is 3-12 ATS in their last 15 SU losses as a Dog, a lousy 20% covering rate. If I liked Minny here, I'd lump for their ml over taking the points - that covering rate spells out what reason to take them here ATS if you don't believe they can win SU, which is what they've failed 5 times out of 5 to do this season in the 2nd of b2b road games, most of the time facing teams with lesser home SU records than Houston (3rd best in the NBA). Underlining this aspect, is the fact the SU winner has won ATS in 9 of these 2 teams last 10 meetings. Only exception was when the Dog was catching 14.5 pts.