STATSYSTEMS SPORTS STAT/SHEETS, 2/20/14
NATIONAL BASKETBALL ASSOCIATION
INFORMATION WORTH BETTING ON EACH DAY
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***** Thursday, 2/20/14 NBA Information *****
(ALL RESULTS ATS) - Against The Spread - and most recent, unless noted otherwise. Each and every day during the 2013-14 National Basketball Association season we will analyze all of your daily basketball action, featuring all our Highly-Rated (Situational & Match-up) Power Trends, along with some of our Situational Analysis (Betting Systems) that pertain to some of that days match-ups.
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Betting Notes - Thursday
•Hot Teams
-- Oklahoma City won 15 of its last 17 games.
-- Heat won 11 of its last 14 game (3-1-1 vs. spread in last five).
-- Rockets won their last eight games (6-2 vs. spread).
•Cold Teams
-- Milwaukee lost 19 of its last 22 games.
-- Nuggets lost last five games, are 0-6 versus spread in last six.
-- Golden State split its last six home games.
•Totals
-- Six of last nine Milwaukee games went over total.
-- Four of last five Heat-Thunder games went over.
-- Seven of last ten Golden State games stayed under.
•Series Records
-- Nuggets won their last seven games with Milwaukee.
-- Thunder lost six of last seven games with Miami.
-- Rockets won 17 of last 20 games with Golden State.
•Situational Trends of The Day
-- HOUSTON is 13-2 ATS (+10.8 Units) after 4 straight games where they made 47% of their shots or better over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was HOUSTON 111.4, OPPONENT 101.0.
-- GOLDEN STATE is 10-1 UNDER (+8.9 Units) revenging a straight up loss versus opponent as a favorite this season.
The average score was GOLDEN STATE 100.9, OPPONENT 85.7.
-- MILWAUKEE is 9-26 (-19.6 Units) against the 1rst half line in a home game where the first half total is 100.5 to 105.5 over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was MILWAUKEE 52.1, OPPONENT 54.1.
-- HOUSTON is 45-19 UNDER (+24.1 Units) the 1rst half total after 2 straight games where they made 50% of their shots or better since 1996.
The average score was HOUSTON 48.8, OPPONENT 48.2.
-- SCOTT BROOKS is 10-0 OVER (+10.0 Units) in home games after 2 straight wins by 6 points or less as the coach of OKLAHOMA CITY.
The average score was BROOKS 106.7, OPPONENT 103.1.
•Matchup Trends of The Day
-- GOLDEN STATE is 11-1 ATS (+9.9 Units) versus teams who average 53 or more rebounds/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was GOLDEN STATE 107.7, OPPONENT 100.2.
-- GOLDEN STATE is 23-12 UNDER (+9.8 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 99+ points/game this season.
The average score was GOLDEN STATE 103.5, OPPONENT 97.5.
-- OKLAHOMA CITY is 51-32 (+15.8 Units) against the 1rst half line versus good 3 point shooting teams - making >=36% of their attempts over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was OKLAHOMA CITY 53.5, OPPONENT 49.4.
-- DENVER is 22-9 OVER (+12.1 Units) the 1rst half total versus poor defensive teams - allowing 99+ points/game this season.
The average score was DENVER 54.9, OPPONENT 56.0.
-- LARRY DREW is 10-34 ATS (-27.4 Units) versus explosive offensive teams - scoring 103+ points/game in all games he has coached since 1996.
The average score was DREW 94.4, OPPONENT 104.3.
•Situation Analysis of The Day
-- Play Against - Underdogs of +145 to +350 versus the money line (MILWAUKEE) - an average offensive team (92-98 PPG) against a horrible defensive team (>=102 PPG), after having covered 4 or 5 of their last 6 against the spread, a terrible team (<=25%) playing a team with a losing record.
(42-5 over the last 5 seasons.) (89.4%, +33.8 units. Rating = 4*)
The average money line posted in these games was: Team favored with a money line of: -164
The average score in these games was: Team 103.1, Opponent 93.8 (Average point differential = +9.3)
The situation's record this season is: (3-1, +1.5 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (21-3, +15.3 units).
Since 1996 the situation's record is: (170-50, +57.8 units).
-- Play On - Any team (OKLAHOMA CITY) - excellent shooting team (>=47.5%) against an poor defensive team (45.5-47.5%) after 42+ games, average rebounding team (+/-3 Reb/G) against a poor rebounding team (-3 to -5.5 Reb/G) - 42+ games.
(38-13 since 1996.) (74.5%, +23.7 units. Rating = 3*)
The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is : (44-8)
The average line posted in these games was: Team favored by 9.1
The average score in these games was: Team 111.8, Opponent 98.9 (Average point differential = +12.9)
The number of games in which this system covered the spread by 7 or more points was 23 (44.2% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (0-1).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (8-3).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (17-6).
-- Play Under - All teams where the total is 200 to 209.5 (MIAMI) - in a game involving two good excellent shooting teams (>=47%), in a game involving two average ball handling team (14.5-16.5 TO's) after 42+ games.
(30-8 since 1996.) (78.9%, +21.2 units. Rating = 3*)
The average total posted in these games was: 203.4
The average score in these games was: Team 97.7, Opponent 97.7 (Total points scored = 195.4)
The number of games in which this system covered the total by 7 or more points was 26 (61.9% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (0-2).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (8-2).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (10-2).
-- Play Against - Home favorites of 2 to 5.5 points versus the first half line (OKLAHOMA CITY) - extremely well rested team - playing 5 or less games in 14 days, after a road game where both teams score 100 or more points, a top-level team (>= 75%) playing a good team (60% to 75%).
(27-6 since 1996.) (81.8%, +20.4 units. Rating = 3*)
The average first half line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 3.4
The average first half score in these games was: Team 49.3, Opponent 49.2 (Average first half point differential = +0)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (3-0).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (5-0).
-- Play Over - Road teams where the first half total is 100.5 to 105 (DENVER) - poor defensive team - allowing 99+ points/game on the season against an extremely well rested team - playing 3 or less games in 10 days, after allowing 110 points or more 2 straight games.
(49-17 over the last 5 seasons.) (74.2%, +30.3 units. Rating = 3*)
The average first half total posted in these games was: 103.2
The average first half score in these games was: Team 51.8, Opponent 55.2 (Total first half points scored = 106.9)
The situation's record this season is: (10-3).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (16-5).
Since 1996 the situation's record is: (102-80).
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Thursday's Match-ups
#501 MIAMI @ #502 OKLAHOMA CITY
(TV: 8:00 PM EST, TNT - Line: Thunder -3.5, Total: 205.5) - The Miami Heat attempt to avenge a 17-point loss to Oklahoma City when they visit the Thunder in Thursday’s nationally televised showdown. Kevin Durant scored 33 points when Oklahoma City posted a 112-95 victory in Miami on Jan. 29 while LeBron James scored 34 for the Heat. The two leading MVP candidates figure to be primed for the rematch, while Thunder guard Russell Westbrook is a game-time decision to return from his latest knee surgery.
The Heat are wrapping up a six-game road trip and have won six of their last seven games after recording a 117-106 road victory over Dallas on Tuesday. James scored a season-best 42 points on 16-of-23 shooting for his 50th career 40-point outing and he is averaging 38.3 points over the last three contests. Oklahoma City is playing for the first time since the All-Star break concluded and possesses the top record in the NBA. Durant is averaging 40 points over the last three games, and his 43-point outing against the Los Angeles Lakers on Feb. 13 was his eighth such outing of the season.
•ABOUT THE HEAT (38-14 SU, 23-28-1 ATS): James is third in the NBA in scoring (26.8) – Durant leads at 31.5 – and has played spectacularly since a dismal 13-point outing in a loss to lowly Utah on Feb. 8. A surprise scoring contributor in the victory over Dallas was journeyman forward Chris Andersen, who scored a season-best 18 points on 7-of-9 shooting as Miami pulled within 2 1/2 games of Eastern Conference-leading Indiana. “From here on out, we’ve got to take care of business and try and get that first spot back,” Andersen said afterward.
•ABOUT THE THUNDER (43-12 SU, 32-23-0 ATS): Westbrook has missed the last 27 games and Oklahoma City has thrived without him, going 20-7 during the stretch. The star point guard originally hurt his knee in last season’s playoffs against the Houston Rockets and he has experienced two setbacks – both requiring additional surgery – this season. Westbrook practiced with the squad on Wednesday and it will be interesting to see if coach Scott Brooks handles Westbrook cautiously to avoid another setback. Durant has stepped up with 20 30-point outings during Westbrook’s latest absence.
•PREGAME NOTES: Miami had won six straight meetings – including the final four games of the 2012 NBA Finals – before losing to the Thunder last month.... Oklahoma City is 23-3 at home while Miami is 18-10 on the road.... The Heat are last in the NBA in rebounds per game (36.6) and third-to-last in rebounding margin (minus 3.9) while the Thunder have the best margin (plus 4.9).... Miami is 8-0 versus the spread in road games versus explosive offensive teams - scoring 103+ points/game over the last two seasons.... The Thunder are 15-5 against the spread versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game this season.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
--In 1000 simulated games, OKLAHOMA CITY covered the spread 548 times, while MIAMI covered the spread 452 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, OKLAHOMA CITY won the game straight up 629 times, while MIAMI won 342 times. In 1000 simulated games, 566 games went under the total, while 434 games went over the total. *EDGE against the total =UNDER.
--In 1000 simulated games, OKLAHOMA CITY covered the first half line 539 times, while MIAMI covered the first half line 429 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, 531 games went under first half total, while 469 games went over first half total. *No EDGE.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--OKLAHOMA CITY is 19-18 against the spread versus MIAMI since 1996.
--MIAMI is 21-17 straight up against OKLAHOMA CITY since 1996.
--21 of 36 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL since 1996.
--OKLAHOMA CITY is 20-17 versus the first half line when playing against MIAMI since 1996.
--19 of 37 games in this series have gone OVER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1996.
--Heat are 6-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings.
--Heat are 7-3 ATS in the last 10 meetings in Oklahoma City.
--Over is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings.
--Over is 9-2-1 in the last 12 meetings in Oklahoma City.
--Favorite is 7-3 ATS in the last 10 meetings.
--Home team is 7-3 ATS in the last 10 meetings.
•RECENT TRENDS
--Heat are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record.
--Heat are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
--Heat are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.
--Thunder are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record.
--Thunder are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.
--Thunder are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 when their opponent allows 100 points or more.
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#503 DENVER @ #504 MILWAUKEE
(TV: 8:00 PM EST, Altitude (Denver), FSN Wisconsin (Milwaukee) - Line: Nuggets -3.5, Total: 203) - The Denver Nuggets are playing like a team destined for a lottery pick of late, but perhaps a trip to face the league's worst team will help them turn things around. The Nuggets, who have lost their last five games by an average of 23 points, look to snap their skid when they visit the Milwaukee Bucks on Thursday. The Bucks snapped their own four-game slide with a 104-100 win over visiting Orlando on Tuesday.
The Nuggets squandered a seven-point lead in the fourth quarter against Phoenix and lost 112-107 in overtime on Tuesday but are still three games shy of their longest slide of the season — an eight-game skid from Dec. 17-Jan. 1. Denver is quickly slipping from playoff contention, sitting well behind Golden State and Dallas, who occupy the final two playoff spots in the West. The Bucks haven't won back-to-back games all season and have to go back to March 17-19 of last season for their last consecutive victories.
•ABOUT THE NUGGETS (24-28 SU, 22-30-0 ATS): Denver misses point guard Ty Lawson at the offensive end, as the catalyst has missed the past three games with a fractured rib and is not expected to play against Milwaukee. The Nuggets missed 19 of their last 21 shots from 3-point range against the Suns and finished 5-for-28 behind the arc, losing despite a career-high 25 points from Evan Fournier. The Nuggets' biggest concerns are at the defensive end, though, as they've allowed 100 or more points in 10 straight games and 15 of the last 16.
•ABOUT THE BUCKS (10-43 SU, 21-32-0 ATS): Milwaukee got hot from the outside against Orlando, as Caron Butler hit seven of the team's 12 3-pointers — one off the Bucks' season high. Guard O.J. Mayo has missed nine straight games as he works to regain his conditioning following a bout with the flu, but that has given coach Larry Drew a chance to give some of his younger players a little more run. Rookie guard Nate Wolters has started the past eight games, collecting 38 assists compared to six turnovers over that stretch.
•PREGAME NOTES: The Nuggets have won seven of the last 10 meetings in Milwaukee and 16 of the past 21 overall — including seven straight.... Bucks F John Henson has recorded at least one block in 19 consecutive games, one short of tying Roy Hibbert for the third-longest streak in the NBA this season.... Denver F Wilson Chandler has scored in double figures in 29 of his past 31 games.... Milwaukee is 19-33 against the spread versus teams who make six or more 3-point shots/game - 2nd half of the season over the last two seasons.... Denver is 1-10 versus the spread versus horrible foul drawing teams - attempting less than 21 free throws/game this season.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
--In 1000 simulated games, MILWAUKEE covered the spread 552 times, while DENVER covered the spread 448 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, DENVER won the game straight up 531 times, while MILWAUKEE won 446 times. In 1000 simulated games, 497 games went over the total, while 475 games went under the total. *No EDGE.
--In 1000 simulated games, MILWAUKEE covered the first half line 533 times, while DENVER covered the first half line 431 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, 522 games went over first half total, while 478 games went under first half total. *No EDGE.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--DENVER is 23-10 against the spread versus MILWAUKEE since 1996.
--DENVER is 22-12 straight up against MILWAUKEE since 1996.
--21 of 32 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL since 1996.
--DENVER is 21-11 versus the first half line when playing against MILWAUKEE since 1996.
--17 of 32 games in this series have gone OVER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1996.
--Nuggets are 5-2 ATS in the last 7 meetings.
--Over is 10-4 in the last 14 meetings.
--Over is 6-1 in the last 7 meetings in Milwaukee.
•RECENT TRENDS
--Nuggets are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games overall.
--Nuggets are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games playing on 1 days rest.
--Nuggets are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.
--Bucks are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games overall.
--Bucks are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 after allowing 100 points or more.
--Over is 8-2 in Bucks last 10 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
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#505 HOUSTON @ #506 GOLDEN STATE
(TV: 10:30 PM EST, TNT, CSN Houston - Line: Warriors -1, Total: 212.5) - The Houston Rockets are coming off one of the more impressive performances of the season and should be well-rested despite playing the second end of a back-to-back. The Golden State Warriors will attempt to slow the visiting Rockets on Thursday. Dwight Howard posted 20 points and 13 rebounds in a 134-108 win at the Los Angeles Lakers on Wednesday as all the starters sat out the fourth quarter.
Howard was playing against the Lakers in Los Angeles for the first time since leaving the team over the summer and seemed to delight in the boos he received while dunking emphatically every chance he got. The Warriors hope to have Andrew Bogut around to keep Howard away from the rim but the center is still day-to-day and missed his fifth straight on Wednesday with a shoulder injury. Golden State has traded wins and losses in six games this month as it toils at the bottom of the Western Conference playoff bracket.
•ABOUT THE ROCKETS (37-17 SU, 28-24-2 ATS): Houston’s eight-game winning streak is the longest current run in the NBA and has pushed the team into third place in the West. The 134 points scored on Wednesday marked a season high for the Rockets, who are averaging 112.1 points during the winning streak and hung 116 on the Warriors in their last trip to Golden State on Dec. 13. James Harden scored 26 points in that game and put up 29 points and 11 assists in the win over the Lakers.
•ABOUT THE WARRIORS (32-22 SU, 24-27-3 ATS): Golden State earned a 101-92 win at Sacramento on Wednesday in its first game since a crushing loss to the Miami Heat before the All-Star break. The time off seemed to do forward David Lee some good, as the former All-Star posted 23 points and 11 rebounds after dealing with a shoulder issue prior to the break. The Warriors have spent the first 54 games trying to find the right mix of players for the second unit and tinkered again on Wednesday by trading seldom-used guards Kent Bazemore and MarShon Brooks to the Los Angeles Lakers in exchange for veteran guard Steve Blake.
•PREGAME NOTES: Harden is 10-for-19 from 3-point range in his last three games.... Houston has taken three straight at Golden State and seven of the last eight in the series overall.... The Warriors hope to have Blake in uniform for the game on Thursday.... The Rockets are 35-21 versus the spread versus good 3-point shooting teams - making more than 36% of their attempts, including 19-6 ATS 2nd half of the season over the last two seasons.... Golden State is 11-1 against the spread versus teams who average 53 or more rebounds/game - 2nd half of the season over the last two seasons.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
--In 1000 simulated games, GOLDEN STATE covered the spread 576 times, while HOUSTON covered the spread 402 times. *EDGE against the spread =GOLDEN STATE. In 1000 simulated games, GOLDEN STATE won the game straight up 598 times, while HOUSTON won 384 times. In 1000 simulated games, 718 games went under the total, while 282 games went over the total. *EDGE against the total =UNDER.
--In 1000 simulated games, GOLDEN STATE covered the first half line 552 times, while HOUSTON covered the first half line 448 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, 645 games went under first half total, while 324 games went over first half total. *EDGE against first half total =UNDER.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--HOUSTON is 34-31 against the spread versus GOLDEN STATE since 1996.
--HOUSTON is 49-16 straight up against GOLDEN STATE since 1996.
--36 of 64 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL since 1996.
--HOUSTON is 32-30 versus the first half line when playing against GOLDEN STATE since 1996.
--37 of 64 games in this series have gone OVER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1996.
--Rockets are 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings.
--Rockets are 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings in Golden State.
--Over is 12-4 in the last 16 meetings in Golden State.
--Underdog is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings.
--Road team is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings.
•RECENT TRENDS
--Rockets are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record.
--Under is 5-1-1 in Rockets last 7 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
--Under is 4-1 in Rockets last 5 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.
--Over is 5-1 in Warriors last 6 Thursday games.
--Under is 5-1 in Warriors last 6 games playing on 0 days rest.
--Under is 3-1-1 in Warriors last 5 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
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#22
cracy
RX Junior
<dl class="userinfo_extra"><dt>Join Date</dt><dd>Jan 2014</dd><dt>Location</dt><dd>United States</dd><dt>Posts</dt><dd>85</dd></dl>
02-20-2014, 02:25 PM STATSYSTEMS SPORTS STAT/SHEETS, 2/20/14
NCAA COLLEGE BASKETBALL
INFORMATION WORTH BETTING ON EACH DAY
_________________________________________
***** Thursday, 2/20/14 NCAACB Knowledge *****
(ALL RESULTS ATS) - Against The Spread - and most recent, unless noted otherwise. Each and every day during the 2013-14 NCAA College Basketball season we will analyze all of your daily basketball action, featuring all our Highly-Rated (Situational & Match-up) Power Trends, along with some of our Situational Analysis (Betting Systems) that pertain to some of that days match-ups.
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Thursday's Notebook
•Memphis (-14) made 12-19 from arc, ran out to a 29-5 lead and crushed Rutgers 101-69 Feb 4 at home, but Tigers lost last two road games, at SMU/UConn. Memphis is 3-0 as a road favorite. Rutgers lost nine of its last 12 games- they got beat by 48 at Louisville in last game. Knights are 2-2 as home dogs, with home losses by 7-11-12 points. AAC home underdogs of 9+ points are 2-4 against spread.
•Michigan State won last five games versus Purdue, winning last two visits to Mackey Arena by 14-13 points; Spartans are just 3-4 last seven games, but are 6-0 versus spread on road, 4-0 as road favorites, with four five road wins by 14+ points. Big Dozen home underdogs of 5 or less points are 7-8 versus spread. Purdue won four of last five home games, but is 0-2 as a home underdog- their home losses were by 9-14 points.
•Green Bay's 7-1 C Brown sat out 75-60 (-2) home loss at Valparaiso on Jan 29; Crusaders shot 64% inside arc with Brown on bench- he's played 27+ minutes in every game since, with Phoenix winning four of the five, but they've failed to cover last four home games. Horizon home favorites of 8+ points are 7-9 versus spread. Valparaiso won seven of its last nine games, is 3-2 as road underdog, with only road losses by 5-19 points.
•UTEP won six of last seven games with Tulane, winning last three by 2-9-12 points, but they're 2-3 in last five visits here. Miners won nine of last 10 games overall, are 2-0 as road favorites- they covered eight of last 10 games. C-USA home underdogs of 6 or less points are 8-5 versus spread. Tulane won three of last four games, covered six of last eight- they've won their last three home games.
•Gonzaga (-8.5) beat BYU 84-69 Jan 25, making 10-22 from arc, 65.6% inside arc in Bulldogs' fifth straight series win- they split two visits to Provo, winning by 5 here LY. WCC home favorites of 3 or less points are 6-3 versus spread. Gonzaga won nine of last ten games, last four on road in WCC, but they lost last road game at Memphis. BYU won five of its last six games; they’re 7-0 SU at home in conference this season.
•Georgetown/Seton Hall split last six meetings; Pirates (+6.5) won 67-57 at Georgetown Jan 18, making 11-20 from arc in game they trailed by 9 at half. Seton Hall lost last three games overall and five of last six home games. Georgetown had 3-game win streak snapped last games- they're 2-4 on Big East road, winning at Butler/DePaul. Big East home teams are 8-6 versus spread if number was 3 or less points.
•Oregon State (-2.5) outscored Washington State 19-1 on foul line in 66-55 win at Pullman Jan 22, Beavers' second straight series win after losing five of six to Cougars before that. WSU won two of last three visits here; they lost last four games overall, are 1-5 as road dogs, with five of six losses on road by 18+ points. Pac-12 home favorites of 9+ points are 15-10 versus spread. Underdogs covered four of Beavers' five home games.
•St Mary's won its last 17 games versus San Francisco, winning last seven in this gym; Gaels split their last six games, are 4-3 on WCC on road, not as strong as usual- they beat Dons 88-73 (-9) at home Jan 11, making 11 of 21 from arc in game where both sides shot 59% inside arc. WCC home teams are 14-15 versus spread in games if spread was less than 5. Dons are 5-2 at home in WCC- they covered five of their last six games.
•USC lost its last five games, but covered last two on road; Trojans lost 79-71 (+6) in OT to Stanford Jan 26, making just 19-30 on line. USC is 5-3 in last eight series games, winning two of last three visits to Farm. Stanford won three of last four games, covered eight of last ten- they're 3-1 as home favorites, but lost two home games to Cal/Arizona. Pac-12 double digit home favorites are 12-9 versus spread.
•Connecticut (-12) made 12-23 from arc, beat Temple 90-66 at home Jan 21; Huskies won six of last seven games, are 2-1 as road favorites, winning road games by 10-11-20 points (3-3 SU). Owls upset SMU last game; they're 2-10 in AAC, 2-3 in last five games, 2-2 as home dogs, losing home games by 7-10-4-24 points. AAC home underdogs are 7-14 against spread. Six of last seven Temple losses are by 10+ points.
•Canisius won six of last eight games but lost last two at home; they won 86-74 (+2.5) at Quinnipiac Jan 25, holding Bobcats to 6-27 from the arc. Road team covered last six Canisius games; Griffins are still 5-3 as home favorites, despite losing last two. Quinnipiac won last four games, three by 8 or less points- they won last three road games, two in overtime. MAAC home favorites of 6 or less points are 12-14 versus spread.
•Duke won nine of last ten games, covered eight of last nine; Blue Devils are 9-2 in last 11 games versus North Carolina, winning three of last four in Dean Dome, with wins by 10-1-16 points. Tar Heels won/covered their last seven games, they won last five at home, are 0-2 as ACC underdogs. Duke is shooting 42% from arc in ACC; UNC holds teams to 31% on arc. ACC home teams are 10-19 versus spread if number was 4 or less points.
•Hawaii (+6) tied game with late trey, won 90-86 in OT at Irvine, Jan 25, in game where Anteaters' 7-6 center Ndiaye fouled out in only 22:00 on court. Teams split last four meetings; Irvine lost by 4 here LY. Big West home favorites of 4 or less points are 4-3 versus spread. Hawaii won three in row overall, are 3-2 as home favorites, winning at home by 31-14-9, losing to Long Beach/UCSB. Irvine won last four, allowing 54.8 ppg.
•Situational Trends of The Day
-- N ILLINOIS is 0-12 ATS (-13.2 Units) in home games after 2 straight games giving up 9 or less offensive rebounds over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was N ILLINOIS 57.7, OPPONENT 63.9.
-- E CAROLINA is 10-0 UNDER (+10.0 Units) after having lost 3 of their last 4 games over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was E CAROLINA 64.9, OPPONENT 61.8.
-- MARSHALL is 0-13 (-14.3 Units) against the 1rst half line after a game where they covered the spread over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was MARSHALL 27.8, OPPONENT 40.5.
-- DENVER is 31-8 UNDER (+22.2 Units) the 1rst half total after 5 straight games committing 14 or less turnovers since 1997.
The average score was DENVER 29.7, OPPONENT 26.7.
-- BRIAN WARDLE is 18-1 ATS (+16.9 Units) revenging a loss where opponent scored 75 or more points as the coach of WI-GREEN BAY.
The average score was WARDLE 67.8, OPPONENT 65.4.
•Matchup Trends of The Day
-- JACKSONVILLE ST is 12-0 ATS (+12.0 Units) versus good passing teams, averaging >=16 assists/game after 15+ games since 1997.
The average score was JACKSONVILLE ST 70.3, OPPONENT 71.0
-- UC-IRVINE is 14-2 UNDER (+11.8 Units) versus poor pressure defensive teams - forcing <=14 turnovers/game this season.
The average score was UC-IRVINE 67.3, OPPONENT 61.4.
-- E MICHIGAN is 11-1 (+9.9 Units) against the 1rst half line versus poor 3 point shooting teams - making <=31% of their attempts over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was E MICHIGAN 27.2, OPPONENT 23.5.
-- WEBER ST is 13-1 OVER (+11.9 Units) the 1rst half total versus poor rebounding teams - outrebounded by opponents by 4+ per game after 15+games since 1997.
The average score was WEBER ST 37.0, OPPONENT 32.6.
-- JOE SCOTT is 12-1 ATS (+10.9 Units) in home games versus good defensive teams - shooting pct defense of <=42% after 15+ games as the coach of DENVER.
The average score was SCOTT 69.7, OPPONENT 49.4.
•Situation Analysis of The Day
-- Play Against - Road underdogs with a money line of +135 to -155 (GONZAGA) – an excellent shooting team (>=47.5%) against a good shooting team (45-47.5%), good ball handling team (<=14.5 TO's) against a poor pressure defensive team (<=14.5 TO's).
(206-56 since 1997.) (78.6%, +106.3 units. Rating = 4*)
The average money line posted in these games was: Team favored with a money line of: -178
The average score in these games was: Team 72.5, Opponent 65.3 (Average point differential = +7.1)
The situation's record this season is: (39-12, +15.5 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (77-24, +32 units).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (117-32, +58.7 units).
-- Play On - Underdogs of 10 to 19.5 points (UC-RIVERSIDE) - a good rebounding team - giving up <=9 offensive rebounds/game on the season, revenging a close loss versus opponent of 3 points or less, off a road loss by 10 points or more.
(40-11 over the last 5 seasons.) (78.4%, +27.9 units. Rating = 4*)
The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is: (6-46 over the last 5 seasons.)
The average line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 13.4
The average score in these games was: Team 61.3, Opponent 71.6 (Average point differential = -10.3)
The number of games in which this system covered the spread by 7 or more points was 14 (26.9% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (18-7).
Since 1997 the situation's record is: (112-85).
-- Play Under - Home teams where the total is 129.5 or less (N ILLINOIS) - terrible shooting team (<=40.5%) against an excellent defensive team (<=40.5%), after beating the spread by 42 or more points total in their last five games, in a game involving two good ball handling team (<=14.5 TO's).
(35-9 over the last 5 seasons.) (79.5%, +25.1 units. Rating = 3*)
The average total posted in these games was: 122.6
The average score in these games was: Team 55.1, Opponent 61.3 (Total points scored = 116.4)
The number of games in which this system covered the total by 7 or more points was 26 (59.1% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (3-1).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (25-9).
Since 1997 the situation's record is: (50-32).
-- Play Against - Favorites of 2 to 5.5 points versus the first half line (NEBRASKA) - revenging a loss where team scored less than 60 points, in a game involving two average three point shooting teams (32%-36.5%), after 3 straight games - allowing a shooting pct. of 37% or less.
(26-4 over the last 5 seasons.) (86.7%, +21.6 units. Rating = 4*)
The average first half line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 2.9
The average first half score in these games was: Team 31.5, Opponent 28.7 (Average first half point differential = +2.8)
The situation's record this season is: (3-1).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (17-3).
Since 1997 the situation's record is: (43-24).
-- Play Against - All teams where the 1rst half line is +1.5 to -1.5 (TENNESSEE TECH) – a poor three point shooting team (<=32%) against a poor 3PT defense (>=36.5%) after 15+ games, after a game - allowing a shooting pct. of 55% or higher.
(30-6 since 1997.) (83.3%, +23.4 units. Rating = 4*)
The average first half line posted in these games was: Team favored by 0.2
The average first half score in these games was: Team 34.1, Opponent 30.4 (Average first half point differential = +3.6)
The situation's record this season is: (3-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (9-1).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (12-1).
-- Play Under - Home teams where the first half total is 70.5 to 75.5 (RUTGERS) - an average rebounding team (+/-3 Reb/G) against a good rebounding team (+3 to +6 Reb/G), after having lost 3 of their last 4 games, a bad team, winning 20% to 40% of their games on the season.
(85-32 since 1997.) (72.6%, +49.8 units. Rating = 4*)
The average first half total posted in these games was: 72.2
The average first half score in these games was: Team 33.7, Opponent 34.5 (Total first half points scored = 68.2)
The situation's record this season is: (11-7).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (15-9).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (35-14).
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Thursday's Match-ups
#519 MEMPHIS @ #520 RUTGERS
(TV: 7:00 PM EST, CBS Sports Network Line: Memphis -8, Total: 151.5) - Memphis has been outstanding in bounce-back games under coach Josh Pastner, and the 24th-ranked Tigers have a chance to exhibit that again when they travel to Rutgers for an American Athletic Conference game Thursday. The Tigers, who are coming off an 86-81 overtime defeat at Connecticut on Saturday, are 35-4 in games following a loss during Pastner's five-year tenure. Memphis is looking to sweep the season series after a 101-69 rout of the visiting Scarlet Knights on Feb. 4.
It's the conclusion of a brutal three-game stretch for Rutgers, which has lost to Southern Methodist (77-65) and Louisville (102-54) in its last two contests. The Scarlet Knights haven't knocked off a ranked team since beating No. 22 Pittsburgh on Jan. 5, 2013. The Tigers need to take advantage of a stretch of three straight games against the bottom half of the conference before rematches with Louisville and Cincinnati to begin March.
•ABOUT MEMPHIS (19-6 SU, 14-8-0 ATS, 8-4 AAC): The Tigers are on the cusp of their 14th straight 20-win season, but they've lost their last two road games. They boast one of the top point guards in the league in Joe Jackson (15 points, 4.6 assists), who is coming off a season-high 24-point effort against Connecticut, but they get balanced scoring with each starter averaging at least 8.2 points and reserve guard Michael Dixon Jr. chipping in 11.4 per game. Big man Shaq Goodwin (12.3 points, 6.6 rebounds) is having a solid sophomore campaign and put up 13 points in the first meeting despite playing only 18 minutes because of foul trouble.
•ABOUT RUTGERS (10-16 SU, 10-14-0 ATS, 4-9 AAC): The Scarlet Knights have had a rough time in conference play, but it can only improve from Sunday's 48-point drubbing at Louisville — the program's worst defeat since an 88-23 loss to Lehigh in 1907. Rutgers has struggled mightily to defend against quality opponents, allowing more than 100 points twice in its last four games including the last meeting with Memphis. The Scarlet Knights do boast a couple of solid offensive players in Myles Mack (15.6 points) and Kadeem Jack (14.2 points, 6.8 rebounds) but they'll have to be much better at the defensive end to have a shot at upsetting the Tigers.
•PREGAME NOTES: Memphis has not played in New Jersey since a contest at Seton Hall on Jan. 22, 1953.... The Tigers are 5-2 in games decided by single digits while the Scarlet Knights are 4-7 in such contests.... Mack needs five points to tie Steve Kaplan (1,146) for 25th on Rutgers' all-time list and 13 points to catch Bob Greacen (1,154) for 24th.... Rutgers is 0-6 against the spread versus very good teams - outscoring their opponents by 8+ points/game after 15+ games this season.... The Tigers are 13-3 Under versus teams who average six or less steals/game on the season over the last three seasons.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
--In 1000 simulated games, RUTGERS covered the spread 503 times, while MEMPHIS covered the spread 462 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, MEMPHIS won the game straight up 689 times, while RUTGERS won 294 times. In 1000 simulated games, 591 games went under the total, while 409 games went over the total. *EDGE against the total =UNDER.
--In 1000 simulated games, RUTGERS covered the first half line 545 times, while MEMPHIS covered the first half line 455 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, 532 games went under first half total, while 468 games went over first half total. *No EDGE.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--MEMPHIS is 1-0 against the spread versus RUTGERS since 1997.
--MEMPHIS is 1-0 straight up against RUTGERS since 1997.
--1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL since 1997.
--MEMPHIS is 1-0 versus the first half line when playing against RUTGERS since 1997.
--1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1997.
•RECENT TRENDS
--MEM is 7-1 ATS in their last 8 Thu. games.
--MEM is 7-1 ATS in their last 8 road games.
--MEM is 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games overall.
--RUTG is 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games overall.
--RUTG is 2-5 ATS in their last 7 Thursday games.
--Over is 10-1 in RUTG last 11 home games.
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#527 MICHIGAN ST @ #528 PURDUE
(TV: 7:00 PM EST, ESPN - Line: Michigan State -6, Total: 140) - Michigan State's previous eight games have been a virtual roller coaster - win, loss, win, loss, win, loss, win, loss. With five games left on their regular-season schedule, the 14th-ranked Spartans visit Purdue on Thursday in search of some much-needed consistency. "In evaluating everything, I would say that it's time for a sense of urgency, more than it is a sense of panic," said Michigan State coach Tom Izzo, whose team has dealt with significant injuries all season.
For instance, forward Branden Dawson (hand) will miss his eighth straight game Thursday and point guard Keith Appling (wrist) is now likely to miss the rest of the regular season. "I can’t worry about (him playing against) Purdue and Michigan," Izzo said of Appling, who averages 14.4 points and 4.7 assists. "You just have to worry about getting him healthy for the Big Ten Tournament and the NCAA Tournament.” Purdue, meanwhile, has won two of three following a four-game slide, including perhaps its most impressive win of the season in Saturday's 18-point triumph over Indiana.
•ABOUT MICHIGAN STATE (21-5 SU, 14-9-2 ATS, 10-3 Big Ten): This is a huge game for the Spartans as they close their regular season with three of their final four games against ranked opponents, including road matchups with two of their two biggest rivals, Michigan and Ohio State. Adreian Payne (16.3 points, 7.7 rebounds) is probably Michigan State's most reliable option at the moment, although his 11 points in Sunday's loss to Nebraska marked his fewest in the four games since he returned from a foot injury. Travis Trice, the primary fill-in for Appling, finished with three points and one assist against the Cornhuskers after averaging 12 points and four assists over the previous two games.
•ABOUT PURDUE (15-10 SU, 8-13-0 ATS, 5-7 Big Ten): The Boilermakers probably need to win five of their final six regular-season games just to have a shot at the NCAA Tournament, although an NIT bid is probably the more likely scenario at this point. Terone Johnson is the team's leading scorer at 12.2 points and a reliable 3-point shooter at 38 percent, but the senior guard is horrendous from the free-throw line. Johnson is just 54-of-94 from the charity stripe this season, including 0-of-9 over his last six games.
•PREGAME NOTES: Prior to his woeful stretch from the foul line, Johnson had been 12-of-14 over his previous three games.... In its last three defeats, Michigan State has scored 60, 58 and 51 points - an average of 56.3 per game.... Since shooting a combined 8-of-12 from 3-point range in back-to-back games last month, Spartans G Gary Harris is 10-of-41 from behind the arc.... The Spartans are 6-0 versus the spread in road games when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 80%) this season.... The Boilermakers are 6-0 against the spread in home games after having lost four or five of their last six games over the last three seasons.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
--In 1000 simulated games, PURDUE covered the spread 513 times, while MICHIGAN ST covered the spread 460 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, MICHIGAN ST won the game straight up 635 times, while PURDUE won 327 times. In 1000 simulated games, 613 games went over the total, while 358 games went under the total. *EDGE against the total =OVER.
--In 1000 simulated games, PURDUE covered the first half line 507 times, while MICHIGAN ST covered the first half line 445 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, 643 games went over first half total, while 357 games went under first half total. *EDGE against first half total =OVER.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--MICHIGAN ST is 18-13 against the spread versus PURDUE since 1997.
--MICHIGAN ST is 21-10 straight up against PURDUE since 1997.
--18 of 28 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL since 1997.
--PURDUE is 15-15 versus the first half line when playing against MICHIGAN ST since 1997.
--18 of 28 games in this series have gone UNDER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1997.
--Spartans are 5-0 ATS in the last 5 meetings.
--Spartans are 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings in Purdue.
--Over is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings.
--Under is 9-4 in the last 13 meetings in Purdue.
--Favorite is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings.
•RECENT TRENDS
--MSU is 7-1 ATS in their last 8 road games.
--MSU is 12-5 ATS in their last 17 games overall.
--Under is 41-20-1 in MSU last 62 road games.
--PUR is 2-5 ATS in their last 7 vs. Big Ten.
--PUR is 3-11-1 ATS in their last 15 Thu. games.
--Over is 8-3 in PUR last 11 Thu. games.
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#549 GONZAGA @ #550 BYU
(TV: 11:00 PM EST, ESPN2 - Line: BYU -1.5, Total: 151) - Brigham Young, currently projected to be a bubble team by most bracketologists, could take a big step forward in the NCAA Tournament pecking order with a win Thursday night against visiting Gonzaga. It will be the fifth time this season the Cougars get a shot at knocking off a ranked team, something they failed to do in the four previous chances against Iowa State, Wichita State, Massachusetts and Oregon. BYU's best win is over Texas, 86-82, which was unranked when the two teams played in November.
No. 22 Gonzaga clinched at least a share of the West Coast Conference title last Saturday with an 86-67 victory over Loyola Marymount, completing a perfect 15-0 home season. The Zags defeated BYU, 84-69, in the first meeting on Jan. 25 in Spokane. "Obviously, it is going to be a challenge, but we're excited for it," BYU guard Tyler Haws told the Salt Lake Tribune.
•ABOUT GONZAGA (23-4 SU, 13-11-1 ATS, 13-1 WCC): The Zags, who have won or shared 15 of the last 17 WCC championships, need to win one of their final four games or have BYU, San Francisco and Saint Mary's each lose once to claim the outright title and No. 1 seed for the WCC tournament in Las Vegas. Junior guard Kevin Pangos leads the team in scoring (15.2) and had 24 points, making 6-of-10 from 3-point range, in the first meeting. Junior forward Sam Dower Jr. (14.8) and 7-1 sophomore center Przemek Karnowski (10.2) give the Zags a strong inside game.
•ABOUT BRIGHAM YOUNG (18-10 SU, 10-15-0 ATS, 10-5 WCC): The Cougars come in off a 60-57 road victory at Saint Mary's to move into second place in the WCC, a half-game ahead of the Gaels and San Francisco, and hold the tie-breaker against both. Junior guard Haws is one of the nation's premier shooters, averaging a WCC-best 24.1 points while connecting on 44.2 percent of his 3-point shots. Guards Kyle Collinsworth (14.1) and Matt Carlino (13.5) and forward Eric Mika (12.3) also average in double figures.
•PREGAME NOTES: BYU is 12-1 at home this season and has won nine in a row since a 90-88 loss to Iowa State on Nov. 20.... Haws has 46 career 20-point games and 10 career 30-point games.... Pangos has 1,275 career points and needs 66 more to overtake John Stockton for 20th place on Gonzaga's all-time scoring list.... Gonzaga is 28-10 against the spread versus poor defensive teams - allowing 77+ points/game since 1997.... BYU is 4-13 versus the spread versus top caliber teams - outscoring their opponents by 12+ points/game over the last three seasons.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
--In 1000 simulated games, GONZAGA covered the spread 573 times, while BYU covered the spread 427 times. *EDGE against the spread =GONZAGA. In 1000 simulated games, GONZAGA won the game straight up 509 times, while BYU won 456 times. In 1000 simulated games, 638 games went over the total, while 343 games went under the total. *EDGE against the total =OVER.
--In 1000 simulated games, GONZAGA covered the first half line 552 times, while BYU covered the first half line 401 times. *EDGE against first half line =GONZAGA. In 1000 simulated games, 595 games went over first half total, while 378 games went under first half total. *EDGE against first half total =OVER.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--GONZAGA is 4-2 against the spread versus BYU since 1997.
--GONZAGA is 5-2 straight up against BYU since 1997.
--5 of 7 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL since 1997.
--GONZAGA is 4-3 versus the first half line when playing against BYU since 1997.
--6 of 7 games in this series have gone UNDER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1997.
--Bulldogs are 4-0-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings.
--Under is 5-0 in the last 5 meetings.
--Favorite is 6-0-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings.
--Home team is 6-0-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings.
•RECENT TRENDS
--GONZ is 8-3-2 ATS in their last 13 Thu. games.
--Under is 13-3 in GONZ last 16 road games.
--Under is 37-13-1 in GONZ last 51 vs. West Coast.
--BYU is 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games overall.
--BYU is 2-6 ATS in their last 8 vs. West Coast.
--BYU is 7-18-1 ATS in their last 26 Thu. games.
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#555 CONNECTICUT @ #556 TEMPLE
(TV: 9:00 PM EST, ESPN2 - Line: Connecticut -9.5, Total: 146) - Shabazz Napier continues to pull out amazing performances whenever Connecticut needs them most, and the senior star has his team enjoying a three-game winning streak. Napier and company will look to make it four in a row when the 21st-ranked Huskies visit Temple on Thursday. The Owls are trying to stay away from the basement in the American Athletic Conference and pulled off an impressive home victory over Southern Methodist on Sunday.
Temple is enduring a stretch against all of the top teams in the AAC and lost to Louisville before taking out the Mustangs. The Owls will have to deal with Memphis on Saturday and Louisville again next week as it searches for a third conference victory. Connecticut had little trouble with Temple on Jan. 21 as DeAndre Daniels exploded for a career-high 31 points and 12 rebounds and Napier contributed 27 points, seven boards and six assists in the 90-66 triumph.
•ABOUT CONNECTICUT (20-5 SU, 13-10-0 ATS, 8-4 AAC): The Huskies ensured themselves another week in the top 25 with an 86-81 overtime victory over Memphis on Saturday behind a career-high 34 points from Napier. The guard leads Connecticut in scoring (18) rebounding (5.8) and assists (5.5) while knocking down 42.1 percent of his attempts from 3-point range. “(Shabazz Napier) is a great player,” coach Kevin Ollie told reporters. “He’s an All-American player. I know I might be biased, but he’s the best guard in America to me, hands down. He just keeps focusing on the things we need to do to win.”
•ABOUT TEMPLE (7-17 SU, 9-12-1 ATS, 2-10 AAC): The Owls had surrendered an average of 83.9 points in the seven games prior to Sunday, when they successfully slowed the pace in the 71-64 triumph over SMU. Leading scorer Dalton Pepper, who matched a season low with seven points in the loss to Louisville, rebounded with a 24-point effort. Pepper was held to 12 points in the loss to Connecticut and Temple was outrebounded 45-25 while struggling to 4-of-19 from beyond the arc in the setback.
•PREGAME NOTES: The Huskies lead the AAC in 3-point percentage at .402 while the Owls are eighth at defending the 3-pointer, allowing opponents to shoot 35.5 percent.... Temple G Will Cummings scored 20 points in the first meeting and has reached double figures in nine straight.... Connecticut G Ryan Boatright scored a season-high 21 points against Memphis but is shooting 34.5 percent from the field over his last nine games.... The Owls are 37-15 versus the spread in home games versus good defensive teams - shooting percent defense of less than 42% after 15+ games since 1997.... The Huskies are 10-2 against the spread versus poor pressure defensive teams - forcing less than 14 turnovers/game after 15+ games over the last two seasons.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
--In 1000 simulated games, TEMPLE covered the spread 507 times, while CONNECTICUT covered the spread 493 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, CONNECTICUT won the game straight up 747 times, while TEMPLE won 239 times. In 1000 simulated games, 567 games went over the total, while 406 games went under the total. *EDGE against the total =OVER.
--In 1000 simulated games, TEMPLE covered the first half line 556 times, while CONNECTICUT covered the first half line 444 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, 618 games went over first half total, while 382 games went under first half total. *EDGE against first half total =OVER.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--CONNECTICUT is 1-0 against the spread versus TEMPLE since 1997.
--CONNECTICUT is 1-0 straight up against TEMPLE since 1997.
--1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL since 1997.
--CONNECTICUT is 1-0 versus the first half line when playing against TEMPLE since 1997.
--1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1997.
•RECENT TRENDS
--CONN is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 road games.
--CONN is 6-1 ATS in their last 7 Thursday games.
--Under is 4-1 in CONN last 5 Thursday games.
--TEM is 10-21 ATS in their last 31 home games.
--TEM is 0-5 ATS in their last 5 Thursday games.
--Over is 14-5 in TEM last 19 home games.
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#609 DUKE @ #610 N CAROLINA
(TV: 9:00 PM EST, ESPN - Line: Duke -2, Total: 151) - North Carolina and No. 6 Duke have had to wait an extra week for their ACC showdown as inclement weather postponed the originally scheduled meeting on Feb. 12, but both teams went 2-0 in the meantime and carry that momentum into Thursday's showdown at North Carolina. The Tar Heels will try to run their record to 4-0 against teams that opened the season ranked in the top four of the USA Today Top 25 Coaches Poll, as they've already knocked off No. 5 Louisville, No. 14 Michigan State and No. 16 Kentucky. A win likely would get North Carolina back into the Top 25 and, more importantly, keep it in the top four in the conference standings.
North Carolina has won seven in a row - the first five by double digits - to get back into the thick of the ACC race. Duke had its own five-game winning streak in conference play interrupted by a loss to top-ranked Syracuse on Feb. 1, but the Blue Devils have since reeled off four straight victories. Duke freshman Jabari Parker is averaging 22.2 points during the latest winning streak to boost his scoring average to 19.2.
•ABOUT DUKE (19-5 SU, 17-9-0 ATS, 8-3 ACC): Rodney Hood has been a nice compliment to Parker, but the 6-8 forward has hit his first rut of the season, shooting 14-of-45 from the floor in the last four games and failing to surpass his current scoring average of 16.2 points in the last six contests. Expect the Mississippi native to be extra focused for his first meeting with the Tar Heels. The other sophomore forward for Duke, Amile Jefferson, is up to 66.1 percent shooting this season after making 9-of-12 shots in the last three games.
•ABOUT NORTH CAROLINA (16-7 SU, 14-11-0 ATS, 6-4 ACC): James Michael McAdoo likely will get the task of trying to guard Hood or Jefferson at the outset. McAdoo wasn’t having any trouble with his offensive game for a while, reaching double figures in scoring in 17 straight contests before going scoreless in Monday's win over Florida State. McAdoo has lost three of his four career meetings with Duke, including both games on his home court, so look for a top-notch effort from the 6-9 forward.
•PREGAME NOTES: Duke entered Wednesday second in the nation in 3-point shooting percentage at 41.6.... North Carolina G Marcus Paige leads the ACC in free-throw shooting at 89.4 percent, though the Tar Heels are last as a team at 66.2.... The Tar Heels will be playing their third of four games in an eight-day span.... The Blue Devils are 13-4 against the spread versus good defensive teams - shooting percent defense of less than 42% this season.... UNC is 10-1 versus the spread in home games versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 4+ points/game after 15+ games over the last three seasons.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
--In 1000 simulated games, DUKE covered the spread 509 times, while N CAROLINA covered the spread 457 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, DUKE won the game straight up 578 times, while N CAROLINA won 391 times. In 1000 simulated games, 530 games went over the total, while 443 games went under the total. *No EDGE.
--In 1000 simulated games, DUKE covered the first half line 501 times, while N CAROLINA covered the first half line 446 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, 546 games went over first half total, while 416 games went under first half total. *EDGE against first half total =OVER.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--N CAROLINA is 21-17 against the spread versus DUKE since 1997.
--DUKE is 25-13 straight up against N CAROLINA since 1997.
--18 of 34 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL since 1997.
--N CAROLINA is 19-17 versus the first half line when playing against DUKE since 1997.
--18 of 34 games in this series have gone OVER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1997.
--Blue Devils are 6-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings in North Carolina.
--Under is 8-2 in the last 10 meetings.
--Under is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings in North Carolina.
--Road team is 22-8 ATS in the last 30 meetings.
•RECENT TRENDS
--DUKE is 5-0 ATS in their last 5 road games.
--DUKE is 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games overall.
--Over is 19-9 in DUKE last 28 Thu. games.
--UNC is 7-0 ATS in their last 7 vs. Atlantic Coast.
--Over is 7-2 in UNC last 9 overall.
--Over is 7-2 in UNC last 9 vs. Atlantic Coast.
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wins by 2 pts & 1 pt) this season playing a home game off an ATS win.
